2011_PPCS_OMB_SS with Passback Part A Final

Supporting Statement

A. Justification

1. Necessity of the Information Collection

We request clearance to conduct the Police Public Contact Survey (PPCS) as a supplement to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to collect information about the nature and consequences of respondent's interactions with the police. The NCVS and all related contacts and protocols for the 2011 collection year have been previously approved by OMB (OMB NO: 1121-0111), and this request is specifically for a supplemental data collection instrument that will be added to the approved NCVS core from July 2011 to December 2011. This collection is of significant consequence; the PPCS was designed to aid BJS in responding to the 1994 mandate with national statistics on excessive force. The goal of the collection is to report national statistics that provide a better understanding of the types and frequency of contacts between the police and the public, and the conditions under which force may be threatened or used.

The Police Public Contact Survey is conducted in part as one response to Section 210402 of the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 which mandates the collection, evaluation, and publication of data on the "use of excessive force by law enforcement officers" (see attachment 1). This Act was initiated due to the lack of reliable data on the extent of excessive force used by law enforcement officers, and requires an annual compellation of data on excessive force. The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) was assigned the lead responsibility for developing a national reporting program to address the incidence, prevalence, characteristics, and official response to the use of excessive force (see attachment 2).

The PPCS is unique, as it is the only national collection on police contact from the perspective of citizens, and the only national data collection that measures non-lethal use of force by police. The collection includes detailed questions about the use-of-force incidents, including the types of force police might have used and whether the respondent thought the amount of force used or threatened was excessive. Respondents who reported more than one contact were asked about the use of force by police during their most recent contact that year. Respondents who said they experienced police use or threat of force during their most recent contact were asked to describe that incident.

Classification issue in 2008

In 2008, BJS discovered classification issues that necessitated correction before the findings could be issued. These data collection errors resulted in a substantial change in the initial estimates.

The classification issue, due to use by interviewers of an “other specify” response category. Persons who had more than one contact were only asked about their most recent contact that year. Respondents were provided a list of six specific reasons for having contact with police: (1) traffic accident, (2) traffic stop, (3) reporting a crime, (4) police provided assistance, (5) police investigating crime, and (6) suspected of something by police. A seventh category allowed interviewers to record reasons that did not fall into any of the six specific reasons. Among the 9,549 respondents who had contact with police, 674 reported the reason for contact under this nonspecific category.

Following the data collection, BJS examined these write-in responses to determine if any descriptions fit one of the six categories and, when possible, coded the field into an existing category. This review uncovered 302 responses that indicated the reason for contact was related to a traffic stop.

Some of these records lacked sufficient detail to determine whether respondent was a driver or passenger in a vehicle that had been pulled over by police or was reporting some other type of contact that was connected to a traffic stop (e.g., paying a speeding ticket). Stopped drivers who were not originally classified under the specific category during the interview did not receive the additional questions about the traffic stop.

To address this problem, BJS instructed the Census Bureau to conduct follow-up interviews with 122 respondents (in the outgoing rotation) between July and September 2009 to seek clarification on the nature of their contact with police. Ninety respondents agreed to complete the follow-up interview. Of the completed interviews, 79 respondents reported that their contact with police occurred as a driver in a traffic stop and completed the additional set of questions regarding the traffic stops.

The information from the 79 respondents was added to the original file. The Methodology section of the 2008 report will contain a discussion of the misclassification and potential impact on the estimates.

This issue has been resolved in the 2008 collection instrument, that will be used in the 2011 collection, with an additional direction to the field interviewer to check with the respondent if the reason for the most recent “other specify” response was traffic related. In the 2011 instrument, the opportunity for the field interviewer to misclassify was eliminated. In the revised screeners, individuals will be tracked directly into a specific set of topical questions based on their direct response to a series of possible contacts. When a respondent indicates a contact for something not addressed in 9 prior screener questions, the FR is directed to reiterate the 9 previous types of contact and respondents are looped through the appropriate items.

Selected findings from past PPCS collections

The 1999 PPCS found that an estimated 20.9% of U.S. residents age 16 or older had a face-to-face contact at least once with a police officer during the year. This was about the same rate of contact between police and residents identified when the PPCS was conducted three years later in 2002. In 2005, an estimated 43.5 million, or 19.1 percent, of U.S. residents had face-to-face contact with police. This was a decline from previous years.

The PPCS produces reliable national estimates on the prevalence of police contact through data collected on traffic stops and other non-traffic related contacts. In addition to the data on contact rates, the PPCS provides national statistics on enforcement actions by law enforcement, the prevalence of police searches yielding evidence, and the proportion of searches conducted with consent of the detained individual.

Of the 43.5 million persons who had face-to-face contact with police in 2005, 29% had more than one contact. The most common reason for contact with police in both 2002

and 2005 involved a driver in a traffic stop. Nearly 18 million persons, or 41% of all contacts in 2005, indicated that their most recent contact with police was as a driver in a traffic stop. This represented about 8.8% of drivers in the United States, a percentage unchanged from 2002.

