NCS_2017MailDesignTest_AttachmentA_StudyPlan

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American Community Survey Methods Panel Tests

NCS_2017MailDesignTest_AttachmentA_StudyPlan

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AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY (ACS)



April 17, 2017






ACS reseARCH & EVALUATION

ANALYSIS PLAN


2017 ACS Mail Design Test











Table of Contents





List of Tables


  1. Introduction


In 2015, the U.S. Census Bureau conducted the “2015 Summer Mandatory Messaging Test” (SMMT) to assess the impact on response, cost, and reliability of survey estimates of four sets of proposed design changes to the American Community Survey (ACS) mail materials, using the September 2015 ACS panel (Oliver et al., 2015). The proposed changes aimed to improve the way we communicate the importance and benefits of the ACS while updating the look and feel of the mail materials. Of the four designs evaluated, the Revised Design, which included the use of different logos on the envelopes and letters, the use of bold lettering and boxes to highlight elements of the material, and the addition of a box that read “Open Immediately” on the envelopes, proved to be the most promising. The Revised Design increased the self-response rates significantly and increased the precision of the survey estimates.

However, the Revised Design does not address the concern by some members of the public about the strong mandatory messages found throughout the ACS mail materials. Of the remaining candidate treatments, a variation of the Revised Design called the Softened Revised Design, where references to the mandatory nature of the survey were either removed or softened throughout the mail materials, offered the best compromise. Unfortunately, the Softened Revised Design lowered self-response (Oliver et al, 2015). Therefore, we resumed our research into mail designs that soften the mandatory messages, with the hope that the resulting self-response rates would be higher than that of the Softened Revised Design.

In June 2016, we presented the results of the SMMT and other related research (Clark, 2015a; Clark, 2015b; Barth, 2015, Heimel et al., 2016) as well as recommendations made by the White House’s Social and Behavioral Science Team (SBST), to the National Academies’ Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT) to obtain feedback from experts in the field. In July 2016, we held a series of meetings with Don Dillman, a leading expert in the field of survey methodology to assist us in redesigning the ACS mail materials to soften the mandatory messages while maximizing self-response. The result is two proposed experimental treatments that are derivatives of the Softened Revised Design – the Partial Redesign and the Full Redesign (Roberts, 2016).

For the “2017 ACS Mail Design Test,” we will evaluate these two new experimental treatments and a third –– a modification of the Softened Revised Design treatment. These experimental treatments are designed to increase awareness of the ACS through new messaging and an updated look-and-feel that increases respondent engagement and self-response while softening the tone of the mandatory requirement of the survey.

Modifications to the original Softened Revised Design include the placement of the phrase “our toll free number” before the toll free number; an updated confidentiality statement; and a new design for the reminder letter-outgoing envelope that incorporates the Reingold design recommendations (U.S. Census Bureau, 2015). The Partial Redesign and the Full Redesign treatments depart from the Softened Revised Design in the following ways:

  • Removal of the “Multilingual Brochure” to reduce the number of mail pieces. This information is now included on the enclosed letter.

  • The addition of a “Why We Ask” pamphlet, a color pamphlet designed to engage the recipient and provide summary information about the benefits of the ACS.

  • Design changes to the front page of the questionnaire to provide instruction information that would have been contained on the “Instruction Card.”

  • The use of a letter instead of a postcard for the final reminder to allow us to include login information on the letter to make responding easier. The accompanying envelope contains a new message, “Final Notice Respond Now” to make a strong push for response.

Unlike recent research (Clark, 2015a; Clark, 2015b; Barth, 2015; Oliver et al., 2016; Heimel et al., 2016), which focused on changes to specific mail materials, the Partial Redesign and Full Redesign treatments test holistic changes to the mailing strategy. The Full Redesign treatment differs from the Partial Redesign in that it varies communication content in the mail materials. Per Don Dillman’s recommendations, the messages in the letters are written in a “folksy,” deferential style that is “non-threatening” (see Dillman et al., 2014 to learn more about this approach).

Table 1 provides an overview of the differences among the four treatments (1 control and 3 experimental treatments). The data are organized by the five possible mailings that an address in sample could receive. The current production ACS mail contact strategy begins with an “initial mailing”. Prospective respondents are invited to complete the ACS online or wait for a paper questionnaire. About seven days later, these recipients receive a reminder letter. About fourteen days later, recipients who have not responded receive a “questionnaire package” containing a paper questionnaire. About four days later, these recipients receive a reminder postcard. About fourteen days later, the nonrespondents who are not eligible for the Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) operation (we do not have a telephone number for them) receive a final reminder postcard.

