Final Pulication 6292

Publication 6292
Spring 2016

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States
2016 - 2023

Office of Research
Research, Applied Analytics and Statistics

Publication 6292 (revised 6-2016) is produced by the IRS Office of Research,
within the Research, Applied Analytics and Statistics organization.

Janice M. Hedemann
Director, Office of Research

Michael Sebastiani
Chief, Forecasting and Data Analysis

Andre Palmer
Team Leader, Forecasting

Questions or comments regarding these return forecasts or related matters can
be directed to the corresponding staff member listed below.

Corporations, Employee Plans,
Employment

(202) 803-9370

Brett Collins

Estate and Gift, Information
Returns, Political Organizations, Excise,
Exempt Organizations, Partnerships,
Fiduciary, Government Entity/Bonds

(202) 803-9363

Jeff Matsuo

Individual (Income Tax, Estimated Tax,
Extensions and Amended)

Andre Palmer
Michelle Chu
Jeff Matsuo

(202) 803-9368
(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9363

Other Comments or Questions

Michael Sebastiani
Andre Palmer

(202) 803-9155
(202) 803-9368

Forecasts Available Electronically 
Forecasts from the most recent edition of this publication are available from the Forms
and Pubs link (https://www.irs.gov/forms-pubs). IRS employees can access this
publication on the IRWeb intranet site by selecting the “Research” link, followed by
“Research, Analysis & Statistics (RAS)” and then “Projections and Forecasting
Publications.”

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States:
2016 – 2023

Publication 6292
Spring 2016 Update

Suggested Citation

Internal Revenue Service
Research, Applied Analytics and
Statistics Office of Research
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States:
2016 – 2023
Publication 6292 (Rev. 6-2016)
Washington, DC 20224

Table of Contents
(Spring 2016)

Staff Directory …………………………………………………………... Inside Front Cover

Forecasts Available Electronically …………………….……………… Inside Front Cover

Overview ……………………………………………………………………………….…

1

Data Sources and Projection Methodology ………………………………………...…

1

Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions ………………………………….……

1

Track Record of Projection Accuracy ………….. ……………………….….. ……….

2

Comments and Questions ………………………………………………………………

3

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns

to be Filed with IRS ………………………………………..….………………

4

Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by

Business Operating Division …………………………..………………….…

6

Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major

Return Categories ……..………………………………………………..……

7

Table Notes ………………………………………………………………….…………..

8

Other Projection Publications ………………………………………….. Inside Back Cover

Overview

The following spring 2016 edition of IRS Publication 6292 provides the most recent
revisions to the U.S. level projections of tax returns to be filed for fiscal years (FY) 2015
through 2023 by the major return categories, including selected detail by IRS business
operating divisions. Office of Research staff, within the IRS Research, Applied Analytics
and Statistics organization prepare these projections semi-annually to incorporate
changes in filing patterns, economic and demographic trends, legislative requirements,
and IRS administrative processes. The projections are based on the information
available as of early May 2016, including enacted tax law changes and confirmed
administrative plans. Legislative or administrative initiatives under consideration are
generally not used for projections due to the uncertain nature of their eventual outcome.

Data Sources and Projection Methodology

The reported actual values of returns filed in FY 2015 are based on returns processed
and recorded on the IRS master files. In cases where master file return counts were not
available, tallies of actual filings were supplied by program staff in the IRS operating
divisions.

Depending on the properties of each filing category, the forecasting methods were
selected to capture and extrapolate historical filing trends. In general, the projections
are computed for the calendar year of filing and converted to the corresponding fiscal
year based on the historical quarterly filing experience. These results are based on
statistical models such as regression models incorporating key economic and
demographic input variables provided by IHS Global Inc, time series techniques, growth
rates and historical ratio methods. The projection method used depends on the form
type, availability of historical data, and applicability of relevant economic and
demographic forecasts. Customers interested in obtaining more detail on forecasting
methodologies are welcome to contact the respective staff member listed on the inside
front cover.

Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions

A summary of the major trends and other significant factors embedded in the return
forecasts for this edition of Publication 6292 are noted below.

Trend in Grand Total Return Filings
As presented in Table 1, grand total return filings were 245.8 million in fiscal year 2015, an
increase of 1.4 percent over FY 2014. After FY 2015, grand total return filings are
projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent, reaching 268.4 million by FY
2023. Within the steady increase in the grand total projection is a rather pronounced
increase among selected e-file return volumes. In particular, electronic filings of forms
1065/B and 1120 series are expected to grow 6.5% and 4.6% annually in FY 2016 and at
an average annual rate of 3.4% and 2.0% by FY 2023, respectively.

