Publication - Advance Report on Durable Goods

Appendix C

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2011, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
Chris Savage or Adriana Stoica
Manufacturing and Construction Division
(301) 763-4832

M3-1 (11)-11
CB11-217

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders
November 2011
New Orders

Inventories

New orders for manufactured durable goods in
November increased $7.5 billion or 3.8 percent to
$207.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced
today. This increase, up four of the last five months,
followed a slight October increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent.
Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.7 percent.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in
November, up twenty three consecutive months,
increased $2.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $368.8 billion.
This was at the highest level since the series was first
published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.4 percent
October increase.

Transportation equipment, up following two
consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase,
$7.0 billion or 14.7 percent to $54.4 billion.

Transportation equipment, also up twenty three
consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.0 billion
or 0.9 percent to $114.3 billion.
Capital Goods

Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in
November, down two of the last three months, decreased
$0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $202.8 billion. This
followed a 1.5 percent October increase.
Transportation equipment, down three of the last four
months, had the largest decrease, $1.2 billion or 2.5
percent to $47.2 billion.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in
November, up nineteen of the last twenty months,
increased $11.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $898.1 billion.
This followed a 0.3 percent October increase.
Transportation equipment, up ten of the last eleven
months, had the largest increase, $7.2 billion or 1.4
percent to $518.1 billion.

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November
increased $5.9 billion or 8.1 percent to $78.7 billion.
Shipments decreased $1.6 billion or 2.2 percent to $69.8
billion. Unfilled orders increased $8.9 billion or 1.7
percent to $531.5 billion. Inventories increased $1.4
billion or 0.9 percent to $169.5 billion.
Defense new orders for capital goods in November
increased $0.2 billion or 3.7 percent to $6.8 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $6.9
billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1
percent to $152.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.4
billion or 1.8 percent to $20.6 billion.
Revised October Data
Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all
manufacturing industries were: new orders, $451.1
billion (revised from $450.0 billion); shipments, $455.3
billion (revised from $455.4 billion); unfilled orders,
$887.0 billion (revised from $885.9 billion); and total
inventories, $606.9 billion (revised from $607.1 billion).

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for
semiconductor manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to .
Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on January 4, 2012, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The
advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for release on January 26, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page for
survey description.

2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1
[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]
Monthly

Seasonally Adjusted
Percent Change

Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly

Year to Date

Item
Nov
2011 2

Oct
2011

r

Sep
2011

Oct 2
Nov

Sep r
Oct

Aug Sep

Nov
2
2011

Oct
2011

r

Nov
2010

2011

2010

Change
11/10

DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders 4…………………………

202,835
206,990

203,670
199,475

200,700
199,462

-0.4
3.8

1.5
0.0

-0.4
-1.4

195,496
197,302

208,423
196,763

180,259
175,786

2,176,210
2,156,423

2,015,812
1,968,958

8.0
9.5

Excluding transportation:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders 4…………………………

155,590
152,542

155,213
152,022

154,644
149,766

0.2
0.3

0.4
1.5

0.1
0.8

148,716
143,337

158,873
151,573

137,421
134,574

1,663,446
1,622,107

1,525,298
1,486,403

9.1
9.1

Excluding defense:
Shipments…………………………..
4
New Orders …………………………

193,544
197,853

194,599
190,746

190,961
188,757

-0.5
3.7

1.9
1.1

-0.3
-1.5

186,151
189,748

199,605
189,794

169,361
165,825

2,068,440
2,046,205

1,885,619
1,844,031

9.7
11.0

Manufacturing with unfilled orders:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

145,879
156,978

146,121
149,013

145,446
150,847

-0.2
5.3

0.5
-1.2

0.4
-1.1

140,148
148,572

146,554
144,440

129,894
131,403

1,564,688
1,619,174

1,448,337
1,468,731

8.0
10.2

Primary metals:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

26,575
27,583

25,545
26,219

24,575
24,889

4.0
5.2

3.9
5.3

1.5
1.9

24,374
25,233

25,465
24,914

18,064
20,161

263,692
263,931

203,164
209,363

29.8
26.1

Fabricated metal products:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

25,339
25,881

25,216
25,820

25,310
25,818

0.5
0.2

-0.4
0.0

1.0
1.3

24,430
24,377

26,065
25,928

22,889
22,653

275,826
281,451

260,128
260,762

6.0
7.9

Machinery:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

30,605
32,031

30,396
31,741

31,140
31,398

0.7
0.9

-2.4
1.1

-1.0
-1.9

28,381
29,149

30,081
31,755

24,973
26,165

321,913
344,989

285,820
301,529

12.6
14.4

Computers and electronic products :
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

30,560
23,829

31,265
24,926

30,921
24,602

-2.3
-4.4

1.1
1.3

-0.8
2.2

29,769
22,271

33,738
24,754

31,062
24,416

336,188
261,281

331,019
263,709

1.6
-0.9

Computers and related products:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

