Sample M3 Advance Report

Appendix G - Sample Advance Report.pdf

Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey

Sample M3 Advance Report

OMB: 0607-0008

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FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2017

MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS,
INVENTORIES AND ORDERS SEPTEMBER 2017
Release Number: CB 17-173 M3-1 (17)-09
Notice: For information on the impact of recent hurricanes on the compilation of this report, please see the
Frequently Asked Questions document on our website.
October 25, 2017 — The U.S. Census Bureau announces the September advance report on manufacturers’
shipments, inventories and orders:

DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2016-2017
Seasonally Adjusted, Month-To-Month Percentage Change
7.0%

DURABLE GOODS – NEW ORDERS 

6.0%
5.0%

SEPTEMBER 2017 

$238.7 billion             +2.2%° 

AUGUST 2017  
(revised) 

$233.6 billion             +2.0%° 

 
 

4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%

Next release: November 22, 2017 
 
Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders.
°Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey. The Manufacturers'
Shipments, Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability
sample, so the sampling error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the
confidence intervals be computed. 

-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
% Change

Oct-16
6.1%

Nov-16
-4.6%

Dec-16
0.3%

Jan-17
0.3%

Feb-17
1.4%

Mar-17
2.4%

Apr-17
-0.8%

May-17
0.0%

Jun-17
6.4%

Jul-17
-6.8%

Aug-17
2.0%

Sep-17
2.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $5.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $238.7
billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed
a 2.0 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Excluding
defense, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months,
led the increase, $4.0 billion or 5.1 percent to $81.2 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up four of the last five months, increased $2.4
billion or 1.0 percent to $240.5 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent August increase. Transportation
equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $79.7 billion.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up following two consecutive monthly
decreases, increased $2.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $1,135.1 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged
August decrease. Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the
increase, $1.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $772.1 billion.
Data Inquiries 
Economic Indicators Division, Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch (M3) 
301‐763‐4832  
[email protected] 
 

Media Inquiries 
Public Information Office 
301‐763‐3030 
[email protected]
 

 
 

 

Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up fourteen of the last fifteen months, increased
$2.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $403.6 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent August increase. Transportation
equipment, up three consecutive months, led the increase, $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $130.8 billion.
Capital Goods
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September increased $4.3 billion or 6.1 percent to $74.9 billion.
Shipments increased $1.7 billion or 2.4 percent to $73.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.3 billion or
0.2 percent to $704.8 billion. Inventories increased $1.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $179.9 billion. Defense
new orders for capital goods in September increased $0.5 billion or 4.1 percent to $11.5 billion. Shipments
increased $0.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $10.6 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.7 percent to
$143.9 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $23.4 billion.
Revised August Data
Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $471.8
billion (revised from $471.7 billion); shipments, $476.3 billion (revised from $475.9 billion); unfilled
orders, $1,132.3 billion (revised from $1,132.6 billion) and total inventories, $655.9 billion (revised from
$655.6 billion).
Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on November 3, 2017,
at 10:00 a.m. EDT. The Advance Report on durable goods for October is scheduled for release on
November 22, 2017 at 8:30 a.m. EST. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing
Room:. The full text and tables of this release can be found at
.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude
data for semiconductor manufacturing.
“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or decrease.
Description of the survey
This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories,
and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. This
survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net
of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current
cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and
finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately 5,000 reporting
units that represent approximately 3,100 companies and provide an indication of month-to-month change for
Data Inquiries 
Economic Indicators Division, Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch (M3) 
301‐763‐4832  
[email protected] 
 

Media Inquiries 
Public Information Office 
301‐763‐3030 
[email protected]
 

 
 

 

the Manufacturing Sector. These reporting units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large
homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, which are combined into 65
publication levels due to the small monthly panel size. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the M3 panel effectively represent the monthto-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The companies for which shipments
data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent approximately 64 percent of the total
value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census, and these companies
include almost two-thirds of the manufacturing companies with $500 million or more in shipments in the
2012 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments data are currently reported in the M3 survey
represent approximately 57 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the
2012 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 panel differ from the results that would be obtained
from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability
sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured.
Nonsampling errors are attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate
the monthly change for establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large
companies to represent the month-to-month movement of all companies is another potential source. Any
corrections will be published in the full report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in
the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual
benchmark publication. Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site:
.
API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface (API) lets developers create custom apps to reach
new users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever
before.
www.census.gov/developers/.

