Crop Production - Publication

Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737

Released March 9, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Up 1 Percent from February
The United States all orange forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 9.00 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous
forecast and up 2 percent from the 2010-2011 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 147 million boxes
(6.62 million tons), is up 1 percent from the February forecast and up 5 percent from last season’s final utilization. Early,
midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 74.0 million boxes (3.33 million tons), up 1 percent from the
February forecast and up 5 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 73.0 million boxes
(3.29 million tons), is unchanged from the February forecast but up 4 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. Sizes for Valencia
oranges in Florida are expected to be about average.
The California Valencia orange forecast is 14.0 million boxes (560,000 tons), up 4 percent from the previous forecast.
This brings California’s all orange forecast to 58.0 million boxes (2.32 million tons), up 1 percent from the January 1
forecast. Objective survey measurements taken during January and February indicated that fruit set per tree was slightly
lower than the previous year, while measured average fruit size was slightly larger than the previous year. The forecast for
Texas is carried forward from January.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 1.64 gallons per box at
42.0 degrees Brix, up 1 percent from the February forecast and up 3 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.59 gallons
per box. The early-midseason portion is 1.56 gallons per box, up 3 percent from last season’s yield of 1.52 gallons per
box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.76 gallons per box, 6 percent higher than last year’s final yield of 1.66 gallons
per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several
seasons.

This report was approved on March 9, 2012.

Acting Secretary of
Agriculture
Michael T. Scuse

2

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Hubert Hamer

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ................................ 4
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted
March 1, 2012 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) ........................................................... 6
Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) ...................................................................... 7
Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) ................................................................ 8
Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) .......................................................................... 9
Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) .................................................................... 10
Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) ........................................................................ 11
Percent of Normal Precipitation ............................................................................................................................................ 12
Departure from Normal Temperature ................................................................................................................................... 12
February Weather Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 13
February Agricultural Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 13
Crop Comments .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2010 and 2011
Use and State

Yield per acre 1

Area harvested

Production 1

2010

2011

2010

2011

2010

2011

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(tons)

(tons)

(1,000 tons)

(1,000 tons)

For sugar
Florida .........................................................
Hawaii 2 .......................................................
Louisiana 2 ..................................................
Texas 2 ........................................................

374.0
15.5
390.0
45.8

382.0
15.5
385.0
47.0

32.7
77.1
27.8
30.5

37.1
82.0
28.0
33.5

12,230
1,195
10,842
1,396

14,172
1,271
10,780
1,575

United States ..............................................

825.3

829.5

31.1

33.5

25,663

27,798

For seed
Florida .........................................................
Hawaii 2 .......................................................
Louisiana 2 ..................................................
Texas 2 ........................................................

18.0
1.9
30.0
2.3

16.0
1.5
25.0
2.0

41.2
26.3
27.8
31.0

43.3
30.0
28.0
35.5

742
50
834
71

693
45
700
71

United States ..............................................

52.2

44.5

32.5

33.9

1,697

1,509

For sugar and seed
Florida .........................................................
Hawaii 2 .......................................................
Louisiana 2 ..................................................
Texas 2 ........................................................

392.0
17.4
420.0
48.1

398.0
17.0
410.0
49.0

33.1
71.6
27.8
30.5

37.3
77.4
28.0
33.6

12,972
1,245
11,676
1,467

14,865
1,316
11,480
1,646

United States ..............................................

877.5

874.0

31.2

33.5

27,360

29,307

1

Net tons.
2
Estimates are carried forward from the Crop Production 2011 Summary released January 2012.

4

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted
March 1, 2012
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]
Crop and State

Utilized production boxes

1

Utilized production ton equivalent

2010-2011

2011-2012

2010-2011

2011-2012

(1,000 boxes)

(1,000 boxes)

(1,000 tons)

(1,000 tons)

Oranges
Early, mid, and Navel 2
California 3 ........................................
Florida ..............................................
Texas 3 .............................................

48,000
70,300
1,700

44,000
74,000
1,292

1,920
3,164
72

1,760
3,330
55

United States ....................................

120,000

119,292

5,156

5,145

Valencia
California ..........................................
Florida ..............................................
Texas 3 .............................................

13,500
70,000
249

14,000
73,000
334

540
3,150
11

560
3,285
14

United States ....................................

