Turkeys Raised - Release

Turkeys Raised
ISSN: 1949-1972

Released September 30, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Turkeys Raised Down 4 Percent from 2014
Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2015 is forecasted at 228 million, down 4 percent from the number raised
during 2014.
A combination of six states account for nearly two-thirds of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2015. The
largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 40.0 million turkeys, down 12 percent from the previous year. North
Carolina is up 2 percent from last year, producing 29.0 million turkeys. Arkansas produced 27.0 million turkeys, which is
down 10 percent from the previous year. Indiana is up 1 percent from a year ago to 19.1 million turkeys. Missouri is up 6
percent from last year, producing 18.0 million turkeys. Virginia is up compared to the previous year by 4 percent at 17.4
million turkeys.

Number of Turkeys Raised – United States
Million head
280
270
260
250
240
230

220
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Number of Turkeys Raised – States and United States: 2014 and 2015
Number raised
State

2014

2015

2015 as
percent
of 2014

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(percent)

Arkansas ...........................................................................
California ..........................................................................
Indiana ..............................................................................
Iowa ..................................................................................
Michigan ...........................................................................
Minnesota .........................................................................
Missouri ............................................................................
North Carolina ...................................................................
Ohio ..................................................................................
Pennsylvania ....................................................................

30,000
11,000
19,000
10,500
5,100
45,500
17,000
28,500
5,100
7,000

27,000
11,100
19,100
8,400
5,200
40,000
18,000
29,000
5,100
7,100

90
101
101
80
102
88
106
102
100
101

South Dakota ....................................................................
Utah ..................................................................................
Virginia ..............................................................................
West Virginia .....................................................................

4,500
4,000
16,800
3,100

4,000
3,600
17,400
3,100

89
90
104
100

Other States 1 ...................................................................

30,400

29,900

98

United States ....................................................................

237,500

228,000

96

1

Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more
turkeys annually. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations. Approximately
400 turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and February. The data collected were received by electronic
data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews.
Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and
breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those
destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September
Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published
in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications
for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by individual State turkey
or poultry associations.
Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April.
Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the
five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

2

Turkeys Raised (September 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Reliability: Turkey raised estimates are based on a census of all known turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have no
sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing of the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict
quality controls in the data collection process, and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error” for number of turkeys
raised is shown in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past performance
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for number of
turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not
be above or below the current estimate of 228 million turkeys by more than 1.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the
difference will not exceed 2.9 percent.

Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates
[Based on data for the past ten years]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Number raised .................................

1.6

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

2.9

3,240

500

8,540

Years
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)
6

4

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .................................................................. (202) 720-4447
Alissa Cowell-Mytar – Cold Storage ....................................................................................................... (202) 720-4751
Heidi Gleich – Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ................................................................................ (202) 720-0585
Michael Klamm – Poultry Slaughter ........................................................................................................ (202) 720-3040
Tom Kruchten – Census of Aquaculture .................................................................................................. (202) 690-4870
Kim Linonis – Layers, Eggs ..................................................................................................................... (202) 690-8632
Sammy Neal – Catfish Production, Egg Products, Mink, Trout Production, Turkey Hatchery,
Turkeys Raised ...................................................................................................................................... (202) 720-3244
Joshua O’Rear – Honey ............................................................................................................................ (202) 690-3676

Turkeys Raised (September 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

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