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pdfSTATISTICS OF INCOME DIVISION
RESEARCH, APPLIED ANALYTICS, AND STATISTICS
Publication 6292
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States: 2019–2026
Fall 2019
w w w.i r s.g ov/st at i st i c s
Publication 6292 (revised 9-2019) is a product of the IRS Statistics of Income Division
within the Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics organization.
Department of the Treasury
Internal Revenue Service
Charles P. Rettig
Commissioner
Jeffrey J. Tribiano
Deputy Commissioner for Operations Support
Barry W. Johnson
Acting Chief Research and Analytics Officer
David P. Paris
Acting Director, Statistics of Income Division
Laura R. Rasmussen
Chief, Statistical Services Branch
Timothy S. Castle
Chief, Servicewide Support Section
Fiscal Year Return
Projections for
the United States:
2019–2026
Publication 6292
Fall 2019
Suggested Citation
Internal Revenue Service
Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics
Statistics of Income Division
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States
Publication 6292 (Rev. 9-2019)
Washington, D.C. 20224
Table of Contents
(Fall 2019)
Principal Contacts...................................................................................................................... iii
Online Availability of Forecasts................................................................................................... iii
Overview.....................................................................................................................................1
Data Sources and Projection Methodology.................................................................................1
Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions............................................................................1
Accuracy of Prior Projections......................................................................................................2
Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns
To Be Filed with IRS, 2019–2026.................................................................................3
Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by
Business Operating Division, 2019–2026.....................................................................5
Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major
Return Categories.........................................................................................................6
Table Notes.................................................................................................................................7
Projection Publication Series............................................................................Inside Back Cover
(ii)
Principal Contacts
Questions or comments regarding these return forecasts or related matters can be directed to
the corresponding staff member listed below.
Business Returns
Jeff Matsuo
Derrick Dennis
Yan Liu
(202) 803-9363
(202) 803-9337
(202) 803-9357
Individual Returns (Estimated Tax, Extensions, and
Amended)
Michelle Chu
Andre Palmer
(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9368
Other Comments or Questions
Andre Palmer
Michelle Chu
(202) 803-9368
(202) 803-9369
Online Availability of Forecasts
Forecasts from the most recent edition of this publication may be found on the IRS Internet site.
The World Wide Web address is: www.irs.gov/statistics. From the Website, select “All Topics” in
the “Products, Publications & Papers” section.
We thank our customers for their support as we continually seek to improve our products
and services wherever possible. We welcome customer feedback at any time. Comments
and suggestions regarding this publication can be directed to Timothy Castle, Chief, Servicewide Support Section, at (202) 803-9106.
David P. Paris
Acting Director, Statistics of Income Division
(iii)
Overview
The Fall 2019 edition of IRS Publication 6292, Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States, provides U.S.-level projections of the number of tax returns expected to be filed in Fiscal
Year (FY) 2019 through FY 2026 by: (1) major return categories; and (2) business operating
divisions.
Statistics of Income (SOI) staff within the IRS Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics (RAAS)
organization prepare these projections semiannually to incorporate changes in filing patterns,
economic and demographic trends, legislative requirements, and IRS administrative processes.
The Fall 2019 projections are based on information available as of early-August 2019, including
enacted tax law changes and confirmed administrative plans. However, the projections do not
incorporate pending legislative or administrative initiatives under consideration.
Data Sources and Projection Methodology
SOI staff used the reported actual number of returns filed in FY 2018 for each filing category to
estimate the expected FY 2019 through FY 2026 return counts. The source data came from the
IRS Master File, which reports the historical number of returns processed and recorded each
year. In cases where master file return counts were not available, SOI staff relied on counts provided by program staff in the IRS operating divisions.
In general, the projections presented in this publication are computed for the calendar year
of filing, and then converted to the corresponding fiscal year based on the historical quarterly
filing experience. The projections are derived from various statistical models that capture and
extrapolate historical filing trends by unique form types and filing mediums. Most models use
time series extrapolation methods, such as trended exponential smoothing. However, some
return types, particularly individual income tax filings, are based on regression models that use
economic and demographic variables, such as total employment and gross domestic product,
as key input factors. In these instances, forecasts of the economic and demographic data series
used by the SOI staff as predictor variables were provided by IHS Global Inc. Additionally, where
historical data were limited or nonexistent, such as for new e-file products, the filing pattern for a
comparable return type was applied. Customers interested in obtaining more details about this
publication’s projection methodologies are welcome to contact us. (See “Principal Contacts” on
page iii for subject areas and contact information.)
Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions
A summary of the major trends and other significant factors related to the return forecasts for this
edition of Publication 6292 are noted below:
Trend in Grand Total Return Filings
As presented in Table 1, grand total return filings were 254.0 million in FY 2018, an increase of
2.5 percent over FY 2017. After FY 2018, grand total return filings are projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 0.7 percent, reaching 269.4 million by FY 2026. The paper grand total
return filings were 74.5 million in FY 2018, a decrease of 0.2 percent from the FY 2017 total. The
electronic grand total return filings were 179.5 million in FY 2018, an increase of 3.7 percent over
FY 2017. After FY 2018, electronic grand total return filings are projected to grow at an average
annual rate of 2.4 percent.
(1)
Detail by Business Operating Division
Table 2 presents estimates of selected return filings by IRS “Business Operating Division” (BOD).
The selected returns include total individual income tax returns, corporation income tax returns,
partnership returns, employment returns, excise returns, and exempt organization returns. As
applicable, these volumes are broken out by their operating division components: “Wage and Investment” (W&I), “Small Business/Self-Employed” (SB/SE), “Large Business and International”
(LB&I), and “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” (TE/GE). Also included are the projected total
filings of employee plan (EP) returns, including those processed by the Department of Labor,
which comprise major return filings by taxpayers served by the TE/GE operating division.
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), enacted on December 22, 2017, changed the way tax is
calculated for both individual and business tax return filers. Most of the changes affecting these
filers became effective January 2018. While some changes sunset at the end of 2025, others
are permanent. Highlights of the new tax law changes include revised business expense deductions, increased standard deduction, removed personal exemptions, changed tax rates and
brackets, increased child tax credit, and limited or discontinued deductions.
Taxpayer First Act
The Taxpayer First Act (TFA), enacted on July 1, 2019, would make filing electronically a more
widespread practice for business taxpayers. Two of the TFA provisions would directly affect the
forecasts provided in this publication. First, the TFA lowers the thresholds needed for corporations and partnerships to file electronically starting in Calendar Year 2021. Second, the TFA
makes electronic filing mandatory for exempt organizations (Form 990 series) and political organizations (Form 8872) starting in Tax Year 2021, with a temporary waiver for small business
filers. Both provisions would increase the number of electronic filings for the various forms and
would either decrease, or eliminate all together, the amount of paper filings.
Accuracy of Prior Projections
To measure the quality of our products and services, this section, along with Table 3, provides
a brief analysis of the accuracy of prior projections. Using 4 years of actual data, from 2015
through 2018, Table 3 presents the accuracy of our national-level projections by major return
categories. This analysis covers only the major return categories projected on a calendar-year
basis and serves as a general measure for approximating the overall reliability of our U.S.-level
return projections.
The table presents two measures of projection accuracy: (1) the mean absolute percent error
(MAPE); and (2) the number of overprojections. The MAPE is computed as the average percentage projection error for the 4-year period, regardless of whether the projections were over
or under the actual filings in each of the 4 projection cycles. In addition, the number of overprojections can show whether projections are consistently over- or underprojected. A value of “2”
indicates balanced forecasts over the four cycles.
The table groups these two measures by time horizon. The time horizon is determined based on
the year a forecast was made and the year projected. For example, a forecast for 2017 made in
2014 would be part of the “3-years-ahead” time horizon.