83,749

87,334

3,701

3,859

California ..........................................
Florida ..............................................
Texas 3 .............................................

61,500
140,300
1,949

58,000
147,000
1,626

2,460
6,314
83

2,320
6,615
69

United States ....................................

203,749

206,626

8,857

9,004

Grapefruit
White
Florida ..............................................

5,850

5,200

249

221

Colored
Florida ..............................................

13,900

13,500

591

574

California 3 ........................................
Florida ..............................................
Texas 3 .............................................

4,100
19,750
6,300

3,300
18,700
4,977

164
840
252

132
795
199

United States ....................................

30,150

26,977

1,256

1,126

Tangerines and mandarins
Arizona 3 4 .............................................
California 3 4 ..........................................
Florida ..................................................

300
9,900
4,650

200
10,300
4,300

12
396
221

8
412
204

United States ........................................

14,850

14,800

629

624

Lemons 3
Arizona .................................................
California ..............................................

2,500
21,000

700
19,500

100
840

28
780

United States ........................................

23,500

20,200

940

808

Tangelos
Florida ..................................................

1,150

1,150

52

52

All

All

1

Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in
Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.
2
Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines
in Texas and Temples in Florida.
3
Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
4
Includes tangelos and tangors.

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Area planted

Area harvested

2011

2012

2011

2012

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

Grains and hay
Barley .................................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ....................................................................
Corn for silage ....................................................................
Hay, all ................................................................................
Alfalfa ..............................................................................
All other ...........................................................................
Oats ....................................................................................
Proso millet .........................................................................
Rice ....................................................................................
Rye .....................................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 .............................................................
Sorghum for silage ..............................................................
Wheat, all ............................................................................
Winter .............................................................................
Durum .............................................................................
Other spring ....................................................................

2,559
91,921
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2,496
370
2,689
1,266
5,481
(NA)
54,409
40,646
1,369
12,394

Oilseeds
Canola ................................................................................
Cottonseed .........................................................................
Flaxseed .............................................................................
Mustard seed ......................................................................
Peanuts ..............................................................................
Rapeseed ...........................................................................
Safflower .............................................................................
Soybeans for beans ............................................................
Sunflower ............................................................................

1,071.5
(X)
178
23.2
1,140.6
1.5
130.7
74,976
1,543.0

1,043.0
(X)
173
21.8
1,097.6
1.3
127.3
73,636
1,457.8

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all ...........................................................................
Upland ............................................................................
American Pima ................................................................
Sugarbeets .........................................................................
Sugarcane ..........................................................................
Tobacco ..............................................................................

14,732.4
14,426.0
306.4
1,232.8
(NA)
(NA)

9,747.9
9,444.0
303.9
1,213.1
874.0
324.8

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Austrian winter peas ...........................................................
Dry edible beans .................................................................
Dry edible peas ...................................................................
Lentils .................................................................................
Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

18.0
1,205.9
362.0
428.0
(NA)

12.3
1,155.9
342.8
411.0
(NA)

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................
Hops ...................................................................................
Peppermint oil .....................................................................
Potatoes, all ........................................................................
Spring .............................................................................
Summer ..........................................................................
Fall ..................................................................................
Spearmint oil .......................................................................
Sweet potatoes ...................................................................
Taro (Hawaii) 2 ....................................................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,098.9
93.3
48.2
957.4
(NA)
134.2
(NA)

6.3
29.8
74.0
1,076.7
91.5
46.0
939.2
17.3
130.3
0.5

41,947

2,239
83,981
5,928
55,633
19,213
36,420
939
338
2,618
242
3,929
224
45,705
32,314
1,312
12,079

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.

6

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Yield per acre
2011

Production
2012

2011

2012

(1,000)

(1,000)

Grains and hay
Barley ................................................................................... bushels
Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels
Corn for silage ............................................................................ tons
Hay, all ....................................................................................... tons
Alfalfa ..................................................................................... tons
All other .................................................................................. tons
Oats ...................................................................................... bushels
Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels
Rice 1 ........................................................................................... cwt
Rye ....................................................................................... bushels
Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels
Sorghum for silage ...................................................................... tons
Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels
Winter ............................................................................... bushels
Durum ............................................................................... bushels
Other spring ...................................................................... bushels

69.6
147.2
18.4
2.36
3.40
1.81
57.1
27.1
7,067
26.1
54.6
10.3
43.7
46.2
38.5
37.7

