Milk Production - Release

Milk Production
ISSN: 1949-1557

Released December 19, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

November Milk Production up 3.5 Percent
Milk production in the 23 major States during November totaled 15.5 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from November
2013. October revised production, at 16.0 billion pounds, was up 3.7 percent from October 2013. The October revision
represented a decrease of 35 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.
Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,806 pounds for November, 41 pounds above November 2013. This
is the highest production per cow for the month of November since the 23 State series began in 2003.
The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.59 million head, 93,000 head more than November
2013, and 3,000 head more than October 2014.

November Milk Production in the United States up 3.4 Percent
Milk production in the United States during November totaled 16.5 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent from November 2013.
Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,782 pounds for November, 42 pounds above November 2013.
The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.28 million head, 82,000 head more than November 2013,
and 4,000 head more than October 2014.

Monthly Milk Production – 23 Selected States
Million pounds

17,000
16,500
16,000
15,500
15,000
2013

2014

14,500
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – United States: 2013-2014
[May not add due to rounding]
Milk Cows 1
Quarter

Milk Per Cow 2

Milk Production 2

2013 3

2014

2013 3

2014

(1,000 Head)

(1,000 Head)

(Pounds)

(Pounds)

January-March ...................
April-June ..........................
July-September ..................
October-December ............

9,224
9,201

Annual ...............................

9,221

9,214
9,253
9,271

2013

(Million Pounds) (Million Pounds)

5,540
5,713
5,518

5,356
5,355

2014

50,545
51,997
49,408
49,268

21,822

Change
From
2013
(Percent)

51,046
52,861
51,156

1.0
1.7
3.5

201,218

1

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3
Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and milk per cow data for March through June. 2013 annual totals include
modeled data.

Milk Cows and Production By Month – 23 Selected States: 2013-2014
Milk cows1
Month

Milk per cow2

Milk production2

2013 3

2014

2013 3

2014

2013

2014

Change
from
2013

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

(percent)

15,985
14,715
16,501
16,105
16,648
15,860
15,762
15,768
14,874
15,449
15,002
15,741

16,186
14,899
16,687
16,332
16,922
16,227
16,388
16,174
15,507
16,013
15,520

January ..............
February ............
March .................
April ...................
May ....................
June ...................
July ....................
August ...............
September .........
October ..............
November ..........
December ..........

8,497
8,498

Annual ...............

8,508

8,512
8,513
8,521
8,542
8,559
8,572
8,583
8,582
8,590
8,589
8,592

8,522
8,522
8,508
8,504
8,499
8,504

1,881
1,732

1,902
1,750
1,958
1,912
1,977
1,893
1,909
1,885
1,805
1,864
1,806

1,850
1,850
1,748
1,817
1,765
1,851
22,145

1.3
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.6
2.3
4.0
2.6
4.3
3.7
3.5

188,410

1

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3
Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and milk per cow data for March through June.

Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month – United States: 2013-2014
Milk cows1
Month

Milk per cow2

Milk production2

2013 3

2014

2013 3

2014

2013

2014

Change
from
2013

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

(percent)

17,109
15,759
17,677
17,249
17,813
16,935
16,788
16,789
15,831
16,475
16,003
16,790

17,293
15,920
17,833
17,468
18,080
17,313
17,448
17,214
16,494
17,060
16,540

January ..............
February ............
March .................
April ...................
May ....................
June ...................
July ....................
August ...............
September .........
October ..............
November ..........
December ..........

9,222
9,223

Annual ...............

9,221

9,235
9,229
9,208
9,203
9,198
9,202

9,210
9,212
9,221
9,238
9,254
9,267
9,271
9,265
9,276
9,276
9,280

1,855
1,709

1,818
1,819
1,719
1,790
1,740
1,825
21,822

1,878
1,728
1,934
1,891
1,954
1,868
1,882
1,858
1,778
1,839
1,782

1.1
1.0
0.9
1.3
1.5
2.2
3.9
2.5
4.2
3.6
3.4

201,218

1

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.
3
Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and milk per cow data for March through June.
2

Milk Production (December 2014)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Milk Cows and Production – 23 Selected States: November 2013 and 2014
[May not add due to rounding]
Milk cows 1
State

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

Change
from
2013

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(percent)

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

Arizona ..................
California ...............
Colorado ................
Florida ...................
Idaho .....................
Illinois ....................
Indiana ..................
Iowa .......................
Kansas ..................
Michigan ................

