Turkeys Raised

Turkeys Raised
Washington, D.C.

Released August 25, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S.
Department of Agriculture. For information on Turkeys Raised call Fleming Gibson at 202-690-3237, office hours 7:30 a.m.
to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Turkeys Raised Down Slightly from 2007
The preliminary estimate of turkeys raised in the United States during 2008 is 271 million, down
slightly from the number raised during 2007.
The following six States are expected to account for about two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the
United States during 2008: Minnesota, at 49.0 million turkeys, is up 2 percent from last year;
North Carolina, at 39.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from last year; Arkansas, at 31.0 million
turkeys, is unchanged from a year ago; Virginia, at 21.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from 2007;
Missouri, at 20.0 million turkeys, is unchanged from last year; and Indiana, at 15.9 million
turkeys, is up 5 percent from last year.

U.S. Number of Turkeys Raised
Million Head
285
280
275
270
265
260
255
250
245
1999

Pou 3-2 (8-08)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

State

Turkeys: Number Raised by State and United States, 2007-2008
Number Raised 1
2007

2

2008

1,000 Head

1,000 Head

2008
as % of
2007
Percent

AR
CA
IL
IN
IA
MD
MA
MI
MN
MO
NJ
NY
NC
ND
OH
PA
SC
SD
VT
VA
WV

31,000
16,000
2,700
15,100
8,300
750
55
4,800
48,000
20,000
39
640
39,000
1,700
5,200
11,500
10,500
4,500
51
21,000
3,500

31,000
15,700
2,700
15,900
9,000
760
58
4,800
49,000
20,000
35
630
39,000
1,200
5,200
11,500
10,500
4,600
51
21,000
3,500

100
98
100
105
108
101
105
100
102
100
90
98
100
71
100
100
100
102
100
100
100

Oth Sts 3

27,350

24,950

91

271,084
271,685
US 4
1
Excludes young turkeys lost.
2
Revised.
3
CO, KS, NE, OK, TX, UT, and WI combined to avoid disclosing individual operations.
4
28 State total.

100

Reliability of Turkeys Raised Estimates
Data Sources: The monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey provides the basis for the preliminary
turkeys raised estimates published in August. Turkey hatchery estimates are made in 18 States each
month and provide the number of eggs in incubators, poults hatched, and net poults placed in
production. United States import and export data are included in the preliminary estimates for
turkeys raised.
Estimation Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for
meat production, as well as breeder turkeys which reach maturity during the calendar year. These
estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the
monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in
August. Final estimates, published in January, use indications from the December Growers Survey
in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from
monthly slaughter totals and check off data provided by individual State turkey or poultry
associations.

Turkeys Raised
August 2008

2

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when preliminary raised
estimates are made in August. Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter
data, and at the U.S. level, are usually less than one half of one percent of the final estimate
published in January. Estimates are also reviewed after data from the five year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after five-year census data revisions have been
published.
Reliability: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates are based on a census of known active hatcheries
and, therefore, have no sampling variability. However, estimates may be subject to errors such as
omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. These
errors are minimized through strict quality controls in the edit and summarization process, and a
careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error”
is shown for selected items in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical
measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final
estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for number of turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.2
percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the
current estimate of 271 million turkeys by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the
difference will not exceed 2.3 percent.

Item

Root
Mean
Square
Error

Reliability of August Turkeys Raised Estimates 1
Difference Between
90 Percent
First and Latest
Confidence
Estimates
Level
Average
Smallest
Largest

Number of Years
First
First
Above
Below
Latest
Latest

Percent

Percent

Number

Number
Raised
1.2
2.3
1
Based on data for the past 10 years.

1,000

1,000

6,167

1,000

2,753

1,000

9

5,560

Number

4

6

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural
Statistics Service to contact for additional information.
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ........................... (202) 720-4447
David Colwell - Cold Storage............................................................................. (202) 720-8784
Fleming Gibson - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ........... (202) 690-3237
Sharyn Lavender - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery, Honey ....................... (202) 720-3244
Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ................................................................................ (202) 690-8632
Toby Paterson - Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Trout Production,
Census of Aquaculture, Egg Products, Mink........................... (202) 720-0585

Turkeys Raised
August 2008

3

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

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