State, Local completes 2nd observation

ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE ON WATERFOWL

Instrument-Climate Waterfowl 2016-07-26

State, Local completes 2nd observation

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Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl



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Paperwork Reduction Act statements [16 U.S.C. 1a7]: The Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918, 19 USC 703, authorized collection of this information. This information will be used by the U.S. Geological Survey to prioritize climate-related research topics on migratory waterfowl. Response to this request is voluntary. We estimate that it will take 20 minutes to prepare and respond to this collection if one of the four species of interest is the focus of your research or management activities. If your research or management activities also focus on a second species in the list, responding for the second species is expected to take an additional 10 minutes. You will not be asked to respond for more than two species. We will not distribute responses associated with you as an individual. We ask you for some basic organizational information to help us interpret the results.


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Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl



Thank you for participating




Shape2 The U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Climate Science Center (CSC) seeks to develop a framework for prioritizing research topics within the Alaska CSC and among other CSCs in order to more quickly and efficiently incorporate potential effects of a changing climate into a cross-seasonal and continental-scale approach to managing waterfowl populations (e.g., Mattsson et al. 2012; Ecol Modelling 225: 146-158).


Through this questionnaire, we draw upon the expertise of managers and researchers to identify factors (e.g., habitat conditions) that affect population size, the demographic rates affected by these factors and the effects of climate change on these factors for key waterfowl species that breed in Alaska. Your identification of key linkages between climate, factors, and demographic rates will be used to establish research priorities such as improving quantification of these linkages for incorporation into annual life cycle population models. We also seek to identify cross-seasonal information needs to enhance information transfer among managers/researchers who focus on different phases of the annual cycle. This information will be used to promote integration of regional habitat management and continental-scale population goals.


We focus on four species or groups of species that breed in Alaska, each of which may be affected by both climate and non-climate stressors during any of the four phases of their annual cycle (breeding, fall migration, wintering, spring migration). The selected species represent a range of life history strategies (i.e., diving and dabbling ducks) and diverse historical population trends. The species include:


· Greater and lesser scaup, diving ducks with declining continental population trends



· Canvasback, a diving duck with increasing continental population trends



· Pintail, a dabbling duck with declining continental population trends



· Mallard, a dabbling duck with increasing continental population trends



Scaup, pintail and mallard have also been identified by the NAWMP Science Support Teams Demographic Objectives Committee as priority species for the development of annual life cycle models. By including species with a range of life history strategies and population trajectories, the results of this work may have broader applicability to other species, such as data-poor unharvested species that are often underrepresented in research and management priorities.


The results will be summarized and presented at a national conference where we will facilitate a more in-depth discussion of the current state of knowledge of the effects of climate change on each phase of the waterfowl annual cycle and ways that this information may be incorporated into continental-scale metapopulation models. A peer-reviewed publication documenting this process and conclusions will be the final product of this work. You will be notified of the national conference venue and date and the citation for the published work



Please complete the survey within 2 weeks of receipt.



There are five introductory questions, four wrap-up questions and 13 questions per waterfowl species. In the interest of brevity, we only seek your input on a maximum of two species from our four-species focal group.


Your responses will be saved once you move to the next page. You can return to the questionnaire to complete sections or change responses at any time until the questionnaire closes.



We will contact you via your business email or phone to remind you to complete the questionnaire before the closing date. SurveyMonkey will not sell or use your business email addresses except to send out the questionnaire and reminders. Once you complete the questionnaire, you will no longer receive any communication from SurveyMonkey.


We hope that you will participate in this survey as it is a very efficient way to get a lot of information from individuals representing a range of management goals, geographic regions, and research needs in a short period of time. Your feedback will be very important for the development of future research programs.