5,909
6,012

6,428
6,399

6,026
6,145

-8.1
-6.0

6.7
4.1

4.0
6.4

5,269
5,372

7,053
7,024

5,445
5,656

62,699
62,536

56,743
56,895

10.5
9.9

Communications equipment:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

2,820
2,818

2,909
3,143

3,165
3,101

-3.1
-10.3

-8.1
1.4

3.1
5.9

2,960
2,368

2,603
3,065

3,958
3,102

33,472
31,891

40,146
39,033

-16.6
-18.3

Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

9,933
10,460

10,155
10,590

10,275
10,694

-2.2
-1.2

-1.2
-1.0

-0.3
1.4

9,745
10,118

10,230
10,683

9,796
10,354

111,065
115,057

105,123
109,511

5.7
5.1

Transportation equipment:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

47,245
54,448

48,457
47,453

46,056
49,696

-2.5
14.7

5.2
-4.5

-1.9
-7.5

46,780
53,965

49,550
45,190

42,838
41,212

512,764
534,316

490,514
482,555

4.5
10.7

Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

29,843
29,919

30,241
30,068

28,362
28,386

-1.3
-0.5

6.6
5.9

-1.8
-2.2

29,445
29,705

32,575
32,543

26,145
26,394

323,932
323,795

294,861
294,181

9.9
10.1

Nondefense aircraft and parts:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

7,727
15,096

8,721
8,709

8,049
10,127

-11.4
73.3

8.3
-14.0

3.1
-26.7

7,859
16,033

7,655
5,296

6,289
5,440

78,843
101,340

70,703
76,096

11.5
33.2

Defense aircraft and parts:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

3,800
4,292

3,704
3,830

3,792
3,331

2.6
12.1

-2.3
15.0

-6.4
-34.5

3,731
3,897

3,590
3,262

4,456
4,429

43,852
45,792

53,503
53,317

-18.0
-14.1

All other durable goods:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

32,578
32,758

32,636
32,726

32,423
32,365

-0.2
0.1

0.7
1.1

0.3
1.2

32,017
32,189

33,294
33,539

30,637
30,825

354,762
355,398

340,044
341,529

4.3
4.1

Capital goods :
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

76,686
85,433

78,343
79,305

78,679
83,750

-2.1
7.7

-0.4
-5.3

-0.4
-2.8

73,761
81,199

77,314
75,126

70,827
69,889

828,636
874,956

784,833
797,582

5.6
9.7

Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

69,793
78,667

71,376
72,783

71,087
75,387

-2.2
8.1

0.4
-3.5

-0.5
-3.5

66,769
75,866

70,577
70,249

62,265
62,555

744,762
788,574

680,185
699,064

9.5
12.8

Shipments………………………

65,190

65,834

66,350

-1.0

-0.8

-0.5

61,934

65,785

58,648

698,974

638,603

9.5

New Orders……………………..

67,062

67,847

68,451

-1.2

-0.9

1.4

62,917

68,346

60,027

722,664

652,668

10.7

Defense capital goods:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

6,893
6,766

6,967
6,522

7,592
8,363

-1.1
3.7

-8.2
-22.0

0.4
4.0

6,992
5,333

6,737
4,877

8,562
7,334

83,874
86,382

104,648
98,518

-19.9
-12.3

4

3

Excluding aircraft:

r

Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.

1

Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of
shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate,
as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.

2

Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which
includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design,
methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.

3

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,
laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all
other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and
control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and
medical equipment and supplies.
Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4

Estimates of shipments for the semiconductor industry are no longer shown separately. Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included
in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data.

3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]
Seasonally Adjusted
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly
Percent Change
Monthly
Item
Nov
Oct
Sep
Oct Sep Aug Nov
Oct
Nov
2011
Sep
2010
Nov 2
2011 2
2011 r
Oct r
2011 r
2011 2

Percent
2011/
2010

DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

898,123
368,847

887,024
366,809

884,132
365,314

1.3
0.6

0.3
0.4

0.6
0.0

883,944
369,296

875,520
367,198

819,067
332,620

7.9
11.0

379,977
254,522

376,081
253,462

372,185
252,584

1.0
0.4

1.0
0.3

0.5
-0.1

373,132
254,664

371,893
253,516

333,112
233,423

12.0
9.1

726,827
342,775

715,574
341,116

712,340
339,708

1.6
0.5

0.5
0.4

0.6
0.1

718,092
343,305

707,877
341,475

660,370
307,547

8.7
11.6

Manufacturing with unfilled orders:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

