The 2013 Supporting Statement for OMB 0596-0229
McKenzie River Survey
Flathead Wild and Scenic River Visitor Survey
USDA Forest Service, Flathead and Willamette National Forests
National Park Service, Glacier National Park
B. Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods
1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection had been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.
We set a target of approximately 400 completed surveys for the McKenzie River, and 450 completed surveys for the Flathead River, (combined total of Flathead NF and Glacier NP) which will provide for comparisons among managerially relevant subgroups of visitors, such as weekday vs. weekend visitors, private boaters and clients of commercial river guides, or whitewater boaters vs. anglers. This size sample also fulfills the requirements of exploratory factor analysis, which requires 10-20 respondents per item in sets of items that will be collapsed into latent factors (Hair et al. 2010, p. 102). We plan to use factor analysis to generate indices for overall experience quality.
Sampling for this collection will be focused on, and limited to, adult (age 16 years and older) recreational visitors to the Flathead River in Montana and Upper McKenzie River in Oregon, during the primary recreational use seasons. The sampling schedule (stratified random sample) will ensure that the collection obtains a random sample of adult visitors. As is nearly always the case in this type of information collection, precise information about the number of people in the potential respondent universe is not available. There are no data about the number of private boaters, anglers, and trail users. However, records of outfitter-guide use and campground use are available. These numbers, and the results of the 1996 McKenzie River study, suggest that the proposed sampling scheme will generate the target sample size.
Sampling intensity was based on an estimate of the likely number of surveys obtainable. In the 1996 McKenzie River study, on average, 7 surveys per site per day were obtained (with an 81% response rate). We estimate that the same number of surveys, on average, will be obtained in 2013. (Although use has increased considerably, compliance with surveys has declined, so we conservatively estimate that we can obtain 7 surveys per site per day). Although visitation varies among Flathead River sites, we estimate that we can obtain an average of 7 surveys per site per day. In our calculations we used an estimate of 70% compliance, which is on the low end of what was obtained during a 2011 survey at eight developed and dispersed recreation sites at Lake Roosevelt in Washington.
2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including:
Statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection,
The visitor surveys will take place during the primary and secondary use seasons. The specific dates (April 15 to September 30) were chosen because those were the dates of the 1996 McKenzie river study, and replicating the methods of the 1996 study will permit confident conclusions about changes in visitor experiences and opinions. The Flathead River study will be conducted from May 1 through September 30.
No sample frame is available before commencement of information collection. However, the sampling approach will ensure that the collection obtains a random, representative sample of visitors.
For the McKenzie survey, three strata were generated by dividing the study season into thirds (April 15 to June 9; June 10 to August 5, and August 6 to September 30). (This was done because different types of visitors use the McKenzie River during different times of year, and the conditions they encounter – such as weather and crowding – also vary across time.) Within each stratum, for each of the 4 sites, a random sample of four dates was selected using a random number generator. Surveyors will be present during six hours on each sample day. All adult visitors present at the study site during the sample periods will be invited to participate in the study by completing a questionnaire on site.
For the Flathead survey, Forest Service and National Park Service staff, volunteers, and contractors will contact visitors at 11 recreation access points on the Flathead River. A random sample of dates will be chosen for each study location, and staff will be on site between six and eight hours on sampled days. All visitor groups completing their recreational activities will be approached, and adults (age 16 years and older) will be asked to participate in the survey by completing a questionnaire on site. The estimate of 7 completed surveys per site per day will generate a final sample of 446 completed surveys for the Flathead River, which is adequately close to our target of 450 for both the Flathead NF and Glacier NP.
In both studies, the invitation to participate will follow approved protocols of Institutional Review Boards, assuring visitors that participation is voluntary. No identifying information will be collected at any time, so participation will be fully anonymous. See Survey Methodology for specific sites and dates.
Estimation procedure
No estimation procedures are needed beyond the stratified random sampling of selected date-location combinations, as described above.
Degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification
Given the anticipated response rate, we expect to achieve +/- 5% accuracy with 95% confidence.
Unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures
None
Any use of periodic (less frequent than annual) data collection cycles to reduce burden.
