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pdfSugar and Sweeteners Outlook
SSS-256
Oct. 5, 2009
Stephen Haley
[email protected]
Erik Dohlman
[email protected]
USDA Sets Sugar Program Parameters for Fiscal
Year 2010
Contents
U.S. Sugar
Mexican Sugar & HFCS
Maple Syrup
Special Article:
Tight Supplies Expected to
Sustain High U.S. Sugar
Prices into 2009/10 (p. 28)
Contacts & Links
Tables
Sugar imports 2009
Sugar imports 2010
Estimated sugar in
product imports and
exports
High fructose corn syrup
S&U
HFCS and nonindustrial
sugar end use
HFCS and sugar end
user deliveries
Web Sites
WASDE
Sugar Briefing Room
-------------The next release is
January 2010
-------------Approved by the
World Agricultural
Outlook Board
The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, as amended by the Food, Conservation, and
Energy Act of 2008, requires that sugar marketing allotments be in effect in fiscal year
(FY) 2010. The act requires that the Overall Allotment Quantity (OAQ) be set at no less
than 85 percent of the estimated quantity of sugar for domestic consumption. On
September 25, the Secretary of Agriculture announced that the FY 2010 OAQ is set at
9,235,250 short tons, raw value (STRV). This amount is above the minimum 85 percent
level of the estimated sugar for domestic consumption.
On September 25, the USDA established the FY 2010 raw and refined sugar tariff-rate
quotas (TRQs). The raw sugar TRQ was set at 1,231,497 STRV (1,117,195 metric tons,
raw value (MTRV)), the minimum access commitment under World Trade Organization
(WTO) rules. The FY 2010 refined and specialty sugar TRQ was established at 99,251
STRV. This amount includes the WTO minimum amount of 24,251 STRV, 1,825 STRV
of which is reserved for specialty sugar, as well as an additional 75,000 STRV for
specialty sugar to accommodate a rapidly expanding organic food sector.
In the September 2009 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected U.S. and Mexico sugar supply and
use for FYs 2009 and 2010. (See special article in this report “Tight Supplies
Expected to Sustain High U.S. Sugar Prices into 2009/10”). U.S. beet sugar
production for FY 2010 is projected at 4.700 million STRV, an increase of 450,000
STRV from FY 2009. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
the national sugar beet yield is forecast at a record 27.04 tons per acre, and area
harvested is forecast at 1.159 million acres, about 154,000 acres more than last year. The
USDA expects the September/August 2009/10 sugar yield per acre at 4.174 STRV, about
the same as in the 2008/09 crop year (4.131 STRV). Beet sugar production in September
2009 year is expected to be about 100,000 STRV more than production in September
2008. This increase is counted as part of the FY 2009 production total (4.250 million
STRV), implying FY 2010 beet sugar production at 4.700 million STRV.
Cane sugar for FY 2010 is projected at 3.325 million STRV, about the same as in
FY 2009 (3.321 million STRV). Florida cane sugar production is projected to
increase 131,000 STRV over FY 2009 to 1.700 million STRV. Although NASS
reports sugarcane area harvested for sugar and seed to decline by 10,000 acres to
390,000 acres, it also reports yield to increase to 36.7 tons per acre, up from 33.1
tons from FY 2009. FY 2010 Louisiana cane sugar production is projected at 1.3
million STRV, down by 100,000 STRV compared with FY 2009. NASS forecasts
Louisiana area harvested for sugar and seed at 400,000, 5,000 acres less than last
year, and sugarcane yield at 27.0 tons per acre, a reduction of 4.6 percent from
last year.
Sugar imports under the sugar TRQ for FY 2010 are projected at 1.182 million
STRV in the September 2009 WASDE. This projection was made before the
USDA announcement of the raw and refined sugar TRQs on September
25. The projection assumes that all TRQs would be set at minimum levels to be
consistent with U.S. obligations to the WTO and to Free Trade Agreements
(FTAs) passed by the U.S. Congress. Also, the projection assumes a TRQ
shortfall equal to 200,000 STRV, a high level attributable to high world sugar
prices making the United States a less desirable export destination.
Imports from Mexico for FY 2009 are now projected at 1,375,000 STRV, based on
pace to date, and with only the month of September to go. About 64 percent of the
total is imported for direct consumption, and remainder is for further refining. Sugar
imports from Mexico for FY 2010 are projected at 450,000 STRV. Strong U.S.
demand for raw sugar will be a draw for Mexican estandar sugar, especially if the
raw sugar TRQ does not increase in the second half of FY 2010.
Deliveries of sugar for human consumption in FY 2009 are estimated at 10.735
million STRV, the highest level since the early 1970s. The high level of
consumption deliveries is due to earlier-year contracted Mexican sugar substituting
for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and some domestically processed sugar.
Deliveries of domestically processed sugar in FY 2009 are estimated at 9.783
million STRV, about 345,000 STRV less than in FY 2008.
Deliveries of sugar for human consumption in FY 2010 are projected at 10.140
million STRV, indicating a large decrease of almost 600,000 STRV from deliveries
in FY 2009. The USDA expects substantial reductions in imports from Mexico of
refined sugar for direct consumption. Mexico has already announced sugar import
quotas totaling 600,000 metric tons (mt) for entry before the end of the 2009
calendar year. Most of these imports are expected to be refined sugar to replace
Mexican refined sugar exported to the United States in FY 2009. Deliveries of
domestically processed (i.e., U.S.) sugar are expected to increase by 290,000 STRV
in FY 2010. An implication of the USDA sugar deliveries’ projection is that
deliveries of HFCS should rebound about 5 percent from FY 2009 levels.
Ending FY 2009 stocks are estimated at 1.307 million STRV, implying an endingyear stocks-to-use ratio of 11.84 percent, the lowest level since 1975. Ending FY
2010 stocks are projected at 844,000 STRV, implying an ending-year stocks-to-use
ratio of 7.98 percent, which would be the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 1958.
Reflecting low stock levels, the low end of the refined beet sugar Midwest price
range from Milling and Baking News is quoted at 42 cents per pound (lb) in the first
2 weeks of September, up 6.6 cents/lb from July.
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
The Inter-Continental Exchange (ICE) raw sugar November No. 16 contract futures
has averaged 28.50 cents/lb through the first half of September. Up until the first
week of August, increases in the No.16 raw sugar price were strongly correlated
with the runup in Mexican estandar sugar prices. Since then, most upward pressure
has been exerted by high world raw sugar prices (No.11 ICE contract). The margin
between U.S. and world raw sugar prices rises to reflect tightness in domestic
supplies and to keep the U.S. competitive in bidding sugar away from other
importing countries.
Mexico sugar production for FY 2010 is forecast at 5.500 million metric tons, raw
value (MTRV), up 240,000 MTRV from this year’s disappointing production total
(5.260 million MTRV). For FY 2010 the USDA expects sugarcane area to be about
the same as in FY 2009 but expects some recovery in sugarcane yield—up from
64.2 mt per hectare to 69.3 mt. Even so, the FY 2010 yield forecast is still below the
10-year average and may be optimistic. Certain sugarcane-producing regions in
Mexico have continued experiencing dry growing conditions. It is also unclear to
what extent use of chemical/fertilizer inputs has recovered from the 2008/09 crop
year. Although dollar prices of imported chemical and fertilizer inputs have been
less this year than last, an offset has resulted from the depreciation of the Mexican
peso by about 30 percent since August 2008.
Mexico sugar imports in FY 2010 are projected at 710,000 MTRV. This projection
assumes that 100,000 MTRV of announced quota enters in September 2009
(counted as imports in FY 2009) and that Mexico imports about 180,000 MTRV of
sugar from the United States for its sugar-containing product re-export
program (IMMEX).
Mexican exports are projected at 450,000 MTRV, mostly of estandar sugar destined
for the United States. Deliveries for human consumption are projected at 5.140
million MTRV, and deliveries of domestic sugar for the IMMEX program are
projected at 400,000 MTRV. Ending-year stocks, the difference between total
supply and use, are projected at 885,000 MTRV. The resulting stocks-toconsumption ratio is 17.2 percent.
This is the last issue of the Sugar and Sweetener Outlook (SSO) in its present
format. Starting in January 2010, the SSO will be published monthly 2 to
3 days after publication of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE). Each issue of the SSO will focus on changes made to the
U.S. and Mexico sugar supply and demand estimates appearing in that month’s
WASDE. This change is being made to better serve the needs of the SSO
readership and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
U.S. Sugar
On September 25, 2009, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) established
sugar program parameters for fiscal year (FY) 2010. These parameters included the
overall allotment quantity (OAQ) and the raw and refined sugar tariff-rate quotas
(TRQs). On September 11, 2009, the USDA released its latest supply and use
estimates for FY 2009 and projections for FY 2010 for both the United States and
Mexico in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Sugar Program for FY 2010
The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, as amended by the Food, Conservation,
and Energy Act of 2008, requires that sugar marketing allotments be in effect in FY
2010. The act requires that the OAQ be set at no less than 85 percent of the
estimated quantity of sugar for domestic consumption. On September 25, the
Secretary of Agriculture announced that the FY 2010 OAQ is set at 9,235,250 short
tons, raw value (STRV). This amount is above the minimum 85 percent level of the
estimated sugar for domestic consumption. Pursuant to law, the allocation to the
beet sugar sector is set at 5,019,358 STRV, or 54.35 percent of the OAQ. The
allocation to the cane sugar sector is the remainder, 4,215,892 STRV. Cane sugar
production is expected to fall significantly short of its allotment, requiring
reassignment to imports later in FY 2010.
On September 25, the USDA established the FY 2010 raw and refined sugar TRQs.
The authority for establishing the sugar TRQs is the Harmonized Tariff Schedule
(HTS) of the United States, Chapter 17, and Additional U.S. Note 5 of Chapter 17.
The raw sugar TRQ was set at 1,231,497 STRV (1,117,195 metric tons, raw value
(MTRV)), the minimum access commitment under World Trade Organization
(WTO) rules. The FY 2010 refined and specialty sugar TRQ was established at
99,251 STRV. This amount includes the WTO minimum amount of 24,251 STRV,
1,825 STRV of which is reserved for specialty sugar, as well as an additional
75,000 STRV for specialty sugar to accommodate a rapidly expanding organic
food sector.
The USDA will administer the FY 2010 specialty sugar portion of the refined and
specialty sugar TRQ in five tranches. Because this portion of the TRQ will be
administered on a first-come, first-served basis, tranches are needed to allow for
orderly marketing throughout the year. The first tranche, totaling 1,825 STRV, will
open on Oct. 20, 2009. All specialty sugars are eligible for entry under this tranche.
The second tranche will open on Nov. 10, 2009, and be equal to 27,558 STRV. The
remaining three tranches each will be equal to 15,814 STRV, with the third tranche
opening on Jan. 12, 2010; the fourth, on May 17, 2010; and the fifth, on Aug. 24,
2010. The second, third, fourth, and fifth tranches will be reserved for organic sugar
and other specialty sugars not currently produced commercially in the United States
or reasonably available from domestic sources.
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
U.S. Production
FY 2010 Beet Sugar Production
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), in its September 2009 edition
of Crop Production, forecasts area harvested at 1.159 million acres, a 15.3-percent
increase over that of last year. All beet areas, except California, report acreage
increases over those of last year: Pacific North West, 25.3 percent; Great Plains,
12.2 percent; Upper Midwest, 4.6 percent; and the Great Lakes, 0.7 percent.
National sugar beet yield is forecast at a record 27.0 tons/acre. NASS forecasts
record yields in Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, and Wyoming. NASS
forecasts the total sugar beet crop at 31.327 million tons, an increase of 16.7 percent
over the preceding harvest of 26.837 million tons.
Since the 2006/07 crop year, sugar beet yields in all producing areas have been
noticeably higher than in prior years. Figure 1 shows regional yields since the
2006/07 crop year relative to the average for 1999/2000-2005/06. In each region,
the ratio of lowest yield since 2006/07 to the earlier-period average is substantial:
Upper Midwest, 18.0 percent; Great Lakes, 16.4 percent; Pacific North West, 15.1
percent; and the Great Plains, 8.9 percent. The rise in yields was due mainly to the
use of rhizomania-resistant seed varieties and the use of Pancho Beta to control for
Curly Top. Fuller adaption of genetically-modified-organism (GMO) seed varieties
(about 95 percent in 2009/10, up from about 60 percent in 2008/09) strengthens the
trend of higher yields.1/
Higher yields have been accompanied by lower sugar beet area planted. Figure 2
shows yield and area since 1999/2000. Relative to 1999/2000, yield has grown
about 24 percent and area planted has declined by about the same amount. Figure 3
shows that the negative relationship has been strongest in these last 4 crop years.
This observation suggests that, in the future, sugar beet area is likely to be
less volatile.2/
1/
On September 21, 2009, a Federal
judge in the Northern District of
California ruled that the USDA had
failed to adequately assess the
environmental impacts of GMO
sugar beets before approving the
crop for cultivation in the United
States. The specific concern was the
spread of GMO traits to other sugar
beets or to related crops of Swiss
chard and red table beets. A meeting
to begin the remedy phase of the
case is scheduled for October 30,
2009. The plaintiffs to the lawsuit
are asking that the planting of GMO
beets be banned.
2/
Figure 1
U.S. sugar beet yields, by region
1,000 acres
40.0
35.0
Av:1999-2005
2006
2007
2008
31.4
2009
34.3
34.1
31.6
28.7
30.0
25.0
20.0
27.0
23.2
25.3
23.4
19.9
25.1
23.6 25.0
20.0
25.0
24.1 25.9
27.3
23.6
21.6
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Great Lakes
Upper Midwest
Great Plains
North West
Source: USDA, NASS, Crop Production.
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Using data since 1982, the ERS
Sugar and Sweetener Group has
found that a 10-percent change in
the previous year’s ratio of per acre
returns of sugar beets to alternative
crops is on average followed by an
expansion in area planted of 2.65
percent. Based on preliminary
NASS data, the return ratio
increased about 56 percent in
2008/09. (The return ratio in
2007/08 was the lowest since 1982,
some 2.9 standard deviations below
the mean.) The increase in 2009/10
area planted, however, is only 7.5
percent, about half of the predicted
amount. This is partial evidence that
higher permanent expected yields
have possibly altered the elasticity
relationship between net returns and
area adjustment.
Figure 2
U.S. sugar beet area planted and yield, crop years 1999-2009
1,000 acres
1,600
Tons per acre
29.0
27.0
1,500
25.0
1,400
23.0
1,300
21.0
1,200
Area planted
Yield
1,100
19.0
17.0
1,000
15.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: USDA, NASS, Crop Production .
Figure 3
Relationship between sugar beet area planted and yield,
1999/2000-2009/10
Yield (tons per acre)
28.0
27.0
26.0
2006/07-2009/10
25.0
y = -0.0036x + 30.716
2
R = 0.4071
24.0
23.0
1999/2000 2005/06
y = 0.0024x + 18.709
2
R = 0.0423
22.0
21.0
20.0
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
Area planted (1,000 acres)
1,500
1,600
Source: USDA, NASS, Crop Production.
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Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
U.S. beet sugar production for FY 2010 is projected at 4.700 million STRV, an
increase of 450,000 STRV from FY 2009. On a September/August crop year basis,
the Sugar and Sweetener Team at the Economic Research Service (ERS) expects
national sugar per harvested acre at 4.174 STRV, about the same as in the 2008/09
crop year, which would imply a corresponding beet sugar forecast of 4.800 million
STRV. However, because early season beet sugar production in September 2009 is
expected to be about 100,000 STRV more than production in September 2008, this
increase is counted as part of the FY 2009 production total (4.250 million STRV),
implying FY 2010 beet sugar production at 4.700 million STRV.
FY 2010 Cane Sugar Production
Cane sugar for FY 2010 is projected at 3.325 million STRV, about the same as FY
2009 (3.321 million STRV). Florida cane sugar production is projected to increase
131,000 STRV over FY 2009 to 1.700 million STRV. Although NASS reports
sugarcane area harvested for sugar and seed down by 10,000 acres to 390,000 acres,
it also reports a yield increase to 36.7 tons per acre, up from 33.1 tons in FY 2009.
FY 2010 Louisiana cane sugar production is projected at 1.3 million STRV, down
by 100,000 STRV compared with FY 2009. NASS forecasts Louisiana area
harvested for sugar and seed at 400,000 acres--5,000 acres less than last year, and
sugarcane yield at 27.0 tons per acre, a reduction of 4.6 percent from last year. Cane
sugar production is forecast at 165,000 STRV in Texas and 160,000 STRV
in Hawaii.
Unlike beet sugar production, cane sugar production in recent years has shown little
growth. Figure 4 shows mainland sugar production since 1998/99. In the first half
of the period (1998/99-2003/04), production averaged 3.714 million STRV. The
Figure 4
Mainland cane sugar production, 1998/99-2009/10
1,000 short tons, raw value
4,100
Raw cane sugar
Av:1998/99-2003/04
Av: 2004/05-2009/10
3,900
3,700
3,500
3,300
3,100
2,900
2,700
2,500
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
Source: USDA, FSA, Sweetener Market Data .
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
average since then has been 3.082 million STRV, some 17 percent lower. Figure 5
shows added details. Area harvested increased through the 1990s, plateaued in the
early 2000s, and then declined. Yields displayed a similar pattern: rising till
1997/98 and then stagnating, with weather-related downturns in the middle of the
latter period.
Trade
Imports for FY 2009 are estimated at 3.116 million STRV (table 1). Through
August 2009 (fig. 6), raw sugar TRQ entries equaled 986,104 STRV (894,579
MTRV), or about 80 percent of the expected total. Sugar from Mexico for the year
is estimated at 1.375 million STRV, of which 1.356 million STRV has entered, or
99 percent of the estimated total. About 34 percent of Mexican imports arrived in
bulk by ocean vessel. All of this sugar was destined for refining. The remainder was
imported in containers, railcars, or trucks. Although some of this sugar was destined
to beet processors and cane refiners for further processing, most was for direct
consumption or for sale by jobbers.
Refined sugar TRQ entries equaled 252,972 STRV through August 2009. About 67
percent of these entries occurred in the last quarter of 2008 that were part of an
addition to the FY 2008 refined TRQ, which was announced on August 6, 2008,
and which allowed entries until December 31, 2008. Refined sugar entries for the
FY 2009 TRQ have amounted to 84,520 STRV, or about 81 percent of the
allocated amount.
Imports for FY 2010 are projected in the September WASDE at 2.087 million
STRV. Expected raw sugar TRQ entries are the allocated amount (1.231 million
STRV) less shortfall (196,744 STRV), or 1.035 million STRV. Expected refined
sugar TRQ entries are projected at 20,994 STRV. Because the additional specialty
sugar was not announced prior to the September WASDE, it was not included in the
total. However, the full amount would be expected to enter under most
circumstances. Other TRQ entries under Free Trade Agreements are projected at
126,400 STRV, of which 98.2 percent come from parties to the Central American
Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). Other program sugar imports outside the sugar
TRQ for FY 2010 are projected to total 400,000 STRV. Other USDA import
programs include the Refined Sugar Re-export Program, the Sugar-Containing
Products Program, and the Polyhydric Alcohol Program. High-tier tariff sugar
imports and sugar in imported syrups are projected at 10,000 STRV. Imports from
Mexico are projected at 495,000 STRV.
