CARS Dealer Survey aug 4 09_Part B

Department of Transportation

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

SUPPORTING STATEMENT

CONSUMER ASSISTANCE TO RECYCLE AND SAVE PROGRAM

CARS DEALER SURVEY

OMB CONTROL NUMBER: 2127-0602

B. COLLECTION OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection methods to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g. establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection had been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.

This is a new collection. At present, it is anticipated that the survey will be conducted 13 times. The potential respondent universe includes all dealers/franchisees that have registered with NHTSA as dealers in the CARS program as of August 2, 2009 (pursuant to OMB Clearance No. 2127-0657). Thus, the NHTSA respondent universe is already established. The estimated number of dealers in the respondent universe is about 16,000. This number is less than the 19,000 estimated in OMB Clearance No. 2127-0657 because some dealers may have more than one franchise (i.e., a dealer may have both a Ford and a Toyota franchise).

A random sample of 1600, approximately 10 percent, will be selected from the respondent universe of dealers. The database will be randomized and a systematic sample will be selected. The interval will be the number of dealers in the database divided by 1600.

We anticipate that the response rate will be at least 90 percent because the sample frame is comprised of dealers already participating in the Program. Consequently, they have an incentive to respond.

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including: statistical

methodology for stratification and sample selection, estimation procedure, degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification, unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures, and any use of periodic (less frequent than annual) data collection cycles to reduce burden.

As described above, a random sample of 1600 dealers will be selected. The sample size was estimated using data provided by the National Automobile Dealers Association to estimate the variance of the number of transactions that have not been submitted to NHTSA. Assuming a 90 percent response rate and adjusting for this expected non-response, NHTSA estimates that the sample will be sufficient to estimate the total amount of dollars yet to be requested from the CARS Program with a 95 percent confidence interval of +/- $75,000,000.

The survey will be conducted via telephone by Westat, Inc., under contract number DTNH22-07-D-00057. Westat will take the sample list to be provided to them by NHTSA and use their CATI system to contact the 1600 dealers. The questions to be asked by Westat are included in Appendix A.

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling, a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield “reliable” data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

The survey has been limited to 4 basic questions. The survey is voluntary. As described above, non-response is not anticipated to be a problem because the sample frame is comprised of dealers already participating in the Program, who have an incentive to provide accurate information. However, the estimating procedure will adjust for any non-response in estimating the amount of dollars in transactions yet to be submitted to NHTSA. Additionally, we will send the dealers an e-mail prior to each telephone survey to alert them of the survey and to give them time to prepare their response.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken. Testing is encouraged as an effective means of refining collections of information to minimize burden and improve utility. Tests must be approved if they call for answers to identical questions from 10 or more respondents. A proposed test or set of tests may be submitted for approval separately or in combination with the main collection of information.

The extremely short deadline by which NHTSA needs this information does not allow time for formal testing of the survey instruments. The survey instrument has been reviewed by NHTSA staff and reflects comments and suggestions resulting from that review.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), grantee(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

Mr. Rory Austin (202-366-2672) and Mr. John Kindelberger (202-366-4952), Mathematical Statisticians in NHTSA provided the statistical consultation and will conduct the analysis. The data collection will be done by a contractor that has yet to be determined.