Publication 6292

STATISTICS OF INCOME DIVISION
RESEARCH, APPLIED ANALYTICS, AND STATISTICS

Publication 6292

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States: 2018–2025

Spring 2018

w w w.i r s.g ov/st at i st i c s

Publication 6292 (revised 6-2018) is a product of the IRS Statistics of Income Division
within the Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics organization.

Department of the Treasury
Internal Revenue Service
David J. Kautter
Acting Commissioner
Jeffrey J. Tribiano
Deputy Commissioner for Operations Support
Benjamin D. Herndon
Chief Research and Analytics Officer
Barry W. Johnson
Director, Statistics of Income Division
Laura R. Rasmussen
Chief, Statistical Services Branch
Timothy S. Castle
Chief, Servicewide Support Section

Fiscal Year Return
Projections for
the United States:
2018–2025

Publication 6292
Spring 2018

Suggested Citation
Internal Revenue Service
Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics
Statistics of Income Division
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States
Publication 6292 (Rev. 6-2018)
Washington, D.C. 20224

Table of Contents
(Spring 2018)

Principal Contacts...................................................................................................................... iii
Online Availability of Forecasts................................................................................................... iii
Overview.....................................................................................................................................1
Data Sources and Projection Methodology.................................................................................1
Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions............................................................................1
Accuracy of Prior Projections......................................................................................................2
Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns

To Be Filed with IRS, 2018–2025.................................................................................3
Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by

Business Operating Division, 2018–2025.....................................................................5
Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major

Return Categories.........................................................................................................6
Table Notes.................................................................................................................................7
Other Projection Publications...........................................................................Inside Back Cover

(ii)

Principal Contacts
Questions or comments regarding these return forecasts or related matters can be directed to
the corresponding staff member listed below.
Business Returns

Jeff Matsuo
Yan Liu

(202) 803-9363
(202) 803-9357

Individual Returns (Estimated Tax, Extensions, and
Amended)

Michelle Chu
Andre Palmer

(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9368

Other Comments or Questions

Andre Palmer
Michelle Chu

(202) 803-9368
(202) 803-9369

Online Availability of Forecasts
Forecasts from the most recent edition of this publication may be found on the IRS Internet site.
The World Wide Web address is: www.irs.gov/statistics. From the Web site, select “All Topics” in
the “Products, Publications & Papers” section.

We thank our customers for their support as we continually seek to improve our products and
services wherever possible. We welcome customer feedback at any time. Comments and
suggestions regarding this publication can be directed to Timothy Castle, Chief, ­Servicewide
Support Section, at (202) 803-9106.

Barry W. Johnson
Director, Statistics of Income Division

(iii)

Overview
The Spring 2018 edition of IRS Publication 6292 provides the most recent revisions to the U.S.level projections of tax returns to be filed for Fiscal Years (FY) 2018 through 2025 by the major
return categories, including selected detail by IRS business operating divisions. Statistics of
Income staff within the IRS Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics organization prepare
these projections semiannually to incorporate changes in filing patterns, economic and demographic trends, legislative requirements, and IRS administrative processes. The projections are
based on the information available as of late April 2018, including enacted tax law changes and
confirmed administrative plans. Legislative or administrative initiatives under consideration are
generally not used for projections due to the uncertain nature of their eventual outcome.

Data Sources and Projection Methodology
The reported actual numbers of returns filed in FY 2017 are based on returns processed and
recorded on the IRS master files. In cases where master file return counts were not available,
tallies of actual filings were supplied by program staff in the IRS operating divisions.
Depending on the properties of each filing category, the forecasting methods were selected to
capture and extrapolate historical filing trends. In general, the projections are computed for the
calendar year of filing and converted to the corresponding fiscal year based on the historical
quarterly filing experience. These results are based on statistical models such as regression
models incorporating key economic and demographic input variables provided by IHS Global
Inc., time series techniques, growth rates, and historical ratio methods. The projection method
used depends on the form type, availability of historical data, and applicability of relevant economic and demographic forecasts. Customers interested in obtaining more detail on forecasting
methodologies are invited to contact the appropriate staff member listed under the Principal
Contacts.

Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions
Summaries of the major trends and other significant factors embedded in the return forecasts for
this edition of Publication 6292 are provided below:
Trend in Grand Total Return Filings
As presented in Table 1, grand total return filings were 247.8 million in Fiscal Year 2017, an
increase of 0.3 percent over FY 2016. After FY 2017, grand total return filings are projected to
grow at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent, reaching 264.7 million by FY 2025. The paper
grand total return filings were 74.7 million in Fiscal Year 2017, a decrease of 4.1 percent over FY
2016. The electronic grand total return filings were 173.1 million in Fiscal Year 2017, an increase
of 2.4 percent over FY 2016. After FY 2017, electronic grand total return filings are projected to
grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent.

(1)

Detail by Business Operating Division
Table 2 presents estimates of selected return filings by IRS “Business Operating Divisions”
(BODs). The selected returns include total individual income tax returns, corporation income
tax returns, partnership returns, employment returns, excise returns, and exempt organization
returns. As applicable, these volumes are broken out by their operating division components:
“Wage and Investment” (W&I), “Small Business/Self-Employed” (SB/SE), “Large Business and
International” (LB&I), and “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” (TE/GE). Also included are the
projected total filings of employee plan (EP) returns, including those processed by the Department of Labor, which comprise major return filings by taxpayers served by the TE/GE operating
division.
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted on December 22, 2017, changed the way tax is calculated
for both individual and business tax return filers. Most of the changes affecting the individual tax
and business return filers became effective January 2018. While some changes sunset at the
end of 2025, others are permanent. Highlights of the new tax law changes include revised business expense deductions, increase in the standard deduction, removed personal exemptions,
changes to the tax rates and brackets, increase in the child tax credit, and limited or discontinued
certain deductions. These changes are expected to impact the future return volume of certain
individual and business form types. At the time this update was being developed, some language in the new law was still under review and regulations were being developed. Based on the
information available as of late April 2018, adjustments were made to the forecasted volumes
of certain business returns to account for some of the changes that impact business returns.
For instance, the estate tax and generation-skipping transfer taxes are among the many areas
impacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The estimates developed in this update reflect the marginal effects of the changes to the estate tax exclusion amount described in the enacted tax law.
Final regulations and developments will continue to be monitored and additional adjustments will
be considered for future updates.

Accuracy of Prior Projections
In an effort to measure the quality of our products and services, this section, along with Table 3,
provides a brief analysis of the accuracy of prior projections. Using 4 years of actual data from
2014 through 2017, Table 3 presents the accuracy of our national-level projections by major
return categories. This analysis covers only the major return categories projected on a calendar-year basis and serves as a general measure for approximating the overall reliability of our
U.S.-level return projections.
The table presents two measures of projection accuracy: the mean absolute percent error
(MAPE) and the number of overprojections. The MAPE is computed as the average percentage
projection error regardless of whether the projections were over or under actual filings in each of
the four projection cycles. The number of overprojections can show whether projections are consistently over or underprojected. A value of “2” indicates balanced forecasts over the four cycles.
The table groups these two measures by time horizon. The time horizon is determined based on
the year a forecast was made and the year projected. For example, a forecast for 2016 made in
2013 would be part of the “3-years-ahead” time horizon.
(2)

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2018–2025
Type of Return
Grand Total