Unlike in FY 2009, Mexico may ship more of its sugar to the United States for
further processing. Over the last 4 years, sugar refineries have demanded an average
of 5.529 million STRV of (mostly raw) sugar. 3/ Estimates of available raw sugar
include 3.325 million STRV from domestic production, 1.035 million STRV from
the raw sugar TRQ, as much as 124,229 STRV from Free Trade Agreements
(FTAs), and 400,000 STRV from re-export program imports. These amounts sum to
4.884 million STRV, or 645,000 STRV below the average raw sugar requirements
of the last 4 years.
Sugar exports for FY 2010 are forecast at 200,000 STRV, an increase of 70,000
STRV above the total estimated for FY 2009. Most of these exports are expected to
go to Mexico, where they are used in Mexico’s product re-export (IMMEX)
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
3/
Through the first 10 months of
FY 2009, refiners have demanded
4.551 million STRV, about 97.9
percent of the amounted
demanded in FY 2008 through the
same corresponding time period.
Based on an analysis of Sweetener
Market Data from the Farm
Service Agency (FSA), ERS
estimates that refiners have
demanded these amounts since
FY 2006: FY 2006, 5.677 million
STRV; FY 2007, 5.350 million
STRV; FY 2008, 5.605 million
STRV; and FY 2009, 5.484
million STRV (97.9 percent of
5.605 million)
Figure 5
U.S. mainland sugarcane area harvested and yield
1,000 acres
1,000
Tons per acre
4.4
950
4.2
900
4.0
850
3.8
800
3.6
750
Area harvested
700
3.4
Yield
650
3.2
600
1990/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09
3.0
Source: USDA, NASS, Crop Production .
Figure 6
Cumulative sugar imports, by source, FY 2009, through August 2009
Short tons raw value
3,000,000
High-duty sugar
2,500,000
Re-export program imports
FTA sugar TRQs
2,000,000
WTO refined sugar TRQ
WTO raw sugar TRQ
1,500,000
Mexico
1,000,000
500,000
0
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
FTA = Free Trade Agreement; TRQ = Tariff-rate quotas; WTO = World Trade Organization.
Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
9
Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 1--USDA estimate of sugar imports, FY 2009
Item
Metric tons, raw value
Short tons, raw value
1,117,195
1,231,497
-7,258
-169,643
-8,001
-186,999
940,294
1,036,497
Allocation to Canada
Late FY 2008 entry
10,300
15,594
11,354
17,189
Allocation to Mexico
Less Mexican shortfall 1/
2,954
-2,954
3,256
-3,256
Global
Late FY 2008 entry
7,090
68,945
7,815
75,998
Re-assigned Mexico refined TRQ
68,278
75,264
Specialty
Base
Additional
1,656
72,575
1,825
80,000
Total refined sugar TRQ
244,438
269,446
CAFTA/DR TRQ - calendar 2009
CAFTA/DR TRQ - calendar 2008
Singapore, Bahrain, Jordan
Peru
110,460
865
42
2,000
121,760
953
46
2,205
Total estimate TRQ entries
1,298,099
1,430,906
Mexico
1,247,392
1,375,000
272,158
300,000
9,072
10,000
Raw sugar TRQ
Less shortfall attributable to Mexico 1/
Less other shortfall
Total raw sugar TRQ
Refined sugar TRQ
Re-export program imports
Sugar syrups, high-tier
Total projected imports
2,826,721
3,115,906
TRQ = Tariff-rate quotas, CAFTA/DR = Central American Free Trade Agreement/Dominican Republic.
1/ Total entries from Mexico, quota and nonquota, reflected below.
Source: USDA, FAS.
10
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 2--USDA estimate of sugar imports in FY 2010
Item
Metric tons, raw value
Short tons, raw value
1,117,195
1,231,497
-7,258
-171,225
-8,001
-188,743
938,712
1,034,753
Allocation to Canada
10,300
11,354
Allocation to Mexico
Less Mexican shortfall 1/
2,954
-2,954
3,256
-3,256
Global
7,090
7,815
Specialty
Base
Additional
1,656
NA
1,825
NA
19,046
20,994
112,700
124,229
42
2,000
46
2,205
1,072,500
1,182,227
Mexico
449,061
495,000
Re-export program imports
362,878
400,000
9,072
10,000
Raw sugar TRQ
Less shortfall attributable to Mexico 1/
Less other shortfall
Total raw sugar TRQ
Refined sugar TRQ
Total refined sugar TRQ
CAFTA/DR TRQ - calendar 2010
Singapore, Bahrain, Jordan
Peru
Total estimate TRQ entries
Sugar syrups, high-tier
Total projected imports
1,893,510
2,087,227
TRQ = Tariff-rate quotas; CAFTA/DR = Central American Free Trade Agreement/Dominican Republic.
1/ Total entries from Mexico, quota and nonquota, reflected below.
Source: USDA, FAS.
11
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
program. Almost all such sugar-containing products are expected to be exported to
the United States, mostly in the form of sugar confectionery.
U.S. Imports and Exports of Sugar-Containing Products
Using Foreign Trade Data from the U.S. Census, ERS projects sugar in product
imports and exports for FY 2009. ERS calculates the ratio of October 2008-July
2009 sugar in product trade relative to the same corresponding period in FY 2008.
This ratio is multiplied by the FY 2008 total to produce the projection for the whole
of FY 2009. Table 3 shows the results.
Overall, sugar in FY 2009 product imports is projected at 1.097 million tons, a
decrease of 7.8 percent from the year before. Sugar in sugar confectionery is
projected lower by 43,959 tons (10.5 percent), sugar in miscellaneous edible
preparations by 21,234 tons (11.0 percent), and sugar in cocoa and preparations by
10,550 tons (3.9 percent). Moreover, sugar in product imports has not varied much
since before FY 2004. The 6-year average (including the projection for FY 2009)
has been 1.157 million tons.
Sugar in U.S. product exports is projected at 708,385 tons in FY 2009, representing
growth of 6.2 percent and the highest level in the reporting period. Net imports (i.e.,
imports less exports) of sugar in products are calculated at 388,733 tons, the lowest
level since FY 2002.
Sugar and Sweetener Deliveries for Human Consumption
FY 2009 Sugar Deliveries
Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use in FY 2009 are estimated at 10.735
million STRV, an increase of 164,000 STRV, or 1.6 percent, over FY 2008.
However, USDA’s Sweetener Market Data (SMD) through 10 months of FY 2009
show deliveries of domestically processed sugar to industrial end users decreasing
by 276,000 STRV, or 5.6 percent, relative to the same corresponding period last
year. Also, SMD shows corresponding deliveries to nonindustrial end users
decreasing by 143,600 STRV, or 4.2 percent. The overall increase is attributable to
increased direct consumption imports totaling 975,400 STRV through July. This
amount is 630,000 STRV more than the same corresponding period in FY 2008.
Although direct consumption imports have raised the estimate of sugar consumption
for both FY 2008 and FY 2009, aggregate sweetener consumption will probably
decrease for FY 2009. Sugar, refined value, is projected at 10.033 million tons in
FY 2009 (10.735 million STRV divided by 1.07) and 9.879 million tons in FY
2008. Projected FY 2009 consumption of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) is 8.238
million tons, dry weight, compared with 8.504 million tons, dry weight, in FY 2008
(table 4). Table 3 indicates that sugar in product imports is 1.097 million tons in FY
2009 and 1.190 million in FY 2008. Aggregate sweetener consumption in FY 2009
is therefore projected at 19.368 million tons, which is 206,000 tons (1.1 percent)
less than the FY 2008 total of 19.574 million. Decreases in HFCS of 3.1 percent and
of sugar in imported products of 7.8 percent have offset the increase in sugar.4/
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Economic Research Service, USDA
4/
Aggregate sweetener
consumption has not varied
much since FY 2000. Figure 7
shows sweetener deliveries (i.e.,
the sum of refined sugar,
HFCS, and sugar in product
imports) from FY 1996 through
projected FY 2009. Equation on
chart shows sweetener
deliveries as a function of trend.
The result, however, shows
insignificant trend coefficient—
not statistically different from
zero.
Table 3--Estimated sugar in U.S. product imports and exports, fiscal years 1995-2009
Fiscal year
Sugar
confectionery
Cocoa and cocoa Cereal and bakers Bread, pastry,
preparations
preparations
cakes, etc.
1995
134,241
68,571
1996
141,627
69,334
1997
158,612
90,479
1998
181,737
99,282
1999
213,601
103,952
2000
233,569
128,841
2001
258,057
147,808
2002
283,689
188,916
2003
347,505
207,826
2004
395,265
215,342
2005
435,454
227,877
2006
504,686
264,992
2007
444,115
282,468
2008
420,612
273,642
2009 (projected)
376,653
263,093
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team.
5,501
7,807
11,984
18,627
19,993
20,006
18,578
19,210
22,678
25,706
25,953
25,085
25,258
25,356
15,986
43,248
47,101
61,443
70,896
83,893
96,742
110,087
118,626
130,672
138,282
142,631
145,661
155,567
154,979
151,771
Misc. edible Carbonated
preparations
soft drinks
1,000 short tons
54,029
25,413
66,464
31,007
68,376
38,482
84,716
39,532
111,400
46,275
122,082
56,554
120,892
63,585
141,362
69,539
146,215
81,566
178,896
92,542
189,485
105,133
192,231
124,242
189,848
128,299
192,495
123,365
171,261
118,355
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Total sugar
in imported
products
Total sugar
in exported
products
331,002
363,339
429,376
494,790
579,114
657,794
719,008
821,341
936,463
1,046,032
1,126,533
1,256,896
1,225,555
1,190,449
1,097,118
290,570
351,219
384,105
374,931
382,139
425,769
474,884
452,898
496,069
537,711
575,237
577,597
568,231
667,220
708,385
Net sugar
40,432
12,120
45,271
119,859
196,975
232,025
244,124
368,443
440,394
508,321
551,296
679,298
657,324
523,229
388,733
Figure 7
Sweetener deliveries: sugar, high fructose corn syrup,
sugar in imported products, FY 1996-2009
Short tons, refined and dry
25,000
Swt.Delv.(2000 to 2009) = 19,047 + 31.9*Trend
T-Stat:
(91.284) (1.460) Adj. R2 = 0.192
20,000
15,000
10,000
Sugar in product imports
5,000
High fructose corn syrup
Sugar
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: Sugar: USDA, FSA, Sweetener Market Data ; High fructose corn syrup, sugar in
products: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team.
Direct Consumption Imports and HFCS: ERS Analysis
Figure 8 shows trends in direct consumption imports since FY 1999. Prior to
September 2005, these imports averaged about 5,200 STRV, a low contributor to
total consumption. After weather-related events in August and September 2005
(prolonged refinery closure in Louisiana, reduced cane sugar production in
Louisiana and Florida), these imports increased in response to increases in the
refined sugar TRQ made by the USDA. With a return to more normal conditions,
direct consumption imports decreased to a monthly average of about 17,600 STRV,
lower than the post-Katrina period but higher than pre-Katrina. With the full
implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on January
1, 2008, average monthly direct consumption imports have increased to 78,400
STRV, through August 2009.
Although HFCS55 consumption has been declining about 60,700 tons per year
since 1999, HFCS42 consumption was increasing about 22,300 tons per year
through 2007. Figure 9 shows monthly HFCS42 deliveries dropping substantially
below trend after January 2008, the same time that direct consumption imports from
Mexico started to increase. Figure 10 does the same for HFCS55, although any
decrease after January 2008 is harder to discern.
To explore this phenomenon further and also the effect of increased monthly
imports on end user sugar deliveries, monthly deliveries of these sweeteners were
regressed on yearly trend, seasonal factors (months of the year), and direct
consumption imports since January 2008.5/ No statistically significant relationship
was found for deliveries of domestically processed sugar to industrial end users. 6/
The equations for the other deliveries are shown in table 5.
For HFCS42, results indicated that on average monthly deliveries of HFCS42 have
decreased by 48.1 percent (coefficient = -0.481, t-stat = 8.834) of the amount of
direct consumption imports through July 2009. For HFCS55, deliveries have
decreased by 17.4 percent (coefficient = -0.174, t-stat = 2.328) of the amount of
14
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
5/
Industrial end users: baking,
cereal, and allied products;
confectionery and related
products; ice cream and dairy
products; beverages; canned,
bottled, and frozen foods; all
other food uses; and nonfood
use. Nonindustrial end users:
hotel, restaurants, and
institutions; wholesale grocers,
jobbers, sugar dealers; retail
grocers, chain stores; all other
uses.
6/
Also, no relationship could be
found between direct
consumption imports and sugar
in imported products.
Table 4--High fructose corn syrup, supply and utilization, actual and projected, FY 1993-2010
Fiscal year
Production
Imports
Supply
1,000 short tons, dry weight
1993
6,942
191
7,133
1994
7,434
158
7,593
1995
7,701
83
7,784
1996
8,012
108
8,119
1997
8,543
121
8,664
1998
9,059
122
9,181
1999
9,295
114
9,409
2000
9,399
124
9,523
2001
9,189
139
9,329
2002
9,345
143
9,487
2003
9,174
144
9,318
2004
9,122
150
9,272
2005
9,118
155
9,273
2006
9,412
170
9,582
2007
9,204
153
9,357
2008
9,074
167
9,241
2009 (proj.)
8,600
159
8,758
2010 (proj.)
9,342
160
9,502
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team.
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Exports
Domestic
disappearance
96
133
113
156
306
369
348
323
257
174
158
153
269
480
568
737
520
851
7,037
7,460
7,671
7,964
8,358
8,812
9,061
9,200
9,072
9,313
9,160
9,119
9,004
9,102
8,789
8,504
8,238
8,651
Figure 8
Direct imports of sugar for consumption, monthly 1999-2009
1,000 Short tons, raw value
160
140
Direct consumption imports
120
Average:1999:1to2005:8
Average: Post-Katrina
100
Average: through 2007
80
Average: since 2008
60
40
20
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: USDA, FSA, Sweetener Market Data .
Figure 9
Domestic shipments of high fructose corn syrup 42 (HFCS42),
monthly, 1999-2009
1,000 tons, dry weight
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
HFCS42 through 2007
HFCS42 since 2008
Linear (HFCS42 through 2007)
200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team.
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Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 5--Regression results: High fructose corn syrup and nonindustrial sugar end user on annual and monthly trend and direct consumption imports
Dependent Variable: HFCS42
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1999:01 2009:10
Included observations: 130
Dependent Variable: HFCS55
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1999:01 2009:10
Included observations: 130
Dependent Variable: sugar deliveries
to non-industrial end users
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1999:01 2009:10
Included observations: 130
Variable 1/ 2/
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
Constant
Annual trend
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
Sugar: delveries to ind.
end users
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
267,542
2,208
-31,233
-32,767
-20,035
-24,174
17,032
14,255
25,844
28,721
23,089
41,424
Sugar: 1-period lag of
delver ies to ind. end users
--
Direct consumption
imports 2008-09
-0.481
6,811
555
4,757
4,729
4,737
4,727
4,725
4,723
4,720
4,724
4,725
4,872
0.054
39.279
3.981
-6.565
-6.929
-4.230
-5.114
3.605
3.018
5.476
6.079
4.886
8.502
-8.834
488,347
-5,746
-12,658
--35,049
-48,435
32,329
20,760
62,646
74,528
42,286
72,357
401,378
1,705
-13,917
-55,105
-132,151
-107,742
-65,440
-78,208
-70,525
-42,923
-48,468
-31,795
34,196
647
6,685
8,071
8,468
7,278
7,498
6,558
6,724
6,525
6,441
7,129
11.738
2.637
-2.082
-6.828
-15.605
-14.804
-8.728
-11.925
-10.489
-6.578
-7.525
-4.460
--
0.190
0.061
3.105
--
-0.274
0.061
-4.528
-0.271
0.070
-3.859
-0.174
8,577
655
6,617
56.937
-8.778
-1.913
6,597
6,588
6,587
6,586
6,586
6,586
6,587
6,828
-5.313
-7.352
4.908
3.152
9.512
11.316
6.419
10.597
0.075
-2.328
R-squared
0.820
0.858
0.878
Adjusted R-squared
0.800
0.845
0.858
S.E. of regression
12,676
18,840
16,397
Log likelihood
-1,405
-1,458
-1,436
Durbin-Watson stat
2.118
2.439
2.018
1/ HFCS-42 equation, indicator variable for 9/2006-9/2008: coefficient value: -8,055; t-stat: 2.264.
2/ Nonindustrial sugar equation, indicator variables for 12/2003: coeff.v.=145,395,t-stat=8.559; for 12/2004:coeff.v.=104,035, t-stat=6.084;
for 12/2006-3/2007: coeff.v.=-45,462,t-stat=4.982; and 12/2007-3/2008: coeff.v.=-24,638, t-stat=2.665.
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team.
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
direct consumption imports. Refined sugar deliveries to nonindustrial end users
have decreased by 27.1 percent (coefficient = 0.271, t-stat = 3.859) of the amount of
direct consumption imports. The sum of the direct consumption import coefficients
across the three equations is statistically indistinguishable from -1.0. These results
would support the contention that direct consumption imports have been
substituting primarily for HFCS and to a lesser extent, for refined sugar to
nonindustrial end users. Note that this relationship could change in the future,
especially as sugar imports from Mexico decline as forecast in the WASDE
for FY 2010.
Figure 11 shows monthly 2004-09 U.S. beet sugar spot prices from Milling and
Baking News and unit import values from the U.S. Census Bureau for Mexican
refined sugar and Canadian HFCS42.7/ This latter variable serves as a proxy for
unobservable U.S. HFCS42 prices. As can be seen, prior to 2008, there has been no
detectable relationship among these prices. Starting in March 2008, the unit values
of refined sugar from Mexico and HFCS42 from Canada begin to track. The
correlation between the unit values is 0.89 from March 2008 through June 2009. In
July, the gap between the unit values start to widen as the refined sugar unit value
starts to increase (probably reflecting the rise in refined prices in Mexico). Through
July, the correlation drops to 0.84. If the gap continues to widen due to rising sugar
prices, sugar substituting for HFCS can only continue at higher cost to
the purchaser.
7/
Unit import value is the total
value of imports of a product
divided by the quantity
imported of the product.
FY 2010 Sugar Deliveries and Stocks
Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use for FY 2010 are projected at 10.140
million STRV, a very large decrease of nearly 600,000 STRV, or 5.5 percent,
relative to FY 2009.
Ending fiscal year stocks are projected as the difference between total supply and
total demand. Beginning stocks are estimated at 1.307 million STRV, the lowest
carry-in since FY 1996. Although sugar production is 454,000 STRV higher than in
FY 2009 (almost all from beet sugar), imports are projected 1.029 million STRV
lower. With deliveries for human consumption projected at 10.140 million STRV,
ending stocks are calculated at 844,000 STRV. The resulting ending-year stocks-touse ratio is 8.0 percent, the lowest level since FY 1958.