898,123
302,363

887,024
300,394

884,132
299,420

1.3
0.7

0.3
0.3

0.6
-0.2

883,944
302,802

875,520
300,839

819,067
271,318

7.9
11.6

Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

33,811
34,441

32,803
34,303

32,129
34,331

3.1
0.4

2.1
-0.1

1.0
-0.5

31,900
33,971

31,041
34,206

29,900
30,062

6.7
13.0

Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

66,454
46,431

65,912
46,251

65,308
45,941

0.8
0.4

0.9
0.7

0.8
-0.1

64,913
45,893

64,966
45,950

59,289
41,346

9.5
11.0

Machinery:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

118,538
60,382

117,112
59,795

115,767
59,619

1.2
1.0

1.2
0.3

0.2
0.3

117,354
60,960

116,586
59,686

91,991
53,712

27.6
13.5

Computers and electronic products4:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

125,036
47,884

124,823
48,117

124,075
48,128

0.2
-0.5

0.6
0.0

0.3
-0.7

123,237
48,620

124,117
48,549

120,579
46,709

2.2
4.1

Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

3,491
6,140

3,388
6,139

3,417
6,083

3.0
0.0

-0.8
0.9

3.6
1.9

3,491
6,378

3,388
6,193

3,696
5,744

-5.5
11.0

Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

28,397
9,502

28,399
9,698

28,165
9,734

0.0
-2.0

0.8
-0.4

-0.2
-3.0

28,010
9,781

28,602
9,795

28,458
9,724

-1.6
0.6

Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

27,666
15,613

27,139
15,458

26,704
15,389

1.9
1.0

1.6
0.4

1.6
-1.2

27,244
15,474

26,871
15,456

23,019
14,877

18.4
4.0

Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

518,146
114,325

510,943
113,347

511,947
112,730

1.4
0.9

-0.2
0.5

0.7
0.3

510,812
114,632

503,627
113,682

485,955
99,197

5.1
15.6

Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

13,813
26,428

13,737
26,504

13,910
26,258

0.6
-0.3

-1.2
0.9

0.2
1.9

13,659
26,595

13,399
26,532

13,220
23,914

3.3
11.2

Nondefense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

363,095
62,539

355,726
61,837

355,738
61,199

2.1
1.1

0.0
1.0

0.6
-0.3

359,913
62,674

351,739
62,016

336,472
50,496

7.0
24.1

Defense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

55,817
14,880

55,325
14,302

55,199
14,565

0.9
4.0

0.2
-1.8

-0.8
1.0

54,045
14,811

53,879
14,376

50,885
14,023

6.2
5.6

All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

8,472
49,771

8,292
49,538

8,202
49,176

2.2
0.5

1.1
0.7

-0.7
0.5

8,484
49,746

8,312
49,669

8,334
46,717

1.8
6.5

Capital goods3:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

683,509
190,124

674,762
188,327

673,800
187,245

1.3
1.0

0.1
0.6

0.8
-0.2

674,532
191,588

667,094
188,755

622,950
168,412

8.3
13.8

Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

531,495
169,519

522,621
168,085

521,214
167,207

1.7
0.9

0.3
0.5

0.8
0.1

527,352
170,995

518,255
168,557

481,719
148,452

9.5
15.2

Excluding aircraft:
Unfilled Orders………………..
Total Inventories……………….

211,482
115,788

209,610
114,968

207,597
114,624

0.9
0.7

1.0
0.3

1.0
0.3

209,784
117,246

208,801
115,388

183,686
105,968

14.2
10.6

Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

152,014
20,605

152,141
20,242

152,586
20,038

-0.1
1.8

-0.3
1.0

0.5
-2.4

147,180
20,593

148,839
20,198

141,231
19,960

4.2
3.2

Excluding transportation:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders4………………………
Total Inventories…………………..

See footnotes at end of Table 1

4

Survey Description
This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories,
and Orders (M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new
orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory
(at current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-inprocess, and finished goods). The M3 includes approximately 4,300 reporting units. Units may be
divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89
industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 categories have been combined into 65
publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total
operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-to-month
movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey
show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments
estimates at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month.
The data collection is based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.
The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,300 reporting units and
provide an indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would
be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel
of 4,300 companies would yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500
million or more in shipments and a limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective,
the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are normally provided with
sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many sources. The use of
company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is one source of
nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-to-month movement of
all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report.
Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any
revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication.
Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.
2012 Release Dates for the M3 Survey
Survey month

Advance Report
(8:30 a.m. release time)

Full Report
(10:00 a.m. release time)

October 2011
November 2011
December 2011
January 2012
February 2012
March 2012
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August 2012
September 2012
October 2012

November 23, 2011
December 23, 2011
January 26, 2012
February 28, 2012
March 28, 2012
April 25, 2012
May 24, 2012
June 27, 2012
July 26, 2012
August 24, 2012
September 27, 2012
October 25, 2012
November 27, 2012

December 5, 2011
January 4, 2012
February 3, 2012
March 5, 2012
April 3, 2012
May 2, 2012
June 4, 2012
July 3, 2012
August 2, 2012
August 31, 2012
October 4, 2012
November 2, 2012
December 5, 2012

November 2012

December 24, 2012

Not available at this time