Data Inquiries 
Economic Indicators Division, Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch (M3) 
301‐763‐4832  
[email protected] 
 

Media Inquiries 
Public Information Office 
301‐763‐3030 
[email protected]
 

 
 

 

2018 Release Dates for the M3 Survey
Survey month
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18

Advance Report
(8:30 a.m. release time)
Wed 10/25/2017
Wed 11/22/2017
Fri 12/22/2017
Fri 1/26/2018
Tue 2/27/2018
Fri 3/23/2018
Thu 4/26/2018
Fri 5/25/2018
Wed 6/27/2018
Thu 7/26/2018
Fri 8/24/2018
Thu 9/27/2018
Thu 10/25/2018
Wed 11/21/2018
Fri 12/21/2018

Full Report
(10:00 a.m. release time)
Fri 11/3/2017
Mon 12/4/2017
Fri 1/5/2018
Fri 2/2/2018
Tue 3/6/2018
Wed 4/4/2018
Thu 5/3/2018
Mon 6/4/2018
Tue 7/3/2018
Thu 8/2/2018
Thu 9/6/2018
Thu 10/4/2018
Fri 11/2/2018
Thu 12/6/2018
Not available at this time

Source:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/reports/pei_schedule_release_dates_2018_all_
v2.pdf

### 
 

Data Inquiries 
Economic Indicators Division, Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Branch (M3) 
301‐763‐4832  
[email protected] 
 

Media Inquiries 
Public Information Office 
301‐763‐3030 
[email protected]
 

 
 

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1
[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]
Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly

Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly

Percent Change

Year to Date

Item
Sep
2017

2

Aug
r
2017

Jul
2017

Aug Sep 2

Jul r
Aug

Jun Jul

Sep
2017 2

Aug
r
2017

Sep
2016

2017

2016

Percent
Change
2017/2016

DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments…………………………..
4
New Orders …………………………

240,532
238,695

238,141
233,641

236,492
228,981

1.0
2.2

0.7
2.0

0.1
-6.8

252,600
248,120

250,360
237,218

244,404
233,803

2,128,922
2,093,327

2,059,218
1,989,457

3.4
5.2

Excluding transportation:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders4…………………………

160,808
157,446

159,495
156,346

157,645
155,185

0.8
0.7

1.2
0.7

0.0
0.8

168,027
163,088

166,930
159,831

159,036
153,206

1,422,001
1,398,194

1,355,288
1,325,132

4.9
5.5

227,869
225,343

225,723
220,849

224,192
215,320

1.0
2.0

0.7
2.6

0.0
-7.8

238,643
233,338

237,994
226,924

231,251
220,280

2,020,370
1,987,167

1,957,661
1,891,408

3.2
5.1

Manufacturing with unfilled orders:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

169,570
172,331

167,512
167,459

167,231
164,050

1.2
2.9

0.2
2.1

0.5
-9.1

178,833
178,723

175,313
166,832

171,995
165,434

1,498,199
1,501,594

1,435,104
1,401,446

4.4
7.1

Primary metals:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

19,835
19,895

19,723
19,919

19,341
19,635

0.6
-0.1

2.0
1.4

0.3
0.8

19,986
19,274

21,012
20,729

18,042
17,382

176,737
177,431

159,984
159,867

10.5
11.0

Fabricated metal products:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

32,401
33,273

32,190
32,718

31,796
32,620

0.7
1.7

1.2
0.3

-0.4
0.7

33,587
33,793

34,747
34,365

31,326
29,965

287,489
294,164

268,231
269,278

7.2
9.2

Machinery:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

31,893
31,761

31,526
31,824

31,032
31,854

1.2
-0.2

1.6
-0.1

-0.1
0.2

32,546
31,527

31,811
31,934

30,685
29,832

280,306
284,573

270,219
267,680

3.7
6.3

Computers and electronic products :
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

27,315
23,323

27,108
22,947

26,901
22,550

0.8
1.6

0.8
1.8

1.1
2.4

30,350
27,317

27,297
21,474

28,678
25,513

237,485
200,926

227,080
195,325

4.6
2.9

Computers and related products:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