(2)
Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2019–2026
Type of Return
Grand Total
Paper Grand Total
Projected
Actual—
FY 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
254,001,709
256,649,900
258,606,600
260,448,300
262,225,900
263,859,700
265,674,900
2026
(9)
267,472,000
269,387,400
74,543,740
71,244,900
67,825,900
64,641,500
61,764,200
59,059,500
56,678,400
54,370,000
52,152,700
179,457,969
185,405,100
190,780,700
195,806,800
200,461,700
204,800,200
208,996,500
213,102,100
217,234,700
Total Primary Returns
225,152,891
Individual Income Tax, Total
Electronic Grand Total
227,267,500
228,744,900
230,140,100
231,489,300
232,809,600
234,114,000
235,407,300
236,824,200
152,937,949
154,601,100
156,093,400
157,596,700
159,100,000
160,603,300
162,106,600
163,609,900
165,113,200
Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ, Total*
151,934,683
153,588,700
155,047,200
156,516,700
157,986,200
159,455,600
160,925,100
162,394,500
163,864,000
Paper Forms 1040/1040-A/1040-EZ*
17,673,132
16,483,400
15,289,900
14,241,300
13,480,000
12,878,900
12,360,100
11,887,300
11,498,300
134,261,551
137,105,300
139,757,300
142,275,400
144,506,100
146,576,700
148,565,000
150,507,200
152,365,600
842,750
855,000
895,200
935,400
975,700
1,015,900
1,056,100
1,096,300
1,136,500
Electronic Form 1040-NR
253,018
274,000
420,000
496,400
558,000
608,100
650,600
688,600
724,500
Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
160,516
157,400
151,000
144,600
138,200
131,800
125,400
119,000
Electronic Forms 1040/1040-A/1040-EZ*
Forms 1040-NR/NR-EZ/C
Electronic Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES, Total
Paper Form 1040-ES
Electronic (Credit Card) Form 1040-ES
Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total
Paper Form 1041
Electronic Form 1041
Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES
112,600
35,650
36,000
36,000
36,000
36,000
36,000
36,000
36,000
36,000
22,367,571
21,731,600
21,095,500
20,459,500
19,823,500
19,187,500
18,551,500
17,915,500
17,279,400
22,143,226
21,482,600
20,826,200
20,173,000
19,522,600
18,874,800
18,229,300
17,585,900
16,938,700
224,345
248,900
269,400
286,500
300,900
312,700
322,200
329,600
340,800
3,096,806
3,119,400
3,107,100
3,095,300
3,083,500
3,071,700
3,059,900
3,048,100
3,036,200
530,313
419,000
366,200
326,900
294,600
268,100
246,400
228,600
209,100
2,566,493
2,700,400
2,740,900
2,768,400
2,788,900
2,803,600
2,813,400
2,819,400
2,827,200
696,167
824,300
831,500
831,500
831,500
831,500
831,500
831,500
831,500
4,239,198
4,314,800
4,410,100
4,505,300
4,600,600
4,695,800
4,791,000
4,886,300
5,114,700
539,367
486,300
438,200
394,400
360,600
328,700
300,900
276,500
252,100
Electronic Forms 1065/1065-B
3,699,831
3,828,500
3,971,900
4,110,900
4,240,000
4,367,100
4,490,200
4,609,800
4,862,600
Corporation Income Tax, Total
Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total
Paper Forms 1065/1065-B
7,209,185
7,468,100
7,646,300
7,775,700
7,877,600
7,963,500
8,040,200
8,111,300
8,174,600
Paper Corporation Returns, Total
1,430,754
1,384,500
1,344,200
1,300,900
1,251,900
1,217,600
1,191,300
1,169,200
1,150,500
Electronic Corporation Returns, Total
5,778,431
6,083,600
6,302,100
6,474,800
6,625,700
6,746,000
6,848,900
6,942,100
7,024,100
Form 1120, Total
1,720,920
1,779,100
1,787,200
1,785,200
1,779,100
1,771,300
1,762,900
1,754,200
1,745,400
Paper Form 1120
398,815
400,600
395,400
380,900
358,400
343,500
332,300
321,800
311,700
1,322,105
1,378,500
1,391,800
1,404,200
1,420,700
1,427,800
1,430,600
1,432,400
1,433,700
Form 1120-C
9,633
9,300
9,300
9,300
9,300
9,300
9,300
9,300
9,300
Form 1120-F
49,211
51,800
53,000
54,100
55,200
56,400
57,500
58,600
59,800
Electronic Form 1120
Paper Form 1120-F
Electronic Form 1120-F
Form 1120-H
Forms 1120-FSC/L/ND/PC/REIT/RIC/SF
21,907
21,200
20,900
20,600
20,500
20,300
20,200
20,100
20,000
27,304
30,700
32,100
33,400
34,800
36,100
37,300
38,600
39,800
260,008
268,200
274,500
280,800
287,200
293,500
299,900
306,200
312,600
41,355
45,900
47,200
48,300
49,400
50,500
51,500
52,500
53,500
5,128,058
5,313,800
5,475,200
5,598,000
5,697,400
5,782,500
5,859,100
5,930,400
5,994,100
699,036
639,400
597,000
560,900
527,100
500,400
478,100
459,300
443,500
4,429,022
4,674,400
