Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports

Price Reactions After USDA Livestock
Reports
ISSN: 1949-1913

Released March 25, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Livestock Reports and Price Comparisons
This report contains price reactions to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Cattle on Feed, Quarterly
Hogs and Pigs, and Milk Production reports.
The USDA Cattle on Feed report is released monthly and publishes on-feed inventory, fed cattle marketings, and feeder
cattle placements. Annual average price reactions to the Cattle on Feed reports are provided in this publication using
prices data from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Market News reports.
The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are published each year in March, June, September, and December and
provide data on hog and pig inventory, sows farrowing, pig crop estimates, and 3-month and 6-month farrowing
intentions. Annual average price reactions to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are provided in this publication using
prices data from the AMS Market News reports.
The AMS prices used in this report for cattle and hogs represent sales from producers to first buyers at major markets. The
price reaction to the Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports is indicated by the difference between the price
the week prior and the week after each report.
The Milk Production report is released monthly and provides data on the number of milk cows, milk per cow and total
milk production for the 23 major milk producing States. Dairy products price reactions to the USDA Milk Production
reports are also provided in this publication. The butter and cheddar cheese prices in this publication are based on the
daily cash settlement prices reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Weekly average prices are computed for the
week before and the week after the release of each Milk Production report.

Annual Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases
[Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year]
Number of and average price changes
Marketing
year

Week prior to release
Increases
Number

Week after release

Decreases

Average

Number

(dollars)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1

1

....................................
....................................
....................................
....................................
....................................
....................................
....................................
....................................
....................................
....................................
....................................

9
2
9
5
6
5
7
4
8
5
6

1.73
1.65
0.96
0.78
0.95
1.72
2.39
2.14
1.44
0.55
4.03

Increases

Average

Number

(dollars)
3
10
3
7
6
7
5
8
4
7
6

Decreases

Average

Number

Average

(dollars)

1.85
1.43
1.26
1.36
1.81
0.91
1.15
2.53
1.39
0.91
2.07

5
5
7
8
9
6
3
7
6
8
8

(dollars)

4.07
1.01
1.76
1.67
1.57
1.26
2.03
2.41
1.06
2.40
2.45

7
7
5
4
3
6
9
5
6
4
4

1.83
1.28
1.61
1.51
1.03
0.62
0.97
1.67
1.77
0.82
1.79

Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska,
Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change.
Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service.

Monthly Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases
Average price 1
Release date

Inventory
change2

(percent)
January 24, 2014 ...................................
February 21, 2014 ..................................
March 21, 2014 ......................................
April 25, 2014 .........................................
May 16, 2014 .........................................
June 20, 2014 ........................................
July 25, 2014 .........................................
August 22, 2014 .....................................
September 19, 2014 ..............................
October 24, 2014 ...................................
November 21, 2014 ...............................
December 19, 2014 ...............................

-4.2
-2.8
-0.5
-0.6
-1.0
-1.6
-2.4
-1.9
-0.8
-0.5
0.5
1.4

Change from

Week
prior

Week of
release

Week
after

Week
before to
week of
release

Week of
release
to week
after

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

142.50
142.08
150.00
146.72
148.05
149.41
156.04
154.77
161.04
163.83
170.06
162.67

148.40
145.56
150.84
146.27
146.38
149.18
163.43
153.14
156.90
169.04
171.42
158.38

145.38
150.55
152.17
147.80
144.39
154.34
162.79
155.66
157.07
167.52
171.66
162.05

5.90
3.48
0.84
-0.45
-1.67
-0.23
7.39
-1.63
-4.14
5.21
1.36
-4.29

-3.02
4.99
1.33
1.53
-1.99
5.16
-0.64
2.52
0.17
-1.52
0.24
3.67

1

Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska,
Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change.
Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service.
2
Percent change from previous year at time of each report.

2

Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports (March 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Annual Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases
[Marketing year represents December of the previous year through November of current year]
Number of and average price changes
Marketing
year

Week prior to release
Increases
Number

Week after release

Decreases

Average

Number

1
2

3
3
0
2
3
3
2
3
1
1
3

Increases

Average

(dollars)
2004 ...............................
2005 ...............................
2006 ...............................
2007 ...............................
2008 ...............................
2009 ...............................
2010 ...............................
2011 ...............................
2012 ...............................
2013 2 .............................
2014 ...............................

