Publication - Advance Report on Durable Goods

Appendix C

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2008, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
Chris Savage or Jessica Young
Manufacturing and Construction Division
(301) 763-4832

M3-1 (08)-11
CB08-190

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders
November 2008
New Orders

Inventories

New orders for manufactured durable goods in
November decreased $1.8 billion or 1.0 percent to
$186.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced
today. This was the fourth consecutive monthly
decrease and followed an 8.4 percent October decrease.
Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2
percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.9
percent.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in
November, up sixteen of the last seventeen months,
increased $1.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $342.9 billion.
This was at the highest level since the series was first
stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.4
percent October increase.

Transportation equipment, down three of the last four
months, had the largest decrease, $3.5 billion or 7.4
percent to $44.3 billion. This was led by nondefense
aircraft and parts, which decreased $3.4 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in
November, down four consecutive months, decreased
$5.3 billion or 2.6 percent to $195.9 billion. This
followed a 3.4 percent October decrease.
Transportation equipment, down three of the last four
months, had the largest decrease, $1.7 billion or 3.5
percent to $46.4 billion.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in
November, down two consecutive months, decreased
$5.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $815.6 billion. This
followed a 0.9 percent October decrease.
Transportation equipment, down two consecutive
months, had the largest decrease, $2.1 billion or 0.5
percent to $468.0 billion.

Transportation equipment, up twenty-two of the last
twenty-three months, had the largest increase, $2.4
billion or 2.7 percent to $92.6 billion.
Capital Goods
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November
decreased $0.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $63.0 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $64.0
billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.0 billion or 0.2
percent to $480.0 billion. Inventories increased $1.3
billion or 0.9 percent to $143.1 billion.
Defense new orders for capital goods in November
increased $0.6 billion or 7.8 percent to $8.4 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.3 billion or 3.6 percent to $8.9
billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.4
percent to $141.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.3
billion or 1.4 percent to $19.5 billion.
Revised October Data
Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all
manufacturing industries were: new orders, $404.0
billion (revised from $407.4 billion); shipments, $416.5
billion (revised from $417.7 billion); unfilled orders,
$820.8 billion (revised from $823.1 billion); and total
inventories, $555.5 billion (revised from $555.1 billion).

Figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor
manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to .
Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on January 6, 2009, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The
advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for release on January 29, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page for
survey description and 2009 release dates.

2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders
[Millions of Dollars]
Monthly

Seasonally Adjusted
Percent Change

Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly

1

Year to Date

Item
Nov
2008 2

Oct
2008 r

Sep
2008

Oct 2
Nov

Sep Oct r

Aug Sep

Nov
2
2008

Oct
2008 r

Nov
2007

2008

2007

Percent
Change
08/07

DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments………………………….
4
New Orders …………………………

