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Forecast Highlights (2019–2039) ................................................................................................1
Review of 2018 ...........................................................................................................................3
Glossary of Acronyms .................................................................................................................5
Acknowledgements .....................................................................................................................7
FAA Aerospace Forecasts ..........................................................................................................8
Economic Environment........................................................................................................... 9
U.S. Airlines...........................................................................................................................11
Domestic Market ................................................................................................................11
International Market ...........................................................................................................17
Cargo .................................................................................................................................21
General Aviation ....................................................................................................................23
FAA Operations .....................................................................................................................29
U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................31
Commercial Space ................................................................................................................33
Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA....................................................................34
FAA’s Operations Forecast ................................................................................................36
Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy .................................................................39
Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................41
Trends in Model Aircraft and Forecast ...............................................................................41
Survey of Non-Model Aircraft Owners ................................................................................43
Trends in Non-Model Aircraft and Forecast........................................................................45
Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................49
Urban Air Mobility ..............................................................................................................50
Forecast Uncertainties...........................................................................................................52
Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................56
Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................56
Alternative Forecasts .............................................................................................................61
Enplanements ....................................................................................................................61
Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................62
Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................62
Load Factor .......................................................................................................................63
Yield ..................................................................................................................................64
Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy .......................................................................................69
Appendix C: Forecast Tables ...................................................................................................71
Forecast Highlights (2019–2039)
tions in the U.S. and the world. Oil prices averaged $64 per barrel in 2018 edging down
to $61 in 2019, and our forecast assumes
they will increase beginning in the early
2020s to reach $98 by the end of the forecast
period. After a year of solid economic growth
in 2018 for the U.S. and generally around the
world, conditions are beginning to gradually
ease. Some headwinds that have been present over the past few years remain, such as
the uncertainty surrounding “Brexit” and the
difficulty China faces in managing the slowdown of its economy. Meanwhile, new headwinds have developed, including a broad
slowdown in global trade, political tensions in
several countries, and economic slumps in Italy and Germany. The U.S. economy is
showing signs of moderating from the abovetrend pace in 2018 as the expansion is
poised to become the longest on record.
Growth is expected to ease back towards
trend with domestic demand supported by
positive financial conditions, a strong labor
market, and continuing effects of the 2017
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility
that was associated with these cycles was
thought by many to be a structural feature of
an industry that was capital intensive but
cash poor. However, the great recession of
2007-09 marked a fundamental change in
the operations and finances of U.S Airlines.
Since the end of the recession in 2009, U.S.
airlines revamped their business models to
minimize losses by lowering operating costs,
eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated
new services that customers were willing to
purchase and started charging separately for
services that were historically bundled in the
price of a ticket. The industry experienced
an unprecedented period of consolidation
with three major mergers in five years. The
results of these efforts have been impressive: 2018 marks the tenth consecutive year
of profitability for the U.S. airline industry.
Looking forward, there is confidence that
U.S. airlines have finally transformed from a
capital intensive, highly cyclical industry to
an industry that generates solid returns on
capital and sustained profits.
System traffic in revenue passenger miles
(RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.2 percent a year between 2019 and 2039. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 1.9 percent a year while International RPMs are
forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.0
percent a year. System capacity as measured by available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is
growing, especially in the regional jet market,
where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2030,
replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.
Fundamentally, over the medium and long
term, aviation demand is driven by economic
activity, and a growing U.S. and world economy provides the basis for aviation to grow
over the long run. The 2019 FAA forecast
calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger
growth over the next 20 years to average 1.8
percent per year. The uptick in passenger
growth since 2014 will continue into 2019
driven by generally positive economic condi-
1
continues to shrink over the forecast.
Against the stable fleet, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 0.8 percent per year
through 2039, as growth in turbine, rotorcraft,
and experimental hours more than offset a
decline in fixed wing piston hours.
Although the U.S. and global economies saw
solid growth in 2018, a combination of higher
energy prices and labor cost increases resulted in profits for U.S. airlines falling further
from 2016’s record levels. The FAA expects
U.S. carrier profitability to remain steady or
increase as solid demand fed by a stable
economy offsets rising energy and labor
costs. Over the long term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel
and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing
U.S. and global economy.
With increasing numbers of regional and
business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix
changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased
activity growth that has the potential to increase controller workload. Operations at
FAA and contract towers are forecast to grow
0.9 percent a year over the forecast period
with commercial activity growing at five times
the rate of non-commercial (general aviation
and military) activity. The growth in U.S. airline and business aviation activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see
much faster increases than small and nonhub airports, largely due to the commercial
nature of their operations.
The long-term outlook for general aviation is
stable to optimistic, as growth at the high-end
offsets continuing retirements at the traditional low end of the segment. The active
general aviation fleet is forecast to remain
relatively level between 2019 and 2039.
While steady growth in both GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the
turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston aircraft
2
Review of 2018
An improving economy at home and solid
growth abroad translated into another good
year for U.S. aviation in 2018. Airlines
posted their tenth consecutive year of profits
as they boosted revenue growth at the fastest rate since the recession. Revenues grew
as the U.S. airline industry continues to shift
its emphasis from gaining market share to
seeking returns on invested capital. U.S. airlines are continually updating their successful strategies for capturing additional revenue
streams such as charging fees for services
that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal
service), charging for services that were not
previously available (e.g. premium boarding
and fare lock fees), as well as for maximizing
fare revenue with more sophisticated revenue management systems. At the same
time, the U.S. airline industry has become
nimbler in adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or minimize losses, helping to raise
yields for the first time in four years. These
efforts secured industry profitability in 2018
even as energy prices and new labor contracts lifted costs higher.
RPMs increased 3.4 percent and enplanements grew by 2.8 percent. The systemwide load factor was 83.8 percent, up three
tenths of a percent from the 2017 level.
System yields increased for the first time
since 2014. In domestic markets, expansion
by ultra-low cost carriers such as Spirit and
Allegiant, as well as by mainline carriers such
as United, helped to keep a lid on fare increases despite rising energy and labor
costs as yields were unchanged. International yield rose a strong 5.6 percent as both
the Atlantic and Latin regions gained sharply
and the Pacific region reversed course after
years of declines and posted a solid gain.
Despite rising energy and labor costs, U.S.
airlines remained solidly profitable in FY
2018. Data for FY 2018 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating profit of $17.6 billion (compared to a
$21.5 billion operating profit for FY 2017).
The network carriers 1 reported combined operating profits of $12.5 billion while the low
cost carriers 2 reported combined operating
profits of $4.5 billion as all carriers posted
profits.
Demand for air travel in 2018 picked up again
after cooling in 2017 as economic growth in
the U.S. accelerated. In 2018, system traffic
as measured by revenue passenger miles
(RPMs) increased 4.8 percent while system
enplanements grew 4.7 percent. Domestic
RPMs were up 5.4 percent while enplanements were up by 5.0 percent. International
The general aviation industry recorded an increase of 9.2 percent in deliveries of U.S.
manufactured aircraft in 2018, with pistons
up by 5.5 percent and turbines up by 12.8
percent. As the higher priced turbine deliveries improved significantly (as opposed to a
1
2
Network carriers are: Alaska Airlines, American
Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Air Lines.
Low cost carriers are: Allegiant Air, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines, Spirit
Air Lines, Sun Country Airlines.
3
FY 1997-2000 that operations at FAA and
funded towers have increased for four consecutive years. Air carrier activity increased
by 4.3 percent, more than offsetting a decline
in air taxi operations, while general aviation
rose 3.3 percent and military activity decreased 2.1 percent. Activity at large hubs
rose by 1.9 percent, while medium hub activity increased by 3.5 percent and small hub
airport activity was up 1.5 percent in 2018
compared to the prior year.
flat performance last year), U.S. billings increased 9.0 percent to $11.6 billion. General aviation activity at FAA and contract
tower airports recorded a 3.3 percent increase in 2018 as local activity rose 5.2 percent, more than offsetting a 1.8 percent decline in itinerant operations.
Total operations in 2018 at the 518 FAA and
contract towers were up 2.9 percent compared to 2017. This marks the first time since
4
Glossary of Acronyms
Acronym
ANG
ARP
ASMs
AST
ATO
ATP
AUVSI
BVLOS
CAPS
CBP
CFR
COAs
CORSIA
CRS
CY
DARPA
DHS
DoD
DoE
DoI
FAA
FY
GA
GAMA
GC
GDP
ICAO
IFR
IMF
ISS
LAANC
LCC
LSA
NAS
NASA
NDAA
NOTAM
NPRM
PCE
PDARS
RAC
RLV
RP
RPA
RPMs
Term
FAA Office of NextGen
FAA Office of Airports
Available Seat Miles
FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation
FAA Air Traffic Organization
Air Transport Pilot
Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International
Beyond Visual Line of Sight
COA Application Processing System
Customs and Border Patrol
Code of Federal Regulations
Certification of Authorizations
Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International
Aviation
Commercial Resupply Services
Calendar Year
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Department of Homeland Security
Department of Defense
Department of Energy
Department of Interior
Federal Aviation Administration
Fiscal Year
General Aviation
General Aviation Manufacturers Association
Grand Challenge
Gross Domestic Product
International Civil Aviation Organization
Instrument Flight Rules
International Monetary Fund
International Space Station
Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability
Low Cost Carriers
Light Sport Aircraft
National Airspace System
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Defense Authorization Act
Notices to Airmen
Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking
Personal Consumption Expenditure
Performance Data Analysis and Reporting Systems
Refiners’ Acquisition Cost
Reusable Launch Vehicle
Remote Pilot
Remote Pilot Authorization
Revenue Passenger Miles
5
RTMs
sUAS
SpaceX
TRACON
TRB
TSA
UAM
UAS
UASFM
USD
VFR
Revenue Ton Miles
Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Terminal Radar Approach Control
Transportation Research Board
Transportation Security Administration
Urban Air Mobility
Unmanned Aircraft System(s)
UAS facility maps
United States Dollar
Visual Flight Rules
6
Acknowledgements
This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100),
Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Roger Schaufele and Michael Lukacs.
The following people may be contacted for further information:
Section
Economic Environment
Contact Name
Jonathan Corning
Phone Number
(202) 267-8388
Jonathan Corning
Li Ding
(202) 267-8388
(202) 267-1846
Nick Miller
(202) 267-3309
General Aviation
• Forecasts
• Survey data
H. Anna Barlett
H. Anna Barlett
(202) 267-4070
(202) 267-4070
FAA Workload Measures
• Forecasts
• Data
Chia-Mei Liu
Chia-Mei Liu
(202) 267-3602
(202) 267-3602
Commercial Space
Michelle Murray
(202) 740-3119
Unmanned Aircraft Systems
Michael Lukacs
Dipasis Bhadra
(202) 267-9641
(202) 267-9027
Commercial Air Carriers
• Passenger
•
Cargo
APO Websites
• Forecasts and statistical
publications
•
APO databases
Email for APO staff
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/
http://aspm.faa.gov
First name.last [email protected]
7
FAA Aerospace Forecasts
Fiscal Years 2019-2039
8
Economic Environment
to suffer from trade concerns and an increase in the consumption tax later in 2019.
In emerging markets, China’s growth rate
continues to gradually decelerate through 6
percent, though supported by government
stimulus, while other countries such as Brazil
and Russia suffer from political uncertainties
and relatively weak export demand. India is
expected to post growth rates of about 7 percent as consumer spending slows and fiscal
stimulus is reduced.
In the near term, IHS Markit projects that
world economic growth will ease slightly from
its 2018 rate of 2 percent as economies return to their long-run trend growth rates.
Growth is projected at 2.9 percent in 2019
and 2.8 percent in 2020. The U.S. economy
is forecast to be supported by improved financial conditions but restrained by reduced
government spending while European
growth is pressured by weakness in manufacturing and widespread political uncertainty. Japan’s economic growth is projected
India and China led World Economic Growth in 2018
Annual Percent Change
8.0
7.2
6.6
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.2
2.9
3.0
2.3
1.9
2.0
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.0
India
China
U.S.
Russia
Eurozone
Brazil
Japan
World
Source: IHS Markit
Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Growth
in the more mature economies (1.6 percent
a year) will be lower than the global trend
with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by
Europe. Growth in Japan is forecast to be
very slow at 0.9 percent a year reflecting
deep structural issues associated with a
shrinking and aging population.
IHS Markit forecasts world real GDP to grow
at 2.8 percent a year between 2019 and
2039. Emerging markets, at 4.1 percent a
year, are forecast to grow above the global
average but at lower rates than in the early
2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India
and China, is projected to have the fastest
growth followed by Africa and Middle East,
9
Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth
Annual GDP % growth 2019-2039
China
4.6
Asia ex. China
3.4
M.E. & Africa
3.1
Latin America
2.8
World
2.8
Emerging Europe
2.4
U.S.
1.8
Eurozone
Japan
1.3
0.9
Source: IHS Markit, Feb 2019 World Forecast
The price of oil is projected to increase over
the long run due to growing global demand
and higher costs of extraction. IHS Markit
forecasts U.S. refiner's acquisition cost of
crude to remain just shy of $100 per barrel
by the end of the forecast horizon in 2039.
The average crude oil price in 2018 was up
28 percent from the year before to about $65
per barrel, continuing the increase seen in
2017. IHS Markit is projecting slight moderation in prices in 2019 and 2020 due to supply growth, particularly in the U.S., followed
by gradual increases in subsequent years.
U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost
$ Per Barrel of Oil
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
Fiscal Year
Source: IHS Markit
10
U.S. Airlines
Domestic Market
Mainline and regional carriers 3 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is
confined to the border markets in Canada,
Mexico, and the Caribbean.
2009, U.S. domestic ASMs have increased
at an average rate of 2.5 percent per year
while RPMs have grown 3.1 percent per
year. Although those average rates of
growth since the recession are modest, they
conceal the fact that growth has been picking
up over the period (4.6 percent and 4.7 percent a year since 2014, respectively). ASM
growth has risen due to a variety of factors
including upgauging and the expansion of ultra-low-cost carriers and the competitive response by major carriers, driven in large part
by low fuel prices. Looking ahead to the
near-term, that earlier restraint in ASM
growth is likely to continue easing as some
carriers have indicated plans to open new
routes. As new service begins, competitors
may respond by adding their own new
routes, thus further boosting ASM growth.
The commercial air carrier industry in 2019
will respond to four trends already underway:
(1) selective capacity expansion; (2) steady
growth of seats per aircraft, whether through
up-gauging or reconfiguring existing aircraft;
(3) increasing competitive pressure due to ultra-low-cost carrier expansion; and (4) increasing price discrimination 4 through ancillary revenues and revenue management
systems.
Following the 2007-09 recession, the U.S.
airline industry underwent considerable restructuring that has resulted in an unprecedented period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978
and 2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank
by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the
events of September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were
3.6 percent above the FY 2000 level. Since
The period of domestic capacity restraint
since 2007 has not been shared equally between the mainline carriers and their regional
counterparts. In 2018, the mainline carrier
group provided 14.8 percent more capacity
than in 2007 while carrying 17.8 percent
more passengers. Capacity flown by the regional group has risen just 0.5 percent over
the same period (with passengers carried
down 1.5 percent).
3 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing
service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more
seats. Regionals are defined as those providing
service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats
and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the
mainline carriers.
4 Simply defined as the business strategy of selling largely similar products to different customers at different prices.
11
this has meant stagnant growth in enplanements and yields.
The regional market has continued to shrink
as the regionals compete for even fewer contracts with the remaining dominant carriers;
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers
Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group
Enplanements (millions)
1,200
219
1,000
204
189
800
154
160
176
168
600
400
627
656
690
723
777
2018E
2019
2023
2027
2031
837
2035
901
200
Fiscal Year
Mainline
12
Regional
2039
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers
Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield
25.00
Revenue Per Mile (¢)
20.00
19.3
18.2
17.1
15.00
16.0
15.9
14.8
10.00
14.1
13.9
13.9
11.4
15.0
13.1
11.5
12.2
5.00
2018E
2019
2023
2027
Fiscal Year
Mainline
2031
2035
2039
Regionals
the decade from 1997 to 2007. The trend
has slowed more recently, however, as regional seats per aircraft rose 28 percent over
the ten years ending in 2018.
The regionals have less leverage with the
mainline carriers than they have had in the
past as the mainline carriers have negotiated
contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing some
pilot shortages. Their labor costs are increasing as they raise wages to combat the
pilot shortage while their capital costs have
increased in the short-term as they continue
to replace their 50 seat regional jets with
more fuel-efficient 70 seat jets. The move to
the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the
future, however, since their unit costs are
lower.
Mainline carriers have also been increasing
the seats per aircraft flown although the trend
has been accelerating – the reverse of regionals' behavior. From 1997-2007, mainline
seats per aircraft expanded just one-half of
one percent. Since 2007, this measure has
grown 9 percent.
Another continuing trend is that of ancillary
revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers.
This includes the un-bundling of services
previously included in the ticket price such as
Growing seats per aircraft has been a
longstanding trend for regionals that saw this
measure rise by more than 55 percent over
13
The offering of Basic Economy fares has
been part of an effort by network carriers to
protect market share in response to the rapid
growth low cost carriers (LCC) have
achieved in recent years. While mainline enplanements have increased almost 18 percent since 2007, and regionals' have shrunk
1.5 percent, low cost carrier enplanements
have grown by 36 percent. RPMs over the
same period show a similar pattern with
mainline RPMs up almost 22 percent, regional RPMs up 6 percent and LCC RPMs
fully 46 percent higher.
checked bags, on-board meals and seat selection, and by adding new services such as
boarding priority and internet access. After
posting record net profits in 2016, U.S. passenger carrier profits declined in the subsequent three years on rising fuel and labor
costs, and flat yields. Nevertheless, profits
remain solid and supported by ancillary revenues and the implementation of increasingly sophisticated revenue management
systems. These systems enable carriers to
price fares optimally for each day and time of
flight and minimize foregone revenue. Besides this method of price discrimination, airlines are continuing to implement plans to
further segment their passengers into more
discreet cost categories based on comfort
amenities like seat pitch, leg room, and access to social media and power outlets. In
2015, Delta introduced “Basic Economy”
fares that provided customers with a main
cabin experience at lower cost, in exchange
for fewer options. By the end of 2017 these
fares were available in 100% of Delta’s domestic network. In February 2017 American
began offering its version in February 2017,
and had expanded to the entire domestic
network by September. United deployed its
version of Basic Economy fares across its
domestic network in May, but quickly pulled
back the scale of deployment across its domestic network as negative revenue impacts
were more than anticipated.
