2009Supporting Statement - Part B.wpd

SUPPORTING STATEMENT

U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Census Bureau

Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders Survey (Form MA-3000)

OMB Control No. 0607-0561

Part B - Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods

Question 1. Universe and Respondent Selection

The universe is defined as consisting of all domestic companies with one or more manufacturing establishments classified in the Major Manufacturing Activities List (MA-3000-I) in Appendix A. Companies with no establishments classified in these categories are excluded from the universe. Companies with fewer than five employees are not included in the target population.

Question 2. Procedures for Collecting Information

The Census Bureau’s final 2008 Business Register is the source of the sample frame. The sample frame will be comprised of companies by M3 category records. A company with activity in multiple categories will have multiple records. Each company by M3 category record will represent the combined activity of all establishments classified within the category. Each company by M3 category record will be assigned a probability of selection that is commensurate with its relative importance (based on value of shipments) within the M3 category and the relative importance of the M3 category. Consequently, a company with activity in multiple M3 categories will be assigned multiple probabilities. A company will be assigned a final probability equal to the maximum of its individual category probabilities. The sample will be comprised of approximately 6,000 companies and we expect the response rate to be atleast 80%.

Unfilled orders benchmark estimates for each category code will be derived. A simple weighted estimate of unfilled orders will be adjusted for each category using the ratio of shipments from the ASM to shipments from the Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders Survey. Each category will be adjusted separately.

Question 3. Methods to Maximize Response

An expected response rate of at least 80 percent can be predicted based on the unfilled orders benchmark survey that was conducted in 2008. There will be dedicated efforts to maximize response. Companies that do not respond to the survey will receive a follow-up letter and duplicate form. Subsequently, the Census Bureau will conduct telephone follow-up during the third month following mail-out of the original report form to obtain the data by telephone and/or urge the respondent to return the form with the data, or to document why the form was not completed. All forms will be reviewed and evaluated for any comments and suggestions made by the respondents to improve the survey results.

Question 4. Tests of Procedures or Methods

Periodically, the Census Bureau staff interviews survey respondents to assess our data requests and to keep abreast of the current record keeping practices and changes in technology.

Question 5. Contacts for Statistical Aspects and Data Collection

Person responsible for statistical methodology:

David L. Kinyon, Chief

Manufacturing Programs Methodology Branch

Manufacturing and Construction Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(301) 763-7209

Person responsible for data collection:

Chris Savage, Chief

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders Branch

Manufacturing and Construction Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(301) 763-4832

Attachments to the Supporting Statement

• Appendix A. Proposed MA-3000 Form, Instructions, and Major Manufacturing Activities List (MA-3000(I))

• Appendix B. Initial Mail-out and Follow-up Letters