155,780
12,358,412
108,926
131,144
65,332
65,812
53,649
9,149
185,009
6,326
214,443
2,298
1,999,347
1,493,677
50,482
455,188

Oilseeds
Canola ................................................................................... pounds
Cottonseed ................................................................................. tons
Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels
Mustard seed ......................................................................... pounds
Peanuts ................................................................................. pounds
Rapeseed .............................................................................. pounds
Safflower ............................................................................... pounds
Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels
Sunflower .............................................................................. pounds

1,475
(X)
16.1
718
3,313
2,177
1,333
41.5
1,398

1,538,010
5,267.0
2,791
15,644
3,636,320
2,830
169,671
3,056,032
2,038,275

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 1 ............................................................................... bales
Upland 1 ................................................................................ bales
American Pima 1 ................................................................... bales
Sugarbeets ................................................................................. tons
Sugarcane .................................................................................. tons
Tobacco ................................................................................. pounds

772
754
1,336
23.7
33.5
1,850

15,673.7
14,828.0
845.7
28,789
29,307
601,029

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Austrian winter peas 1 .................................................................. cwt
Dry edible beans 1 ....................................................................... cwt
Dry edible peas 1 ......................................................................... cwt
Lentils 1 ........................................................................................ cwt
Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt

1,463
1,716
1,641
1,151
(NA)

180
19,833
5,625
4,732
509

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................... pounds
Hops ...................................................................................... pounds
Peppermint oil ........................................................................ pounds
Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt
Spring ...................................................................................... cwt
Summer ................................................................................... cwt
Fall .......................................................................................... cwt
Spearmint oil ......................................................................... pounds
Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt
Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................... pounds

1,320
2,175
89
397
279
282
414
132
208
(NA)

8,300
64,781.6
6,570
427,406
25,573
12,960
388,873
2,286
27,041
4,100

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Yield in pounds.

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

7

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Area planted

Area harvested

2011

2012

2011

2012

(hectares)

(hectares)

(hectares)

(hectares)

Grains and hay
Barley .................................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ....................................................................
Corn for silage ....................................................................
Hay, all 2 .............................................................................
Alfalfa ..............................................................................
All other ...........................................................................
Oats ....................................................................................
Proso millet .........................................................................
Rice ....................................................................................
Rye .....................................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 .............................................................
Sorghum for silage ..............................................................
Wheat, all 2 .........................................................................
Winter .............................................................................
Durum .............................................................................
Other spring ....................................................................

1,035,600
37,199,510
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,010,110
149,740
1,088,210
512,340
2,218,110
(NA)
22,018,780
16,449,030
554,020
5,015,730

Oilseeds
Canola ................................................................................
Cottonseed .........................................................................
Flaxseed .............................................................................
Mustard seed ......................................................................
Peanuts ..............................................................................
Rapeseed ...........................................................................
Safflower .............................................................................
Soybeans for beans ............................................................
Sunflower ............................................................................

433,630
(X)
72,030
9,390
461,590
610
52,890
30,342,040
624,440

422,090
(X)
70,010
8,820
444,190
530
51,520
29,799,750
589,960

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 .........................................................................
Upland ............................................................................
American Pima ................................................................
Sugarbeets .........................................................................
Sugarcane ..........................................................................
Tobacco ..............................................................................

5,962,050
5,838,060
124,000
498,900
(NA)
(NA)

3,944,880
3,821,890
122,990
490,930
353,700
131,460

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Austrian winter peas ...........................................................
Dry edible beans .................................................................
Dry edible peas ...................................................................
Lentils .................................................................................
Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

7,280
488,020
146,500
173,210
(NA)

4,980
467,780
138,730
166,330
(NA)

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................
Hops ...................................................................................
Peppermint oil .....................................................................
Potatoes, all 2 ......................................................................
Spring .............................................................................
Summer ..........................................................................
Fall ..................................................................................
Spearmint oil .......................................................................
Sweet potatoes ...................................................................
Taro (Hawaii) 3 ....................................................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
444,710
37,760
19,510
387,450
(NA)
54,310
(NA)

2,550
12,050
29,950
435,730
37,030
18,620
380,080
7,000
52,730
200

16,975,530

906,100
33,986,270
2,399,000
22,514,120
7,775,310
14,738,810
380,000
136,790
1,059,480
97,930
1,590,030
90,650
18,496,360
13,077,150
530,950
4,888,250

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Total may not add due to rounding.
3
Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.

