Press Releases

1 - Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016 .pdf

Monthly Retail Surveys

Press Releases

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Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EST, FRIDAY, JANUARY 13, 2017

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES,
DECEMBER 2016
Release Number: CB17-07
January 13, 2017 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following advance estimates of U.S. retail and
food services sales for December 2016:
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
from Previous Month

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES

Data adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for
price changes.

December 2016

$469.1 billion

+0.6%

November 2016
(revised)

$466.2 billion

+0.2%*

Next release: February 15, 2017
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient
statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from
zero.
Data adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day
differences but not for price changes. Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey, January 13, 2017.

3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1

October
Total

November
Ex Auto

Auto

December
Gen Mer

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
January 13, 2017

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2016, adjusted for seasonal variation
and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $469.1 billion, an increase of 0.6
percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.9 percent) above December 2015. Total
sales for the 12 months of 2016 were up 3.3 percent (±0.6 percent) from 2015. Total sales for the October
2016 through December 2016 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago.
The October 2016 to November 2016 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up
0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.
Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2016, and up 4.3 percent (±0.7
percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 13.2 percent (±1.8 percent) from December 2015, while
Miscellaneous stores were up 7.1 percent (±4.6 percent) from last year.
General Information
With the release of the December 2016 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on January 13, 2017,
the presentation of the release changed. The text portion of the release has been removed from the
Data Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch
301-763-2713
[email protected]

Media Inquiries
Public Information Office
301-763-3030
[email protected]

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

Excel file. The layout and format of the tables did not change, though some explanatory notes moved
to the text portion of the document. The full text and tables are still available as a PDF.
The January 2017 Advance Monthly Retail report is scheduled for release on February 15, 2017 at
8:30 a.m. EST. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room:
. The full text and tables of this release can be found at
.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services
sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,700 retail and food services
firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three
million retail and food services firms.
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey to provide
an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United
States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 4,700 employer
firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Advance sales estimates are computed using a
link relative estimator. For each detailed industry, we compute a ratio of current-to-previous month
weighted sales using data from units for which we have obtained usable responses for both the current and
previous month. For each detailed industry, the advance total sales estimates for the current month is
computed by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from
the larger MRTS) at the appropriate industry level. Total estimates for broader industries are computed as
the sum of the detailed industry estimates. The link relative estimate is used because imputation is not
performed for most nonrespondents in MARTS. For a limited number of nonresponding companies that
have influential effects on the estimates, sales may be estimated based on historical performance of that
company. The monthly estimates are benchmarked to the annual survey estimates from the Annual Retail
Trade Survey once available. The estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day
differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at:
.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and
nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete
enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because

Data Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch
301-763-2713
[email protected]

Media Inquiries
Public Information Office
301-763-3030
[email protected]

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients
of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation.
The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent
confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard
error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.753 x 0.9 percent or ±1.6 percent, and the 90
percent confidence interval is –0.4 percent to +2.8 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have
sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and
therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically
significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is
given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.753 x CV x (the estimated monthly total).
The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information
into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates.
Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey
estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail
businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage,
or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality
control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
America’s Economy Mobile App
The America’s Economy app provides real-time updates for 19 key economic indicators released from the
Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new
users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever before.

-X* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

Data Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch
301-763-2713
[email protected]

Media Inquiries
Public Information Office
301-763-3030
[email protected]

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail
Trade Survey, and administrative records.)

Adjusted2

Not Adjusted
1

NAICS

Kind of Business

12 Month Total

2016

% Chg.
2015

Dec.
(a)

5,504,106

3.3

Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) … 4,374,882
Retail …..……………………………. 4,845,272
(*)
GAFO4………………………....……...……...…………..

2015

2016

Nov.
(p)

Oct.
(r)

Dec.

Nov.

Dec.
(a)

541,175

468,555

453,530

518,253

444,507

3.1

442,014

379,736

362,258

425,937

2.9
(*)

483,786
(*)

415,466
114,589

397,886
100,690

463,668
150,000

Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……. 1,129,224
Auto & other motor veh. dealers . 1,042,231
New car dealers ……………….
(*)
Auto parts, acc. & tire stores……
(*)

3.8

99,161

88,819

91,272

4.1

92,223

81,797

83,954

(*)
(*)

70,030
7,022

Furniture & home furn. stores ……
Furniture stores …………………..
Home furnishings stores ………..

109,379

3.8

11,183

(*)
(*)

-3.2
(*)
(*)

352,266
(*)

Food & beverage stores…………….
Grocery stores …………………..
Beer, wine & liquor stores ………

44611

code

2016

2015

Nov.
(p)

Oct.
(r)

Dec.
(r)

Nov.
(r)

469,092

466,167

465,321

450,484

448,724

361,230

370,393

369,793

368,755

358,085

355,823

394,341
114,880

413,644
(*)

410,284
104,478

410,119
104,554

396,546
105,968

395,806
105,514

92,316

83,277

98,699

96,374

96,566

92,399

92,901

85,451

76,339

91,310

89,201

89,313

85,195

85,582

70,765
7,318

74,187
6,865

65,723
6,938

(NA)
(NA)

9,870

8,921

10,762

9,323

9,235

9,190

9,187

8,953

8,930

5,077
4,793

4,731
4,190

5,076
5,686

4,887
4,436

(NA)
(NA)

12,622

10,159

7,677

12,933

10,391

8,251

8,289

8,282

8,454

8,602

(*)
(*)

7,343
(S)

5,650
(S)

9,105
(S)

7,412
(S)

(*)
(*)

6,165
(S)

6,148
(S)

6,258
(S)

6,330
(S)

5.9

27,276

29,095

29,010

27,044

26,889

29,998

29,835

29,651

29,237

28,432

(*)

