Expedtied Form (Colonial NHP)

National Park Service
U.S. Department of the Interior
Social Science Program

Expedited Approval for NPS-Sponsored Public Surveys
1.

Project Title ⎢
Submission
Date:

2.

Abstract:

Transportation Study: Colonial National Historical Park

April 22, 2008

In 2004 Colonial National Historical Park initiated a demonstration shuttle service that
linked key visitor attractions in the area, including the Colonial Williamsburg Visitor
Center, Historic Jamestowne and Yorktown. The park plans to operate the service through
2010, and over the course of the next two years it will develop a business plan for the type
of service that will be sustainable after 2010. As part of the effort to develop a business
plan, a multi-year operations evaluation will be conducted, including the administration of a
visitor survey among users of the shuttle service. In order to make informed decisions
regarding the shuttle system, the park needs more information on how visitors are using the
service and their level of satisfaction with the service. A visitor survey conducted among
users of the shuttle system will provide valuable data for the business plan, in addition to
providing feedback that can be used to improve the service.
(not to exceed 150 words)

3.

Principal Investigator Contact Information
First Name:

Title:
Affiliation:

Street Address:
City:

4.

Last
Name:

Margaret

Petrella

Social Scientist
Volpe National Transportation Systems
Center
55 Broadway
Cambridge

Phone:

617.494.3582

Email:

[email protected]

State
:
Fax:

Zip
code:

MA

617.494.2787

Park or Program Liaison Contact Information
First Name:

Title:

Dorothy
Landscape Architect

Park:

Colonial National Historical Park

Park
Office/Division
:

National Capital Regional Office

Last
Name:

Geyer

02142

Street Address:
City:

Project

10815 George Washington Highway
State
:

Yorktown

Phone:

757.898.2433

Email:

[email protected]

Fax:

Zip
code:

VA

23690

757.898.7856

Information

5.

Park(s) Where
Research is to be
Conducted:

Colonial National Historical Park

6.

Survey Dates:

7/10/09

7.

Type of Information Collection Instrument (Check ALL that Apply)

8.

‰

Mail-Back
Questionnaire

‰

Other (explain)
Survey
Justification:
(Use as much space
as needed; if
necessary include
additional
explanation on a
separate page.)

(mm/dd/yyyy)

X On-Site
Questionnaire

‰

to

Face-toFace
Interview

7/13/09

‰

(mm/dd/yyyy)

Telephone
Survey

‰

Focus
Groups

Social science research in support of park planning and management is mandated in the
NPS Management Policies 2006 (Section 8.11.1, “Social Science Studies”). The NPS
pursues a policy that facilitates social science studies in support of the NPS mission to
protect resources and enhance the enjoyment of present and future generations
(National Park Service Act of 1916, 38 Stat 535, 16 USC 1, et seq.). NPS policy
mandates that social science research will be used to provide an understanding of park
visitors, the non-visiting public, gateway communities and regions, and human
interactions with park resources. Such studies are needed to provide a scientific basis
for park planning, development, operations, management, education, and interpretive
activities.
This is a survey of users of the shuttle system at Colonial NHP. Colonial NHP began a
demonstration shuttle service in 2004 (with service limited to two-hour headways) and
expanded the service in 2005 (to hourly headways). Full service operation began in
April 2006. NPS management at Colonial NHP wishes to learn how visitors learned
about the shuttle system and what motivated them to use it, how they use the shuttle
system (e.g., where they park to access the system, how many segments of the system
are utilized by an individual user, what attractions are visited by use of the system), and
what are users’ positive and negative reactions to the service. The user survey will
provide critical input to development of an operations and business plan which will
help guide NPS management to make a decision to sustain the existing shuttle system,
modify the shuttle system, or terminate the shuttle system when earmarked money runs
out in 2010.
To date, Colonial NHP has not conducted systematic survey research to obtain
feedback from shuttle users, and so data does not exist to address the research
questions. In developing the survey, the Volpe research staff reviewed the previous
studies conducted at Colonial National Historical Park, including a 2001 Visitor Study
(The Visitor Services Project, Report #126) and the ATS Feasibility Study (2004).
The 2001 Visitor Study conducted by the NPS Visitor Services Project surveyed
visitors at the Jamestown Visitor Center parking lot and the Glasshouse parking lot.
Visitors were asked to complete the survey either during or after their visit and to return
it by mail. The study provided data on visitor demographics, trip and visit
characteristics, individual activities and use of park resources, and evaluations of park
services.