195,903
186,883

201,228
188,720

208,240
206,034

-2.6
-1.0

-3.4
-8.4

0.0
0.0

183,926
172,317

208,636
192,534

208,074
209,130

2,306,512
2,279,325

2,354,816
2,379,052

-2.1
-4.2

Excluding transportation:
Shipments………………………….
4
New Orders …………………………

149,485
142,593

153,146
140,898

157,413
151,225

-2.4
1.2

-2.7
-6.8

-0.7
-1.9

139,382
130,503

157,515
143,662

150,836
145,400

1,734,632
1,686,051

1,715,820
1,677,352

1.1
0.5

Excluding defense:
Shipments………………………….
4
New Orders …………………………

184,202
175,908

189,149
177,541

196,044
190,343

-2.6
-0.9

-3.5
-6.7

-0.3
-1.7

171,889
161,745

196,734
181,215

198,073
201,455

2,179,280
2,150,093

2,251,685
2,279,379

-3.2
-5.7

Manufacturing with unfilled orders:
Shipments………………………….
4
New Orders …………………………

140,852
135,742

144,327
136,855

150,543
152,239

-2.4
-0.8

-4.1
-10.1

0.1
-0.3

132,207
124,206

147,043
137,271

144,624
151,262

1,653,591
1,680,477

1,639,220
1,722,745

0.9
-2.5

Primary metals:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

18,366
16,376

19,869
16,861

22,260
20,113

-7.6
-2.9

-10.7
-16.2

-3.7
-5.9

16,153
14,296

20,626
16,942

19,060
19,784

241,903
234,496

223,971
223,236

8.0
5.0

Fabricated metal products:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

27,519
26,726

27,568
26,634

27,848
27,470

-0.2
0.3

-1.0
-3.0

-0.3
-0.9

25,464
23,632

28,891
27,371

25,900
25,538

307,213
305,630

302,570
305,625

1.5
0.0

Machinery:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

29,075
28,539

28,492
27,404

30,105
30,643

2.0
4.1

-5.4
-10.6

4.0
0.2

26,010
25,233

28,735
28,161

25,941
26,647

319,405
332,944

302,948
312,811

5.4
6.4

Computers and electronic products:
Shipments………………………….
4
New Orders …………………………

29,936
27,140

31,257
25,624

30,574
26,949

-4.2
5.9

2.2
-4.9

-2.3
-2.5

28,953
25,616

31,260
24,657

32,427
25,989

345,290
293,426

348,767
294,840

-1.0
-0.5

Computers and related products:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

4,255
4,805

4,623
4,289

4,703
4,723

-8.0
12.0

-1.7
-9.2

-1.3
-2.5

3,856
4,406

4,648
4,314

5,227
5,295

53,572
53,995

58,175
58,253

-7.9
-7.3

Communications equipment:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

5,728
5,691

5,459
5,692

5,649
5,270

4.9
0.0

-3.4
8.0

2.5
-15.1

5,877
5,335

4,719
5,203

5,641
4,842

61,599
62,206

61,005
62,013

1.0
0.3

Semiconductors:
Shipments………………………….
4
New Orders …………………………

3,910
(NA)

5,036
(NA)

3,902
(NA)

-22.4
(NA)

29.1
(NA)

-14.3
(NA)

3,608
(NA)

6,330
(NA)

5,582
(NA)

54,073
(NA)

59,289
(NA)

-8.8
(NA)

Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

9,667
9,094

10,341
9,069

10,527
10,190

-6.5
0.3

-1.8
-11.0

-0.3
-1.1

9,187
8,427

10,601
9,331

10,340
10,225

116,144
115,417

116,876
118,498

-0.6
-2.6

Transportation equipment:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

46,418
44,290

48,082
47,822

50,827
54,809

-3.5
-7.4

-5.4
-12.7

2.1
5.5

44,544
41,814

51,121
48,872

57,238
63,730

571,880
593,274

638,996
701,700

-10.5
-15.5

Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

29,556
29,189

29,525
29,262

31,131
30,828

0.1
-0.2

-5.2
-5.1

3.2
2.4

27,492
27,272

33,257
32,821

38,391
38,801

362,178
359,594

446,501
444,346

-18.9
-19.1

Nondefense aircraft and parts:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