4,878,200
5,037,100
5,170,300
5,282,100
5,380,900
5,471,100
5,550,600
492,634
508,900
523,100
537,300
551,400
565,600
579,800
593,900
608,100
"REMIC" Income Tax, Form 1066
42,406
43,200
44,000
44,900
45,700
46,500
47,300
48,100
Estate, Forms 706, 706NA/GS(D)/GS(T), Total
34,092
34,100
33,000
31,400
27,800
26,000
24,600
23,600
22,600
245,584
245,600
245,400
246,700
247,900
249,100
250,400
251,600
252,800
Form 1120-S, Total
Paper Form 1120-S
Electronic Form 1120-S
Small Corporation Election, Form 2553
Gift, Form 709
Employment Tax, Total
48,900
30,891,786
31,380,600
31,657,700
31,908,200
32,140,600
32,359,300
32,569,800
32,775,300
32,977,700
Paper Employment Returns, Total
17,328,799
16,851,300
16,280,200
15,716,800
15,160,700
14,608,900
14,062,900
13,522,800
12,988,400
Electronic Employment Returns, Total
13,562,987
14,529,300
15,377,500
16,191,300
16,979,900
17,750,400
18,506,900
19,252,500
19,989,300
5,936,710
6,064,500
6,108,000
6,149,900
6,191,400
6,232,900
6,274,300
6,315,800
6,357,200
Paper Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR
3,345,924
3,246,700
3,130,900
3,019,400
2,913,400
2,812,900
2,717,600
2,627,400
Form 940 E-File/Online/XML
2,590,786
2,817,800
2,977,100
3,130,400
3,278,000
3,420,000
3,556,700
3,688,300
3,815,000
24,638,991
25,012,100
25,256,800
25,476,400
25,675,300
25,861,100
26,038,600
26,210,900
26,379,900
Paper 941, 941-PR/SS, Total
13,685,454
13,322,200
12,881,000
12,443,000
12,003,100
11,562,700
11,122,500
10,682,800
10,243,600
Form 941 E-File/Online/XML
10,953,537
11,689,800
12,375,800
13,033,400
13,672,200
14,298,300
14,916,100
15,528,100
16,136,300
185,373
180,500
176,900
173,300
169,700
166,100
162,500
158,900
155,300
176,887
170,000
164,600
159,200
154,500
149,800
145,200
140,600
136,200
8,486
10,400
12,300
14,100
15,200
16,300
17,300
18,300
19,100
68,917
64,700
60,600
56,500
55,200
53,200
51,100
49,100
47,000
61,196
56,900
52,300
47,500
45,600
42,800
40,000
37,300
34,500
7,721
7,800
8,300
9,000
9,700
10,400
11,100
11,800
12,500
59,976
57,100
53,600
50,400
47,300
44,300
41,500
38,900
36,400
Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR, Total
Forms 941, 941-PR, and 941-SS, Total
Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS, Total
Paper Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Electronic Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS, Total
Paper Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS
Electronic Form 944
Form 945, Total
Paper Form 945
2,542,200
57,519
53,700
49,700
45,900
42,300
39,000
35,900
32,900
30,100
Electronic Form 945
2,457
3,400
4,000
4,500
4,900
5,300
5,700
6,000
6,300
Form CT-1
Footnotes are at end of table.
1,819
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
(3)
Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2019–2026—Continued
Type of Return
Withholding on Foreign Persons, Form 1042
Exempt Organizations, Total
Paper Exempt Organizations, Total
Electronic Exempt Organizations, Total
Form 990, Total
Paper Form 990
Electronic Form 990
Form 990-EZ, Total
Projected
Actual—
FY 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
2026
(9)
50,868
51,900
52,600
53,400
54,200
54,900
55,700
56,500
57,200
1,600,855
1,659,400
1,703,800
1,743,800
1,784,000
1,824,400
1,864,900
1,905,500
1,946,300
518,744
487,200
420,400
364,600
293,200
291,700
290,300
289,000
287,700
1,082,111
1,172,200
1,283,500
1,379,200
1,490,800
1,532,700
1,574,600
1,616,500
1,658,500
317,199
316,400
315,800
315,300
315,000
314,700
314,500
314,400
314,300
73,206
53,500
23,900
0
0
0
0
0
0
243,993
262,800
291,800
315,300
315,000
314,700
314,500
314,400
314,300
239,085
232,300
232,300
232,300
232,300
232,300
232,300
232,300
232,300
Paper Form 990-EZ
108,131
95,400
69,100
45,800
0
0
0
0
0
Electronic Form 990-EZ
130,954
136,900
163,300
186,600
232,300
232,300
232,300
232,300
232,300
641,832
696,800
741,100
780,700
820,400
860,000
899,600
939,200
978,800
113,215
115,700
118,200
120,700
123,200
125,700
128,100
130,600
133,100
47,883
40,100
30,900
24,100
0
0
0
0
0
Form 990-N**
Form 990-PF, Total
Paper Form 990-PF
Electronic Form 990-PF
Form 990-T***
65,332
75,600
87,300
96,600
123,200
125,700
128,100
130,600
133,100
188,334
198,800
198,800
198,800
198,800
198,800
198,800
198,800