190
1,780
138
123
567
96
178
206
135
380

193
1,780
145
123
579
92
179
207
143
399

1,860
1,840
1,975
1,495
1,885
1,550
1,730
1,775
1,800
1,930

1,930
1,880
2,030
1,535
1,920
1,550
1,775
1,840
1,800
1,965

353
3,275
273
184
1,069
149
308
366
243
733

372
3,346
294
189
1,112
143
318
381
257
784

5.4
2.2
7.7
2.7
4.0
-4.0
3.2
4.1
5.8
7.0

Minnesota ..............
New Mexico ...........
New York ...............
Ohio .......................
Oregon ..................
Pennsylvania .........
South Dakota .........
Texas ....................
Utah .......................
Vermont .................

461
322
611
268
123
530
95
440
93
132

460
323
615
267
124
530
97
470
96
132

1,565
1,990
1,750
1,600
1,625
1,585
1,735
1,770
1,775
1,570

1,615
1,975
1,805
1,630
1,615
1,640
1,810
1,785
1,855
1,630

721
641
1,069
429
200
840
165
779
165
207

743
638
1,110
435
200
869
176
839
178
215

3.1
-0.5
3.8
1.4
3.5
6.7
7.7
7.9
3.9

Virginia ..................
Washington ...........
Wisconsin ..............

94
266
1,271

92
276
1,270

1,490
1,885
1,725

1,535
1,905
1,775

140
501
2,192

141
526
2,254

0.7
5.0
2.8

23-State Total ........

8,499

8,592

1,765

1,806

15,002

15,520

3.5

- Represents zero.
1
Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Monthly Milk Cows – 23 Selected States
Thousand head

8,605
8,585
8,565
8,545
8,525
8,505
2013

2014

8,485
Jan

Feb

Mar

Milk Production (December 2014)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

3

Milk Cows and Production – 23 Selected States: October 2013 and 2014
[May not add due to rounding]
Milk cows1

Milk per cow2

Milk Production 2

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(million pounds)

Change
from
2013

2014
(million pounds)

(percent)

Arizona ..................
California ...............
Colorado ................
Florida ....................
Idaho ......................
Illinois .....................
Indiana ...................
Iowa .......................
Kansas ...................
Michigan ................

190
1,780
137
123
569
97
178
206
135
380

193
1,779
145
123
579
93
179
207
143
397

1,880
1,875
2,030
1,400
1,950
1,570
1,790
1,820
1,835
2,000

1,915
1,930
2,105
1,470
2,010
1,600
1,820
1,885
1,855
2,050

357
3,338
278
172
1,110
152
319
375
248
760

370
3,433
305
181
1,164
149
326
390
265
814

3.6
2.8
9.7
5.2
4.9
-2.0
2.2
4.0
6.9
7.1

Minnesota ..............
New Mexico ...........
New York ...............
Ohio .......................
Oregon ...................
Pennsylvania .........
South Dakota .........
Texas .....................
Utah .......................
Vermont .................

463
322
610
269
123
530
95
440
93
132

460
323
615
267
124
530
97
470
96
132

1,610
2,025
1,840
1,650
1,690
1,620
1,830
1,820
1,840
1,620

1,655
2,050
1,880
1,710
1,685
1,680
1,860
1,825
1,920
1,680

745
652
1,122
444
208
859
174
801
171
214

761
662
1,156
457
209
890
180
858
184
222

2.1
1.5
3.0
2.9
0.5
3.6
3.4
7.1
7.6
3.7

Virginia ...................
Washington ............
Wisconsin ..............

94
266
1,272

92
275
1,270

1,510
1,975
1,795

1,580
1,995
1,845

142
525
2,283

145
549
2,343

2.1
4.6
2.6

23-State Total ........

8,504

8,589

1,817

1,864

15,449

16,013

3.7

1

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Monthly Milk per Cow – 23 Selected States
Pounds

2,000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
1,750
2013

2014

1,700
Jan

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Milk Production (December 2014)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers.
Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a
sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to
obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail
response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates
duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the
January Cattle Surveys.
Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic
trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board
for reasonableness.
Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month
after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data
from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions.
However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to
revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary,
a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are
minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data
for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for
selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is
computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk
production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate
will not be above or below the current estimate of 15.5 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10
that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent.

Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Months
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)

Milk production ...............................

0.2

0.3

26

1

81

15

9

All Milk cows ...................................

0.1

0.1

4

0

11

10

12

Milk Production (December 2014)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

5

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected].
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ............................................................................................................. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..................................................................................................... (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter ................................................................................................ (202) 720-3240
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ................................................................................................................. (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products .................................................................................................................. (202) 690-3236
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows ....................................................................................... (202) 720-3278
Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats ............................................................................................................... (202) 720-6147

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