Actual—
FY 2017

Projected
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

247,807,099

250,470,800

251,640,600

253,527,300

255,693,700

257,968,000

260,194,100

262,418,300

74,669,681

71,974,300

69,052,000

66,629,200

64,522,600

62,562,700

60,720,700

58,958,900

57,252,900

173,137,418

178,496,500

182,588,600

186,898,200

191,171,100

195,405,300

199,473,400

203,459,400

207,408,300

Total Primary Returns

221,685,473

223,080,700

223,489,700

224,709,300

226,256,000

227,936,300

229,582,700

231,235,500

232,911,700

Individual Income Tax, Total

150,786,286

152,106,500

152,891,600

154,232,900

155,764,400

157,405,000

158,983,400

160,545,900

162,120,700

Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ, Total

149,837,784

151,146,300

151,915,700

153,241,100

154,756,800

156,381,600

157,944,100

159,490,700

161,049,600

Paper Forms 1040/1040-A/1040-EZ

18,332,975

17,420,300

16,627,400

15,929,000

15,300,000

14,715,300

14,160,500

13,625,200

13,103,100

131,504,809

133,726,100

135,288,300

137,312,200

139,456,800

141,666,200

143,783,600

145,865,400

147,946,500

Paper Grand Total
Electronic Grand Total

Electronic Forms 1040/1040-A/1040-EZ
Forms 1040-NR/NR-EZ/C

264,661,200

769,328

789,800

812,100

834,400

856,600

878,900

901,100

923,400

945,600

Electronic Form 1040-NR

95,499

215,400

342,600

427,700

494,600

545,300

583,900

614,600

640,500

Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS

179,174

170,400

163,800

157,400

151,000

144,600

138,200

131,800

125,500

41,635

41,600

41,600

41,600

41,600

41,600

41,600

41,600

41,600

22,230,026

21,928,600

21,262,000

20,827,000

20,515,200

20,217,300

19,945,000

19,688,500

19,443,300

22,043,898

21,672,400

20,981,100

20,525,700

20,196,700

19,884,500

19,600,400

19,334,400

19,081,800

186,128

256,300

280,900

301,300

318,400

332,800

344,600

354,100

361,500

2,994,547

3,107,300

3,100,400

3,095,600

3,092,200

3,089,800

3,088,100

3,086,900

3,086,100

Electronic Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES, Total
Paper Form 1040-ES
Electronic (Credit Card) Form 1040-ES
Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total
Paper Form 1041
Electronic Form 1041
Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES
Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total
Paper Forms 1065/1065-B

567,008

493,700

449,600

415,300

385,700

359,100

334,200

310,400

287,200

2,427,539

2,613,600

2,650,800

2,680,300

2,706,500

2,730,700

2,753,900

2,776,500

2,798,900

552,691

553,900

554,300

554,300

554,300

554,300

554,300

554,300

554,300

4,046,325

4,130,700

4,222,700

4,314,700

4,406,600

4,498,600

4,590,500

4,682,500

4,774,500

599,908

524,200

482,500

451,700

429,900

415,100

405,900

401,100

400,000

Electronic Forms 1065/1065-B

3,446,417

3,606,500

3,740,200

3,862,900

3,976,700

4,083,500

4,184,700

4,281,400

4,374,500

Corporation Income Tax, Total

6,841,274

6,971,300

7,033,100

7,109,800

7,194,600

7,284,200

7,376,600

7,470,800

7,566,200

Paper Corporation Returns, Total

1,541,118

1,387,900

1,307,200

1,248,800

1,204,300

1,169,000

1,140,100

1,115,800

1,094,800

Electronic Corporation Returns, Total

5,300,156

5,583,400

5,725,800

5,861,000

5,990,400

6,115,200

6,236,500

6,355,000

6,471,500

Form 1120, Total

1,649,386

1,700,900

1,677,200

1,658,100

1,640,400

1,623,100

1,606,000

1,588,900

1,571,900

450,297

378,200

333,000

299,500

272,300

248,600

227,300

207,300

188,300

1,199,089

1,322,700

1,344,200

1,358,600

1,368,100

1,374,500

1,378,800

1,381,600

1,383,500

Paper Form 1120
Electronic Form 1120
Form 1120-C

8,888

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

Form 1120-F

44,864

48,800

49,900

51,000

52,100

53,200

54,300

55,300

56,400

Paper Form 1120-F

22,770

22,500

22,100

21,800

21,600

21,400

21,300

21,100

21,000

Electronic Form 1120-F

22,094

26,300

27,800

29,200

30,500

31,700

33,000

34,200

35,400

252,959

258,100

261,500

265,100

268,500

271,900

275,200

278,500

281,700

Form 1120-H
Forms 1120-FSC/L/ND/PC/REIT/RIC/SF
Form 1120-S, Total
Paper Form 1120-S
Electronic Form 1120-S
Small Corporation Election, Form 2553