Detail by Business Operating Division

Table 2 presents estimates of selected return filings by IRS “Business Operating
Divisions” (BODs). The selected returns include total individual income tax returns,
corporation income tax returns, partnership returns, employment returns, excise returns,
and exempt organization returns. As applicable, these volumes are broken out by their
operating division components: “Wage and Investment” (W&I), “Small Business/Self
Employed” (SB/SE), “Large Business and International” (LB&I) and “Tax
Exempt/Government Entities” (TE/GE). Also included are the projected total filings of
employee plans (EP) returns, including those processed by the Department of Labor,
which comprise major return filings by taxpayers served by the TE/GE operating division.

Track Record of Projection Accuracy

In an effort to measure the quality of our products and services, this section, along with
Table 3, provides a brief analysis of the accuracy of prior projections. Using four years
of actual data from 2012 through 2015, Table 3 presents the accuracy of our national
level projections by major return categories. This analysis covers only the major return
categories projected on a calendar year basis and serves as a general measure for
gauging the overall reliability of our U.S. level return projections.

The table presents two measures of projection accuracy; the mean absolute percent
error (MAPE) and the number of over-projections. The MAPE is computed as the
average percent projection error regardless of whether they were over- or underprojections over the four projection cycles. The number of over-projections can show
whether projections are consistently over- or under- projected. A value of two indicates
balanced forecasts over the four cycles. The table groups these two measures by time
horizon. The time horizon is determined by when the forecast was made and for what
future year. For example, a forecast for 2015 made in 2012 would be part of the “3years-ahead” time horizon.

2 

4

Type of Return

Table does not contain Non-Master File counts.
See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return."
Detail may not add to subtotal/total due to rounding.
Table continues on the next page.

Employment Tax, Total
Paper Employment Returns, Total
Electronic Employment Returns, Total
Forms 940 ,940-EZ and 940-PR, Total
Paper Forms 940, 940-EZ and 940-PR
Form 940 E-File/On-line/XML
Forms 941, 941-PR and 941-SS, Total
Paper 941, 941-PR/SS, Total
Form 941 E-File/On-line/XML
Forms 943, 943-PR and 943-SS, Total
Paper Forms 943, 943-PR and 943-SS
Electronic Forms 943, 943-PR and 943-SS
Forms 944, 944-PR and 944-SS, Total
Paper Forms 944, 944-PR and 944-SS
Electronic Form 944
Form 945
Paper Form 945
Electronic Form 945
Form CT-1
Notes:

30,152,202
19,607,562
10,544,640
5,750,512
3,738,271
2,012,241
24,010,276
15,494,699
8,515,577
197,279
195,462
1,817
119,887
106,243
13,644
72,472
71,111
1,361
1,776

36,343
237,706

Estate, Forms 706, 706NA/GS(D)/GS(T), Total
Gift, Form 709

Corporation Income Tax, Total
Paper Corporation Returns, Total
Electronic Corporation Returns, Total
Form 1120
Paper Form 1120
Electronic Form 1120
Form 1120-C
Form 1120-F
Paper Form 1120-F
Electronic Form 1120-F
Form 1120-H
Forms 1120-FSC/L/ND/PC/REIT/RIC/SF
Form 1120-S
Paper Form 1120-S
Electronic Form 1120-S
458,662
35,350

6,893,412
1,893,568
4,999,844
1,832,286
582,588
1,249,698
9,763
45,237
26,162
19,075
248,943
40,022
4,717,161
986,090
3,731,071

Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total
Paper Forms 1065/1065-B
Electronic Forms 1065/1065-B

Small Corporation Election, Form 2553
"REMIC" Income Tax, Form 1066

747,766
3,882,560
787,898
3,094,662

Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES

3,202,760
732,307
2,470,453

24,121,596
23,966,848
154,748

Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES, Total
Paper Form 1040-ES
Electronic (Credit Card) Form 1040-ES

Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total
Paper Form 1041
Electronic Form 1041

221,482,509
148,840,642
147,982,739
20,249,264
127,733,475
668,698
189,205
40,394