8

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Yield per hectare

Production

2011

2012

2011

2012

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

Grains and hay
Barley .................................................................................
Corn for grain ......................................................................
Corn for silage ....................................................................
Hay, all 1 .............................................................................
Alfalfa .............................................................................
All other ..........................................................................
Oats ....................................................................................
Proso millet .........................................................................
Rice ....................................................................................
Rye .....................................................................................
Sorghum for grain ...............................................................
Sorghum for silage ..............................................................
Wheat, all 1 .........................................................................
Winter .............................................................................
Durum .............................................................................
Other spring ....................................................................

3.74
9.24
41.19
5.28
7.62
4.05
2.05
1.52
7.92
1.64
3.43
23.00
2.94
3.11
2.59
2.53

3,391,710
313,918,120
98,816,000
118,971,840
59,268,190
59,703,640
778,710
207,500
8,391,870
160,690
5,447,100
2,084,710
54,413,310
40,651,230
1,373,890
12,388,190

Oilseeds
Canola ................................................................................
Cottonseed .........................................................................
Flaxseed .............................................................................
Mustard seed ......................................................................
Peanuts ..............................................................................
Rapeseed ...........................................................................
Safflower ............................................................................
Soybeans for beans ............................................................
Sunflower ...........................................................................

1.65
(X)
1.01
0.80
3.71
2.44
1.49
2.79
1.57

697,630
4,778,140
70,890
7,100
1,649,410
1,280
76,960
83,171,560
924,550

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 1 .........................................................................
Upland ............................................................................
American Pima ...............................................................
Sugarbeets .........................................................................
Sugarcane ..........................................................................
Tobacco ..............................................................................

0.87
0.84
1.50
53.20
75.17
2.07

3,412,550
3,228,420
184,130
26,116,940
26,586,860
272,620

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Austrian winter peas ...........................................................
Dry edible beans .................................................................
Dry edible peas ...................................................................
Lentils .................................................................................
Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

1.64
1.92
1.84
1.29
(NA)

8,160
899,610
255,150
214,640
23,090

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................
Hops ...................................................................................
Peppermint oil .....................................................................
Potatoes, all 1 .....................................................................
Spring .............................................................................
Summer ..........................................................................
Fall .................................................................................
Spearmint oil ......................................................................
Sweet potatoes ...................................................................
Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................

1.48
2.44
0.10
44.49
31.33
31.58
46.41
0.15
23.26
(NA)

3,760
29,380
2,980
19,386,810
1,159,970
587,860
17,638,980
1,040
1,226,560
1,860

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Production may not add due to rounding.

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

9

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Citrus 1
Grapefruit ..............................................................tons
Lemons .................................................................tons
Oranges ................................................................tons
Tangelos (Florida) .................................................tons
Tangerines and mandarins ....................................tons
Noncitrus
Apples ................................................... 1,000 pounds
Apricots .................................................................tons
Bananas (Hawaii) ............................................. pounds
Grapes ..................................................................tons
Olives (California) .................................................tons
Papayas (Hawaii) ............................................. pounds
Peaches ................................................................tons
Pears ....................................................................tons
Prunes, dried (California) ......................................tons
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ................tons
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ........................... pounds
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..................................tons
Pecans, in-shell ................................................ pounds
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .................................tons
Maple syrup ..................................................... gallons
1

Production
2011

2012

(1,000)

(1,000)
1,256
940
8,857
52
629

1,126
808
9,004
52
624

9,429.9
59.2
7,088.4
65.0
1,129.1
888.3
122.0
13.1

1,950,000
41
251,700
485
2,794

Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012.