198,800
Form 4720
2,475
2,700
2,700
2,700
2,700
2,700
2,700
2,700
2,700
Form 5227
98,715
96,700
94,900
93,200
91,700
90,200
88,800
87,500
86,200
Form 1041-A
7,103
7,400
7,400
7,400
7,400
7,400
7,400
7,400
7,400
45,324
44,000
43,700
43,300
42,900
42,500
42,200
41,800
41,400
3,086
3,100
3,100
3,100
3,100
3,100
3,100
3,100
3,100
Form 8038-CP
10,592
10,600
10,600
10,600
10,600
10,600
10,600
10,600
10,600
Form 8038-G
23,250
Government Entity/Bonds
Form 8038
22,100
21,800
21,600
21,300
21,100
20,800
20,600
20,400
7,759
7,700
7,500
7,400
7,300
7,100
7,000
6,900
6,700
Form 8038-T
333
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
Form 8038-TC
125
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Form 8328
179
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
11,215
11,200
12,100
11,800
12,700
12,400
13,200
12,900
13,800
4,140
4,100
3,900
3,800
3,700
3,500
3,400
3,300
3,100
4,100
4,000
3,900
3,800
3,600
3,500
3,400
3,200
3,100
40
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Form 8871****
4,431
4,600
5,100
5,500
5,900
6,300
6,700
7,200
7,600
Form 8872, Total
2,644
2,500
3,100
2,500
3,100
2,500
3,100
2,500
3,100
Form 8038-GC
Political Organizations, Total
Form 1120-POL, Total
Paper Form 1120-POL
Electronic Form 1120-POL
Paper Form 8872
Electronic Form 8872
Excise, Total
Form 11-C
Form 720, Total
Paper Form 720
Electronic Form 720
Form 730
Form 2290, Total
100
630
500
700
200
0
0
0
0
2,014
2,000
2,400
2,300
3,100
2,500
3,100
2,500
3,100
1,038,513
1,076,900
1,094,000
1,105,000
1,116,100
1,127,100
1,138,200
1,149,300
1,160,400
0
3,360
3,500
3,400
3,200
3,100
3,000
2,900
2,700
2,600
188,183
183,900
181,800
180,000
178,200
176,500
174,700
173,000
171,300
186,797
182,300
180,200
178,200
176,300
174,500
172,600
170,800
168,900
1,386
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
22,026
20,800
20,100
19,400
18,700
18,000
17,300
16,600
15,900
817,280
851,700
868,300
882,000
895,700
909,300
923,000
936,600
950,300
Paper Form 2290
239,215
220,000
206,600
199,900
197,500
197,400
198,700
200,600
203,000
Electronic Form 2290
578,065
631,700
661,700
682,100
698,200
711,900
724,300
736,000
747,200
Form 8849, Total
7,664
17,000
20,400
20,400
20,400
20,400
20,400
20,400
20,400
Paper Form 8849
4,112
13,100
16,200
15,900
15,700
15,400
15,100
14,900
14,600
Electronic Form 8849
3,552
3,900
4,200
4,400
4,700
5,000
5,200
5,500
5,800
18,644
18,700
18,500
18,300
18,000
17,800
17,600
17,300
17,100
Excise Taxes re Employee Plans, Form 5330
Form 5500-EZ, One-Participant Retirement Plans
Payment or Refund Under Sec. 7519, Form 8752
Supplemental Documents, Total
Form 1040-X
Form 4868, Total
Paper Form 4868
Electronic Form 4868
Form 1120-X
Form 5558
101,044
101,400
101,500
101,500
101,500
101,500
101,500
101,500
101,500
25,947
24,900
24,100
23,300
22,500
21,700
21,000
20,200
19,400
28,848,818
29,382,400
29,861,700
30,308,100
30,736,700
31,050,100
31,560,800
32,064,700
32,563,100
3,543,054
3,473,500
3,404,300
3,335,100
3,265,900
3,196,800
3,127,600
3,058,400
2,989,200
16,320,210
16,495,100
16,810,400
17,094,900
17,361,400
17,512,900
17,861,700
18,203,600
18,540,000
5,548,802
4,863,400
4,318,100
3,741,900
3,147,800
2,438,600
1,926,600
1,407,900
883,700
10,771,408
11,631,700
12,492,300
13,353,000
14,213,700
15,074,400
15,935,000
16,795,700
17,656,400
12,318
12,700
12,700
12,700
12,700
12,700
12,700
12,700
12,700
515,722
538,000
555,000
572,000
589,000
605,900
622,900
639,900
656,900
7,899,559
8,276,900
8,463,000
8,647,100
8,831,200
9,015,300
9,199,400
9,383,500
9,567,600
Paper Form 7004
1,616,842
1,493,900
1,394,800
1,313,400
1,246,800
1,192,200
1,147,500
1,110,900
1,081,000
Electronic Form 7004
6,282,717
6,783,000
7,068,200
7,333,700
7,584,400
7,823,100
8,051,900
8,272,600
8,486,600
557,955
586,200
616,200
646,300
676,400
706,500
736,600
766,600
796,700
208,016
217,900
229,600
241,200
252,900
264,600
276,300
288,000
299,600
423,500
441,900
460,300
478,700
497,100
Form 7004, Total
Form 8868, Total
Paper Form 8868
Electronic Form 8868
349,939
368,300
386,700
405,100
* Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ for Fiscal Year 2018; beginning in January 2019, a new, streamlined Form 1040 replaced Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ.