25,992

25,790

23,672

23,792

(*)

26,123

25,946

25,564

24,732

706,886

2.4

65,139

59,339

58,972

62,673

57,444

59,272

59,456

59,459

57,841

57,925

631,133
(*)

2.3
(*)

56,119
(*)

52,793
4,571

52,769
4,337

54,146
5,834

51,355
4,241

52,942
(*)

52,952
4,517

53,034
4,448

51,715
4,265

51,821
4,249

Health & personal care stores …….
Pharmacies & drug stores ………

335,757

7.4

32,007

27,832

27,944

30,387

25,713

28,501

28,429

28,341

26,844

26,673

(*)

23,287

23,706

25,180

21,637

(*)

23,811

23,801

22,583

22,468

447

Gasoline stations ……………………

404,777

-6.3

33,850

33,121

36,056

31,512

31,872

35,858

35,160

35,177

33,739

33,942

448

Clothing & clothing accessories
stores …………………………….…..

256,902

0.8

34,232

23,326

20,306

33,123

23,007

21,410

21,400

21,410

21,212

21,305

(*)

751

715

1,040

743

(*)

712

710

707

713

(*)
(*)
(*)

3,720
9,489
2,909

3,315
8,405
2,602

4,984
12,565
3,938

3,776
9,811
2,800

(*)
(NA)
(*)

3,382
(NA)
2,924

3,379
(NA)
2,882

3,515
(NA)
2,885

3,480
(NA)
2,834

Retail & food services,
total ……………………………….

441
4411, 4412
44111

4413
442
4421
4422
443
44311, 13
44312
444
4441
445
4451
4453
446

44811
44812
44814
4482

Electronics & appliance stores …… 101,186
Appl., T.V. & camera………………
(*)
Computer & software stores…….
(*)
Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers…………………….
Building mat. & sup. dealers ……

Men's clothing stores ……………
Women's clothing stores ………..
Family clothing stores ……………
Shoe stores ………………………

451

Sporting goods, hobby, book &
music stores…………………………

92,746

2.6

12,502

8,139

6,746

12,897

8,115

7,582

7,564

7,675

7,864

7,773

452

668,284

-0.8

75,127

60,520

54,221

76,391

61,397

55,081

55,352

55,295

56,676

56,111

155,471

-5.6

21,729

15,205

11,872

23,425

16,301

12,547

12,620

12,649

13,705

13,571

(*)

15,720

12,096

23,820

16,557

(*)

(NA)

(*)

45,315

42,349

52,966

45,096

(*)

42,732

42,646

42,971

42,540

45299

General merchandise stores……….
Department stores (ex. L.D.)……..
Department stores (incl. L.D.)5……
Other general merch. stores…. ..
Warehouse clubs &
supercenters………………….
All oth. gen. merch. stores……

(*)
(*)

39,102
6,213

36,554
5,795

45,266
7,700

39,039
6,057

(*)
(*)

36,854
5,878

36,775
5,871

37,164
5,807

36,760
5,780

453

Miscellaneous store retailers ……..

127,380

5.2

12,321

10,723

11,290

11,683

9,738

10,789

10,896

10,075

10,166

454

560,485

11.4

68,366

54,523

45,471

61,947

47,175

48,968

48,339

48,180

43,252

43,046

4541

Nonstore retailers …………………..
Elect. shopping & m/o houses ….

(*)

48,736

39,810

55,765

41,688

(*)

42,713

42,351

37,781

37,591

722

Food services & drinking places …

658,834

6.0

57,389

53,089

55,644

54,585

50,166

55,448

55,883

55,202

53,938

52,918

4521
4521
4529
45291

(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

(NA) Not available

(a) Advance estimate

(p) Preliminary estimate

(r) Revised estimate

(S) Estimate does not meet publication standards because of high sampling variability (coefficient of variation is greater than 30%), poor response quality
(total quantity response rate is less than 50%), or other concerns about the estimate's quality.
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics
(2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail
(3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.
(4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).
(5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, January 13, 2017. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on
confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

Table 2. Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)
1

Percent Change

NAICS
code

Kind of Business

Retail & food services,
total ………………………………..
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ….

Dec. 2016 Advance
from --

Nov. 2016 Preliminary
from --

Nov. 2016
(p)

Dec. 2015
(r)

Oct. 2016
(r)

Nov. 2015
(r)

0.6
0.2

4.1
3.4

0.2
0.3

3.9
3.9

Oct. 2016
through
Dec. 2016 from -Jul. 2016
Oct. 2015
through
through
Sep. 2016
Dec. 2015
1.6
1.4

4.1
3.8

Retail ………………………..……….

0.8

4.3

0.0

3.7

1.8

4.0

4411, 4412

Motor vehicle & parts dealers ………
Auto & other motor veh. dealers …

2.4
2.4

6.8
7.2

-0.2
-0.1

3.7
4.2

2.8
2.9

5.2
5.6

442

Furniture & home furn. stores ………

0.5

3.1

0.0

2.9

1.1

2.9

443

Electronics & appliance stores …….

-0.5

-2.4

0.1

-3.6

-1.8

-3.7

444

Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers………………………

0.5

2.6

0.6

4.9

1.9

4.3

445
4451

Food & beverage stores………………
Grocery stores …………………….

-0.3
0.0

2.5
2.4

0.0
-0.2

2.6
2.2

1.0
0.9

2.8
2.5

446

Health & personal care stores ………

0.3

6.2

0.3

6.6

0.4

6.6

447

Gasoline stations ……………………..

2.0

6.3

0.0

3.6

5.3

4.0

448

Clothing & clothing accessories
stores ……………………….…………

0.0

0.9

0.0

0.4

0.2

1.0

Sporting goods, hobby, book &
music stores………………………….