This survey is designed to be administered once for each respondent. If respondents make repeat visits, they will not be asked to complete the survey a second time. This will be ensured by asking a verbal screening question, “have you completed a questionnaire along the McKenzie [Flathead] River previously this year?”
3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling, a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.
Accepted survey procedures for wording questions and approaching visitors, as outlined by Dillman (2009), Vaske (2008), and others, will be used. Using an on-site survey, rather than a mail return questionnaire, will greatly increase the response rate. Contacting people at the end of their visits will minimize intrusions upon their experiences. Clear, concise language, and a clear explanation of the purpose of the information collection, will help ensure a high degree of accuracy in obtaining valid responses.
Because non-response bias is as important as sample size or high response rate, non-response bias checks will also be conducted. We will record information about all parties approached (see Survey Log), so that we can address potential non-response bias. At each site, on each sample day, surveyors will record the number of people who agree and decline to complete surveys. They will also document information about potential participants’ group size and composition, activities, type (guided vs. private), and activity. This information will be statistically contrasted between respondents and non-respondents, which will reveal the presence of any systematic non-response patterns (such as groups with children being less likely to complete the survey). Additionally, any verbal reasons for not completing the survey (e.g., lack of time) will be recorded.
4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken. Testing is encouraged as an effective means of refining collections of information to minimize burden and improve utility. Tests must be approved if they call for answers to identical questions from 10 or more respondents. A proposed test or set of tests may be submitted for approval separately or in combination with the main collection of information.
Because this information collection uses the same procedures as a previous study on the McKenzie River, testing of methods is not needed. However, new survey questions were pilot tested on university or agency staff with fewer than 10 knowledgeable individuals.
5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), grantee(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.
James Absher, Ph.D, Research Social Scientist, USDA Forest Service, Troy E. Hall, Ph.D., Professor at the University of Idaho, and Dr. Kreg Lindberg, Ph.D., Associate Professor at Oregon State University headed the preparation and review of this submission package and attached instrument. All three are extensively trained in statistical and methodological procedures, have substantial experience in the fields of leisure and recreation research, and have considerable experience in survey design and implementation. Dr. Absher holds a degree in statistics (Stanford, 1970) and Dr. Hall has taught undergraduate and graduate courses on research methods. Dr. Lindberg is an internationally known expert in environmental economics and teaches undergraduate and graduate courses on statistics and research methods. Both Drs. Absher and Hall have individually conducted research nearly identical to the present information collection for the US Forest Service, National Park Service, and Bureau of Land Management.
Data collection and analysis will be overseen by Dr. Hall and Dr. Lindberg, with the assistance of a graduate research assistant with statistical expertise. The analysis will be very straightforward, consisting of descriptive statistics (means, standard deviations), data reduction (exploratory factor analysis), and comparisons among managerially relevant subgroups (t-tests and ANOVA). Ordinary Least Squares Regressions may be used to investigate how different conditions experienced affect visitor experience quality.
James Absher, Ph.D.
Research Social Scientist
Pacific Southwest Research Station
USDA Forest Service
4955 Canyon Crest Drive
Riverside, CA 92507
(951) 680-1559; [email protected]
Dr. Troy Hall, Professor
Department of Conservation Social Sciences
University of Idaho
Moscow, ID, 83844
208 885-7911
Dr. Kreg Lindberg
230 Cascades Hall
Oregon State University—Cascades Campus
2600 NW College Way
Bend, OR 97701
541 322-3126
Appendix 1: Literature cited in the responses above
Dillman, D. A., Smyth, J. D., & Christian, L. M. (2009). Internet, mail, and mixed-mode surveys: The tailored design method (3rd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley & Sons.
Hair, J.F. Jr., W.C. Black, B.J. Babin, R.E. Anderson. 2010. Multivariate Data Analysis, 7th ed. Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, NJ
Hall, T. E., & Shelby, B. (1996). McKenzie River boater study. Report prepared for McKenzie Ranger District, Willamette National Forest and Eugene District BLM. Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University.
Manning, R. (2007). Parks and carrying capacity: Commons without tragedy. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Shelby, B., & Heberlein, T. A. (1986). Carrying capacity in recreation settings. Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University Press.
Vaske, J. J. (2008). Survey research and analysis: Applications in parks, recreation and human dimensions. State College, PA: Venture Publishing.
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