As part of its Alternative Transportation System Feasibility Study, a Colonial NHP
visitor survey was conducted in 2002 (a mail survey). The purpose of this stated
preference survey was to identify the key factors influencing the choice of bus use by
visitors to the area and to use that information to estimate potential demand for these
services. In the survey, respondents were presented with three scenarios describing
various combinations of travel and wait time, user cost, and other service options for
travel by auto and shuttle bus and asked to choose auto or transit as the preferred mode
of travel. The study found that a Parkway Shuttle was likely to achieve a 15-25 percent
visitor capture rate, while a properly designed internal loop road shuttle was likely to
attract 40-50 percent of total loop road users. Results of the survey were also used to
inform the development of marketing strategies for the service.
Visitor surveys at Colonial NHP have been conducted prior to the start of the shuttle
service, but to date there has not been a systematic survey of shuttle users. The current
survey is a critical component of an effort to evaluate the overall service and to develop
a business plan to determine the type of service that is sustainable beyond 2010.

9.

Survey Methodology:
(Use as much space
as needed; if
necessary include
additional
explanation on a
separate page.)

(a) Respondent universe:
Because the main purpose of the survey is to provide feedback on the shuttle service,
the respondent universe consists of all visitor groups who used the shuttle system
during their visit to Colonial NHP. The shuttle system consists of three separate
segments: 1. shuttle service between Colonial Williamsburg and Yorktown battlefield
(Yorktown Historic Triangle Shuttle); 2. shuttle service between Colonial
Williamsburg and Jamestowne (Jamestown Historic Triangle shuttle); and 3. shuttle
service within the Jamestowne area (Jamestown Area shuttle). The respondent
universe will include user groups (adults age 18+) of any or all of these three segments
during the survey period.
(b) Sampling plan/procedures:
The procedures for sampling will include the selection of a four-day block (including a
Saturday and Sunday and two weekdays) during the peak tourist season at the end of
June or in July 2009. The timing of the survey will capture different types of visitors,
such as one-day weekday visitors, weekend visitors, as well as visitors who are in the
area for a longer period of time. Administrative and cost constraints require that the
sampled days be a block of contiguous days.
Because of the design of the shuttle system, the survey will be administered at several
different venues. Since users could conceivably ride one segment of the system without
using the other two segments, it is necessary to sample all three segments – the
Jamestown Historic Triangle shuttle (HTS), the Yorktown Historic Triangle Shuttle
(HTS) and the Jamestown Area shuttle -- to ensure adequate representation of each
segment.
Ideally, sampling frame segments should be non-overlapping to avoid the possibility of
sampling the same unit twice. In the case of Colonial NHP this is not possible, as users
of one segment of the service may have used other segments of the service. An
introductory screening question will be used at all venues to assure that the sample unit
is not double-sampled, and the survey form will include a statement indicating that
visitor groups should only complete one survey during their visit to Colonial NHP.
At the Jamestown Visitor Center and the Yorktown Visitor Center, interviewers will be
located at the boarding site for the Historic Triangle shuttle. Once visitors board the
bus for their return visit to Colonial Williamsburg, the interviewer will board the bus
and ask visitors to complete the survey during the bus ride. Visitors will be told that will
be another interviewer at Colonial Williamsburg who will collect the surveys as they
disembark.