10

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Citrus 1
Grapefruit ...................................................................................................
Lemons ......................................................................................................
Oranges ......................................................................................................
Tangelos (Florida) ......................................................................................
Tangerines and mandarins .........................................................................
Noncitrus
Apples ........................................................................................................
Apricots ......................................................................................................
Bananas (Hawaii) .......................................................................................
Grapes .......................................................................................................
Olives (California) .......................................................................................
Papayas (Hawaii) .......................................................................................
Peaches .....................................................................................................
Pears ..........................................................................................................
Prunes, dried (California) ............................................................................
Prunes and plums (excludes California) ......................................................
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ......................................................................
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .......................................................................
Pecans, in-shell ..........................................................................................
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .......................................................................
Maple syrup ................................................................................................
1

Production
2011

2012

(metric tons)

(metric tons)
1,139,420
852,750
8,034,940
47,170
570,620

1,021,490
733,010
8,168,290
47,170
566,080

4,277,330
53,680
6,430,520
58,970
1,024,340
805,850
110,680
11,840

884,510
37,190
114,170
439,980
13,970

Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012.

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

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Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

February Weather Summary
Most areas east of the Rockies completed a fourth consecutive month with above-normal temperatures, capping a winter
with only fleeting periods of cold weather. February warmth was especially prevalent across the eastern half of the
Nation, where pastures, winter grains, and fruit crops exhibited earlier-than-normal spring development.
Meanwhile, portions of the West moved closer to a failed winter wet season, with California and the Great Basin
expecting significantly below-average spring and summer runoff. However, much of the West - excluding Arizona and
New Mexico - had a temporary buffer against developing drought in the form of abundant reservoir storage.
Farther east, the Plains escaped the winter without a severe cold wave, although moisture shortages and a lack of a
protective snow cover caused some problems for winter wheat. In particular, the southern High Plains suffered through
several February dust storms, a by-product of high winds and soil moisture depleted by the historic drought of 2011.
Elsewhere, late-February storminess eased dry conditions in the upper Midwest and provided snow across the Nation’s
Northern Tier, while damaging thunderstorms and heavy rains swept across parts of the South, East, and lower Midwest.
However, most of the late-month rain bypassed Florida’s parched Peninsula.
February Agricultural Summary
While temperatures across the western half of the United States were near-normal, most areas east of the Great Plains
were above average. Most notably, monthly averages in portions of the Great Lakes region and the Northeast were
8 degrees or more above normal. February was a relatively dry month for much of the Nation. Total precipitation
accumulations were less than 50 percent of normal throughout the areas of the Great Basin and Southwest, leaving many
producers concerned about the lack of available moisture going into the upcoming crop season. Conversely, winter storm
systems delivered moisture totaling 200 percent or more above normal to much of the Great Plains and lower Delta,
improving snow cover for winter wheat and improving soil moisture levels following an unusually dry 2011 crop year.
Weather conditions provided producers in many States plenty of time to prepare farm equipment and fields for spring
planting. Mid-month, cultivation was underway in corn and sorghum fields throughout Texas, while cotton growers were
pre-watering fields and laying rows. In California, rice fields were drained, and fertilizers and herbicides were applied
before cotton and corn planting began. A late-month storm system dumped beneficial rainfall on much of drought-stressed
northern Florida. The moisture improved planting conditions, but limited fieldwork activities. Sugarcane producers in
Florida and Texas continued to harvest their 2011 crop throughout the month.
An early-month storm system improved snow cover for the winter wheat crop in portions of the Great Plains and Rocky
Mountains; however, warmer than normal temperatures throughout the month left most areas without measurable snow
accumulations. Windy, dry conditions persisted throughout February in the High Plains and Edwards Plateau regions of
Texas, depleting soil moisture levels and causing blowing dust storms that negatively impacted the developing wheat
crop. Irrigated and some rain-fed small grain fields in California showed exceptional development throughout the month,
with limited heading evident in winter wheat fields toward month’s end. Conversely, some oat fields in the State were
disked under due to poor establishment and growth. Elsewhere, above average precipitation in major wheat-producing
regions benefitted soil moisture levels as the crop began to emerge from dormancy.
Throughout the month, a variety of winter vegetables were harvested and shipped from the southern States, while spring
vegetable fields were planted. As February progressed, the harvest of early and mid-season oranges tapered off, as the
grapefruit, tangerine, temple, and Valencia orange harvest gained speed. While blooming was beginning on most stone
fruit trees in California early in the month, early bloom was reported in almond, apricot, and plum trees mid-month.
Producers moved bees into orchards to aid in pollination and continued a variety of maintenance activities including
irrigation, planting, pruning, and applying herbicides.