Individual Income Tax, Total
Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ, Total
Paper Forms 1040/1040-A/1040-EZ
Electronic Forms 1040/1040A/1040EZ
Forms 1040-NR/NR-EZ/C
Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
Electronic Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS

82,715,714
163,105,612

Actual - FY
2015
245,821,326

Total Primary Returns

Paper Grand Total
Electronic Grand Total

Grand Total

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns to be Filed with IRS

30,106,500
18,891,900
11,214,600
5,734,600
3,531,600
2,203,000
24,018,400
15,025,700
8,992,700
190,300
185,500
4,800
95,000
82,500
12,500
66,500
64,900
1,600
1,800

36,800
229,600

446,000
39,800

6,869,200
1,640,400
5,228,800
1,766,900
477,000
1,289,800
9,100
45,400
23,600
21,800
249,900
40,100
4,757,900
840,600
3,917,200

3,969,100
674,500
3,294,600

807,200

3,207,400
636,900
2,570,500

24,378,800
24,214,100
164,700

151,027,600
150,151,400
19,403,000
130,748,400
696,100
180,100
34,300

224,010,700

80,825,400
167,985,600

2016
248,811,100

30,143,800
18,427,300
11,716,500
5,748,700
3,431,300
2,317,400
24,065,400
14,686,200
9,379,200
185,300
179,700
5,600
79,900
67,400
12,500
62,800
61,000
1,800
1,800

37,700
224,000

449,600
40,700

6,908,800
1,506,800
5,402,000
1,734,600
415,400
1,319,200
9,100
46,400
22,300
24,100
252,400
41,300
4,825,000
766,300
4,058,600

4,060,100
604,200
3,455,900

868,100

3,247,400
582,600
2,664,700

24,631,900
24,456,700
175,200

153,030,600
152,145,500
18,065,800
134,079,700
712,800
172,400
30,300

226,607,400

78,903,000
172,962,600

2017
251,865,600

30,184,300
17,967,300
12,216,900
5,762,800
3,331,300
2,431,500
24,112,400
14,347,700
9,764,700
180,300
174,000
6,300
67,500
54,900
12,600
59,400
57,500
1,900
1,800

38,900
224,300

451,900
41,600

6,941,800
1,409,800
5,532,000
1,703,000
365,000
1,337,900
9,100
47,500
21,300
26,200
254,700
42,500
4,885,100
717,100
4,167,900

4,133,900
542,900
3,591,000

923,200

3,279,600
537,800
2,741,800

24,953,200
24,767,100
186,100

154,817,400
153,922,500
16,628,700
137,293,800
729,500
165,500
27,600

229,023,600

76,817,200
177,915,600

2018
254,732,800

30,227,100
17,512,200
12,714,800
5,777,000
3,232,100
2,544,800
24,159,400
14,011,000
10,148,400
175,600
168,600
6,900
57,000
44,400
12,600
56,400
54,300
2,100
1,700

40,100
226,100

453,300
42,600

6,969,000
1,339,800
5,629,100
1,671,900
323,500
1,348,400
9,100
48,500
20,500
28,100
256,900
43,700
4,938,900
686,200
4,252,700

4,196,000
489,500
3,706,400

973,000

3,301,000
498,100
2,802,900

25,224,200
25,027,400
196,800

156,606,500
155,701,400
15,318,700
140,382,600
746,100
159,000
25,700

231,358,900

74,883,900
182,634,700

Projected
2019
257,518,600

30,271,900
17,062,700
13,209,200
5,791,100
3,133,900
2,657,200
24,206,500
13,676,700
10,529,700
170,900
163,400
7,500
48,200
35,600
12,600
53,600
51,400
2,200
1,700

41,500
228,600

454,200
43,500

6,990,900
1,289,800
5,701,200
1,641,400
288,800
1,352,500
9,100
49,600
19,800
29,700
258,900
44,900
4,987,100
668,200
4,318,900

4,250,100
443,100
3,807,000

1,018,100

3,313,300
461,700
2,851,600

25,475,200
25,268,100
207,100

158,484,400
157,569,100
14,128,600
143,440,600
762,800
152,500
24,500

233,741,000

73,108,700
187,243,400

2020
260,352,100

44,200
235,200

455,200
45,300

7,021,700
1,224,200
5,797,500
1,582,000
234,700
1,347,200
9,100
51,700
19,000
32,700
262,600
47,300
5,069,000
651,500
4,417,600