Because it is possible to drive to Jamestown and ride the Jamestown Area shuttle, it is
necessary to have a separate intercept location for the Jamestown Area shuttle. In this
way, the survey will be able to measure the proportion of Jamestown Area shuttle users
who drove to Jamestown versus the proportion who took the Historic Triangle shuttle to
Jamestown. Visitors will be intercepted as they disembark from the Jamestown Area
Shuttle at the visitor center. The interviewers will intercept every othergroup exiting the
shuttle (sampling interval = 2). Groups that refuse to participate will be replaced by the
next group.
At all three survey locations, the eligible visitor in the group who has the next birthday
will be asked to complete the survey.
Ridership data for 2006 was analyzed in order to determine the peak visitation weeks.
The season considered ran from July 1-October 31, consisting of 121 days (excluding
the two days in September when the System shut down due to Hurricane Ernesto). (The
level and pattern of ridership data for 2007 is considered anomalous because of the 400th
anniversary special events and was therefore not used in this analysis.)
The pattern of ridership was bimodal, with peak levels occurring in July and
mid-September to mid-October. An analysis of 2008 ridership data also shows higher
usage in late June and July, relative to other months of service operation. Therefore, the
survey will be administered in July, when user ridership levels are high.
At Colonial Williamsburg the bus operates from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. for each of the
survey days that will be included in the sampling frame. This includes a total of 13 bus
runs each day for the Jamestown HTS and 13 bus runs for the Yorktown HTS. For the
Jamestown Area Shuttle, service is provided approximately every 15 minutes, starting
at 9:00 am through 5:00 pm, for a total of approximately 32 bus runs.
For each bus run of the Historic Triangle Shuttle, an adult from each visitor group that
has boarded the shuttle returning to Colonial Williamsburg will be sampled using the
next-birthday selection method.
According to the 2008 ridership numbers, average daily ridership for each leg of the
service was as follows:
Jamestown HTS: 256
Yorktown HTS: 125
Jamestown Area Shuttle: 276
Over a four-day survey period in July, the total number of riders on the Jamestown HTS
would be approximately 1024 (4 x 256). Assuming an estimate of three people per
visitor group, the expected pool of potential survey groups would be 341.
Over a four-day survey period in July, the total number of riders on the Jamestown
Area Shuttle is 1104. For each bus run, new riders are counted as they board at each of
the four stops, so any given rider will be counted multiple times, depending on how
many stops he or she makes. In consultation with park staff, we determined it was fair
to assume that each person makes 2.5 stops (out of a possible 4 stops). This results in
an estimate of 442 riders. However, based on conversations with park staff and bus
drivers, the study team learned that a number of visitors who use the Jamestown Area
Shuttle have parked at Jamestown Island (e.g., did not arrive via the HTS). Assuming
that half parked at Jamestown Island (and therefore represent unique riders who could
not be intercepted on the HTS), this would result in 221 visitors. Assuming 3 persons
per group, the expected pool of unique visitor groups who use the Jamestown Area
Shuttle is 74.
There are no data to indicate how many riders of the Yorktown HTS also ride the
Jamestown HTS (and vice versa). Of the 125 average daily riders of the Yorktown HTS,
we conservatively estimate that only one-third are unique riders who will not ride the