In both 2002 and 2005, white, black, and Hispanic drivers were stopped by police at similar rates, while blacks and Hispanics were more likely than whites to be searched by

About 5% of all stopped drivers were searched by police during a traffic stop. Police found evidence of criminal wrong-doing (such as drugs, illegal weapons, or other evidence of a possible crime) in 11.6% of searches in 2005.

An estimated 707,520 persons age 16 or older had force used against them during their most recent contact with police in 2005. This estimate is about 1.6% of the 43.5 million people reporting face-to-face police contact during 2005. The percentage of contacts involving police use of force was relatively unchanged from 2002 to 2005. In the 2005 PPCS all persons were asked if the police used or threatened to use force against them at any time during the year. An estimated 991,930 persons reported that they experienced force or the threat of force by police at least once in 2005.In both 2002 and 2005, blacks and Hispanics experienced police use of force at higher rates than whites. Of persons who had force used against them in 2005, an estimated 83% felt the force was excessive.

The differences found among gender, race, and age groups who experienced force in 2005 were consistent with the 2002 PPCS. Among the persons who had police contact in 2005, females (1.0%) were less likely than males (2.2%) to have had contact with police that resulted in force. Males accounted for a larger percentage (72.4%) of contacts involving force compared to their percentage of all contacts (53.6%). Blacks (4.4%) and Hispanics (2.3%) were more likely than whites (1.2%) to experience use of force during contact

with the police in 2005. Blacks accounted for 1 out of 10 contacts with police but 1 out of 4 contacts where force was used. Persons age 16 to 29 (2.8%) who had contact with police were more likely than those over age 29 (1.0%) to have had force used against them.

In the revised 2011 instrument, BJS plans to further improve overall measurement of contacts between police and public by including a series of specific questions about street stops. Street stops are also colloquially know as “stop and frisks,” where a police officer will stop someone who is perceived to be suspicious, and lightly frisks the individual in search of concealed weapons or contraband. This would include stops outside of one’s house, on a public street, or in other public areas. In previous PPCS collections, street stops have been included as non-traffic contacts, but respondents were not specifically asked any detail about their contact with law enforcement or the outcome of this contact. Recognizing that racial profiling is not limited to traffic stops, the 2011 collection will include detailed information on individuals who come in contact with the police during a street stop and the prevalence of evidence found from these searches.

The collection instrument has also improved the collection of voluntary contacts, the second most common reason for contact with police. Previous collections were able to capture the prevalence of these contacts, but no additional information on satisfaction with police service, and willingness to contact police in the future.

Finally, the 2011 Police Public Contact Survey has improved the measurement of public contact with police by improving the screening questions so that individuals are directly asked about specific contacts with the police and are then directed into a relevant series of questions about that event. This improved screener will ask about events, such as street stops and voluntary contacts that have not been specifically documented in previous PPCS collections. With the addition of street stops, the 2011 PPCS will be able to provide the first and only national estimate on the prevalence of street stops in the United States.

Capturing information on voluntary contacts will allow the PPCS to better estimate the various ways in which individuals come in contact with the police, and on a national scale, better understand how individuals willingness to reach out to the police to report a problem or request assistance. This information on both street stops and voluntary contacts marks a significant improvement for the PPCS collection, and will be value added data for law enforcement agencies, practitioners and social science researchers.

Experience collecting the PPCS since 1996

In May, June, and July 1996, the BJS supplemented the NCVS with a pilot test of an instrument (Police Public Contact Survey or PPCS) designed to collect answers from respondents to a series of questions about the nature and consequences of their face-to-face interactions with the police. The pilot test of the PPCS resulted in a total of 6,421 persons age 12 and over interviewed during the trial period in 1996. Because those interviewed had a known probability of selection, the sample was weighted to represent the 216 million residents of the country aged 12 or older. Respondents in the PPCS were asked about their interactions with the police during the 12 months prior to the interview. Findings from the first PPCS were reported in the November 1997 BJS-NIJ publication Police Use of Force: Collection of National Data (NCJ-165040). The survey findings revealed that 20 percent of the public had a direct, face-to-face contact with a police officer at least once during the year preceding the survey. Furthermore, the findings from this survey provided empirical information to help guide future development of an improved questionnaire on the topic. The BJS redesigned the PPCS to accomplish a number of objectives not addressed by the original survey instrument, particularly with respect to broadening the range of participants describing their interactions with the police.