0.2

-3.6

-1.4

-2.7

-1.4

-2.1

4521

General merchandise stores…………
Department stores (ex. L.D.)……….

-0.5
-0.6

-2.8
-8.4

0.1
-0.2

-1.4
-7.0

-0.1
-2.0

-1.9
-7.6

453

Miscellaneous store retailers ………

-1.0

7.1

0.0

7.2

2.5

7.9

454

Nonstore retailers …………………….

1.3

13.2

0.3

12.3

2.9

12.8

722

Food services & drinking places …..

-0.8

2.8

1.2

5.6

0.8

4.4

441

451

452

(p) Preliminary estimate

(r) Revised estimate

(1) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, January 13, 2017. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability.
Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

Table 3. Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability and Revision to Advance Estimates Dec. 2016
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey and Monthly Retail Trade Survey)
Median standard error(1) for
Percent change

Median

NAICS Code

441
4411, 4412

442
443
444
445
4451
446
447
448
451
452
4521

453
454
722

Kind of Business

Retail & food services,
total ………………..………………….
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ..
Retail …..…………………………..
Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……..
Auto & other motor veh. dealers .
Furniture & home furn. stores…….
Electronics & appliance stores …..
Building material & garden eq. &….
supplies dealers……………………
Food & beverage stores…………….
Grocery stores …………………..
Health & personal care stores ……
Gasoline stations …………………..
Clothing & clothing accessories
stores ………………………………..
Sporting goods, hobby, book &
music stores………………………..
General merchandise stores……….
Department stores (ex. L.D.)……
Miscellaneous store retailers ……..
Nonstore retailers …………………..
Food services & drinking places ..

CV (1) for

Revision for monthto-month change (2)

Current Mo.

Previous Mo.
to

Previous Qtr.
to

Current Mo.
to same

Average

Median
absolute

(%)

Current Mo.

Current Qtr.

Mo. Last Yr.

revision

0.5
0.7
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.4
3.0

0.3
0.2
0.3
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.6

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.8
0.6

0.5
0.5
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.1

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.2

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3

2.1
1.4
1.5
2.3
1.8

0.9
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5

0.7
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.3

1.1
0.5
0.5
1.4
0.8

-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3

0.7
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5

2.3

0.6

0.4

0.7

0.0

0.2

2.2
0.2
0.0
3.1
1.6
2.3

0.9
0.0
0.0
2.4
0.5
1.0

0.8
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.4
0.7

1.2
0.1
0.0
2.6
1.0
1.6

0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.4

.
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading day variation.
Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.
(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the
same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most
recent 12 months.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, January 13, 2017. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error,
nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at .

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EST, THURSDAY, JANUARY 26, 2017

MONTHLY ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT, DECEMBER 2016
Release Number: CB17-16
January 26, 2017 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following international trade, wholesale
inventories, and retail inventories advance statistics for December 2016:
ADVANCE
INTERNATIONAL
TRADE: GOODS DEFICIT
DECEMBER
2016

$65.0 Billion

NOVEMBER
2016

$65.3 Billion

-0.5%°

ADVANCE
WHOLESALE
INVENTORIES
$601.1 Billion
$595.2 Billion (R)

+1.0%

ADVANCE
RETAIL
INVENTORIES
$608.3 Billion

0.0%*

$608.4 Billion (R)

Next release: February 28, 2017.
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
° Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. International Trade in Goods; Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey; Monthly Retail Trade Survey.

Advance International Trade in Goods
The international trade deficit was $65.0 billion in December, down $0.3 billion from $65.3 billion in
November. Exports of goods for December were $125.5 billion, $3.7 billion more than November exports.
Imports of goods for December were $190.5 billion, $3.4 billion more than November imports.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were
estimated at an end-of-month level of $601.1 billion, up 1.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from November 2016,
and were up 2.6 percent (±1.4 percent) from December 2015. The October 2016 to November 2016
percentage change was unrevised at up 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent).
Advance Retail Inventories
Retail inventories for December, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated
at an end-of-month level of $608.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* from November 2016, and
were up 3.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2015. The October 2016 to November 2016 percentage
change was revised from up 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).
The January 2017 Advance report is scheduled for release on February 28, 2017. View the full schedule in
the Economic Briefing Room: . The full text and tables of this
release can be found at .

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

GENERAL INFORMATION
Intention to Revise: Revisions to the Wholesale and Retail adjusted and not adjusted monthly estimates are
scheduled for release in March 2017 and April 2017, respectively. Estimates will be revised to reflect the
results of the 2015 Annual Wholesale and Annual Retail Trade Surveys. Revisions to the Monthly
Wholesale estimates will be reflected in the February 2017 Advance Economic Indicators release scheduled
for March 28, 2017. Revisions to the Monthly Retail estimates will be reflected in the March 2017 Advance
Economic Indicators release scheduled for April 27, 2017.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
International Trade in Goods
Goods (Census Basis)
Data for goods on a Census basis are compiled from the documents collected by the U.S. Customs and
Border Protection and reflect the movement of goods between foreign countries and the 50 states, the
District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and U.S. Foreign Trade Zones. They include
government and non-government shipments of goods and exclude shipments between the United States and
its territories and possessions; transactions with U.S. military, diplomatic, and consular installations abroad;
U.S. goods returned to the United States by its Armed Forces; personal and household effects of travelers;
and in-transit shipments. Data for U.S. exports to Canada are derived from import data compiled by Canada.
For more information on the data exchange and substitution please refer to the FT-900. The General Imports
value reflects the total arrival of merchandise from foreign countries that immediately enters consumption
channels, warehouses, or Foreign Trade Zones.
For imports, the value reported is the U.S. Customs and Border Protection appraised value of
merchandise—generally, the price paid for merchandise for export to the United States. Import duties,
freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to the United States are excluded.
Exports are valued at the free alongside ship value of merchandise at the U.S. port of export, based on the
transaction price including inland freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in placing the merchandise
alongside the carrier at the U.S. port of exportation.
Additional information on coverage and valuation are available in the Guide to Foreign Trade Statistics,
and , respectively.
Non Sampling Errors
Goods data are a complete enumeration of documents collected by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection
and are not subject to sampling errors. This report presents current month statistics which reflect nearly
complete coverage. Current month statistics reflecting complete coverage will be published in the upcoming
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (FT-900). Statistics for other months shown reflect