4,345,000
367,500
3,977,500

1,095,800

3,323,600
397,000
2,926,600

26,021,700
25,794,100
227,600

161,949,600
161,013,800
11,968,500
149,045,300
796,100
139,700
23,200

238,215,900

69,944,800
195,790,100

2022
265,734,900

45,700
239,200

455,400
46,300

7,031,400
1,197,900
5,833,500
1,553,100
213,400
1,339,700
9,100
52,700
18,800
33,900
264,200
48,500
5,103,700
643,800
4,459,900

4,389,200
336,900
4,052,200

1,129,200

3,326,600
368,200
2,958,400

26,355,000
26,117,300
237,700

163,639,700
162,693,600
10,987,600
151,706,000
812,800
133,300
22,800

240,460,800

68,562,800
199,873,500

2023
268,436,300

30,366,700
30,416,200
16,182,700
15,753,300
14,184,000
14,662,900
5,819,300
5,833,500
2,941,500
2,847,800
2,877,800
2,985,600
24,300,500
24,347,500
13,017,900
12,694,400
11,282,600
11,653,100
161,900
157,600
153,300
148,600
8,600
9,100
34,400
29,000
21,800
16,400
12,600
12,600
48,800
46,800
46,400
44,300
2,400
2,500
1,700
1,700
Internal Revenue Service
Office of Research, Forecasting and Data Analysis
Spring 2016 Publication 6292

30,318,500
16,619,300
13,699,200
5,805,200
3,037,000
2,768,300
24,253,500
13,345,500
10,908,000
166,400
158,300
8,100
40,700
28,100
12,600
51,100
48,800
2,300
1,700

42,800
231,700

454,800
44,400

7,008,300
1,254,500
5,753,900
1,611,400
259,600
1,351,800
9,100
50,600
19,400
31,300
260,800
46,100
5,030,300
659,500
4,370,800

4,299,200
402,700
3,896,500

1,058,900

3,319,900
428,100
2,891,800

25,757,300
25,540,000
217,300

160,229,300
159,303,700
13,010,300
146,293,400
779,500
146,100
23,700

236,001,100

71,483,000
191,582,300

2021
263,065,300

5
29,285
24,338,817
3,652,753
13,060,530
5,245,868
7,814,662
9,567
468,780
6,506,228
1,862,771
4,643,457
640,959
311,695
329,264

Payment or Refund under Sec. 7519, Form 8752

Supplemental Documents, Total
Form 1040-X
Form 4868, Total
Paper Form 4868
Electronic Form 4868
Form 1120-X
Form 5558
Form 7004, Total
Paper Form 7004
Electronic Form 7004
Form 8868, Total
Paper Form 8868
Electronic Form 8868
Notes:
* Form 990-N is all electronic.
** Form 8871 is all electronic.
Table does not contain Non-Master File counts.
See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return."
Detail may not add to subtotal/total due to rounding.

121,239

19,677

1,014,211
4,105
205,329
204,485
844
25,688
770,117
446,761
323,356
8,972
6,850
2,122

9,937
4,662
4,626
36
2,306
2,969
693
2,276

49,820
3,075
8
10,619
26,824
8,482
433
136
243

8,860

1,576,802
627,729
949,073
323,106
114,784
208,322
269,607
157,120
112,487
577,311
111,218
60,265
50,953
185,161
2,380
108,019

Actual - FY
2015
43,679

Form 5500-EZ, One-Participant Retirement Plans

Excise Taxes re Employee Plans, Form 5330

Excise, Total
Form 11-C
Form 720
Paper Form 720
Electronic Form 720
Form 730
Form 2290
Paper Form 2290
Electronic Form 2290
Form 8849
Paper Form 8849
Electronic Form 8849

Political Organizations, Total
Form 1120-POL, Total
Paper Form 1120-POL
Electronic Form 1120-POL
Form 8871**
Form 8872, Total
Paper Form 8872
Electronic Form 8872

Government Entity/Bonds
Form 8038
Form 8038-B
Form 8038-CP
Form 8038-G
Form 8038-GC
Form 8038-T
Form 8038-TC
Form 8328

Form 1041-A

Exempt Organizations, Total
Paper Exempt Organizations, Total
Electronic Exempt Organizations, Total
Form 990, Total
Paper Form 990
Electronic Form 990
Form990-EZ
Paper Form 990-EZ
Electronic Form 990-EZ
Form 990-N*
Form 990-PF, Total
Paper Form 990-PF
Electronic Form 990-PF
Form 990-T
Form 4720
Form 5227