The PPCS was once again conducted as a supplement to the NCVS between July 1, 1999 and December 31, 1999. An improved version of the survey instrument that included a new and more detailed set of questions about traffic stops by police was fielded among a national sample nearly 15 times as large as the pretest sample in 1996. Eligible survey respondents for the 1999 PPCS, however, were limited to those NCVS respondents who were 16 years of age or older. Estimates of the prevalence and nature of contacts between the public and police from the 1999 survey were nearly identical to those obtained from the 1996 pretest. The findings from the 1999 PPCS were reported in the February 2001 BJS publication Contact between Police and the Public (NCJ-184957) and revealed that about 21 percent of the public had a direct, face-to-face contact with a police officer at least once during the year preceding the survey. The PPCS was repeated as a supplement to the NCVS between July 1, 2002 and December 31, 2002, July through December 2005 and once again from July through December 2008. We plan to conduct the PPCS again as a supplement to the NCVS between July 1, 2011 and December 31, 2011, for which approval is being requested.

Expected contact rates

Data from past PPCS collections suggest that the contact rate between police and citizens has declined. The 1999 PPCS found that about 21% of U.S. residents age 16 or older had a face-to-face contact at least once with a police officer during the year. This was the same rate of contact between police and residents found when the PPCS was conducted three years later in 2002. However, the PPCS in 2005 found that about 19% of U.S. residents had face-to-face contact with police that year. This was a decrease from the 21% who had contact with police in 1999 and 2002. The results of the 2008 PPCS showed a continued decline in the rate of face-to-face contact between police and the public.

2. Uses of Information

The information generated by the prior waves of the police public contact survey has proven useful informing research and policy discussions about some of the most salient and continuing controversies in criminal justice policy making—police use of excessive force and racial differences in number and characteristics of traffic stops and searches. The information provided by residents contributes an independent source for systematic knowledge about the behavior of the police and is not dependent on official police records or self-reports from law enforcement officers.

The four prior implementations of the BJS police public contact survey generated nationally representative estimates of the prevalence of 1) police contacts with the public, 2) traffic stops, 3) searches, and 4) uses of force from the perspective of the public. In addition, these surveys generated estimates of the types of contacts and the characteristics of residents contacted, stopped, searched and against who force was used. These surveys also measured the extent to which the residents thought the police behavior was appropriate, whether the force used by the police was excessive, and whether the resident engaged in provocative behavior during their contact with the police (see attachment #3).

Since the initiation of the collection in 1999, BJS has published 6 reports based on the PPCS data:

Eith, Christine and Durose, Matthew R. (forthcoming, June 2011) Contacts Between the Police and the Public, 2008

Durose, Matthew R., Langan, Patrick A., and Smith, Erica L., (2007) Contacts Between the Police and the Public, 2005

Durose, Matthew R. and Erica L. Smith (2006) Characteristics of Drivers Stopped by the Police, 2002.

Durose, Matthew R., Langan, Patrick A., and Smith, Erica, L. (2005) Contacts between Police and Public: Findings from the 2002 National Survey

Durose, Matthew R., Langan, Patrick A., and Smith, Erica, L. (2002) Characteristics of Drivers Stopped by the Police, 1999.

Langan, Patrick A. . Greenfeld, Lawrence A., Smith, Steven K. Durose,

Matthew, R., and Levin, David J. (2001) Contacts between Police and the

Public Findings from the 1999 National Survey

The findings from BJS publications (and from the findings generated from independent uses of the publicly archived data generated by these surveys) are widely cited in research and professional journals and in media accounts that inform public policy about the nature of contemporary policing. Data from the PPCS has been used in over 100 scholarly journal articles, law reviews, and dissertations. In addition, these surveys and the resulting reports are the basis for most of BJS’s responses to numerous public and press inquiries concerning traffic stops, searches and police uses of force.

In conformity with the principles for Federal Statistical Agencies and the Data Quality Guidelines, BJS provides access to fully documented copies of the data collected as part of the police public contact survey. These data are available to the public through the BJS supported National Archive of Criminal Justice Data at the University of Michigan.

As a result of the public availability of these data, several independent research articles whose primary source of data is the police public contact survey have been published in scientific journals. Published research utilizing the Police Public Contact Survey have contributed significantly to the field of Criminology in the areas of racial profiling, police procedures during traffic stops, police use of force, and residents perception of police after a contact. Three prominent examples include -

Engel, Robin S. and Calnon, J. M. (2004) Examining the Influence of Drivers’ Characteristics during Traffic Stops with Police: Results from a National Survey. Justice Quarterly, 21: 49-90.

Engel, Robin S. (2005) Citizens' Perceptions of Distributive and Procedural Injustice During Traffic Stops with Police, Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 42: 445-481

Lundman, Richard J. and Kaufman, Robert L. (2003) Driving While Black: Effects of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender on Citizen Self-Reports of Traffic Stops and Police Actions, Criminology, 41:195-220.

As of January 2011, the Engel and Calnon article has been cited 69 times, the 2005 Engel article 47 times and the Lundman and Kaufman article 75 times.

