1028-xxx SS-B Yukon-Kuskokwin 2016-12-08

Supporting Statement B

Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Berry Outlook

OMB Control Number 1028-XXXX

Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods

The agency should be prepared to justify its decision not to use statistical methods in any case where such methods might reduce burden or improve accuracy of results. When the question “Does this ICR contain surveys, censuses, or employ statistical methods?” is checked "Yes," the following documentation should be included in Supporting Statement B to the extent that it applies to the methods proposed:

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection had been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.

The potential respondent universe is the combined population of the villages of Emmonak, Chevak, Kotlik, and Hooper Bay, Alaska residents who have lived in their respective village for ten or more years and have participated in berry harvesting over that time. I have no way of estimating this numerically as census data does not report on length of time one has resided in their current village and there is no available data on how long an individual has participated in berry harvesting activities. We are using a purposive sampling strategy to recruit survey participants that are experts about berries and berry harvesting in their village and region. Community partners in the Tribal Councils of each village listed above are assisting in participant recruitment and expert identification. We are aiming for ten participants from each village for a total of forty participants. A sample size of ten per village was chosen so that the sample size of the combined villages would be thirty respondents or more as thirty respondents is considered the minimum sample size for the cultural consensus statistical methods that will be used to analyze the data. We are confident that administering the survey one on one in person that we can reach a response rate of 95-100% because our presence in the community will allow us to pick up new participants if others drop out.

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including:

* Statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection,

* Estimation procedure,

* Degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification,

* Unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures, and

* Any use of periodic (less frequent than annual) data collection cycles to reduce burden.

We are not utilizing statistical methodology for sample selection. This is due to the fact that we are not seeking a representative sample of the population, instead we are seeking experts and therefore utilizing a purposive sampling procedure.

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling, a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

As opposed to a standard paper based survey our survey will be conducted one on one in person with the respondent. The survey questions will be read to the respondent and responses filled in by the interviewer. As such interviewers will spend time in the communities conducting the survey allowing for new participants to be contacted if those participants initially identified as to being willing to participate later decline to take part in the survey. In this way we believe that we can achieve a 95-100% response rate. Furthermore, this method of conducting the survey will eliminate non-response as the interviewer will ensure that all survey questions are adequately answered. Finally, informant reliability will be estimated by aggregating responses across the entire respondent population and obtaining an item-to-total correlation. In other words the response of each individual correlated with the aggregated response of all other individuals without that particular individual. No responses will be thrown out, rather this analysis will provide an indication of the reliability of each respondent.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken. Testing is encouraged as an effective means of refining collections of information to minimize burden and improve utility. Tests must be approved if they call for answers to identical questions from 10 or more respondents. A proposed test or set of tests may be submitted for approval separately or in combination with the main collection of information.

The survey was circulated to four community members in the villages participating in the study, which has led to the inclusion of a fourth berry species and additional questions about erosion and flooding. It was also circulated to five experts in the field for comment, which led to the addition of questions clarifying berry species characteristics and dropping some questions. No further tests are planned.

5. Provide the names and telephone numbers of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), grantee(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

Ronald Antweiler was consulted on the statistical aspects of the design.

Nicole Herman-Mercer will actually collect and analyze the information for the USGS.

Ronald Antweiler, ph. 303-541-3047

Nicole Herman-Mercer, ph. 303-236-5031

[OMB-OIRA has produced a number of documents that may serve as useful reference material for completing Supporting Statement B. These can be found at:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy]

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