Memo to increase sample

MEMORANDUM TO: Shelly Wilkie Martinez

Office of Statistical and Science Policy

Office of Management and Budget

THROUGH: Lynn Murray

Department Clearance Officer

Department of Justice

FROM: William J. Sabol, Ph.D.

Acting Director

Bureau of Justice Statistics

SUBJECT: Submission of burden hour increase for the 2014 Identity Theft Supplement to the National Crime Victimization Survey (OMB #1121-0317)

This memo concerns an increase of 1,512 hours to the current burden for the 2014 Identity Theft Supplement (ITS) to the National Crime Victimization Survey. The increase in burden results from a boost of the NCVS sample in 11 states from July 2013 to December 2015 to test the feasibility of collecting subnational estimates of victimization.

The 2013 NCVS Sample Boost is being conducted to test assumptions about the collection and production of state level estimates, including those pertaining to necessary sample sizes and reliability, expected response rates, victimization rates, state coverage issues, state level sample design and weighting, hiring and training of field representatives, workload and logistic concerns, and cost. In July 2013, the NCVS sample increased in 11 states—CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, MI, GA, NC, and NJ—to ensure that these states have representative coverage with sample sizes that are sufficient to produce victimization estimates with reasonable reliability and precision. This boost resulted in a 21% increase in the total annual sample, from 201,400 to 240,200 respondents, which corresponds to an increase from 68,905 to 80,450 total sample hours (see Notice of OMB Action; ICR Reference Number 201305-1121-002).

From January 1, 2014 through June 30, 2014, the ITS will be administered at the end of the NCVS core survey to persons 16 or older, including persons in the sample boost. Based on the boost to the total NCVS sample, it is assumed the ITS sample will likewise increase by about 20%, from 78,000 to 93,600 respondents (includes eligible non-respondents).

Assuming that the 2014 ITS experiences similar response rates in core and sample boost areas as prior iterations of the ITS, about 89%, or 83,300 of the 93,600, eligible respondents will be interviewed. Based on prior ITS data it is further assumed that 7% of the 83,300 interviewed respondents will be victims of identity theft and therefore follow the long interview path in the questionnaire. The remaining 93% will not be victims of identity theft and, as such, will follow the short interview path. The short interview path requires about 3 minutes to complete and the long interview path requires approximately 15 minutes. Total expected respondent burden is therefore calculated as:

83,300X (.07) X (.25 hours) + 83,300X (.93) X (.08 hours) = 7,656 total hours. This represents an increase of 1,512 from the 6,144 hours previously requested.

If there are any questions concerning this request, please contact Michael Planty, Victimization Unit Chief, Bureau of Justice Statistics, at (202) 514-1062 or by email at [email protected].