Publication 6292

STATISTICS OF INCOME DIVISION
RESEARCH, APPLIED ANALYTICS, AND STATISTICS

Publication 6292

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States: 2019–2026

Fall 2019

w w w.i r s.g ov/st at i st i c s

Publication 6292 (revised 9-2019) is a product of the IRS Statistics of Income Division
within the Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics organization.

Department of the Treasury
Internal Revenue Service
Charles P. Rettig
Commissioner
Jeffrey J. Tribiano
Deputy Commissioner for Operations Support
Barry W. Johnson
Acting Chief Research and Analytics Officer
David P. Paris
Acting Director, Statistics of Income Division
Laura R. Rasmussen
Chief, Statistical Services Branch
Timothy S. Castle
Chief, Servicewide Support Section

Fiscal Year Return
Projections for
the United States:
2019–2026

Publication 6292
Fall 2019

Suggested Citation
Internal Revenue Service
Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics
Statistics of Income Division
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States
Publication 6292 (Rev. 9-2019)
Washington, D.C. 20224

Table of Contents
(Fall 2019)

Principal Contacts...................................................................................................................... iii
Online Availability of Forecasts................................................................................................... iii
Overview.....................................................................................................................................1
Data Sources and Projection Methodology.................................................................................1
Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions............................................................................1
Accuracy of Prior Projections......................................................................................................2
Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns

To Be Filed with IRS, 2019–2026.................................................................................3
Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by

Business Operating Division, 2019–2026.....................................................................5
Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major

Return Categories.........................................................................................................6
Table Notes.................................................................................................................................7
Projection Publication Series............................................................................Inside Back Cover

(ii)

Principal Contacts
Questions or comments regarding these return forecasts or related matters can be directed to
the corresponding staff member listed below.
Business Returns

Jeff Matsuo
Derrick Dennis
Yan Liu

(202) 803-9363
(202) 803-9337
(202) 803-9357

Individual Returns (Estimated Tax, Extensions, and
Amended)

Michelle Chu
Andre Palmer

(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9368

Other Comments or Questions

Andre Palmer
Michelle Chu

(202) 803-9368
(202) 803-9369

Online Availability of Forecasts
Forecasts from the most recent edition of this publication may be found on the IRS Internet site.
The World Wide Web address is: www.irs.gov/statistics. From the Website, select “All Topics” in
the “Products, Publications & Papers” section.

We thank our customers for their support as we continually seek to improve our products
and services wherever possible. We welcome customer feedback at any time. Comments
and suggestions regarding this publication can be directed to Timothy Castle, Chief, Servicewide Support Section, at (202) 803-9106.

David P. Paris
Acting Director, Statistics of Income Division

(iii)

Overview
The Fall 2019 edition of IRS Publication 6292, Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States, provides U.S.-level projections of the number of tax returns expected to be filed in Fiscal
Year (FY) 2019 through FY 2026 by: (1) major return categories; and (2) business operating
divisions.
Statistics of Income (SOI) staff within the IRS Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics (RAAS)
organization prepare these projections semiannually to incorporate changes in filing patterns,
economic and demographic trends, legislative requirements, and IRS administrative processes.
The Fall 2019 projections are based on information available as of early-August 2019, including
enacted tax law changes and confirmed administrative plans. However, the projections do not
incorporate pending legislative or administrative initiatives under consideration.

Data Sources and Projection Methodology
SOI staff used the reported actual number of returns filed in FY 2018 for each filing category to
estimate the expected FY 2019 through FY 2026 return counts. The source data came from the
IRS Master File, which reports the historical number of returns processed and recorded each
year. In cases where master file return counts were not available, SOI staff relied on counts provided by program staff in the IRS operating divisions.
In general, the projections presented in this publication are computed for the calendar year
of filing, and then converted to the corresponding fiscal year based on the historical quarterly
filing experience. The projections are derived from various statistical models that capture and
extrapolate historical filing trends by unique form types and filing mediums. Most models use
time series extrapolation methods, such as trended exponential smoothing. However, some
return types, particularly individual income tax filings, are based on regression models that use
economic and demographic variables, such as total employment and gross domestic product,
as key input factors. In these instances, forecasts of the economic and demographic data series
used by the SOI staff as predictor variables were provided by IHS Global Inc. Additionally, where
historical data were limited or nonexistent, such as for new e-file products, the filing pattern for a
comparable return type was applied. Customers interested in obtaining more details about this
publication’s projection methodologies are welcome to contact us. (See “Principal Contacts” on
page iii for subject areas and contact information.)

