SIPPRA Outcome Val SIPPRA Outcome Valuation Workbook (word)

OMB No. 1505-0260

Outcome Valuation Attachment Template

As discussed in section D.2.b of the Notice of Funding Availability (NOFA), applicants are required to provide an attachment supporting the outcome valuation for their proposed projects.¹ If an applicant proposes multiple project outcomes and multiple outcome payments, the applicant must provide a separate outcome valuation analysis for each desired outcome payment, as well as an aggregated outcome valuation analysis. In calculating the outcome valuation for their projects, applicants are required to follow the methodology set for in section A.5.b of the NOFA.² The purpose of the template provided below is to assist applicants with their calculations of outcome valuations under the requirements set forth in the NOFA.

As stated in the NOFA, as part of the overall evaluation strategy, applicants must document and submit their estimates of baseline federal revenues and outlays and estimated changes to federal revenues and outlays as a direct result of each proposed intervention in a way that is easily replicable. The documentation must provide sufficient information (e.g., all data sources, related literature, assumptions, and justifications) to show how the applicant arrived at the estimate of baseline federal revenues and outlays, and changes in federal revenue and outlays as a direct result of the proposed intervention.³ As further guidance as to the specific nature of this documentation, for applicants using micro (or individual) level data to estimate federal outlays and revenue, it would be helpful for this information to include the name of the data source, the entity collecting the data, whether the data originated in an administrative database or was collected from a survey, the population represented in the data, how the data was collected, and any sample restrictions placed on the data. Likewise, for applicants using summary statistics (e.g., average benefit amount) provided in publicly available reports or other publicly available sources to estimate federal outlays and revenue, it would be helpful for this information to include the source of the statistic(s), the timeframe used to calculate the statistic(s), and the population used to calculate the statistic(s).

In addition, to facilitate review of the outcome valuation information, it would be useful for applicants to include in the outcome valuation attachment the following information that is also required to be included elsewhere in the application: a brief description of the intervention, the outcome target(s), the intervention period, the target population that will be served by the project, the criteria used to determine the eligibility of an individual for the project, the proposed logic model (theory of change), and the justifications (e.g., citations and the range of estimates found by previous or similar interventions) for why the proposed SIPPRA intervention will have the predicted effect, including why and how the proposed SIPPRA intervention will affect federal revenue and/or outlays.

Estimates of federal outlays and revenue should be rounded to the nearest hundred, rounding up any number that ends in a number greater than $50 to the nearest $100. In addition, as discussed in the NOFA, each applicant must estimate the annual and cumulative federal outlays and revenue and value for the target population over the intervention period.

¹ See Social Impact Partnerships to Pay for Results Demonstration Projects, 84 FR 5560, 5567 (Feb. 21, 2019).

² See 84 FR at 5563-5564.

³ See 84 FR at 5563.

Step 1: Estimate target population baseline over the intervention period under current law (before the intervention is performed)

As discussed in the NOFA, each applicant must estimate the federal outlays and revenue for the target population under current law and absent any changes in outcomes that may occur as a direct result of the SIPPRA intervention. Specifically, applicants must:

1. Estimate the total amount of federal revenue paid by the target population in dollars, if applicable.

2. Estimate the total amount of federal outlays expended on the target population, in dollars.

In providing the estimates in a clear and concise way, applicants may organize their estimates using the following table (the below table is identical to the sheet labeled “Baseline” in the accompanying Excel spreadsheet):

Table 1: Baseline Federal Outlays and Revenue

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	…	Year T	Total
Total Federal Outlays	#	#	#		#	#
Program 1	#	#	#		#	#
Program 2	#	#	#		#	#
Program 3	#	#	#		#	#
⁞
Program P	#	#	#		#	#
Total Federal Revenue	#	#	#		#	#
Total Number of Participants Total Intervention Cost	#p #	#p #	#p #		#p #	#p #

where T is the final year of the intervention period; P is the total number of programs serving the ^{target population; # are relevant dollar amounts; and #p is the total number of participants in the} intervention (e.g., all individuals in the treatment and control groups). “Total Intervention Cost” refers to the total cost of the intervention.

Step 2: Estimate outcomes and federal outlays and revenue over the intervention period under current law (as of February 21, 2019, the date the NOFA is published in the Federal Register) assuming the intervention takes place

According to the NOFA, each applicant must estimate the federal outlays and revenue for the target population under current law assuming the intervention takes place and has the desired effect. Specifically, applicants must:

3. Estimate the total federal taxes paid by the target population after its outcomes have changed as a direct result of the SIPPRA intervention, if applicable.

4. Estimate the total amount of federal outlays expended on the target population after its outcomes have changed as a direct result of the SIPPRA intervention.

In providing the estimates in a clear and concise way, applicants may organize their estimates using the following table along with the information discussed above (the below table is identical to the sheet labeled “After Intervention” in the accompanying Excel spreadsheet):

Table 2: Predicted Federal Outlays and Revenue after Program Intervention

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	…	Year T	Total
Total Federal Spending	#	#	#		#	#
Program 1	#	#	#		#	#
Program 2	#	#	#		#	#
Program 3	#	#	#		#	#
⁞
Program P	#	#	#		#	#
Total Federal Revenue	#	#	#		#	#
Total Number of Participants Total Intervention Cost	#p #	#p #	#p #		#p #	#p #

where T is the final year of the intervention period; P is the total number of programs serving the ^{target population; # are relevant dollar amounts; and #p is the total number of participants in the} intervention.

Step 3: Estimate total value of the intervention to the federal government in dollars

Value to the federal government is the change in revenue as a direct result of the SIPPRA intervention minus the change in spending as a direct result of the SIPPRA intervention:

Value = (C – A) – (D – B)

In providing the estimates in a clear and concise way, applicants may organize their estimates using the following table (the below table is identical to the sheet labeled “Outcome Valuation Calculation” in the accompanying Excel spreadsheet):

OMB No. 1505-0260
	Year 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1	Table 3: Outcome Valuation Year 2 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1	…	Year T Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1	Total Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1 Table 2 – Table 1
Change in Total Federal Spending Program 1 Program 2 Program 3 ⁞ Program P
Change in Total Federal Revenue	Table 2 – Table 1	Table 2 – Table 1		Table 2 – Table 1	Table 2 – Table 1
Value	Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending	Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending		Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending	Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending
Value per Participant	(Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending) ÷ Total Number of Participants	(Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending) ÷ Total Number of Participants		(Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending) ÷ Total Number of Participants	(Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending) ÷ Total Number of Participants
Value per Dollar of Intervention Cost Total Number of Participants	(Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending) ÷ Total Intervention Cost #p	(Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending) ÷ Total Intervention Cost #p		(Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending) ÷ Total Intervention Cost #p	(Change in Total Federal Revenue – Change in Total Federal Spending) ÷ Total Intervention Cost #p
Total Intervention Cost	#	#		#	#

^{where T is the final year of the intervention period; P is the total number of programs; # are relevant dollar amounts; #p is the total} number of participants in the intervention; and Table 2 – Table 1 refers to the entry in the cell from Table 2 minus the entry in the corresponding cell from Table 1 (essentially, the change in the spending or revenue as a direct result of the SIPPRA intervention).

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OMB No. 1505-0260

As provided in 5 C.F.R. § 1320.5(b) and § 1320.6(a), an agency may not conduct or sponsor a collection of information unless the collection of information displays a currently valid OMB control number and the agency informs potential persons who are to respond to the collection of information that such persons are not required to respond to the collection of information unless it displays a currently valid OMB control number.

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