Type of Return
Withholding on Foreign Persons, Form 1042
45,800

24,800,400
3,587,400
13,379,700
5,401,000
7,978,700
10,600
475,300
6,694,000
1,707,700
4,986,300
653,400
289,500
364,000

28,200

119,800

19,700

1,001,000
3,900
202,200
201,300
1,000
23,600
762,500
397,900
364,700
8,700
6,200
2,500

10,400
4,500
4,400
0
2,600
3,300
900
2,400

49,900
2,800
0
12,600
25,400
8,400
400
100
200

8,900

1,609,200
581,700
1,027,500
315,000
90,600
224,400
254,600
132,700
121,900
625,500
111,300
55,600
55,700
195,300
2,400
105,000

2016

Table 1 (continued). Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns to be Filed with IRS

47,200

25,258,100
3,524,500
13,699,200
5,440,500
8,258,700
11,400
483,400
6,867,700
1,596,700
5,271,000
672,000
270,100
401,900

27,300

120,800

19,700

1,012,300
3,800
202,000
200,900
1,100
22,100
776,000
378,500
397,400
8,500
5,700
2,700

9,000
4,300
4,300
0
2,400
2,200
500
1,700

49,500
2,600
0
12,600
25,300
8,300
400
100
200

8,900

1,670,200
568,800
1,101,400
316,300
77,600
238,800
261,500
130,600
130,900
672,600
112,800
53,700
59,200
201,000
2,500
103,500

2017
48,600

25,709,100
3,464,100
14,018,900
5,248,300
8,770,600
12,000
491,400
7,032,800
1,517,200
5,515,700
689,900
250,100
439,800

26,400

121,100

19,700

1,022,500
3,700
201,900
200,700
1,200
20,700
788,100
365,100
423,000
8,200
5,200
3,000

10,100
4,200
4,200
0
2,600
3,300
900
2,400

49,200
2,400
0
12,600
25,300
8,200
400
100
200

8,900

1,727,000
558,900
1,168,100
316,300
66,400
250,000
269,400
130,600
138,800
717,100
114,100
51,900
62,200
205,100
2,500
102,400

2018

Projected
50,000

26,159,700
3,405,800
14,338,900
5,056,400
9,282,500
12,500
499,400
7,195,000
1,462,800
5,732,200
708,000
230,400
477,700

25,600

121,500

19,700

1,033,600
3,500
201,900
200,600
1,300
19,200
801,000
356,500
444,600
8,000
4,700
3,300

8,700
4,100
4,100
0
2,400
2,200
500
1,700

48,900
2,300
0
12,600
25,300
8,100
400
100
200

8,900

1,783,300
552,700
1,230,600
316,300
57,800
258,500
277,500
131,500
146,000
761,200
115,400
50,600
64,800
208,600
2,600
101,700

2019
51,400

26,611,100
3,349,600
14,659,100
4,864,700
9,794,400
12,800
507,300
7,356,200
1,427,900
5,928,200
726,100
210,600
515,500

24,700

121,800

19,700

1,044,200
3,400
201,900
200,500
1,400
17,700
813,400
349,800
463,600
7,700
4,200
3,600

9,900
4,000
3,900
100
2,600
3,300
900
2,400

48,700
2,100
0
12,600
25,300
8,100
400
100
200

8,900

1,839,800
549,400
1,290,400
316,300
51,300
265,000
285,700
133,000
152,700
805,500
116,700
49,500
67,200
211,700
2,600
101,200

2020
52,900

54,300

23,200

122,500

19,700

1,065,800
3,100
201,900
200,300
1,600
14,800
838,700
341,300
497,400
7,300
3,200
4,100

9,700
3,800
3,700
100
2,600
3,300
900
2,400

48,300
1,700
0
12,600
25,300
8,000
400
100
200

8,900

1,959,500
547,000
1,412,400
316,300
40,900
275,400
301,900
136,600
165,300
900,300
119,300
48,000
71,300
217,700
2,800
101,000

2022
55,700

22,400

122,900

19,700

1,076,700
3,000
201,900
200,200
1,700
13,300
851,400
337,700
513,800
7,000
2,700
4,400