Summary of Significant Trends and Revisions
A summary of the major trends and other significant factors related to the return forecasts for this
edition of Publication 6292 are noted below:
Trend in Grand Total Return Filings
As presented in Table 1, grand total return filings were 254.0 million in FY 2018, an increase of
2.5 percent over FY 2017. After FY 2018, grand total return filings are projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 0.7 percent, reaching 269.4 million by FY 2026. The paper grand total
return filings were 74.5 million in FY 2018, a decrease of 0.2 percent from the FY 2017 total. The
electronic grand total return filings were 179.5 million in FY 2018, an increase of 3.7 percent over
FY 2017. After FY 2018, electronic grand total return filings are projected to grow at an average
annual rate of 2.4 percent.
(1)

Detail by Business Operating Division
Table 2 presents estimates of selected return filings by IRS “Business Operating Division” (BOD).
The selected returns include total individual income tax returns, corporation income tax returns,
partnership returns, employment returns, excise returns, and exempt organization returns. As
applicable, these volumes are broken out by their operating division components: “Wage and Investment” (W&I), “Small Business/Self-Employed” (SB/SE), “Large Business and International”
(LB&I), and “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” (TE/GE). Also included are the projected total
filings of employee plan (EP) returns, including those processed by the Department of Labor,
which comprise major return filings by taxpayers served by the TE/GE operating division.
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), enacted on December 22, 2017, changed the way tax is
calculated for both individual and business tax return filers. Most of the changes affecting these
filers became effective January 2018. While some changes sunset at the end of 2025, others
are permanent. Highlights of the new tax law changes include revised business expense deductions, increased standard deduction, removed personal exemptions, changed tax rates and
brackets, increased child tax credit, and limited or discontinued deductions.
Taxpayer First Act
The Taxpayer First Act (TFA), enacted on July 1, 2019, would make filing electronically a more
widespread practice for business taxpayers. Two of the TFA provisions would directly affect the
forecasts provided in this publication. First, the TFA lowers the thresholds needed for corporations and partnerships to file electronically starting in Calendar Year 2021. Second, the TFA
makes electronic filing mandatory for exempt organizations (Form 990 series) and political organizations (Form 8872) starting in Tax Year 2021, with a temporary waiver for small business
filers. Both provisions would increase the number of electronic filings for the various forms and
would either decrease, or eliminate all together, the amount of paper filings.

Accuracy of Prior Projections
To measure the quality of our products and services, this section, along with Table 3, provides
a brief analysis of the accuracy of prior projections. Using 4 years of actual data, from 2015
through 2018, Table 3 presents the accuracy of our national-level projections by major return
categories. This analysis covers only the major return categories projected on a calendar-year
basis and serves as a general measure for approximating the overall reliability of our U.S.-level
return projections.
The table presents two measures of projection accuracy: (1) the mean absolute percent error
(MAPE); and (2) the number of overprojections. The MAPE is computed as the average percentage projection error for the 4-year period, regardless of whether the projections were over
or under the actual filings in each of the 4 projection cycles. In addition, the number of overprojections can show whether projections are consistently over- or underprojected. A value of “2”
indicates balanced forecasts over the four cycles.
The table groups these two measures by time horizon. The time horizon is determined based on
the year a forecast was made and the year projected. For example, a forecast for 2017 made in
2014 would be part of the “3-years-ahead” time horizon.
(2)