1

Number

(dollars)

2.13
0.38
0.00
1.85
1.78
0.50
0.82
2.73
4.68
1.61
3.28

1
1
4
2
1
1
2
1
3
3
1

Decreases

Average

Number

Average

(dollars)

0.28
1.85
2.52
2.87
1.28
0.86
0.60
0.08
2.04
0.95
0.52

1
1
1
1
1
3
2
3
2
3
3

(dollars)

0.12
6.56
3.15
1.45
0.90
1.41
2.24
3.04
1.78
1.20
0.96

3
3
3
3
3
1
2
1
2
0
1

2.33
1.05
1.10
2.78
1.33
0.54
1.12
0.30
0.11
0.00
0.04

Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service.
Week after release is missing the October 7, 2013 Market News Report due to government furlough.

Quarterly Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases
Average price 1
Release date

Inventory
change 2

(percent)

Change from

Week
prior

Week of
release

Week
after

Week
before to
week of
release

Week of
release
to week
after

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

March 28, 2013 ......................................
June 28, 2013 ........................................
September 27, 2013 3 ............................
December 27, 2013 ...............................

1.5
0.0
0.3
-0.1

53.74
74.30
70.20
57.04

55.35
73.89
68.61
56.52

58.37
74.26

3.02
0.37

57.59

1.61
-0.41
-1.59
-0.52

March 27, 2014 ......................................
June 27, 2014 ........................................
September 26, 2014 ..............................
December 23, 2014 ...............................

-3.3
-4.7
-2.3
2.0

91.42
88.51
77.55
58.00

94.57
93.04
79.72
55.76

94.54
94.25
80.33
55.94

3.15
4.53
2.17
-2.24

-0.04
1.21
0.61
0.18

1.07

1

Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price. Source: Market News, Agricultural Marketing Service.
Percent change from previous year at time of each report.
3
October 7, 2013 Market News Report not available due to government furlough.
2

Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports (March 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Annual Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases
[Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year]
Number of and average price changes
Week prior to release

Marketing
year

Increases
Number

Week after release
Decreases

Average

Number

1

.......................
.......................
.......................
.......................
.......................

7
6
6
7
8

Increases

Average

(dollars)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

1

Number

(dollars)

0.0392
0.0280
0.0428
0.0378
0.0552

4
5
6
5
4

Decreases

Average

Number

Average

(dollars)

0.0236
0.0488
0.0525
0.0320
0.1628

8
5
6
6
9

(dollars)

0.0467
0.0328
0.0359
0.0390
0.0718

3
6
6
6
3

0.1115
0.0434
0.0429
0.0490
0.0547

Prices based on the simple average on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. Total increases and
decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged.

Monthly Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases
Average price 1
Release date

Production
change 2

(percent)
January 23, 2014 ....................................
February 20, 2014 ...................................
March 19, 2014 .......................................
April 21, 2014 ..........................................
May 19, 2014 ..........................................
June 18, 2014 .........................................
July 18, 2014 ..........................................
August 19, 2014 ......................................
September 19, 2014 ...............................
October 20, 2014 ....................................
November 19, 2014 ................................
December 19, 2014 ................................

1.0
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.5
2.0
4.0
2.6
4.1
3.9
3.5

Change from

Week
prior

Week of
release

Week
after

Week
before to
week of
release

Week of
release
to week
after

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

1.7740
1.7640
1.8840
1.9025
2.1645
2.1950
2.3845
2.5320
2.9860
2.3020
1.9930
1.9340

1.9000
1.7763
1.9070
1.8970
2.1670
2.2205
2.4170
2.7155
3.0220
1.9495
1.9910
1.6430

1.8935
1.8070
1.9700
1.9695
2.2850
2.3365
2.5840
2.7560
3.0580
1.8400
1.9933
1.5950

0.1260
0.0123
0.0230
-0.0055
0.0025
0.0255
0.0325
0.1835
0.0360
-0.3525
-0.0020
-0.2910

-0.0065
0.0307
0.0630
0.0725
0.1180
0.1160
0.1670
0.0405
0.0360
-0.1095
0.0023
-0.0480

- Represents zero.
Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week.
2
Percent change from previous year at time of each report.
1

4

Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports (March 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Annual Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases
[Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year]
Number of and average price changes
Week prior to release

Marketing
year

Increases
Number

Week after release
Decreases

Average

Number

1

.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................
.....................