42,471

45,000

46,800

48,500

50,100

51,700

53,100

54,600

56,100

4,842,706

4,909,200

4,988,300

5,077,800

5,174,200

5,275,000

5,378,700

5,484,200

5,590,900

763,733

674,800

634,400

604,500

582,400

566,100

554,000

545,000

538,300

4,078,973

4,234,400

4,353,800

4,473,300

4,591,800

4,708,900

4,824,700

4,939,200

5,052,500

478,129

474,100

481,300

488,600

495,800

503,100

510,300

517,600

524,900

"REMIC" Income Tax, Form 1066

47,356

42,700

43,700

44,600

45,500

46,400

47,200

48,000

48,800

Estate, Forms 706, 706NA/GS(D)/GS(T), Total

34,340

33,300

31,700

28,100

26,200

24,600

23,400

22,300

21,600

244,900

243,500

245,100

246,700

248,300

249,900

251,600

253,200

254,800

Gift, Form 709
Employment Tax, Total

30,631,305

30,644,600

30,732,400

30,827,400

30,925,900

31,026,500

31,128,200

31,230,700

31,334,000

Paper Employment Returns, Total

17,971,715

17,158,600

16,476,100

15,874,500

15,325,800

14,812,600

14,323,700

13,852,000

13,392,700

Electronic Employment Returns, Total

12,659,590

13,486,000

14,256,400

14,952,900

15,600,100

16,213,900

16,804,500

17,378,800

17,941,300

5,895,625

5,913,200

5,934,100

5,952,800

5,970,800

5,988,700

6,006,600

6,024,400

6,042,300

Paper Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR

3,478,870

3,323,100

3,163,100

3,011,800

2,869,500

2,735,200

2,608,100

2,487,000

2,371,300

Form 940 E-File/Online/XML

2,416,755

2,590,100

2,771,000

2,940,900

3,101,300

3,253,500

3,398,500

3,537,400

3,671,000

24,399,956

24,417,800

24,498,300

24,586,700

24,678,200

24,770,800

24,863,800

24,956,900

25,050,100

Paper 941, 941-PR/SS, Total

14,172,811

13,540,600

13,034,700

12,599,300

12,206,400

11,839,600

11,488,900

11,148,400

10,814,200

Form 941 E-File/Online/XML

10,227,145

10,877,300

11,463,600

11,987,400

12,471,800

12,931,200

13,374,800

13,808,500

14,235,900

190,102

183,700

180,600

177,800

175,300

172,900

170,600

168,400

166,200

183,210

175,300

170,300

166,000

162,300

158,900

155,900

153,200

150,600

6,892

8,500

10,200

11,800

13,000

14,000

14,700

15,200

15,600

80,952

69,000

61,800

55,600

50,100

45,200

41,000

37,300

34,000

74,042

61,200

53,100

45,900

39,500

33,700

28,500

23,800

19,600

6,910

7,800

8,700

9,700

10,600

11,600

12,500

13,500

14,400

62,841

59,100

55,800

52,700

49,800

47,000

44,400

41,900

39,500

60,953

56,700

53,100

49,700

46,400

43,400

40,500

37,700

35,200

Electronic Form 945

1,888

2,500

2,800

3,100

3,400

3,600

3,900

4,100

4,400

Form CT-1
Footnotes at end of table.

1,829

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR, Total

Forms 941, 941-PR, and 941-SS, Total

Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS, Total
Paper Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Electronic Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS, Total
Paper Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS
Electronic Form 944
Form 945, Total
Paper Form 945

(3)

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2018–2025—Continued
Type of Return
Withholding on Foreign Persons, Form 1042
Exempt Organizations, Total
Paper Exempt Organizations, Total
Electronic Exempt Organizations, Total
Form 990, Total
Paper Form 990
Electronic Form 990
Form 990-EZ, Total