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Shape3

Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl



Background Information



1. Who is your employer?


Shape4 State government Shape5 Federal government Shape6 University

Shape7 Non-governmental Organization


Shape8 Shape9 Other (please specify)




2. What is your primary work objective?


Shape10 Research


Shape11 Land management


Shape12 Harvest management


Shape13 Other (please specify)




3. Estimate the proportion of your time in research or management activities that is spent considering climate effects?


Shape14 0-25% Shape15 25-50% Shape16 50-75% Shape17 75-100%


4. Do you think there should be more, less, or the same amount of emphasis on climate change in your work?

Shape18 Choices are: more, less, same amount

5. Which of the following species or group of species is the greatest priority of your research/management activities?


Shape19 Greater and/or lesser scaup


Shape20 Canvasback


Shape21 Pintail


Shape22 Mallard


Shape23 None of these species are priorities of my research/management activities

Note: in the questions that follow, information is carried forward to remind the responder of their previous answer. For example, the [Q5] below would indicate that the species name chosen in question 5 would be carried forward to this position.


Shape24

Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl



[Q5]: Identification of two factors currently influencing population size




On this page, we ask you to identify the two unique combinations of factors and phases of the annual life cycle that currently have the greatest effect on [Q5] population size.

On the next page, we ask you to identify any specific geographic locations that may be associated with these factors.

We will then ask you to identify the two demographic rates most affected by each of the two factors. We also ask you to consider how population size will respond to the effects of climate change on

the factors.



Shape25


6. Which one of the following factors do you think currently has the greatest effect on [Q5] population size?


Shape26 Pond/wetland size


Shape27 Number of ponds/wetlands


Shape28 Pond/wetland depth and permanence


Shape29 Water characteristics (e.g., temperature, nutrients)


Shape30 Wetland vegetation type and structure


Shape31 Upland vegetation type and structure


Shape32 Development impacts to wetlands (e.g., impounding, drainage)


Shape33 Development impacts to uplands (e.g., agriculture)


Shape34 Contaminants


Shape35 Food availability


Shape37 Shape36 Other (please specify)

Shape38 Mismatch between phenology of seasonal habitats and duck movements among phases of the annual cycle


Shape39 Range shifts Shape40 Harvest rate Shape41 Predation

Shape42 Parasites/disease


Shape43 Air temperature (i.e., thermal stress)


Shape44 Inter-specific competition


Shape45 Population distribution among breeding grounds/flyways


Shape46 Density-dependence

7. During which phase of the annual cycle does this factor have the greatest influence on [Q5] population size?

Shape47

Phase choices are: Breeding, Fall migration, Winter and Spring migration


8. Which one of the following factors do you think currently has the second greatest effect on [Q5] population size?

Note: You can select the same factor you identified as having the greatest effect on scaup population size if it applies to a different season (e.g., food availability during breeding has the greatest effect and food availability during spring migration has the second greatest effect)


Shape48 Pond/wetland size


Shape49 Number of ponds/wetlands


Shape50 Pond/wetland depth and permanence


Shape51 Water characteristics (e.g., temperature, nutrients)


Shape52 Wetland vegetation type and structure


Shape53 Upland vegetation type and structure


Shape54 Development impacts to wetlands (e.g., impounding, drainage)


Shape55 Development impacts to uplands (e.g., agriculture)


Shape56 Contaminants


Shape57 Food availability


Shape59 Shape58 Other (please specify)

Shape60 Mismatch between phenology of seasonal habitats and duck movements among phases of the annual cycle


Shape61 Range shifts Shape62 Harvest rate Shape63 Predation

Shape64 Parasites/disease


Shape65 Air temperature (i.e., thermal stress)


Shape66 Inter-specific competition


Shape67 Population distribution among breeding grounds/flyways


Shape68 Density-dependence

9. During which phase of the annual cycle does this factor have the second greatest influence on [Q5] population size?

Shape69 Phase choices are: breeding, fall migration, winter and spring migration



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Shape70 Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl


SCAUP: Geographic regions associated with the factors currently influencing population size





10. Enter any specific geographic regions (e.g., Prairie pothole, Pacific flyway) that are associated with the two factors you identified as the most influential to [Q5] population size. If all geographic regions of the phase (e.g., all breeding grounds) are relevant then write 'ALL'.