The projection for FY 2010 may represent a lower bound. It was derived by using
estimated relationships between sugar end user deliveries and HFCS (table 6).8/ It
was further assumed that about one-third of imports from Mexico would be for
direct consumption (contrasts with about two-thirds for FY 2009), that the specialty
sugar portion of the refined sugar TRQ would be the same as FY 2009, and that the
raw and refined sugar TRQs would not be set higher than minimum access levels
consistent with international trade commitments.
An implication of the approach is that HFCS deliveries increase to recapture a
goodly proportion of the market share in FY 2010 lost to sugar from Mexico in FYs
2008 and 2009. Table 4 shows HFCS domestic disappearance at 8.651 million tons,
dry weight, an increase of 413,000 tons, or 5 percent, relative to FY 2009. It
remains to be seen if consumer preferences can change sufficiently to accept HFCS
in products that had made the switch to sugar and/or if firms producing HFCS will
aggressively market their product to recapture markets lost to sugar.
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
8/
Sugar deliveries to
nonindustrial end users is the
same as in table 5.
Figure 10
Domestic shipments of high fructose corn syrup 55 (HFCS55), monthly,
1999-2009
1,000 tons, dry weight
600
550
500
450
400
350
HFCS55 through 2007
300
HFCS55 since 2008
250
Linear (HFCS55 through 2007)
200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team.
Figure 11
Monthly refined sugar and HFCS42 pricing, 2004-2009
Cents /lb (HFCS42 dry weight basis)
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
Refined beet sugar spot price, Midwest
HFCS42 (Canadian unit import value)
Refined sugar from Mexico (unit import value)
5.00
0.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Milling and Baking News.
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Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 6--Regression results: High fructose corn syrup and sugar end user deliveries regressed on annual and monthly trend and direct consumption imports
Variable 1/ 2/
Constant
Annual trend
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
Sugar: delveries to ind.
end users
Sugar: 1-period lag of
delver ies to ind. end users
Direct consumption
imports since 2007
Dependent Variable: sugar deliveries
to industrial end users
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1992:01 2009:10
Included observations: 214
Dependent Variable: sugar deliveries
to non-industrial end users
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1999:01 2009:10
Included observations: 130
Dependent Variable: HFCS
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1999:01 2009:10
Included observations: 130
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
451,036
1,742
-9,453
-67,827
-107,582
-66,146
-73,337
-19,740
-45,881
-28,071
--32,605
--
4,227
326
5,346
5,250
5,250
5,250
5,234
5,234
5,234
5,234
106.693
5.348
-1.768
-12.921
-20.494
-12.600
-14.012
-3.772
-8.766
-5.363
401,378
1,705
--13,917
-55,105
-132,151
-107,742
-65,440
-78,208
-70,525
-42,923
-48,468
-31,795
34,196
647
11.738
2.637
5,224
-6.241
762,983
-4,306
--42,669
-30,783
-54,029
-71,680
50,253
35,872
89,234
103,379
66,284
114,185
6,685
8,071
8,468
7,278
7,498
6,558
6,724
6,525
6,441
7,129
-2.082
-6.828
-15.605
-14.804
-8.728
-11.925
-10.489
-6.578
-7.525
-4.460
--
0.190
0.061
3.105
--
--
-0.274
0.061
-4.528
--
--
-0.271
0.070
-3.859
-0.608
13,860
1,029
55.049
-4.184
11,083
11,031
11,045
11,027
11,023
11,020
11,015
11,020
11,024
11,373
-3.850
-2.791
-4.892
-6.501
4.559
3.255
8.101
9.381
6.013
10.040
0.118
-5.164
R-squared
0.831
0.878
0.848
Adjusted R-squared
0.818
0.858
0.832
S.E. of regression
19,084
16,397
29,591
Log likelihood
-2,405
-1,436
-1,516
Durbin-Watson stat
2.026
2.018
2.315
1/ Industrial sugar equation, indicator variables for 1/1992-8/1993:coeff.v=-31,253,t-stat=5.759;for 12/1997-11/2001:coeff.v.=32,103,t-stat=9.786;for 1/2004:
coeff.v.=-142,394,t-stat=7.232; for 5/2006-1/2007:coeff.v.=-25,936,t-stat=3.793; for 2/2008-10/2008:coeff.v.=29,214, t-stat=4.185.
2/ Nonindustrial sugar equation, indicator variables for 12/2003: coeff.v.=145,395,t-stat=8.559; for 12/2004:coeff.v.=104,035, t-stat=6.084;
for 12/2006-3/2007: coeff.v.=-45,462,t-stat=4.982; and 12/2007-3/2008: coeff.v.=-24,638, t-stat=2.665.
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team.
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Mexican Sugar and HFCS
Mexico sugar production for fiscal year (FY) 2010 is forecast at 5.500 million
metric tons, raw value (MTRV), up 240,000 MTRV from this year’s disappointing
production total of 5.260 million MTRV (table 7). For FY 2010, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects sugarcane area to be about the same as
in FY 2009 but expects some recovery in sugarcane yield—up from 64.2 metric tons
per hectare to 69.3 mt (figs. 12 and 13). Even so, the FY 2010 yield
forecast is still below the 10-year average and may be optimistic. Certain
sugarcane-producing regions in Mexico have continued experiencing dry growing
conditions. It is also unclear to what extent use of chemical/fertilizer inputs has
recovered from the 2008/09 crop year. Although dollar prices of imported chemical
and fertilizer inputs have been less this year than last, an offset has resulted from the
depreciation of the Mexican peso by about 30 percent since August 2008.
Sugar prices in Mexico have risen substantially from the low levels experienced in
late winter 2009 (figs. 14 and 15). The Mexico City refined sugar price has risen
136 percent since February 2009, averaging over 45 cents per pound (lb) in
September 2009. The Mexico City estandar sugar price has also averaged over 45
cents per lb in September, rising 175 percent since its low in February. These high
prices are a recognition that sugar exported to the United States and lower-thanexpected production have left Mexico with inadequate supplies to meet domestic
demand through the remainder of the calendar year.
Since August, the Government of Mexico has announced three tariff-rate quotas
totaling 900,000 mt, or 954,000 MTRV (table 8). Nicaragua receives a 10-percent
duty-free allocation of the quota amounts, with the remainder available to all other
countries at a reduced tariff. To date, two allocations have been made for a total of
550,000 mt. All sugar must enter by December 31, 2009.
In the September 2009 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE), the USDA estimated FY 2009 imports to Mexico at 215,000 MTRV, of
which 115,000 MTRV is made up of imports of U.S. refined sugar under USDA’s
Refined Sugar Re-export Program. This amount is assumed to be destined for
Mexico’s sugar-containing products export program, IMMEX. The remainder is
sourced from the announced tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) that are estimated to enter
before September 30, 2009.
The USDA forecasts FY 2010 imports at 710,000 MTRV. Imports from the United
States for the IMMEX program are forecast at 175,000 MTRV. The remainder
(535, 000 MTRV) is sourced from the first two announced TRQs and are projected
to enter after September 30, 2009 but before December 31, 2009.9/ The third quota
of 300,000 mt was announced after the September 2009 WASDE and is therefore
not included in the import projection.
Exports from Mexico are projected at 450,000 MTRV, a greater proportion of
which may be estandar sugar than in FY 2009. Given projected limitations on the
supply of raw sugar in the United States, cane sugar refineries may turn increasingly
to Mexico to meet their needs. Exports of refined sugar to the United States,
however, could prove significant, given supplier relationships that have been
developed since the completion of the phase-in period of the North American Free
Trade Agreement.
21
Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
9/
TRQs announced on
August 6 and September 7
sum to 600,000 mt, or
636,000 MTRV, of which
100,000 MTRV enters
before the end of
September, leaving
536,000 (rounded to
535,000) MTRV to enter.
That amount plus 175,000
MTRV from the United
States yields the 710,000
MTRV.
Figure 12
Mexico sugarcane area for harvest, by region, 1999-2010
Hectares
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
Gulf
Pacific
Northeast
100,000
South
Central
Northwest
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: CNIAA; USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team (projection).
Figure 13
Mexico sugarcane yield, 1999-2009, 2010 (projected)
Metric tons/hectare
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
y = -0.1183x + 71.909
R2 = 0.0153
Cane yield
Linear (Cane yield)
62
60
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: CNIAA; USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team (projection).
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Economic Research Service, USDA
Figure 14
Monthly refined sugar prices, Mexico and United States,
2007 through September 2009
Cents/lb (HFCS42, dry weight basis)
50.00
Refined beet sugar spot price, Midwest
Refinado price, Mexico City
Refined sugar from Mexico (unit import value)
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
2007
2008
2009
HFCS = High fructose corn syrup.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Milling and Baking News; Economia, SNIIC.
Figure 15
Monthly raw and estandar sugar prices, Mexico, 2007 through
September 2009
Cents/lb (HFCS42, dry weight basis)
50.00
45.00
Estandar price, Mexico City
40.00
Raw sugar from Mexico (unit import value)
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
2007
2008
HFCS = High fructose corn syrup.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Economia, SNIIC.
2009
23
Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 7--Mexico: Sugar production and supply and sugar and high fructose corn syrup utilization
Fiscal year (Oct/Sept)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2009 1/
2010 1/
Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
941
4,979
37
1,063
5,220
43
1,548
5,169
52
1,172
5,229
63
1,194
5,330
327
1,237
6,149
268
1,965
5,604
240
1,294
5,633
474
1,718
5,852
226
1,975
5,260
215
665
5,500
710
Supply
5,957
6,326
6,769
6,464
6,851
7,654
7,809
7,401
7,796
7,450
6,875
4,445
131
4,481
142
5,004
180
5,097
135
5,380
220
5,279
282
5,326
323
5,133
390
5,065
475
5,140
400
5,184
5,232
5,600
5,561
5,649
5,523
5,090
414
-360
5,144
4,576
4,623
5,540
5,540
318
155
413
38
14
128
866
160
677
1,245
450
Total use
4,894
4,778
5,597
5,270
5,614
5,689
6,515
5,683
5,821
6,785
5,990
Ending stocks
1,063
1,548
1,172
1,194
1,237
1,965
1,294
1,718
1,975
665
885
Stocks-to-human consumption
23.9
34.5
23.4
23.4
23.0
37.2
24.3
Stocks-to-use
21.7
32.4
20.9
22.7
22.0
34.6
19.9
HFCS consumption, (dry weight)
580
600
263
130
135
355
667
1/ Forecast.
HFCS = High fructose corn syrup.
Source: USDA, FAS, Production, Supply, and Distribution online (historical data); USDA, WASDE (forecast data).
33.5
30.2
698
38.8
33.9
782
13.1
9.8
610
17.2
14.8
900
Disappearance
Human consumption
Other consumption
Miscellaneous
Total
Exports
2004
2005
1,000 Metric Tons
Table 8--Mexico 2009 sugar import quota program, through Sept. 30
Date announced
Quota amount
Country of origin
Nicaragua (duty-free)
All others
Date of auction
Tender amount
Aug. 6
393,000
39,300
353,700
Sept. 2
100,000
Sept. 7
207,000
20,700
186,300
Sept. 18
450,000
Sept. 18
300,000
30,000
270,000 Sept. 30 (canceled)
343,000 (canceled)
Total (9/29/2009)
900,000
90,000
Source: Government of Mexico, Secretariat of Economy.
810,000
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Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
550,000
Sugar deliveries for human consumption are projected at 5.140 million MTRV,
and deliveries of domestic sugar for the IMMEX program are projected at 400,000
MTRV. Ending-year stocks, the difference between total supply and use, are
projected at 885,000 MTRV. The resulting stocks-to-consumption ratio is
17.2 percent.
25
Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Maple Syrup
Following 2008’s 26-percent production increase, U.S. maple syrup output in 2009
jumped another 22 percent to 2.33 million gallons, the highest since 1944.
Temperatures were largely favorable for sap flow in the major States where the
number of taps and yield per tap also increased. These States include Vermont,
Maine, New York, and Wisconsin. Yield per tap in New England expanded 26
percent in 2009 and, combined with 3 percent more taps, boosted syrup produced in
the region by 30 percent.
Given that U.S. imports of maple sugar (Harmonized System (HS) 170220) from
Canada in the first half of 2009 are close to 13,000 metric tons, total supply—
domestic production plus imports—for the year is likely to be below 2008’s level
when year-to-date import volume was 15,175 metric tons. U.S. maple syrup imports
were 260 percent larger than domestic production in 2008. Prices may remain
around 2008’s $40.50-per-gallon average unless demand weakens significantly due
to the current economic downturn. Although 43 gallons of maple tree sap were
needed on average to distill a gallon of syrup in 2009, up from 39 gallons in 2008,
lower fuel oil prices this year are likely to keep prices relatively stable in the short
term. In addition, if more than half of domestic syrup sales are in the bulk market as
they were in 2008, prices tend to be lower (than if more sales are in the retail and
wholesale markets).
Despite 26-percent higher syrup production in 2008 and a sizable import volume
from Canada, prices hit an average $40.50 per gallon last year, the highest on
record. Following the trend of other food commodity prices in 2008, high maple
syrup prices raised the value of U.S. production by 56 percent to $77.5 million,
bringing up the average value per tap to a record $9.31 in 2008 from $6.09 in 2007.
Although syrup production was up sharply in 2008, import volume was smaller and
exports larger, thus domestic supply dropped 10 percent to 6.93 million gallons
from 7.7 million gallons in 2007. As a result, U.S. consumption of maple syrup fell
14 percent. Syrup consumption per household dropped from 8.1 ounces in 2007 to
6.9 ounces in 2008, a 15-percent decline. About 82 percent of maple syrup
consumed in the United States last year was imported from Canada.
As the number of tree taps in the U.S. grew from below 7 million in 2001 to 8.7
million taps in 2009, average yield and thus total syrup production climbed as well.
Average yield per tap was higher in the New England States as a group than in the
other U.S. regions in the past decade. Nevertheless, because of the generally higher
price per gallon of syrup from Midwest States, their value per tap typically
exceeded other States.
The length of the tapping season was 10 percent shorter in New England in 2009
than in 2008. The shorter season limited the potential volume of syrup production
this year in the region but boosted the average amount of syrup produced per tap per
day in the 2009 tapping season. As a result, average syrup production per tap per
day exceeded 1 ounce on average for the New England States in 2009 for the first
time since 2004.
26
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Figure 16
Maple syrup: Production and price
1,000 gallons
2,500
Dollars/gallon
45
Production
2,000
40
Price
35
30
1,500
25
20
1,000
15
10
500
5
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: USDA, NASS, Maple Syrup .
27
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Tight Supplies Expected To Sustain High U.S. Sugar
Prices into 2009/10 1/
1/
While global food commodity prices as a whole have declined by more than a third
since their recent peak in mid-2008, U.S. and global sugar prices have moved in the
opposite direction. Since the beginning of 2008, U.S. (wholesale) refined sugar
prices have climbed roughly 40 percent, with monthly prices exceeding 30 cents per
pound since June 2008 (fig. A1). Dating back to 1960, U.S. annual average refined
sugar prices have exceeded 30 cents per pound (lb) only five previous times, most
recently in 2005/06, when Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma disrupted U.S. sugar
production and refining capacity.
Domestically, the price increases are most notable for wholesale refined sugar, with
lesser gains for raw (unrefined) and retail sugar. Starting from much lower levels,
global refined sugar prices have climbed nearly 60 percent since the beginning of
2009, moving from under 16 cents/lb in January to nearly 25 cents/lb in August.
Due to import restrictions, the United States is not highly integrated into global
sugar markets (outside of Mexico), so domestic price movements are mostly related
to developments within the North American sugar and sweeteners market.
However, the more recent rise in global prices—which occurred for independent
reasons—will indirectly support U.S. prices in the coming year. The already low
domestic stocks-to-use ratio—estimated at a 33-year low of 11.8 percent in
2008/09—is projected to decline even further to 8.0 percent in 2009/10, partly due
to an anticipated decline in imports.
As with the high food commodity prices during 2007-2008, a variety of causes
contributed to the recent upswing in U.S. and global sugar prices. Developments in
the past year (2008/09) and prospects for 2009/10 are largely guided by the
following factors:
•
Increased use of sugar in recent years by the domestic food and beverage
industry in place of high-fructose corn syrup.
•
Reduced sugar production in 2008/09 as U.S. beet sugar producers turned
to other crops offering higher returns.
•
A disruption to U.S. sugar-refining capacity caused by a refinery explosion
in February 2008.
•
A projected decline in 2009/10 U.S. sugar imports from Mexico, where
prices are also climbing.
•
Limited flexibility to increase imports from other countries beyond
minimum access levels established by the U.S. tariff-rate quota (TRQ)
system.
28
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
The authors are Erik
Dohlman and Stephen Haley,
Senior Economists with
Market and Trade Economics
Division, Economic Research
Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture.
Figure A1
Sugar prices move higher as other commodity prices decline
Sugar prices (cents/lb)
60.0
50.0
Food commodity index
U.S. refined (retail)
U.S. wholesale refined
U.S. raw
World refined
Food price
index (right axis)
250
200
40.0
150
30.0
100
20.0
50
10.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sources: Food commodity price index - International Monetary Fund: International
Financial Statistics ; Sugar prices - USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Yearbook Tables.
(http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Sugar/data.htm#yearbook).
0
Sugar Accounts for a Rising Share of Domestic Sweetener Use
Although rising domestic sugar prices are largely tied to supply factors, underlying
demand-side trends related to the distribution of sweetener use in the United States
have also played a role. Overall sweetener use (sugar, high-fructose corn syrup,
sugar in product imports) has been fairly stable during this decade, but the share
accounted for by sugar has recently grown at the expense of high fructose corn
syrup (HFCS).
For the first time, HFCS deliveries exceeded sugar deliveries on several occasions
between 2002 and 2004, but sugar deliveries have moved back ahead of HFCS
deliveries by a growing margin since 2007 (fig. A2). HFCS typically sells at 20-40
percent below wholesale refined sugar in the United States, but HFCS brought a
premium in early 2008—a time when corn prices were very high—and HFCS prices
have remained close to sugar prices since that time (fig. A3).
The narrowing price differential and perhaps other nonprice factors have
contributed to substitution of sugar for HFCS in the U.S. sweeteners market.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) September 2009
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), U.S. sugar deliveries
for food reached 10.74 million short tons in 2008/09, up 8 percent from a 10-year
average of 9.95 million short tons and the highest level since the early 1970s.
29
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Figure A2
U.S. sugar deliveries climb further above HFCS deliveries
Quarterly deliveries (thousand short tons)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Sugar deliveries
1,000
500
1992
1995
1998
2001
HFCS deliveries
2004
2007
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables.
(http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Sugar/data.htm#yearbook). HFCS = High fructose corn syrup.
Note: sugar is in raw value, HFCS is dry weight.
Figure A3
Price differential between sugar and HFCS narrows
Ratio of HFCS to refined wholesale beet sugar prices
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Ratio (HFCS42)
Ratio (HFCS55)
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables.
(http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Sugar/data.htm#yearbook). HFCS = High fructose corn
syrup.