7
7
7
6
9

Increases

Average

(dollars)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

1

Number

(dollars)

0.0262
0.0302
0.0389
0.0399
0.0455

5
5
5
6
3

Decreases

Average

Number

Average

(dollars)

0.0368
0.0788
0.0412
0.0404
0.0673

10
7
7
4
7

(dollars)

0.0220
0.0513
0.0467
0.0504
0.0471

2
5
5
8
5

0.0502
0.1029
0.0347
0.0429
0.0729

Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week.
Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged.

Monthly Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases
Average price 1
Release date

Production
change 2

(percent)
January 23, 2014 ....................................
February 20, 2014 ..................................
March 19 2014 ........................................
April 21, 2014 .........................................
May 19, 2014 ..........................................
June 18, 2014 .........................................
July 18, 2014 ..........................................
August 19, 2014 .....................................
September 19, 2014 ...............................
October 20, 2014 ....................................
November 19, 2014 ................................
December 19, 2014 ................................

1.0
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.5
2.0
4.0
2.6
4.1
3.9
3.5

Change from

Week
prior

Week of
release

Week
after

Week
before to
week of
release

Week of
release
to week
after

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

2.1765
2.1035
2.2755
2.1950
1.9720
1.9650
1.9645
2.1700
2.3300
2.1040
1.9670
1.5015

2.2475
2.1006
2.3050
2.2115
1.9840
1.9930
2.0415
2.2385
2.4080
2.0250
1.8470
1.5760

2.2990
2.1905
2.3355
2.1250
1.9575
2.0300
2.0245
2.3060
2.4520
2.0345
1.6908
1.4975

0.0710
-0.0029
0.0295
0.0165
0.0120
0.0280
0.0770
0.0685
0.0780
-0.0790
-0.1200
0.0745

0.0515
0.0899
0.0305
-0.0865
-0.0265
0.0370
-0.0170
0.0675
0.0440
0.0095
-0.1562
-0.0785

- Represents zero.
Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week.
2
Percent change from previous year at time of each report.
1

Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports (March 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

5

Annual Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases
[Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year]
Number of and average price changes
Week prior to release

Marketing
year

Increases
Number

Week after release
Decreases

Average

Number

1

....................
....................
....................
....................
....................

7
7
6
6
8

Increases

Average

(dollars)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

1

Number

(dollars)

0.0309
0.0426
0.0481
0.0409
0.0510

5
5
6
6
4

Decreases

Average

Number

Average

(dollars)

0.0606
0.0900
0.0323
0.0355
0.0615

9
6
6
6
6

(dollars)

0.0236
0.0563
0.0377
0.0376
0.0354

3
5
6
6
6

0.0424
0.0936
0.0253
0.0287
0.0610

Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week.
Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged.

Monthly Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases
Average price 1
Release date

Production
change 2

(percent)
January 23, 2014 ...................................
February 20, 2014 ..................................
March 19, 2014 ......................................
April 21, 2014 .........................................
May 19, 2014 .........................................
June 18, 2014 ........................................
July 18, 2014 .........................................
August 19, 2014 .....................................
September 19, 2014 ..............................
October 20, 2014 ...................................
November 19, 2014 ...............................
December 19, 2014 ...............................

1.0
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.5
2.0
4.0
2.6
4.1
3.9
3.5

Change from

Week
prior

Week of
release

Week
after

Week
before to
week of
release

Week of
release
to week
after

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

(dollars)

2.2115
2.1100
2.3315
2.2213
2.0070
2.0420
1.9555
2.1480
2.3500
2.2380
2.0110
1.5880

2.2794
2.1269
2.4150
2.2205
1.9880
2.0200
2.0100
2.2315
2.4070
2.2635
1.8070
1.6075

2.3370
2.2060
2.4160
2.1350
1.9850
2.0240
2.0110
2.3010
2.3450
2.1260
1.7142
1.5616

0.0679
0.0169
0.0835
-0.0008
-0.0190
-0.0220
0.0545
0.0835
0.0570
0.0255
-0.2040
0.0195

0.0576
0.0791
0.0010
-0.0855
-0.0030
0.0040
0.0010
0.0695
-0.0620
-0.1375
-0.0928
-0.0459

- Represents zero.
Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week.
2
Percent change from previous year at time of each report.
1

6

Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports (March 2015)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected].
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-3570
Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ............................................................................................................ (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..................................................................................................... (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter ................................................................................................ (202) 720-3240
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ................................................................................................................. (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products .................................................................................................................. (202) 690-3236
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows ....................................................................................... (202) 720-3278
Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats ............................................................................................................... (202) 720-6147

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