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

complete coverage and appear in the most recently published FT-900. Quality assurance procedures are
performed at every stage of collection, processing, and tabulation. However, the data are still subject to
several types of nonsampling errors. Information on nonsampling errors and other quality issues are
available in the Guide to Foreign Trade Statistics, .
The U.S. Census Bureau recommends that data users incorporate this information into their analyses, as
nonsampling errors could impact the conclusion drawn from the results. For a detailed discussion of errors
affecting the goods data, see U.S. Merchandise Trade Statistics: A Quality Profile (October 2014), available
at or from the Economic Indicators
Division, U.S. Census Bureau.
Adjustments for Seasonal and Trading-Day Variations
Goods data are presented on a seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted basis. Seasonally adjusted
(and/or trading day adjusted data) are produced using X-13ARIMA-SEATS software to develop monthly
adjustment factors. Goods data are initially classified under the Harmonized Commodity Description and
Coding System (Harmonized System), which is an internationally accepted standard for the commodity
classification of traded goods. Combining trade into approximately 140 export and 140 import end-use
categories makes it possible to examine goods according to their principal uses. These categories are used as
the basis for computing the seasonal and trading-day adjusted data. These adjusted data are then summed to
the six end-use aggregates for publication.
For more information, visit the seasonal adjustment section of the Guide to Foreign Trade here:

Retail and Wholesale Inventories
National estimates of end-of-month inventories are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey and
the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey. Additional information for each survey can be found at
and . The advance estimates contained in this
report are not incorporated into the full MRTS and MWTS time series.
The MRTS and MWTS samples consist of a stratified simple random sampling method of approximately
10,000 retail firms and 4,200 wholesale firms located in the United States. The retail and wholesale samples
include firms of all sizes and are updated on a quarterly basis to account for new retail and wholesale firms,
deaths, and other changes to the universe.
Data for nonresponding firms are imputed based on data for similar-sized firms classified in the same kind
of business. For surveyed Retail companies, approximately 44.9 percent provided data for this reporting
period resulting in a total quantity response rate of 47.5 percent. For surveyed Wholesale companies,
approximately 51.4 percent provided data for this reporting period resulting in a total quantity response rate
of 48.8 percent.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

MRTS estimates cover companies with one or more establishments that sell merchandise and related
services to final consumers. Nonemployers are represented in the retail estimates through benchmarking to
prior annual survey estimates that include nonemployer sales based on administrative records.
MWTS estimates cover wholesale merchants who sell goods on their own account and include such
businesses as wholesale merchants or jobbers, industrial distributors, exporters, and importers. Sales offices
and branches maintained by manufacturing, refining, or mining firms for the purpose of marketing their
products are not covered in this report. Also excluded is NAICS Industry Group 4251: Wholesale Electronic
Markets and Agents and Brokers.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the retail and wholesale estimates are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and
nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete
enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because
only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients
of variation are estimated measures of sampling variation.
The margin of sampling error gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If,
for example, the percentage change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent,
then the margin of sampling error is ±1.753 x 0.9 percent or ±1.6 percent, and the 90 percent confidence
interval is −0.4 percent to +2.8 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence
to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the
change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes are statistically significant unless otherwise noted.
For a monthly total, the estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the
estimated value ±1.753 x CV x (the estimated monthly total).
Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey
estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of
businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage,
or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality
control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
The U.S. Census Bureau recommends that individuals using retail and wholesale estimates incorporate this
information into their analyses, as sampling error and nonsampling error could affect the conclusions drawn
from the estimates.
Adjustments for Seasonal Variations
Concurrent seasonal adjustment is used to adjust the retail and wholesale inventories estimates for seasonal
variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the retail and wholesale
estimates of current and previous month inventories and for inventories estimates a year ago as well.
Data Availability
The Advance Economic Indicators Report is available at .
For archived versions of the Advance Economic Indicators Report please visit the Historical Data tab at the
following: .
America’s Economy Mobile App
The America’s Economy app provides real-time updates for 19 key economic indicators released from the
U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

-X* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
° Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable for this survey.
(R) Revised from the last published Monthly Retail Trade Report and Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Report

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016
-1-

Table 1. U.S. International Trade in Goods by Principal End-Use Category (1)
In millions of dollars. Details may not equal totals due to seasonal adjustment and rounding. (X) - Not applicable

Goods - Census Basis (2)
December
2016
(a)

Monthly
November
October
2016
2016

December
2015

December 2016/
November 2016

Percent change
November 2016/
October 2016

December 2016/
December 2015

Seasonally Adjusted
Balance
Exports
Foods, Feeds, & Beverages
Industrial Supplies (3)
Capital Goods
Automotive Vehicles, etc.
Consumer Goods
Other Goods
Imports
Foods, Feeds, & Beverages
Industrial Supplies (3)
Capital Goods
Automotive Vehicles, etc.
Consumer Goods
Other Goods

-65,000
125,524
10,929
35,654
44,987
12,114
16,350
5,491
190,524
11,309
40,733
50,390
30,854
49,383
7,855

-65,304
121,846
11,049
35,176
41,936
12,113
16,401
5,172
187,150
11,163
39,870
49,404
29,272
49,486
7,955