30
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Attractive Prices for Alternative Crops Diminish Beet Sugar Production
in 2008/09
Over the past decade, U.S. sugar production has averaged 8.23 million short tons
per year, with sugar beets accounting for roughly 55-60 percent of production.
Although both sugarcane and sugar beet area vary year-to-year, sugar beet area
tends to fluctuate more than sugarcane area does, reflecting sugar beets’ shorter
production cycle (1 year vs. 3-4 years) and greater responsiveness to alternative
crop prices. In 2008/09, prices for sugar beet alternatives, such as corn, soybeans,
wheat, and other crops, were far more attractive to farmers than at any time since
1990, which induced area away from sugar beet plantings (fig. A4). As a result,
sugar beet plantings fell 14 percent to 1.09 million acres in 2008/09—the lowest
plantings since 1983.
Sugar beet yields were a record 26.7 tons per acre in 2008/09, but the production of
sugar from sugar beets fell 10 percent (461,000 tons) from the previous year.
Reduced sugar beet production more than offset a very small increase in production
of sugar from sugar cane and brought overall production down 7 percent to 7.57
million tons. Combined with high deliveries (use) of domestic sugar in 2008/09, the
shortfall in U.S. sugar production pushed the U.S. sugar stocks-to-use ratio to a 33year low of 11.8 percent, down from 15.2 percent the year before and a 10-year
average of 17 percent (fig. A5).
Figure A4
U.S. sugar beet area planted and previous year's ratio of sugar
beet to alternative crop unit values 1/
Million acres
Ratio 2/
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
Area planted
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Ratio (left axis)
2002
2004
2006
2008
1/ Excludes California, except for Imperial Valley. 2/ Ratio of national sugarbeet return per acre to areaplanted weighted-average of alternative crop returns, aggregated up from State district-level NASS crop
production and value data for all beet producing districts. Alternative crops: barley, cotton, dry beans, corn,
potatoes, soybeans, wheat. 2009 Preliminary. Source: USDA, NASS, Crop Production and Crop Values ;
Ratio calculated by Sugar and Sweeteners Team.
31
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Figure A5
Deliveries exceed production by a widening margin the past 2 years
Thousand short tons, raw value
12,000
Production
Stocks-to-use ratio
25.0
Deliveries
imports
Stocks-to-use
10,000
20.0
8,000
15.0
6,000
10.0
4,000
5.0
2,000
0.0
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Yearbook tables. (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/
Sugar/data.htm#yearbook). 2009/10 Projected.
Loss of Sugar-Refining Capacity Widens Gap Between Raw and Refined
Sugar Prices
In addition to reduced sugar beet area in 2008/09, which lowered domestic raw
sugar production for the second consecutive year, the availability of refined sugar
has been disrupted since February 2008 by an explosion at the Imperial Sugar
refinery in Georgia. The explosion immediately took approximately 15 percent of
U.S. sugar-refining capacity offline and contributed to much larger increases in
wholesale prices for refined beet sugar than in prices for raw sugar.
Between February and July 2008, refined beet sugar prices increased 44 percent
whereas raw sugar prices rose by 18 percent. With the plant remaining largely
offline until July 2009, U.S. refining capacity use—which averaged about 90
percent in the 2 years preceding the explosion—has been running near or above full
capacity since the explosion (fig. A6). The Imperial Sugar Company reported that it
operated at about 25 percent of normal capacity in August 2009 and would
complete restoration of packing facilities at the factory by the end of 2009. This
completion may contribute to a narrowing of the unusually large gap between
refined wholesale and raw sugar prices in the United States.
32
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Figure A6
Monthly sugar refiners' capacity use, 2004/05-2008/09
Percent
140
120
Monthly refining capacity use
Pre- and post-refinery loss average
100
80
60
40
20
0
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Source: USDA, FSA, Sweetener Market Data ; Sugar Journal.
High Global Prices Expected To Push U.S. Imports Down Sharply
From Near-Record Levels in 2008/09
With reduced domestic supplies and the disruption to refining capacity, U.S. sugar
imports increased to a near-record of 3.1 million tons in 2008/09. Record imports
from Mexico—which received duty-free status starting in January 2008—and a
temporary expansion of access to low-tariff imports from other countries helped to
somewhat offset reduced domestic supplies. About two-thirds of Mexican sugar
exports to the United States were refined sugar. The additional imports of low-tariff
refined sugar were authorized by an August 2008 USDA decision to increase the
fiscal year (FY) 2008 refined sugar TRQ by 300,000 short tons, raw value (STRV),
with entry allowed through the end of the calendar year (into FY 2009).
The additional refined sugar imports under the TRQ—and high imports of both raw
and refined sugar from Mexico in 2008/09—eased, but did not eliminate, upward
pressure on refined sugar prices during the marketing year. However, total domestic
supplies are expected to drop 7.5 percent (928,000 STRV) in 2009/10, as lower
beginning stocks and a projected 33-percent decline in total imports more than
offset an increase in domestic production (projected at 8.03 million tons). Higher
global sugar prices and reduced imports from both Mexico and the countries
governed by the U.S. TRQ system are likely to sustain domestic sugar prices at high
levels over the coming year.
33
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
U.S. Imports From Mexico Projected To Drop by Two-Thirds as Mexican
Prices Rise
Sugar imports from Mexico have been duty free under terms of the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) since January 2008, which paved the way for a
large increase in shipments to the United States in 2008/09. Mexican exports to the
United States nearly doubled in 2008/09 to a record 1.375 million tons, but tighter
supplies and rising prices for semi-refined (estandar) sugar in Mexico are projected
to pare exports to the United States by 64 percent in 2009/10.
Exports to the United States were attractive for Mexico in 2008/09 as U.S.
wholesale refined sugar prices climbed past 30 cents/lb, and Mexican estandar
prices hovered mostly below 22 cents/lb through the first half of the marketing year.
However, the strong pace of exports and below-average Mexican production in
2008/09 resulted in a large drawdown of stocks, leaving Mexican ending stocks at a
third the previous year’s level—the lowest in well over a decade. Estandar sugar in
Mexico surged past 30 cents/lb in July 2009 and stood less than 5 cents/lb lower
than U.S. wholesale refined sugar prices in August compared with a gap of 17-18
cents in early 2009.
As a result, Mexico will have far less sugar available to export to the United States,
and prices are likely to be comparatively high. The USDA’s September 2009
WASDE places projected Mexican sugar exports to the United States at 495,000
tons (STRV). To meet domestic needs, Mexico is now projected to import a record
782,000 tons (STRV) in 2009/10, even as international prices have risen to the
highest level of the decade (fig. A7).
Figure A7
Mexico reverts to a net importer as domestic prices rise
Thousand metric tons
1,400
Imports
1,200
Exports
Price
1,000
Cents per pound
40
Mexican estandar prices
(right axis)
35
30
25
800
20
600
15
400
10
200
0
2000
5
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Sugar/data#yearbook.
34
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
U.S. Imports From Other Countries Expected To Dip Further Below
Minimum TRQ Access Levels
The traditionally large gap between U.S. and global sugar prices provides a strong
incentive to export sugar to the United States, but U.S. imports from countries other
than Mexico are governed by a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system, which limits imports
beyond a certain level. A TRQ is a two-tiered tariff for which the average tariff rate
charged depends on the volume of imports. Low tariffs are charged on a preestablished quantity of imports, while higher tariffs (over 15 cents/lb) are charged
on imports beyond that level. Since FY 2000, yearly imports under the sugar TRQ
have averaged 1.48 million STRV. The quantity allocated to refined sugar is
normally a small proportion of the total, amounting to about 2 percent.
While the total quantity of low-tariff sugar imports permitted under the TRQ system
is roughly 1.38 million tons in 2009/10, USDA projections anticipate TRQ imports
of 1.18 million tons, nearly 250,000 tons less than estimated TRQ imports in
2008/09. TRQ imports are projected to decline in 2009/10 for several reasons.
First, the projected shortfall in TRQ imports, at 200,000 tons, is a larger than
normal due to diminished global production and trade in 2008/09, which
contributed to high world sugar prices that are likely to linger into 2009/10 (fig.
A8). The narrowing gap between U.S. and international prices has made the United
States a less attractive export destination. The sugar TRQ is allocated to 40
countries, and it is not unusual for some countries to underfill their TRQ exports to
Figure A8
Global production and trade slips in 2008/09
Million metric tons
Million metric tons
180
100
90
Exports (left axis)
World production
(right axis)
160
80
70
60
140
Brazil
Thailand
India
Production
European Union
Australia
Rest of World
120
100
50
80
40
60
30
20
40
10
20
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note: Data is for centrifugal sugar. EU data is for EU-15 (2000-03), EU-25 (2004-05), and
EU-27 (2006-09). Source: USDA, FAS, Production, Supply, and Distribution Online.
(http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx).
35
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
the United States, but the overall TRQ shortfall is typically well below half the
anticipated 2009/10 level. Global sugar prices have been climbing since the
beginning of 2009 primarily in response to market developments in Brazil and
India, the world’s two leading sugar producers. In Brazil, wet weather (lowering
sucrose content in cane) and a rising share of production devoted to ethanol have
constrained growth in sugar exports. Consecutive poor harvests in India in 2008/09
and 2009/10 have turned the country from a net exporter of 5.8 million tons of sugar
in 2007/08 to a net importer in 2008/09 and 2009/10 (projected).
Second, although the USDA authorized 300,000 tons of additional TRQ entries of
refined sugar in FY 2008 (much of which entered in FY 2009—the 2008/09 crop
year), the USDA has not authorized any above-TRQ entries for FY 2009 or FY
2010. Provisions of the 2008 Farm Act state that additional entries before April 1 of
the next year can be authorized by the USDA only in the event of a sugar shortage
caused by an emergency situation, such as a natural disaster or war. Sugar imports
can be increased after that date for any reason if a shortfall persists, as long as the
increase does not threaten to result in forfeitures to the Commodity Credit
Corporation (CCC).
Prices Expected To Remain Elevated Into 2010
The USDA does not project U.S. or global sugar prices in its monthly WASDE
report. However, tight domestic supplies and a delayed supply response
internationally to higher prices suggest that prices will remain elevated well into the
coming 2009/10 marketing year. Current month (September 2009) futures contract
quotes for world (contract #11, NYBOT, May 2010 contract) and U.S. (contract
#16, ICE, March 2010 contract) raw sugar prices indicate that prices are expected to
remain near or above recent monthly prices. Continued high prices through next
year may induce increased production both domestically and abroad, particularly if
prices for sugar remain attractive compared with those for alternative crops or uses
(e.g., sugar beets vs. alternative crops in the United States or sugar vs. ethanol
in Brazil).
36
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Contacts and Links
Contact Information
Stephen Haley, (202) 694-5247, [email protected] (coordinator)
Andy Jerardo, (202) 694-5266, [email protected] (maple syrup)
Erik Dohlman (202) 694-5308, [email protected] (special article)
Mae Dean Johnson (202) 694-5245, [email protected] (web publishing)
Subscription Information
Subscribe to ERS’ e-mail notification service at http://www.ers.usda.gov/updates/ to
receive timely notification of newsletter availability. Printed copies can be purchased
from the USDA Order Desk by calling 1-800-999-6779 (specify the issue number).
Data
Tables from the Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook are available in the Sugar and
Sweeteners Briefing Room at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/sugar/. They contain
the latest data and historical information on the production, use, prices, imports, and
exports of sugar and sweeteners.
Related Websites
WASDE http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?
documented=1194
Sugar Briefing Room, http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/Sugar/
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37
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-255/May 28, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
E-mail Notification
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Table 9--World ref ined sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and f iscal year 1/
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
:
1st Q.
2n d Q.
3rd Q.
4th Q.
: Calendar
Fiscal
Cents per pound
1991
13.39
13.40
13.86
12.90
12.9 9
13.94
14.73
14.40
13.09
13.03
12.71
12.46
:
13.55
13.28
14.07
12.73
:
13.41
13.71
1992
12.18
11.92
12.19
12.54
12.8 9
13.41
13.41
12.96
12.29
11.94
11.68
11.26
:
12.10
12.95
12.89
11.63
:
12.39
12.67
1993
11.60
11.97
13.05
13.38
13.3 9
12.64
12.20
13.05
12.90
13.23
13.15
12.97
:
12.21
13.14
12.72
13.12
:
12.79
12.42
1994
13.14
14.11
15.46
14.92
15.7 7
16.05
15.54
15.62
15.42
15.46
17.77
18.65
:
14.24
15.58
15.53
17.29
:
15.66
14.62
1995
18.75
18.17
17.45
16.31
17.0 5
19.16
20.27
20.01
16.58
17.29
17.64
17.21
:
18.12
17.51
18.95
17.38
:
17.99
17.97
1996
17.36
17.90
18.14
18.02
17.7 9
18.00
16.99
16.81
15.74
14.87
14.09
13.95
:
17.80
17.94
16.51
14.30
:
16.64
17.41
1997
13.87
13.98
14.05
14.19
14.6 1
14.93
15.07
15.66
14.51
13.58
13.81
13.64
:
13.97
14.58
15.08
13.68
:
14.33
14.48
1998
13.52
12.78
12.23
11.63
12.0 0
11.80
11.65
11.62
10.05
10.00
10.78
10.97
:
12.84
11.81
11.11
10.58
:
11.59
12.36
1999
10.99
10.50
9.85
8.79
9.1 3
9.93
9.47
9.04
8.28
7.85
7.73
7.61
:
10.45
9.28
8.93
7.73
:
9.10
9.81
2000
7.70
7.67
7.83
8.66
9.0 6
10.63
11.38
11.29
11.74
11.76
11.02
10.95
:
7.73
9.45
11.47
11.24
:
9.97
9.10
2001
11.27
10.65
10.26
10.61
11.7 1
12.68
12.60
12.08
10.66
10.19
11.27
11.52
:
10.73
11.67
11.78
10.99
:
11.29
11.35
2002
11.88
10.80
10.81
10.09
10.2 8
10.02
10.23
10.33
9.68
9.72
10.16
10.25
:
11.16
10.13
10.08
10.04
:
10.35
10.59
2003
10.64
11.10
10.51
10.14
9.9 5
9.66
9.84
9.74
8.95
8.39
8.67
9.23
:
10.75
9.92
9.51
8.76
:
9.74
10.06
2004
9.16
9.54
10.59
11.19
10.7 8
10.73
11.81
11.80
11.12
11.21
11.27
11.23
:
9.76
10.90
11.58
11.24
:
10.87
10.25
2005
11.63
12.09
12.02
11.76
11.7 5
12.61
14.70
14.81
14.60
14.18
13.10
15.00
:
11.91
12.04
14.70
14.09
:
13.19
12.47
2006
16.92
19.99
20.45
21.35
21.8 1
20.93
20.95
18.16
17.32
17.92
16.41
15.86
:
19.12
21.36
18.81
16.73
:
19.01
18.35
2007
15.13
14.92
15.59
14.21
14.9 4
14.36
14.13
12.87
12.54
12.56
13.00
13.78
:
15.21
14.50
13.18
13.11
:
14.00
14.91
2008
15.17
16.61
15.79
15.87
14.9 2
16.35
17.06
17.92
17.52
15.07
15.00
14.27
15.86
15.71
17.50
14.78
15.96
15.55
2009
15.67
17.60
17.83
18.38
20.1 0
19.98
21.36
24.89
26.27
17.03
19.49
24.17
1/ Co ntrac t N o. 5 , L on do n Da il y P rice , for re fi ne d su gar , f.o .b. Euro pe , sp ot, th rou gh Ju ne 20 06. Starti ng i n Jul y 2 00 6, spo t p rice rep lac ed b y a vera ge of nea res t futur es mo nth for wh ich an e ntire mon th of pri ces i s a vai la bl e.
Sou rce : Lo nd on Inte rna ti on al Fin an cia l Future s an d Optio ns Exc ha nge (LIFFE ).
38
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
18.87
Table 10--World raw sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fis cal year 1/
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
8.88
8.43
8.27
10.29
14.87
12.57
11.13
11.71
8.40
5.64
8.57
8.06
8.61
10.80
14.43
12.97
11.06
11.06
7.05
5.51
9.22
8.22
10.75
11.71
14.58
13.07
11.17
10.66
6.11
5.54
8.55
9.53
11.30
11.10
13.63
12.43
11.50
10.27
5.44
6.48
7.88
9.62
11.87
11.79
13.49
11.94
11.54
10.17
5.83
7.33
9.37
10.52
10.35
12.04
13.99
12.54
12.02
9.33
6.67
8.72
10.26
10.30
9.60
11.73
13.46
12.83
12.13
9.70
6.11
10.18
9.45
9.78
9.30
12.05
13.75
12.33
12.54
9.50
6.39
11.14
Sep.
Oct.
Cents per pound
9.39
9.10
9.28
8.66
9.52
10.27
12.62
12.75
12.72
11.94
11.87
11.65
12.65
12.86
8.21
8.24
6.98
6.90
10.35
10.96
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10.63
7.96
8.56
6.42
10.33
17.27
11.85
13.75
13.09
10.26
6.81
9.14
7.01
10.51
18.93
11.63
15.16
13.90
9.64
7.27
8.50
8.23
10.57
18.01
11.44
14.60
13.83
9.27
7.12
7.92
8.21
10.19
18.21
10.85
13.68
14.43
9.96
7.33
7.41
8.08
10.23
17.83
10.78
12.23
16.89
9.80
7.07
6.85
8.41
10.45
16.19
11.05
13.29
16.94
9.48
8.02
7.18
9.19
10.89
16.61
12.18
14.90
18.57
8.77
7.86
7.30
8.99
11.09
13.58
11.66
15.58
22.37
8.60
8.54
6.70
9.10
11.59
12.42
11.61
14.74
23.11
7.15
8.84
6.74
9.84
12.40
12.09
11.86
12.99
Nov.
Dec.
:
1st Q .
2nd Q .
3rd Q.
4th Q.
: Calendar
Fiscal
8.79
8.54
10.10
13.88
11.96
11.29
13.19
8.73
6.54
10.02
9.03
8.15
10.47
14.76
12.40
11.38
12.90
8.59
6.00
10.23
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
8.89
8.24
9.21
10.93
14.63
12.87
11.12
11.14
7.19
5.56
8.60
9.89
11.17
11.64
13.70
12.30
11.69
9.92
5.98
7.51
9.70
9.79
9.47
12.13
13.31
12.34
12.44
9.14
6.49
10.56
8.97
8.45
10.28
13.80
12.10
11.44
12.98
8.52
6.48
10.40
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
9.04
9.09
10.03
12.13
13.44
12.24
12.06
9.68
6.54
8.51
9.26
9.22
9.58
11.25
13.86
12.40
11.67
10.80
7.05
7.53
7.80
8.87
6.83
9.65
12.86
12.38
11.83
12.87
8.02
8.81
6.95
10.19
15.09
12.47
12.47
12.31
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
10.18
7.35
8.73
7.22
10.47
18.07
11.64
14.50
13.61
9.68
7.17
7.39
8.23
10.29
17.41
10.89
13.07
16.09
8.95
8.14
7.06
9.09
11.19
14.20
11.82
15.07
21.35
7.66
8.84
6.84
9.89
13.45
12.31
12.05
12.72
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
9.12
7.88
7.51
8.61
11.35
15.50
11.60
13.84
9.80
7.58
8.01
7.85
10.46
15.78
11.67
13.67
15.94
1/ Co ntrac t N o. 1 1 f.o.b. stow ed C ari bb ea n po rt, in clu di ng B razil , b ul k spo t p rice , p lu s fre ig ht to Fa r E ast.