** Form 990-N must be filed electronically. There is no paper form.
*** Form 990-T must be filed by paper. However, this will change starting with Tax Year 2021 when the form must be filed electronically (see Taxpayer First Act of 2019).
**** Form 8871 must be filed electronically. There is no paper form.
NOTES: Table does not contain non-master file counts. Each of the forms listed under "Type of Return" is defined in the "Table Notes" of Publication 6292.
Detail may not add to subtotal/total due to rounding.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Fall 2019 Publication 6292.
(4)
Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating Division (BOD), 2019–2026
Type of Return/BOD
Individual Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
Projected
Actual—
FY 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
151,934,683
153,588,700
155,047,200
156,516,700
157,986,200
159,455,600
160,925,100
2026
(9)
162,394,500
163,864,000
47,884,329
48,513,500
49,032,600
49,667,500
50,314,300
50,964,300
51,617,700
52,274,500
52,934,600
104,050,354
105,075,200
106,014,600
106,849,200
107,671,900
108,491,300
109,307,300
110,120,100
110,929,400
7,209,185
7,468,100
7,646,300
7,775,700
7,877,600
7,963,500
8,040,200
8,111,300
8,174,600
7,014,502
7,264,100
7,438,800
7,565,500
7,665,100
7,749,100
7,823,800
7,893,100
7,954,800
Large Business and International
183,909
192,800
196,200
198,800
201,100
203,000
204,900
206,700
208,400
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
10,774
11,100
11,300
11,300
11,400
11,400
11,400
11,500
11,500
4,239,198
4,314,800
4,410,100
4,505,300
4,600,600
4,695,800
4,791,000
4,886,300
5,114,700
Wage and Investment
Corporation Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
Partnership Returns, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
4,020,219
4,092,000
4,182,300
4,272,600
4,362,900
4,453,200
4,543,600
4,633,900
4,850,500
Large Business and International
218,541
222,400
227,400
232,300
237,200
242,100
247,000
251,900
263,700
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
438
400
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
30,891,786
31,380,600
31,657,700
31,908,200
32,140,600
32,359,300
32,569,800
32,775,300
32,977,700
29,996,000
Employment Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
28,092,902
28,540,100
28,792,400
29,020,700
29,232,400
29,431,800
29,623,900
29,811,400
Large Business and International
769,918
781,900
788,300
794,100
799,500
804,500
809,400
814,200
819,000
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
2,028,966
2,058,600
2,077,000
2,093,400
2,108,700
2,122,900
2,136,500
2,149,700
2,162,700
1,038,513
1,076,900
1,094,000
1,105,000
1,116,100
1,127,100
1,138,200
1,149,300
1,160,400
910,035
944,100
959,800
971,300
982,900
994,500
1,006,100
1,017,700
1,029,300
Large Business and International
86,390
89,700
91,000
91,100
91,200
91,400
91,500
91,600
91,700
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
42,088
43,100
43,200
42,600
41,900
41,300
40,600
40,000
39,300
1,600,855
1,659,400
1,703,800
1,743,800
1,784,000
1,824,400
1,864,900
1,905,500
1,946,300
1,600,855
1,659,400
1,703,800
1,743,800
1,784,000
1,824,400
1,864,900
1,905,500
1,946,300
916,751
936,600
950,800
964,300
977,100
989,200
1,000,800
1,011,800
1,022,300
916,751
936,600
950,800
964,300
977,100
989,200
1,000,800
1,011,800
1,022,300
Excise, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
Exempt Organization, Total
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
Employee Plans, Forms 5500, 5500EZ, and 5500SF
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
NOTES: Detail may not add to total due to rounding. See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return/BOD."