8,200
3,600
3,600
100
2,400
2,200
500
1,700

48,100
1,500
0
12,600
25,300
8,000
400
100
200

8,900

2,024,400
546,700
1,477,700
316,300
36,100
280,300
310,100
138,500
171,600
952,600
120,600
47,400
73,200
220,700
2,800
101,300

2023

27,519,000
27,975,500
3,242,800
3,191,900
15,300,100
15,620,800
4,481,900
4,290,800
10,818,200
11,330,100
13,300
13,500
522,900
530,600
7,677,600
7,838,200
1,399,200
1,399,200
6,278,400
6,439,000
762,300
780,400
171,000
151,200
591,300
629,200
Internal Revenue Service
Office of Research, Forecasting and Data Analysis
Spring 2016 Publication 6292

27,064,200
3,295,300
14,979,500
4,673,200
10,306,300
13,100
515,200
7,517,000
1,407,900
6,109,000
744,200
190,800
553,400

24,000

122,200

19,700

1,055,100
3,300
201,900
200,400
1,500
16,300
826,200
345,300
480,900
7,500
3,700
3,800

8,500
3,900
3,800
100
2,400
2,200
500
1,700

48,500
1,900
0
12,600
25,300
8,000
400
100
200

8,900

1,896,300
548,900
1,347,400
316,300
46,800
269,600
293,800
135,000
158,800
849,700
118,000
48,700
69,300
214,800
2,700
101,000

2021

6
933,700
933,700

1,014,211
880,564
89,228
44,419
1,576,802
1,576,802
915,557
915,557

Excise, Total
Small Business/Self Employed
Large and Mid-Sized Business
Tax Exempt/Government Entities

Exempt Organization, Total
Tax Exempt/Government Entities

Note:
Detail may not add to total due to rounding.

Employee Plans, Forms 5500, 5500EZ, and 5500SF
Tax Exempt/Government Entities

1,609,200
1,609,200

30,152,202
27,397,359
723,937
2,030,906

Employment Tax, Total
Small Business/Self Employed
Large and Mid-Sized Business
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
1,001,000
870,400
88,000
42,600

30,106,500
27,319,500
759,700
2,027,300

3,969,100
3,787,100
181,600
500

3,882,560
3,704,484
177,617
459

Partnership Returns
Small Business/Self Employed
Large and Mid-Sized Business
Tax Exempt/Government Entities

6,869,200
6,679,300
176,300
13,600

150,151,400
46,849,700
103,301,700

2016

6,893,412
6,705,411
175,097
12,904

147,982,739
46,238,294
101,744,445

Actual - FY
2015

Corporation Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self Employed
Large and Mid-Sized Business
Tax Exempt/Government Entities

Individual Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self Employed
Wage and Investment

Type of Return/BOD

Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating Division (BOD)

954,200
954,200

1,670,200
1,670,200

1,012,300
882,300
88,400
41,600

30,143,800
27,346,800
769,900
2,027,100

4,060,100
3,873,900
185,700
500

6,908,800
6,714,300
180,900
13,600

152,145,500
47,450,500
104,695,000

2017

957,000
957,000

1,727,000
1,727,000

1,022,500
893,000
88,800
40,700

30,184,300
27,378,400
778,800
2,027,000

4,133,900
3,944,300
189,100
500

6,941,800
6,743,000
185,200
13,600

153,922,500
48,041,600
105,880,800

2018

Projected

959,900
959,900

1,783,300
1,783,300

1,033,600
904,600
89,300
39,700

30,227,100
27,413,200
786,800
2,027,100

4,196,000
4,003,500
192,000
500

6,969,000
6,766,100
189,400
13,500

155,701,400
48,624,100
107,077,200

2019

962,700
962,700

1,839,800
1,839,800

1,044,200
915,700
89,800
38,700

30,271,900
27,450,800
793,800
2,027,300

4,250,100
4,055,200
194,400
500

6,990,900
6,784,200
193,300
13,400

157,569,100
49,198,700
108,370,400

2020

968,300
968,300

1,959,500
1,959,500

1,065,800
938,300
90,700
36,800

30,366,700
27,532,900
805,700
2,028,100

4,345,000
4,145,700
198,800
500

7,021,700
6,807,600
200,800
13,300

161,013,800
50,327,100
110,686,700

2022

971,100
971,100

2,024,400
2,024,400

1,076,700
949,700
91,200
35,800

30,416,200
27,576,800
810,700
2,028,600

4,389,200
4,187,900
200,800
500

7,031,400
6,813,900
204,300
13,200

162,693,600
50,882,000
111,811,600

2023

Internal Revenue Service
Office of Research, Forecasting and Data Analysis
Spring 2016 Publication 6292