Shape71 [Q6] during [Q7]


Shape72 [Q8] during [Q9]



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Shape73

Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl


[Q5]: Relationships between 2 factors, climate change, demography, & population size


On this page, we ask you to identify the two demographic rates most affected by each of the two factors you identified as having the greatest effect on [Q5] population size.

We also ask you to consider how on [Q5] population size may respond to the effects of climate change on the two factors you identified.


Shape75



11. Select the two demographic rates that are most affected by '[Q6] during [Q7]'.

Note: A factor may influence a demographic parameter 1) directly within the same season/location as the factor (e.g., the number of ponds on a breeding ground may affect breeding season production) or 2) indirectly in a different season/location than the factor (e.g., food availability during spring migration may affect breeding season production).


Demographic Rate


Most affected demographic rate


Shape76 Second most affected demographic rate Shape77



Demographic rate choices are:

Production

Adult female probability of breeding

Adult female survival during breeding season

Adult male survival during breeding season

Adult female survival during fall migration

Adult male survival during fall migration

Juvenile survival during fall migration

Adult survival during winter

Juvenile survival during winter

Adult male survival during spring migration

Adult female survival during spring migration

Juvenile survival during spring migration

Unsure



12. Select the expected population response to the effects of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation on '[Q6] during [Q7]'.

Note: for the opposite scenario of increasing precipitation, we will assume that the population response will be opposite of that indicated


for the decreasing precipitation scenario.


Population Response


Population response to effects of increasing temperature on

'[Q6] during [Q7]'


Shape79 Shape78 Population response to effects of decreasing precipitation on

'[Q6] during [Q7]'


Population Response choices are:

direction of response is expected to vary spatially

increase in population size

decrease in population size

population size will be unaffected

unsure


13. Select the two demographic rates that are most affected by '[Q8] during [Q9]'.

Note: A factor may influence a demographic parameter 1) directly within the same season/location as the factor (e.g., the number of ponds on a breeding ground may affect breeding season production) or 2) indirectly in a different season/location than the factor (e.g., food availability during spring migration may affect breeding season production).


Demographic Rate


Most affected demographic rate



Shape81 Shape80 Second most affected demographic rate


Demographic Rate choices are:

Production

Adult female probability of breeding

Adult female survival during breeding season

Adult male survival during breeding season

Adult female survival during fall migration

Adult male survival during fall migration

Juvenile survival during fall migration

Adult survival during winter

Juvenile survival during winter

Adult male survival during spring migration

Adult female survival during spring migration

Juvenile survival during spring migration

Unsure



14. Select the expected population response to the effects of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation on '[Q8] during [Q9]'.

Note: for the opposite scenario of increasing precipitation, we will assume that the population response will be opposite of that indicated


for the decreasing precipitation scenario.


Population Response


Population response to effects of increasing temperature on

'[Q8] during [Q9]'


Shape83 Shape82 Population response to effects of decreasing precipitation on

'[Q8] during [Q9]'


Population Response choices are:

direction of response is expected to vary spatially

increase in population size

decrease in population size

population size will be unaffected

unsure


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Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl




Shape84

Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl



[Q5]: Factors influencing population size in a future climate


15. If the climate changes in the future, would your identification and/or ranking of the 2 most important factors affecting [Q5] population size change?

i.e., will a factor that is not important to population size now become more important in a future climate?


Shape85

Choices are: Yes, No, Unsure


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Shape86

Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl


[Q5]: Density-dependence


Shape87

16. Indicate whether the following density-dependent relationships (Mattsson et al. 2012) have an effect on [Q5] population dynamics.

In the last row, fill in any other density-dependent relationships between demographic rates and population size which may be important


but are not listed.



As breeding population increases, production decreases





Shape88 As mid-winter population increases, post-harvest survival decreases


Shape89 Shape90


As mid-winter population increases, the proportion that flyover to more northern breeding areas increases.