See Appendices A – D for facsimiles of the mail materials listed in Table 1. The Appendices are presented in the following order:

  • Appendix A: Current Production Treatment Materials (pages 1-12)

  • Appendix B: Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials (pages 1-12)

  • Appendix C: Partial Redesign Treatment Materials (pages 1-13)

  • Appendix D: Full Redesign Treatment Materials (pages 1-13)

Table 1. Description of Mail Materials for all Treatments in the 2017 Mail Design Test

Mailing

Classification

Current Production

(control)

Softened Revised Design

(experimental)

Partial Redesign

(experimental)

Full Redesign

(experimental)

Initial Mailing


Outgoing Envelope








Frequently Asked Questions Brochure


Letter




Instruction Card


Multilingual Information



Why We Ask” pamphlet



Your Response is Required by Law





11.5 x 6 (envelope size)


YES



No Callout Box




YES


Brochure Included



NO



Your Response is Important to Your Community


Open Immediately


11.5 x 6


NO



Callout Box


Softened Wording


YES


Brochure Included



NO



Your Response is Important to Your Community


Open Immediately


11.5 x 6


NO



Callout Box


Softened Wording


YES*


Included in the letter



YES



Your Response is Important to Your Community




9.5 x 4.375


NO



Callout Box


Wording Changes


NO


Included in the letter



YES

Reminder Letter






Outgoing Envelope

No message

No message

No message

No message


Letter








Wording changes

Questionnaire Package





Outgoing Envelope

Your Response is Required by Law

Your Response is Important to Your Community


Open Immediately


Your Response is Important to Your Community


Open Immediately

Your Response is Important to Your Community

Questionnaire

Current

Current

Design Changes**

Design Changes**


Frequently Asked Questions Brochure


Letter

YES



Current


NO



Softened Wording

NO



Softened Wording

NO



Wording Changes


Instruction Card

YES

YES

NO

NO


Return Envelope

YES

YES

YES

YES

Reminder Postcard

Postcard


Postcard


Softened Wording

Postcard


Softened Wording

Postcard


Wording changes

Final Reminder

(only nonrespondents not eligible for CATI)

Postcard



Postcard


Softened Wording

Letter***


Softened Wording


Final Notice Respond Now’ on envelope

Letter


Wording changes


Final Notice Respond Now’ on envelope

* Necessary because the letter did not have space to print both the respondent address and the log in information.

**The front page will include instruction information that would have been placed on the instruction card.

***The wording placement is slightly different compared to the Softened Revised Design Treatment postcard.


Because we provide more instruction information about the ACS on the first page of the paper questionnaire associated with the Partial and Full Redesign treatments, the “please print today’s date” question found on the first page of the current production questionnaire (see page 9 of Appendix A) has been moved to the second page of the revised questionnaire (see page 11 of Appendix E). This move could potentially affect analysts’ ability to calculate a person’s age when not provided.

When a person’s age is not provided and only the month and year of birth are provided (see question 4 of Appendix E), analysts calculate the missing age using the “please print today’s date” information. Historically, such cases are not common. However, these cases could be impacted by the move of the “please print today’s date” to the second page of the questionnaire. We will assess this change in this study.

  1. Research Questions and Methodology


2.1 Research Questions


The results of the “2017 ACS Mail Design Test” has the potential to improve the respondent experience by addressing two concerns: increasing respondent engagement and reducing respondent burden. It is our hope that if these concerns are satisfied, it will result in a higher self-response rate for either the Partial Redesign or Full Redesign treatment as compared to the Softened Revised Design. Table 2 presents the research questions that this test will answer at specified points in time.

Table 2. Research Questions for the Mail Design Test

Research Question

Treatment Comparison

When to Compare

What is the impact of placing the multilingual information on a letter instead of a brochure and including a “Why We Ask” pamphlet on self-response return rates?

Partial Redesign vs Softened Revised Design


  • Date Questionnaire Package is mailed

  • Date final reminder postcard/letter is mailed

  • Date CATI ends

What is the impact of placing the multilingual information on a letter instead of a brochure; including a “Why We Ask” pamphlet; and using “folksy” wording that conveys a deferential tone on self-response return rates?

Full Redesign vs Softened Revised Design


  • Date Questionnaire Package is mailed

  • Date final reminder postcard/letter is mailed

  • Date CATI ends

What is the impact of using “folksy” wording that expresses a deferential tone on self-response return rates?

Full Redesign vs Partial Redesign

  • Date Questionnaire Package is mailed

  • Date final reminder postcard/letter is mailed

  • Date CATI ends


Research Question

Treatment Comparison

When to Compare

What is the overall impact of the experimental treatment vs the control treatment on final response rates, data collection costs, and reliability of survey estimates?