Because of the unique characteristics of the Police Public Contact Survey, the findings from this collection have also been used by government officials, law enforcement, researchers and planners. Among the more notable uses of the data collection series is an explicit reference in HR 4611, The 2007 End Racial Profiling Act. The police public contact survey has also been useful to policymakers at the State level. For instance, Ralph Ioimo and his colleagues¹ designed and implemented a Virginia Police Public Contact Survey from which they could compare State specific findings to those reported by BJS for the nation.

3. Efforts to Minimize Burden

The 2011 PPCS will be conducted in a fully automated interviewing environment using computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). This is a result of the migration of the NCVS to a fully automated CATI and CAPI interviewing environment in July 2006. The NCVS discontinued its CATI operation in July 2007 due to budgetary reasons. Prior to July 2006, the NCVS and any periodic supplements used two modes of data collection, paper-and-pencil interviewing (PAPI) and DOS-based computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI).

The paper and pencil modality (PAPI) was eliminated in January 2006 (after the 2005 PPCS collection). Centralized CATI was eliminated in July 2007 (before the 2008 PPCS). Since July 2007, approximately a third of the NCVS interviews are conducted face-to-face in the sampled households (including all first interviews, all replacement households and all households requiring personal contact to obtain a response). This proportion has remained nearly constant since 2005.

The 2008 PPCS was collected in a single CAPI modality. The 2011 PPCS collection will use the same procedures (for the 15% of the sample that receives the 2008 instrument and for the 85% that receives the revised 2011 instrument). There are no expected mode effects between the 2008 and 2011 collections that could impact change estimates.

While centralized CATI was eliminated (due to cost consideration), decentralized CATI (from the FR’s home) was continued. Approximately two-thirds of NCVS interviews are collected using this mode. BJS does not intend to change the relative use of these modes for the 2011 PPCS.

Overall, 16.9% of respondents reported a police contact in 2008, down from 19.1% in 2005. While the possibility of a mode effect exists for the PPCS 2005 and 2008 estimates, the impact is likely small. The shift from PAPI to CAPI (or decentralized CATI) did not change the proportion receiving a face-to-face contact. As a proportion of all contacts, traffic stops increased from 41.0% in 2008 to 44.1% in 2011.

The current use of CAPI technologies reduces both respondent and interviewer burden. Furthermore, automated instruments afford the opportunity to implement inter-data item integrity constraints at the time of interview that minimize data inconsistency. More consistent data, in turn, reduces the need for extensive post-data collection editing and imputation processes, which significantly reduce the time needed to release the data for public consumption. The use of technology results in more accurate data products that are delivered in a more timely fashion.

Every effort is taken to ensure that the information collection minimizes respondent burden while simultaneously fulfilling all program objectives. To minimize respondent burden and nonresponse on supplements to the NCVS, supplemental questionnaires are designed to take no longer than 10 to 15 minutes to administer. For the PPCS, there are two types of interviews: a short interview consisting only of the screener questions and a long interview that is the complete questionnaire. The short interview consists of a brief 2-minute screener and captures if the respondent has had contact with police in the past 12 months, and if there was more than one contact, which was the most recent. If the respondent reports having contact with police in the past 12 months, he or she will then be tracked into the appropriate section of the PPCS questionnaire and be asked questions specific to a street stop, traffic stop, or voluntary contact based on the most recent contact reported in the screener. The screener and the more detailed questions on the most recent contact constitute a long interview, which is expected to take 10 minutes.

Because of the nearly 26 percent increase in sample size of the NCVS, there is an expectation that the overall burden of the PPCS will increase. In addition, changes to the screener to include non face-to-face voluntary contacts will result in an overall increase in burden. We expect the contact rate to increase from approximately 18 percent in 2008 to approximately 21 percent. The individual respondent burden of those completing the long interview will remain unchanged (at 10 minutes in length).

In order to measure the impact of changes in the questionnaire and assess trends in the prevalence and nature of police public contacts since 2008, BJS intends to administer the 2011 PPCS collection as a split-half design where 25 percent of the sample will be randomly assigned the unchanged 2008 instrument (OMB number: 1121-0260) and the remaining 75 percent of the sample will received the revised 2011 instrument. The difference in the respondent burden between the unchanged 2008 questionnaire and the revised 2011 questionnaire is minimal (an increase of 0.5 minutes per interview).

4. Efforts to Identify Duplication

A review of the relevant literature and communications with subject matter experts has confirmed that there will be no duplication of effort based on the nature and scope of this data collection. There is also no identified duplication with any other Office of Justice Programs or Department of Justice data collections. The information sought is not attainable from any other data source.

This collection will add to the current PPCS series, which began with a pilot test conducted in May through July 1996 leading to national collections conducted in July through December of 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2008. The results from this survey provided estimates of the prevalence of citizen contacts with police, including contacts in which police used force. There is no other information source available on this subject collected.