the Jamestown HTS, resulting in 42 potential survey respondents. Assuming 3 persons
per group, the total number of estimated visitor groups using the Yorktown Shuttle
(who will not be intercepted on the Jamestown HTS) is 14. If the separate visitor groups
using each leg of the service are combined, the total estimated respondent pool is
429 (341+ 74+14).
(c) Instrument administration:
Staff from the Volpe National Transportation System Center (Volpe Center) will act as
surveyors throughout the survey period. At each of the three intercept sites, surveyors
will distribute surveys to a randomly selected adult from each visitor group contacted.
For Jamestown Area Shuttle Users, interviewers will intercept riders as they are
disembarking from the shuttle. Drivers will provide a quick advance communication
informing passengers on the bus of the purpose of the survey. This will be provided
prior to the bus arriving at the Jamestowne Visitor Center.
To capture riders of the Historic Triangle Shuttle, interviewers will be stationed at the
HTS shuttle stops at the Jamestown Visitor Center and the Yorktown Visitor Center.
The interviewers will intercept riders once they have boarded the bus for their return trip
to Colonial Williamsburg. Interviewers will explain to all bus riders:
"Good morning/afternoon. The National Park Service is conducting a brief survey
regarding your experience on the shuttle service today. The survey is voluntary, and is
being conducted to help improve transportation services at Colonial National Historical
Park. You can complete the survey on the bus ride back to the Colonial Williamsburg
Visitor Center. The survey takes just a few minutes, and all responses are anonymous.
When you get off the bus at Williamsburg, an interviewer will be waiting to collect your
surveys and to answer any questions you may have. As I hand out the surveys, please let
me know if you have already taken a survey at another time this weekend.
[INTERVIEWER WALKS DOWN BUS AISLE ASKING VISITORS IF THEY
WOULD BE WILLING TO PARTICPATE AND HANDING OUT SURVEYS]
"When you disembark, please leave the clipboard and pencils in the basket at the front of
the bus. Thank you."
The intercept location for the Jamestown Area Shuttle will have clipboards and pencils
for accommodating respondents who fill out the survey. Likewise, there will be
clipboards and pencils available on the buses. Limited financial resources preclude the
use of a business reply mail-back option for the survey, but as the time needed to
complete the survey is approximately 5 minutes, lack of a mail-back option is not
expected to affect the response rate.
(d) Expected response rate/confidence levels:
Based on prior experience at Colonial NHP with the 2001 Colonial National Historical
Park-Jamestown Island Visitor Study (OMB #1024-0224 NPS #01-011) the expected
response rate is 75% percent. The expected number of potential respondents over the
four survey days is approximately 322 (75 percent of the expected 429 visitor groups on
the bus runs). This number will permit the survey to provide estimates of proportions
with precision of +/- 4.3 percentage points with 95 percent confidence.
(e) Strategies for dealing with potential non-response bias: Non-response will be tested
by comparing characteristics of the sample population with selected observable
characteristics of non-respondents. The date, time, and group characteristics of
passengers refusing the survey will be recorded and reported on a survey log. The
results of the check for non-response bias will be reported, and the implications of nonresponse bias (if any) for park planning will be discussed.

(f) Description of any pre-testing and peer review of the methods and/or instrument
(recommended):
NPS staff conducted a small pre-test on April 13, 2008. The surveyors asked four
visitors to participate and obtained completed surveys for all four respondents. The
average survey length for the four respondents was 5 minutes. In the debriefing,
respondents reported they had no questions or problems completing the questionnaire.
A site visit was conducted to Colonial NHP on October 9-11, 2008 to observe the
shuttle system in operation and to assess the appropriateness of the planned survey
methodology. Based on findings from the site visit, the research team made a slight
adjustment to the methodology. Originally, interviewers were going to intercept shuttle
users at the Colonial Williamsburg Visitor Center, upon their return from either
Jamestown or Yorktown. However, the space at the Colonial Williamsburg shuttle stop
is rather tight and is not conducive to administering a survey, so the study team decided
that respondents could complete the survey during their return trip to the Colonial
Williamsburg Visitor Center (a 15-18 minute shuttle ride). In addition, a few
adjustments were made to the survey instrument.

10.

Total Number of
Initial Contacts |
Expected
Respondents:

13.

Reporting Plan:

429

322

1
1
.

Estimated Time
to Complete
Initial Contact
| Instrument
(mins.):

0.25.

5

12
.

Total
Burden
Hours:

29

The survey results will be analyzed and a formal final technical report will be prepared
for Colonial NHP. In particular, Colonial NHP is interested in learning the sites that
shuttle users access, how they learned about the shuttle service, what motivated them to
ride the shuttle, and their satisfaction with different aspects of the service. Subgroup
analysis will be performed on these key questions to assess differences by type and size
of personal group, and by first time versus previous visitors. A copy of the formal
technical report will be archived with the NPS Social Science Program. The results of
the survey will be used to inform the business operations plan.

Daigle, John J. and Byung-kyu Lee, “Passenger Characteristics and Experiences with the Island Explorer Bus,” University of
Maine Parks, Recreation and Tourism Program, 2000.
National Park Service and PriceWaterhouseCoopers, ”Washington D.C. Visitor Transportation Survey,” 2003.
Simmons, Todd and Margaret Littlejohn, “Colonial National Historical Park- Jamestown Island Visitor Study,” Visitor
Services Project, Report 126 (March 2002).
URS Corporation and Cambridge Systematics, “Alternative Transportation System Study, Phase Two Final Report, Colonial
National Historical Park,” Prepared for the National Park Service (March 2004).