Supporting_Statement_-_Part_B_UFO2015v4

Supporting Statement - Part B

U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Census Bureau

Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders Survey

(Form MA-3000)

OMB Control No. 0607-0561

B. Collection of Information Employing Statistical Methods

1. Description of Universe

The Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders (M3UFO) survey’s universe is defined as consisting of all domestic companies with one or more manufacturing establishments classified in the Major Manufacturing Activities List MA-3000(I) in Appendix C. Companies with no establishments classified in these categories or employing fewer than five employees are excluded from the universe.

The industries selected for the M3UFO survey are those which the U.S. Census Bureau determined to maintain considerable unfilled orders. The M3UFO survey is necessary to ensure future accuracy of the unfilled orders and new orders data in the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey and to determine which NAICS industries continue to maintain unfilled orders. There is a clear need for periodic benchmarking of the M3 estimates to accurately reflect the manufacturing universe, and the M3UFO survey provides these benchmarks for unfilled orders data.

2. Sampling Methodology and Estimating Procedure

The Census Bureau’s Business Register is the source of the M3UFO survey’s sample frame. The sample frame is comprised of company by M3 category records. Data are collected in 92 industry categories, which are groupings of the 364 manufacturing industries as defined in the 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Manual. These industries are combined into 92 industry categories for tabulation and into 65 publication levels for shipments and total inventories. A company with activity in multiple categories has multiple records. Each company by M3 category record represents the combined activity of all establishments classified within the category. Each company by M3 category record is assigned a probability of selection that is commensurate with its relative importance (based on value of shipments) within the M3 category and the relative importance of the M3 category. Consequently, a company with activity in multiple M3 categories is assigned multiple probabilities. A company is assigned a final probability equal to the maximum of its individual category probabilities. The sample is comprised of approximately 6,000 companies.

For each M3 industry category, unfilled orders benchmark estimates are derived by summing weighted data, where the weight for a given company is the inverse of the probability of being included in the sample. For eight industry categories, we split the estimates into defense and nondefense subcategories. A given unfilled orders estimate is then adjusted by the ratio of two shipments estimates. The numerator of the ratio is the ASM or Economic Census shipments estimate, and the denominator is the corresponding shipments estimate from the M3UFO survey. Each category is adjusted separately. When a large company reports an unusual ratio of unfilled orders to shipments for an industry category and strongly influences the overall ratio for the industry category, the company's data are excluded from the overall ratio, but its unfilled orders data are included in the final unfilled orders estimate for the industry category.

3. Efforts to Maximize Response

Based on previous years, we expect a check-in rate of at least 80 percent and a weighted response rate of 70 percent. Dedicated efforts are made to maximize response. Companies that do not respond to the survey receive a follow-up letter. Thirty days after the follow-up letter, a telephone follow-up is conducted of the largest non-respondents. Report forms are reviewed and evaluated for any comments and suggestions made by the respondents to improve the survey results.

4. Tests of Procedures or Methods

Periodically, the Census Bureau staff interviews survey respondents to assess our data requests and to keep abreast of the current record keeping practices and changes in technology.

5. Contacts for Statistical Aspects and Data Collection

Person responsible for statistical methodology:

Amy M. Newman-Smith,

Methodology Director for

Manufacturing, Investment and Construction Programs

Economic Statistical Methods Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(301) 763-6595

Person responsible for data collection:

Mary Catherine Potter, Assistant Division Chief

Quarterly and Manufacturing Indicator Programs

Economic Indicators Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(301) 763-4207

List of Appendices

A. Form MA-3000

B. Instructions MA-3000(INST)

C. Major Manufacturing Activities List MA-3000(I)

D. Initial Mail-out Letter

E. Follow-up Letter

F. Centurion Login Screen

G. Centurion Burden Statement Screen