5. Minimizing Burden on Small Businesses

No information will be gathered from small businesses.

6. Consequences of Not Conducting Collection

The supplement will be conducted from July through December 2011. Regular inclusion of this supplement into the NCVS is on a triennial basis. There are no other current national data available to analyze the use of force, in particular non-lethal use of force, by law enforcement agencies. In response to The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, BJS employs the PPCS for the collection, evaluation, and publication of data from the U.S. resident population on the "use of excessive force by law enforcement officers." If the information were collected less frequently, this valuable data source would not be included in the compellation of data provided to the Attorney General, limiting the perspective on use of force to only official police data. Further, states would not be able to use this data as a benchmark to determine how traffic stops in their state compare to the national picture.

The PPCS is an integral component of BJS’s response to the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act. BJS also manages the Arrest Related Deaths collection, which collects data on the number of individuals who died in the presence of law enforcement. In addition, BJS draws on data from other federal collections on police use of force. BJS has also published a series of reports titled “Homicide Trends in the United States” that include the latest national statistics from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports on justifiable homicides by police. BJS has also published findings from special collections, including “Traffic Stop Data Collection Policies for State Police.” This collection included information on the number of state police agencies that routinely keep administrative records on police use of force in traffic stops. BJS has also released a report on citizen complaints about police use of force, using its Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS) data collection. However, the PPCS is the only collection that provides comparable information on police public contact over time.

7. Special circumstances that would increase respondent burden

None.

8. Consultation Outside of the Agency

The Census Bureau, the BJS, and a group of outside experts have collaborated over the years to develop the questions and procedures used to collect this supplemental information. For the 2011 PPCS, persons consulted from the Census Bureau included Jeremy Shimer, Chris Seamands, Edward Madrid, and Theresa DeMaio.

In March 2010, BJS hosted a workgroup meeting for the upcoming 2011 PPCS. Participants included subject matter experts from academia and research professionals. Participants discussed a variety of topics, including survey content, data availability, clarity of instructions, methods to maximize response and ways to minimize respondent burden.

Attendees of the PPCS working group meeting included –

Robert Davis

RAND

Wesley Skogan

Northwestern University

Robin Engel

University of Cincinnati

Tom Tyler

New York University

Matthew Zingraff

George Mason University

Steven Mastrofski

George Mason University

Additional members of the Criminal Justice community who have commented on a draft

of the 2011 Police Public Contact Survey Questionnaire included –

John Eck

University of Cincinnati

John MacDonald

University of Pennsylvania

Charles Klahm, IV

St. Joseph’s University (NY)

Lorie Fridell

University of South Florida

Samuel Walker

University of Nebraska, Omaha

Edward Maguire

American University

Barry Ruback

Penn State University

Alexis Piquero

Florida State University

Geoffery Alpert

University of South Carolina

9. Paying Respondents

Incentive payments or gifts to respondents to encourage participation are not provided.

10. Assurance of Confidentiality

All information that can identify individuals will be held strictly confidential by the Census Bureau and the BJS according to the provisions stated in Title 13, United States Code, Section 9, and Title 42, United States Code, Sections 3789g and 3735. Only Census Bureau employees sworn to preserve this confidentiality, with a need to know, may access and review PPCS data. The respondents are assured confidentiality and informed that their participation is voluntary in a letter from the Director of the Census Bureau (see attachment 4).

11. Justification for Sensitive Questions

No questions relating to sexual behaviors, religious beliefs, or other matters commonly considered private or of a sensitive nature are asked in these supplemental questions.

12. Estimate of Respondent Burden

The yields we receive from the NCVS sample in quarters 3 and 4, 2009 were used to develop projected burden hour estimates for the 2011 PPCS. These were the most

up-to-date data available at the time this estimate was produced. The quarters 3 and 4, 2009 household and person counts were adjusted to reflect the BJS’s recent decision (in May 2010) to reinstate sample sizes by nearly 26 percent from the current 8,500 sample cases per month to 10,720 sample cases a month in October 2010. It is expected that a total of 64,320 households will be in the NCVS sample in 2011, and approximately 48,787 of these households will be interviewed.

We expect the 48,787 interviewed NCVS households to yield:

Total persons 12+: 96,747

Total persons 16+: 90,700

Interviewed 16+: 72,560

NCVS Type Z 16+: 18,140

2005 PPCS Results

Total PPCS records 80,237

Interviews 63,943 79.7% (Of total PPCS records)

Short 52,089 81.5% (No police contact)

Long 11,842 18.5% (Police contact)

Noninterviews 16,294 20.3% (Of total PPCS records)

2008 PPCS Results

Total PPCS records 72,566

Interviews 57,978 79.9% (Of total PPCS records)

Short 48,429 83.5% (No police contact)

Long 9,549 16.5% (Police contact)

Noninterviews 14,588 20.1% (Of total PPCS records)

A short PPCS interview is one that screens out of the supplement, that is, the respondent did not experience any contact with the police during the reference period. Due to the significant restructuring of the screener section of the 2011 PPCS questionnaire we expect the time to conduct a short interview to increase from 1.5 minutes to 2 minutes or .033 hours.