1,914
1,948

2,031
2,061

2,088
2,129

-5.8
-5.5

-2.7
-3.2

8.0
7.7

2,433
2,467

1,829
1,859

2,366
2,357

17,507
17,738

17,596
17,584

-0.5
0.9

Communications equipment:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

3,027
3,429

2,959
3,272

2,947
3,038

2.3
4.8

0.4
7.7

-0.7
-0.5

3,772
4,330

2,799
2,729

3,660
3,934

26,512
28,464

25,846
27,662

2.6
2.9

Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

10,143
10,040

10,040
10,053

9,993
9,885

1.0
-0.1

0.5
1.7

-1.6
1.9

10,742
10,474

10,604
10,480

10,626
10,778

90,526
90,722

89,018
91,017

1.7
-0.3

Transportation equipment:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

79,724
81,249

78,646
77,295

78,847
73,796

1.4
5.1

-0.3
4.7

0.1
-19.6

84,573
85,032

83,430
77,387

85,368
80,597

706,921
695,133

703,930
664,325

0.4
4.6

Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

54,537
54,645

54,562
54,608

53,197
53,104

0.0
0.1

2.6
2.8

-1.7
-2.1

56,366
56,525

59,437
59,584

57,146
57,043

489,324
490,209

485,529
484,166

0.8
1.2

Nondefense aircraft and parts:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

12,531
12,752

11,482
9,701

12,999
7,267

9.1
31.5

-11.7
33.5

8.0
-71.1

14,127
13,401

11,419
7,002

14,212
9,705

105,060
95,433

109,091
76,305

-3.7
25.1

Defense aircraft and parts:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

3,978
3,848

4,054
3,756

4,065
5,429

-1.9
2.4

-0.3
-30.8

-1.0
45.7

4,568
3,497

4,033
2,823

4,577
2,903

34,990
35,691

34,483
34,913

1.5
2.2

All other durable goods:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

39,221
39,154

38,908
38,885

38,582
38,641

0.8
0.7

0.8
0.6

0.1
0.2

40,816
40,703

41,459
40,849

39,679
39,736

349,458
350,378

340,756
341,965

2.6
2.5

Capital goods3:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

84,143
86,417

82,268
81,635

82,923
79,638

2.3
5.9

-0.8
2.5

2.2
-16.0

91,161
91,837

82,803
75,772

86,297
82,146

727,642
725,978

704,272
675,303

3.3
7.5

73,540
74,876

71,838
70,553

72,612
67,861

2.4
6.1

-1.1
4.0

2.0
-19.7

79,529
78,580

72,417
66,786

75,587
69,995

636,716
637,196

621,021
593,817

2.5
7.3

Shipments………………………

65,144

64,702

63,942

0.7

1.2

1.0

69,652

65,167

65,753

569,566

551,380

3.3

New Orders……………………..

65,935

65,083

64,258

1.3

1.3

1.3

69,656

63,644

65,116

576,013

554,985

3.8

Defense capital goods:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………

10,603
11,541

10,430
11,082

10,311
11,777

1.7
4.1

1.2
-5.9

3.2
15.3

11,632
13,257

10,386
8,986

10,710
12,151

90,926
88,782

83,251
81,486

9.2
9.0

Excluding defense:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders4…………………………

4

Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments…………………………..
New Orders…………………………
Excluding aircraft:

r

Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.

1

Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of
shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate,
as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.
2
Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of
coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, see
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.
3
The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other
machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers;
computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical
equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and
ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.
4
Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent changes for new
orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, September Advance Report, October 25, 2017. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at
.

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1
[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]
Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly

Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly

Percent Change

Item
Sep

Aug

2017 2

2017 r

Jul
2017

Aug -

Jul -

Sep 2

Aug r

Jun Jul

Sep

Aug

2017 2

2017 r

Sep
2016

Percent
Change
2017/
2016

DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

1,135,073
403,569

1,132,312
401,176

1,132,365
399,312

0.2
0.6

0.0
0.5

-0.3
0.5

1,126,137
402,318

1,126,247
404,594

1,110,279
388,903

1.4
3.4

362,958
272,750

361,722
271,203

360,424
269,506

0.3
0.6

0.4
0.6

0.5
0.4

359,846
271,827

360,415
274,244

344,759
258,688

4.4
5.1

955,998
376,007

953,926
373,496

954,353
371,822

0.2
0.7

0.0
0.5

-0.5
0.3

948,641
374,781

949,576
376,911

937,523
362,839

1.2
3.3

Manufacturing with unfilled orders:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