U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of
domestic departures rose in 2016 for the first
time since 2007 but then pulled back in 2017
and rose again in 2018 leaving them about
17 percent below the 2007 level. ASMs,
RPMs and enplanements all grew in each of
the past eight years; these trends underlie
the expanding size of aircraft and higher load
factors. 5 In 2018, the domestic load factor
returned to 84.7 percent -- the historic high
first reached in 2016. Load factor is forecast
to rise and peak around 86.6 percent in the
future due to the logistical difficulties inherent
in matching supply perfectly with demand.
5
Commercial air carriers encompass both mainline and regional carriers.
14
6.0
87.0
5.0
86.5
4.0
86.0
3.0
85.5
2.0
85.0
1.0
84.5
0.0
84.0
2018E
2021
ASMs
2024
RPMs
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
Enplanements
2033
2036
Load Factor
Annual Percent Change
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers
Domestic Market
2039
Load Factor
U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in
the combined domestic and international
market was 5.0 percent in 2018 while regional carriers carried 3.3 percent more passengers.
System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity increased 4.4 percent to
1.194 trillion ASMs in 2018 while RPMs increased 4.8 percent to 1.001 trillion. During
the same period system-wide enplanements
increased 4.7 percent to 880.5 million. In
2018, U.S. carriers continued to prioritize the
domestic over the international market in
terms of allocating capacity as domestic capacity increased 5.1 percent while international capacity was up just 2.9 percent. U.S.
carriers' domestic capacity growth will exceed their international capacity growth in
2019 but carriers will start expanding capacity in international markets faster than domestic markets beginning in 2020 and this
trend is projected to continue through 2039
as the domestic market continues to mature.
In the domestic market, mainline enplanements increased for the eighth consecutive
year, up 5.4 percent, marking the first time
since 2000 that the industry recorded eight
consecutive years of passenger growth in
the domestic market. Mainline passengers in
international markets posted the ninth year of
growth, up 2.9 percent. Domestic mainline
enplanement growth is forecast to remain
solid, increasing at 4.6 percent in 2019 before slowing as economic activity cools and
averaging 1.6 percent annually over the forecast. After slowing during the early part of
the forecast, international enplanements are
15
two years before returning to growth of about
3.4 percent through the remainder of the
forecast.
expected to accelerate to an average of 3.1
percent through the forecast horizon.
With relatively robust demand, industry capacity growth was up 4.4 percent in 2018 after a 2.9 percent increase in 2017. The increased passenger volume and traffic offset
declining yields and along with higher ancillary revenues and relatively low fuel prices,
U.S. carriers were solidly profitable in 2018.
Domestic mainline capacity is expected to
match the pattern of enplanements with solid
4.5 percent growth in 2019, followed by a few
years of slower growth before returning to
trend. International mainline enplanements
are forecast to slow somewhat over the next
System load factor rose by four tenths of a
percentage point while trip length increased
1.1 miles (0.1 percent) in 2018, even as
seats per aircraft mile increased by 1.2 percent; again reflecting the trend towards using
larger aircraft. Seats per aircraft mile system-wide increased to 156.2 seats (up 1.8
seats per aircraft mile), the highest level
since 1990.
16
International Market
Growth of major global economies has begun to slow from the above-trend rates of recent years. Several moderating factors are
at work, including dampened credit growth,
reduced global trade, political stresses, and
tighter U.S. monetary policy. The European
and Japanese economies are generally seeing slow but positive growth, in part due to
weak trade with Asia. In turn, this has been
driven by China's continuing gradual slowdown which has been managed by the government and is unlikely to decline sharply.
Overall, global conditions appear to be on a
stable path but one with growth rates that are
closer to long-term trends than the higher
rates of the recent past. Combined with
moderate oil prices, this presents a supportive environment for air travel demand.
Over most of the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment
for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. In 2015 and
2016, growth in the domestic market surged,
outpacing international markets. However,
in 2017 enplanement growth in international
markets exceeded that in domestic markets,
only to be reversed again in 2018. Domestic
enplanement growth is expected to outpace
that of international markets for the next few
years when longer term economic trends
begin to reassert themselves. Average annual growth rates (FY 2019-2039) of the international market (comprised of mainline
and regional carriers) for enplanements,
RPMs and ASMs are all forecast at 3.0 percent.
U.S. Carriers - Enplanements
Annual Growth Rate (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
Fiscal Year
Domestic Market
17
International Market
U.S. Carriers - RPMs
Annual Growth Rate (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
(10.0)
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
Fiscal Year
Domestic Market
International Market
U.S. Carriers - ASMs
Annual Growth Rate (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
(10.0)
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
Fiscal Year
Domestic
International
each measure. Airlines will continue to
match capacity growth with traffic growth and
load factor is expected to stabilize around
81.5%. Load factors this high were last seen
in 2014.
The next two years will see some reduction
in growth rates of international demand for
the U.S. carriers with growth averaging
around 1.5, 2.8, and 2.8 percent a year for
enplanements, RPMs, and ASMs, respectively. Subsequently, demand picks up to average 3.0 percent throughout the forecast for
18
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers
International Market
Annual Percent Change
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2018E
2021
2024
ASMs
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
RPMs
2033
2036
2039
Enplanements
0.4 percent. Although the region is forecast
to have the highest economic growth of any
region over the next 20 years, led by China
and India, U.S. carrier enplanements and
RPMs for the Pacific region are forecast to
grow a modest 2.2 and 2.4 percent a year,
respectively. Traffic growth is relatively moderate in part because U.S. carriers continue
to have a majority of their service in the region to Japan as opposed to faster growing
markets.
For U.S. carriers, Latin America remains the
largest international destination despite the
recent economic and political crises in Venezuela and Brazil. Enplanements in 2018
grew an estimated 3.9 percent while RPMs
increased 4.0 percent. Growth is projected
to ease considerably in 2019 and 2020 as
U.S. carriers trim capacity expansion to help
stabilize yields. Enplanements and RPMs
are forecast to increase 1.1 and 1.6 percent,
respectively, in 2019. Over the twenty-year
period 2019-2039, Latin America enplanements are forecast to increase at an average
rate of 3.5 percent a year while RPMs grow
3.8 percent a year.
After slowing in 2015 and 2016, the Atlantic
region saw a strong increase in enplanements of 4.9 percent as well as an increase
in RPMs of 5.4 percent in 2018. However,
the European economies are beginning to
cool and with them enplanement and RPM
growth will slow in coming years. Over the
twenty-year period from 2019 to 2039, enplanements in the Atlantic region (including
the Middle East and Africa) are forecast to
grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent a year while RPMs grow 2.6 percent a
The Pacific region is the smallest in terms of
enplanements despite the economic growth
and potential of air travel to China and India.
In 2018, U.S. carriers saw enplanements decline 4.4 percent from their 2017 levels,
mainly due to declining enplanements to and
from Japan, the region's largest market.
Meanwhile, traffic (RPMs) increased by just
19
As a result, a larger share of the forecast aviation demand in the Atlantic region is linked
to those two areas, particularly in the second
half of the forecast period.
year. While Western Europe is a mature
area with moderate economic growth, the
economically smaller Middle East and Africa
areas are expanding rapidly with GDP
growth rates more than twice that of Europe.
Total Passengers To/From the U.S.
American and Foreign Flag Carriers
600
Millions of Passengers
500
62
54
400
48
42
300
37
200
100
31
43
32
44
86
89
98
85
89
99
2018
2019
2023
90
80
70
61
178
52
153
112
112
130
128
144
161
0
Atlantic*
2027
2031
2035
2039
Calendar Year
L. America
Pacific
Canada Transborder
Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also
received from Transport Canada
* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.
Total passengers (including Foreign Flag
carriers) between the United States and the
rest of the world increased an estimated 5.3
percent in 2018 (244.2 million) as all regions
posted gains led by a 7.1 percent increase in
the Atlantic region.
expected in the Pacific region. Moderate
global economic growth averaging 2.8 percent a year over the next 20 years (20192039) is the foundation for the forecast
growth of international passengers of 3.4
percent a year, as levels double from 244
million to 491 million.
FAA projects total international passenger
growth of 3.9 percent in 2019 as global economic growth eases with the highest growth
The Latin American region is the largest international market and is projected to grow at
20
have somewhat slower growth than the Latin
or Pacific regions. The Atlantic region is forecast to grow at an average rate of 3.0 percent
a year as an increasing share of the passengers in this region come from the Middle East
and Africa markets. Though sizable and
comparable to Mexico in passenger traffic,
the Canadian transborder market is considerably smaller than the Atlantic region. With
solid North American economic growth, Canada transborder passengers are forecast to
grow at an annual average of 3.3 percent a
year over the next 20 years.
the fastest rate (3.5 percent a year) of any
region over the forecast period. Within the
region, Mexico and Dominican Republic are
the two largest markets and are expected to
post average annual growth rates of 3.3 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively.
Powered by economic growth and rising incomes in China, India and South Korea, total
passengers in the Pacific region are forecast
to more than double to 90 million by 2039.
From 2019 to 2039, passengers between the
United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 3.6 percent a year.
Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are
more mature markets and are projected to
Cargo
U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic
spans four regions consisting of Atlantic,
Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’
Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and
international freight/express and mail. The
demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves
in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in
dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative
shipping modes such as trucks, container
ships, and rail cars.
Historically, air cargo activity tracks with
GDP. Other factors that affect air cargo
growth are fuel price volatility, movement of
real yields, and globalization.
The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs)
rely on several assumptions specific to the
cargo industry. First, security restrictions on
air cargo transportation will remain in place.
Second, most of the shift from air to ground
transportation has occurred. Finally, longterm cargo activity depends heavily on economic growth.
U.S. air carriers flew 42.8 billion revenue ton
miles (RTMs) in 2018, up 9.1 percent from
2017 with domestic cargo RTMs increasing
7.7 percent to 15.8 billion while international
RTMs rose 10.0 percent to 27.0 billion. Air
cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 78.7 percent of total RTMs in 2018,
with passenger carriers flying the remainder.
Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers increased 9.5 percent in 2018 while total RTMs
flown by passenger carriers grew by 6.7 percent.
The forecasts of RTMs derive from models
that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of
domestic cargo RTMs use real U.S. GDP as
the primary driver of activity. Projections of
international cargo RTMs depend on growth
in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. FAA forecasts the distribution of RTMs
21
2039 based on increases in capacity for allcargo carriers.
between passenger and all-cargo carriers
based on an analysis of historic trends in
shares, changes in industry structure, and
market assumptions.
International cargo RTMs rose 10.0 percent
in 2018 after posting a 9.7 percent increase
in 2017. Faster economic growth in the U.S.
helped to fuel a pickup in worldwide trade.
Growth in international RTMs remain strong
in 2019 at 6.6 percent as global trade growth
continues to be robust. For the forecast period (2019-2039) international cargo RTMs
are forecast to increase an average of 4.0
percent a year based on projected growth in
world GDP with the Other International region having the fastest growth (5.1 percent),
followed by the Pacific (4.3 percent), Atlantic
(3.1 percent), and Latin America regions (0.8
percent), respectively.
After increasing by 9.1 percent in 2018, total
RTMs are expected to grow 5.8 percent in
2019. Because of steady U.S. and world
economic growth, FAA projects total RTMs
to increase at an average annual rate of 3.3
percent for the balance of the forecast period
(from 2019 to 2039).
Following a 7.7 percent increase in 2018, domestic cargo RTMs are projected to grow 4.5
percent in 2019 as the U.S. economic recovery slows. Between 2019 and 2039, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an
average annual rate of 1.6 percent. In 2018,
all-cargo carriers carried 90.0 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The all-cargo share is
forecast to grow modestly to 91.4 percent by
The share of international cargo RTMs flown
by all-cargo carriers is forecast to increase
from 72.1 percent in 2018 to 78.4 percent by
2039.
22
General Aviation
of the 2010 Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration, which removed cancelled, expired or revoked records
from the Registry. In 2014, the GA fleet recorded its first increase since 2008, which
continued till 2016, and remained stable in
2017. The active GA fleet was estimated as
211,757 aircraft in 2017 (0.0 percent change
from 2016), with 25.2 million hours flown (up
1.5 percent from 2016).
The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours
flown, and utilization rates from the General
Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA
Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the
GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new aircraft deliveries, which use the data from General Aviation Manufacturers Association
(GAMA), together with assumptions of retirement rates, produce growth rates of the fleet
by aircraft categories, which are applied to
the GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts
are carried out for “active aircraft,” 6 not total
aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts
also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including Transportation Research Board (TRB)
meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted twice a year
in May and January.
In 2018, deliveries of the general aviation industry increased in both piston and turbine
segments. Single engine piston deliveries of
the U.S. manufactured aircraft were up 3.5
percent, while the smaller category of multiengine piston deliveries went up by 41.5 percent. Business jet deliveries were up by 17.1
percent, and turboprop deliveries were up by
8.6 percent. Based on figures released by
GAMA, U.S. manufactured general aviation
aircraft deliveries were 1,746 in CY 2018, 9.2
percent more than CY 2017. They amounted
to $11.6 billion in factory net billings. Overall
piston deliveries were up 5.5 percent while
turbine shipments were up by 12.8 percent.
The results of the 2017 GA Survey, the latest
available, were consistent with the results of
surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The estimate of the GA active fleet was in decline between 2007 and 2013, especially between
2011 and 2013, primarily due to the impact
6
An active aircraft is one that flies at least one
hour during the year.
23
General Aviation
U.S. Manufactured Aircraft Shipments and Billings
Shipments
Billings ($B)
$14
2,000
$12
1,500
$10
$8
1,000
$6
$4
500
$2
$0
2009
Source: GAMA
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014 2015
Calendar Year
Shipments
2016
2017
2018
Billings ($ Billion)
2.2 percent a year. The growth in U.S. GDP
and corporate profits are catalysts for the
growth in the turbine fleet.
GAMA and industry experts also reported the
previous slow increase in rotorcraft deliveries
improved in 2018 in both piston and turbine
segments.
The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing
piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink over the
forecast period by 25,645 aircraft (an average annual rate of -0.9 percent). Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing
cost of aircraft ownership, coupled with new
aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers of
the decline.
Against these current conditions, the longterm outlook for general aviation, driven by
turbine aircraft activity, remains stable. The
active general aviation fleet is projected to remain around its current level, with the declines in the fixed-wing piston fleet being offset by increases in the turbine, experimental,
and light sport fleets. The total active general
aviation fleet changes from an estimated
212,875 in 2018 to 211,575 aircraft by 2039.
On the other hand, the smallest category,
light-sport-aircraft, (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 3.6 percent annually, adding
about 2,890 new aircraft by 2039, more than
doubling its 2017 fleet size.
The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is
projected to grow by 15,255 aircraft -- an average rate of 2.0 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbojet fleet increasing
24
Active General Aviation Aircraft
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2009
2019
2029
2039
Calendar Year
Fixed Wing Piston
Rotorcraft
Experimental and Other
Fixed Wing Turbine
LSA
this trend, hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase
2.4 percent yearly over the forecast period.
Jet aircraft are expected to account for most
of the increase, with hours flown increasing
at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent from
2017 to 2039. The large increases in jet
hours result mainly from the increasing size
of the business jet fleet.
Although the total active general aviation
fleet is projected to remain stable, the number of general aviation hours flown is forecast
to increase an average of 0.8 percent per
year through 2039 from 25.2 million in 2017
to 30.3 million, as the newer aircraft fly more
hours each year. Fixed wing piston hours
are forecast to decrease by 0.9 percent, the
same rate as the fleet decline. Countering
25
General Aviation Hours Flown
(in thousands)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2009
2019
2029
2039
Calendar Year
Fixed Wing Piston
Rotorcraft
Experimental and Other
Fixed Wing Turbine
LSA
The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by
certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney
Aeronautical Center. There were 633,317
active pilots certificated by FAA at the end of
2018. All pilot categories, with the exception
of rotorcraft only and recreational only certificates, continued to increase. The FAA has
currently suspended the student pilot forecast for the second year in a row. The number of student pilot certificates has been affected by two recent regulatory changes;
first, the 2010 rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for
pilots under the age of 40 from 36 months to
60 months. The second one, which went into
effect in April 2016 removed the expiration
date on the new student pilot certificates.
The number of student pilots increased from
72,280 in 2009 to 119,119 in 2010. By the
end of 2016 they totaled 128,501 and with no
Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily
impacted by the previous economic downturn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier,
faces the challenges brought by lower oil
prices, a trend which has been stabilizing.
The low oil prices impacted utilization rates
and new aircraft orders both directly through
decreasing activity in oil exploration, and
also through a slowdown in related economic
activity. However, significant use in other activities such as air medical and training continues. Rotorcraft hours are projected to
grow by 2.0 percent annually over the forecast period.
Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 4.4 percent a
year in hours flown, primarily driven by
growth in the fleet.
26
operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data initially
showed a faster decline in commercial pilot
numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of
increase in ATP certificates. Commercial pilot numbers have been increasing for the last
two years, as well as the ATP numbers.
expiration of the new student certificates,
jumped to 149,121 by the end of 2017 and
167,804 by the end of 2018. The 2016 rule
change generates a cumulative increase in
the certificate numbers and breaks the link
between student pilot and advanced certificate levels of private pilot or higher. Because
the change is new, there is not sufficient data
yet to perform a reliable forecast for the student pilots.
The number of active general aviation pilots
(excluding students and ATPs) is projected
to decrease about 13,250 (down 0.2 percent
yearly) between 2018 and 2039. The ATP
category is forecast to increase by 25,755
(up 0.7 percent annually). The much smaller
category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 3.0 percent annually over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private
and commercial pilot certificates are projected to decrease at an average annual rate
of 0.6 and 0.1 percent, respectively until
2039.
Commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates have been impacted by a legislative
change as well. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of
2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled
airline) flight crew members would hold an
ATP certificate by August 2013. Airline pilots
holding a commercial pilot certificate and
mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no longer
27
Active Pilots by Type of Certificate
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2008
2018
2028
2039
Calendar Year
Sport Pilot
Commercial Pilot
Rotorcraft only
Private Pilot
Air Transport Pilots
28
FAA Operations
The growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive growth in operations at FAA facilities over the forecast period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers is
forecast to increase at an average rate of 0.9
percent a year through 2039 from 51.8 million in 2018 to close to 62 million in 2039.
Commercial operations 7 at these facilities
are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year,
five times faster than non-commercial operations. The growth in commercial operations
is less than the growth in U.S. airline passengers (1.5 percent versus 2.0 percent) over
the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and higher load
factors. Both of these trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more passengers
without increasing the number of flights.
General aviation operations (which accounted for 51.2 percent of operations in
2018) are forecast to increase an average of
0.4 percent a year as increases in turbine
powered activity more than offset declines in
piston activity.
of the passengers, about 88 percent in 2018,
in the system fly to.
FAA & Contract Tower
Operations
Operations (000)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2009
2019
2029
Fiscal Year
Commercial
2039
Non Commercial
The growth in operations at towered airports
is not uniform. Most of the activity at large
and medium hubs 8 is commercial in nature,
given that these are the airports where most
Given the growth in airline demand and most
of that demand is at large and medium hubs,
activity at the large and medium hubs is forecast to grow substantially faster than small
towered airports including small FAA towers 9
and FAA contract towers 10. The forecasted
annual growth is 1.6 percent at large hubs,
7
9
Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi categories.
8 Large hub is defined to have 1 percent or more
of total U.S. revenue passenger enplanements in
FY 2018. There are 30 airports in this category.
Medium hub is defined to have at least 0.25 percent but less than 1 percent of total U.S. revenue
passenger enplanements in FY 2018. There are
31 airports classified as medium hubs.
Small FAA towers are defined as towered airports that are neither large or medium hubs nor
FAA contract towers.
10 FAA contract towers are air traffic control towers providing air traffic control services under
contract with FAA, staffed by contracted air traffic
control specialists.
29
a year over the forecast period. General aviation activity at these facilities is projected to
grow only 0.4 percent a year over the forecast.
1.3 at medium hubs, 0.5 percent at small
FAA towers and FAA contract towers between 2019 and 2039.
Among the 30 large hubs, the airports with
the fastest annual growth forecast are those
located along the coastal sections of the
country where most large cities are located.
Large cities have historically shown to generate robust economic activity, which in turn
drives up the airline demand. On the other
hand, the airports forecast to have slower annual growth tend to be located in the middle
of the country.
The number of IFR aircraft handled is the
measure of FAA En-Route Center activity.
Growth in airline traffic and business aviation
is expected to lead to increases in activity at
En-Route centers. Over the forecast period,
aircraft handled at En-Route centers are
forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.4
percent a year. Activity at En-Route centers
is forecast to grow faster than activity at towered airports because more of the activity at
En-Route centers is from the faster growing
commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the
general aviation activity at towered airports,
which is growing more slowly, is local in nature, and does not impact the centers.
FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations 11 are forecast to grow
slightly faster than at towered facilities. This
is in part a reflection of the different mix of
activity at Tracons. Tracon operations are
forecast to increase an average of 1.1 percent a year between 2018 and 2039. Commercial operations accounted for approximately 59 percent of Tracon operations in
2018 and are projected to grow 1.5 percent
11
Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules
(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the
domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR
overflights.
30
U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet
2039 as the fleet shrinks by 12.0 percent
(276 aircraft) between 2018 and 2029. Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire
older small turboprop and piston aircraft,
while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the
E-2 family after 2020. By 2031 only a handful
of 50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By
2039, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 1,877, up from 1,795 in 2018.
The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to
shrink by 71% from 503 in 2018 to 145 by
2039. These aircraft account for just 7.2 percent of the fleet in 2039, down from 21.9 percent in 2018.
The number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 7,397 in
2018 to 8,806 in 2039, an average annual
growth rate of 0.9 percent a year. Increased
demand for air travel and growth in air cargo
is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets.
Between 2018 and 2039 the number of jets
in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to
grow from 4,241 to 5,197, a net average of
51 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body
aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including Eseries aircraft at JetBlue and A220-series at
Delta) is projected to grow 46 aircraft a year
as carriers replace the 757 fleet and current
technology 737 and A320 family aircraft with
the next generation MAX and Neo families.
The wide-body fleet grows by an average of
14 aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9,
787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S.
passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases
by 3 percent over the forecast period.
The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is
forecast to increase from 858 aircraft in 2018
to 1,587 aircraft in 2039 driven by the growth
in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet
fleet is projected to increase by 7 aircraft a
year as 757’s and 737-800’s are converted
from passenger use to cargo service. The
wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase
28 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 777-200,
and new and converted 767-300 aircraft are
added to the fleet, replacing older MD-11,
A300/310, and 767-200 freighters.
The regional carrier fleet is forecast to decline from 2,298 aircraft in 2018 to 2,022 in
31
U.S. Carrier Fleet
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2008
2018
2028
Calendar Year
Mainline NB
Mainline WB
Cargo Jet
Regionals
32
2039
Commercial Space
The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space
Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates
U.S. commercial space launch activities including launch and reentry of vehicles and
operation of non-federal launch and reentry
sites authorized by Executive Order 12465
and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter
509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch
Act). Title 51 and the Executive Order also
direct the U.S. Department of Transportation
to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S.
commercial launches. The FAA’s mission is
to license and regulate commercial launch
and reentry operations and non-federal
launch sites to protect public health and
safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of
the United States. With its dual mission of
regulating and also promoting the emerging
commercial space transportation industry,
FAA faces unique challenges.
The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out by U.S. persons inside or outside the
United States. The FAA does not license
launches or reentries the U.S. Government
carries out for the Government (such as
those operated for and by NASA or the Department of Defense). FAA does not license
or grant permits for amateur-class rockets,
which are unmanned rockets that have less
than 200,000 pound-seconds of total impulse
and cannot reach an altitude greater than
150 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
•
Provides guidance to prospective
commercial operators on how to comply with regulatory requirements for
obtaining an authorization and operating safely,
•
Evaluates applications for licenses,
experimental permits, and safety approvals for launch and reentry operations and related commercial space
activities,
•
Evaluates applications for licenses
for launch and reentry site operations,
•
Monitors and enforces regulatory
compliance through safety inspections of launches, reentries, sites,
and other regulated commercial
space activities,
•
Provides U.S. Government oversight
of investigations associated with the
mishap of an FAA authorized launch
or reentry,
•
Facilitates the integration of commercial space launch and reentry operations into the National Airspace System (NAS) by coordinating airspace
use and regulatory oversight with air
traffic management and Federal
launch ranges,
•
Coordinates research into the safety,
environmental, and operational implications of new technologies and the
evolving commercial space transportation industry,
•
Conducts outreach to the commercial
space industry by hosting working
groups and conferences,
To accomplish its mission, the FAA performs
the following major functions:
•
Maintains an effective regulatory
framework for commercial space
transportation activities by developing regulations and guidance,
33
•
Collaborates with Government partners, such as NASA, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
(DARPA), and the U.S. Air Force to
assure consistent approaches to regulation, policy, and standards, and
•
Conducts outreach to international
counterparts to promote the U.S. regulatory framework across the world.
Pre-Application Consultation for Licenses,
Experimental Permits and Safety Approvals
Prospective applicants seeking commercial
space transportation licenses, experimental
permits, or safety approvals are required by
regulation to consult with FAA before submitting their applications. During this period,
FAA assists them in identifying potential obstacles to authorization issuance and determining potential approaches to regulatory
compliance. The growth in both the number
of commercial space operators and the number of operations will likely increase FAA’s
pre-application consultation workload over
the next five years. Furthermore, many new
operators are seeking to incorporate new
technologies, vehicle types, or operational
models that create challenges for FAA in determining the applicable regulations or approach to regulatory compliance.
In addition to AST headquarters offices in
Washington, D.C., AST maintains field offices near active launch ranges to facilitate
communication with space launch operators
and to implement FAA’s regulatory responsibilities more efficiently. AST personnel are
currently assigned to four field offices in
close proximity to: Kennedy Space Center in
Florida, Johnson Space Center in Texas,
and Vandenberg Air Force Base and the Mojave Air and Space Port in California. Due
to industry expansion, FAA is considering
additional field offices to accommodate the
anticipated increase in launch and reentry
operations in other parts of the United
States. FAA also directly supports NASA’s
commercial space initiatives by providing
on-site staff at both the Johnson Space Center and Kennedy Space Center to coordinate
the FAA’s regulatory and enforcement activities with NASA’s development and operational requirements for commercial space.
Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of
FAA
Licenses, Permits and Safety Approvals
An increasing number of applicants for licenses, permits, safety approvals, and renewals has a direct impact on the number of
launches and reentries at some uncertain
point in the future. Though many licenses
authorize multiple launches (for mature
launch systems), the need remains for FAA
to also issue individual launch licenses for
systems that are still maturing, especially
those systems for human space flight missions. Furthermore, with the dynamic commercial space industry, FAA often evaluates
launch and reentry systems and operations
that are evolving and changing, which may
ultimately require license modifications or issuance of new licenses.
The business cycle from the time a firm first
contacts FAA until the last launch of a licensed operation can be several years.
There are many important activities performed by FAA during this cycle. The most
notable activities are described here.
Inherent in the review process is the requirement to conduct policy reviews and payload
reviews. When conducting a policy review,
FAA determines whether the proposed
launch, reentry, or site operation presents
any issues that would jeopardize public
34
health and safety or the safety of property,
adversely affect U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, or be inconsistent with
international obligations of the United States.
If not otherwise exempt from review, FAA reviews a payload proposed for launch or
reentry to determine whether the payload
would jeopardize public health and safety,
the safety of property, U.S. national security
or foreign policy interests, or the international
obligations of the United States. The policy
or payload determination becomes part of
the licensing record on which FAA’s licensing
determination is based.
evaluates and analyzes the performance and
capabilities of space flight crews to determine how human factors affect overall public
safety risk. As commercial firms become
more involved with human space flight activity, FAA will evaluate, analyze, and determine the health risks to the space flight participants (crew and “passengers”) due to natural and flight-induced launch and reentry
environments, as well as any hazardous
ground operations directly associated with
the flight. FAA will also need to evaluate the
safety of ground operations at spaceports
and exclusive-use sites.
FAA also reviews and issues launch and
reentry site operator licenses and license renewals. FAA additionally reviews and evaluates launch site license applications for
launch sites located in foreign countries but
operating with U.S.-licensed launch or
reentry systems. FAA coordinates range
planning among Federal, state, and local
governments and with the commercial range
operators or users. As part of the evaluation
of applications for launch licenses, reentry licenses, and site operator licenses, FAA also
conducts environmental reviews consistent
with its responsibilities under the National
Environmental Policy Act.
Inspections and Enforcement
FAA currently conducts as many as 400 preflight/ reentry, flight/ reentry, and post-flight/
reentry safety inspections per year, often
conducting several inspections simultaneously, at any of the approximately 20 U.S.
and international commercial space launch
sites. The establishment of non-federal
launch sites requires additional inspections
in areas such as ground safety that have traditionally been overseen by the U.S. Air
Force at Federal ranges. At spaceports and
launch sites with high launch rates (e.g.,
Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Vandenberg Air Force Base, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, and Spaceport America),
at least 85 percent of the inspections must be
conducted by locally-based field inspectors
in order to respond to a dynamic operational
tempo, minimize cost, and increase efficiency.
FAA anticipates issuing a growing number of
safety approvals for space launch systems
equipment, processes, technicians, training
and other supporting activities. FAA reviews
safety approvals to support the continued introduction of new safety systems, safety operations applications, and safety approval renewal applications.
Mishap Investigations
Recent mishap events have demonstrated
that FAA must have the capacity to investigate at least two space launch or reentry mishaps or accidents simultaneously anywhere
in the world, and to lead/oversee as many as
six investigations during a single year. FAA
must have the capabilities and resources to
Safety Analyses
FAA conducts flight safety, system safety,
maximum probable loss, and explosive
safety analyses to support the evaluation and
issuance of licenses and permits. FAA also
35
made several important improvements to its
operations forecast:
safely perform the investigations lasting as
long as 16 weeks at remote sites with limited
infrastructure or facilities. FAA must have
the capability and resources to efficiently review all applicant mishap plans and accident
investigation procedures as part of the license and permit evaluation process.
NAS Integration
The FAA works in partnership across all its
organizations to ensure the safe and efficient
integration of commercial space operations
with aviation activities. This includes an increased presence at the Air Traffic Control
System Command Center and other locations to assist in the strategic and tactical
planning of launch and reentry operations, as
well as to provide support during these operations. Further, FAA will continue the development of technologies to facilitate safe and
efficient integration of commercial launch
and reentry operations into the NAS, including technologies to improve the integration of
launch and reentry data into FAA air traffic
control systems and technologies to improve
the timely and accurate development and
distribution of notices of aircraft hazard areas.
•
In 2015, FAA began using planned
launch and reentry data collected
from operators and prospective applicants as the starting point for its
launch and reentry forecasts. This
change enabled FAA to simplify and
improve its forecasting methodology
by tying launch and reentry forecasts
directly to anticipated operations by
commercial space transportation firms
known to FAA, rather than to aggregate industry demand.
•
Because commercial spaceflight is a
highly dynamic and rapidly evolving
industry, it was quickly determined
that operator-provided data alone
were not a reliable indicator of future
activity. There is a natural, inherent
bias by industry to be optimistic
about their business prospects.
Consequently, FAA adopts a cautionary view of what industry representatives say will happen versus
what may reasonably be expected to
happen. A primary pillar of FAA’s
forecasting methodology is to err on
the side of caution and take a conservative view of industry growth.
Therefore, in 2016, FAA began refining its forecasting methodology by
using observations about historical
launch activity to establish better
forecasting parameters for both new
applicants and existing operators.
FAA’s Operations Forecast
To improve its workforce planning process,
in 2014, FAA adopted an approach to estimate its future staffing needs based on the
ratio of regulatory safety oversight staff to a
forecast of launch and reentry operations
within the purview of the FAA mission. Although it was a modest improvement, this
change set the groundwork for FAA to implement a more objective and transparent process for projecting staffing requirements and
also necessitated development of credible operations forecasts. Since 2014, FAA has
Based on proprietary information available
to FAA, an increase in launch and reentry activities expected in the coming years. There
are several factors that magnify the challenges associated with predicting the number of launches and reentries to expect in a
given year. They include:
•
36
the list of firms intending to launch or
actually launch is dynamic,
•
•
•
•
at the same time, early use of these technologies can increase the probability of a mishap. A mishap can derail launch plans for
one or more firms. Investigations and subsequent “return to flight” for firms impacted by a
mishap can take months to years.
the continued development of new
technologies,
launch rates for reusable launch vehicles,
dynamic nature of flight test programs, and
mishaps.
Taking these factors into account, the following table and graph provide historical activity
and FAA’s forecast through fiscal year 2021.
For example, the number of firms actively
communicating with FAA increased from 14
in August of 2014 to 79 four years later, an
increase of more than 550 percent. New
technologies [e.g., reusable launch vehicles
(RLVs)] allow a faster operational tempo, and
37
Fiscal Year
Actual/Forecast
FAA Licensed and Permitted
Launches and Reentry Operations
2013
Actual
20
2014
Actual
20
2015
Actual
14
2016
Actual
17
2017
Actual
22
2018
Actual
35
2019
Forecast
33 – 44
2020
Forecast
35 – 54
2021
Forecast
33 – 56
Notes:
1. Forecast entries represent the Low to High estimate.
2. Six mishaps in 2015 caused the number of launch and reentry operations to fall
significantly from the previous year rather than increase as expected.
38
reentry sites, and some firms are seeking to
establish launch sites for their exclusive use.
This added launch capacity sets the stage for
simultaneous operations and an increase in
the number operations per year.
It is important to note that the operations included in the forecast will occur at a variety
of locations throughout the National Airspace
System (NAS). That is, not all launch and
reentry activity occurs at one location, for example, at Cape Canaveral, Florida. In the
past year, FAA licensed launches and reentries throughout the NAS and beyond, including multiple reentries in the Pacific Ocean
and one licensed launch from New Zealand.
Furthermore, the forecast above only accounts for launches and reentries licensed
by FAA. It does not include launch activity
for the rest of the world, and it is not tied exclusively to satellite demand.
New Markets for Commercial Space Transportation are Emerging
The continuing development of commercial
space transportation technology has spurred
new markets for commercial space transportation services. As private industry continues
to develop and test new vehicles capable of
taking space flight participants on suborbital
and orbital flights, companies and organizations are proposing to offer human space
flight training and several organizations have
already begun to provide this service. States
and municipalities have sought to open new
spaceports to attract commercial space
transportation and associated high-tech
firms and create business hubs for research
and development. Since 2008, the NASA
has managed the Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) program, which acquires transportation services from commercial providers
to deliver cargo to and from the International
Space Station (ISS). NASA is also working
with commercial companies under its Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities
contract to develop vehicles that will provide
transportation for astronauts and international partners to and from the ISS. Commercial Crew vehicles developed by
SpaceX and Boeing are expected to commence test flights during 2019, followed by
crewed operational launches licensed by the
FAA. NASA is also seeking proposals from
industry for a program called Commercial Lunar Payload Services. The commercial vehicles used by NASA for cargo and crew transportation will have other commercial applications that increase the capabilities of the
commercial space transportation industry as
Additional Factors Affecting Forecast
Accuracy
Commercial space transportation is a rapidly
evolving industry. The industry’s growth
through technological innovation and the development of new markets increases the
challenges associated with forecasting commercial space transportation operations.
New Commercial Launch Technologies and
Operations are Emerging on an Accelerated
Basis
The commercial space transportation industry is exploring a variety of new technologies
and new approaches to space launch and
reentry. In late 2015, both Blue Origin and
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
(SpaceX) successfully demonstrated the reusability of their rockets, a development that
could significantly reduce the cost of operations and lead to an increase in the number
of launch and reentry operations per year.
