Supporting Statement Part B-FINAL

1Supporting Statement

Part B

POMPEYS PILLAR VISITOR SURVEY

(OMB Control Number 1028-NEW)

Terms of Clearance: None

Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe

and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of

entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in

the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided

in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed

sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection had

been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last

collection.

We will conduct an intercept survey of visitors at Pompeys Pillar National Monument (PPNM). Based on information from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) managers at PPNM, there were approximately 50,500 visitors to the PPNM visitor center in FY 2008. We are going to use a conservative estimate of 60,000 annual visitors for this collection.

Respondent types will include visitors who are: local, non-local, or non-resident.

Visitors are people (local residents, non-locals, and non-residents) who visit PPNM during the 2009 visitor season.

Local residents are individuals who live within the Billings, MT commuting area (Yellowstone County).

Non-locals are those who live elsewhere in the state of Montana (outside of Yellowstone County).

Non-residents are those who live outside of the state of Montana.

Based on our experiences with a similar on-site survey (OMB Control Number 1040-0001), we anticipate a response rate at or above 80%. Additionally, a recent customer satisfaction survey conducted at Pompeys Pillar in 2007 to comply with Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) achieved a response rate of 77%. This 77% response rate was achieved without an incentive, was a long survey, and only one person conducted intercept. We anticipate an 80% or better response rate by offering an incentive, designing a short survey, and having a team of surveyors for the intercept. We also will employ other methods used in Dillman’s Tailored Design Method (2007) to maximize our response rates.

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including:

* Statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection,

* Estimation procedure,

* Degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification

* Unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures, and

* Any use of periodic (less frequent than annual) data collection cycles to reduce burden.

The BLM has retained the USGS to conduct an intercept survey of visitors to PPNM to determine visitor spending in the Billings, MT area. The BLM and USGS will provide surveyors to assist in summer data collection. The USGS will train the surveyors to track response rates. They will use a systematic sampling method involving a random start and then proceed with the selection of every kth visitor from then onwards. In this case, k=(population size/sample size). It is important to note here, that the starting point is not automatically the first visitor encountered, but is instead will be randomly chosen from within the first to the kth visitor exiting PPNM. A simple example would be that we will select every 5th visitor exiting PPNM with a skip of 5. The surveyors will be trained in proper techniques to ensure that visitation is not over-represented by certain groups such as bus tour groups and also to check for potential non-response bias. In order to ensure that a non-response bias check can be completed if necessary every fifth person who refuses to take the survey will then be asked 3 questions (see details in Question 3 below).

Each surveyor will complete an on-site log for every visitor contact, taking note of gender, date, acceptance or refusal, questionnaire ID for respondents, and reason for refusal if offered. Individuals who volunteer to take the survey will be thanked for their co-operation and will be provided a clipboard and asked to complete the survey before leaving the area. A drop box for completed surveys will be located on-site.

Sampling procedures

Our sample plan will use a stratified random assignment. Days will first be separated into weekdays (Monday – Thursday) and weekends (Friday – Sunday). Each day will then be assigned a number and be sampled without replacement using a random number table, two weekdays and one weekend day will be chosen for each week. The same procedure will be followed for times of day, which was divided into morning (8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.), midday (12:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.), and evening (4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.) shifts. Sampling will be concluded on September 30, 2009.

A designated survey station will be located on a path taken by all visitors exiting the monument. The survey station was used successfully in 2007 for the GPRA survey mentioned above. The survey station will consist of a picnic table in the shade and a permanent cold water dispenser. An incentive to complete the questionnaire will be offered (see Question 3 below). The incentive will be offered to visitors regardless of whether they consented or refused to fill out the questionnaire. Intercepted visitor(s) will be greeted and introduced to the purpose and importance of the study.

The survey will be administered during the peak summer visitation period (mid July to mid-August) and fall visitation period (September). The schedule for distributing the survey for each visitation period is provided in Tables 1.

Table 1: Sampling schedule for intercept survey of visitors to the PPNM (to be conducted during peak summer and fall visitation periods).

Visitation Periods	Estimated Visitor Population	Total Visitors Contacted	Expected Number of Respondents	Approximate Weekly Target (4 weeks)	Approximate Daily Target (3 days/week)	Non-respondent Sample Size (4 weeks)
mid-July-mid-August	45,000	562	450	113	38	22
Late August-September	15,000	188	150	38	13	8
TOTAL	60,000	750	600			30

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling, a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

Additional Methods used to maximize response rates based on The Dillman Tailored Design Method (2007).

• Quick-and-Easy Questionnaire - The questionnaire will be in an easy-to-read, 2-page (15 questions) magazine format that will take approximately nine minutes to complete.

• Personal Contact - The interview team will first be trained in the administration of the interview protocol, including procedures to increase the effectiveness of respondent communications, before handing out the survey instrument. The use of a well-trained team will help decrease non-response error by effectively communicating the survey’s purpose and the BLM’s desire for input from all recreational users.

• Incentives- In order to encourage response, the PPNM will offer three incentives to the respondents: (this effort is considered as a part of the BLM’s general education and outreach effort, and therefore is not an added cost to the government or this task).

  • A BLM magnet,

  • BLM brochures and map of the PPNM, or

  • A BLM notepad and pencil.

Addressing Non Response Bias Rate

To check for potential non-response bias, the surveyors will maintain an on-site log for every visitor contact. Each log will note gender, date, time, and acceptance or refusal. The surveyors will ask every 5^th refusal (similar to the sampling method described above) to participate in the survey by answering three questions from the survey. We will use these responses to determine if there is a significant difference between respondents and non-respondents.

Table 2. Questions used to check for the non-response bias interviews.

Where are you from? Yellowstone County, Montana Elsewhere in Montana	Another state (please specify) _____________ Outside the U.S
Including yourself, how many people are in your group?
What was your one-way travel time or travel distance from home to Pompeys Pillar National Monument on this most recent trip? Travel time: ______ # hours______ # minutes Distance: _______ # one-way miles

­­­4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken. Testing is encouraged as an effective means of refining collections of information to minimize burden and improve utility. Tests must be approved if they call for answers to identical questions from 10 or more respondents. A proposed test or set of tests may be submitted for approval separately or in combination with the main collection of information.

The survey was reviewed for its technical content with direction from the BLM management and program staff. The survey was also peer reviewed in terms of content, clarity, statistical relevance, and respondent burden. The surveys were pretested with a small group of federal employees for any comprehension problems and to verify the completion time. Based on all of the comments received, the survey was modified and improved.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), grantee(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

Statistical consultants:

Dr. John B. Loomis, Professor

Colorado State University

Department of Agriculture and Resource Economics

B310 Andrew G. Clark

Office Phone: (970) 491-2485

Email: [email protected]

Joshua B. Wilson
Economist, U.S. Forest Service

Fort Collins, CO 80525
Phone: 559-246-7025
Email: [email protected]

Collection and analysis agency:

Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch

Fort Collins Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey

2150 Centre Ave, Building C

Fort Collins, CO

Phone: 970-226-9313

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