All Experimental Treatments vs Current Production

  • Closeout

Research Question

Treatment Comparison

When to Compare

Is the item missing data rate for the month/day fields of the “please print today’s date” question the same?

Partial and Full Redesign Treatments vs. Current Production

  • Closeout


The self-response return rates for the treatment comparisons will be calculated at the following points in time:

  • Date the mail questionnaire package is mailed to households that did not respond online:

    • Rationale: Determine the effect of each treatment on self-response for households provided one mode for self-response (Internet) and a reminder letter (M1 mailing universe).

  • Date the final reminder postcard/letter is mailed to households that did not respond to the survey online or by mail:

    • Rationale: Determine the cumulative effect of each treatment on self-response for nonrespondent households that now have two choices for self-response (Internet and mail) and have received a reminder postcard (M2 mailing universe).

  • Through the Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) closeout:

    • Rationale: Determine the cumulative effect of each treatment on self-response for the households that have received a final reminder postcard or letter and still have not responded and (M3 mailing universe).

The final response rates will be calculated at closeout after all data collection operations, including the nonresponse operations, CATI and the Computer-Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) are completed.

    • Rationale: Determine the effect of each treatment on overall survey response and the impact on costs and survey estimates.

Self-response return rates, final response rates, data collection costs, and effect on survey estimates will play a role in evaluating the experimental treatments. See Section 2.2 for the formulae for the self-response return rates and the final response rates.

To assess if there is an impact of moving the date from the first page of the questionnaire to the second page, we will first answer the following question: Is the item missing data rate for the month/day fields of the “please print today’s date” question the same for the treatment and production questionnaires? The item missing data rates will be calculated for the control treatment, the Partial Redesign treatment, and the Full Redesign treatment. If the answer to the above question is “yes” then there is no impact. If there is an impact, we will provide the number of cases where the age calculation would be affected.

2.2 Methodology


2.2.1 Sample Design

The monthly ACS production sample of approximately 295,000 addresses is divided into 24 groups, where each group contains approximately 12,000 addresses. Each group is a representative subsample of the entire monthly sample and each monthly sample is representative of the entire yearly sample and the country. We will use two randomly selected groups for each treatment. Hence, each treatment will have a sample size of approximately 24,000 addresses. In total, approximately 96,000 addresses will be used for the four treatments, which includes the current production treatment group. The current production treatment will have the same mail materials as the rest of production, but will be sorted and mailed at the same time as the other treatment materials.

The sample size(s) are chosen so that we may conduct 90-percent confidence level hypothesis tests to determine if the differences between control and experimental treatment self-response return rates are greater than 1.25-percent.  In calculating our sample size, we assume that the survey achieves a 50-percent response rate and that our statistical test has a power value (discernment of this 1.25-percent difference) of 80-percent.

2.2.2 Self-Response Return Rates

Self-Response Return Rate

=


Number of mailable/deliverable sample addresses that provided a non-blank1 paper questionnaire via mail or TQA, OR a complete or sufficient partial Internet response2



*100

Total number of mailable/deliverable sample addresses3


Note: The numerator encompasses all possible response modes, including Telephone Questionnaire Assistance (TQA) (part of the mail mode), which is available throughout all phases of data collection. Depending upon the point in time though, direct response via paper questionnaire may not be possible.



2.2.3 Final Response Rates

Final = Response Return Rate



Number of the addresses that provided a complete or sufficient partial response

*100


Total number of mailable/deliverable sample addresses, excluding nonrespondent addresses that were not subsampled for CAPI, and addresses determined to be out-of-scope


Note: The numerator will be calculated across mode and by mode (Internet, mail, CATI, and CAPI).

2.2.4 Item Missing Data Rates

Item Missing Data Rate

=


Number of eligible housing units that did not provide a required response for the item


*100


Total number of eligible housing units required to provide a response to the item


2.2. 5 Standard Error of the Estimates

We will estimate the variances of the point estimates using the Successive Differences Replication (SDR) method with replicates – the standard method used in the ACS (see U.S. Census Bureau, 2014, Chapter 12). In calculating the self-response return rates and final response rates, we will use replicate base weights, which only account for sampling probabilities. We will calculate the variance for each rate and for the difference between rates using the formula below.