6,178
5,610

6,862
9,003

7,695
9,866

-10.0
-37.7

-10.8
-8.7

-5.4
28.8

6,172
5,344

6,284
6,118

9,114
17,709

86,575
110,517

90,946
156,026

-4.8
-29.2

Defense aircraft and parts:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

4,423
4,772

4,757
5,356

5,201
5,839

-7.0
-10.9

-8.5
-8.3

10.5
12.5

4,617
5,010

4,683
5,166

3,479
2,831

49,913
52,672

35,762
32,776

39.6
60.7

All other durable goods:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

34,922
34,718

35,619
35,306

36,099
35,860

-2.0
-1.7

-1.3
-1.5

-1.7
-1.9

33,615
33,299

37,402
37,200

37,168
37,217

404,677
404,138

420,688
422,342

-3.8
-4.3

Capital goods:3
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

72,981
71,464

73,699
71,341

76,747
80,062

-1.0
0.2

-4.0
-10.9

1.2
1.9

68,742
65,845

72,746
69,583

72,842
79,247

828,096
861,557

807,299
880,620

2.6
-2.2

Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

64,039
63,034

64,422
63,521

67,540
67,923

-0.6
-0.8

-4.6
-6.5

1.1
-1.1

59,520
57,978

63,573
61,463

64,548
73,233

730,014
763,031

722,684
799,880

1.0
-4.6

Excluding aircraft:
Shipments………………………
New Orders…………………….

61,282
61,158

61,171
58,407

63,567
62,547

0.2
4.7

-3.8
-6.6

1.7
-3.4

56,763
55,861

60,686
58,879

59,316
58,942

684,673
696,037

671,838
686,525

1.9
1.4

Defense capital goods:
Shipments………………………….
New Orders…………………………

8,942
8,430

9,277
7,820

9,207
12,139

-3.6
7.8

0.8
-35.6

1.6
23.3

9,222
7,867

9,173
8,120

8,294
6,014

98,082
98,526

84,615
80,740

15.9
22.0

NA Not Available

r

Revised

1

Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not
adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which
includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design,
methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-3(07), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 2004-2007.

3

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending
laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all
other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and
control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and
medical equipment and supplies.
Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment

4

Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data.
Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately

3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories
[Millions of Dollars]
Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly

Percent Change

Item
Nov
2008 2

Oct
2008 r

Sep
2008

Oct Nov 2

Sep Oct r

Aug Sep

Nov
2008 2

Not Seasonally Adjusted 1
Monthly
Percent
Change
Oct
Nov
2008/
r
2007
2007
2008

DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

815,643
342,896

820,753
341,255

828,225
339,728

-0.6
0.5

-0.9
0.4

0.2
0.2

798,702
343,714

806,703
342,447

741,403
318,076

7.7
8.1

Excluding transportation:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

347,623
250,318

350,605
251,113

357,817
251,152

-0.9
-0.3

-2.0
0.0

-0.6
0.4

340,513
250,282

345,784
251,249

330,260
238,020

3.1
5.2

Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

657,953
317,707

662,337
316,483

668,909
315,409

-0.7
0.4

-1.0
0.3

-0.3
0.3

645,393
318,480

651,929
317,575

598,212
295,390

7.9
7.8

Manufacturing with unfilled orders:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

815,643
274,960

820,753
273,494

828,225
272,691

-0.6
0.5

-0.9
0.3

0.2
0.0

798,702
275,618

806,703
274,786

741,403
251,977

7.7
9.4

Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

21,214
34,217

23,204
34,829

26,212
35,168

-8.6
-1.8

-11.5
-1.0

-7.6
0.3

19,856
33,935

21,713
34,682

26,210
30,413

-24.2
11.6

Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

59,829
44,745

60,622
44,762

61,556
44,942

-1.3
0.0

-1.5
-0.4

-0.6
0.3

57,836
44,104

59,668
44,565

58,304
41,221

-0.8
7.0

Machinery:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

105,701
54,835

106,237
54,789

107,325
54,629

-0.5
0.1

-1.0
0.3

0.5
0.4

103,926
55,125

104,703
54,698

88,247
52,315

17.8
5.4

Computers and electronic products:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

125,678
47,383

124,564
47,431

125,161
47,022

0.9
-0.1

-0.5
0.9

0.2
0.0

123,976
48,259

123,705
48,084

120,115
45,702

3.2
5.6

Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

4,140
4,925

3,590
4,861

3,924
5,039

15.3
1.3

-8.5
-3.5

0.5
0.2

4,140
5,189

3,590
4,935

3,563
5,220

16.2
-0.6

Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

37,585
9,803

37,622
9,807

37,389
9,649

-0.1
0.0

0.6
1.6

-1.0
-3.0

37,024
10,234

37,566
9,962

36,058
9,639

2.7
6.2

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
(NA)

Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

22,761
15,021

23,334
15,168

24,606
15,366

-2.5
-1.0

-5.2
-1.3

-1.4
0.7

22,337
14,864

23,097
15,015

23,472
14,608

-4.8
1.8

Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

468,020
92,578

470,148
90,142

470,408
88,576

-0.5
2.7

-0.1
1.8

0.9
-0.2

458,189
93,432

460,919
91,198

411,143
80,056

11.4
16.7

Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

16,412
22,520

16,779
22,842

17,042
22,904

-2.2
-1.4

-1.5
-0.3

-1.7
-1.6

15,981
22,417

16,201
22,881

18,278
24,416

-12.6
-8.2

Nondefense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

310,680
44,022

311,248
41,947

309,107
40,571

-0.2
4.9

0.7
3.4

0.7
1.3

304,557
44,873

305,385
42,721

262,338
32,216

16.1
39.3

Defense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

47,418
14,717

47,069
14,292

46,470
13,962

0.7
3.0

1.3
2.4

1.4
-1.7

46,061
14,726

45,668
14,397

39,161
12,802

17.6
15.0

All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

12,440
54,117

12,644
54,134

12,957
54,025

-1.6
0.0

-2.4
0.2

-1.8
0.6

12,582
53,995

12,898
54,205

13,912
53,761

-9.6
0.4

Capital goods:3
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

621,030
162,654

622,547
161,037

624,905
159,247

-0.2
1.0

-0.4
1.1

0.5
0.2

608,918
164,616

611,815
162,196

549,693
146,643

10.8
12.3

Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

480,044
143,131

481,049
141,789

481,950
140,368

-0.2
0.9

-0.2
1.0

0.1
0.3

471,832
145,057

473,374
142,953

420,991
128,617

12.1
12.8

Excluding aircraft:
Unfilled Orders………………..
Total Inventories……………….

202,989
108,570

203,113
108,897

205,877
108,679

-0.1
-0.3

-1.3
0.2

-0.5
0.1

200,148
109,785

201,050
109,446

187,709
104,535

6.6
5.0

Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

140,986
19,523

141,498
19,248

142,955
18,879

-0.4
1.4

-1.0
2.0

2.1
-1.0

137,086
19,559

138,441
19,243

128,702
18,026

6.5
8.5

Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories4…………………..

See footnotes at end of Table 1

4

Survey Description
This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),
end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value), and
inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). The M3 includes
approximately 4,300 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous
companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89
categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey show
that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 61 percent of the shipments estimates at the total
manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is based on a
voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.
The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,300 reporting units and provide an
indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a
complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,300 companies would
yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a
limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,
the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are
attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for
establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report.
Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made
later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication.
Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.

2009 Release Dates for M3 Survey
Survey Month

Advance 8:30 A.M.

Preliminary 10:00 A.M.

November 2008

Dec. 24, 2008

Jan. 6, 2009

December 2008

Jan. 29, 2009

Feb. 5, 2009

January 2009

Feb. 26, 2009

Mar. 5, 2009

February 2009

Mar. 25, 2009

Apr. 2, 2009

March 2009

Apr. 24, 2009

May 1, 2009

April 2009

May 28, 2009

Jun. 3, 2009

May 2009

Jun. 24, 2009

Jul. 2, 2009

June 2009

Jul. 29, 2009

Aug. 5, 2009

July 2009

Aug. 26, 2009

Sep. 2, 2009

August 2009

Sep. 25, 2009

Oct. 2, 2009

September 2009

Oct. 28, 2009

Nov. 3, 2009

October 2009

Nov. 25, 2009

Dec. 4, 2009

November 2009

Dec. 24, 2009