Sou rce : Ne w Yo rk Boa rd of Trad e (ww w.n yb ot.com ).
39
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 11--U.S. raw sugar price, duty fee paid, New York, mont hly, quarterly, and by calendar and fis cal year 1/
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Cents per pound
Nov.
Dec.
:
1st Q .
2nd Q.
3rd Q.
4th Q.
: Calendar
Fiscal
1991
1992
21. 86
21. 38
21.42
21.56
21.46
21.36
21.23
21.38
21.29
21.04
21.42
20.92
21. 25
21. 10
21.83
21.34
22.06
21.55
21.76
21.61
21.75
21.39
21.50
21.11
:
:
21.58
21.43
21.31
21.11
21.71
21.33
21.67
21.37
:
:
21. 57
21. 31
21.89
21.39
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
20. 76
22. 00
22. 65
22. 39
21. 88
21. 85
22. 41
21.16
21.95
22.69
22.68
22.07
21.79
22.38
21.56
21.95
22.46
22.57
21.81
21.74
22.55
21.76
22.08
22.76
22.71
21.79
22.14
22.57
21.36
22.18
23.10
22.62
21.70
22.31
22.65
21.42
22.44
23.09
22.48
21.62
22.42
22.61
21. 89
22. 72
24. 47
21. 80
22. 04
22. 66
22. 61
21.85
21.84
23.18
22.51
22.21
22.19
21.24
21.97
21.78
23.21
22.38
22.30
21.92
20.10
21.80
21.58
22.67
22.37
22.27
21.67
19.50
21.87
21.57
22.60
22.12
21.90
21.83
17.45
22.00
22.35
22.63
22.14
21.93
22.19
17.87
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
21.16
21.97
22.60
22.55
21.92
21.79
22.45
21.51
22.23
22.98
22.60
21.70
22.29
22.61
21.90
22.11
23.62
22.23
22.18
22.26
21.32
21.89
21.83
22.63
22.21
22.03
21.90
18.27
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
21. 62
22. 04
22. 96
22. 40
21. 96
22. 06
21. 16
21.49
22.05
22.76
22.50
22.00
22.09
22.07
2000
17. 70
17.24
18.46
19.43
19.12
19.31
17. 64
18.12
18.97
21.15
21.39
20.56 : 17.80
19.29
18.24
2001
20. 81
21.18
21.40
21.51
21.19
21.04
20. 64
21.10
20.87
20.90
21.19
21.43 : 21.13
21.25
20.87
2002
21. 03
20.69
19.92
19.73
19.52
19.93
20. 86
20.91
21.65
21.94
22.22
22.03 : 20.55
19.73
21.14
2003
21. 62
21.91
22.14
21.87
21.80
21.62
21. 32
21.26
21.34
20.92
20.91
20.37 : 21.89
21.76
21.31
2004
20. 54
20.57
20.86
20.88
20.69
20.03
20. 14
20.10
20.47
20.31
20.40
20.55 : 20.66
20.53
20.24
2005
20. 57
20.36
20.54
21.21
21.96
21.89
21. 94
20.49
21.10
21.71
21.83
21.74 : 20.49
21.69
21.18
2006
23. 61
24.05
23.10
23.56
23.48
23.32
22. 44
21.38
21.27
20.22
19.66
19.59 : 23.59
23.45
21.70
2007
20. 03
20.59
20.85
20.91
21.27
21.33
22. 72
21.80
21.42
20.56
20.25
20.12 : 20.49
21.17
21.98
20.24
20.21 20.65
20.54
20.83
21.80 23.76
23.15 23.10
21.46
19.83
20.00
20.37
21.06
23.34
2008
20.15
19.83 19.75
21.58
21.64
22.47 23.02
26.18 28.91
19.91
21.90
26.04
2009
1/ Contract No. 14, duty fee paid New York. Average of neares t futures mont h for which an entire mont h of prices will be available. For example, April 2001's price
average of 21.51 cents is the average of closes for the July 2001 f ut ures during the mont h of April since there was not a full month of May 2001 futures in
April (the May 2001 futures expired April 10, July 2001 became t he nearest fut ures , so July 2001 was us ed for the entire month of April).
Source: New York Board of Trade (htt ps:/ /www.theice. com/mark etdata/reportcenter/reports. htm?reportId=10)
21.03
21.17
22.06
20.73
20.42
21.76
19.82
20.31
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
19. 09
21. 11
20. 87
21. 42
20. 46
21. 28
22. 14
20. 99
18.40
21.07
20.65
21.76
20.54
20.94
22.62
20.87
21.30
21.27
22.07
40
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
20.43
Table 12--U.S. wholesale refined beet sugar price, Midwest markets, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
Ma y
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct .
N ov.
Dec.
:
1st Q.
2nd Q.
3rd Q.
4t h Q.
:
Calendar
Fiscal
Cents per pound
1991
26.88
26.50
26.50
26.13
26.00
25.75
25.50
25.50
25.00
24.94
24.60
24.50
:
26.63
25.96
25.33
24.68
:
25.65
26.57
1992
25.40
26.50
26.50
26.50
26.40
26.00
25.00
25.00
25.00
24.90
24.13
23.90
:
26.13
26.30
25.00
24.31
:
25.44
25.53
1993
23.25
23.00
23.00
23.50
23.50
23.50
25.50
27.75
27.50
27.50
27.25
26.50
:
23.08
23.50
26.92
27.08
:
25.15
24.45
1994
25.75
25.50
25.50
24.50
24.75
25.25
25.00
25.00
24.70
25.00
25.38
25.50
:
25.58
24.83
24.90
25.29
:
25.15
25.60
1995
25.50
25.50
25.50
25.50
25.13
25.10
24.75
24.75
25.50
25.75
28.13
28.85
:
25.50
25.24
25.00
27.58
:
25.83
25.26
1996
28.69
29.00
29.50
29.50
29.70
29.50
29.50
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
29.00
:
29.06
29.57
29.17
29.00
:
29.20
28.84
1997
29.00
29.00
28.13
28.00
28.00
27.50
27.00
26.65
26.38
24.90
25.00
25.50
:
28.71
27.83
26.68
25.13
:
27.09
28.06
1998
25.50
25.50
25.50
25.50
26.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
26.50
26.90
27.00
27.00
:
25.50
25.83
26.17
26.97
:
26.12
25.66
1999
27.20
27.13
27.00
27.00
27.00
27.00
27.00
27.00
27.00
26.00
26.00
25.20
:
27.11
27.00
27.00
25.73
:
26.71
27.02
2000
23.38
22.25
21.50
21.00
19.75
19.00
19.00
19.00
20.70
21.25
21.00
21.80
:
22.38
19.92
19.57
21.35
:
20.80
21.90
2001
23.13
22.75
22.00
20.50
21.38
21.90
22.50
22.50
24.63
25.75
26.20
26.50
:
22.63
21.26
23.21
26.15
:
23.31
22.11
2002
26.75
26.00
25.95
24.63
24.50
24.00
24.00
25.40
26.25
26.75
27.40
27.88
:
26.23
24.38
25.22
27.34
:
25.79
25.49
2003
27.80
26.50
27.13
27.63
28.00
28.00
27.63
25.50
24.00
24.70
23.94
23.63
:
27.14
27.88
25.71
24.09
:
26.21
27.02
2004
23.70
23.50
23.50
23.50
23.50
23.50
23.50
23.50
23.50
23.50
23.38
23.20
:
23.57
23.50
23.50
23.36
:
23.48
23.66
2005
23.50
23.50
23.25
23.80
24.75
25.88
26.00
26.75
40.10
40.00
40.00
36.90
:
23.42
24.81
30.95
38.97
:
29.54
25.63
2006
34.50
36.50
37.10
36.38
35.00
35.00
35.00
34.50
31.20
28.75
27.19
26.10
:
36.03
35.46
33.57
27.35
:
33.10
36.01
2007
25.50
25.00
24.90
25.00
25.00
25.00
25.38
25.60
25.38
25.00
24.50
24.50
:
25.13
25.00
25.45
24.67
:
25.06
25.73
2008
24.13
26.40
28.00
28.00
29.60
33.25
38.00
38.40
38.50
36.20
35.00
35.00
26.18
30.28
38.30
35.40
32.54
29.86
2009
35.00
35.00
35.00
34.25
34.40
35.50
35.40
38.00
42.00
35.00
34.72
38.47
Source: Milling & Baking News . Simple average of the lower end of the range of quotations for days in that m onth. Quotations are weekly.
41
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
35.90
Table 13--U.S. ret ail refined sugar price, monthly, quarterly, and by calendar and fiscal year
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1st Q.
2nd Q.
3rd Q.
4th Q.
Calendar
F iscal
Cents per pound
1991
43.40
43.00
43.40
43.30
43.10
43.20
43.50
42.80
42.20
42.00
41.90
41.80
:
43.27
43.20
42.83
41.90
:
42.80
43.08
1992
42.50
42.40
41.90
41.70
41.70
41.50
41.50
41.10
41.00
41.20
41.20
40.60
:
42.27
41.63
41.20
41.00
:
41.53
41.75
1993
41.20
41.00
40.60
40.80
40.80
40.30
40.20
40.60
40.40
40.50
40.30
39.80
:
40.93
40.63
40.40
40.20
:
40.54
40.74
1994
40.70
40.50
40.10
39.90
40.10
39.70
40.00
39.70
40.30
40.20
39.50
39.20
:
40.43
39.90
40.00
39.63
:
39.99
40.13
1995
39.70
39.90
39.80
39.40
39.70
39.50
39.70
39.60
39.80
40.40
40.70
39.80
:
39.80
39.53
39.70
40.30
:
39.83
39.67
1996
40.50
40.30
40.60
40.40
41.50
41.80
42.40
42.80
42.60
43.20
42.60
42.80
:
40.47
41.23
42.60
42.87
:
41.79
41.15
1997
43.40
42.90
43.10
43.50
43.40
43.60
43.30
43.60
43.60
43.00
42.90
42.80
:
43.13
43.50
43.50
42.90
:
43.26
43.25
1998
43.00
42.90
43.30
43.10
42.80
43.10
43.20
43.60
43.20
42.30
42.50
42.70
:
43.07
43.00
43.33
42.50
:
42.98
43.08
1999
43.60
43.00
43.70
43.20
43.60
43.10
43.20
43.10
43.70
43.80
42.60
42.60
:
43.43
43.30
43.33
43.00
:
43.27
43.14
2000
43.70
43.20
42.90
41.40
42.40
42.80
42.50
42.40
42.40
42.50
41.30
41.40
:
43.27
42.20
42.43
41.73
:
42.41
42.73
2001
42.80
43.50
43.70
42.90
43.80
43.50
44.30
43.30
44.20
44.00
42.50
42.50
:
43.33
43.40
43.93
43.00
:
43.42
43.10
2002
44.10
43.70
42.60
44.40
42.70
43.00
43.30
43.30
43.70
42.40
41.90
42.10
:
43.47
43.37
43.43
42.13
:
43.10
43.32
2003
43.00
42.70
42.70
42.70
43.10
42.90
43.10
43.50
42.60
42.50
41.10
42.20
:
42.80
42.90
43.07
41.93
:
42.68
42.73
2004
42.90
42.60
42.60
42.70
42.50
42.50
42.90
42.60
42.60
42.60
42.20
43.00
:
42.70
42.57
42.70
42.60
:
42.64
42.48
2005
43.70
43.50
43.30
43.60
42.70
42.80
42.40
43.20
43.70
44.20
44.50
44.90
:
43.50
43.03
43.10
44.53
:
43.54
43.06
2006
46.10
46.80
47.10
48.00
49.90
50.40
50.50
51.60
51.50
51.20
51.30
50.60
:
46.67
49.43
51.20
51.03
:
49.58
47.96
2007
51.90
51.40
51.80
50.80
51.30
52.10
52.20
51.80
51.80
51.30
51.00
50.30
:
51.70
51.40
51.93
50.87
:
51.48
51.52
2008
51.90
51.30
50.40
51.70
52.10
52.50
52.50
53.50
56.30
56.50
52.80
53.40
51.20
52.10
54.10
54.23
52.91
52.07
2009
56.90
56.90
57.10
56.80
56.10
56.20
55.60
55.60
56.97
56.37
Sou rce : Bure au of Lab or Sta ti stics.
42
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 14--U.S. prod ucer price index for corn sweeteners and sugar, m onthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Annual
Corn sw eeteners (liquids and solids), incl. glucose, dextrose, and HFCS, June 1985=100 1/
2000
98.9
98.0
97.8
98.0
97. 9
97.9
97.8
98.0
98.0
97.6
99.2
100.3
98. 3
2001
111.3
111.6
111.6
111.5
111. 9
111.3
111.3
111.3
112.2
112.3
113.9
114.0
112. 0
2002
116.5
120.1
119.7
119.8
117. 4
119.6
121.2
121.0
127.4
127.9
125.9
126.5
121. 9
2003
130.0
131.4
131.3
131.3
131. 5
131.9
--
132.2
131.9
130.6
130.9
130.7
131. 3
2004
131.9
132.0
131.9
131.7
131. 6
131.7
131.8
131.5
131.6
131.5
131.6
131.6
131. 7
2005
133.1
133.3
133.5
133.1
133. 1
133.1
133.2
132.9
133.2
137.2
133.1
133.2
133. 5
2006
144.5
144.8
145.1
153.4
151. 1
151.2
151.2
150.9
150.9
150.9
151.1
151.0
149. 7
2007
175.5
176.8
176.8
176.8
176. 9
177.1
176.8
176.8
176.5
176.9
177.0
176.6
176. 7
2008
207.1
207.8
207.9
207.9
207. 9
209.2
209.2
209.4
209.2
209.3
210.6
210.1
208. 8
2009 2/
221.1
220.5
220.6
218.8
218. 8
218.7
216.8
216.7
2000
92.7
89.4
95.1
97.4
97. 0
99.5
92.7
90.7
95.9
106.1
106.9
103.4
97. 2
2001
106.3
107.6
107.6
108.6
107. 8
106.1
107.7
107.4
107.1
107.4
108.2
109.8
107. 6
2002
109.2
107.0
103.8
103.4
101. 4
102.7
106.7
106.9
111.2
111.6
113.9
112.7
107. 5
2003
108.8
111.3
113.5
111.6
112. 1
111.1
109.8
109.8
108.0
106.8
107.4
105.2
109. 6
2004
104.7
104.5
106.4
105.6
105. 8
102.7
104.6
103.3
107.1
104.2
104.2
106.5
105. 0
2005
106.5
105.6
120.0
121.4
122. 9
124.5
125.0
127.2
123.3
125.0
126.4
126.3
121. 2
2006
129.5
133.2
129.9
132.9
134. 6
135.4
134.2
132.0
132.1
127.5
124.4
123.0
130. 7
2007
123.9
125.4
125.9
125.9
127. 0
127.2
129.0
127.4
127.6
126.2
124.7
123.0
126. 1
2008
124.0
122.3
124.2
124.0
124. 5
125.0
129.1
131.0
130.8
128.4
126.8
127.8
126. 5
2009 2/
130.3
126.8
125.1
128.5
127. 4
130.0
130.3
137.7
2000
105.4
101.5
100.3
99.1
98. 3
98.3
97.7
96.2
95.5
94.7
95.0
94.0
98. 0
2001
97.5
97.6
97.8
98.0
99. 4
99.5
99.5
100.9
102.0
103.3
105.0
106.8
100. 6
2002
108.5
109.8
110.5
111.2
111. 1
110.9
111.3
111.3
114.2
114.3
116.1
117.9
112. 3
2003
118.7
118.8
119.1
119.5
119. 2
119.4
119.3
119.4
113.7
116.6
116.4
116.2
118. 0
2004
116.1
116.3
116.4
116.8
116. 3
116.6
116.6
116.7
116.9
115.5
115.8
116.1
116. 4
2005
116.3
117.8
115.9
116.5
117. 3
118.6
118.5
118.4
118.2
122.6
136.0
141.5
121. 5
2006
141.9
147.4
148.8
149.0
148. 6
149.2
152.0
151.2
146.2
145.0
143.5
138.1
146. 7
2007
136.2
136.5
133.8
132.9
129. 4
126.6
126.2
126.1
125.9
126.3
124.3
123.9
129. 0
2008
121.3
121.5
123.0
124.2
127. 6
130.1
131.2
142.4
141.8
140.8
139.2
139.3
131. 9
2009 2/
139.8
140.6
145.2
146.6
144. 9
145.3
147.5
148.0
2000
124.7
121.8
121.7
119.8
120. 4
119.8
120.5
119.2
117.5
113.9
113.2
114.4
118. 9
2001
112.8
117.5
116.2
114.6
115. 1
115.3
115.6
116.6
115.5
115.2
115.2
116.3
115. 5
2002
117.4
117.9
121.0
122.3
119. 7
121.2
121.3
120.8
120.8
121.0
119.5
120.1
120. 2
2003
119.1
122.3
122.8
122.9
122. 9
123.5
123.8
124.5
125.5
124.3
122.3
123.4
123. 1
2004
120.5
120.4
121.6
121.6
123. 0
124.3
123.3
123.5
123.1
123.6
122.5
121.6
122. 4
2005
122.8
121.9
121.5
121.4
122. 6
123.7
122.4
124.4
125.3
130.4
133.6
140.8
125. 9
2006
142.8
146.2
155.5
156.9
155. 5
150.7
156.4
153.1
152.3
148.2
143.9
142.3
150. 3
2007
144.9
140.4
137.9
136.1
134. 9
132.0
132.4
128.5
130.0
124.7
130.1
129.9
133. 5
2008
127.4
129.0
127.5
128.0
128. 1
132.1
134.7
139.4
144.2
160.4
161.0
162.0
139. 5
2009 2/
163.4
163.4
163.2
161.3
161. 1
161.5
161.4
162.0
Raw cane sugar and other can mill products and byprod ucts, June 1982=100 1/
Refined beet sugar and byproducts, June 1982=100 1/
Refined cane sugar and byproducts, June 1982= 100 1/
1/ Base d o n a sa mpl e of do me sti c pro du cers. 2 / P reli mi na ry, al l in de xes a re sub je ct to re vis ion fo ur mo nth s a fte r ori gin al p ub li shi ng .
Sou rce : Bure au of Lab or Sta ti stics.