Projected

Actual—
FY 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

49,296

51,400

52,600

53,700

54,800

55,800

56,900

58,000

59,100

1,525,627

1,563,200

1,606,700

1,649,500

1,693,500

1,737,500

1,782,000

1,826,600

1,871,600

514,098

480,500

467,100

455,100

444,400

434,900

426,500

419,000

412,400

1,011,529

1,082,700

1,139,700

1,194,400

1,249,100

1,302,600

1,355,500

1,407,600

1,459,100

310,344

310,600

310,900

311,200

311,400

311,700

312,000

312,300

312,500

81,955

68,200

63,700

59,500

55,800

52,400

49,300

46,500

44,000

228,389

242,400

247,200

251,600

255,700

259,300

262,700

265,700

268,500
240,400

243,451

241,000

240,500

240,400

240,400

240,400

240,400

240,400

Paper Form 990-EZ

122,681

110,800

106,900

103,300

99,900

96,800

93,900

91,200

88,800

Electronic Form 990-EZ

120,770

130,200

133,600

137,200

140,500

143,600

146,500

149,200

151,600

Form 990-N*

604,318

645,900

691,300

735,000

779,600

823,800

868,100

912,400

956,700

Form 990-PF, Total

109,513

111,000

112,100

113,400

114,600

115,900

117,100

118,300

119,500

Paper Form 990-PF

51,461

46,800

44,600

42,800

41,300

40,000

38,900

38,000

37,200

Electronic Form 990-PF

58,052

64,200

67,500

70,600

73,300

75,900

78,200

80,300

82,300

154,784

154,800

154,800

154,800

154,800

154,800

154,800

154,800

154,800

Form 990-T
Form 4720

2,347

2,300

2,400

2,400

2,400

2,500

2,500

2,500

2,500

Form 5227

100,870

97,600

94,700

92,300

90,200

88,500

87,100

85,900

85,000

Form 1041-A
Government Entity/Bonds
Form 8038

7,383

7,500

7,500

7,500

7,500

7,500

7,500

7,500

7,500

47,236

47,200

47,200

47,000

46,900

46,700

46,500

46,300

46,200

3,043

2,800

2,700

2,700

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

Form 8038-CP

10,713

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

Form 8038-G

24,762

24,900

25,100

25,100

25,100

25,100

25,100

25,100

25,100

7,966

8,000

8,000

7,900

7,800

7,700

7,600

7,500

7,400

Form 8038-T

377

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

Form 8038-TC

174

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

Form 8328

201

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

10,660

11,300

9,600

11,100

9,500

11,000

9,300

10,900

9,200

4,258

4,200

4,000

3,900

3,700

3,600

3,500

3,300

3,200

4,227

4,100

4,000

3,800

3,700

3,600

3,400

3,300

3,200

31

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Form 8871**

3,542

3,900

3,500

3,900

3,700

4,100

3,800

4,300

4,000

Form 8872, Total

2,860

3,300

2,000

3,300

2,000

3,300

2,000

3,300

2,000

599

700

500

700

500

700

500

700

500

2,261

2,600

1,500

2,600

1,500

2,600

1,500

2,600

1,500

Excise, Total

1,006,474

1,017,600

1,027,300

1,035,900

1,045,200

1,054,000

1,063,200

1,072,100

1,081,200

Form 11-C

3,845

3,500

3,200

2,900

2,700

2,400

2,100

1,900

1,600

190,663

187,800

184,900

181,900

179,000

176,100

173,200

170,300

167,400

189,492

186,500

183,500

180,400

177,400

174,400

171,300

168,300

165,300

1,171

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,900

2,000

2,100

22,878

21,700

21,000

20,300

19,500

18,800

18,100

17,400

16,700

Form 8038-GC

Political Organizations, Total
Form 1120-POL, Total
Paper Form 1120-POL
Electronic Form 1120-POL