Where:

the estimate calculated using the rth replicate

the estimate calculated using the full sample



2.2.6 Effect of Response on Cost and Survey Estimates

In evaluating the three experimental treatments, it is not sufficient to only compare their self-response return rates and final response rates. A treatment’s data collection costs and effect on the survey estimates, if adopted, are also important. Past and recent research (Dillman, 1996; Barth, 2015; Oliver et al., 2016) has shown that treatments that soften or remove the mandatory language in the ACS reduce self-response. As a result, the CATI and CAPI workloads, which cost more per case to complete than self-response cases, increase.

For each experimental treatment, we will evaluate impacts under the following three scenarios:

  • Maintain the current sample size: this scenario will apply the results from this test to a full year of ACS sample to evaluate the effect on the cost and reliability of estimates of using the given experimental treatment methodology for an entire ACS data collection year.

  • Maintain current reliability: this scenario will use the results from this test to determine the initial sample size and cost necessary to maintain the reliability achieved using the current ACS methodology.

  • Maintain costs: this scenario applies the results from this test to determine how much the sample size would need to decrease or how much it could increase to collect the ACS data using the test strategies within the 2017 budget. The effect on reliability of the survey estimates will also be determined.

  1. Literature Review


Between October 2013 and November 2014, the U.S. Census Bureau collaborated with Reingold Inc. to research and propose design and messaging changes to the ACS mail materials that could potentially increase the ACS self-response rates (U.S. Census Bureau, 2015). The high-level recommendations from the report are:

  • Emphasize the Census brand in ACS mail materials.

  • Use visual design principles to draw attention to key messages and help respondents better navigate ACS material.

  • Use deadline-oriented messages to attract attention and create a sense of urgency.

  • Prioritize an official “governmental” appearance over a visually rich “marketing” approach.

  • Emphasize effective “mandatory” messaging.

  • Demonstrate benefits of ACS participation to local communities.

  • Draw a clearer connection between objectionable questions and real-world applications and benefits.

  • Streamline mail packages and individual materials.


Based on these and other recommendations, the ACS conducted five field tests in 2015 to improve the mail materials and messaging and simultaneously address respondent burden, respondent concerns about the perceived intrusiveness of the ACS, and self-response rates. A description of these five tests is provided below:

  • Paper Questionnaire Package Test: conducted March 2015 to examine ways to reduce the complexity of this package (Clark, 2015a).

  • Mail Contact Strategy Modification Test: conducted April 2015 to examine ways to streamline the mail materials (Clark, 2015b).

  • Envelope Mandatory Messaging Test: conducted May 2015 to study the impact of removing mandatory messages from the envelopes (Barth, 2015).

  • Summer Mandatory Messaging Test: conducted September 2015 to study the impact of removing or modifying the mandatory messages from the mail materials (Oliver et al., 2016).

  • Why We Ask: conducted November 2015 to study the impact of including a flyer in the paper questionnaire mailing package explaining why the ACS asks the questions that it does (Heimel et al., 2016).


In June 2016, we presented the results of these research as well as recommendations made by the Whitehouse’s Social and Behavioral Science Team (SBST), to the National Academies’ Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT) to obtain feedback from experts in the field (Plewes, 2016). In July 2016, we also held a series of meetings with Don Dillman who provided a critique of our current mail materials and messaging and 2015 research and offered suggestions for improvement. The result is two newly proposed mail treatments that are derivatives of the Softened Revised Design treatment from the “2015 Summer Mandatory Messaging Test” (Oliver et al., 2016) – the Partial Redesign and the Full Redesign. These two new treatments involve changes to the ACS mail materials and communications strategy based on social exchange theory. See Dillman (2014) for details.

  1. Potential Actions

The conclusions drawn from the “2017 ACS Mail Design Test” could result in new mail materials put into production, as well as revisions to the current materials.

  1. Major Schedule Tasks


Tasks (minimum required)

Planned Start

(mm/dd/yy)

Planned Completion (mm/dd/yy)

Author drafts REAP, obtains CR feedback, updates and distributes Final REAP



12/07/16



04/18/17

PM/Author conducts research activities

07/20/17

11/09/17

Author drafts initial report, obtains CR feedback, updates and obtains final report sign off by the CRs and Division Chief





11/13/17





05/09/18

Post report to the Internet

05/10/18

05/31/18


  1. References


Barth, D. (2015). “2015 Envelope Mandatory Messaging Test”. Washington, DC, U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved on February 10, 2017 from

http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2016/acs/2016_Barth_01.pdf


Clark, S. (2015a). “2015 Replacement Mail Questionnaire Package Test”. Washington, DC, U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved on March 23, 2017 from

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2015/acs/2015_Clark_02.pdf


Clark, S. (2015b). “2015 Mail Contact Strategy Modification Test”. Washington, DC, U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved on March 23, 2017 from

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2015/acs/2015_Clark_03.pdf


Dillman, D., Singer, E., Clark, J., & Treat, J. (1996). “Effects of Benefits

(Appeals, Mandatory Appeals, and Variations in Statements of Confidentiality) on Completion Rates for Census Questionnaires,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 60, 376-389.