Other U.S. commercial entities are also pursuing the development of reusable launch
vehicles (RLVs). At the same time, state and
local governments are joining with commercial firms to promote additional launch and
39
Looking further afield, there are several companies in the regulatory pipeline seeking authority to land commercial vehicles on the
Moon, establish private-sector space stations, service satellites on-orbit, and establish launch sites using non-traditional technologies like railguns and tube launchers.
Extensive FAA resources will be needed to
determine how these unprecedented commercial space ventures will impact public
safety and U.S. national interests.
a whole. In 2018, DARPA announced the
DARPA Launch Challenge, which incentivizes the commercial space industry to design
launch systems with the ability to launch
small payloads to orbit on extremely short
notice, with no prior knowledge of the payload, destination orbit or launch site, and do
it not just once, but twice, in a matter of days.
DARPA required launch operators to submit
applications in March 2019 and expects the
competition launches to occur at the end of
2019. Historically, prizes such as the Ansari
X PRIZE and the Northrop Grumman Lunar
Lander Challenge have caused a surge in
commercial space licensing activity, so we
expect the same from the DARPA Launch
Challenge.
40
Unmanned Aircraft Systems
Over the last 5 years, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) have been experiencing healthy
growth in the United States and around the
world. UAS consists of the unmanned aircraft platform and its associated elements-including communication links, sensors, software and power supply-- that are required for
the safe and efficient operation in the national airspace system (NAS). While the introduction of UAS in the NAS has opened up
numerous possibilities, it has also brought
operational challenges including safe integration into the NAS. Despite these challenges, the UAS sector holds enormous
promise. Uses may include modelers experimenting with small UAS (sUAS), performing
numerous functions including aerial photography and personal recreational flying. At
the same time commercial operators may be
experimenting with package and medical
supply delivery and providing support for
search and rescue missions.
FAA will continue to enable the thriving UAS
industry, with the safe integration of UAS into
the NAS.
Trends in Model Aircraft and Forecast
The FAA’s online registration system went
into effect on Dec. 21, 2015. This required
all UAS weighing more than 0.55 pounds
(250 grams) and less than 55 pounds to be
registered using the on-line system
(https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/registration/) or by using the existing (paper-based) aircraft registry. In May,
2017, a U.S. Appeals Court Order caused a
temporary halt in UAS registration. Subsequently, the registration requirement for all
model aircraft owners was reinstated in December 2017 with the 2018 National Defense
Authorization Act (NDAA). Despite the temporary halt, registration’s pace continued beyond May, 2017. The latest FAA reauthorization codifies
the requirement
[see
https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=91844 for more details].
This section provides a broad landscape
covering model and non-model aircraft 12 and
their recent trends as gleaned from trends in
registration, overall market and operational
information. Using these trends and insights
from industry, the FAA has produced several
areas of forecasts for UAS. Forecasts reported in this section are driven primarily by
the assumption of continuing evolution of the
regulatory environment (i.e., unconstrained
environment), the commercial ingenuity of
manufacturers and operators and underlying
demand, including business models. The
With the continuing registration, more than
900,000 owners had already registered with
the FAA by Sept. 2018. Monthly owner registration averaged around 8,000-9,000 during Jan.-Dec., 2018, with some expected
peaks during the holiday season and summer.
12
These are also called, interchangeably, hobby
and non-hobby UAS, respectively. In previous
notes including other documents of the Agency,
these terms are often interchanged.
41
Unlike non-model counterparts, the registration rules do not require modelers to register
each individual aircraft; only owners are registered. Each owner registers, and each
owner might have multiple UAS. Exceptions
may be registered modelers with no owned
equipment. Notwithstanding these challenges, there is information available for both
industry and academia, allowing us to understand aircraft ownership. Furthermore, under the sponsorship of the UAS Integration
Research Plan, the Agency has launched
various research activities to understand the
possible magnitude of the sector as well as
implications for likely aircraft that may be
used for model flying and safety implications
for the UAS fleet from gradual integration into
NAS. The forecasts presented use all available resources to analyze and forecast both
model and non-model activities in the U.S.
The pace of registration in 2018 slowed considerably compared to 2016 and 2017.
Monthly owner registration now stands at
half of what was observed a year ago.
Model registration and thus ownership of
sUAS is distributed throughout the country.
Using the data as available in Sept 2018, a
spatial distribution of ownership by zip code
below demonstrates that sUAS continue to
be distributed throughout the country with
denser ownership mapping closely against
the population centers of the country, as expected.
With over 900,000 modelers registered as of
December 31, 2018, we estimate that there
are around 1.25 million drones distinctly
identified as model aircraft. Comparing with
industry sales and other data noted above,
we conclude that model aircraft is almost 40
percent higher than ownership registration 13.
A comparison of last year’s data with this
year’s (2018) shows that the annual growth
rate to be around 13 percent. This continues
to be substantial growth as anticipated from
the introduction of drones as a recreation activity facilitated by falling equipment prices
and improved technology, such as built-in
cameras and relatively easy maneuvering.
13
This calculation involves taking into account retirement, redundancy, and loss of craft corresponding to ownership registration. As craft becomes sturdier and operators situationally aware,
we expect this rate to change dynamically over
time.
42
model on registration trends. Using these,
we forecast that the model fleet will likely
(i.e., base scenario) attain its peak over the
next 5 years, climbing from the present 1.25
million units to around 1.39 million units by
2023. The high/optimistic scenario may be
estimated at 1.66 million units over the next
5 years. As evident, the growth rates underlying these numbers are fairly steady in the
initial years but are diminishing faster in the
last 2-3 years. The gradual saturation that is
projected in 5 years and beyond in the model
aircraft fleet parallels other consumer technology products.
However, like in all other technologies including hobby items, (e.g., cell phones and video
game consoles; and prior to that, video cameras, and video players), the trend in model
aircraft is likely to slow as the pace of falling
prices diminishes and the early adopters
begin to experience limits in their experiments or simply eagerness plateaus.
Total Recreation/Model Fleet
year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
(Million sUAS Units)
Low
Base
1.25
1.25
1.29
1.31
1.31
1.35
1.31
1.37
1.32
1.38
1.32
1.39
High
1.25
1.35
1.44
1.52
1.59
1.66
Survey of Non-Model Aircraft Owners
Before we describe non-model sUAS trends
and forecasting in the next section, we provide a brief overview of results from a prototype survey that the FAA undertook during
June-July, 2018. The results provide likely
growth path in the near future. The survey,
based on a well-tested questionnaire, was
sent by the FAA to individuals registered by
December 31, 2017 and conducting activities
under Part 107 (i.e., non-model or commercial activities) in that year. The response rate
to the survey was approximately 8 percent
(7,400 responses from 89,000 contacted).
The survey was designed primarily to get a
snapshot of non-model/commercial mission
characteristics including location, types of
aircraft used, and altitude flown. In addition
to providing the FAA key data in understanding operational characteristics of non-model
activities throughout the country, these key
metrics are also important for understanding
trends in non-model activities and likely
growth trajectory in the near future.
Given the trend in registration and market developments, we forecast that the model aircraft market will saturate at around 1.4 million
units. However, there are still some upside
uncertainties due to further changes in technology and the likely event of continuously
falling prices. This yields to some upside uncertainty in the forecast. We do not anticipate similar symmetry in low side as it parallels to the growth in the base projection.
Nevertheless, we provide a forecast base
(i.e., likely) with high (or optimistic) and low
(or pessimistic) scenarios, provided in the table above. The FAA projects, unlike in previous years, that this sector may have exhausted downside risks; i.e., decline in registration beyond saturation as captured by
base forecast.
We use the trend observed in registrations,
particularly over the past year, expert opinions collected in TRB annual workshops, review of available industry forecasts, market/industry research, and a time-series
43
Registrants with one aircraft and those who
owned/operated multiple aircraft responded
almost equally as the figure above shows.
The average number of aircraft among multiple registrants was around 3 with a margin of
error of + 0.2. Survey sample was representative when checked against the population from the Registry.
Turning to distribution of ownership, we observe that almost 1 in 3 survey respondents
used one sUAS compared to 55 percent from
the population (i.e., the Registry). For those
who operate multiple sUAS, a large group
(54 percent) falls into the category of operating 2-9 sUAS, as compared to only 1 in 3 in
that category from the Registry or population
counts. For operators with over 10 sUAS,
survey response (15 percent) were closer to
what we observe in the Registry (12 percent).
This distribution provides valuable information regarding the use intensity of sUAS
by both single and multiple owners.
The survey reveals that most of the nonmodel UAS are light UAS, those weighing 5
lbs or less. This result was the same as in
the Registry. The figure below shows the
distribution among the responses from single
sUAS users:
A similar distribution is reflected in responses
from multiple aircraft owners, although the
weight of the classes are skewed more towards the medium (5-24 lbs) and heavy (2555 lbs):
Bigger variations are observed between single and multiple sUAS when asked about in-
44
tensity of operations as captured by the number of missions 14 in 2017. It is apparent from
the table below, the more one operates (i.e.,
multiple owners) sUAS, the more missions
they fly during the year; i.e., over twice as
many as the single operator. On average,
while a single operator flies 32 missions/year, multiple owner/operators flew
more than twice that number (82 missions,
on average):
Trends in Non-Model Aircraft and Forecast
pace accelerated to 14,600 registrations a
month during the last year (2018). The nonmodel sector is primarily commercial in nature. It is dynamic and appears to be at an
inflexion point of demonstrating powerful
stages of growth. Unlike the model sector,
we anticipate that the growth rate in this sector will continue to accelerate over the next
few years. Since initiation of Part 107, there
has been proposed rule changes (see
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/02/13/2019-00732/operation-ofsmall-unmanned-aircraft-systems-over-people. The requirements would address operations over people, operations at night without waivers and possibilities for waivers including enhancement of operational efficiencies. They would also address more commercial uses that will likely facilitate further
growth. Notably, a single point for submission of all operational information, including
Unlike model ownership, rules for non-model
registration require owners to register each
sUAS, thus giving a one-to-one correspondence between registration and aircraft. For
the calendar year 2018, more than 175,000
non-model owners/operators registered their
equipment. The pace of monthly registration, almost 15,000, is nearly 3-times higher
than the pace at which non-model aircraft
owners registered their craft during the same
time last year. While the pace of model registration ownership has slowed down considerably, interestingly, the pace of registration
is accelerating for non-model counterparts.
By the end of 2018, there were more than
277,000 non-model aircraft registered since
registration opened.
Since the registration process has been
available through Dec 2017, over 4,600 aircraft per month have been registered. This
14
Missions were described as a job or economic
activity consisting of many take-offs/landings.
45
fell short by almost 80 percent for 2018 (or
277,000 actual aircraft vs 158,900 that we
projected last year). The significant growth
in this sector over the past year demonstrates the uncertainty and potential of the
market.
registration, authorization, and accident logging, helps facilitate this growth further
[https://faadronezone.faa.gov/#/].
Given the trend observed in the registrations,
information from the survey, review of available industry forecasts, and internal research, together with market/industry research, we project that the non-model fleet
by 2023 will likely (i.e., base scenario) be
three times larger than the current number of
non-model aircraft 15. As the present base
(i.e. cumulative total) gets larger, we anticipate the growth rate of the sector will slow
down over time. Nevertheless, the sector will
be much larger than what we understood as
recently as last year. Given the accelerated
registration over the last year, we now project
the non-model sUAS sector will have over
835,000 aircraft in 2023 (i.e., end of 5-year
period). Important to note here is that last
year’s forecasted sUAS for 2022 (452,000
units) will be surpassed sometime towards
the later part of 2019 or early 2020 if the present registration trend continues. This will
shorten the forecast outcome period by almost 2-3 years.
As in the case of model UAS ownership, nonmodel sUAS are distributed across the country. A spatial distribution of equipment registration (using data for September 2018)
demonstrates that non-model sUAS are distributed throughout the country with denser
activities mapping closely against the economic or commercial activities of the country.
Last year, we forecasted that the non-model
sector would have around 229,400 sUAS in
2019, a growth rate exceeding 44 percent
from the year before (2018). Actual data far
exceeds that trend with over 277,000 aircraft
already registered by the end of 2018. Our
forecast of non-model sUAS last year thus
In order to understand the growth trajectory
of the sector better, we divide the non-model
sector into two types of UAS aircraft: consumer grade and professional grade. The
consumer grade non-model aircraft are
priced in a wide range, somewhere below US
15
Last year, this ratio (from base year of forecast
to end-year of forecast) was 4-times; i.e., we projected forecast to be 4-times the base year’s
(2017) numbers in 5-year.
46
ther enhanced by, for example, the Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability
(LAANC) system 17, which began authorization in May, 2018. LAANC is designed to allow considerable flexibility in sUAS operations and facilitate non-modelers’ use of the
NAS. While most of the near-term growth in
non-model sUAS will continue to come from
consumer grade (over 90 percent), we anticipate a significant part will come from professional grade non-model sUAS as well.
$10,000 with an average unit price of around
$2,500. The professional grade is typically
priced above US $10,000, with an average
unit price assumed to be around $25,000 16.
For both consumer grade and professional
grade aircraft, the average price has been
falling over time, particularly over the last
three years. Currently, the consumer grade
dominates the non-model sector with a market share approaching 95 percent. However,
as the sector matures and the industry begins to consolidate, the share of consumer
grade non-model aircraft is likely to decline
but will still be dominant. By 2023, FAA projects this sub-sector will have around 85 percent share of the overall non-model sUAS
sector.
As non-model aircraft become operationally
more efficient and safe, battery life expands
and integration continues, new business
models will begin to develop, thus enhancing
robust supply-side responses. These responses, in turn, will pull demand forces
(e.g., consumer responses to receiving commercial packages; routine blood delivery to
hospitals, search-and-rescue operations,
etc.) that are somewhat latent and at the experiment stage, at present. Unlike a developed sector such as passenger air transportation, it is impossible to put a marker on “intrinsic demand” (or core demand), primarily
driven by economic and demographic factors, underlying this sector. Nevertheless, an
attempt has been made to capture the lowrange to the projected demand. Hence, we
provide the likely or base scenario together
with the enormous potential embodied in the
Starting from a low base of around 13,000
aircraft in 2018, professional grade nonmodel sUAS sub-sector stands to expand
rapidly over time, especially as newer and
more sophisticated uses are identified, designed, and operationally planned and flown.
If, for example, professional grade sUAS
meets feasibility criteria of operations, safety,
regulations, and satisfies economics and
business principles and enters into the logistics chain via delivering small packages, the
growth in this sector will likely be phenomenal. This growth trajectory may even be fur-
16
Because of this wide range in prices between
types of sUAS in commercial activities, start-up
cost for a business may vary somewhere between $2,500 and $25,000.
17 Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability [https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_data_exchange/] or LAANC automated the application/approval process for airspace authorizations. Requests submitted via
FAA approved UAS Service Suppliers (USS) are
checked against airspace data in the FAA UAS
Data Exchange such as temporary flight restrictions, NOTAMS and the UAS Facility Maps
(UASFM). Approved requests thus provide the
FAA ATO visibility into where and when planned
drone operations will take place.
47
next. Increasingly, state and local governments are using sUAS for emergency services including search-and-rescue operations and presently employ around 3 percent
of all non-model sUAS. As the sector grows,
we anticipate there will be many more uses
of non-model sUAS as they are increasingly
evident from the participants’ activities, for
example, under the Integration Pilot Program
(IPP). In May, 2018 the FAA awarded 10
communities, among a pool of 149 applications,
[https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_integration_pilot_program/awardees/] to participate in the
IPP. IPP applications and preliminary data
indicate that awardees overwhelmingly plan
to undertake numerous commercial and public interest activities.
“high” scenario, representing cumulative annual growth rates of 25 percent and 36 percent, respectively. In the event of unforeseen slowdown or obstacles, “low” scenario
projects a cumulative growth rate of around
17 percent annually.
Total non-Model Fleet
year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
(no. of '000 units)
Low
Base
277
277
369
400
460
545
552
711
588
789
603
835
High
277
426
638
932
1,112
1,290
Non-model sUAS are presently used for numerous purposes. The survey of non-model
sUAS aircraft owners reveals their present
uses as follows:
One way of identifying early trends of nonmodel sUAS uses is to analyze the waiver
applications granted to non-model sUAS operators. Both the magnitude and relative
composition of waiver types may indicate the
direction of the non-model sUAS sector as a
whole. A breakdown of the waiver requests
granted in December 2018 is shown in the
chart below:
Non-model sUAS are used extensively in
carrying out research and development
(R&D), and in training-education missions
(21 percent), followed by filming events including weddings, entertainment and sports
(21 percent), industrial/utility and in environmental projects such as aerial inspection (16
percent) followed by real estate (13 percent)
and in construction activities (8 percent). Agriculture (7 percent) including crop inspection; and press and media (5 percent) come
Beyond what is presently allowed under existing Part 107, expanding non-model applications further would require waivers, to a
large extent, for night operations, (1 in 5
waivers) and operating limitations of altitude
(1.9 percent). Many of these waivers are
combined, and hence, total waivers granted
48
(over 2100 in December 2018) exceed 100
percent. The Agency issues these waivers
to facilitate commercial activities by nonmodel sUAS while preparing for the next
round of regulations. New regulations seek
to amend the present waiver requirements.
(See https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/02/13/2019-00732/operation-ofsmall-unmanned-aircraft-systems-over-people for current notice of proposed rulemaking
(NPRM) on operations of small unmanned
aircraft over people in certain conditions and
operations of small UAS at night without obtaining a waiver). Analysis of these waiver
applications allows us to understand the industry trends, one of many metrics essential
for understanding and projecting both the trajectory, course corrections, and growth
trends of the sector.
Finally, LAANC continues to routinely provide auto-approval. It has provided, so far,
over 47,000 auto-approvals for airspace access requests, while sending over 7,000 for
further coordination. LAANC authorizations
are facilitated by combining UAS facility
maps
(UASFM)
[https://faa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappvi
ewer/index.html?id=9c2e4406710048e19806ebf6a
06754ad] that provide maximum allowed altitudes around airports where the FAA may
authorize Part 107 UAS operations without
additional safety analysis. The UASFMs are
used to inform requests for Part 107 airspace
authorizations and waivers in controlled airspace.
Almost 50 percent of airspace authorizations
and waivers were approved for the controlled
airspaces at the end of December, 2018.
While over half of them were for class D airspace (i.e., smaller airports with control towers), other classes were also requested and
regularly flown.