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Fall 2019 Publication 6292.
(5)
Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories—Mean Absolute Percent Error
(MAPE) and Number of Overprojections for the Four Most Recent Projection Cycles
Item
Calendar Year
2018 Actual*
(thousands)
(1)
Grand Total—Selected Returns*
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Grand Total—Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Grand Total—E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Total Primary—Selected Returns*
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Primary Total—Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Primary Total—E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total—Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total—E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Estimated Tax
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Fiduciary Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Partnership Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Corporation Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Employment Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Exempt Organization Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Excise Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
253,407
73,242
180,165
225,960
63,205
162,755
152,461
17,761
134,701
22,368
3,134
4,224
7,236
31,089
1,644
1,043
Projection Error on Forecasts for:
1 Year
Ahead
N=4
(2)
2 Years
Ahead
N=4
(3)
3 Years
Ahead
N=4
(4)
4 Years
Ahead
N=4
(5)
5 Years
Ahead
N=4
(6)
0.74%
3
1.20%
3
1.55%
4
1.72%
4
1.59%
4
3.45%
3
4.46%
4
5.18%
4
8.35%
4
13.52%
4
0.71%
1
1.32%
1
0.94%
1
1.78%
1
3.91%
0
0.67%
3
0.96%
4
1.59%
4
1.83%
4
1.66%
4
1.85%
3
3.03%
3
5.29%
4
8.62%
4
12.70%
4
0.50%
2
0.42%
2
0.67%
2
1.37%
1
3.11%
0
0.57%
3
0.91%
4
1.53%
4
2.24%
4
2.36%
4
1.68%
3
3.45%
2
7.94%
2
14.75%
3
23.71%
4
0.46%
2
0.93%
4
1.28%
3
1.48%
2
1.75%
2
2.47%
2
4.40%
4
7.24%
3
7.05%
3
5.91%
3
1.57%
3
3.00%
4
3.52%
3
4.45%
2
4.11%
2
0.92%
1
1.61%
1
3.64%
0
4.68%
1
4.36%
0
1.37%
2
0.73%
1
3.19%
1
5.30%
1
7.03%
2
1.13%
2
0.78%
2
1.78%
2
1.46%
2
2.34%
1
2.46%
3
3.91%
2
5.33%
4
5.48%
3
4.60%
3
0.30%
2
1.70%
2
1.60%
1
6.96%
0
9.51%
0
*Some actuals shown in this table may differ from official counts reported elsewhere because they exclude certain return series only recently projected and whose accuracy cannot yet be evaluated.
NOTE: See the "Accuracy of Prior Projections" section of this publication for an explanation of the two measures of projection accuracy.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Fall 2019 Publication 6292.
(6)
Table Notes
• Detail may not add to total due to rounding.
• Projected return counts are rounded to the nearest hundred; therefore, counts of 49 or fewer
are rounded to 0. However, some forms may report zero filings because they are associated
with only selected areas, or because their filing options were recently established or eliminated.
• Actual and projected return counts for the major categories are based on IRS Master File
processing, as recorded in the electronic versions of the Report of Returns Posted to the IRS
Master Files.
Table 1:
• “Grand Total” is the sum of “Total Primary Returns” and “Supplemental Documents.” The “Total
Primary Returns” category is the sum of all forms shown in the table, excluding “Supplemental
Documents.”
• “Individual Income Tax, Total” is the sum of paper and electronic Forms 1040, 1040-A, 1040-EZ,
1040-NR, 1040-NR-EZ, 1040-PR, 1040-SS, and 1040-C. Beginning with Filing Year 2019,
Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ were replaced with a new, streamlined Form 1040.
• “Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES” includes both paper and electronic Form 1040-ES.
Various return categories, such as Form 1040-ES and other business and individual returns,
include line items to account for alternative tax-filing methods. The “paper-only” components
can be derived by subtracting the electronic counts from their respective return totals.
• “Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total” includes both paper and electronic Form 1041.
• “Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES” is the Estimated Income Tax for Estates and Trusts.
• “Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total” includes both paper and electronic Forms 1065 and
1065-B.
• “Corporation Income Tax, Total” includes Forms 1120 (paper and electronic), 1120-C, 1120-F
(paper and electronic), 1120-H, 1120-FSC, 1120-L, 1120-ND, 1120-PC, 1120-REIT, 1120-RIC,
1120-SF, and 1120-S (paper and electronic). Form 1120-POL volumes are reported separately
under the forms for “Political Organizations.” Form 1120-IC-DISC is not included in these corporation projections.