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

13

Crop Comments
Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2011 is estimated at 29.3 million tons, of which 27.8 million
tons will be utilized for sugar and 1.51 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is up 2 percent from the
previous forecast and up 7 percent from 2010. Producers expect to harvest 874,000 acres for sugar and seed for the 2011
crop year, up 1,000 acres from February but down 3,500 acres from the previous year. Expected yield is forecast at
33.5 tons per acre, up 0.7 tons from the previous forecast and up 2.3 tons from 2010.
Production in Florida is estimated at 14.9 million tons, up 5 percent from February and up 15 percent from last year.
Rainfall received in early November delayed harvest which remained active through February. Minor freeze damage was
reported during the first week of January. By the end of February, harvest was virtually complete. Estimates for Hawaii,
Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January.
Grapefruit: The 2011-2012 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.13 million tons, unchanged from the previous
forecast but down 10 percent from last season’s final utilization. For both white and colored grapefruit in Florida, size is
projected to be below average with above average droppage. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are
carried forward from the January 1 forecast.
Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.15 million boxes (52,000 tons), up 5 percent from the previous forecast but
unchanged from last season’s final utilization. Florida’s row count survey showed that 97 percent of the rows were
harvested.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 624,000 tons, unchanged from
the previous forecast but down 1 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. In Florida, the row count survey showed that harvest
was finished for the early tangerine varieties, while nearly 80 percent of Honey tangerines were harvested. Arizona and
California estimates are carried forward from the January 1 forecast.
Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, weather stations reported temperatures ranging from highs in the 80s to lows
in the 40s. Moderate rainfall helped improve soil moisture conditions throughout the citrus region. However, drought
conditions continued throughout the citrus growing region. Harvesting of early oranges (Navels and Hamlins) has peaked
and is in decline. White and colored grapefruit, Valencia oranges, and Honey tangerine harvests continued. A few
tangelos and Sunburst tangerines were still being harvested, but were mostly finished. Production practices included
general grove work, fertilizer application, and irrigation as needed.
California citrus: Harvest and export of Navel oranges, Murcott tangerines, and Mineola tangelos continued during
February. The export of pummelos, grapefruit, Cara Caras, and lemons was ongoing.
California noncitrus fruits and nuts: During February, peach, prune, and other stone fruit orchards were irrigated,
pruned, and planted. After a very dry January, February rains were a relief to growers. However, lack of water remained a
concern as growers began planning for the coming year. Weed control and dormant sprays were applied. Bloom sprays
were applied in stone fruit orchards as early varieties started blooming. Grape and kiwi vineyards were pruned and
sprayed. Kiwifruit, persimmons, and Asian pears were exported. Olives were dormant. Irrigation, planting, and pruning
continued in some walnut and pistachio orchards. Bees were moved into almond orchards as the bloom began. Some
operations applied bloom sprays to almonds in February. Due to lack of precipitation, many orchards have been irrigated
at least once.

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Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which
accounts for nearly 73 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the
season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative
data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the
previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer
surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys
in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were
also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural
Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month
throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including
information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization
and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square
Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production
forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage
deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean
Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing
recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 2.0 percent. However, if you exclude the
three abnormal production seasons (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is
1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below
the final estimates by more than 2.0 percent, or 1.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.4 percent, or 3.3 percent when excluding abnormal
seasons.
Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 181,000 tons
(184,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 17,000 tons to 503,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The
March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times (below 9 times and above
8 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to
understate or overstate final production.

Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

15

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch ....................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section ...................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Suzanne Avilla – Peanuts, Rice........................................................................................................ (202) 720-7688
Bryan Durham – Oats, Rye, Wheat .................................................................................................. (202) 720-8068
Steve Maliszewski – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum ................................................................ (202) 720-5944
Anthony Prillaman – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet ......................................................................... (202) 720-9526
Julie Schmidt – Crop Weather, Barley, Hay .................................................................................... (202) 720-7621
Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................................................................. (202) 720-7369
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section ............................................ (202) 720-2127
Debbie Flippin – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries...................................... (202) 720-2157
Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ............................................... (202) 720-4288
Chris Hawthorn – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits ......................................... (202) 720-5412
Dave Losh – Hops ............................................................................................................................ (360) 709-2400
Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .................................................. (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ............................................... (202) 720-4285
Erika White – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ....................................................... (202) 720-4215

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Crop Production (March 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Access to NASS Reports
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For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540,
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