Survey responses show that while most of
the respondents routinely fly in Class G airspace (almost 60 percent), there are quite a
few users, who fly within controlled airspace
facilitated by the airspace waivers.
Remote Pilot Forecast
An important final metric in non-model sUAS
is the trend in remote pilot (RP) certifications.
RPs primarily facilitate non-model sUAS
49
the base of 116,027 RPs in 2018, non-model
activities may require almost 350,000 RPs in
5 years, a three-fold increase, providing tremendous opportunities for growth in employment associated with commercial activities of
UAS. Potential for RPs may enhance even
more if larger UAS are used in commercial
activities and urban air mobility becomes a
reality in the near future.
flights for commercial activities. As of December 2018, more than 116,000 RP certifications have been issued 18. Over 90 percent
of those who took the exam passed and obtained RP certification. The RP forecasts
presented below are based on using two
data sources: (a) trends in total RPs; and (b)
trends in non-model sUAS registration and
forecasts of fleet. Given the trends in registration and our forecast of non-model fleet,
we assume that one pilot is likely to handle
2.4 units of non-model sUAS.
Urban Air Mobility
In Sept 2017, NASA launched a market
study for a segment crossing over some
functions of UAS discussed above. This segment of autonomous vehicles broadly called
Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is defined as “a
safe and efficient system for air passenger
and cargo transportation within an urban
area, inclusive of small package delivery and
other urban unmanned aircraft systems
(UAS) services, which supports a mix of
onboard/ground-piloted and increasingly autonomous
operations”
(see
https://www.nasa.gov/aero/nasa-embraces
urban-air-mobility). Studies sponsored by
NASA were undertaken by two consulting
firms and are presently under review from expertise within the government and academia.
Executive summaries of the two reports suggest (https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc), broadly
speaking, the following: (a) UAS may play a
significant role in transforming short-haul urban air transportation, e.g., airport shuttle, air
taxi, air ambulance, last-mile parcel delivery,
etc.; (b) substantial financial and business
opportunities exist, but there are significant
technological, operational, and regulatory
challenges including issues involving public
Using these assumptions and combined with
the base scenario of non-model sUAS forecast, we project RPs in the graph below. Last
year, we projected RPs to be around
106,000 by the end of 2018; which fell short
by 10,000 by the end of 2018. However, the
registration of non-model sUAS far exceeded, as noted earlier, what we projected
last year.
Given these, we made the adjustment to RPs
per non-model aircraft, thus increasing it by
one more unit than last year. Despite this adjustment, RPs are set to experience tremendous growth following the growth trends of
the non-model sUAS sector. Starting from
18
In our accounting of RPs, we take pilots who
passed the initial knowledge test plus current
manned pilots who took online training in lieu of
the knowledge tests.
50
perceptions and acceptance; and (c) gradual
integration of sUAS into the overall system
may facilitate integration of UAM by around
2030.
of GCs, will be to “promote public confidence
in UAM safety and facilitate community-wide
learning while capturing the public’s imagination” (see https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc for
more details).
In order to understand and address the challenges identified by the studies, the new
Grand Challenge (GC) has been initiated,
under which NASA will host UAM ecosystem-wide challenges in 2020. Under GC,
participants will be required to execute system level safety and integration within operationally robust and relevant environments.
The goal of the first GC (GC-1), from a series
As the sector grows and new initiatives are
taken, the Agency is keeping a keen eye on
understanding the overall trends.
51
Forecast Uncertainties
per barrel by 2030. However, there are other
oil price forecasts that are considerably more
aggressive than the FAA base forecast. The
latest Energy Information Administration
(EIA) Annual Energy Outlook released in
January 2019, sees oil prices rising approximately 3.5% per year between 2018 and
2050. By 2040, the spot price of oil ranges
between $166 per barrel (West Texas Intermediate) to $174 per barrel (Brent), considerably above the FAA base forecast of $98.
Over the long run, lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending,
including air travel, and should enhance industry profitability. In the case where oil
prices turn out to be higher than the FAA
forecast, we would expect lower spending on
air travel by consumers, higher costs for fuel
to airlines and reduced industry profitability.
The forecasts in this document are forecasts
of aviation demand, driven by models built on
forecasts of economic activity. There are
many assumptions in both the economic
forecasts and in the FAA models that could
affect the degree to which these forecasts
are realized. This year’s forecast is driven,
at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the U.S. and
global economies. Shifting international dynamics and impacts resulting from the U.S.
administration’s economic policies could
drive further changes. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest worldwide risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist
incident aimed at aviation could have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be
greater than its impact on overall economic
activity.
The baseline forecast incorporates the December 2017 U.S. tax cuts and some additional infrastructure spending in 2019 and
beyond. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of these programs that ultimately determines the impact on the future growth of the
U.S. economy. In addition, how the U.S. will
engage with the rest of the global economy
over the next several years continues to be
evolve. Under the right conditions, a period
of sustained high and more inclusive growth
along with increased financial stability could
occur but there is also the possibility of an
outcome that leads to greater global economic fragmentation, slower growth, and increased financial instability.
Although oil prices remained below $65 per
barrel for most of 2018, the recent volatility
reminds us there is still considerable uncertainty as to the future direction of oil prices.
The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from
economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s February 2019 U.S. macro forecast
and 30-Year Focus released during the
fourth quarter of 2018) calls for oil prices to
decrease to $59 per barrel in 2021 and rise
gradually thereafter. By 2031 oil prices are
projected to be $85 per barrel and approach
$100 per barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2039. Some forecasters are calling
for a more gradual rebound in the price of oil.
In October 2018, the World Bank released its
latest commodity price forecast. The forecast calls for oil prices to rise to $74 per barrel in 2019, but then decline to $69 in 2020.
After 2020 prices rise slowly and reach $70
The baseline forecast assumes that global
economic growth will slow in 2019-2021 from
its 2018 rate, as weakness in Europe and a
slowdown in China constrains global growth.
52
top 6 (American, Delta, United, Southwest)
plus Alaska/Virgin and JetBlue accounted for
more than 85% of the U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic. For many low cost carriers,
the sheer size of merger transactions or the
amount of risk associated with a merger
makes further merger activity unlikely. For
the network carriers, it is unclear how regulatory authorities will respond to any future
proposed mergers.
Thereafter, the baseline forecast assumes
that China and India will be growth engines
for emerging economies as China successfully transitions the economy from reliance
on heavy manufacturing and resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India continues to implement reforms to make its
economy more competitive. In the United
States, economic growth appears to be slowing from 2018’s level as the effects of the tax
cuts on demand begin to wane, and at the
same time there remains concerns about the
strength of demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be
constrained by structural economic problems
(high debt, slow population growth, weak
public finances for example) and the outcome of political elections. Furthermore, the
actions taken to stabilize the global economy
during the Great Recession continue to hamper economic policy makers. In some of the
major advanced economies, concerns have
been expressed by some political leaders
that central banks have raised interest rates
too quickly and have hampered the recovery.
Additionally, governments in these economies need to shore up their finances and recent actions have many analysts concerned
that policy makers will not take the steps
needed. There exists a non-trivial possibility
that authorities will either act prematurely or
be excessively timid and late in taking necessary steps to maintain a healthy global
economy. The current forecasts assume
strong passenger growth for travel between
the United States and other world regions.
Further slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously inhibit the growth in global
passenger demand.
The forecast assumes the addition of sizable
numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90
seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, network carrier consolidation and new
rules on pilot training have left regional carriers saddled with either excess capacity or a
lack of pilots. Although air travel demand
continues to recover, the bankruptcy filing of
Republic Airlines in February 2016 is a reminder that financial pressures on regional
operators have not abated. Network carriers
continue to adjust the size and breadth of
their networks. In many cases there are not
opportunities for regional carriers to backfill
the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well
along in its plans to reduce its small (read 50
seat) regional jet fleet and brought its total to
just 119 at the end of 2018, down from almost 500 at the end of 2009. United has
reduced the number of small regional jets
flown by its partners from an estimated 380
in 2012 to 304 by the end of 2018. However,
it plans to add 9 more small regional jets to
its fleet in 2019 as part of its latest expansion
plan. Meanwhile American has trimmed its
small regional jet fleet by 93 aircraft since the
beginning of 2015 from 297 to 204 aircraft
and has plans to retire an additional 19 aircraft in 2019, and a further 12 in 2020. At the
same time the carrier plans to add 31 larger
regional jets to its fleet in 2019, and 13 more
in 2020. While these actions may provide
The outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be
rather limited. Based on FY 2018 data, the
53
Other factors, such as new and more efficient
product offerings like supersonic business
jets serve to broaden the potential of the industry and can make corporate jet travel look
increasingly appealing.
some opportunities for well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact of consolidation so far has been to reduce opportunities for regional flying substantially.
After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, partial recovery of business and
corporate aviation continues. The future
pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is based largely upon the prospects for economic growth and corporate
profits. Uncertainty in these leading indicators poses a risk to the forecast, but the risk
is not limited to these factors. Other influences, such as potential environmental regulations and taxes do not seem to be as
much of a concern in the short term, but over
the long term, uncertainties about the direction of these influences may place downward
pressure on the forecast. On the other hand,
the close relationships between corporate
profits and purchase of business jets have
been weakened since 2009. Increases of
the past few years in real corporate profits
have not translated into demand for new
business aircraft yet, possibly because of
perceived economic and political uncertainties. With the U.S. administration’s emphasis
on policies designed to stimulate economic
growth and limit regulation, and the favorable
terms of the new tax law, companies are feeling more optimistic about their future prospects that can translate into additional business jet sales. The impact of fuel price
movements on business aircraft demand is
also uncertain. Overall, the positive effect of
declining fuel prices on corporate profits
transforms to increased demand for business aircraft. However, business aircraft demand from energy related industries will be
negatively impacted if fuel prices remain low
(by historic standards) for an extended period in the future.
Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at
most large hubs expected to increase over
the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is
changing for this same period. The expected
increases in the numbers of larger regional
jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS into
the national airspace system will make the
FAA’s job more challenging. This change in
the mix of aircraft will most likely add to workload above and beyond the increasing demand for aviation services resulting from the
growth in operations over the forecast period.
While overall activity at FAA and contract
towers increased 2.9 percent in 2018, activity
at large and medium hub airports (60 in total)
increased 2.3 percent in 2018 and delays remained at historically high levels at many
U.S. airports. FAA forecasts operations at
these airports to grow substantially faster
than the overall national trend. As demand
continues to grow and workload increases,
congestion and delays could become critical
limits to growth over the forecast period.
FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume
that there will be sufficient infrastructure to
handle the projected levels of activity.
Should the infrastructure be inadequate and
result in even more congestion and delays, it
is likely that the forecasts of both demand
and operations would not be achieved.
Increasing concerns about aviation environmental impacts could potentially limit or delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow to
meet national economic and mobility needs.
54
noise. The implementation of the Carbon
Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a global marketbased measure for international carbon dioxide emissions, will help ensure an approach
that is economically preferable to a patchwork of State or Regional-level regulations
around the world is used. Continued advancements in technologies that result in improved fuel efficiency, reduced fuel consumption, noise reduction and reduced emissions are also required to ensure that access
restrictions or operating limitations are not
imposed on the in-service fleet, which in turn
may depress growth.
Airspace modernization and airport expansion or new construction are often contentious because of concerns over noise, air
quality, and water quality. Community concerns about aviation noise have led to increasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. Without effective
measures to mitigate and abate aviation
noise, the infrastructure projects and airspace redesign efforts needed to achieve
aviation growth may be delayed. The environmental noise and emissions issues associated with overflight operations also present
global challenges. In addition to providing
economic benefits, technologies to improve
aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce fuel consumption provide benefits in terms of reduced emissions; many technologies that improve fuel efficiency also provide reduced
55
Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios
term stimulus but in the medium term, headwinds result from slower federal government
spending. Oil prices remain moderate by historic standards and there are no external
shocks.
Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry.
As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for
planning purposes has increased. In order
to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA provides alternative scenarios
to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and
capacity.
The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Markit’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast sees stronger overall growth driven
mainly by an increase in productivity in a low
inflation environment.
This results in
stronger real wage growth and an improved
employment outlook, leading to increased
consumer spending. Confidence is high and
the stock market sees strong gains while the
unemployment rate remains slightly lower
than in the baseline scenario. Stronger imports accompany the increased domestic demand but exports rise faster with improving
foreign economic conditions.
To create the baseline domestic forecast,
economic assumptions from IHS Markit’s 10year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were
used. To develop the alternative scenarios,
assumptions from IHS Markit’s 10-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their
February 2019 Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook were combined with the optimistic and
pessimistic forecasts from their Fall 2018 30year U.S. Macro forecast. Inputs from these
alternative scenarios were used to create a
“high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield
forecast.
In this scenario, real personal consumption
expenditure (PCE) per capita growth averages 0.5 percentage points faster per year
International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by
IHS Markit. Thus, the alternative scenarios
use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS
Markit’s Major Trading Partner and Other Important Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create a high
and low case.
Scenario Assumptions
The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that economic growth remains close
to trend over the next few years as both consumer and business spending provide support. Recent tax cuts result in some near-
56
consumer confidence and an inverted yield
curve stresses financial markets, resulting in
sharp declines in asset values and broadbased declines in business fixed investment.
Negative wealth effects and employment declines lead households to sharply curtail their
spending early in 2020. By the end of 2020,
housing and consumer spending start to turn
back up, but recover only tepidly, while business fixed investment turns up more strongly
and leads the recovery. Oil prices rise faster
than the baseline throughout the forecast.
than the baseline forecast and unemployment averages 0.3 points lower on a fiscal
year basis than the baseline. 19
Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses
IHS Markit’s pessimistic scenario. In this
forecast, a broad loss in confidence and
growing aversion to risk leads to drops in a
wide range of investment and consumer
spending categories to end the expansion in
the U.S. The economy suffers a three-quarter recession in 2020 and GDP growth averages 0.2 percentage points lower than in the
baseline over the first ten years of the forecast.
Real PCE per capita in this scenario grows
0.4 percentage points slower per year than in
the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is 0.6 points higher on an annual basis
than in the baseline.
Rising housing prices have left the real-estate market vulnerable, and a slowdown
turns into a decline, as real-estate prices correct and confidence plunges. Then, a growing sense of unease marked by declines in
19 Real personal consumption expenditure per
capita and unemployment are used as input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts
of enplanements.
57
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita
Annual Percent Change
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
(0.5)
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
2033
2036
2039
Optimistic
Source: IHS Markit
U.S. Population
390
Population ( millions)
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
2018
2019
2023
2027
2031
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
Source: IHS Markit
58
2035
Optimistic
2039
U.S. Unemployment Rate
6.0
% Unemployed
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
2033
2036
2039
Optimistic
Source: IHS Markit
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost
180
Price per Barrel ($)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2018
2021
2024
Pessimistic
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
Baseline
2033
2036
2039
Optimistic
Source: IHS Markit
goods prices causing the optimistic CPI to
rise similarly to the baseline. In the pessimistic case, energy prices, wages and import
prices all rise more rapidly compared to the
baseline.
The price of energy is one of the drivers in
the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, slow
growth of energy prices and import prices
counteracts faster growth of other consumer
59
Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers
Index Value (2018 = 100)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
2018
2021
2024
Pessimistic
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
Baseline
Source: IHS Markit
60
2033
Optimistic
2036
2039
Alternative Forecasts
Enplanements
the baseline, totaling 1.5 billion, 201 million
greater than in the baseline.
In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2019-2039 (with domestic
and international passengers increasing at
rates of 1.6 and 3.0 percent, respectively).
The pessimistic case is characterized by a
period of weakened consumer confidence
combined with a contraction in real estate
and financial asset markets, leading to
higher interest rates, and curtailed investment and consumer spending. In this scenario, enplanements grow an average of 1.3
percent per year (domestic up 1.1 percent
and international up 2.6 percent). In the pessimistic case, system passengers in 2039
are 9.9 percent below the baseline case, totaling 1.2 billion, or 130 million fewer than in
the baseline.
In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at
a quicker pace, averaging 2.5 percent per
year (up 2.4 percent domestically and 3.4
percent internationally). This scenario is
marked by a more favorable business environment and lower fuel prices which make
the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the end of the
forecast period in 2039, system passengers
in the optimistic case are 15.4 percent above
System Enplanements
Annual Percent Change
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
(1.0)
(2.0)
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
61
2033
2036
Optimistic
2039
Revenue Passenger Miles
growth averaging 2.8 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 2.6 and
3.4 percent, respectively).
In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow
at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent a
year over the forecast horizon (2019-2039),
with domestic RPMs increasing 1.9 percent
annually and international RPMs growing 3.0
percent annually.
In the pessimistic case, the combination of a
slower growing economy and higher energy
prices result in RPM growth averaging 1.7
percent annually with domestic markets
growing 1.4 percent a year while international traffic grows 2.6 percent annually.
In the optimistic case, the faster growing
economy coupled with lower energy prices
drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with
System Revenue Passenger Miles
Annual Percent Change
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
(1.0)
2018
2021
2024
Pessimistic
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
2033
Baseline
Optimistic
2036
2039
Available Seat Miles
In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a
faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 2.8 percent annually system-wide (2.5
and 3.4 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline
forecast to accommodate increased travel
In the base case, system capacity is forecast
to increase an average of 2.1 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 1.8 percent annually in domestic
markets and 3.0 percent a year in international markets.
62
annually (domestic growth of 1.3 percent annually and international up 2.6 percent annually).
demand brought about by a more favorable
economic environment.
In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel
is lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 1.7 percent
System Available Seat Miles
Annual Percent Change
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
(1.0)
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
2033
2036
2039
Optimistic
Load Factor
System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three
forecast scenarios. System load factor rises
from 83.9 percent in 2019 to 85.0 (optimistic),
84.8 (pessimistic), and 84.9 (baseline) percent in 2039, respectively.
percent in all three scenarios, optimistic, pessimistic and baseline.
The international load factor is forecast to
hold steady near 81.5 throughout the period
in the pessimistic scenario and rise slightly to
81.6 percent in the baseline and optimistic
scenarios. This reflects in part the relative
growth in demand and capacity in the three
(Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.
In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side
by actively managing capacity (seats) to
more precisely meet demand (passengers).