965,500
965,500

1,896,300
1,896,300

1,055,100
927,100
90,200
37,800

30,318,500
27,490,800
800,100
2,027,700

4,299,200
4,102,000
196,700
500

7,008,300
6,797,800
197,200
13,300

159,303,700
49,766,200
109,537,500

2021

Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Number of Overprojections
for the Four (4) Most Recent Projection Cycles
Projection Error on Forecasts for:
Item

Grand Total - Selected Returns *
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

Calendar Year
2015 Actual *
(thousands)

81,768

Grand Total - E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

161,395

3 Years
Ahead
N=4

4 Years
Ahead
N=4

5 Years
Ahead
N=4

1.18%
4

1.35%
4

1.68%
4

2.78%
4

3.75%
4

4.65%
4

11.42%
4

20.26%
4

29.38%
4

37.81%
4

2.96%
2

5.17%
1

9.16%
0

12.45%
0

15.56%
0

0.68%
3

0.73%
4

1.26%
4

2.36%
4

4.08%
4

3.65%
2

7.99%
4

16.48%
4

24.62%
4

33.57%
4

2.59%
2

4.12%
1

7.18%
0

9.80%
0

11.87%
0

1.12%
4

1.48%
4

1.39%
3

1.38%
3

0.97%
3

6.94%
4

14.88%
4

23.76%
4

31.97%
4

45.78%
4

1.28%
2

2.99%
1

5.82%
0

7.86%
0

10.63%
0

0.53%
1

2.51%
2

7.43%
2

14.26%
3

26.99%
4

2.87%
2

3.12%
1

4.14%
1

4.59%
1

8.50%
2

1.78%
2

4.65%
3

7.59%
3

12.20%
3

15.25%
4

2.48%
3

4.66%
3

7.60%
4

9.80%
4

12.35%
4

1.62%
2

1.70%
1

2.67%
1

3.10%
2

3.83%
3

3.36%
3

4.42%
2

5.71%
1

9.75%
1

10.01%
1

9.17%
1

12.72%
0

13.11%
0

8.71%
1

6.61%
2

220,769

Primary Total - Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

72,702

Primary Total - E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

148,067

Individual Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

2 Years
Ahead
N=4

243,163

Grand Total - Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

Total Primary - Selected Returns *
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

1 Year
Ahead
N=4

148,650

Individual Total - Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

20,037

Individual Total - E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

127,740

Individual Estimated Tax
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

23,983

Fiduciary Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

3,175

Partnership Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

3,863

Corporation Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

6,823

Employment Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

30,088

Exempt Organization Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

1,541

Excise Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

994

* Some actuals shown in this table may differ from official counts reported elsewhere
because they exclude certain return series only recently projected and whose
accuracy can not yet be evaluated.

7

Internal Revenue Service
Office of Research, Forecasting and Data Analysis
2016

Table Notes

• Projected volumes are rounded to the nearest hundredth, therefore counts of 49 or
fewer are rounded to zero. However, some forms can report zero filings because they
are associated with only selected areas, or because their filing options were just
established or recently eliminated.

• Actual and forecasted return counts for the major categories are based on IRS master
file processing, as recorded in the electronic versions of the “Report of Returns Posted to
the IRS Master Files.”

Notes below are grouped by applicable table.
Table 1:
• “Grand Total” is the sum of “Total Primary Returns” and “Supplemental Documents.”
The “Total Primary Returns” category is the sum of all forms shown on the tables,
excluding “Supplemental Documents.”

• “Individual Income Tax, Total” is the sum of paper and electronic Forms 1040, 1040-A,
1040-EZ, 1040-NR, 1040-NR-EZ, 1040-PR 1040-SS and 1040-C.

• Various return categories, such as Form 1040-ES (Individual Estimated Tax) and other
business and individual returns, include line items to account for alternative methods of
tax filing. The “paper only” components can be derived by subtracting the electronic
counts from their respective return totals.

• “Fiduciary, Form 1041” includes both paper and electronic Form 1041.

• “Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES” is the Estimated Income Tax for Estate and
Trust.

• “Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B” includes both paper and electronic Forms 1065 and
1065-B.