A long PPCS interview, conversely, is an interview where the respondent did experience contact with the police during the reference period. For 2011, each long interview will take 10 minutes or .167 hours.

2011 Hour Burden Estimate Projection

The final hour burden estimate assumes that the total NCVS sample from July through December 2011 will be approximately 64,320 households yielding approximately 90,700 persons 16 years of age and older. Based on the 2005 and 2008 PPCS results, we expect an 80 percent response rate for the PPCS which translates into 72,560 interviews and 18,140 noninterviews. Of the 72,560 PPCS interviews we would expect, based on findings from the 1999 collection and response rates from the 2005 and 2008 PPCS collections, approximately 79 percent will have no police contact (short interview) and the other 21 percent will have police contact (long interview). As a result of revisions to the screener and addition of non-face-to-face voluntary contacts, we expect to see a slight increase in the overall prevalence, closer to that found in the 1999 PPCS collection (21%).

The 2011 PPCS data collection will be run with a split-half design where 15 percent of the sample will be randomly assigned to the unchanged 2008 questionnaire and 85 percent of the sample will be assigned the revised 2011 instrument. Each short interview will take an estimated 2 minutes (or .033 hours) for the revised 2011 instrument and 1.5 minutes (.025 hours) for the unchanged 2008 collection instrument. Each long interview will take on average 10 minutes (or .167 hours), regardless of questionnaire or type of contact (e.g, traffic stop, street stop, or voluntary contact).

	Number of PPCS persons	Time per interview	Burden hours (A x B)
Total expected PPCS eligible persons	90,700
Expected PPCS interviews	72,560
Expected PPCS short interviews using 2008 instrument	14,330	.025 hours	358 hours
Expected PPCS short interviews using 2011 instrument	42,992	.033 hours	1,419 hours
Expected PPCS long interviews	15,238	.167 hours	2,545 hours
Expected PPCS noninterviews	18,140
2011 PPCS burden hours estimate			4,322 hours
2008 PPCS burden hours on file			3,037 hours
Change in respondent burden hours from 2008 to 2011			1,285 hours

13. Estimate of Respondents’ Cost Burden

There are no costs to respondents other than that of their time to respond.

14. Estimated Cost to Federal Government

BJS Cost Estimate Summary

These costs include $138,212 for data collection of the 2011 Police Public Contact Survey, overall program management, data analysis, publication review and dissemination by BJS:

Table 2: Estimated costs for the 2011 Police Public Contact Survey.

Staff Salaries
	GS-15 Supervisory Statistician (10%) GS-13 Statistician (50%) GS-13 Statistician (25%)		12,376 45,516 22,758
	GS-13 Technical Editor (3%)		2,671
	GS-12 Production Editor (2%)		1,497
	GS-13 Digital Information Specialist (2%)		1,781
	Salary Subtotal		86,599
Benefits
	Fringe Benefits (33% of salaries) Administrative Costs (20% of salaries and fringe)		28,578 23,035
	Total Estimated Costs		138,212

Data Collection Agent Cost Summary

The U.S. Census Bureau will act as the data collection agent for the 2011 PPCS. Under the 24-month agreement, from September 1, 2010 through September 30, 2012, Census will develop, test, and finalize the 2011 PPCS survey instrument, develop all data collection support and training materials, train interviewers and support staff, collect, process, and disseminate the 2011 PPCS data. The total estimated costs of all these activities $859,859. The BJS will bear all costs. The staff salaries are presented by fiscal year since the 2011 PPCS project spans fiscal years 10, 11, and 12. Salaries represent burdened rates (benefits and overheads).

FY10

Staff Salaries

GS-15 Supervisory Statistician $21,317

GS-12 Survey Statistician $11,633

GS-7/9 Administrative Support/Recruiting $ 5,612

Total estimated costs $38,562

FY11

Staff Salaries

GS-15 Supervisory Statistician $51,608

GS-14 Supervisory Statistician $24,800

GS-13 Supervisory Statistician/

Computer Programmer $44,600

GS-12 Survey Statistician/

Computer Programmer $375,059

GS-7/9 Administrative Support/Recruiting $27,115

Total estimated costs $523,182

FY12

Staff Salaries

GS-15 Supervisory Statistician

GS-14 Supervisory Statistician $39,528

GS-13 Supervisory Statistician/

Computer Programmer $146,065

GS-12 Survey Statistician $112,522

GS-7/9 Administrative Support/Recruiting

Total estimated costs $298,115

Grand total estimated costs FY10-FY12 $859,859

15. Reasons for Change in Burden

In an effort to minimize respondent burden and nonresponse on supplements to the NCVS, supplemental questionnaires are designed to take no longer than 10 to 15 minutes to administer. For the PPCS, only those respondents who indicate that they had contact will be asked additional questions about their interaction with the police. Due to the increase in the NCVS sample size we expect a 1,285 hour increase in respondent burden.