The domestic load factor increases over the
forecast horizon from 84.9 percent to 86.6
63
Yield
due to advancements in technology, gains in
productivity, and relatively favorable fuel
prices.
In the baseline forecast, nominal system
yield increases 1.6 percent annually, going
from 13.69 cents in 2019 to 18.94 cents in
2039. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 13.67 cents in 2019
to 18.96 cents in 2039. International yield
rises from 13.73 cents in 2019 to 18.89 cents
in 2039.
In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise
more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an
average of 2.4 percent annually, reaching
21.92 cents by 2039 (22.05 cents domestically and 21.66 cents internationally). This
scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and higher energy prices than in the
baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in
order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor,
and capital.
System yield rises in the optimistic case at
the same rate as in the baseline, up 1.4 percent annually to 18.20 cents by 2039. Domestic yield increases to 18.08 cents while
international yield increases to 18.48 cents.
The modest growth in yield in both cases is
64
65
4.0
4.0
4.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic
(%)
Baseline
Optimistic
Source: IHS Markit
2.50
2.50
2.50
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Consumer Price Index
All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0
64.7
63.7
63.7
Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic
Average - $ Per Barrel
Baseline
Optimistic
Historical
2018E
39,042
39,042
39,042
Scenario
Real Personal Consumption Pessimistic
Expenditure per Capita
Baseline
(2012 $)
Optimistic
Economic Assumptions
Variable
3.8
3.7
3.7
2.54
2.55
2.55
77.4
60.6
60.6
39,827
39,840
40,016
2019
5.5
4.4
4.1
2.83
2.85
2.84
85.4
66.1
65.1
40,757
42,079
44,256
2024
5.0
4.6
4.2
3.19
3.19
3.19
101.8
80.4
67.0
43,365
44,686
49,215
FORECAST
2029
4.6
4.7
4.3
3.80
3.55
3.52
125.1
89.9
70.2
45,921
48,137
53,292
2034
FISCAL YEARS 2018-2039
4.9
4.8
4.5
4.57
3.95
3.85
152.9
98.4
74.2
48,154
51,924
57,787
2039
FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE A-1
-3.5%
-7.5%
-8.2%
1.9%
2.0%
1.9%
19.5%
-4.8%
-4.8%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
7.3%
3.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.4%
0.5%
1.1%
2.0%
2.6%
2.2%
1.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.8%
2.9%
1.0%
0.9%
1.2%
2.1%
1.2%
1.6%
1.1%
2.7%
2.2%
2.2%
3.3%
2.7%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.9%
1.2%
1.4%
1.0%
3.0%
2.2%
2.1%
3.5%
2.5%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.9%
PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
2018-19 2019-24 2019-29 2019-34 2019-39
66
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Psgr Carrier Miles Flown
(MIL)
Psgr Carrier Departures
(000s)
Nominal Passenger Yield
(cents)
* Includes domestic and international activity.
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
13.63
13.63
13.63
9,161.0
9,161.0
9,161.0
7,649.7
7,649.7
7,649.7
880.5
880.5
880.5
1,000.8
1,000.8
1,000.8
Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic
(BIL)
Baseline
Optimistic
Enplanements
(MIL)
1,194.7
1,194.7
1,194.7
Scenario
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Available Seat Miles
(BIL)
System Aviation Activity
Variable
Historical
2018E
13.68
13.69
13.69
9,425.4
9,417.6
9,473.5
7,893.6
7,923.9
7,965.1
913.3
917.2
922.4
1,040.6
1,044.3
1,049.2
1,239.8
1,244.0
1,249.9
2019
1,102.8
1,178.2
1,349.7
1,345.2
1,433.1
1,620.5
1,586.4
1,689.8
1,909.0
1,175.1
1,304.9
1,505.5
1,462.5
1,613.2
1,838.5
1,723.7
1,900.5
2,163.9
2039
8,715.8 9,426.9 10,044.9
9,113.0 10,058.3 11,115.8
10,288.3 11,438.8 12,735.4
1,017.2
1,065.5
1,211.8
1,219.3
1,272.8
1,428.2
1,440.2
1,503.0
1,685.0
2034
14.78
14.87
14.81
16.21
16.24
16.06
18.76
17.57
17.16
21.92
18.94
18.20
9,172.1 9,716.1 10,222.1 10,567.6
9,636.9 10,136.1 10,866.3 11,677.8
10,329.7 11,525.1 12,428.3 13,444.4
8,005.3
8,396.9
8,944.9
929.3
979.5
1,047.9
1,094.4
1,143.4
1,213.6
1,296.7
1,353.9
1,436.3
2024
FORECAST
2029
FISCAL YEARS 2018-2039
FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*
TABLE A-2
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
2.9%
2.8%
3.4%
3.2%
3.6%
4.1%
3.7%
4.2%
4.8%
4.0%
4.3%
4.8%
3.8%
4.1%
4.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
-0.5%
0.5%
1.7%
0.3%
1.2%
2.3%
0.3%
1.3%
2.6%
1.0%
1.8%
3.0%
0.9%
1.7%
2.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
0.3%
0.7%
2.0%
1.0%
1.4%
2.6%
1.1%
1.5%
2.8%
1.6%
2.0%
3.1%
1.5%
1.9%
3.0%
2.1%
1.7%
1.5%
0.5%
1.0%
1.8%
1.2%
1.6%
2.4%
1.3%
1.7%
2.6%
1.7%
2.1%
2.9%
1.7%
2.1%
2.9%
2.4%
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
1.1%
1.8%
1.2%
1.7%
2.4%
1.3%
1.8%
2.5%
1.7%
2.2%
2.8%
1.7%
2.1%
2.8%
PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
2018-19 2019-24 2019-29 2019-34 2019-39
67
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Psgr Carrier Miles Flown
(MIL)
Psgr Carrier Departures
(000s)
Nominal Passenger Yield
(cents)
13.66
13.66
13.66
8,470.1
8,470.1
8,470.1
6,078.8
6,078.8
6,078.8
780.8
780.8
780.8
720.2
720.2
720.2
Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic
(BIL)
Baseline
Optimistic
Enplanements
(MIL)
850.4
850.4
850.4
Scenario
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Variable
Domestic Aviation
Activity
Available Seat Miles
(BIL)
Historical
2018E
13.66
13.67
13.67
8,724.7
8,716.5
8,771.8
6,279.0
6,308.8
6,348.6
811.8
815.6
820.7
751.1
754.6
759.3
884.4
888.6
894.1
2019
14.76
14.85
14.78
8,414.9
8,875.3
9,546.7
6,203.3
6,583.0
7,082.5
817.1
866.9
932.3
766.3
813.0
874.3
894.0
948.5
1,020.1
2024
7,129.2
7,621.9
8,826.4
955.7
1,021.4
1182.1
920.4
983.8
1,138.5
1,065.4
1,138.7
1,317.8
2034
7,466.9
8,314.8
9,701.2
1,006.6
1,120.5
1,306.4
982.6
1,093.7
1,275.2
1,135.2
1,263.5
1,473.2
2039
16.25
16.24
15.99
18.85
17.58
17.05
22.05
18.96
18.08
8,857.2 9,251.0 9,468.0
9,247.8 9,829.4 10,469.7
10,581.2 11,316.8 12,138.0
6,673.1
7,005.6
8,051.2
888.5
932.5
1,071.1
844.4
886.3
1,018.0
980.3
1,028.9
1,181.7
FORECAST
2029
FISCAL YEARS 2018-2039
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
3.0%
2.9%
3.6%
3.3%
3.8%
4.4%
4.0%
4.5%
5.1%
4.3%
4.8%
5.4%
4.0%
4.5%
5.1%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
-0.7%
0.4%
1.7%
-0.2%
0.9%
2.2%
0.1%
1.2%
2.6%
0.4%
1.5%
2.9%
0.2%
1.3%
2.7%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
0.2%
0.6%
1.9%
0.6%
1.1%
2.4%
0.9%
1.3%
2.7%
1.2%
1.6%
3.0%
1.0%
1.5%
2.8%
2.2%
1.7%
1.5%
0.4%
0.8%
1.7%
0.9%
1.3%
2.2%
1.1%
1.5%
2.5%
1.4%
1.8%
2.7%
1.2%
1.7%
2.6%
2.4%
1.6%
1.4%
0.4%
0.9%
1.6%
0.9%
1.4%
2.1%
1.1%
1.6%
2.4%
1.4%
1.9%
2.6%
1.3%
1.8%
2.5%
PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
2018-19 2019-24 2019-29 2019-34 2019-39
FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY
TABLE A-3
68
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Psgr Carrier Miles Flown
(MIL)
Psgr Carrier Departures
(000s)
Nominal Passenger Yield
(cents)
*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Scenario
Enplanements
(MIL)
Revenue Passenger Miles
(BIL)
International Aviation
Activity
Available Seat Miles
(BIL)
Variable
13.55
13.55
13.55
690.9
690.9
690.9
1,570.9
1,570.9
1,570.9
99.6
99.6
99.6
280.6
280.6
280.6
344.3
344.3
344.3
Historical
2018E
13.72
13.73
13.73
700.7
701.1
701.7
1,614.7
1,615.2
1,616.5
101.6
101.6
101.7
289.6
289.7
289.9
355.4
355.4
355.7
2019
14.83
14.94
14.88
757.1
761.6
783.0
1,802.0
1,813.8
1,862.5
112.2
112.6
115.5
328.1
330.4
339.2
402.6
405.4
416.3
2024
16.11
16.22
16.24
858.9
888.3
944.0
2,042.7
2,107.4
2,237.1
128.7
132.9
140.8
374.9
386.4
410.2
459.9
474.1
503.3
FORECAST
2029
18.57
17.55
17.41
971.1
1,036.9
1,111.5
2,297.8
2,436.4
2,612.4
147.1
156.7
167.6
424.7
449.3
482.0
521.0
551.1
591.2
2034
FISCAL YEARS 2018-2039
21.66
18.89
18.48
1,099.6
1,208.1
1,306.4
2,577.9
2,801.0
3,034.2
168.5
184.4
199.0
479.9
519.5
563.3
588.5
637.0
690.7
2039
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
2.2%
2.2%
2.3%
2.9%
2.0%
2.1%
2.6%
2.5%
2.7%
3.2%
2.5%
2.7%
3.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
2.1%
2.4%
3.0%
2.4%
2.7%
3.3%
2.4%
2.7%
3.3%
2.6%
2.9%
3.5%
2.6%
2.9%
3.5%
2.0%
1.7%
1.6%
2.2%
2.6%
3.1%
2.4%
2.8%
3.3%
2.5%
2.9%
3.4%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
2.3%
1.6%
1.5%
2.3%
2.8%
3.2%
2.4%
2.8%
3.2%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
2018-19 2019-24 2019-29 2019-34 2019-39
FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*
TABLE A-4
Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy
prepared for the period examined were developed while the U.S. airline industry was
going through upheaval, the FAA’s forecast
methodology remained consistent during this
time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might
lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current
forecast methodology.
Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of
uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment
and reliance on industry knowledge and the
forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results.
The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no
exception. Given the volatile nature of the
U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that
each year’s forecast would contain a certain
degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA
forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be
able to adjust for the predictable variance
from actual results.
The table below contains the mean absolute
percent errors for the projected values versus the actual results for U.S. carriers’ system operations along with the projected values versus actual results for U.S. GDP.
Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of
years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3 Years”
column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 5.0 percent for ASM
forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For
the period under examination, preparation of
the forecasts for FY 2010 through FY 2018
occurred in FY 2006 through FY 2017. 20
The table below presents an analysis of the
variance from historical results for a primary
forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2010-2018 forecast period. Although many of the forecasts
20
It should be noted that the first forecasted year
for each respective fiscal year is that very same
year. Therefore, FY 2010’s first forecasted year
is FY 2010, and the third forecasted year is FY
2012.
69
U.S. AIR CARRIERS
SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY
FORECAST EVALUATION
Forecast
Variable
Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2010 - FY 2018)
(Forecast Variance from Actual)
Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
4 Years
5 Years
U.S. Real GDP
ASMs
RPMs
Passenger Enplanements
Mainline Domestic Yield
Commercial Operations at FAA/Contract Towers
1.0%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
2.6%
0.8%
2.8%
2.1%
1.7%
1.6%
5.3%
2.9%
5.5%
5.0%
4.2%
4.3%
7.8%
6.6%
7.9%
8.7%
7.4%
7.6%
8.7%
10.9%
9.5%
12.3%
10.2%
10.0%
8.7%
16.2%
*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial
amount of the forecast variance for the traffic
variables is attributable to the forecast error
in the exogenous variables. Second, all the
metrics examined have increasing variances
as the forecast time horizon lengthens.
Third, the variance in the Commercial Operations at FAA/Contract Towers relative to
ASM variance is stable for the 2 to 5 year out
horizon. This suggests that beyond a 2 year
forecast horizon carriers are able to accommodate changes in capacity by means other
than adjusting operations. Many carriers
have been systematically reducing the number of smaller regional jets in their fleets, replacing them with larger 70-90 seat aircraft.
This has allowed carriers to increase capacity without increasing flights.
Presenting forecast variances from actual
data in such a manner simplifies a review of
longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to increase as the forecast
year is moves away from the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of
changes in the relative variances by time
horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur.
Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, the forecast variances for GDP, a key exogenous variable,
are similar to the variances of the key traffic
measures, Passenger Enplanements and
RPMs. This suggests that a substantial
70
Appendix C: Forecast Tables
71
72
FISCAL YEAR 2018
61.88
42.4%
249.4
3.5%
Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average
(Dollars per barrel)
56.65
Year over year change
87.3%
Consumer Price Index
(1982-84 equals 100)
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
247.3
3.3%
38,828
-0.1%
Source: IHS Markit
FISCAL YEAR 2019
FISCAL YEAR 2020
250.5
1.7%
67.24
39.4%
39,122
3.1%
251.7
2.0%
69.04
11.1%
39,380
2.7%
252.8
1.8%
61.25
-38.1%
39,663
2.9%
253.4
0.9%
54.79
-36.0%
39,750
0.9%
255.3
3.1%
62.52
69.6%
39,886
1.4%
257.0
2.6%
63.95
9.4%
40,060
1.8%
258.3
2.1%
62.78
-7.1%
40,232
1.7%
259.5
1.8%
60.51
-13.7%
40,403
1.7%
260.8
2.0%
59.71
-5.2%
40,562
1.6%
262.0
1.9%
58.65
-6.9%
40,725
1.6%
1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.
