Turkeys Raised - Release

Turkeys Raised
ISSN: 1949-1972

Released September 23, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Turkeys Raised Up 2 Percent from 2010
Turkeys raised in the United States during 2011 is 248 million, up 2 percent from the number raised during 2010.
A combination of six States account for nearly two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2011. The
largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 46.5 million turkeys, which is down 1 percent from the previous year.
North Carolina remains unchanged from last year, producing 30.0 million turkeys. Arkansas also produced 30.0 million
turkeys, which is 7 percent higher than the previous year. Missouri remained unchanged from last year, producing 18.0
million turkeys. Virginia increased the number of turkeys raised compared to the previous year by 3 percent at 17.5
million. Indiana remained unchanged from a year ago at 16.0 million turkeys.

Number of Turkeys Raised – United States
Million head
280

270

260

250

240
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Number of Turkeys Raised – States and United States: 2010 and 2011
Number raised 1
State

2010

2011

2011 as
percent
of 2010

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(percent)

Arkansas ...........................................................................
California ..........................................................................
Indiana ..............................................................................
Minnesota .........................................................................
Missouri ............................................................................
North Carolina ...................................................................
Ohio ..................................................................................
Pennsylvania ....................................................................
South Carolina ..................................................................
South Dakota ....................................................................

28,000
15,200
16,000
47,000
18,000
30,000
4,600
7,400
11,900
4,600

30,000
15,000
16,000
46,500
18,000
30,000
5,000
7,900
11,500
4,300

107
99
100
99
100
100
109
107
97
93

Utah ..................................................................................
Virginia ..............................................................................
West Virginia .....................................................................

4,600
17,000
3,100

4,300
17,500
3,200

93
103
103

Other States 2 ...................................................................

36,788

38,700

105

United States ....................................................................

244,188

247,900

102

1

Excludes young turkeys lost.
2
Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: A random sample of approximately 1,000 United States turkey producers was surveyed to provide
data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all turkey producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be
included in the survey. Large operations were sampled more heavily than small operations. The data collected were
received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews.
Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and
breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those
destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September
Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published
in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications
for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey
or poultry associations.
Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April.
Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the
five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

2

Turkeys Raised (September 2011)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Reliability: Since all operations raising turkeys are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling
variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in
reporting, recording, and processing of the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are
minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data
for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error” for number of turkeys
raised is shown in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past performance
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for number of
turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not
be above or below the current estimate of 248 million turkeys by more than 1.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the
difference will not exceed 3.5 percent.

Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates
[Based on data for the past ten years]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Number raised .................................

1.9

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

3.5

4,190

356

8,540

Years
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)
5

5

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .................................................................. (202) 720-4447
Cody Brokmeyer – Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised .............................................. (202) 690-3237
David Colwell – Cold Storage .................................................................................................................. (202) 720-8784
Kim Linonis – Layers, Eggs ..................................................................................................................... (202) 690-8632
Miste Salmon – Broiler Hatchery, Catfish Processing, Catfish Production, Census of Aquaculture,
Chicken Hatchery, Egg Products, Honey, Mink, Trout Production ............................... (202) 720-0585

Turkeys Raised (September 2011)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

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