Paper Form 8872
Electronic Form 8872

Form 720, Total
Paper Form 720
Electronic Form 720
Form 730

780,678

796,000

809,700

822,100

835,400

848,100

861,100

874,000

887,000

Paper Form 2290

284,397

238,400

212,100

198,400

192,200

189,900

189,800

191,000

193,000

Electronic Form 2290

496,281

557,600

597,600

623,700

643,200

658,200

671,300

682,900

694,000

8,410

8,600

8,600

8,600

8,600

8,600

8,600

8,600

8,600

Paper Form 8849

5,060

5,000

4,700

4,500

4,200

3,900

3,600

3,400

3,100

Electronic Form 8849

3,350

3,600

3,900

4,100

4,400

4,700

4,900

5,200

5,500

20,101

20,000

19,900

19,700

19,600

19,400

19,200

19,100

18,900

Form 5500-EZ, One-Participant Retirement Plans

104,572

100,100

95,600

91,100

86,600

82,100

77,700

73,200

68,700

Payment or Refund Under Sec. 7519, Form 8752

26,945

25,800

25,000

24,100

23,300

22,500

21,800

21,000

20,200

26,121,626

27,390,100

28,150,800

28,818,000

29,437,700

30,031,700

30,611,400

31,182,800

31,749,500

Form 2290, Total

Form 8849, Total

Excise Taxes re Employee Plans, Form 5330

Supplemental Documents, Total
Form 1040-X
Form 4868, Total

3,475,221

3,974,600

4,076,700

4,178,700

4,280,700

4,382,700

4,484,600

4,586,500

4,688,400

14,025,744

14,296,000

14,612,500

14,928,900

15,245,400

15,561,900

15,878,400

16,194,900

16,511,300

Paper Form 4868

4,265,810

3,782,000

3,311,700

2,814,800

2,314,900

1,811,800

1,305,400

795,500

282,000

Electronic Form 4868

9,759,934

10,513,900

11,300,800

12,114,200

12,930,500

13,750,100

14,573,000

15,399,400

16,229,400

Form 1120-X
Form 5558
Form 7004, Total

11,557

11,900

12,100

12,300

12,500

12,800

13,100

13,400

13,700

499,686

516,100

533,100

550,100

567,100

584,000

601,000

618,000

635,000

7,558,387

8,022,500

8,316,600

8,517,100

8,670,100

8,797,500

8,910,500

9,015,400

9,115,600

Paper Form 7004

1,676,286

1,550,800

1,451,700

1,370,500

1,303,900

1,249,400

1,204,700

1,168,200

1,138,200

Electronic Form 7004

5,882,101

6,471,700

6,864,800

7,146,600

7,366,200

7,548,100

7,705,800

7,847,200

7,977,300

551,031

568,900

599,900

630,800

661,800

692,700

723,700

754,600

785,500

235,586

238,600

251,100

263,600

276,200

288,700

301,300

313,800

326,400

Electronic Form 8868
315,445
330,400
348,800
367,200
* Form 990-N is all electronic.
** Form 8871 is all electronic.
NOTES: Table does not contain non-master File counts. See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return."
Detail may not add to subtotal/total due to rounding.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Spring 2018 Publication 6292.

385,600

404,000

422,400

440,800

459,200

Form 8868, Total
Paper Form 8868

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Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating Division (BOD), 2018–2025
Type of Return/BOD
Individual Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
Wage and Investment

Actual—
FY 2017
149,837,784

Projected
2018

2019

151,146,300

2020

151,915,700

2021

153,241,100

2022

154,756,800

2023

156,381,600

2024

157,944,100

2025

159,490,700

161,049,600

47,092,265

47,530,600

47,920,300

48,537,800

49,316,800

50,031,400

50,736,500

51,426,500

52,122,300

102,745,519

103,615,700

103,995,300

104,703,300

105,440,000

106,350,200

107,207,500

108,064,200

108,927,300

6,841,274

6,971,300

7,033,100

7,109,800

7,194,600

7,284,200

7,376,600

7,470,800

7,566,200

Small Business/Self-Employed

6,667,296

6,791,400

6,851,300

6,925,800

7,008,400

7,095,700

7,185,900

7,277,900

7,371,000

Large and Mid-Sized Business

164,028

169,500

171,500

173,600

175,900

178,100

180,400

182,700

185,000

9,950

10,400

10,400

10,300

10,300

10,300

10,300

10,200

10,200

4,046,325

4,130,700

4,222,700

4,314,700

4,406,600

4,498,600

4,590,500

4,682,500

4,774,500

Small Business/Self-Employed

3,846,966

3,927,200

4,014,600

4,102,100

4,189,500

4,276,900

4,364,400

4,451,800

4,539,200

Large and Mid-Sized Business

198,931

203,100

207,600

212,100

216,600

221,200

225,700

230,200

234,700

428

400

400

500

500

500

500

500

500

30,631,305

30,644,600

30,732,400

30,827,400

30,925,900

31,026,500

31,128,200

31,230,700

31,334,000

Small Business/Self-Employed

27,848,264

27,862,500

27,943,500

28,030,800

28,121,200

28,213,300

28,306,400

28,400,200

28,494,500

Large and Mid-Sized Business

759,192

759,400

761,300

763,300

765,500

767,700

769,900

772,200

774,400

2,023,849

2,022,800

2,027,700

2,033,300

2,039,300

2,045,500

2,051,900

2,058,400

2,065,000

Corporation Income Tax, Total

Tax Exempt/Government Entities
Partnership Returns, Total

Tax Exempt/Government Entities
Employment Tax, Total

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

1,006,474

1,017,600

1,027,300

1,035,900

1,045,200

1,054,000

1,063,200

1,072,100

1,081,200

Small Business/Self-Employed

879,451

891,700

902,400

911,900

922,300

932,100

942,300

952,200

962,300

Large and Mid-Sized Business

84,725

84,700

84,500

84,300

84,100

83,900

83,700

83,500

83,300

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

42,298

41,300

40,400

39,600

38,800

38,000

37,200

36,300

35,500

1,525,627

1,563,200

1,606,700

1,649,500

1,693,500

1,737,500

1,782,000

1,826,600

1,871,600

1,525,627

1,563,200

1,606,700

1,649,500

1,693,500

1,737,500

1,782,000

1,826,600

1,871,600

904,167

908,900

919,300

929,000

937,900

946,200

953,900

961,000

967,500

904,167

908,900

919,300

929,000

937,900

946,200

953,900

961,000

967,500

Excise, Total

Exempt Organization, Total
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
Employee Plans, Forms 5500, 5500EZ, and 5500SF
Tax Exempt/Government Entities

NOTES: Detail may not add to total due to rounding. See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Returns/BOD."
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Spring 2018 Publication 6292.