Shape91 Other (please specify)







Density Dependence choices are:

This relationship has been explicitly quantified in peer-reviewed literature

There is empirical evidence that the relationship exists but it has not been quantified

It is generally believed among experts in the field that the relationship influences population dynamics

The relationship does not affect population dynamics

Unable to judge


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Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl





Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl

Shape92


[Q5]: Identification of seasonal and cross-seasonal information needs




17. Which of the following phases are primary responsibilities of your work with [Q5]? You may choose more than one.


Shape93 Breeding


Shape94 Fall migration


Shape95 Winter


Shape96 Spring migration




18. Given what is already known, what is your highest priority information need for [Q5] during each phase? If a phase is not your primary responsibility, indicate the piece of information, if any, that you would most like to receive from those whose work does focus on this phase. Lastly, rank order the phases/information needs based on their relative influence on population size with '1' being the most influential. You may need to scroll over to see the rank column.


Information need Rank


Breeding


Shape98 Shape99 Shape97 Fall migration


Winter


Shape101 Shape102 Shape100 Spring migration


Shape103 Other information need (please be phase-specific)







Information Need choices are:

Kill rates

Crippling rates

Density-dependent relationships: identification and quantification

Pond/wetland size and/or effects on demographic rates

Number of ponds/wetlands and/or effects on demographic rates

Pond/wetland depth and permanence and/or effects on demographic rates

Water characteristics (e.g. temp, nutrients) and/or effects on demographic rates

Wetland/upland vegetation type and structure and/or effects on demographic rates

Wetland/upland development (e.g. agriculture) and/or effects on demographic rates

Contaminants: amount and uptake and/or effects on demographic rates

Food availability and/or effects on demographic rates

Mismatch between phenology of habitats and duck movements among phases

Range shifts and/or effects on demographic rates

Population distribution among different breeding/wintering grounds or flyways

Predation and/or effects on demographic rates

Parasites/disease and/or effects on demographic rates

Air temperature (i.e., thermal stress) and/or effects on demographic rates

Inter-specific competition and/or effects on demographic rates

Baseline estimates of survival rates

Baseline estimates of production

Baseline estimates of breeding probability

None

Other


Rank choices are: 1, 2, 3, 4; there can be ties


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Shape104

Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl






19. Have you completed questions for two species?


We are asking this question to ensure proper branching either to the next species or to the wrap-up section of the questionnaire.


Shape105 Yes


Shape106 No


If YES, directed to Wrap-up, question #21

If NO directed question #20 to make another species choice



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Shape107

Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl





20. Which of the following species or group of species is the second greatest priority of your research/management activities?


Shape108 Greater and/or lesser scaup


Shape109 Canvasback


Shape110 Pintail


Shape111 Mallard


Shape112 None of these species are priorities of my research/management activities



If an additional species is selected, respondent is directed to a set of questions that duplicate questions 6-19 for the second species.


If “None of these species….” is selected, then the respondent is directed to Wrap-up question #21.



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Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl

Identifying Climate Change and Cross-seasonal Research Priorities for Waterfowl



Wrap-up





Shape113 21. Is there a waterfowl species that breeds in Alaska and winters in the continental United States besides the four addressed here (scaup, canvasback, pintail, mallard) that you think should be a top research priority due to abundance, conservation status, lack of information, or any other reason? For each species

Shape114 listed, indicate the reason for prioritization.








22. Please prioritize the following based on their feasibility and your research/management needs:


Shape115 Feasibility Research/management need


Development of effective guild-based continental population models


Adaptation of existing single-species continental

population models (e.g., Mattsson et al. 2012) for Shape116 Shape117 additional species of dabblers and divers


Feasibility choices are: Feasible, Not feasible, Unsure


Research/Management need choices are: High Priority, Low Priority, Unsure



23. Having completed this questionnaire, do you think there should be more, less, or the same amount of emphasis on climate change in your work?

Shape118

Choices are: More, Less, Same



24. Having completed this questionnaire, do you think your work should involve more, less, or the same amount of cross-seasonal information?

Shape119

Choices are: More, Less, Same


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