0596-NEW Supporting Statement B (Nick D Edits)_omb_lowe

Supporting Statement B - OMB No. 0596-NEW

US Department of Agriculture

Forest Service

The Whole Enchilada Trail: Conditions, User Experience and Comment Survey

and

Recreational Carrying Capacity Study

2. Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection methods to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection had been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.

This survey seeks to collect data from a maximum of 1500 individuals and private sector businesses. The survey is designed to be a convenience sample of visitors and a non-random survey of identified businesses and other stakeholders. The visitor respondent universe encompasses individuals who visit the trail from mid-September to early-November. Selection of respondents will be focused on those that have accessed the trail within the last 3 months or that have direct links to the Whole Enchilada trail itself, such as Special Use Permittees accessing and using the trail, trail use and maintenance organizations, or other special interest groups. This selection will help provide the most accurate data from respondents for use in the carrying capacity study.

Affected Entities	Federal Government agencies	State and Local Governments	Private Sector	Persons/Individuals
Estimated number of respondents	0	0	50	500 (min) – 1450(max)

Affected Entities (Expanded)	Strata Groupings	Estimated Number	Sub-groupings	Estimated Number
Private Sector	Private businesses not affiliated with Whole Enchilada trail	20	Guided Tour Companies	5
			Hotels/Restaurants/Bed and Breakfasts	10
			Non-profits/ Other/Misc.	5
	Private businesses affiliated with the Whole Enchilada trail	30	Shuttle Companies	5
			Guided Tour Companies	10
			Recreation Event Planners	5
			Non-profits/Other/Misc.	10
Persons/Individuals	Recreational Trail Users (Legal Uses)	1435	Hikers (Day Use)	100
			Mountain Bikers	1300
			Backpackers (overnight use)	5
			Equestrian	5
			Runners	10
			Hunters	10
			Other	5
	Non-Trail Users (non-legal uses)	10	Motorcyclists	0
			e-Bikers	10
			ATVers/OHVers	0
			4-Wheelers	0
	Other Stakeholders	5	Cattle Ranchers	1
			Miners/Mineral Claimants	0
			Extractive/Energy Industries	0
			Timber Companies	0
			Environmental Groups	4

These tables represent a general estimate of stakeholder types (strata) that may actually be involved with the collection process. This is based off of data collected at trail registers, special use permit administrative documents, USFS employee experience on trials, and previous National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) surveys.

This request for the collection of information is new so there are no actual response rates for the survey. However, estimates from other agencies, online sources, academic institutions, and other organizations have estimated survey response rates as follows:

On-site: 65%

Mail-in: 10%

Online: 75%

Average of 50% total response rate

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including: * Statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection, * Estimation procedure, * Degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification, * Unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures, and * Any use of periodic (less frequent than annual) data collection cycles to reduce burden.

There will be no stratification nor intentional sample selection methodologies undertaken in this collection of information other than filtering out survey participants that have not accessed the trail within the last 3 months. Estimation procedures for adequate sample size was based on previous ‘satisfaction surveys’ that were associated with other carrying capacity studies done by other agencies and academic organizations. As mentioned in supporting statement A, Troy Hall and Jeffery Hallo helped the Forest Service Recreation staff greatly with editing the survey as well as provided needed baseline information about such surveys, required questions, sample sizes, and statistical analyses to be carried out on raw data. The objective is to achieve the highest degree of accuracy for this survey. It will be assumed that the responses are themselves accurate and true. There are no unusual problems that may require any specialized sampling anticipated with this collection of information. The survey is intended for a three-month period in September, October and possibly November of 2019. There is no current plan to extend this survey period beyond these three months in 2019.

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling, a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

As mentioned in supporting statement A, this collection of information will be in the form of a survey, which will be delivered by three separate methods. There will be a more traditional on-site, in person survey provided at trailheads and exits. This will capture the most respondents for the survey. If respondents are willing but unable to take the time to fill out the survey on site, we have mail-in surveys that they can take with them and fill out at their own convenience. There is also an online version of the survey that will be accessible through a QR code that can link respondents to the survey on any computer, tablet or smartphone. Individuals wishing to receive a copy of the online survey, may leave an email address in which USFS employees can send them the survey or a link to SurveyMonkey rather than using a QR code. These options, especially, the online survey, should greatly increase the response rates.

It is assumed that some surveys will have missing answers, whether deliberate or accidental, and they will be dealt with similarly. Issues of non-response will be categorized as ‘did not respond’ and recorded as raw data itself. Any responses such as ‘no opinion’ or ‘prefer not to answer’ will be recorded as such and categorized and compiled as raw data as well. Non-response or blank answers will not invalidate the entire survey. Furthermore, the survey and every question therein, is voluntary.

The survey will be provided to respondents that have either just accessed the Whole Enchilada trail or have done so within a three-month period. This will help ensure ‘fresh’ data that will be more reliable than data obtained from sampling populations that have never accessed the area, or done so outside of the 3-month threshold.

The USDA Forest Service will have numbered surveys for each methodology of survey—on-site, mail in or online—in order to calculate the response rates. USFS employees will keep track of the unique numbers of surveys given out to willing participants and then calculate the response rate to those that are returned via mail. Online surveys accessed through SurveyMonkey will be recorded similarly by recording how many QR codes were handed out or scanned and then calculating number of surveys completed via the number of QR codes handed out. On-site (trailhead) refusal rates will be recorded as well. Furthermore, each question on the survey will be tallied for completion rates and compiled to provide response rates for each individual question for all returned surveys.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken. Testing is encouraged as an effective means of refining collections of information to minimize burden and improve utility. Tests must be approved if they call for answers to identical questions from 10 or more respondents. A proposed test or set of test may be submitted for approval separately or in combination with the main collection of information.

The collection of information in the form of the survey The Whole Enchilada Trail: Conditions, User Experience and Comment Survey 2019 was developed specifically for the Moab Ranger District. The questions on the survey are tailored to provide answered and usable data to help guide managerial decisions. The survey itself has not been given to any member of the public. However, the Recreation staff has asked select individuals to read and edit the survey as well as answer the survey. Several university professors with direct experience in such surveys helped edit the surveys. Various US Forest Service employees have also commented and filled out the survey as a testing method. The feedback the Recreation staff received aided in the development of the survey. No results—information or data—were kept from these mock survey responses. No responses will be compiled into the data that will then be used for analysis and the carrying capacity study. Mock surveys will be collected, reviewed for edits and comments and then stored separately or destroyed to ensure they will not be added to the raw data.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), grantee(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

Statistical Input/Help

Troy Hall, Oregon State University, Professor and Department Head of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Corvallis, OR; 541-737-1306, [email protected]

Jeffery Hallo, Clemson University, Associate Professor: Parks, Recreation and Tourism , Clemson, SC; 864-656-3237, [email protected]

Primary Data Collection

US Forest Service: Manti-La Sal National Forest-Moab Ranger District Staff

Zachary Lowe, Recreation Specialist/Principal Investigator/Graduate Student, 435-636-3335, [email protected]

Amanda Wilson, Resource Clerk, 435-259-7155, [email protected]

Lisa Carter, Forestry Technician, 435-259-7155,

Online Data Collection/Compilation

SurveyMonkey, www.surveymonkey.com

Page 1 of 10