-61,761
122,861
11,244
33,713
43,708
12,413
15,920
5,863
184,622
10,935
37,624
49,535
29,132
49,571
7,824

-61,858
120,127
9,873
32,228
44,037
12,271
16,772
4,947
181,985
10,579
36,276
49,280
30,074
48,367
7,410

(X)
3.0
-1.1
1.4
7.3
0.0
-0.3
6.2
1.8
1.3
2.2
2.0
5.4
-0.2
-1.3

(X)
-0.8
-1.7
4.3
-4.1
-2.4
3.0
-11.8
1.4
2.1
6.0
-0.3
0.5
-0.2
1.7

(X)
4.5
10.7
10.6
2.2
-1.3
-2.5
11.0
4.7
6.9
12.3
2.3
2.6
2.1
6.0

-58,345
125,356
12,154
34,702
46,597
11,091
15,271
5,541
183,701
11,278
38,432
50,113
30,231
46,007
7,639

-67,873
123,475
13,778
34,065
41,383
12,629
16,428
5,192
191,348
11,135
38,457
50,930
30,559
52,425
7,841

-63,367
128,722
14,120
33,834
45,216
13,171
16,505
5,876
192,089
10,931
37,059
50,661
30,654
54,967
7,817

-59,786
119,939
10,842
31,496
45,589
11,368
15,653
4,991
179,725
10,831
35,019
50,374
29,751
46,381
7,369

(X)
1.5
-11.8
1.9
12.6
-12.2
-7.0
6.7
-4.0
1.3
-0.1
-1.6
-1.1
-12.2
-2.6

(X)
-4.1
-2.4
0.7
-8.5
-4.1
-0.5
-11.6
-0.4
1.9
3.8
0.5
-0.3
-4.6
0.3

(X)
4.5
12.1
10.2
2.2
-2.4
-2.4
11.0
2.2
4.1
9.7
-0.5
1.6
-0.8
3.7

Not Seasonally Adjusted
Balance
Exports
Foods, Feeds, & Beverages
Industrial Supplies (3)
Capital Goods
Automotive Vehicles, etc.
Consumer Goods
Other Goods
Imports
Foods, Feeds, & Beverages
Industrial Supplies (3)
Capital Goods
Automotive Vehicles, etc.
Consumer Goods
Other Goods
(a) Advance statistics
(1) For a listing of the detail included in each end-use category, see .
(2) Data are presented on a Census basis. The information needed to convert to a balance of payment basis is not available.
(3) Includes petroleum and petroleum products.
NOTES:
* Current month statistics reflect nearly complete coverage; current month statistics reflecting complete coverage will be published in the upcoming U.S.
International Trade in Goods and Services report (FT-900). Statistics for other months shown reflect complete coverage and appear in the most recently
published FT-900.
* For information on data sources, nonsampling errors, and definitions, see the explanatory notes in this release or at
.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016
-2-

Table 2. Levels and Percent Changes for Inventories
Inventories estimates are shown in millions of dollars. Estimates are based on data from the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey and the
Monthly Retail Trade Survey.

Inventories
December
2016
(a)

Adjusted

Monthly
November
2016
(r)

December
2015
(r)

December 2016/
November 2016

Percent change
November 2016/
October 2016

December 2016/
December 2015

Merchant wholesale trade, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods

601,082
361,670
239,412

595,155
358,164
236,991

585,886
357,894
227,992

1.0
1.0
1.0

1.0
1.1
0.9

2.6
1.1
5.0

Retail trade, total
Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)
Motor vehicle & parts dealers

608,338
394,947
213,391

608,367
393,992
214,375

588,561
390,408
198,153

0.0
0.2
-0.5

0.8
0.4
1.6

3.4
1.2
7.7

Merchant wholesale2 trade, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods

602,943
355,412
247,531

601,586
358,524
243,062

586,721
351,648
235,073

0.2
-0.9
1.8

1.2
0.7
1.8

2.8
1.1
5.3

Retail trade, total
Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)
Motor vehicle & parts dealers

601,688
385,631
216,057

640,789
422,538
218,251

581,931
380,982
200,949

-6.1
-8.7
-1.0

1.7
1.0
3.0

3.4
1.2
7.5

Not Adjusted

(a) Advance estimate
(r) Revised estimate
See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

Table 3. Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability
Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey and the Monthly Retail Trade
Survey.

Inventories
Monthly
Coefficient of Variation
December
November
December
2016
2016
2015
(a)
(r)
(r)

December 2016/
November 2016

Standard Error of
Percent Change
November 2016/
October 2016

December 2016/
December 2015

Merchant wholesale2 trade, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods

1.6
1.8
2.3

1.6
1.6
2.3

1.5
1.9
1.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.1
0.2
0.3

0.8
0.8
1.4

Retail trade, total
Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)
Motor vehicle & parts dealers

0.8
0.6
1.5

0.7
0.6
1.5

0.1
0.1
0.2

0.1
0.0
0.2

0.3
0.3
0.8

(a) Advance estimate
(r) Revised estimate
(1) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available not adjusted estimates
as input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table.

(2) The 2007 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers’ sales
branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers’ sales branches and offices. Note that
this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey
data products.

NOTES:
Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation. Additional information on confidentiality protection,
sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
for wholesale and at
for retail.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

FOR RELEASE AT 10:00 AM EST, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2017

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES, DECEMBER 2016
Release Number: CB17-21
February 15, 2017 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following new manufacturing and trade statistics
for December 2016:
Total Business Inventories / Sales Ratios: 2007 to 2016
1.55

BUSINESS INVENTORIES

1.50
1.45

DECEMBER 2016

$1,835.7 billion

+0.4%

NOVEMBER 2016
(revised)

$1,829.0 billion

+0.8%

Next release: March 15, 2017
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient
evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and
Sales, February 15, 2017.