Dillman, D., Smyth, J., & Christian, L. (2014). Internet, Phone, Mail, and Mixed-Mode Surveys: The Tailored Design Method (4th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.


Heimel, S., Barth, D., & Rabe, M. (2016). “Why We Ask” Mail Package Insert Test”. Washington, DC, U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved on February 21, 2017 from

http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2016/acs/2016_Heimel_01.pdf


Oliver, B., Risley, M., & Roberts, A. (2016). “2015 Summer Mandatory Messaging Test”. Washington DC, U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved on February 10, 2017 from

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2016/acs/2016_Oliver_01.pdf


Plewes, T.J. (2016).  “Reducing Response Burden in the American Community Survey”.  Proceedings of a Workshop at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Committee on National Statistics, Washington, DC, March 8-9, 2016. 


Roberts, A. (2016). “2017 ACS Mail Design Test”. Washington DC, U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved on February 10, 2017 from the “2017 Mail Design Test” folder located in the ACSO SharePoint site.


U.S. Census Bureau (2014). “American Community Survey Design and Methodology”. Retrieved on February 10, 2017 from

http://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/methodology/design_and_methodology/acs_design_methodology_ch12_2014.pdf


U.S. Census Bureau (2015). “2014 American Community Survey Messaging and Mail Package Assessment Research: Cumulative Findings Report”. Retrieved on February 10, 2017 from https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2014/acs/2014_Walker_02.pdf

























Appendix A: Current Production Treatment Materials


Initial Mailing – Outgoing Envelope

Initial Mailing - FAQ Brochure:


Current Production Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing - Letter


Current Production Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing - Instruction Card










Current Production Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing - Multilingual Brochure



Reminder Letter – Outgoing Envelope



Current Production Treatment Materials

Reminder Letter







Current Production Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Outgoing Envelope



Questionnaire Package – Return Envelope





Current Production Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Letter


Current Production Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Instruction Card










Current Production Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package– Page One of Questionnaire








Current Production Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package - FAQ Brochure:







Current Production Treatment Materials

Reminder Postcard

Current Production Treatment Materials

Final Reminder Postcard















Appendix B: Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials


Initial Mailing – Outgoing Envelope



















Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing – Letter

Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials



Initial Mailing – Instruction Card





Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials



Initial Mailing – Multilingual Brochure







Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials



Reminder Letter – Outgoing Envelope



Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials

Reminder Letter





Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Outgoing Envelope



Questionnaire Package – Return Envelope



Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Letter





Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Instruction Card










Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package - Page One of Questionnaire









Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials

Reminder Postcard










Softened Revised Design Treatment Materials

Final Reminder Postcard









Appendix C: Partial Redesign Treatment Materials


Initial Mailing – Outgoing Envelope




















Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing – Why We Ask Brochure (front)


Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing – Why We Ask Brochure (back)

Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing – Letter


Partial Redesign Treatment Materials


Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing – Instruction Card









Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Reminder Letter – Outgoing Envelope






















Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Reminder Letter



Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Outgoing Envelope



Questionnaire Package – Return Envelope




Partial Redesign Treatment Materials - DRAFT

Questionnaire Package – Letter



Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Page One of Questionnaire








Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Reminder Postcard



Final Reminder Letter – Outgoing Envelope



Partial Redesign Treatment Materials

Final Reminder Letter

Appendix D: Full Redesign Treatment Materials


Initial Mailing – Outgoing Envelope




















Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing – Why We Ask Brochure


Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing – Why We Ask Brochure (back)


Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Initial Mailing – Letter

Full Redesign Treatment Materials


Full Redesign Treatment Materials - DRAFT

Reminder Letter – Outgoing Envelope






















Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Reminder Letter

Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Outgoing Envelope



Questionnaire Package – Return Envelope



Full Redesign Treatment Materials - DRAFT

Questionnaire Package – Letter

Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Page One of Questionnaire








Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Questionnaire Package – Page Two of Questionnaire






Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Reminder Postcard




Final Reminder Letter – Outgoing Envelope

Full Redesign Treatment Materials

Final Reminder Letter

1 The paper form contains no data defined persons and no respondent-provided telephone number.

2 Respondent reaches the first question in the detailed person questions section for the first person in the household.

3 We will remove addresses where the initial mailing was returned by the postal service as undeliverable-as-addressed and for which we did not receive a response in any mode.


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