NEW - CAIR - SSB - June 2014

Supporting Statement

CURRENT AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIAL REPORTS (CAIR)

OMB No. 0535-NEW

B. COLLECTION OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection has been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.

These surveys target several populations based on the type of manufactured product. The target populations are US flour millers, cotton linters, alcohol producers, fat and oil renderers, fat and oil processors, and fat and oil warehouse facilities. Estimated population sizes can be found in Supporting Statement A, item 12 and are dependent on the population being surveyed. Frames on each of the populations will be created from external lists provided by industry groups and expanded on by the Operation Profile questionnaires. In addition to obtaining auxiliary data on the surveyed operations, the Operation Profile questionnaires will ask whether the surveyed operation is the headquarters for multiple operations or is a single operation and for the contact information for other operations. Between the external lists and the Operation Profile questionnaires, and given the high costs of entry and production for these operations, the frame coverage should be complete. Approximately 15,000 operations will be profiled for all surveys. Based on Census Bureau sample sizes, we are expecting less than 3,000 of these operations to qualify for the monthly surveys.

These surveys will be censuses of all known operations in each of the target populations. Consequently, no sample design will be used. The expected response rate is 90% for each survey. Previous data collections at the Census Bureau possessed similar response rates. Furthermore, these surveys are mandatory by law. Because of these reasons, the expected response rates should meet OMB standards. The same response rates, and the reasons for those rates, should hold true for the Operation Profile questionnaires. Projected individual survey response counts can be found in Supporting Statement A, item 12.

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including:

• statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection,

• estimation procedure,

• degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification,

• unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures.

The Operation Profile questionnaires will be administered via mail and/or personal interview. Selected operations will be visited by an enumerator to identify the main contact person for future surveys. The identified contact person will complete the screener. Given that this is a census of all known operations, we do not expect unusual problems requiring special sampling procedures. However, since we expect some operations to not respond, manual estimation of the missing records will be performed by NASS statisticians. Furthermore, the Profile data will not be summarized for publication.

After extensive list building efforts using the ReferenceUSA database of businesses, our universe of possible target operations increased from roughly 2,000 to around 15,000.  To ensure that we don’t systematically exclude any of these operations, our Operation Profile approach and data collection instruments were both revised in order to accommodate budget constraints and total respondent burden hours.  First, profiling operations for eligibility will now consist solely of a simple screening process using a streamlined instrument that can both be mailed and personally enumerated.  Using an adaptive design strategy, we decided to only personally enumerate those operations we feel have a higher likelihood of eligibility based on source and criteria of the list building process.  The rest of the population will be mailed an instrument in order to allow them the chance to report while keeping down costs.  In addition, we will no longer attempt to pick up historical data during personal enumeration which will substantially decrease the total burden hours of this profiling phase. 

The actual surveys will be mailed out from and returned to the NASS National Operations Division in St. Louis, MO. Each mailing will contain a cover letter, an instruction sheet and a questionnaire and will capture data for the reference month only. Processors at the National Operations Division will process the mailing, key the data, and edit the keyed data. An electronic data capture tool will be available on the Internet to respondents if they prefer to respond in this fashion. Non-respondents will be contacted by phone interviewers to collect their data for that month. Operations can also submit late reports, which will be collected for the annual publication.

Item-level imputation will be conducted on items that were indicated to be produced by the operation on their Operation Profile, but no data was reported. Missing data for a particular item will be imputed by multiplying the month-to-month change from reporting records to the previous month’s data for the operation with the missing data. For non-respondents, NASS statisticians will identify which items will be imputed using item-level imputation methods described above; consequently, there will be no calculated non-response adjustments.

Operation counts and commodity totals will be calculated at the national and state level. Furthermore, an average 24-hour capacity estimate will be published for flour millers at the national and state levels. No coverage adjustments will be calculated since the frame should have complete coverage. Some manual smoothing of the final estimates based on market trends may be handled by NASS statisticians. No standard error will be calculated since this is a census of all operations.

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

The CAIR surveys will become an integrated part of the Census of Agriculture. Under the authority of the Census of Agriculture Act of 1997 (Public Law 105-113) participation in these surveys will be mandatory.

During the initial phase of this survey program NASS will conduct a profile questionnaire of each potential organization that may qualify for this group of surveys. At that time we will cover the requirements for responding, which has not changed from when the Census Bureau previously conducted these surveys. Our interviewers will also discuss the importance of this information to the many data users. NASS will also provide multiple means by which the respondents can complete the questionnaires. The survey will be available through a password protected website, if they would like to respond online. We will also have a group of NASDA enumerators who can collect the data by either phone or through personal interview if the respondent prefers either of these methods. We will also have a secure fax line set up to receive the data as well. The respondent can also respond by mail or by email if they choose.

During the initial profile phase, respondents will be provided with excerpts of the letters of support NASS has received along with examples of how this data is so vital to so many people.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken.

All operations that could potentially qualify for this group of surveys will be contacted by mail or a NASS representative. The respondent will be asked to complete a short profile questionnaire that will determine if the operation qualifies for any of these surveys. If they qualify for any of the surveys, the interviewer will review the appropriate questionnaire(s) with the respondent to make sure they understand the questions and that the individual understands the importance of these surveys. The interviewer will also familiarize the respondent with the NASS website and how to access this site to respond to the questionnaire via the internet.

Since this is a reinstatement of a group of surveys formerly conducted by the Census Bureau, the majority of the respondents should already be familiar with the procedures and content of the questionnaires. With that in mind, NASS did not feel it was necessary to conduct testing; rather it is more important to point out any changes or additions to the program from when it was previously conducted.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

NASS is conducting the CAIR surveys through its Census and Survey Division; the Census Planning Branch Chief is Chris Messer, (202) 690-8747.

Sample design will be developed by NASS’s Sample Design Section; Branch Chief is Mark Apodaca, (202) 720-2857.

They were reviewed by NASS Summary, Estimation, and Disclosure Methodology Branch, Methodology Division; Branch Chief is Jeff Bailey, (202)720-4008. The data imputation for non-response and data summary will be conducted by Michael Jacobsen (202) 690-8639

Data collection is carried out by NASS Field Offices; Field Operation’s Director is Kevin Barnes (202) 720-8220.

The NASS survey statistician in Headquarters for this survey is Perry Game, (202) 690-8768 in the Census and Survey Division. He is responsible for coordination of sampling, questionnaires, data collection, data processing, and Field Office support.

The NASS Environmental, Economics and Demographics, Branch will be responsible for regional and national summaries and publication; Branch Chief is Troy Joshua, (202) 720-6146.

February 2014

Revised June 2014