Supporting Statement - Part B.wpd

Supporting Statement - Part B

U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Census Bureau

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders (M3) Supplement:

Unfilled Orders Benchmark Survey

(Form MA-3000)

OMB Control No. 0607-0561

B. Collection of Information Employing Statistical Methods

1. Description of Universe

The universe is defined as consisting of all domestic companies with one or more manufacturing establishments classified in the Major Manufacturing Activities List (MA-3000-I) in Appendix A. Companies with no establishments classified in these categories are excluded from the universe. Companies with fewer than five employees are not included in the target population.

2. Sampling Methodology and Estimating Procedure

The Census Bureau’s final 2006 Business Register is the source of the sample frame. The sample frame will be comprised of company by M3 category records. A company with activity in multiple categories will have multiple records. Each company by M3 category record will represent the combined activity of all establishments classified within the category. Each company by M3 category record will be assigned a probability of selection that is commensurate with its relative importance (based on value of shipments) within the M3 category and the relative importance of the M3 category. Consequently, a company with activity in multiple M3 categories will be assigned multiple probabilities. A company will be assigned a final probability equal to the maximum of its individual category probabilities. The sample will be comprised of approximately 6,000 companies.

Unfilled orders benchmark estimates for each category code will be derived. Respondent sample weights will be adjusted to account for unit non-response in the survey. A simple weighted estimate of unfilled orders will be derived for each category using these adjusted sample weights. The unfilled orders estimates will then be adjusted based on the difference between the estimate of 2006 shipments from the UFO Benchmark Survey and the corresponding estimate of shipments from the 2006 ASM. Each category will be adjusted separately.

3. Efforts to Maximize Response

An unfilled orders benchmark survey has not been conducted since 1999. An expected response rate of at least 80 percent can be predicted based on the experience with more current mandatory surveys. There will be dedicated efforts to maximize response. Companies that do not respond to the survey will receive a follow-up letter. A duplicate form is sent out with the follow-up letter. Subsequently, the Census Bureau will conduct telephone follow-up during the third month following mail-out of the original report form to obtain the data by telephone and/or urge the respondent to return the form with the data, or to document why the form was not completed. All report forms will be reviewed and evaluated for any comments and suggestions made by the respondents to improve the survey results.

4. Tests of Procedures or Methods

Periodically, the Census Bureau staff interviews survey respondents to assess our data requests and to keep abreast of the current record keeping practices and changes in technology.

5. Contacts for Statistical Aspects and Data Collection

Person responsible for statistical methodology:

Paul Hsen, Assistant Division Chief

Research and Methodology

Manufacturing and Construction Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(301) 763-4586

Person responsible for data collection:

Chris Savage, Chief

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders Branch

Manufacturing and Construction Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(301) 763-4832

List of Appendices

Appendix A. Proposed MA-3000 Form, Instructions, and Major Manufacturing Activities List (MA-3000(I))

Appendix B. Initial Mail-out and Follow-up Letters