0004-poult-15-SSB

1Supporting Statement

POULTRY SURVEYS

OMB No. 0535-0004

B. COLLECTION OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection has been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.

NASS’ poultry surveys can be separated into three groups based on target population. Hatchery surveys target operations that produce newly hatched birds (primarily chickens). Chicken and egg surveys target operations that produce chickens and eggs for human consumption. Turkey surveys target operations that produce turkeys. Recent sample sizes, response rates, and coverage rates (where response rate was less than 80 percent) for NASS’ poultry surveys are shown in the Table B1, below.

Hatchery Capacity Report – The Annual Hatchery Capacity Survey is a survey of all operations with a minimum hatch capacity of 1,000 chicken and/or turkey eggs. The 2014 coverage rate for this survey was 85.8 percent of total chickens hatched.

Placement of Pullet Chicks for Hatchery Supply Flocks – The sample for this monthly survey is all pullet placement breeders on NASS’ list frame. The 2014 coverage rate was 98.4 percent of total pullet chicks (broiler- and egg-type) kept and/or sold as replacements in hatchery supply flocks.

Chicken Hatchery Surveys – Data for broiler hatchery estimates are collected weekly from all broiler-type hatcheries that hatch at least one million chicks a year. Data for egg-type hatchery estimates are collected monthly from all egg-type hatcheries that hatch at least 50,000 chicks per year. The 2014 coverage rate for the egg-type hatchery survey was 91.3 percent of total eggs in incubators or hatchers.

Chicken and Egg Reports – For the December survey NASS selects from its list frame all known operations with 20,000 or more table egg layers, all operations with hatchery supply flocks, and pullet-only operations with 500 or more pullets.

For the monthly survey (January through November) all operations identified on the December survey to have 30,000 or more table egg layers, hatchery-supply flocks, or 500 or more pullets are surveyed.

The 2014 coverage rate for the annual Chicken and Egg Report was 79.7 percent of total number of layers (all types). Coverage was 76.9 percent for the monthly Chicken and Egg Report.

Turkey Hatcheries Survey – All known turkey hatcheries that hatch 15,000 or more poults annually are surveyed each month.

Turkeys Raised Survey – Data for turkey raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually. The 2014 coverage rate was 80.9 percent of total turkeys raised.

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including:

• statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection,

• estimation procedure,

• degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification,

• unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures

Hatchery Capacity Report – Individual hatchery data are summed to state, regional, and US totals. The capacity survey gives an indication of what the maximum possible production could be, and allows a measure of how close to capacity hatcheries are operating.

Placement of Pullet Chicks for Hatchery Supply Flocks – This monthly survey collects chicks hatched data on egg-type and broiler-type chicks intended for hatching flock replacements. It also includes chicks expected from eggs sold during the preceding month by primary breeders. The indications show the potential number of pullets available for addition to hatchery supply flocks several months before the pullets are actually moved into the flocks. Because the nationwide population of pullet placement breeders is relatively small and these companies typically have facilities in several states, this survey is conducted directly by NASS Headquarters and only US-level data is collected.

Chicken Hatchery Surveys – The hatchery surveys for chickens provide current data on the number of eggs set in incubators, the number of chicks hatched and the number of chicks placed. Number of eggs set affects the forthcoming chick hatch. Number placed in turn correlates to the number of broilers produced. The number of egg-type chicks hatched ultimately affects the table egg layer inventory.

Chick placements are a reliable indicator of forthcoming broiler supplies. Broilers produced and processed lag chick placements by approximately 7 weeks, since the growing period for broilers is 6 to 7 weeks. Eggs set statistics, which also come from the weekly Hatchery Survey, provide an additional three weeks of lead time for marketers to adjust their marketing strategy. With broilers having a relatively short production period and the industry made up of large organizations with the capacity to over-produce, the weekly Hatchery Survey closely monitors forthcoming supplies and contributes to orderly marketing of broilers.

Hatcheries are asked to report the number of broiler chicks delivered to other states. This question alerts the regional field offices to cross-state movements so that chick placement can be correctly recorded to determine the state in which they were grown for value of production estimates.

Chicken and Egg Reports – The December survey establishes the sample for the monthly survey (January through November). Since the samples differ slightly, coverage for operations with less than 30,000 table egg layers is estimated each month based on Agricultural Census data and data reported in December.

Reports from egg flock operators allow NASS to estimate monthly numbers of layers on hand, rate of lay, and total egg production by type of flock (table egg flocks and hatching egg flocks). Estimates are made for layers (mature female chickens producing marketable eggs). Estimates of molting percentages are made for layers that are being force molted and those that have completed one or more forced molts. An estimate is also made for pullets (female chickens prior to laying the first marketable egg). Estimates of monthly egg production are based on the indicated daily rate of egg production on the first of the month. Rate of lay during the month is derived and multiplied by an estimate of the number of layers on hand during the month to estimate egg production for the month.

Rate of lay and number of layers provide a measure of the current status of the nation’s laying flock. Monthly laying rate, when correlated with historic data, provide a very reliable indicator of future rates of lay.

Turkey Hatcheries Survey – Currently 18 states have operations that qualify for this survey. The data collected are eggs in incubators on the first of the month, the disposition of the poults hatched and poult placement information from the previous month. Only US-level estimates are published due to the limited number of states involved.

Turkeys Raised Survey – Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. The estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual state turkey or poultry associations.

In general, for each survey all data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations are estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices prepare estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual state and national estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

NASS personnel frequently consult with trade associations and other agricultural groups to ensure that questionnaires are relevant to respondents and the requested data are easy to report. For example, as a result of a meeting with the United Egg Producers’ (UEP) “Information Sharing Committee,” NASS redesigned the monthly Chicken and Egg Report and the UEP published a story in their United Voices Newsletter explaining the importance of the data NASS collects and stating that they hope “all egg farmers will complete the survey on a monthly basis.”

Survey data are subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions and mistakes in reporting and in processing the data. Error is minimized by carefully reviewing all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

Indications from the poultry surveys provide reliable estimates. The 37 major chicken egg producing states account for approximately 98 percent of the nation's total egg production. There are 21 major turkey producing states that conduct the semiannual Turkeys Raised Survey. Of these states, the 14 published states account for 88 percent of total US turkey production. The remaining 29 minor states are modeled from the 2012 Census of Agriculture, thus allowing NASS to publish an estimate at the national level.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken.

Statisticians have frequent contact with egg, chicken, and turkey producers when collecting data and at association meetings. Procedures and methods are discussed with respondents and data users to seek improvements.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

The survey design for each state is determined by the Sampling, Editing, and Imputation Methodology Branch (Branch Chief is Mark Apodaca (202) 720-5805 and Sampling Frame Development Section Head is Peter Quan (202) 720-5269), which works in conjunction with Summary, Estimation, and Disclosure Methodology Branch (Branch Chief is Jeff Bailey (202) 720-4008).

Data collection is carried out by NASS Regional Field Offices (RFOs). The Eastern Field Operations Director is Jay Johnson (202) 720-3638. The Western Field Operations Director is Kevin Barnes (202) 720-8220. Survey data are also reviewed and summarized by the RFOs. Publications are released from the RFOs and Headquarters.

The NASS Survey Administration Branch in Headquarters is responsible for coordination of sampling, questionnaires, data collection, and other field office support. Branch Chief is Gerald Tillman, (202) 720-3895.

There are several NASS commodity statisticians in Headquarters Statistics Division – Livestock Branch who work on the poultry surveys. They are responsible for survey administration, support for RFO activities, national data analysis, and publication. Livestock Branch Chief is Dan Kerestes (202) 720-3570.

November 2015