• “Form 2553” is the Election by a Small Business Corporation (to file Form 1120-S).
• “Form 1066” is the U.S. Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) Income Tax
Return.
• “Estate” includes Forms 706, 706-NA, 706-GS(D), and 706-GS(T).
• “Gift, Form 709” is the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return.
• “Employment Tax, Total” includes paper and electronic Forms 940, 940-EZ, 940-PR, 941,
941-PR, 941-SS, 943, 943-PR, 943-SS, 944, 945, and CT-1. CT-2 is excluded since the return
counts were only available on the non-master file.
(7)
• “Form 1042” is the Annual Withholding Tax Return for U.S. Source Income of Foreign Persons. This form is assigned to the International area. It is sometimes considered an employment tax return but is listed separately here.
• “Exempt Organizations, Total” includes Forms 990 (paper and electronic), 990-EZ (paper and
electronic), 990-N (only available electronically), 990-PF (paper and electronic), 990-T, 4720,
and 5227. Beginning in Tax Year 2021, the Form 990 series must be filed electronically. Temporary waivers will be available for small business filers.
• “Form 1041-A” is the U.S. Information Return, Trust Accumulation of Charitable Amounts.
• “Government Entities/Bonds” includes Forms 8038, 8038-CP, 8038-G, 8038-GC, 8038-T,
8038-TC, and 8328.
• “Political Organizations, Total” includes Forms 1120-POL (paper and electronic), 8871 (only
available electronically), and 8872 (paper and electronic). Beginning in Tax Year 2021, Form
8872 must be filed electronically. Temporary waivers will be available for small business filers.
• “Excise, Total” includes Forms 11-C, 720 (paper and electronic) 730, 2290 (paper and electronic), and 8849 (paper and electronic).
• “Form 5330” is the Return of Excise Taxes Related to Employee Benefit Plans.
• “Form 5500-EZ” is the Annual Return for One-Participant (Owners and Their Spouses) Retirement Plan.
• “Form 8752” is the Required Payment or Refund Under Section 7519.
• “Supplemental Documents” consists mainly of applications for extensions of time to file and
amended tax returns, which include Forms 1040-X, 4868 (both paper and electronic), 1120-X,
5558, 7004 (both paper and electronic), and 8868 (both paper and electronic).
Table 2:
• Individual filers classified as “Small Business/Self-Employed” reflect those taxpayers filing a
Form 1040 return with a Schedule C, Schedule F, Schedule E, and/or Form 2106 attached, or
with mailing addresses or forms considered “International.” All other individual filers are classified as “Wage and Investment.”
• In general, corporation filers (Form 1120 series returns including Form 1120-S) and partnership filers are classified as “Large Business and International” if their reported total assets are
$10 million or more. Corporation and partnership returns with assets below $10 million are
generally classified as “Small Business/Self-Employed.” However, there are also some partnership and corporation returns classified as part of the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities”
operating division.
• Nonprofit organizations, pension plan filers, tribal authorities, and governmental units comprise the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” classification.
• “Employee Plans” returns include paper and electronic Forms 5500, 5500-EZ, and 5500-SF.
Counts by operating division in this table are based primarily upon the IRS Master File “BOD
indicator.” This indicator is a single, point-in-time, taxpayer-level identifier (in contrast to a
return-by-return identifier).
(8)
Other Projection Publications
IRS Publication
Number
Typical Updates
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States
6292
Spring & Fall
Calendar Year Projections of Information and
Withholding Documents for the United States and
IRS Campuses
6961
Summer
Calendar Year Return Projections for the United
States and IRS Campuses
6186
Fall
Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns
by Major Processing Categories
6187
Fall
Calendar Year Return Projections by State
6149
Winter
Title
These publications are available electronically as noted inside the front cover,
or they may also be requested by:
phone at (202) 803-9106, fax at (202) 803-9154,
or writing to the following address:
Internal Revenue Service
Statistics of Income Division OS:RAAS:SOI
Attn: Chief, Servicewide Support Section
1111 Constitution Avenue, NW, K-4100
Washington, D.C. 20224
Publication 6292 (Rev. 9-2019) Catalog Number 59069P Department of the Treasury Internal Revenue Service www.irs.gov/statistics
| File Type | application/pdf |
| File Title | Publication 6292 (Rev. 9-2019) |
| Subject | Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States: 2019-2026, Fall 2019 |
| Author | OS:RAAS:SOI |
| File Modified | 2020-01-01 |
| File Created | 2019-09-11 |