Attachment D

Understanding Trust in Official
Statistics in the United States
Jennifer Hunter Childs
Center for Survey Measurement
Research and Methodology Directorate
U.S. Census Bureau

Acknowledgements
•  Ryan King and Aleia Clark Fobia, U.S.
Census Bureau
•  Paul Scanlon, National Center for Health
Statistics
•  Michelle Smirnova, University of Missouri,
Kansas City

Overview
•  Developing a Framework to Measure Trust
in Official Statistics
•  Qualitative Methodology and Findings
•  Quantitative Methodology and Findings
•  Implications for Building Trust
•  Time Series Analysis
•  Conclusions

Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) Working Group
•  Measure trust in official statistics
•  Produce model survey questionnaire to gather
comparable statistics internationally
•  Cognitively tested in 6 member nations (Brackfield
2011)

•  Questions are inadequately understood by U.S.
respondents (Willson 2010)

4

Trust in Statistical Products
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Accuracy
Reliability
Credibility
Objectivity
Relevance
Timeliness
Coherence
5

Trust in Statistical Institution
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Confidentiality Protected
Integrity
Openness/Transparency
Impartiality
Effective Stakeholder Management

6

OECD Model of Trust in Official Statistics

7

Qualitative Findings in US
•  Overall lack of knowledge about federal statistics
led to:
–  Shifting Interpretations
–  Not thinking about statistics
–  Interpretations limited to examples given

8

Recommendations from
Qualitative Testing
•  Define concepts up front
•  Be specific
•  Keep it simple

9

Awareness
•  Knowledge of Statistics
•  Data User
–  Found to be best predictor of question
comprehension in past cognitive testing by
NCHS

10

Trust in Statistical Products
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Accuracy
Reliability
Credibility
Objectivity
Relevance
Timeliness
Coherence
11

Trust in Statistical Institution
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Confidentiality Protected
Integrity
Objectivity/Transparency
Impartiality
Effective Stakeholder Management

12

Eurobarometer measure
Personally, how much trust do you have in the
federal statistics in the United States? Would
you say that you tend to trust federal statistics
or tend not to trust them?

Data Collection
•  Gallup Nightly Survey
–  200 responses daily
–  Subsample of National RDD Sample
–  Landline and Cellphone

•  Initial Gallup contract was 25 questions collected Feb.
2012
–  September 2013
–  19 question core, 6 rotating questions

•  Contract extension was 10 questions collected
October 2013 – March 2014
–  5 question core, 5 rotating questions

14

Quantitative Findings
•  Relationships with trust
•  Confidence in institutions

%

 who
 Trust
 Federal
 Sta1s1cs

Relationships between Overall
Trust and Other Measures
100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

71.9

69.1

59.5

17

Disagree

24.7

21.1

Agree

Disagree

Relevance
 of
 Fed
 Stats

Agree

Invade

Respect

Agencies
 Keep
 Data

Agencies
 and
 Privacy

ConfidenEal

A4tudes
 on
 Other
 Measures

%
 Who
 Report
 Trus1ng
 Fed
 Stats

Effects on Trust by Data User
100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Data
 User

Non-­‐Data
 User

Disagree

Agree

Disagree

Agree

Invade

Respect

Relevance
 of
 Fed
 Stats
  Agencies
 Keep
 Data
  Agencies
 and
 Privacy

ConfidenEal

A4tudes
 on
 Other
 Measures

Relationship between Confidence in Institutions by
Knowledge of Federal Statistics
0.7

Gamma
 Correla1on

0.6

0.5

FSS
 -­‐
 Newspapers

FSS
 -­‐
 Congress

FSS
 -­‐
 UniversiEes

FSS
 -­‐
 Newspapers

FSS
 -­‐
 UniversiEes

0.4

0.3

FSS
 -­‐
 Congress

FSS
 -­‐
 Military

0.2

0.1

0

FSS
 -­‐
 Military

Low
 Knowedge

High
 Knowledge

Implications for Building Trust

•  In a time when confidence in Congress is
particularly poor, increasing knowledge about
the statistical system and increasing data users
could help people differentiate between sectors
of the government, thus increasing confidence
in the FSS.
•  Overall, knowledge of the statistical system, as
well as using data, believing the data are
relevant, kept confidential and that agencies
respect privacy all correspond with increased
trust in the statistical products.