43
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 15--U.S. Consumer Price Index for sugar and selected s weetener-containing products 1/
Flour
Year
Sugar
Sugar
and
Cereals and
and
and
and
prepared
bakery
Breakfast
White
month
sweets
artificial
flour
products
cereal
bread
sweeteners
mixes
2/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
1982-84=100
2000
154.0
137.1
160.2
188.3
198. 0
199.1
2001
155.7
140.3
164.3
193.8
199. 7
208.3
2002
159.0
143.2
171.0
198.0
203. 0
213.4
2003
162.0
145.7
178.4
202.8
204. 3
218.6
2004
163.2
146.9
177.8
206.0
203. 5
223.8
2005
165.2
149.1
179.6
209.0
203. 6
232.1
2006
171.5
163.9
182.2
212.8
199. 9
238.0
2007
176.8
167.1
191.6
222.1
205. 0
258.0
2008
186.6
170.5
225.8
244.9
212. 1
294.2
Cakes,
cupcak es,
and cookies
Ot her
bakery
produc ts
8/
9/
187.9
192.0
196.7
202.8
206.4
209.8
214.2
221.7
239.9
191.5
199.1
203.0
207.3
211.8
211.4
215.5
220.5
236.5
2008
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
180.2
180.6
182.2
184.9
185.1
185.6
187.1
187.8
189.9
190.5
191.8
193.3
167.0
167.7
165.4
168.5
169.1
170.0
170.4
172.7
175.7
174.6
171.8
173.0
202.3
208.8
215.5
224.3
231.1
233.4
236.9
236.1
232.2
231.0
228.4
229.9
228.7
233.4
236.3
240.0
244.2
245.8
250.3
250.1
250.9
252.8
252.7
253.1
203. 1
205. 9
211. 4
208. 6
211. 4
210. 6
214. 4
213. 4
214. 9
216. 1
218. 1
217. 9
273.1
278.9
287.9
291.4
294.6
296.7
302.4
299.5
298.3
301.2
302.1
304.7
227.9
229.2
232.7
234.5
237.9
240.4
243.4
243.1
244.4
246.9
249.7
248.7
221.7
227.2
225.0
233.8
237.7
239.1
241.9
243.6
243.8
245.2
238.5
240.9
2009
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
197.4
196.7
197.1
197.3
196.4
197.0
195.1
195.4
178.2
178.5
178.9
175.3
177.4
177.3
176.8
176.7
237.4
237.9
233.9
231.2
234.8
235.1
238.1
234.0
254.4
254.2
253.7
252.7
252.7
253.0
253.4
252.4
217. 0
214. 8
215. 0
217. 6
217. 3
216. 8
221. 9
219. 6
301.1
302.4
304.4
301.8
299.4
299.6
301.3
295.7
249.8
249.3
249.6
250.5
248.6
251.6
249.2
249.8
247.2
248.6
245.9
244.4
247.8
247.8
245.5
249.3
Cont inued--
44
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 15--U.S. Consumer Price Index for sugar and selected s weetener-containing products 1/
Year
Non-alcoholic Carbonated Non-carbonated
Canned
Candy and Ice cream
and
beverages
drinks
juic es and
fruits
chewing gum and related
month
drinks
produc ts
10/
11/
12/
13/
14/
15/
1982-84=100
Food
16/
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
137.8
139.2
139.2
139.8
140.4
144.4
147.4
153.4
123.4
125.4
125.6
125.6
127.9
131.9
134.2
140.1
104.2
106.0
106.4
106.5
105.7
106.5
109.5
112.9
106.9
109.0
111.6
113.7
114.0
118.4
121.5
125.2
103. 8
104. 3
106. 2
107. 8
108. 4
109. 5
112. 2
116. 1
164.4
173.4
179.1
175.5
178.3
177.6
179.3
183.4
167.8
173.1
176.2
180.0
186.2
190.7
195.2
202.9
2008
160.0
147.0
117.5
135.6
123. 2
192.8
214.1
2008
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
157.9
157.8
158.1
159.7
158.3
143.7
146.5
144.5
147.0
143.2
116.8
116.1
116.1
117.2
117.1
128.3
132.3
130.2
130.7
135.2
118. 8
119. 1
120. 6
122. 5
122. 2
189.5
190.2
188.8
190.7
190.2
208.6
209.2
209.4
211.1
212.1
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
158.3
159.3
160.1
161.5
163.7
163.0
162.8
144.5
145.1
144.5
149.6
152.3
151.8
151.1
115.7
117.2
117.7
118.0
119.0
119.2
120.2
136.2
136.3
137.3
140.6
141.0
139.8
139.1
122. 6
123. 8
123. 6
124. 6
124. 6
126. 9
128. 7
190.1
187.8
192.3
194.3
199.7
200.6
199.1
213.2
215.3
216.4
217.7
218.7
218.7
218.8
2009
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
164.9
164.2
165.7
162.9
162.8
162.6
162.1
154.9
155.5
157.9
153.8
154.3
155.3
153.9
119.9
118.5
119.4
118.7
118.4
117.2
117.5
141.5
142.2
144.2
140.5
146.7
146.4
145.1
130. 3
130. 2
129. 8
130. 7
129. 5
130. 3
128. 3
201.7
201.0
198.2
197.4
198.5
192.6
191.2
219.7
219.2
218.6
218.2
217.8
217.7
217.3
Aug.
163.0
153.6
117.3
144.7
128. 7
192.0
217.4
1/ All-urban, unadjusted, U.S. city average. 2/ Series:SEFR, Base: 1982-84=100. 3/ Series: SEFR01, Base: 1982-84=100.
4/ Series: SEFA01, Base: 1982-84=100; 5/ Series: SAF111, Base: 1982-84=100. 6/ Series: SEFA02, Bas e: 1982-84=100.
7/ Series: SS02011, Base: 1982-84=100. 8/ Series: SEFB03, Base: 1982-84=100. 9/ Series: SEFB04, Base: 1982-84=100.
10/ Series: SAF114, Base: 1982-84=100. 11/ Series: SEFN01, Base: 1982-84=100. 12/ Series: SEFN03, Base: Dec. 1997=100.
13/ Series: SS13031, Bas e: Dec. 1997=100. 14/ Series: SEFR02, Base: Dec. 1997=100. 15/ Series: SEFJ03, Base: 1982-84=100.
16/ Series: SAF1, Base: 1982-84=100.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
45
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Tab le 1 6--U.S . ca ne and bee t sugar del iverie s, mon thly, qua rterl y, and b y fis cal and cale nda r ye ar
Year
Jan.
Feb.
M ar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
S ep.
Oct.
Nov.
1,000 sho rt ton s, raw val ue
U.S. beet sugar for dom est ic consu mption :
Dec .
: 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3 rd Q.
4t h Q. :
F iscal
Cale nda r
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
30 3
31 2
30 1
31 6
28 0
32 4
31 9
32 0
2 87
3 13
3 11
3 42
2 72
3 16
3 25
3 40
397
370
378
361
315
362
374
385
299
303
311
343
312
344
346
341
328
338
356
338
326
342
361
393
367
406
399
325
332
401
417
384
358
360
384
350
351
393
400
348
372
406
450
335
373
388
427
411
367
437
465
300
428
409
416
392
346
338
404
333
375
392
438
412
325
304
395
315
316
334
392
378
338
282
331
267
317
308
321
329
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
9 88
9 95
9 89
1,0 18
8 67
1,0 02
1,0 18
1,0 45
99 4
1,04 7
1,06 6
1,00 6
97 0
1,08 7
1,12 4
1,11 8
1,097
1,204
1,300
984
1,152
1,190
1,244
1,152
1,00 8
92 4
1,13 1
91 5
1,00 9
1,03 4
1,15 1
1,11 9
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
4,134
4,254
4,279
4,139
3,903
4,288
4,419
4,465
4,087
4,170
4,486
3,923
3,997
4,313
4,536
4,433
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
36 6
34 9
31 5
35 9
35 8
34 2
33 9
36 5
3 46
3 15
3 07
3 67
3 68
3 06
3 30
4 01
401
347
341
407
395
357
378
402
375
340
338
387
387
323
396
405
405
375
338
333
370
362
414
422
403
332
365
438
416
381
404
453
414
369
380
408
384
348
422
438
450
365
366
433
415
406
456
424
408
380
388
392
449
366
420
436
429
423
395
423
457
369
436
437
373
396
335
378
375
329
402
352
311
300
353
342
337
306
311
333
:
:
:
:
:
:
1,1 13
1,0 12
9 62
1,1 33
1,1 20
1,0 05
1,0 47
1,1 67
1,18 3
1,04 7
1,04 1
1,15 9
1,17 3
1,06 7
1,21 4
1,28 0
1,272
1,114
1,134
1,233
1,248
1,120
1,297
1,298
1,11 2
1,11 9
1,08 2
1,14 3
1,16 9
1,00 4
1,14 9
1,12 2
:
:
:
:
:
:
4,686
4,285
4,255
4,607
4,684
4,360
4,562
4,894
4,680
4,291
4,219
4,668
4,710
4,195
4,707
4,867
2009
31 6
2 82
344
322
Cane sugar for dome stic consumpt ion:
1993
31 1
3 39
391
387
1994
33 2
3 58
422
361
1995
34 0
3 32
432
380
1996
35 3
3 76
443
425
1997
39 7
3 96
481
444
1998
36 9
3 91
470
430
1999
35 5
3 79
453
452
2000
38 3
4 04
484
425
2001
41 0
3 71
470
413
2002
39 2
3 78
437
424
2003
37 2
3 77
467
434
2004
34 6
3 93
406
377
2005
37 7
3 63
459
400
2006
40 5
3 83
440
405
2007
39 9
3 63
455
426
2008
40 8
4 11
443
393
2009
39 5
3 92
468
447
Imports t o nonrepo rt ers
1993
4
2
3
2
1994
5
3
6
1
1995
9
1
1
2
1996
0
0
0
0
1997
1
0
1
2
332
379
364
404
351
400
424
452
474
429
500
452
431
458
408
415
437
434
426
443
459
423
448
438
471
509
481
476
488
458
490
475
408
441
466
429
408
467
422
411
369
463
462
432
433
455
419
472
421
404
418
435
400
435
499
441
427
444
488
476
438
490
530
446
486
488
448
477
494
497
432
492
469
473
423
565
500
506
485
471
417
549
415
415
458
441
435
426
427
443
431
547
525
486
483
534
487
468
476
528
476
487
448
450
424
434
413
500
459
467
481
481
467
444
486
466
429
456
470
434
395
420
381
456
431
451
433
398
384
407
413
383
401
384
376
401
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
1,0 42
1,1 12
1,1 04
1,1 72
1,2 74
1,2 30
1,1 86
1,2 72
1,2 51
1,2 08
1,2 16
1,1 44
1,1 99
1,2 28
1,2 17
1,2 62
1,2 55
1,16 1
1,20 9
1,24 3
1,34 9
1,42 7
1,33 9
1,42 9
1,36 5
1,30 2
1,37 3
1,31 7
1,20 0
1,27 7
1,30 5
1,28 1
1,24 3
1,37 3
1,332
1,310
1,236
1,515
1,437
1,377
1,407
1,456
1,282
1,507
1,324
1,268
1,353
1,369
1,332
1,293
1,24 6
1,29 8
1,22 6
1,50 4
1,41 6
1,40 4
1,39 6
1,41 4
1,33 8
1,32 0
1,37 5
1,37 7
1,30 6
1,32 7
1,29 5
1,28 5
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
4,734
4,877
4,880
5,262
5,641
5,361
5,427
5,490
5,248
5,424
5,177
4,987
5,207
5,209
5,157
5,093
4,781
4,929
4,808
5,539
5,553
5,349
5,419
5,508
5,172
5,407
5,232
4,989
5,136
5,230
5,124
5,083
5
4
0
0
1
9
4
0
0
1
1
5
1
0
1
2
5
1
1
0
1
7
4
19
1
9
10
17
10
15
6
15
5
1
2
8
12
0
1
2
:
:
:
:
:
10
14
12
1
2
17
9
3
1
4
3
18
6
20
2
23
38
22
12
19
:
:
:
:
:
48
63
59
44
20
52
78
44
33
27
0
0
0
0
7
1
4
6
1
0
0
0
1
0
3
4
1
0
0
0
12
1
3
11
1
0
0
3
3
1
4
2
0
0
0
21
6
1
11
6
0
4
3
3
14
4
4
57
13
27
26
6
36
25
16
17
5
3
4
10
19
16
11
24
1
4
1
8
2
5
1
55
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
1
4
1
6
8
5
9
16
2
0
0
1
20
2
9
21
1
4
3
27
24
6
19
65
19
33
31
24
58
47
27
96
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
23
28
38
65
76
71
84
128
24
41
36
58
109
60
64
197
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total sugar
1993
1994
1995
92
6
104
26
16
22
4
15
13
34
37
38
82
90
96
103
for dom est ic consu mption :
61 9
6 29
791
688
64 9
6 74
798
665
65 1
6 44
811
694
29
22
58
111
60
4
46
90
71
21
50
66
70
13
98
70
61
19
140
32
18
134
22
40
120
5
11
105
:
2 02
43
83
2 68
11 5
40
14 3
30 5
202
53
288
58 :
69
35 9
615
194
584
577
206
873
685
742
780
799
857
837
782
776
755
815
838
894
836
918
892
783
792
853
755
754
813
740
714
713
: 2,0 39 2,17 2
: 2,1 21 2,26 5
: 2,1 05 2,31 1
2,432
2,532
2,542
2,27 7 :
2,26 0 :
2,37 9 :
8,916
9,195
9,218
8,920
9,177
9,337
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
67 0
67 8
69 4
67 6
70 3
7 18
6 68
7 07
7 04
7 45
804
797
832
827
870
769
758
774
798
766
790
801
772
861
845
796
841
883
894
872
813
813
826
833
804
823
849
826
916
941
883
928
915
905
867
891
915
892
947
973
816
778
806
876
863
724
750
760
757
728
:
:
:
:
:
2,1 91
2,1 43
2,2 33
2,2 08
2,3 18
2,35 5
2,40 1
2,42 8
2,55 3
2,48 4
2,519
2,591
2,568
2,655
2,611
2,43 0
2,44 3
2,45 8
2,58 0
2,56 4
:
:
:
:
:
9,445
9,565
9,672
9,873
9,993
9,496
9,578
9,686
9,996
9,977
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
78 1
74 4
68 9
70 6
73 7
83 9
75 4
78 6
7 18
6 95
6 85
7 62
7 32
6 95
7 15
8 46
871
788
809
819
866
901
838
881
788
771
772
767
793
755
837
836
837
834
746
751
811
825
862
923
861
834
841
850
867
907
837
907
835
844
802
817
804
853
843
923
917
858
856
893
897
969
966
953
828
943
807
810
964
868
873
1,002
922
927
896
967
951
888
903
1 ,021
849
860
837
855
828
806
912
906
703
709
771
726
793
694
698
839
:
:
:
:
:
:
2,3 70
2,2 27
2,1 83
2,2 86
2,3 35
2,4 36
2,3 07
2,5 13
2,48 6
2,43 9
2,36 0
2,36 8
2,47 1
2,48 7
2,53 5
2,66 5
2,580
2,645
2,464
2,520
2,666
2,690
2,682
2,879
2,47 4
2,49 7
2,50 4
2,54 7
2,57 1
2,38 9
2,51 3
2,76 6
:
:
:
:
:
:
10,000
9,785
9,504
9,678
10,019
10,184
9,913
10,571
9,911
9,808
9,511
9,722
10,043
10,002
10,037
10,823
2009
79 2
7 65
909
873
901
937
929
966
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0
3
0
5
3
3
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
0
4
1
6
13
9 42 1,03 3
2,4 66 2,71 1
46
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
C onti nued --
Tab le 1 6--U.S. cane and beet sugar del iveries, mon thly, quarterly, and b y fis cal and calendar year
Year
Jan.
Feb.
M ar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
1,000 sho rt ton s, raw value
Reexport ed i n products:
1993
10
4
9
7
7
12
14
22
20
8
8
1994
7
7
7
9
15
15
10
17
17
12
11
1995
3
7
7
8
4
7
15
18
5
6
8
1996
5
5
10
14
8
8
8
13
11
9
7
1997
32
30
6
6
7
10
12
16
17
7
6
1998
6
9
9
12
10
10
14
15
16
18
15
1999
26
19
12
14
11
10
15
10
7
9
5
2000
7
7
7
7
8
7
6
11
5
6
6
2001
8
5
8
9
10
10
11
11
8
10
16
2002
15
13
11
12
12
11
12
14
15
17
12
2003
16
13
14
14
15
20
19
15
13
16
10
2004
9
10
9
10
18
11
12
15
13
10
9
2005
7
8
9
11
9
17
11
11
11
6
14
2006
6
10
9
10
6
7
7
10
15
11
8
2007
18
11
14
17
22
16
16
13
11
8
12
2008
11
7
9
14
12
11
17
9
15
8
4
2009
9
9
12
12
11
9
10
13
Polyhydric alcohol and livestock feed use:
1993
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Dec.
: 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3 rd Q. 4th Q. :
7
5
7
6
8
11
7
7
13
14
9
9
6
12
16
5
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
23
20
18
20
68
24
58
21
21
39
44
28
24
25
43
27
30
26
39
18
30
22
32
35
22
29
35
49
40
37
23
55
37
33
57
44
39
32
45
46
32
22
30
42
47
39
33
32
40
41
24
28
21
22
21
44
21
18
40
43
35
28
25
31
35
17
Fiscal
Calendar
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
132
127
103
104
157
123
169
86
98
156
183
142
121
106
169
141
129
131
96
104
156
146
145
84
120
158
175
135
118
111
173
123
1
:
5
4
3
2:
15
14
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
1
2
2
1
2
2
3
3
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
1
2
2
3
2
2
3
10
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
3
1
1
1
2
2
3
2
2
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
4
4
4
4
4
5
9
8
3
5
5
6
5
6
8
10
4
4
5
6
5
6
7
17
4
4
5
5
6
8
7
9
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
13
17
18
21
20
24
32
42
14
17
18
21
21
26
30
44
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
3
2
3
4
5
4
6
4
2
2
3
4
4
5
4
3
2
2
4
4
5
5
6
3
2
2
4
4
4
4
5
4
3
2
4
4
4
5
5
4
4
2
3
5
4
4
5
3
4
2
4
4
4
4
5
3
2
2
4
4
4
5
5
3
2
3
4
5
4
5
5
2
2
4
4
5
5
6
2
3
3
4
4
5
4
1
3
4
5
4
4
4
:
:
:
:
:
7
6
9
12
13
14
16
11
8
7
11
13
12
14
15
11
8
7
13
13
12
13
16
5
7
10
13
12
14
14
:
:
:
:
:
33
24
41
48
50
53
61
28
27
44
51
49
54
61
Total U.S. sugar deli veries 1/:
1993
63 0
6 35
801
697
693
812
797
838
857
792 763
748 : 2,0 67 2,20 1 2,492 2,30 3 :
9,063
1994
65 7
6 82
806
675
758
873
787
856
936
804 767
720 : 2,1 45 2,30 7 2,579 2,29 1 :
9,334
1995
65 5
6 53
820
703
786
846
772
914
899
861 823
721 : 2,1 27 2,33 4 2,585 2,40 5 :
9,337
1996
67 6
7 24
815
785
800
806
822
838
896
901 824
731 : 2,2 15 2,39 0 2,557 2,45 7 :
9,567
1997
71 2
6 99
804
766
810
854
827
867
948
924 785
760 : 2,2 15 2,42 9 2,641 2,46 9 :
9,742
1998
70 1
7 18
843
787
784
894
843
843
933
912 823
773 : 2,2 61 2,46 5 2,619 2,50 8 :
9,815
1999
70 4
7 25
842
814
875
906
850
928
915
958 883
767 : 2,2 71 2,59 4 2,693 2,60 9 :
10,066
2000
71 3
7 55
880
776
855
881
813
954
875
981 871
737 : 2,3 48 2,51 3 2,641 2,58 9 :
10,111
2001
79 2
7 26
882
800
851
874
849
932
847
936 869
718 : 2,3 99 2,52 4 2,628 2,52 4 :
10,140
2002
76 1
7 10
801
786
848
849
860
874
960
946 874
724 : 2,2 72 2,48 3 2,694 2,54 4 :
9,973
2003
70 7
7 01
825
788
764
863
823
873
823
914 849
783 : 2,2 33 2,41 5 2,519 2,54 6 :
9,711
2004
71 8
7 75
832
782
773
864
833
912
827
980 866
739 : 2,3 24 2,41 9 2,572 2,58 6 :
9,861
2005
74 8
7 44
879
808
824
889
820
912
979
960 846
803 : 2,3 70 2,52 1 2,711 2,60 9 :
10,188
2006
85 0
7 09
914
768
835
919
865
984
886
903 818
710 : 2,4 74 2,52 2 2,734 2,43 2 :
10,339
2007
77 6
7 31
857
858
889
857
862
984
888
916 928
718
2,3 64 2,60 4 2,735 2,56 3
10,134
2008
80 3
8 58
895
855
940
923
945
968
1,023
1 ,035 915
847
2,5 56 2,71 8 2,937 2,79 7
10,773
2009
80 6
7 77
924
888
917
949
942
983
2,5 07 2,75 5
Totals may not add du e to rou nding.