As previously stated, results from previous administrations of the PPCS show that approximately 18.5 percent of interviewed respondents experienced a face-to-face contact with the police in the 12 months preceding their interview. With the revisions made to the 2011 PPCS instrument, the overall rate of contact between the police and public may increase due to better measurement and inclusion of non-face-to-face voluntary contacts. These non-face-to-face contacts were included in the 1999 PPCS collection, in which the overall contact rate was 21 percent. In subsequent years, these contacts were excluded and the overall contacts declined to 18.5 percent.

There have been no changes made to the 2008 collection instrument, and no change in the burden (see attachment 5). We expect that the 25 percent of respondents who complete this questionnaire with a short interview lasing 1.5 minutes and the long interview lasting 10 minutes.

In the 2011 collection, we have included a series of 8 questions (see q 71 through 79) that asks about a respondent’s non face-to-face contact with police. These questions are focused police satisfaction, and willingness to contact police in the future. In previous collections, voluntary contacts would have only been included only if the contact with face-to-face (see attachments 6 and 7).

BJS has also made changes to the 2011 questionnaire screener in an attempt to better measure the overall contact rate between police and public. Recent collections were limited by asking only one very basic screening question confirming contact with the police. An expert review indicated that similar data collections from other countries, for instance the British Crime Survey, often yield higher contact rates between the police and public due in large part to a very detailed set of screener questions which prime respondents to various types of police contact. In an attempt to more accurately measure the prevalence of contacts between and the public, two new screener questions were added to specifically ask about 10 different types of contacts that an individual may have had with police over the past year. These screener questions are the basis for filtering respondents out of the survey if there are no contacts reported as well as identifying the appropriate series of questions that should be completed if the respondent had a contact with police, including non face-to-face voluntary contacts.

We expect only a minor change, a 0.5 minute increase, to the individual respondent burden of 75 percent of the sample, as the revised 2011 screener added a question that asks respondents if they have had 12 different experiences with police, including but not limited to reporting a crime or suspicious person, participating in an anti-crime program, been stopped by police, or been involved in a traffic accident. This new question should provide a better measure of contact with police, asking respondents to affirm or deny each of these common situations with police. From the individual’s response to these series of experiences, the individuals will be asked additional detail on the most recent contact.

There is no expected change in burden for collecting additional information regarding street stops. The PPCS has collected information on these non-traffic related stops in the past, but never about the outcome of the stop and perceived legitimacy of the stop. In the 2011 collection, there have been a series of additional questions added to better capture the reason police gave for this contact, the residence compliance with police, and police action which includes use of force; however, they do not have an impact on the overall individual burden, and can still be completed within the 10 minutes estimated for a long interview.

16. Plans for Publication

The project schedule for the 2011 Police Public Contact Survey is as follows:

• Data collection for the 2011 PPCS is expected to run from July 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011.

• BJS expects to receive only one preliminary data snapshot, a quarter-3 file covering data collection from July and August, which is expected around the end of September 2011. This file will be used to assist Census and BJS in developing variable and value labels for each variable and to run initial checks on the data formatting to ensure that there are no errors in the structure of the data file.

• The complete public use data file is expected to be delivered to BJS by April 16, 2012. Once received, the data file will be checked for any errors and any necessary corrections will be made prior to data analysis.

• The final report, Contacts Between the Police and Public, 2011, is expected to be released by December 2012.

The 2011 analysis plan will expand upon the 2008 analysis:

In the 2011 report, the prevalence estimates will be provided in 2 ways. The first statistic will be equivalent to the 2008 estimates, including only face-to-face contacts with the police and excluding those classified as street stops. The second statistic will present the prevalence estimate including the face-to-face street stops and the non-face-to-face contacts for a complete prevalence of all contacts with police in 2011. There will then be an explanation provided to readers regarding the difference between the two measures, and how with improved measurement, BJS is able to capture a more complete prevalence estimate of contact with police.

Additional analyses examining the change in contact rates using the two methodologies will be provided in the Methodology section of the 2011 report. A section in the methodology dedicated to explaining the changes in measurement in 2011 compared to past collection, and the results of the analysis comparing revisions between 2008 and 2011 within the split sample of the 2011 collection.

The goal of the split-sample experiment is to determine if the changes in the 2011 collection instrument, namely the improved screeners, have an impact on the prevalence measures (principally, percent reporting a police contact and percent reporting a traffic stop). An important part of the analysis of the 2011 PPCS data is a comparison with past PPCS data. BJS wants to avoid any break in series while introducing needed improvements to measurement.