38,835
3.2%
ECONOMIC VARIABLE
Real Personal Consumption
Expenditure per Capita
(2012 $)
Year over year change
U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE 1
73
Source: IHS Markit
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
2.2%
2.6%
1.8%
1.8%
18,917
20,522
22,508
24,689
27,065
15,500
17,301
17,577
17,941
18,431
1.7%
2.0%
1.2%
1.3%
39,840
42,079
44,686
48,137
51,924
34,164
36,862
37,618
38,303
39,042
1.7%
2.0%
2.3%
2.2%
2.55
2.85
3.19
3.55
3.95
2.17
2.37
2.39
2.44
2.50
REAL PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION
REAL GROSS
CONSUMER PRICE
DOMESTIC PRODUCT EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA
INDEX
(Billions 2012 $)
(2012 $)
(1982-84=1.00)
U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE 2
-2.0%
-4.8%
2.9%
2.5%
60.63
66.11
80.40
89.85
98.39
74.61
56.69
39.12
48.16
63.70
REFINERS'
ACQUISITION COST
AVERAGE
(Dollars per barrel)
74
2.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1,681
1,853
2,035
2,226
2,438
1,396
1,553
1,570
1,617
1,650
CANADA
1.9%
1.5%
2.0%
1.9%
25,185
27,668
30,564
33,664
36,970
21,261
23,165
23,690
24,302
24,812
1.8%
1.7%
2.7%
2.8%
5,424
6,094
7,063
8,191
9,514
4,610
5,172
5,163
5,261
5,333
Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
CALENDAR YEAR
5.1%
4.7%
4.5%
4.0%
29,356
36,785
45,558
54,367
63,874
18,846
24,247
25,404
26,710
28,028
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)
JAPAN / PACIFIC
BASIN / CHINA /
EUROPE /
LATIN AMERICA / OTHER ASIA /
AFRICA /
CARIBBEAN / AUSTRALIA / NEW
ZEALAND
MIDDLE EAST
MEXICO
INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION
TABLE 3
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
83,578
96,245
111,446
127,315
144,415
64,168
74,225
76,207
78,721
81,248
WORLD
75
2.2%
2.3%
1.8%
1.9%
22,882
24,849
27,354
30,180
33,201
18,753
20,942
21,276
21,761
22,363
1.3%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
12,576
13,398
14,320
15,263
16,219
11,201
11,678
11,902
12,202
12,428
EUROZONE
1.9%
0.9%
1.5%
1.5%
3,091
3,320
3,591
3,878
4,187
2,630
2,915
2,968
3,022
3,063
UNITED
KINGDOM
Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
CALENDAR YEAR
NORTH
AMERICA
(NAFTA)
1.0%
0.8%
1.0%
0.9%
4,572
4,765
5,037
5,267
5,473
4,179
4,390
4,417
4,502
4,535
JAPAN
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)
7.4%
6.3%
5.5%
4.6%
14,093
18,725
24,175
29,313
34,645
7,468
10,916
11,650
12,436
13,257
CHINA
INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES
TABLE 4
76
2.6%
4.5%
1.3%
1.6%
816
867
933
1,021
1,120
635
696
726
744
781
DOMESTIC
3.2%
2.0%
2.7%
3.0%
102
113
133
157
184
77
90
93
97
100
INTERNATIONAL
Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
1
Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
2.7%
4.2%
1.5%
1.8%
917
980
1,065
1,178
1,305
712
787
820
841
880
TOTAL
REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions)
3.3%
4.8%
1.6%
1.9%
755
813
886
984
1,094
555
629
663
684
720
DOMESTIC
2.5%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
290
330
386
449
520
231
261
265
271
281
INTERNATIONAL
3.1%
4.3%
2.0%
2.2%
1,044
1,143
1,273
1,433
1,613
786
890
928
955
1,001
TOTAL
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)
TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
TABLE 5
77
2.8%
4.5%
1.5%
1.8%
3.3%
4.8%
1.6%
1.9%
755
813
886
984
1,094
555
629
663
684
720
84.9
85.7
86.1
86.4
86.6
81.7
84.5
84.7
84.5
84.7
Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
1
Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
889
948
1,029
1,139
1,264
679
744
783
809
850
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
ASMs
(BIL)
FISCAL YEAR
DOMESTIC
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
FACTOR
2.6%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
355
405
474
551
637
281
323
329
335
344
2.5%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
290
330
386
449
520
231
261
265
271
281
81.5
81.5
81.5
81.5
81.6
82.1
80.7
80.6
81.0
81.5
INTERNATIONAL
ASMs
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
(BIL)
FACTOR
2.8%
4.1%
1.9%
2.1%
1,244
1,354
1,503
1,690
1,901
961
1,067
1,112
1,144
1,195
ASMs
(BIL)
3.1%
4.3%
2.0%
2.2%
1,044
1,143
1,273
1,433
1,613
786
890
928
955
1,001
83.9
84.4
84.7
84.8
84.9
81.8
83.4
83.5
83.5
83.8
SYSTEM
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
FACTOR
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
TABLE 6
78
0.8%
4.2%
2.5%
2.3%
27
31
35
39
43
25
25
24
25
26
5.3%
1.3%
2.9%
3.5%
61
67
81
99
120
40
52
55
58
60
0.4%
0.9%
2.2%
2.2%
13
15
17
19
21
13
14
14
14
13
Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
1
Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
3.2%
2.0%
2.7%
3.0%
102
113
133
157
184
77
90
93
97
100
0.4%
4.7%
2.9%
2.6%
117
137
156
176
196
109
107
105
106
112
5.0%
1.7%
3.3%
3.8%
95
106
132
163
199
63
83
87
90
93
3.0%
2.9%
2.4%
2.4%
77
87
98
111
124
59
71
73
75
75
2.5%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
290
330
386
449
519
231
261
265
271
281
REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
LATIN
TOTAL
LATIN
TOTAL
ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
TABLE 7
79
5.4%
4.6%
3.0%
3.0%
89
102
120
140
161
56
70
75
79
85
ATLANTIC
6.2%
3.6%
3.1%
3.5%
89
100
121
147
178
53
75
79
82
86
LATIN AMERICA
5.8%
3.7%
4.0%
3.6%
44
54
65
77
90
27
36
39
41
43
PACIFIC
4.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.3%
32
38
45
52
62
22
27
28
29
31
U.S./CANADA
TRANSBORDER
Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;
data also received from Transport Canada.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
CALENDAR YEAR
TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)
TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES
U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS
TABLE 8
5.6%
3.9%
3.3%
3.4%
254
294
351
416
491
158
208
220
232
244
TOTAL
80
FISCAL YEAR
140.8
144.1
146.9
149.4
152.0
121.8
131.5
134.8
137.8
139.9
220.1
223.5
224.9
226.2
227.4
216.4
214.8
214.8
217.2
219.2
Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
1
Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
157.0
161.2
164.9
168.0
171.0
139.7
149.0
151.5
154.3
156.2
AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
DOMESTIC
INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM
(Seats/Mile)
(Seats/Mile)
(Seats/Mile)
925.2
937.8
950.5
963.2
976.1
874.8
902.7
913.2
918.9
922.3
2,850.7
2,933.7
2,907.1
2,866.6
2,816.8
2,988.0
2,892.6
2,833.8
2,798.6
2,816.6
1,138.5
1,167.3
1,194.6
1,216.4
1,236.3
1,104.2
1,131.0
1,132.2
1,135.6
1,136.7
AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
DOMESTIC
INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM
(Miles)
(Miles)
(Miles)
SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1
TABLE 9
81
3.6%
4.6%
1.4%
1.6%
656
697
750
822
901
473
543
575
595
627
DOMESTIC
3.2%
1.9%
2.8%
3.1%
98
109
129
152
180
75
87
90
93
96
INTERNATIONAL
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
3.5%
4.2%
1.6%
1.8%
754
806
879
974
1,081
548
630
665
689
723
SYSTEM
REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
(Millions)
3.8%
4.8%
1.6%
1.9%
676
728
793
880
978
480
556
590
612
645
2.4%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
287
328
384
446
516
230
259
262
269
278
INTERNATIONAL
3.3%
4.3%
2.0%
2.2%
964
1,056
1,177
1,326
1,494
710
815
852
881
924
SYSTEM
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
(Billions)
DOMESTIC
SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 10
82
3.4%
4.5%
1.5%
1.8%
3.8%
4.8%
1.6%
1.9%
676
728
793
880
978
480
556
590
612
645
85.5
86.3
86.8
87.1
87.2
82.7
85.1
85.3
85.2
85.3
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
791
843
914
1,011
1,121
581
653
692
718
756
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
ASMs
(BIL)
FISCAL YEAR
DOMESTIC
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
FACTOR
2.5%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
352
402
470
547
632
279
321
325
331
341
2.4%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
287
328
384
446
516
230
259
262
269
278
-0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
81.5
81.5
81.5
81.6
81.6
82.2
80.8
80.7
81.1
81.5
INTERNATIONAL
ASMs
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
(BIL)
FACTOR
3.1%
4.1%
1.9%
2.2%
1,143
1,245
1,385
1,558
1,753
860
973
1,017
1,049
1,098
ASMs
(BIL)
3.3%
4.3%
2.0%
2.2%
964
1,056
1,177
1,326
1,494
710
815
852
881
924
84.3
84.8
85.0
85.1
85.2
82.5
83.7
83.8
83.9
84.1
SYSTEM
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
FACTOR
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 11
83
0.8%
4.2%
2.5%
2.3%
27.1
31.1
34.8
38.8
43.2
24.5
24.6
24.4
24.8
26.0
ATLANTIC
5.5%
1.1%
3.0%
3.5%
57.5
62.9
77.4
94.8
115.5
37.2
48.6
51.5
54.7
56.9
LATIN AMERICA
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
0.4%
0.9%
2.2%
2.2%
13.4
14.9
16.7
18.7
20.9
12.9
14.0
14.0
13.9
13.3
PACIFIC
REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)
3.2%
1.9%
2.8%
3.1%
98.1
108.9
128.9
152.4
179.6
74.6
87.2
89.9
93.5
96.2
TOTAL
SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 12
84
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
0.7%
4.7%
2.9%
2.6%
0.4%
4.7%
2.9%
2.6%
117
137
156
176
196
109
107
105
106
112
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
82.9
80.0
78.0
79.5
81.0
ATLANTIC
RPMs % LOAD
(BIL) FACTOR
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
145
170
193
217
242
131
133
134
134
138
FISCAL YEAR
Historical
ASMs
(BIL)
4.5%
1.6%
3.4%
3.8%
113
126
157
194
238
78
101
104
107
111
5.0%
1.6%
3.4%
3.8%
93
104
129
160
196
62
81
85
88
91
82.1
82.1
82.1
82.1
82.1
79.2
80.3
81.4
82.3
82.1
LATIN AMERICA
ASMs RPMs % LOAD
(BIL)
(BIL) FACTOR
3.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.4%
95
106
121
136
152
70
86
87
91
92
ASMs
(BIL)
3.0%
2.9%
2.4%
2.4%
77
87
98
111
124
59
71
73
75
75
81.7
81.7
81.7
81.7
81.7
84.1
82.5
83.9
82.2
81.7
PACIFIC
RPMs % LOAD
(BIL) FACTOR
BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS
2.5%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
352
402
470
547
632
279
321
325
331
341
2.4%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
287
328
384
446
516
230
259
262
269
278
81.5
81.5
81.5
81.6
81.6
82.2
80.8
80.7
81.1
81.5
INTERNATIONAL
ASMs RPMs % LOAD
(BIL)
(BIL) FACTOR
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 13
85
FISCAL YEAR
164.8
167.8
170.3
172.4
174.5
152.0
157.7
159.9
162.3
164.2
248.0
250.5
253.0
255.5
258.0
231.7
237.0
241.7
243.4
247.5
ATLANTIC
(Seats/Mile)
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
DOMESTIC
(Seats/Mile)
178.7
181.2
183.7
186.2
188.7
171.7
173.9
174.1
176.4
178.2
LATIN AMERICA
(Seats/Mile)
266.0
269.7
273.5
277.2
281.0
287.2
272.1
266.6
267.5
265.2
PACIFIC
(Seats/Mile)
INTERNATIONAL
SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
224.3
227.5
228.6
229.6
230.7
220.9
219.5
219.8
221.8
223.3
TOTAL
(Seats/Mile)
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 14
179.5
183.3
186.4
188.9
191.3
169.2
173.8
175.1
177.3
178.9
SYSTEM
(Seats/Mile)
86
1,032
1,045
1,058
1,071
1,085
1,015
1,023
1,027
1,028
1,029
DOMESTIC
(Miles)
4,320
4,412
4,483
4,523
4,546
4,433
4,336
4,291
4,278
4,299
ATLANTIC
(Miles)
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
1,611
1,648
1,669
1,685
1,693
1,660
1,669
1,650
1,602
1,603
LATIN AMERICA
(Miles)
5,751
5,842
5,886
5,916
5,931
4,587
5,080
5,176
5,373
5,638
PACIFIC
(Miles)
INTERNATIONAL
AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
2,928
3,010
2,975
2,928
2,872
3,077
2,969
2,917
2,875
2,892
TOTAL
(Miles)
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 15
1,279
1,310
1,339
1,362
1,382
1,296
1,292
1,283
1,279
1,277
SYSTEM
(Miles)
87
1.2%
0.1%
1.7%
1.7%
13.93
15.13
16.55
17.92
19.33
12.62
14.79
13.96
13.91
13.91
-0.5%
-1.8%
-0.5%
-0.6%
13.66
13.24
12.96
12.60
12.22
14.49
15.60
14.59
14.25
13.91
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
0.7%
1.3%
1.7%
1.6%
13.78
14.99
16.28
17.62
18.95
12.84
14.16
12.88
12.89
13.60
-1.0%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
13.52
13.12
12.76
12.39
11.98
14.74
14.94
13.46
13.20
13.60
1.1%
0.5%
1.7%
1.6%
13.89
15.09
16.46
17.82
19.20
12.69
14.59
13.62
13.60
13.82
-0.7%
-1.4%
-0.5%
-0.6%
13.62
13.20
12.90
12.53
12.14
14.58
15.39
14.24
13.93
13.82
REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE
DOMESTIC
INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM
CURRENT $ FY 2018 $ CURRENT $ FY 2018 $ CURRENT $ FY 2018 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
PASSENGER YIELDS
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 16
88
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
1.7%
14.59
15.95
17.39
18.89
20.45
12.73
14.64
13.83
13.58
14.38
-0.2%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
14.31
13.96
13.61
13.28
12.95
14.63
15.44
14.45
13.90
14.38
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
0.8%
1.1%
1.5%
1.4%
14.34
15.43
16.58
17.76
18.89
13.33
14.38
12.72
13.38
14.18
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
14.06
13.50
12.98
12.48
11.96
15.31
15.17
13.29
13.70
14.18
-0.8%
1.4%
1.7%
1.7%
11.89
12.96
14.14
15.39
16.69
12.50
13.20
11.69
11.36
11.73
-2.5%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.5%
11.66
11.34
11.06
10.81
10.57
14.36
13.92
12.22
11.63
11.73
0.7%
1.3%
1.7%
1.6%
13.78
14.99
16.28
17.62
18.95
12.84
14.16
12.88
12.89
13.60
-1.0%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
13.52
13.12
12.75
12.38
12.00
14.74
14.94
13.46
13.20
13.60
REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE
ATLANTIC
LATIN AMERICA
PACIFIC
TOTAL INTERNATIONAL
CURRENT $ FY 2018 $ CURRENT $ FY 2018 $ CURRENT $ FY 2018 $ CURRENT $ FY 2018 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 17
89
FISCAL YEAR
-0.7%
3.9%
2.8%
2.5%
214.75
234.57
282.87
319.33
349.16
219.16
207.29
146.17
162.31
206.63
-2.4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.2%
210.61
205.28
221.59
224.55
220.76
251.78
218.65
152.77
166.22
206.63
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
DOMESTIC
CURRENT $
FY 2017 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
-0.7%
3.9%
2.8%
2.5%
216.56
236.54
285.25
322.02
352.10
220.12
211.77
147.01
160.79
208.37
-2.4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.2%
212.39
207.01
223.46
226.44
222.62
252.85
223.38
153.65
164.66
208.37
INTERNATIONAL
CURRENT $
FY 2017 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
JET FUEL PRICES
-0.7%
3.9%
2.8%
2.5%
215.38
235.26
283.70
320.27
350.19
219.49
208.96
146.47
161.76
207.24
-2.4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.2%
211.24
205.89
222.24
225.21
221.41
252.12
220.42
153.09
165.65
207.24
SYSTEM
CURRENT $
FY 2017 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 18
90
2.9%
4.6%
1.5%
1.7%
14,829
15,608
17,201
18,968
20,835
11,243
11,636
11,998
13,062
14,182
DOMESTIC
1.9%
7.1%
4.7%
4.5%
20,845
26,239
33,041
40,864
49,917
16,733
16,008
16,236
17,587
19,465
INT'L.
2.3%
6.0%
3.5%
3.5%
35,674
41,847
50,243
59,832
70,752
27,976
27,643
28,234
30,649
33,647
TOTAL
0.0%
3.7%
0.6%
0.9%
1,638
1,652
1,742
1,835
1,960
1,580
1,455
1,373
1,579
1,580
DOMESTIC
2.2%
5.5%
3.1%
2.8%
7,947
9,268
10,780
12,276
13,753
6,332
6,670
6,136
6,958
7,532
INT'L.
1.8%
5.2%
2.7%
2.5%
9,585
10,920
12,523
14,111
15,713
7,912
8,126
7,509
8,537
9,112
TOTAL
PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS
(Millions)
2.6%
4.5%
1.4%
1.6%
16,467
17,260
18,944
20,803
22,795
12,823
13,091
13,372
14,641
15,761
2.2%
5.8%
3.3%
3.3%
45,259
52,766
62,765
73,942
86,465
35,888
35,769
35,744
39,186
42,759
TOTAL
Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
3
Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new
reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
2
2.0%
6.6%
4.3%
4.0%
28,792
35,507
43,821
53,139
63,670
23,065
22,678
22,372
24,545
26,997
INT'L.
TOTAL RTMS
(Millions)
DOMESTIC
Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.
1
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS
(Millions)
AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 19
91
1.2%
4.5%
3.3%
3.1%
7,894
9,350
10,890
12,591
14,463
6,865
6,669
6,639
7,061
7,554
2.8%
7.2%
4.4%
4.3%
11,169
13,621
17,193
21,264
25,823
8,348
9,018
8,852
9,939
10,422
PACIFIC
(MILLIONS)
2.6%
9.0%
5.8%
5.1%
7,825
10,670
13,761
17,164
21,139
5,860
5,352
5,316
5,857
7,176
(MILLIONS)
2.0%
6.6%
4.3%
4.0%
28,792
35,507
43,821
53,139
63,670
23,065
22,678
22,372
24,545
26,997
TOTAL
(MILLIONS)
Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
2
Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.
1
-0.9%
3.2%
0.4%
0.8%
1,905
1,867
1,977
2,119
2,245
1,991
1,639
1,565
1,689
1,846
LATIN AMERICA
(MILLIONS)
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
ATLANTIC
(MILLIONS)
OTHER
INTERNATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 20
92
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
CALENDAR YEAR
1.9%
-0.5%
0.4%
1.0%
3,597
3,656
3,729
4,013
4,387
3,120
3,319
3,457
3,539
3,616
-22.9%
0.0%
N/A
N/A
1
0
0
0
0
8
2
2
1
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE
LARGE NARROWBODY
1.8%
-0.5%
0.4%
1.0%
3,598
3,656
3,729
4,013
4,387
3,129
3,321
3,459
3,540
3,617
TOTAL
1.4%
-7.4%
2.4%
2.6%
487
510
618
709
810
470
492
490
517
526
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
0
0
-100.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
0
0
0
43
31
27
0
0
2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE
LARGE WIDEBODY
PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 21
0.1%
-7.4%
2.4%
2.6%
487
510
618
709
810
522
523
517
517
526
TOTAL
1.6%
-1.4%
0.6%
1.2%
4,085
4,166
4,347
4,722
5,197
3,651
3,844
3,976
4,057
4,143
LARGE
JETS
4.1%
-38.8%
0.0%
-99.9%
60
60
60
20
0
71
99
97
98
98
REGIONAL
JETS
1.6%
-2.3%
0.6%
1.1%
4,145
4,226
4,407
4,742
5,197
3,722
3,943
4,073
4,155
4,241
TOTAL
JETS
93
CALENDAR YEAR
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
6.1%
-5.3%
2.2%
2.9%
233
232
291
365
412
153
228
235
243
246
-21.5%
0.0%
N/A
N/A
15
10
1
0
0
104
22
19
16
15
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2
2
0
0
0
31
2
2
2
2
2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE
LARGE NARROWBODY
-1.1%
-4.9%
1.6%
2.5%
250
244
292
365
412
288
252
256
261
263
TOTAL
LARGE WIDEBODY
4.1%
17.0%
3.9%
4.7%
427
509
629
785
1,066
265
309
328
360
365
-3.7%
-27.0%
-0.2%
-7.2%
108
106
106
103
24
200
156
149
149
148
-2.1%
26.8%
0.7%
-1.0%
104
113
112
110
85
97
72
77
85
82
2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE
CARGO JET AIRCRAFT
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 22
0.7%
7.4%
2.9%
3.1%
639
728
847
998
1,175
562
537
554
594
595
TOTAL
0.1%
3.6%
2.5%
2.9%
889
972
1,139
1,363
1,587
850
789
810
855
858
TOTAL
94
2.5%
3.5%
0.5%
0.8%
15,169
15,406
15,901
16,744
17,678
12,036
12,834
13,441
13,842
14,662
DOMESTIC
1.4%
2.2%
1.9%
1.9%
7,238
7,855
8,739
9,665
10,630
6,315
6,541
6,467
6,667
7,081
INT'L.