Note: This tab le commenced i n Oct ober 1991 wh en USDA began reportin g monthly pro duction data. Puerto Rico data were added beginning October 1993.
1/ Fiscal year totals prio r t o 1994 differ fro m supply and u se (table ) since WASDE incl udes Pu erto Rico .
Source: USDA, FSA, Sweetener Market Data.
47
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
9,063
9,322
9,451
9,619
9,755
9,854
10,167
10,091
10,075
9,994
9,713
9,901
10,212
10,162
10,265
11,007
Table 17--U.S. sugar: supply and use, by fiscal year 1/
Items
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Projection
Sep-09
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 2/
1,639
2,216
2,180
1,528
1,670
1,897
1,332
1,698
1,799
1,660
1,307
Total production 3/, 4/
9,050
8,769
7,900
8,426
8,649
7,876
7,399
8,445
8,152
7,571
8,025
Beet sugar
4,974
4,680
3,915
4,462
4,692
4,611
4,444
5,008
4,721
4,250
4,700
Cane sugar
3,325
4,076
4,089
3,985
3,964
3,957
3,265
2,955
3,438
3,431
3,321
F lorida
1,966
2,057
1,980
2,129
2,154
1,693
1,367
1,719
1,645
1,569
1,700
Louisiana
1,683
1,585
1,580
1,367
1,377
1,157
1,190
1,320
1,446
1,400
1,300
T exas
105
206
174
191
175
158
175
177
158
152
165
Hawaii
318
241
251
276
251
258
223
222
182
200
160
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,636
1,590
1,535
1,730
1,750
2,100
3,443
2,080
2,620
3,116
2,087
1,124
1,277
1,158
1,210
1,226
1,408
2,588
1,624
1,354
1,431
1,182
Other Program Imports
388
238
296
488
464
500
349
390
565
300
400
Non-program imports
124
76
81
32
60
192
506
66
701
1,385
505
60
694
1,375
495
12,325
12,575
11,615
11,684
12,070
11,873
12,174
12,223
12,571
12,347
11,419
124
141
137
142
288
259
203
422
203
130
200
124
141
137
142
288
259
203
422
203
130
200
Other exports
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CCC disposal, f or export
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Statistical difference 7/
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Puerto Rico
Total imports
T ariff-rate quota imports 5/
Mexico 6/
Total Supply
Total exports 3/
Quota-exempt for reexport
Miscellaneous
-126
123
-24
161
23
94
-67
-132
-66
0
CCC disposal, f or domestic non-food use
0
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Refining loss adjustment
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Statistical adjustment 8/
-126
113
-24
161
23
94
-67
-132
-66
0
0
Deliveries for domestic use
10,111
10,132
9,974
9,711
9,862
10,188
10,340
10,135
10,773
10,910
10,375
for export s under reexport pro gram
86
98
156
183
142
121
106
169
141
115
175
T ransfer to polyhydric alcohol, feed
32
33
33
24
41
48
51
53
61
60
60
9,993
10,000
9,785
9,504
9,678
10,019
10,184
9,913
10,571
10,735
10,140
10,090
10,396
10,087
10,014
10,172
10,542
10,476
10,424
10,911
11,040
10,575
1,670
1,897
1,332
1,698
1,799
1,660
1,307
844
16
17
15
12
8
T ransfer to sugar-cont. products
Deliveries for dom estic food and beverage use
Total Use
Ending stocks 3/
2,216
2,180
1,528
Privately owned
1,919
1,395
1,316
297
784
212
CCC
Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio
22
21
15
17
19
13
NOTE: Num bers may not add due to rounding.
1/ F iscal year beginning October 1. 2/ Stocks in hands of prim ary distributors and CC C. 3/ Historical data are from FSA (formerly ASCS), Sw eetener Market D ata , and NASS, Sugar Market Statistics
prior t o 1992. 4/ Production reflects processors' projections compiled by the F arm Service Agency. 5/ Aactual arrivals unde r the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early ent ries, and (TRQ) overfills
assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2009/10 available TRQ assumes shortfall of 150,000 tons. 6/ D oes not include Mexico T RQ imports. 7/ Receipts compiled by NASS and
FSA Customs data. 8/ C alculated as a residual. Largely consists of invisible stocks change.
48
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 18--Net cost of corn starch to U.S. wet-millers, Midw est m arkets
Corn byproducts
Period
Yellow
Byproduct credits
C orn
Corn
Corn
C orn
Net cost
dent
Corn
gluten
gluten
C orn
gluten
gluten
Total
corn 1/
oil
feed
meal
oil
feed
me al
byproduct
C orn
D ollars
Dollars
per bu
per bu
Dollars
Cents
per bu
per lb
Dollars per short ton
----Cent s per bushel----
Corn
C orn
starch
sweetener
--C ents per lb--
1991
2.40
28.36
101.57
256.07
43.96
68.56
33.93
1 .46
0.94
2. 97
2.81
1992
2.33
23.89
102.80
259.72
37.03
69.39
34.41
1 .41
0.92
2. 93
2.77
1993
2.27
21.52
87.99
296.53
33.35
59.39
39.29
1 .32
0.95
3. 02
2.85
1994
2.40
27.22
89.59
262.50
42.19
60.47
34.78
1 .37
1.03
3. 26
3.08
1995
2.70
26.67
88.34
244.02
41.33
59.63
32.33
1 .33
1.37
4. 34
4.10
1996
3.82
24.52
116.25
332.40
38.00
78.47
44.04
1 .61
2.22
7. 04
6.65
1997
2.67
24.87
83.99
345.22
38.55
56.69
45.74
1 .41
1.26
4. 00
3.78
1998
2.23
29.90
64.86
260.54
46.34
43.78
34.52
1 .25
0.98
3. 12
2.95
1999
1.92
23.59
58.77
231.88
36.56
39.67
30.72
1 .07
0.85
2. 68
2.54
2000
1.88
14.66
51.71
237.63
22.72
34.90
31.49
0 .89
0.98
3. 13
2.95
2001
1.90
15.75
62.46
253.98
24.41
42.16
33.65
1 .00
0.90
2. 86
2.70
2002
2.17
20.78
60.33
243.72
32.21
40.72
32.29
1 .05
1.12
3. 55
3.36
2003
2.29
28.65
72.15
251.36
44.40
48.70
33.31
1 .26
1.02
3. 25
3.07
2004
2.39
27.59
72.01
308.44
42.76
48.61
40.87
1 .32
1.07
3. 39
3.20
2005
1.90
28.42
51.33
288.09
44.04
34.65
38.17
1 .17
0.73
2. 33
2.20
2006
2.41
25.06
59.87
264.89
38.84
40.41
35.10
1 .14
1.27
4. 02
3.80
2007
3.51
39.23
87.70
402.30
60.81
59.19
53.31
1 .73
1.78
5. 64
5.33
2008
4.95
63.05
110.97
505.40
97.72
74.90
66.97
2 .40
2.55
8. 10
7.66
Jan.
4.55
63.35
135.60
545.00
98.19
91.53
72.21
2 .62
1.93
6. 13
5.79
Feb.
4.91
74.89
128.75
543.13
116.08
86.91
71.96
2 .75
2.16
6. 86
6.48
Mar.
5.16
83.55
117.19
561.88
129.50
79.10
74.45
2 .83
2.33
7. 40
6.99
I
4.87
73.93
127.18
550.00
114.59
85.85
72.88
2 .73
2.14
6. 79
6.42
Apr.
5.59
87.09
129.10
547.00
134.99
87.14
72.48
2 .95
2.64
8. 39
7.93
May
5.58
87.29
114.38
529.00
135.30
77.21
70.09
2 .83
2.75
8. 74
8.26
June
6.55
82.33
112.00
524.38
127.61
75.60
69.48
2 .73
3.82
12. 14
11.47
2008
II
5.91
85.57
118.49
533.46
132.63
79.98
70.68
2 .83
3.07
9. 76
9.22
July
5.97
76.64
125.70
554.50
118.79
84.85
73.47
2 .77
3.20
10. 16
9.60
Aug.
5.04
60.00
108.13
505.00
93.00
72.99
66.91
2 .33
2.71
8. 61
8.13
Sept.
5.00
48.71
99.30
495.50
75.50
67.03
65.65
2 .08
2.92
9. 26
8.75
III
5.34
61.78
111.04
518.33
95.76
74.95
68.68
2 .39
2.94
9. 34
8.83
Oct.
3.90
34.76
91.25
464.13
53.88
61.59
61.50
1 .77
2.13
6. 76
6.39
Nov.
3.61
31.06
90.63
406.25
48.14
61.18
53.83
1 .63
1.98
6. 28
5.94
Dec.
3.52
26.88
79.60
389.00
41.66
53.73
51.54
1 .47
2.05
6. 51
6.15
IV
3.68
30.90
87.16
419.79
47.90
58.83
55.62
1 .62
2.05
6. 52
6.16
Jan.
3.81
25.19
96.13
469.38
39.04
64.89
62.19
1 .66
2.15
6. 82
6.45
Feb.
3.46
29.05
98.88
539.38
45.03
66.74
71.47
1 .83
1.63
5. 17
4.88
Mar.
3.60
29.64
75.40
424.38
45.94
50.90
56.23
1 .53
2.07
6. 57
6.21
I
3.62
27.96
90.14
477.71
43.34
60.84
63.30
1 .67
1.95
6. 19
5.85
Apr.
3.69
31.31
66.63
443.13
48.53
44.98
58.71
1 .52
2.17
6. 88
6.50
May
3.98
37.23
68.25
564.38
57.71
46.07
74.78
1 .79
2.19
6. 97
6.58
June
3.97
39.57
78.70
630.00
61.33
53.12
83.48
1 .98
1.99
6. 32
5.97
II
3.88
36.04
71.19
545.84
55.86
48.06
72.32
1 .76
2.12
6. 72
6.35
July
3.22
36.30
62.63
532.50
56.27
42.28
70.56
1 .69
1.53
4. 85
4.59
Aug.
3.21
35.23
61.13
495.00
54.61
41.26
65.59
1 .61
1.60
5. 06
4.79
2009
NQ = no quote.
Sources: USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweeteners Team ;U SDA, byproduct credits and net cost calculations.
Note: T o calculat e the net cost of corn, it is assumed that the average bushel of corn wet-milled in the United States contains 31.5 pounds of recoverable
starch, dry weight, as well as 1.55 pounds of corn oil (crude weight), 13.5 pounds of corn gluten feed (commercial weight), and 2.65 pounds of corn
gluten meal, (commercial w eight). Also, 31.5 pounds of starch, dry weight, produces about 33.33 pounds of corn sweetener (dry weight) because of t he
chemical gain converting starch to sweetener.
49
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 19--U.S. high fructos e c orn syrup (HFCS) deliveries, quarterly, by fiscal and calendar year 1/
Quarter
and Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Quarter
I
II
III
IV
2,129
2,482
2,400
2,103
2,165
2,370
2,433
2,181
2, 114
2, 527
2, 491
2, 161
2,122
2,469
2,408
2,136
2,185
2,438
2,361
2,076
Year
Fiscal
9,200
9,072
9, 313
9,160
9,119
Calendar
9,114
9,149
9, 294
9,135
9,060
1/ Includes Puerto Rico. HFCS = High Fruct ose Corn Syrup.
Source: Estimates by USDA, ERS, Sugar and Sweetener Team.
2008
2009
2, 128
2, 408
2, 392
2, 130
2,195
2,087
2,003
1,946
2,431
2,363
2,277
2,183
2,345
2,266
2,175
2,073
2,049
1,907
9, 004
9, 058
9,102
9,045
8,789
8,504
8,765
8,361
50
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 20--U.S. raw sugar tar iff-tate quota (TRQ) World Trade Organizatrion ( WTO) allocations and entries by month, fiscal year 2009
---------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------- Entries by month ------------------------------ ---------------------------Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09
Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Entries to
date
Metric tons, raw value
Argentina
Australia
Barbados
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Colombia
Congo
Costa Rica
Cote d'Ivoire
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Fiji
Gabon
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
India
Jamaica
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Mexico 1/
Mozambique
Nicaragua
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
South Africa
St. Kitts and Nevis
Swaziland
Taiwan
Thailand
Trinidad-Tobago
Uruguay
Zimbabwe
63
31,350
0
0
0
0
2,316
0
0
0
6,535
0
0
0
0
20,824
0
0
10,529
0
0
0
1,940
0
0
0
0
7,629
0
0
21,945
28,372
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
448
31,350
0
0
0
12,540
563
0
0
0
166
0
0
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
0
0
1,402
0
0
0
0
14,474
0
0
0
25,735
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
161
0
0
8,424
22,258
540
0
0
0
356
0
27,098
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
0
0
1,358
10
0
63
0
0
0
0
0
-230
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-511
0
0
0
0
66,904
744
0
0
0
24,174
0
0
0
0
13,824
18
0
0
0
0
0
877
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27,634
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,462
110
0
0
0
0
694
0
0
0
553
0
-10,340
0
0
259
0
0
1
0
0
0
466
0
0
0
0
-23
0
0
0
28,735
0
0
16,849
0
0
0
0
0
Total
131,503 86,697 60,057 133,676 44,766
1/ This amount is also included in Table 60, U.S. Imports of Sugar from Mexico.
Source: United States Customs and Border Pr otection, Weekly Commodity Status Report .
http://www.fas.usda.gov/smi_arc.asp.
13,495
272
0
0
0
0
142
0
2
0
20,919
67
10,621
154
0
5,768
0
0
0
0
0
0
251
7
0
0
0
111
0
0
21,230
0
559
0
0
0
403
0
0
149
0
0
0
0
0
16,524
482
0
3,546
0
41,441
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,043
0
0
0
0
-128
0
0
0
31,242
23,661
0
0
0
14,340
0
0
0
-57
24,159
0
0
0
171
322
0
12,232
0
439
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
917
11
0
0
10,339
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22,570
15,773
0
0
0
26,957
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
0
0
0
0
8,473
0
0
0
-142
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
252
0
0
0
48,112
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
212
20
0
0
11,775
-12
0
167
0
-448
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24,295
0
0
0
0
146
343
0
0
0
6,512
7,629
0
0
0
9,872
0
0
0
0
0
0
449
8
0
0
0
-39
0
104
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
74,150 132,151
48,533
73,655
60,078
49,319
51
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
45,195
87,402
0
0
8,424
141,113
22,171
0
15,780
0
176,164
7,696
27,379
154
0
50,547
56
0
10,530
0
0
0
8,939
68
0
63
22,114
30,485
0
271
43,175
140,898
24,220
0
16,849
0
14,743
0
0
149
0
FY 2009 Entries as
TRQ
Share of
allocation allocation
percent
45,281
87,402
7,371
11,583
8,424
152,691
25,273
7,258
15,796
7,258
185,335
11,583
27,379
9,477
7,258
50,546
12,636
7,258
10,530
8,424
11,583
7,258
10,530
12,636
7,258
13,690
22,114
30,538
7,258
7,258
43,175
142,160
24,220
7,258
16,849
12,636
14,743
7,371
7,258
12,636
99.8
100.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
92.4
87.7
0.0
99.9
0.0
95.1
66.4
100.0
1.6
0.0
100.0
0.4
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
84.9
0.5
0.0
0.5
100.0
99.8
0.0
3.7
100.0
99.1
100.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
894,585 1,117,195
80.1
Table 21--U.S. imports of sugar and certain sugar-containing products from Mexico, fiscal years (FYs) 2008 and 2009 1/
------------------- -------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------- Entries by month ------------------ ------------------------------- ----------------Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June
July
13,250
47,507
60,757
0
50,142
50,142
Aug.
Sept.
Entries to
date
Metric tons, raw value
FY 2008
Sugar for further processing 2/
Sugar not for further processing 2/
Total sugar
9,234
8,328
17,562
0
16,180
16,180
23,638
10,788
34,426
16,960
9,301
26,261
39,220
12,677
51,897
16,960
30,059
47,019
40,174 30,210
33,758 40,227
73,932 70,437
41,764
61,965
103,729
8,056
69,128
77,184
239,466
390,060
629,526
FY 2009
Imported in bulk by ocean vessel 2/
16,816
46,158
53,256
0
5,902 71,227 63,898 106,630
8,971 46,526
0
419,384
Imported in containers, railcars, or trucks
73,145
68,207
63,554
55,935
74,109 85,967 91,379 96,123 82,855 61,786
58,065
811,125
89,961 114,365
116,810
55,935
80,011 157,194 155,277 202,753 91,826 108,312
58,065
1,230,509
Total sugar
1/ Beginning 1/1/08, no duty or quota applies to sugar from Mexico. From 10/1/07 - 12/31/07, Mexico had duty-fr ee access of 2,954 metric tons allocated under the
refined TRQ and 175,000 metric tons (which included WTO raw sugar allocation to Mexico) established by Presidential Proclamation 8180 issued on September 28, 2007.
2/ Includes imports under Mexico's WTO TRQ allocation for raw sugar. May include entries under U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) 1701.11.10.00,
1701.11.50.00, 1701.91.10.00, 1701.91.30.00, 1701.99.10.90, and 1701.99.50.90. Raw value is commercial weight multiplied by a factor of 1.06.