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Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories—Mean Absolute Percent Error
(MAPE) and Number of Overprojections for the Four Most Recent Projection Cycles
Item

Grand Total—Selected Returns *

Calendar Year
2017 Actual *
(thousands)

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections
MAPE

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

10.92%

18.95%

4

4

4

0.65%

0.61%

1.48%

3.41%

7.06%

2

2

1

1

0

0.50%

1.12%

1.45%

1.49%

1.61%

3

4

4

4

4

1.42%

3.21%

6.13%

10.14%

17.03%

3

4

4

4

4

0.43%

0.48%

1.28%

2.51%

5.59%

2

2

1

0

0

0.55%

1.04%

1.83%

2.15%

2.06%

4

4

4

4

4

1.99%

3.82%

11.08%

20.96%

34.31%

4

3

3

4

4

0.38%

0.81%

1.10%

1.51%

3.59%

3

4

2

1

1

2.02%

4.16%

4.75%

4.53%

4.15%

2

4

2

3

3

1.62%

3.19%

4.09%

4.21%

3.71%

4

3

2

1

1

0.84%

2.34%

3.32%

3.43%

5.83%

1

1

1

1

1

1.41%

1.13%

3.91%

5.61%

7.21%

2

1

2

2

3

1.09%

0.96%

2.16%

1.78%

2.10%

2

3

2

1

1

2.37%

4.47%

4.84%

5.59%

5.22%

3

3

3

3

2

1.33%

1.55%

6.73%

9.12%

11.91%

2

2

1

0

0

1,552

MAPE
Excise Total

6.18%

4

30,584

MAPE
Exempt Organization Total

3.27%

4

6,931

MAPE
Employment Total

3.26%

4,043

MAPE
Corporation Total

4

3,116

MAPE
Partnership Total

1.59%

4

22,229

Number of Overprojections
Fiduciary Total

1.65%

4

131,664

MAPE
Individual Estimated Tax Total

1.63%

4

18,203

MAPE
Individual Total—E-file

1.36%

4

149,866

MAPE
Individual Total—Paper

0.65%

157,708

MAPE
Individual Total

5 Years
Ahead
N=4

64,165

MAPE
Primary Total—E-file

4 Years
Ahead
N=4

221,872

MAPE
Primary Total—Paper

3 Years
Ahead
N=4

171,313

MAPE
Total Primary—Selected Returns *

2 Years
Ahead
N=4

74,983

MAPE
Grand Total—E-file

1 Year
Ahead
N=4

246,296

MAPE
Grand Total—Paper

Projection Error on Forecasts for:

1,011

*Some actuals shown in this table may differ from official counts reported elsewhere because they exclude certain return series only recently projected and whose accuracy cannot yet be evaluated.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Spring 2018 Publication 6292.

(6)