Based on a power analysis completed by the Census Bureau, the PPCS collection agent, the plan is to split the sample so that 85% of the sample will receive the revised 2011 collection instrument and 15% will receive the 2008 collection instrument. This will be achieved by forming reduction groups (of households) and then randomly assigning the questionnaires to each group. The formation of reduction groups (or subsamples) allows a reduction in the sample size that leaves a representative sample after the reduction. While the number of subsamples is somewhat arbitrary, a useful attribute is that it is prime to the number of rotation groups (six) so that reductions have a uniform effect across rotations.

For NCVS, there are typically four households in a hit string. All households in a hit string have the same reduction group number.

• For the unit, area, and group quarters (GQ) frames, hit strings are sorted and then sequentially assigned a reduction group code from 1 through 101.

• For the permit frame, a random start is generated for each stratification PSU and permit frame hits are assigned a reduction group code from 1 through 101 following a specific, nonsequential pattern. (This method of assigning reduction group code is used to improve balancing of reduction groups because of small permit sample sizes in some PSUs and the uncertainty about which PSUs will actually have permit samples over the life of the design.)

At the time of the determination of the split sample, all reduction groups will be in the sample. This permits a split in the sample to be achieved in the same way the Census Bureau would reduce the sample and maintain representative samples. Each reduction group will represent slightly less than one percent of the NCVS households. To obtain an 85/15 percent split, 15 of the 101 reductions groups, using a random start and systematic selection, will receive the old 2008 questionnaire and the rest will receive the new 2011 questionnaire.  All persons in the household will receive the same questionnaire type.

The expect levels of power are presented in Table 1 below.  Using the 2008 data, Census simulated the proposed design for 2011 and calculated the police contact rate for each sample split and its respective standard error. The results show that the 85/15 percent split should be expected to detect a difference of about 7.5 percent, and a 75/25 percent split should detect a 6.7% difference at a 95% confidence level. For BJS’s purpose, the power from the 85/15 split was judged to be sufficient.

Table 1: Estimated Effects of Different Sample Splits

PPCS	0.25	0.75		0.15	0.85
Rate	17.24	16.81		16.50	16.99
CV	0.03	0.02		0.03	0.02
SE	0.47	0.34		0.56	0.32
VAR	0.22	0.11		0.31	0.10
VAR (diff)	0.33			0.42
SE (diff)	0.57			0.65
95% CI	1.13			1.27
% diff detect=CI/new rate	6.70			7.47

The 85/15 percent split will allow BJS to study the measurement effects between the 2008 and 2011 instruments using the same methodology and to determine if any observed change in the level of contact between 2008 and 2011 is true change or a result of changes to the questionnaire. The key measures that will be analyzed are the overall contact rate and the proportion reporting a traffic stop contact.

With respect to the overall contact rate, the 1999 PPCS found that an estimated 20.9% of U.S. residents age 16 or older experienced face-to-face contact at least once with a police officer during the year. About the same percentage of contact between police and U.S. residents (21.1%) was identified when the PPCS was conducted 3 years later in 2002. An estimated 19.1% of U.S. residents had a face-to-face contact with police in 2005 (which was a statistically significant decrease from the rates in 1999 and 2002). In 2008, the percentage of residents who experienced contact with police further decreased to 16.9%.

With changes to the 2011 questionnaire, it is expected that this prevalence will increase due to the change in measurement; however, this increase may be offset by the continuation of the general decline in police public contact from 1999 to 2008. BJS intends to decompose the change from 2008 to 2011 into component parts: (1) change due to new measurement and (2) change in actual levels of contact. To do so, BJS will examine the split sample in 2011 by calculating rates based on the new and old survey questionnaires. Any statistically significant difference will then be further decomposed to understand the underlying nature of the change (based on type of contact). This can only be done with a split sample.

Based on the comparison of the split samples, BJS intends to calculate a 2011 estimate adjusted for methodological changes and compositional/definitional differences. The adjusted 2011 rate will then be based on a combination of the results from the old questionnaire and new questionnaire adjusted for the measurement effect. It is this adjusted rate in comparison with the 2008 PPCS rate that will be used as the measure of actual change in police contact. Similar analytical work is expected for measuring change in the proportion reporting a traffic stop.

All public use data files will then be made available to the public through the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD) and through Data.gov.

17. Display of Expiration Date

The OMB approval number and expiration date will be displayed on the PPCS introduction screen within the CAPI instrument. The final production PPCS CAPI instrument for July 2011 will be delivered for production to Census Systems in early June 2011.

18. Exceptions to the Certification Statement

There are no exceptions.

1 Ioimo, et al (2008) The Citizen’s View of Biased Policing, Professional Issues in Criminal Justice, 3: 1-13.