1,135,073
328,029

1,132,312
326,030

1,132,365
324,483

0.2
0.6

0.0
0.5

-0.3
0.4

1,126,137
327,375

1,126,247
329,039

1,110,279
317,223

1.4
3.2

Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

30,619
33,598

30,559
33,439

30,363
33,304

0.2
0.5

0.6
0.4

1.0
0.7

29,636
33,758

30,348
33,672

27,462
31,218

7.9
8.1

Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

80,174
50,373

79,302
50,058

78,774
49,745

1.1
0.6

0.7
0.6

1.1
0.8

79,934
50,223

79,728
50,227

74,939
47,730

6.7
5.2

Machinery:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

100,959
69,779

101,091
69,138

100,793
68,500

-0.1
0.9

0.3
0.9

0.8
0.1

99,916
69,691

100,935
70,038

96,386
65,792

3.7
5.9

Computers and electronic products4:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

118,599
45,087

117,993
44,887

117,707
44,636

0.5
0.4

0.2
0.6

0.0
0.3

118,339
44,590

117,002
45,918

115,177
43,020

2.7
3.6

Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

1,920
4,407

1,886
4,366

1,856
4,355

1.8
0.9

1.6
0.3

2.3
0.1

1,920
4,375

1,886
4,571

1,667
4,150

15.2
5.4

Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

27,840
4,554

27,438
4,648

27,125
4,644

1.5
-2.0

1.2
0.1

0.3
0.2

27,725
4,479

27,167
4,778

25,301
4,416

9.6
1.4

Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

22,221
17,817

22,324
17,731

22,311
17,640

-0.5
0.5

0.1
0.5

-0.5
0.0

21,833
17,636

22,101
18,065

20,841
16,899

4.8
4.4

Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

772,115
130,819

770,590
129,973

771,941
129,806

0.2
0.7

-0.2
0.1

-0.7
0.6

766,291
130,491

765,832
130,350

765,520
130,215

0.1
0.2

Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

23,931
35,008

23,823
34,704

23,777
34,773

0.5
0.9

0.2
-0.2

-0.4
1.2

23,785
34,919

23,626
35,068

22,948
34,893

3.6
0.1

Nondefense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

578,104
66,713

577,883
66,041

579,664
65,925

0.0
1.0

-0.3
0.2

-1.0
-0.5

574,152
66,342

574,878
65,862

577,507
67,611

-0.6
-1.9

Defense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

73,590
13,225

73,720
13,428

74,018
13,143

-0.2
-1.5

-0.4
2.2

1.9
3.3

72,101
13,266

73,172
13,469

67,514
11,831

6.8
12.1

All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

10,386
56,096

10,453
55,950

10,476
55,681

-0.6
0.3

-0.2
0.5

0.6
0.4

10,188
55,929

10,301
56,324

9,954
54,029

2.4
3.5

Capital goods3:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

848,676
203,291

846,402
202,016

847,035
200,851

0.3
0.6

-0.1
0.6

-0.4
0.3

842,513
202,479

841,837
203,972

831,303
196,411

1.3
3.1

Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

704,788
179,892

703,452
178,538

704,737
177,638

0.2
0.8

-0.2
0.5

-0.7
-0.1

699,169
179,146

700,118
180,532

691,732
175,160

1.1
2.3

Excluding aircraft:
Unfilled Orders………………..
Total Inventories……………….

227,742
124,666

226,951
123,817

226,570
123,206

0.3
0.7

0.2
0.5

0.1
0.1

226,012
124,276

226,008
126,053

220,269
118,945

2.6
4.5

Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..

143,888
23,399

142,950
23,478

142,298
23,213

0.7
-0.3

0.5
1.1

1.0
3.5

143,344
23,333

141,719
23,440

139,571
21,251

2.7
9.8

Excluding transportation:
Unfilled Orders4…………………….
Total Inventories…………………..
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders4………………………
Total Inventories…………………..

r

Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.
Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of
shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where
appropriate, as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.
2
Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error,
which includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey
design, methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.
3
The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery;
vending, laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material
handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment;
electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and
boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space
vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.
4
Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.
Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data.
1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, September Advance Report, October 25, 2017. Information on data sources and methodology can be
found on our website at .


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