3/ Includes entries by ocean and over land.
Source: United States Customs and Border Pr otection.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/smi_arc.asp.
52
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 22--Bulk sugar prices in Mexico, estandar (standard) sugar
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Jan.
90.85
91.70
148.43
173.20
178.10
222.59
220.61
248.89
245.76
268.50
309.70
322.70
280.40
361.40
276.20
272.75
Feb.
90.85
99.33
152.71
196.96
176.01
214.45
207.89
234.25
244.46
266.46
296.25
312.00
275.60
344.95
260.16
272.88
Mar.
90.85
105.95
159.88
187.29
155.70
195.14
207.75
208.67
243.44
265.01
291.25
306.00
273.00
347.10
260.97
289.20
Apr.
90.85
106.34
160.92
179.11
163.12
184.23
201.33
189.46
242.14
270.04
298.25
306.00
292.50
341.00
273.50
329.63
May
90.85
110.92
162.21
172.99
180.02
184.54
219.23
185.45
240.83
273.14
297.25
305.25
334.40
332.30
255.12
337.17
Jun.
90.85
117.25
166.86
179.36
189.52
223.55
216.75
218.39
239.15
278.50
302.95
304.10
353.69
323.00
248.87
371.20
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Jan.
393.27
352.32
372.82
352.10
317.59
333.18
307.50
322.92
313.63
311.54
339.81
328.00
273.74
332.52
245.57
220.63
Feb.
392.18
365.45
374.76
394.57
308.24
318.68
287.68
303.91
311.77
304.78
320.08
314.89
268.32
315.25
228.78
218.67
Mar.
390.71
369.45
383.47
371.64
269.92
288.79
285.92
268.55
305.66
302.30
309.87
306.89
263.44
314.66
227.14
230.38
Apr.
388.64
340.41
375.22
352.97
281.00
272.26
274.83
243.62
301.16
311.62
312.67
305.39
277.63
308.14
236.31
265.27
May
386.59
340.94
372.80
338.57
308.71
271.91
298.09
239.01
296.75
316.53
309.65
306.31
313.41
302.11
219.48
272.68
Jun.
384.13
350.10
379.32
348.32
321.26
327.10
292.06
281.70
292.43
320.01
315.35
306.19
327.97
292.45
212.82
299.94
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
1994
26.52
26.40
24.96
24.61
24.85
24.48
1995
14.75
15.87
14.18
15.49
16.84
17.07
1996
18.00
18.43
19.16
19.54
19.79
20.01
1997
20.07
22.90
21.36
20.56
19.86
20.47
1998
19.64
18.78
16.49
17.41
19.02
19.27
1999
19.94
19.44
18.19
17.72
17.82
21.31
2000
21.08
20.01
20.29
19.44
20.92
20.00
2001
23.11
21.88
19.72
18.43
18.39
21.80
2002
24.33
24.36
24.37
23.97
22.97
22.21
2003
22.93
22.09
22.05
23.14
24.17
24.06
2004
25.73
24.36
23.98
24.01
23.41
24.12
2005
25.99
25.41
24.89
24.98
25.23
25.50
2006
24.13
23.85
23.04
24.02
27.35
28.16
2007
29.93
28.46
28.33
28.17
27.86
27.05
2008
22.98
21.92
22.06
23.60
22.17
21.86
2009
17.82
16.95
17.91
22.33
23.19
25.24
1/ D.F. - Central de Abasto de Iztapolapa, D.F.
Source: Servicio Nacional de Informacion de Mercados SNIIM-ECONOMICA
Nominal pesos per 50 kg 1/
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
90.85
90.85
90.85
117.25
119.80
133.76
168.24
171.81
176.29
175.96
173.60
176.78
186.70
210.43
214.81
220.27
207.16
211.56
232.14
232.22
230.60
222.00
219.07
249.51
244.95
248.15
253.40
285.05
287.64
294.90
317.85
326.20
331.00
297.25
300.00
289.00
333.00
401.40
440.75
321.00
306.50
288.12
267.20
261.67
262.60
424.17
465.25
658.50
Real 2005 pesos per 50 kg
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
381.76
379.50
377.09
343.64
345.42
378.46
377.81
381.06
386.93
339.19
331.98
334.91
313.50
348.96
345.92
320.90
300.58
305.02
312.68
311.68
308.76
286.98
282.09
319.18
297.86
299.95
303.74
326.65
328.12
334.84
329.52
335.55
338.59
297.55
299.73
287.26
308.09
369.14
405.49
288.60
278.26
259.55
226.44
221.60
221.20
U.S. cents per pound
Jul.
Aug.
24.22
24.37
17.37
17.44
20.04
20.74
20.29
20.24
19.03
20.37
21.33
20.00
22.36
22.72
21.97
21.76
22.72
22.88
24.73
24.20
25.14
25.97
25.27
25.47
27.51
33.49
26.93
25.18
23.73
23.47
28.80
32.45
Sep.
24.23
19.21
21.20
20.61
19.07
20.55
22.35
24.02
22.83
24.49
26.14
24.31
36.39
23.69
22.34
44.56
Oct.
90.85
140.30
172.51
169.63
215.07
224.71
224.57
249.34
262.31
302.40
329.60
284.10
395.85
280.40
264.50
Nov.
90.94
144.91
160.87
162.55
223.54
242.96
243.21
240.23
266.23
303.75
326.05
283.50
386.25
272.12
264.25
Dec.
91.70
149.57
155.08
162.99
227.44
228.98
263.77
233.55
268.39
319.10
329.85
282.50
374.35
292.00
280.60
Calendar
90.93
119.76
162.98
175.87
193.37
213.35
225.01
224.90
249.93
284.54
313.02
299.37
345.10
317.49
264.64
Fiscal
88.62
106.32
158.51
175.31
179.13
210.80
222.10
225.60
243.78
273.85
308.00
310.65
319.57
317.96
267.57
Oct.
375.46
388.73
374.02
318.87
339.44
321.41
298.35
318.07
314.63
339.68
334.95
281.78
364.98
252.30
217.22
Nov.
373.94
390.25
343.10
300.56
347.94
345.17
321.13
306.40
317.15
338.37
330.49
281.05
356.54
243.99
215.17
Dec.
373.17
387.95
322.42
298.15
348.41
322.81
346.30
298.83
315.62
351.56
336.39
278.71
344.18
261.82
227.73
Calendar
383.04
362.76
370.31
340.15
320.91
310.65
303.75
289.27
305.86
323.83
326.08
299.48
322.74
287.47
224.96
Fiscal
379.31
359.06
380.93
350.31
311.06
314.52
305.72
292.81
303.85
316.98
328.39
312.84
304.06
313.10
233.12
Oct.
24.09
18.87
20.23
19.55
19.20
21.29
21.36
24.22
23.58
24.54
26.22
23.79
32.99
23.51
18.95
Nov.
23.96
17.09
18.45
17.83
20.34
23.41
23.21
23.62
23.69
24.72
26.01
24.10
32.11
22.69
18.27
Dec.
20.93
17.65
17.86
18.19
20.83
22.04
25.28
23.14
23.81
25.73
26.72
24.12
31.29
24.42
18.97
Calendar
24.47
16.82
19.45
20.16
19.12
20.25
21.58
21.84
23.48
23.90
25.15
24.92
28.69
26.35
21.69
Fiscal
24.66
18.10
19.21
20.24
18.72
19.72
21.32
21.74
23.47
23.58
24.82
25.50
26.66
28.50
22.90
53
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 23--Bulk sugar prices in Mexico, refinado (refined) sugar
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Jan.
101.83
102.00
161.26
194.96
209.08
250.22
259.02
276.98
288.40
310.81
352.50
340.00
332.80
412.55
323.53
329.50
Feb.
101.83
110.46
167.01
216.67
207.25
251.28
252.50
274.56
283.56
310.73
340.00
339.50
332.75
403.50
313.24
329.33
Mar.
101.83
117.80
177.07
216.01
202.34
241.93
250.11
266.54
284.03
308.13
337.20
335.60
350.00
400.25
309.41
339.07
Apr.
101.83
118.19
179.04
215.62
198.37
239.00
248.45
256.03
280.56
313.20
340.00
339.00
355.00
398.80
324.99
357.34
May
101.83
122.85
178.82
211.40
205.43
233.35
245.58
250.26
278.54
315.26
337.50
338.80
375.60
389.94
316.33
395.00
Jun.
101.83
129.30
181.29
211.37
209.93
242.83
237.48
256.90
279.34
320.36
340.60
335.75
412.00
384.16
307.83
429.23
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Jan.
440.81
391.89
405.04
396.34
372.83
374.54
361.04
359.36
368.04
360.63
386.77
345.59
324.90
379.58
287.66
266.53
Feb.
439.58
406.40
409.85
434.06
362.94
373.41
349.41
356.21
361.64
355.41
367.34
342.64
323.96
368.76
275.46
263.91
Mar.
437.93
410.77
424.70
428.63
350.78
358.03
344.22
343.02
356.63
351.49
358.76
336.58
337.74
362.84
269.30
270.11
Apr.
435.61
378.34
417.47
424.91
341.72
353.20
339.16
329.22
348.94
361.43
356.44
338.33
336.96
360.37
280.80
287.57
May
433.31
377.62
410.97
413.74
352.28
343.83
333.92
322.53
343.22
365.34
351.58
339.98
352.02
354.51
272.14
319.45
Jun.
430.55
386.08
412.13
410.48
355.86
355.31
319.99
331.37
341.57
368.11
354.54
338.05
382.04
347.82
263.24
346.82
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
1994
29.73
29.59
27.97
27.58
27.85
27.44
1995
16.41
17.65
15.77
17.21
18.66
18.82
1996
19.56
20.15
21.23
21.75
21.81
21.74
1997
22.59
25.19
24.63
24.76
24.26
24.12
1998
23.05
22.11
21.42
21.17
21.71
21.35
1999
22.41
22.78
22.55
22.99
22.53
23.15
2000
24.75
24.30
24.43
23.99
23.44
21.91
2001
25.72
25.65
25.19
24.90
24.82
25.64
2002
28.55
28.25
28.43
27.77
26.57
25.95
2003
26.55
25.76
25.63
26.83
27.89
27.67
2004
29.28
27.96
27.76
27.37
26.58
27.12
2005
27.39
27.65
27.29
27.68
28.00
28.15
2006
28.64
28.79
29.54
29.15
30.72
32.81
2007
34.16
33.29
32.67
32.95
32.69
32.17
2008
26.91
26.39
26.15
28.04
27.49
27.04
2009
21.53
20.45
21.00
24.20
27.17
29.19
1/ D.F.- Central de Abasto de Iztapolapa, D.F.
Source: Servicio Nacional de Informacion de Mercados SNIIM-ECONOMICA.
Nominal pesos per 50 kg 1/
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
101.83
101.83
101.83
129.30
132.15
154.33
183.36
186.30
188.39
213.08
211.71
210.68
212.25
229.75
229.88
251.83
243.62
239.71
244.47
246.61
245.91
260.85
261.87
276.33
285.98
292.64
298.51
334.24
339.84
363.00
345.00
337.40
339.50
335.75
333.00
330.75
415.25
459.70
532.63
383.13
380.84
366.40
322.66
329.17
332.43
451.67
484.58
688.00
Real 2005 pesos per 50 kg
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
427.89
425.36
422.67
378.95
381.03
436.65
411.76
413.20
413.48
410.74
404.86
399.13
356.40
380.99
370.19
366.88
353.49
345.61
329.29
330.99
329.26
337.21
337.21
353.49
347.76
353.73
357.82
383.02
387.66
412.16
357.66
347.07
347.29
336.09
332.70
328.75
384.18
422.75
489.99
344.46
345.76
330.06
273.44
278.77
280.02
U.S. cents per pound
Jul.
Aug.
27.15
27.32
19.16
19.23
21.84
22.49
24.57
24.68
21.64
22.24
24.38
23.52
23.55
24.13
25.81
26.01
26.53
26.98
28.99
28.59
27.29
26.86
28.54
28.27
34.30
38.36
32.14
31.28
28.65
29.52
30.66
33.80
Sep.
27.15
22.16
22.65
24.56
20.41
23.28
23.83
26.60
26.89
30.15
26.81
27.82
43.97
30.13
28.28
46.56
Oct.
101.83
154.75
187.66
206.09
244.41
271.33
245.09
279.72
303.09
360.00
339.25
330.00
486.20
351.73
331.75
Nov.
101.85
159.84
186.40
206.63
250.01
267.38
259.57
277.48
306.90
365.00
338.20
335.60
435.75
331.99
330.42
Dec.
102.00
164.98
186.42
204.38
246.63
263.02
271.48
274.21
309.50
360.00
341.00
335.10
424.75
333.16
334.94
Calendar
101.85
132.99
180.25
209.88
220.44
249.63
250.52
267.64
290.92
333.38
340.68
335.74
409.37
378.04
323.06
Fiscal
99.31
118.50
173.51
205.17
210.12
244.57
252.66
263.04
283.58
319.59
346.23
337.22
380.54
405.52
324.71
Oct.
420.84
428.76
406.87
387.41
385.75
388.09
325.61
356.82
363.54
404.38
344.76
327.30
448.28
316.49
272.45
Nov.
418.81
430.44
397.55
382.06
389.14
379.87
342.73
353.91
365.60
406.60
342.81
332.70
402.24
297.68
269.05
Dec.
415.09
427.91
387.57
373.86
377.81
370.79
356.42
350.86
363.96
396.62
347.76
330.60
390.51
298.73
271.83
Calendar
429.04
402.90
409.22
405.52
366.39
363.59
338.50
344.27
356.04
379.40
355.23
335.78
382.96
342.25
274.51
Fiscal
425.05
400.21
417.14
409.57
365.61
364.75
348.00
341.20
353.41
369.86
369.59
339.50
362.10
369.60
282.81
Oct.
27.00
20.81
22.01
23.75
21.82
25.71
23.31
27.17
27.24
29.21
26.99
27.63
40.52
29.49
23.77
Nov.
26.84
18.85
21.37
22.66
22.75
25.76
24.77
27.29
27.31
29.70
26.98
28.53
36.22
27.68
22.85
Dec.
23.28
19.47
21.47
22.81
22.58
25.31
26.02
27.17
27.46
29.03
27.62
28.61
35.50
27.87
22.65
Calendar
27.41
18.68
21.51
24.05
21.86
23.70
24.03
26.00
27.33
28.00
27.39
27.96
34.04
31.38
26.48
Fiscal
27.64
20.18
21.03
23.69
22.03
22.90
24.26
25.37
27.30
27.51
27.91
27.70
31.75
33.64
27.79
54
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 24--Maple syrup: U.S. production and yield
State
2001
2002
Number of taps (1,000 taps)
Connecticut
57
62
Maine
1,280
1,280
Massachesetts
215
230
Michigan
350
365
New Hampshire
350
380
New York
1,326
1,414
Ohio
432
376
Pennsylvania
360
355
Vermont
2,100
2,180
Wisconsin
436
440
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Change
62
1,295
220
360
350
1,340
387
383
2,030
400
62
1,290
235
370
360
1,345
405
404
2,100
385
63
1,300
240
390
365
1,420
355
428
2,140
400
72
1,490
255
375
375
1,460
325
449
2,770
500
73
1,485
250
390
400
1,440
325
445
2,770
600
75
1,440
250
405
395
1,445
350
475
2,870
620
71
1,470
230
450
385
1,508
375
464
3,030
670
-5.3%
2.1%
-8.0%
11.1%
-2.5%
4.4%
7.1%
-2.3%
5.6%
8.1%
United States
6,906
7,082
6,827
6,956
7,101
8,071
8,178
8,325
8,653
3.9%
4,002
1,686
1,218
4,132
1,769
1,181
3,957
1,723
1,147
4,047
1,749
1,160
4,108
1,848
1,145
4,962
1,909
1,200
4,978
1,885
1,315
5,030
1,920
1,375
5,186
1,972
1,495
3.1%
2.7%
8.7%
Yield per tap (gallons)
Connecticut
Maine
Massachesetts
Michigan
New Hampshire
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Vermont
Wisconsin
0.175
0.181
0.172
0.186
0.143
0.166
0.222
0.192
0.138
0.156
0.161
0.215
0.209
0.205
0.218
0.184
0.199
0.169
0.234
0.180
0.161
0.22
0.168
0.164
0.171
0.157
0.132
0.136
0.217
0.181
0.169
0.225
0.213
0.216
0.231
0.19
0.193
0.149
0.239
0.238
0.162
0.191
0.167
0.149
0.156
0.156
0.194
0.143
0.201
0.111
0.153
0.232
0.157
0.208
0.171
0.173
0.218
0.147
0.235
0.200
0.151
0.168
0.160
0.167
0.175
0.158
0.194
0.124
0.231
0.158
0.253
0.167
0.260
0.259
0.241
0.227
0.286
0.211
0.247
0.242
0.183
0.269
0.200
0.256
0.244
0.240
0.240
0.198
0.304
0.299
-27.7%
61.1%
-23.1%
-1.2%
1.2%
5.7%
-16.1%
-6.2%
23.1%
23.6%
United States
0.165
0.208
0.185
0.217
0.175
0.208
0.185
0.230
0.269
17.0%
0.155
0.171
0.188
0.224
0.181
0.194
0.215
0.152
0.162
0.243
0.180
0.222
0.215
0.153
0.149
0.224
0.167
0.208
0.203
0.150
0.170
0.224
0.223
0.258
0.283
0.230
0.271
26.1%
3.3%
4.9%
10
232
37
65
50
220
96
69
290
68
10
275
48
75
83
260
75
60
510
79
10
285
37
59
60
210
51
52
460
76
11
290
50
80
83
255
78
60
550
100
11
265
40
58
57
222
63
61
510
50
11
345
40
78
64
253
71
66
650
100
11
250
40
65
70
228
63
55
640
95
19
240
65
105
95
328
100
100
710
150
13
395
46
115
94
362
90
92
920
200
-31.6%
64.6%
-29.2%
9.5%
-1.1%
10.4%
-10.0%
-8.0%
29.6%
33.3%
1,137
1,475
1,260
1,507
1,242
1,678
1,517
1,912
2,327
21.7%
New England
619
926
New York + PA
289
320
Midwest
229
229
1/ Includes 12,000 gallons from Minnesota in 1992.
Source: USDA, NASS, Crop Production .
852
262
186
984
315
258
883
283
171
1,110
319
249
1,011
283
223
1,129
428
355
1,468
454
405
30.0%
6.1%
14.1%
New England
New York + PA
Midwest
New England
New York + PA
Midwest
Production (1,000 gallons):
Connecticut
Maine
Massachesetts
Michigan
New Hampshire
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Vermont
Wisconsin
United States 1/
55
Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook/SSS-256/October 5, 2009
Economic Research Service, USDA
| File Type | application/pdf |
| File Title | Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook |
| Subject | Sugar, imports, exports, disappearance, domestic consumption, yield, supply, beet sugar, sugarcane, fructose, production, ERS, E |
| Author | Stephen Haley |
| File Modified | 2009-10-05 |
| File Created | 2009-10-05 |