1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manuf acturing and Trade Inv entories and Sales,February 15, 2017.
(Data adjusted f or seasonal, holiday and trading-day dif f erences but not f or price changes)

Sales
The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for
seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,356.0 billion, up 2.0 percent
(±0.2 percent) from November 2016 and was up 5.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from December 2015.
Inventories
Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated
at an end-of-month level of $1,835.7 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent) from November 2016 and were up
2.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2015.
Inventories/Sales Ratio
The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of December was 1.35.
The December 2015 ratio was 1.40.
Intention to Revise: Revisions to the Wholesale and Retail adjusted and not adjusted monthly estimates for
sales and inventories are scheduled for release in March 2017 and April 2017, respectively. Revised historical
data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) will be issued on May 18,
2017. Estimates will be revised to reflect the results of the 2015 Annual Wholesale, Annual Retail Trade
Surveys, and Annual Survey of Manufacturers. Revisions to the Wholesale estimates will be reflected in the
February 2017 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales (MTIS) release scheduled for April 14, 2017.
Revisions to the Retail estimates will be reflected in the March 2017 MTIS release scheduled for May 12, 2017.
Revisions to the Manufacturing estimates will be reflected in the April 2017 MTIS release scheduled for June
14, 2017.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

General Information
The January 2017 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report is scheduled for release on March 15,
2017. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room: .
EXPLANATORY NOTES
Reliability of Estimates
The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence
interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate.
These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up
0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent
to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of
reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly
press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because
the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the
industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors,
which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all
population units in the sample) response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct
measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection,
processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.
Description of the Survey
The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the
Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments,
Inventories, and Orders Survey. Data for the wholesale and manufacturing sectors are unrevised from the most
recent Monthly Wholesale Trade Report and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and
orders. Data from the Retail sector is revised and presented in more detail from the most recent Advance
Economic Indicators Report. For more information on these surveys see the links below:
, , and .
America’s Economy Mobile App
The America’s Economy app provides real-time updates for 19 key economic indicators from the Census
Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new users
and makes key statistics more accessible than ever before.
-X* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
(In millions of dollars)

Sales

Inventories

Inventories/Sales Ratios

Dec. 2016 Nov. 2016 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2016 Nov. 2016 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2016 Nov. 2016 Dec. 2015
(p)

(r)

(p)

(r)

(p)

(r)

Total business………… 1,355,990 1,328,817 1,288,683 1,835,742 1,828,971 1,800,368

1.35

1.38

1.40

Manufacturers²…………

Adjusted1

475,843

465,427

456,311

625,585

625,011

626,044

1.31

1.34

1.37

Retailers³………………… 415,242

410,174

396,893

609,010

608,687

588,432

1.47

1.48

Merchant wholesalers⁴… 464,905

453,216

435,479

601,147

595,273

585,892

1.29

1.31

1.35

Total business………… 1,420,220 1,325,047 1,366,947 1,814,744 1,868,169 1,776,966

1.28

1.41

1.30

Manufacturers²…………

Not Adjusted

466,743

454,305

451,055

609,286

625,743

608,314

1.31

1.38

1.35

Retailers³………………… 484,678

415,243

463,668

602,475

640,946

581,931

1.24

1.54

1.26

Merchant wholesalers⁴… 468,799

455,499

452,224

602,983

601,480

586,721

1.29

1.32

1.30

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on
our website at .
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, February 15, 2017.
Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers

Adjusted
Sales

Not Adjusted
Inventories

Sales

Inventories

Dec. 16/

Nov. 16/

Dec. 16/

Nov. 16/

Dec. 16/

Nov. 16/

Nov. 16

Oct. 16

Dec. 15

Nov. 16

Oct. 16

Dec. 15

Nov. 16

Oct. 16

Dec. 15

Nov. 16

Oct. 16

Dec. 15

Total business……………

2.0

0.3

5.2

0.4

0.8

2.0

7.2

-0.1

3.9

-2.9

0.9

2.1

Manufacturers2……………

2.2

0.3

4.3

0.1

0.5

-0.1

2.7

-3.3

3.5

-2.6

-0.1

0.2

Retailers3……………………

1.2

0.0

4.6

0.1

0.9

3.5

16.7

4.4

4.5

-6.0

1.7

3.5

Merchant wholesalers4…

2.6

0.5

6.8

1.0

2.6

2.9

-0.7

3.7

0.2

1.1

2.8

See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

Dec. 16/ Dec. 16/ Nov. 16/ Dec. 16/

Data adjusted for seasonality but not for price changes. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our website at
.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, February 15, 2017.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of Business
(In millions of dollars)

Inventories3

Sales
Kind of Business

NAICS
Code

Percent Change

Inventories/Sales

In Inventories

Ratios

Dec. 2016 Nov. 2016 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2016 Nov. 2016 Dec. 2015 Dec. 16/ Nov. 16/ Dec. 16/ Dec. 16 Nov. 16 Dec. 15
(p)

(r)

(p)

(r)

Nov. 16

Oct. 16

Dec. 15

(p)

(r)

