Supporting Statement Part B

Supporting Statement - Part B

U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Census Bureau

Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders Survey

(Form MA-3000)

OMB Control No. 0607-0561

B. Collection of Information Employing Statistical Methods

1. Description of Universe

The Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders Survey’s universe is defined as consisting of all domestic companies with one or more manufacturing establishments classified in the Major Manufacturing Activities List MA-3000(I) in Appendix C. Companies with no establishments classified in these categories are excluded from the universe. Companies with fewer than five employees are not included in the target population.

2. Sampling Methodology and Estimating Procedure

The Census Bureau’s Business Register is the source of the Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders Survey’s sample frame. The sample frame is comprised of records that represent company break outs by M3 industry category. A company with activity in multiple categories has multiple records. Each company by M3 category record represents the combined activity of all establishments classified within the category. Each company by M3 category record is assigned a probability of selection that is commensurate with its relative importance (based on value of shipments) within the M3 category and the relative importance of the M3 category. Consequently, a company with activity in multiple M3 categories is assigned multiple probabilities. A company is assigned a final probability equal to the maximum of its individual category probabilities. The sample is comprised of approximately 6,000 companies.

For each M3 industry category, unfilled orders benchmark estimates are derived by summing weighted data, where the weight for a given company is the inverse of the probability of being included in the sample. For six industry categories, we split the estimates into defense and nondefense subcategories. A given unfilled orders estimate is then adjusted by the ratio of two shipments estimates. The numerator of the ratio is the ASM or Economic Census shipments estimate, and the denominator is the corresponding shipments estimate from the Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders Survey. Each category is adjusted separately. When a large company reports an unusual ratio of unfilled orders to shipments for an industry category and strongly influences the overall ratio for the industry category, the company's data are excluded from the overall ratio, but its unfilled orders data are included in the final unfilled orders estimate for the industry category.

3. Efforts to Maximize Response

Based on previous years, we expect a check-in rate of at least 80 percent and a weighted response rate of 70 percent. Dedicated efforts are made to maximize response. Companies that do not respond to the survey receive a follow-up letter. A duplicate form is sent out with the follow-up letter. Subsequently, the Census Bureau conducts telephone follow-up during the third month following mail-out of the original report form to obtain the data by telephone and/or urge the respondent to return the form with the data, or to document why the form was not completed. Report forms are reviewed and evaluated for any comments and suggestions made by the respondents to improve the survey results.

4. Tests of Procedures or Methods

Periodically, the Census Bureau staff interviews survey respondents to assess our data requests and to keep abreast of the current record keeping practices and changes in technology.

5. Contacts for Statistical Aspects and Data Collection

Person responsible for statistical methodology:

Amy M. Newman Smith, Assistant Division Chief

Research and Methodology

Manufacturing and Construction Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(301) 763-6595

Person responsible for data collection:

Mary Catherine Potter, Assistant Division Chief

Manufacturing and Innovation Indicators

Manufacturing and Construction Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(301) 763-4207

List of Appendices

A. Form MA-3000

B. Instructions MA-3000(INST)

C. Major Manufacturing Activities List MA-3000(I)

D. Initial Mail-out Letter

E. Follow-up Letter

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