• “Corporation Income Tax, Total” includes Forms 1120 (paper and electronic), 1120-F
(paper and electronic), 1120-H, 1120-L, 1120-ND, 1120-PC, 1120-SF, 1120-FSC, 1120REIT, 1120-RIC, and 1120-S (paper and electronic). Form 1120-POL volumes are
reported separately under the forms for “Political Organizations.” Form 1120-IC-DISC is
not included in these corporation projections.

• “Form 1120-C” is the U.S. Income Tax Return for Cooperative Associations.

• “Form 2553” is the Election (to file Form 1120-S) by a Small Business Corporation.

8

• “Form 1066” is the U.S. Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) Income
Tax Return.

• “Estate” includes Forms 706, 706-NA, 706-GS(D), and 706-GS(T).

• “Gift, Form 709” is the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax
Return.

• “Employment Tax, Total” includes paper, and electronic Forms 940, 940- EZ, 940-PR,
941, 941-PR, 941-SS, 943, 943-PR, 943-SS, 944, 945 and CT-1. CT-2 is excluded since
the return counts were only available on the Non-Master File.

• “Form 1042” is the Annual Withholding Tax Return for U.S. Source Income of Foreign
Persons. This form is assigned to the International area. It is sometimes considered an
employment tax return, but listed separately here.

• “Exempt Organization, Total” includes Forms 990 (paper and electronic), 990-EZ
(paper and electronic), 990-N (only available electronically), 990-PF (paper and
electronic), 990-T, 4720, and 5227.

• “Form 1041-A” is the U.S. Information Return Trust Accumulation of Charitable
Amounts Return.

• “Government Entities/Bonds” includes Forms 8038, 8038CP, 8038G, 8038GC,
8038T, 8038TC, and 8328.

• “Political Organizations” includes both paper and electronic Forms 1120-POL, 8871 and
8872.

• “Excise, Total” includes Forms 11-C, 730, paper and electronic Forms 720, and 2290.

• “Form 5330” is the Return of Excise Taxes Related to Employee Benefit Plans.

• “Form 5500-EZ” is the Annual Return for One-Participant (Owners and Their Spouses)
Retirement Plans.

• “Form 8752” is the Required Payment or Refund Under Section 7519.

• “Supplemental Documents” consist mainly of applications for extensions of time to file
and amended tax returns, which include Forms 1040X, 4868 (both paper and electronic),
1120X, 5558, 7004 (both paper and electronic), and 8868 (both paper and electronic).

9

Table 2:

Individual filers classified as “Small Business/Self Employed” reflect those taxpayers
filing a Form 1040 return with a Schedule C, Schedule F, Schedule E and/or Form 2106
attached, or with mailing addresses or forms considered “International.” All other
individual filers are classified as “Wage and Investment.”

In general, corporation filers (Form 1120 series returns including Form 1120S) and
partnership filers are classified as “Large Business and International” if their reported
total assets are $10 million or more. Corporation and partnership returns with assets
below $10 million are generally classified as “Small Business/Self Employed.” However,
there are also some partnership and corporation returns classified as part of the “Tax
Exempt/Government Entities” operating division.

Non-profit organizations, pension plan filers, tribal authorities, and governmental units
comprise the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” classification.

“Employee Plans” returns include paper and electronic Forms 5500, 5500EZ and
5500SF. Counts by operating division in this table are based primarily upon the IRS
master file “BOD indicator.” This indicator is a single, point-in- time, taxpayer level
identifier (in contrast to a return-by-return identifier).

10

Other Projection Publications

IRS
Publication
Number

Title

Typical
Updates

Calendar Year Return Projections for the
United States and IRS Campuses

6186

Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns
by Major Processing Categories

6187

Calendar Year Projections of Information and
Withholding Documents for the United States
And IRS Campuses

6961

Calendar Year Return Projections by State

6149

Fall

Spring
Fall

Summer

Winter

These publications are available electronically as noted inside the front cover.
These publications may also be requested
(1) by phone at (202) 803-9155,
(2) by fax at (202) 803-9154, or
(3) by writing to the following address

Internal Revenue Service
Office of Research RAS:R
Attn: Chief, Forecasting and Data Analysis
1111 Constitution Avenue, NW, K-3100
Washington, DC 20224

Publication 6292 (Rev. 6-2016) Catalog Number 59069P Department of the Treasury Internal Revenue Service www.irs.gov