415,242

410,174

396,893

609,010

608,687

588,432

0.1

0.9

3.5

1.47

1.48

Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)………………… 315,891

313,906

304,346

395,719

394,198

390,279

0.4

0.5

1.4

1.25

1.26

1.28

Adjusted

Retail trade, total……………………………………

441

Motor vehicle & parts dealers…………………………… 99,351

96,268

92,547

213,291

214,489

198,153

-0.6

1.6

7.6

2.15

2.23

2.14

442,3

Furniture,home furn., elect. & appl. stores………… 17,222

17,390

17,458

26,795

26,883

27,352

-0.3

0.1

-2.0

1.56

1.55

1.57

444

Building materials, garden equip & supplies………… 30,198

29,838

29,201

54,944

54,770

52,392

0.3

1.0

4.9

1.82

1.84

1.79

445

Food & beverage stores………………………………… 59,249

59,379

57,848

46,225

45,866

44,920

0.8

0.4

2.9

0.78

0.77

0.78

448

Clothing & clothing access. stores…………………… 21,481

21,458

21,224

54,209

54,050

53,765

0.3

0.8

2.52

2.53

452

General merchandise stores…………………………… 55,300

55,522

56,821

80,809

80,629

82,378

0.2

0.3

-1.9

1.46

1.45

Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.)…………………… 12,591

12,665

13,754

26,997

26,955

28,567

0.2

-0.1

-5.5

2.14

2.13

2.08

Retail trade, total…………………………………………484,678

415,243

463,668

602,475

640,946

581,931

-6.0

1.7

3.5

1.24

1.54

1.26

Total (excl. motor veh. & parts)……………………385,105

326,439

371,352

386,537

422,579

380,982

-8.5

1.0

1.5

1.00

1.29

1.03

4521

Not Adjusted

441

Motor vehicle & parts dealers…………………………… 99,573

88,804

92,316

215,938

218,367

200,949

-1.1

3.1

7.5

2.17

2.46

2.18

442,3

Furniture,home furn., elect. & appl. stores………… 23,334

19,876

23,695

27,036

30,754

27,626

-12.1

5.6

-2.1

1.16

1.55

1.17

444

Building materials, garden equip & supplies………… 27,522

29,053

27,044

52,032

53,072

49,615

-2.0

-0.8

4.9

1.89

1.83

445

Food & beverage stores………………………………… 65,048

59,290

62,673

46,867

48,071

45,558

-2.5

1.8

2.9

0.72

0.81

0.73

448

Clothing & clothing access. stores…………………… 34,333

23,438

33,123

51,119

58,320

50,647

-12.3

0.5

0.9

1.49

2.49

1.53

452

General merchandise stores…………………………… 75,135

60,535

76,391

77,439

91,171

78,928

-15.1

0.3

-1.9

1.03

1.51

1.03

Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.)…………………… 21,687

15,210

23,425

25,188

31,915

26,624

-21.1

-1.7

-5.4

1.16

2.10

1.14

4521

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.
1

Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and
inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are applied
to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance
estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
2
Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as
well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period.
3
Adjusted and not adjusted inventories for aggregate levels retail trade total, total excluding motor vehicles and parts, and motor vehicle and parts dealers are revised from the Advance
Economic Indicators Report.
4
The 2007 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in
this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly
Wholesale Trade Survey data products.

Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our website at
.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, February 15, 2017.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2017, AT 10:00 A.M. EST
Rebecca DeNale (Data Collection and Data Products): (301) 763-2713
Deanna Weidenhamer (Methodology): (301) 763-7186

CB17-22

QUARTERLY RETAIL E-COMMERCE SALES
4th QUARTER 2016
Intention to Revise E-commerce Estimates: Quarterly retail e-commerce estimates will be revised based on the results of
the 2015 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised not adjusted estimates and corresponding adjusted estimates are scheduled
for release on May 16, 2017 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for
the fourth quarter of 2016, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $102.7 billion, an increase of
1.9 percent (±0.9%) from the third quarter of 2016. Total retail sales for the fourth quarter of 2016 were estimated at
$1,235.5 billion, an increase of 1.9 percent (±0.2%) from the third quarter of 2016. The fourth quarter 2016 e-commerce
estimate increased 14.3 percent (±1.8%) from the fourth quarter of 2015 while total retail sales increased 4.1 percent
(±0.7%) in the same period. E-commerce sales in the fourth quarter of 2016 accounted for 8.3 percent of total sales.
On a not adjusted basis, the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the fourth quarter of 2016 totaled $123.6 billion,
an increase of 32.0 percent (±0.9%) from the third quarter of 2016. The fourth quarter 2016 e-commerce estimate
increased 14.3 percent (±1.8%) from the fourth quarter of 2015 while total retail sales increased 3.9 percent (±0.7 %) in
the same period. E-commerce sales in the fourth quarter of 2016 accounted for 9.5 percent of total sales.
Total e-commerce sales for 2016 were estimated at $394.9 billion, an increase of 15.1 percent (±1.8%) from 2015. Total
retail sales in 2016 increased 2.9 percent (±0.5%) from 2015. E-commerce sales in 2016 accounted for 8.1 percent of total
sales. E-commerce sales in 2015 accounted for 7.3 percent of total sales.

Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail E-commerce Sales as a Percent of Total Quarterly Retail Sales:
1st Quarter 2007 – 4th Quarter 2016
Percent of Total

The Quarterly Retail E-Commerce sales estimate for the fourth quarter of 2016 is scheduled for release on May 16, 2017 at 10:00 A.M.
EDT.
For information, including estimates from 4th quarter 1999 forward, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at
. For additional information about Census Bureau e-business measurement programs and plans visit
.
* The 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual

change is different from zero.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

Table 1.

Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce1

(Estimates are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey and administrative records. Unless otherwise
specified, all estimates are revised based on the 2014 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the final results from the 2012 Economic
Census.)
Percent Change
Percent Change
E-commerce
Retail Sales
From Prior Quarter
From Same Quarter
as a Percent
(millions of dollars)
A Year Ago
Quarter
of
Total
E-commerce
Total
E-commerce
Total
E-commerce
Total

Adjusted

4th quarter 2016(p)

1,235,535

102,674

8.3

1.9

4.1

14.3

3rd quarter 2016(r)

1,212,677

100,742

8.3

0.9

3.4

2.3

15.1

2nd quarter 2016

1,201,330

97,392

8.1

1.5

4.7

2.2

16.0

1st quarter 2016

1,183,172

93,046

7.9

-0.3

3.6

2.1

15.5

4th quarter 2015(r)

1,186,513

89,792

7.6

0.1

2.6

1.4

15.5

4th quarter 2016(p)

1,297,807

123,610

9.5

6.7

32.0

3.9

14.3

3rd quarter 2016(r)

1,216,071

93,609

7.7

0.1

2.5

2.3

15.5

2nd quarter 2016

1,215,431

91,290

7.5

8.8

5.7

2.2

15.9

1st quarter 2016

1,116,632

86,351

7.7

-10.6

-20.2

3.3

15.2

4th quarter 2015

1,249,081

108,175

8.7

5.1

33.5

1.7

14.8

Not Adjusted

(p) Preliminary estimate.
1 E-commerce

sales are sales of goods and services where the buyer places an order, or the price and terms of the sale are negotiated over an Internet, mobile
device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be
made online.
Estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. Total sales estimates are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving
holidays.

Note: Table 2 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample
design, and definitions, see http://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/how_surveys_are_collected.html.

Table 2.

Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability for Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales
Estimates: Total and E-commerce

(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey.)

Coefficient of
Quarter

Variation (CV)

SE for

SE for Percent Change

Standard Error
(SE) for

Percent Change

From Same Quarter

E-commerce

From Prior Quarter

A Year Ago

as a Percent
Total

E-commerce

of Total

Total

E-commerce

Total

E-commerce

4th quarter 2016(p)

0.5

1.4

0.1

0.5

0.4

1.0

3rd quarter 2016(r)

0.5

1.7

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.4

1.1

2nd quarter 2016

0.5

1.6

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.3

1.0

1st quarter 2016

0.4

1.7

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.2

1.0

4th quarter 2015

0.4

1.3

0.1

0.5

0.2

0.7

(p) Preliminary estimate. (r) Revised estimate. (Z) Estimate is less than 0.05%.
1Standard

errors may be larger than those previously published because the estimated totals used to produce the percent changes are derived from
different samples.
Note: Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on data not adjusted for seasonal variation, trading-day differences, or moving holidays, and are
used to make confidence statements about both adjusted and not adjusted estimates. For information on confidentiality protection,sampling error,
nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions, see http://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/how_surveys_are_collected.html.

Attachment 1 - Press Releases Dec 2016

Survey Description
Retail e-commerce sales are estimated from the same sample used for the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) to estimate
preliminary and final U.S. retail sales. Advance U.S. retail sales are estimated from a subsample of the MRTS sample that is not of
adequate size to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales.
A stratified simple random sampling method is used to select approximately 10,000 retail firms excluding food services
whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over two million retail firms. The
MRTS sample is probability based and represents all employer firms engaged in retail activities as defined by the North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS). Coverage includes all retailers whether or not they are engaged in e-commerce. Online
travel services, financial brokers and dealers, and ticket sales agencies are not classified as retail and are not included in
either the total retail or retail e-commerce sales estimates. Nonemployers are represented in the estimates through
benchmarking to prior annual survey estimates that include nonemployer sales based on administrative records. E-commerce sales
are included in the total monthly sales estimates.
The MRTS sample is updated on an ongoing basis to account for new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the
Internet), business deaths, and other changes to the retail business universe. Firms are asked each month to report e-commerce
sales separately. For each month of the quarter, data for nonresponding sampling units are imputed from responding sampling
units falling within the same kind of business and sales size category or based on historical performance of that company.
Responding firms account for approximately 73 percent of the e-commerce sales estimate and about 72 percent of the estimate of
U.S. retail sales for any quarter.
For each month of the quarter, estimates are obtained by summing weighted sales (either reported or imputed). The
monthly estimates are benchmarked to prior annual survey estimates. Estimates for the quarter are obtained by summing
the monthly benchmarked estimates. The estimate for the most recent quarter is a preliminary estimate. Therefore, the
estimate is subject to revision. Data users who create their own estimates using data from this report should cite the Census
Bureau as the source of the input data only.
Adjusted Estimates
This report publishes estimates that have been adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences,
but not for price changes. We used quarterly e-commerce sales estimates for 4th quarter 1999 to the current quarter as
input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program to derive the adjusted estimates. For sales, we derived quarterly adjusted
estimates by summing adjusted monthly sales estimates for each respective quarter. Seasonal adjustment of estimates is
an approximation based on current and past experiences.
The X-13ARIMA-SEATS software improves upon the X-12 ARIMA seasonal adjustment software by providing enhanced
diagnostics as well as incorporating an enhanced version of the Bank of Spain’s SEATS (Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time
Series) software, which uses an ARIMA model-based procedure instead of the X-11 filter-based approach to estimate
seasonal factors. The X-13ARIMA-SEATS and X-12 ARIMA software produce identical results when using X-13ARIMASEATS with the X-11 filter-based adjustments. The X-13ARIMA-SEATS software and additional information on the X13ARIMA-SEATS program may be found at http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.
Note that the retail estimates continue to be adjusted using the X-11 filter-based adjustment procedure.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the
population conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire population is
measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation, as given in Table 2 of this report, are estimated
measures of sampling variation.
The margin of error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If, for
example, the estimated percent change is -11.4% and its estimated standard error is 1.2%, then the margin of error is
±1.753 x 1.2% or 2.1%, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -13.5% to -9.3%. Confidence intervals are computed
based on the particular sample selected and canvassed. If one repeats the process of drawing all possible samples and
forming all corresponding confidence intervals, approximately 90 percent of these individual confidence intervals would
contain the estimate computed from a complete enumeration of all units on the sampling frame. If the confidence interval
contains 0%, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is
different from zero.
Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type
of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses with e-commerce
sales, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing.
Although not directly measured, precautionary steps are taken to minimize the effects of nonsampling error.

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