Table Notes
• Projected volumes are rounded to the nearest hundred; therefore, counts of 49 or fewer are
rounded to 0. However, some forms can report zero filings because they are associated with
only selected areas, or because their filing options were just established or recently eliminated.
• Actual and forecasted return counts for the major categories are based on IRS master file
processing, as recorded in the electronic versions of the “Report of Returns Posted to the IRS
Master Files.”
Table 1:
• “Grand Total” is the sum of “Total Primary Returns” and “Supplemental Documents.” The “Total
Primary Returns” category is the sum of all forms shown in the table, excluding “Supplemental
Documents.”
• “Individual Income Tax, Total” is the sum of paper and electronic Forms 1040, 1040-A, ­1040-EZ,
1040-NR, 1040-NR-EZ, 1040-PR, 1040-SS, and 1040-C.
• Various return categories, such as Form 1040-ES (Individual Estimated Tax) and other business and individual returns, include line items to account for alternative methods of tax filing.
The “paper only” components can be derived by subtracting the electronic counts from their
respective return totals.
• “Fiduciary, Form 1041” includes both paper and electronic Form 1041.
• “Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES” is the Estimated Income Tax for Estates and Trusts.
• “Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B” includes both paper and electronic Forms 1065 and ­1065-B.
• “Corporation Income Tax, Total” includes Forms 1120 (paper and electronic), 1120-F (paper
and electronic), 1120-H, 1120-L, 1120-ND, 1120-PC, 1120-SF, 1120-FSC, 1120-REIT, 1120RIC, and 1120-S (paper and electronic). Form 1120-POL volumes are reported separately
under the forms for “Political Organizations.” Form 1120-IC-DISC is not included in these
corporation projections.
• “Form 1120-C” is the U.S. Income Tax Return for Cooperative Associations.
• “Form 2553” is the Election by a Small Business Corporation (to file Form 1120-S).
• “Form 1066” is the U.S. Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) Income Tax
Return.
• “Estate” includes Forms 706, 706-NA, 706-GS(D), and 706-GS(T).
• “Gift, Form 709” is the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return.
• “Employment Tax, Total” includes paper and electronic Forms 940, 940-EZ, 940-PR, 941,
941-PR, 941-SS, 943, 943-PR, 943-SS, 944, 945, and CT-1. CT-2 is excluded since the return
counts were only available on the non-master File.
• “Form 1042” is the annual tax return for Foreign Person’s U.S.-Source Income Subject to
Withholding. This form is assigned to the International area. It is sometimes considered an
employment tax return but is listed separately here.

(7)

• “Exempt Organizations, Total” includes Forms 990 (paper and electronic), 990-EZ (paper and
electronic), 990-N (only available electronically), 990-PF (paper and electronic), 990-T, 4720,
and 5227.
• “Form 1041-A” is the U.S. Information Return Trust Accumulation of Charitable Amounts.
• “Government Entities/Bonds” includes Forms 8038, 8038-CP, 8038-G, 8038-GC, 8038-T,
8038-TC, and 8328.
• “Political Organizations” includes both paper and electronic Forms 1120-POL, 8871, and 8872.
• “Excise, Total” includes Forms 11-C, 730, and paper and electronic Forms 720, 2290, and
8849.
• “Form 5330” is the Return of Excise Taxes Related to Employee Benefit Plans.
• “Form 5500-EZ” is the Annual Return for One-Participant (Owners and Their Spouses) Retirement Plan.
• “Form 8752” is the Required Payment or Refund Under Section 7519.
• “Supplemental Documents” consists mainly of applications for extensions of time to file and
amended tax returns, which include Forms 1040-X, 4868 (both paper and electronic), 1120-X,
5558, 7004 (both paper and electronic), and 8868 (both paper and electronic).
Table 2:
• Individual filers classified as “Small Business/Self-Employed” reflect those taxpayers filing a
Form 1040 return with a Schedule C, Schedule F, Schedule E, and/or Form 2106 attached, or
with mailing addresses or forms considered “International.” All other individual filers are classified as “Wage and Investment.”
• In general, corporation filers (Form 1120 series returns including Form 1120-S) and partnership filers are classified as “Large Business and International” if their reported total assets are
$10 million or more. Corporation and partnership returns with assets below $10 million are
generally classified as “Small Business/Self-Employed.” However, there are also some partnership and corporation returns classified as part of the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities”
operating division.
• Nonprofit organizations, pension plan filers, tribal authorities, and governmental units comprise the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” classification.
• “Employee Plans” returns include paper and electronic Forms 5500, 5500-EZ, and 5500-SF.
Counts by operating division in this table are based primarily upon the IRS master file “BOD
indicator.” This indicator is a single, point-in-time, taxpayer-level identifier (in contrast to a
return-by-return identifier).

(8)

Other Projection Publications
IRS Publication
Number

Typical Updates

Calendar Year Projections of Information and
Withholding Documents for the United States
and IRS Campuses

6961

Summer

Calendar Year Return Projections for the
United States and IRS Campuses

6186

Fall

Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns
by Major Processing Categories

6187

Fall

Calendar Year Return Projections by State

6149

Winter

Title

These publications are available electronically as noted inside the front cover.
They may also be requested by:
phone at (202) 803-9369, fax at (202) 803-9154, or
writing to the following address:
Internal Revenue Service
Statistics of Income Division OS:RAAS:SOI
Attn: Chief, Servicewide Support Section
1111 Constitution Avenue, NW, K-4100
Washington, D.C. 20224

Publication 6292 (Rev. 6-2018)  Catalog Number 59069P  Department of the Treasury  Internal Revenue Service www.irs.gov/statistics