Trust

Trust Post Shutdown

Confidential

Confidential Post-Shutdown

Time Series Analysis

24

Do levels of trust change during
times of negative publicity?
October 5, 2012

June 6, 2013

May 10, 2013

October 1, 2013

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#SFBL
JO
%BUB
$PMMFDUJPO
2013−09−15

2013−06−10

2013−05−10 *34
4UPSZ

0.35

2012−10−06 5XFFU


0.40

/4"
4UPSZ


0.45

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2014−03−15

●

4IVUEPXO


●●

2013−10−01

0.65

2012−02−15

Proportion of Population Reporting Trust in Federal Statistics

3FQPSUFE
5SVTU
JO
'FEFSBM
4UBUJTUJDT
0WFS
5JNF

26

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%JTBHSFF

●

4IVUEPXO


●

●
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2013−09−15

●

●

/4"
4UPSZ


●

●

2012−10−06

●

●

●● ●

5XFFU


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2013−06−10

●

*34
4UPSZ


●

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2014−03−15

●
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2013−05−10

●

0.6

2013−10−01

●

4IVUEPXO


#SFBL
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%BUB
$PMMFDUJPO

/4"
4UPSZ


*34
4UPSZ


5XFFU


0.7

2012−02−15

Proportion Agreen/Disagree that Federal Agencies Keep Data Confidential

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27

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5XFFU


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4IVUEPXO


0.4

"HSFF

/4"
4UPSZ

*34
4UPSZ

0.6

%JTBHSFF
4IVUEPXO


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5XFFU




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2013−10−01

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2013−09−15

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2013−06−10

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2012−10−06

0.2

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2013−05−10

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2014−03−15

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2012−02−15

Proportion Reporting Agree/Disagree Need for Federal Statistics

3FQPSUFE
#FMJFG
UIBU
1PMJDZ
.BLFST
/FFE
'FEFSBM
4UBUJTUJDT
0WFS
5JNF

28

So What?
•  Does this impact response rates?
•  Correlation DOES NOT imply causation,
but it’s something we can look at

29

Trust
 and
 Belief
 in
 ConfidenEality
 along
 with

Survey
 Response
 Rates*

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

Trust
 Fed
 Stats

0.6

FSAs
 Keep
 Data
 ConfidenEal

0.5

FSAs
 Respect
 Privacy

0.4

Survey
 1
 RR

Survey
 2
 RR

0.3

Survey
 3
 RR

0.2

Survey
 4
 RR

2014-­‐02

2014-­‐01

2013-­‐12

2013-­‐11

2013-­‐10

2013-­‐09

2013-­‐08

2013-­‐07

2013-­‐06

2013-­‐05

2013-­‐04

2013-­‐03

2013-­‐02

2013-­‐01

2012-­‐12

2012-­‐11

2012-­‐10

2012-­‐09

2012-­‐08

2012-­‐07

2012-­‐06

2012-­‐05

2012-­‐04

2012-­‐03

0

2012-­‐02

0.1

*Preliminary
 unpublished
 response
 rates

Correlations between “Trust” and Response Rates
and “Confidential” and Response Rates
Survey 1 RR
•  Trust r = 0.62 , p = 0.001
•  Confidential r = 0.70, p < 0.001
Survey 2 RR
•  Trust r = 0.74 , p < 0.001
•  Confidential r = 0.58, p = 0.002

Survey 3 RR
•  Trust r = 0.75, p < 0.001
•  Confidential r = 0.64, p < 0.001
Survey 4 RR
•  Trust r = 0.70, p<.001
•  Confidential r = 0.55, p<.01

Conclusions
•  “Breaking news” can impact how the
public views the statistical system.
•  This can impact how they view our use of
administrative records for statistical
purposes.
•  These news stories, or another
unmeasured yet related factor, seem to be
correlated with survey response rates.
32

Thank You!
Contact Information
Jennifer Hunter Childs
[email protected]