2.1%
3.1%
1.0%
1.2%
22,407
23,261
24,640
26,409
28,308
18,351
19,374
19,908
20,509
21,743
TOTAL
1.5%
3.8%
2.2%
1.7%
1,675
1,919
2,089
2,221
2,335
1,435
1,383
1,437
1,541
1,613
GENERAL
AVIATION
2.1%
3.1%
1.0%
1.2%
24,081
25,181
26,729
28,630
30,643
19,786
20,757
21,345
22,050
23,356
TOTAL
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
AIR
CARRIER
-0.7%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-0.6%
209
200
193
187
186
223
198
208
208
210
TOTAL
Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier
2
Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.
1
-0.7%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-0.6%
207
198
191
185
184
221
196
206
206
208
GENERAL
AVIATION
AVIATION GASOLINE
Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
JET FUEL
U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2
(Millions of Gallons)
U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION
TABLE 23
2.1%
3.1%
1.0%
1.2%
24,290
25,381
26,922
28,817
30,829
20,009
20,955
21,553
22,258
23,566
TOTAL FUEL
CONSUMED
95
FISCAL YEAR
1.6%
1.5%
0.8%
0.8%
64.7
67.5
70.1
72.7
75.4
56.1
59.9
61.5
63.0
63.8
3.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
71.1
72.6
74.1
75.6
77.1
53.2
62.6
68.9
70.8
70.8
1.7%
1.4%
0.8%
0.8%
64.9
67.7
70.2
72.8
75.5
56.0
60.0
61.8
63.2
64.0
** Reporting carriers.
Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
DOMESTIC
INT'L
TOTAL
(Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)
AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
489
499
509
519
530
464
475
481
482
487
DOMESTIC
(Miles)
3.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
683
697
711
725
740
503
695
723
718
680
INT'L.
(Miles)
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
493
503
513
524
534
465
480
487
487
491
TOTAL
(Miles)
-4.0%
0.1%
1.7%
1.6%
11.33
12.30
13.45
14.56
15.70
15.74
10.93
11.31
11.27
11.32
CURRENT $
(Cents)
-5.7%
-1.8%
-0.5%
-0.6%
11.12
10.77
10.54
10.24
9.93
18.08
11.53
11.82
11.54
11.32
2018 $
(Cents)
AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 24
96
-0.6%
4.0%
1.3%
1.6%
160
170
183
200
219
162
153
152
149
154
DOMESTIC
2.9%
4.0%
1.3%
1.6%
4
4
4
4
5
3
3
4
3
3
INTERNATIONAL
Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
REVENUE PASSENGERS
-0.6%
4.0%
1.3%
1.6%
164
174
187
204
224
164
156
155
152
157
TOTAL
(In Millions)
0.0%
4.5%
1.7%
2.0%
78,242
84,776
92,926
103,786
116,106
75,030
72,754
72,964
71,715
74,886
6.9%
4.5%
1.7%
2.0%
2,398
2,598
2,848
3,181
3,558
1,347
2,116
2,564
2,468
2,295
INTERNATIONAL
76,377
74,870
75,527
74,183
77,181
TOTAL
0.1%
4.5%
1.7%
2.0%
80,640
87,374
95,773
106,967
119,664
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
DOMESTIC
SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
TABLE 25
97
YEAR
-0.6%
4.2%
1.6%
1.9%
97,861
105,098
114,699
127,786
142,723
98,461
90,681
91,158
90,938
93,924
0.0%
4.5%
1.7%
2.0%
78,242
84,776
92,926
103,786
116,106
75,030
72,754
72,964
71,715
74,886
80.0
80.7
81.0
81.2
81.4
76.2
80.2
80.0
78.9
79.7
% LOAD
FACTOR
Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
ASMs
(MIL)
DOMESTIC
RPMs
(MIL)
6.3%
4.2%
1.6%
1.9%
3,149
3,382
3,691
4,112
4,593
1,857
2,819
3,519
3,380
3,023
6.9%
4.5%
1.7%
2.0%
2,398
2,598
2,848
3,181
3,558
1,347
2,116
2,564
2,468
2,295
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
76.1
76.8
77.2
77.3
77.5
72.5
75.0
72.8
73.0
75.9
INTERNATIONAL
ASMs
RPMs
% LOAD
(MIL)
(MIL)
FACTOR
-0.4%
4.2%
1.6%
1.9%
101,011
108,480
118,390
131,899
147,315
100,318
93,500
94,677
94,317
96,947
ASMs
(MIL)
76,377
74,870
75,527
74,183
77,181
TOTAL
RPMs
(MIL)
0.1%
4.5%
1.7%
2.0%
80,640
87,374
95,773
106,967
119,664
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
TABLE 26
79.8
80.5
80.9
81.1
81.2
76.1
80.1
79.8
78.7
79.6
% LOAD
FACTOR
98
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
AS OF
JANUARY 1
-2.8%
-18.5%
-5.6%
-10.4%
286
225
160
95
32
440
346
390
367
351
LESS THAN
9 SEATS
-4.6%
-7.9%
-5.5%
-10.7%
58
45
33
19
6
92
68
55
65
63
10 TO 19
SEATS
-24.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
8
6
5
3
1
82
13
13
19
9
20 TO 30
SEATS
-19.7%
16.0%
-100.0%
-99.9%
29
0
0
0
0
144
32
59
26
25
PROP
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
0
0
0
0
28
0
0
0
0
JET
-21.4%
16.0%
-100.0%
-99.9%
29
0
0
0
0
172
32
59
26
25
TOTAL
-7.1%
10.9%
3.5%
2.8%
61
81
86
95
106
99
57
40
65
55
PROP
0.5%
-2.8%
-0.4%
0.4%
1,745
1,801
1,682
1,727
1,877
1,728
1,628
1,637
1,644
1,795
JET
0.2%
-2.4%
-0.2%
0.5%
1,806
1,882
1,768
1,822
1,983
1,827
1,685
1,677
1,709
1,850
TOTAL
REGIONAL AIRCRAFT
31 TO 40 SEATS
OVER 40 SEATS
PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
TABLE 27
-6.4%
-12.1%
-4.3%
-5.4%
442
357
284
212
145
857
516
557
542
503
NON JET
0.3%
-2.8%
-0.4%
0.4%
1,745
1,801
1,682
1,727
1,877
1,756
1,628
1,637
1,644
1,795
JET
TOTAL FLEET
-1.6%
-4.8%
-1.1%
-0.4%
2,187
2,158
1,966
1,939
2,022
2,613
2,144
2,194
2,186
2,298
TOTAL
99
129,285
123,145
116,360
110,160
105,195
139,519
127,887
129,652
129,833
129,885
SINGLE
ENGINE
-0.9%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-2.4%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.4%
13,010
12,805
12,575
12,330
12,085
15,900
13,254
12,986
13,083
13,040
-1.0%
-0.4%
-1.0%
-1.0%
142,295
135,950
128,935
122,490
117,280
155,419
141,141
142,638
142,916
142,925
TOTAL
0.7%
0.0%
0.8%
1.3%
9,925
10,135
10,770
11,640
12,810
9,369
9,712
9,779
9,949
9,925
3.0%
2.6%
2.5%
2.2%
14,970
17,025
19,110
21,100
23,050
11,484
13,440
13,751
14,217
14,585
2.0%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
24,895
27,160
29,880
32,740
35,860
20,853
23,152
23,530
24,166
24,510
TURBINE
TURBO TURBO
PROP
JET
TOTAL
TOTAL
-0.9%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
3,405
3,775
4,150
4,545
4,950
3,588
3,286
3,344
3,270
3,335
0.7%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
10,895
11,850
12,850
13,965
15,175
10,102
10,506
10,577
10,511
10,705
1.2%
1.4%
1.1%
0.9%
27,755
29,465
30,880
32,040
33,040
24,784
27,922
27,585
26,921
27,365
-10.6%
4.7%
3.9%
3.5%
2,790
3,420
4,100
4,820
5,555
6,528
2,369
2,478
2,551
2,665
-2.3%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
4,745
4,820
4,865
4,880
4,890
5,684
4,941
4,986
4,692
4,715
**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.
Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
7,490
8,075
8,700
9,420
10,225
6,514
7,220
7,233
7,241
7,370
-0.6%
0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
213,375
212,665
211,510
210,935
211,800
223,370
210,031
211,794
211,757
212,885
GENERAL
EXPERI- LIGHT SPORT
AVIATION
FLEET
PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER
ROTORCRAFT
* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2017, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical*
AS OF DEC. 31
PISTON
MULTIENGINE
FIXED WING
ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT
TABLE 28
-1.0%
-0.4%
-0.9%
-0.9%
145,700
139,725
133,085
127,035
122,230
159,007
144,427
145,982
146,186
146,260
1.9%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
32,385
35,235
38,580
42,160
46,085
27,367
30,372
30,763
31,407
31,880
TOTAL
TOTAL
PISTONS TURBINES
100
-1.8%
0.7%
-0.1%
-0.1%
1,578
1,577
1,563
1,547
1,532
1,818
1,608
1,683
1,536
1,568
-0.3%
-0.9%
-1.4%
-1.0%
13,472
12,483
11,748
11,218
11,016
13,979
12,825
13,548
13,583
13,597
TOTAL
1.8%
1.5%
1.4%
1.6%
2,713
2,898
3,105
3,365
3,707
2,325
2,538
2,708
2,625
2,672
5,700
6,375
6,554
6,690
6,966
3.1%
5.4%
3.5%
2.8%
2.5%
3.9%
2.8%
2.4%
4,528 7,241
5,571 8,469
6,417 9,523
7,173 10,537
7,916 11,623
3,375
3,837
3,847
4,065
4,294
0.2%
3.1%
2.3%
2.0%
832
946
1,044
1,145
1,249
794
798
780
782
808
0.0%
2.9%
2.0%
1.9%
2,688
2,986
3,279
3,584
3,920
2,611
2,496
2,348
2,538
2,613
0.5%
2.4%
1.9%
1.6%
1,305
1,445
1,570
1,681
1,784
1,226
1,295
1,224
1,241
1,274
-4.2%
5.6%
4.8%
4.3%
233
301
374
456
542
311
191
187
209
221
-0.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.2%
170
173
175
176
177
181
162
193
168
169
0.4%
1.2%
0.7%
0.8%
25,943
26,802
27,713
28,798
30,311
24,802
24,142
24,834
25,212
25,647
**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.
Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.
0.1%
2.9%
2.1%
1.9%
3,521
3,932
4,323
4,729
5,169
3,405
3,294
3,128
3,320
3,420
TOTAL
TURBINE
ROTORCRAFT
GENERAL
TURBO TURBO
EXPERI- LIGHT SPORT
AVIATION
JET
PROP
FLEET
TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL* AIRCRAFT** OTHER
FIXED WING
* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2017, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
-0.1%
-1.1%
-1.5%
-1.1%
11,894
10,906
10,186
9,672
9,483
12,161
11,217
11,865
12,047
12,029
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical*
AS OF DEC. 31
PISTON
SINGLE MULTIENGINE ENGINE
(In Thousands)
ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN
TABLE 29
-0.3%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-0.8%
14,305
13,429
12,792
12,363
12,265
14,773
13,623
14,328
14,366
14,404
1.8%
3.7%
2.6%
2.3%
9,929
11,455
12,802
14,122
15,543
8,311
8,871
8,902
9,228
9,578
TOTAL
TOTAL
PISTONS TURBINES
101
-4.7%
-2.8%
-3.8%
-4.1%
140
120
95
80
60
212
190
175
153
144
RECREATIONAL
6.8%
4.3%
3.7%
3.0%
6,515
7,925
9,360
10,680
11,705
3,682
5,482
5,889
6,097
6,246
SPORT
PILOT
-2.6%
0.5%
-0.5%
-0.7%
164,550
162,800
156,350
149,100
143,400
202,020
170,718
162,313
162,455
163,695
PRIVATE
-2.6%
1.8%
0.0%
-0.2%
101,650
102,300
101,150
99,650
98,250
123,705
101,164
96,081
98,161
99,880
COMMERCIAL
1.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.7%
163,300
168,400
174,200
180,800
187,900
142,198
154,730
157,894
159,825
162,145
AIRLINE
TRANSPORT
-0.3%
-1.9%
0.7%
1.4%
14,750
14,650
15,850
17,550
19,450
15,377
15,566
15,518
15,355
15,033
-1.8%
1.0%
-0.4%
-0.4%
18,550
18,300
17,840
17,420
17,250
21,275
19,460
17,991
18,139
18,370
GLIDER
ONLY
-1.1%
0.8%
0.1%
0.1%
469,455
474,495
474,845
475,280
478,015
508,469
467,310
455,861
460,185
465,513
-0.3%
1.2%
0.4%
0.3%
314,800
321,400
327,100
332,200
337,300
318,001
304,329
302,572
306,652
311,017
TOTAL LESS
INSTRUMENT
STUDENT
1
PILOTS
RATED PILOTS
Starting with April 2016, there is no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. This generates a cumulative increase in the student pilot
numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and private pilot or higher level certificates. As the implementation is very new and there is
not sufficient data to forecast the student certificates unter the new rule, student pilot forecast is suspended and excluded from this table.
1
Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.
Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
*
** Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018
Historical**
AS OF DEC. 31
ROTORCRAFT
ONLY
ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE, EXCLUDING STUDENT PILOTS*
TABLE 30
102
CALENDAR YEAR
0.5%
-1.1%
-1.7%
-1.4%
137
125
116
108
104
133
128
137
138
138
-3.2%
0.3%
-0.4%
-0.3%
41
41
40
39
39
54
40
42
41
41
MULTIENGINE
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
1.2%
203
213
224
238
255
187
191
207
198
201
TURBO
PROP
1.6%
4.4%
2.5%
1.8%
1,326
1,551
1,700
1,807
1,896
1,123
1,063
1,117
1,204
1,270
TURBO
JET
-0.5%
3.1%
2.2%
2.0%
11
12
13
14
16
11
10
10
10
10
PISTON
1.6%
2.4%
1.3%
1.2%
146
155
166
176
183
125
128
113
139
142
-3.2%
1.2%
1.6%
1.4%
17
18
20
21
22
22
15
17
16
17
-1.6%
5.6%
4.5%
3.9%
1
2
2
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
EXPERIMENTAL* LIGHT
TURBINE * / OTHER SPORT**
ROTORCRAFT
-0.7%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-0.6%
207
198
191
185
184
221
196
206
206
208
AVGAS
1.5%
3.8%
2.2%
1.7%
1,675
1,919
2,089
2,221
2,335
1,435
1,383
1,437
1,541
1,613
JET FUEL
1.2%
3.3%
1.9%
1.5%
1,882
2,117
2,280
2,406
2,519
1,656
1,578
1,643
1,747
1,821
TOTAL
TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED
**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.
Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
*Source: FAA APO Estimates.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical*
SINGLE
ENGINE
FIXED WING
PISTON
TURBINE
(In Millions of Gallons)
GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION
TABLE 31
103
2.7%
3.9%
2.5%
2.1%
16,301
19,093
20,772
22,653
24,663
Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
-3.4%
1.0%
-2.2%
-0.6%
7,197
5,484
5,752
6,047
6,361
9,410
7,895
7,580
7,179
7,126
-0.6%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
14,223
14,412
14,606
14,806
15,012
14,864
13,887
13,904
13,838
14,130
12,658
13,755
14,417
15,047
15,686
0.7%
2.6%
0.3%
0.3%
12,672
12,870
13,081
13,300
13,526
11,716
11,691
11,632
11,732
12,354
0.0%
1.6%
0.3%
0.3%
26,896
27,282
27,687
28,106
28,538
26,580
25,578
25,536
25,570
26,485
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1,319
1,319
1,319
1,319
1,319
1,309
1,292
1,317
1,326
1,319
ITINERANT
-1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1,155
1,155
1,155
1,155
1,155
1,298
1,203
1,145
1,200
1,155
LOCAL
TOTAL
LOCAL
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
AIR
AIR TAXI/
CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT
FISCAL YEAR
MILITARY
GENERAL AVIATION
(In Thousands)
-0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2,474
2,474
2,474
2,474
2,474
2,607
2,495
2,462
2,526
2,474
TOTAL
WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE
TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS
TABLE 32
0.1%
2.1%
0.7%
0.8%
52,868
54,332
56,685
59,281
62,037
51,255
49,722
49,995
50,322
51,770
TOTAL
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
FAA
254
254
254
254
254
244
252
252
253
254
CONTRACT
NUMBER OF TOWERS
104
2.4%
3.8%
2.4%
2.1%
16,501
19,263
20,972
22,856
24,834
13,174
13,948
14,640
15,276
15,900
AIR CARRIER
Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
-3.4%
1.0%
-2.6%
-0.8%
7,288
5,321
5,597
5,903
6,228
9,511
7,861
7,672
7,281
7,216
AIR TAXI/
COMMUTER
-0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
13,575
13,777
14,079
14,401
14,737
13,864
13,076
13,090
13,276
13,513
GENERAL
AVIATION
(In Thousands)
TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS
TABLE 33
-0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2,260
2,260
2,260
2,260
2,260
2,438
2,286
2,311
2,254
2,260
MILITARY
0.0%
1.9%
0.8%
1.0%
39,623
40,621
42,907
45,419
48,059
38,987
37,171
37,713
38,085
38,888
TOTAL
105
2.2%
2.6%
2.2%
2.0%
Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity
2010-18
2018-19
2019-29
2019-39
Avg Annual Growth
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
Forecast
27,396
30,503
33,987
37,476
41,097
22,342
25,270
26,318
26,074
26,692
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Historical
AIR
CARRIER
FISCAL YEAR
0.6%
-2.1%
-1.5%
-0.5%
8,864
7,791
7,589
7,725
8,001
8,624
7,847
7,787
8,591
9,055
1.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.8%
7,468
7,671
7,986
8,358
8,767
6,550
7,007
7,301
7,428
7,407
-6.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1,726
1,726
1,726
1,726
1,726
2,982
1,795
1,826
1,765
1,726
IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED
AIR TAXI/
GENERAL
COMMUTER
AVIATION
MILITARY
(In Thousands)
AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS
IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED
TABLE 34
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.4%
45,454
47,692
51,288
55,285
59,592
40,498
41,918
43,231
43,857
44,880
TOTAL
| File Type | application/pdf |
| File Modified | 0000-00-00 |
| File Created | 0000-00-00 |