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2019–2026
Type of Return

Grand Total
Paper Grand Total

Projected

Actual—
FY 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

254,001,709

256,649,900

258,606,600

260,448,300

262,225,900

263,859,700

265,674,900

2026
(9)

267,472,000

269,387,400

74,543,740

71,244,900

67,825,900

64,641,500

61,764,200

59,059,500

56,678,400

54,370,000

52,152,700

179,457,969

185,405,100

190,780,700

195,806,800

200,461,700

204,800,200

208,996,500

213,102,100

217,234,700

Total Primary Returns

225,152,891

Individual Income Tax, Total

Electronic Grand Total

227,267,500

228,744,900

230,140,100

231,489,300

232,809,600

234,114,000

235,407,300

236,824,200

152,937,949

154,601,100

156,093,400

157,596,700

159,100,000

160,603,300

162,106,600

163,609,900

165,113,200

Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ, Total*

151,934,683

153,588,700

155,047,200

156,516,700

157,986,200

159,455,600

160,925,100

162,394,500

163,864,000

Paper Forms 1040/1040-A/1040-EZ*

17,673,132

16,483,400

15,289,900

14,241,300

13,480,000

12,878,900

12,360,100

11,887,300

11,498,300

134,261,551

137,105,300

139,757,300

142,275,400

144,506,100

146,576,700

148,565,000

150,507,200

152,365,600

842,750

855,000

895,200

935,400

975,700

1,015,900

1,056,100

1,096,300

1,136,500

Electronic Form 1040-NR

253,018

274,000

420,000

496,400

558,000

608,100

650,600

688,600

724,500

Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS

160,516

157,400

151,000

144,600

138,200

131,800

125,400

119,000

Electronic Forms 1040/1040-A/1040-EZ*
Forms 1040-NR/NR-EZ/C

Electronic Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES, Total
Paper Form 1040-ES
Electronic (Credit Card) Form 1040-ES
Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total
Paper Form 1041
Electronic Form 1041
Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES

112,600

35,650

36,000

36,000

36,000

36,000

36,000

36,000

36,000

36,000

22,367,571

21,731,600

21,095,500

20,459,500

19,823,500

19,187,500

18,551,500

17,915,500

17,279,400

22,143,226

21,482,600

20,826,200

20,173,000

19,522,600

18,874,800

18,229,300

17,585,900

16,938,700

224,345

248,900

269,400

286,500

300,900

312,700

322,200

329,600

340,800

3,096,806

3,119,400

3,107,100

3,095,300

3,083,500

3,071,700

3,059,900

3,048,100

3,036,200

530,313

419,000

366,200

326,900

294,600

268,100

246,400

228,600

209,100

2,566,493

2,700,400

2,740,900

2,768,400

2,788,900

2,803,600

2,813,400

2,819,400

2,827,200

696,167

824,300

831,500

831,500

831,500

831,500

831,500

831,500

831,500

4,239,198

4,314,800

4,410,100

4,505,300

4,600,600

4,695,800

4,791,000

4,886,300

5,114,700

539,367

486,300

438,200

394,400

360,600

328,700

300,900

276,500

252,100

Electronic Forms 1065/1065-B

3,699,831

3,828,500

3,971,900

4,110,900

4,240,000

4,367,100

4,490,200

4,609,800

4,862,600

Corporation Income Tax, Total

Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total
Paper Forms 1065/1065-B

7,209,185

7,468,100

7,646,300

7,775,700

7,877,600

7,963,500

8,040,200

8,111,300

8,174,600

Paper Corporation Returns, Total

1,430,754

1,384,500

1,344,200

1,300,900

1,251,900

1,217,600

1,191,300

1,169,200

1,150,500

Electronic Corporation Returns, Total

5,778,431

6,083,600

6,302,100

6,474,800

6,625,700

6,746,000

6,848,900

6,942,100

7,024,100

Form 1120, Total

1,720,920

1,779,100

1,787,200

1,785,200

1,779,100

1,771,300

1,762,900

1,754,200

1,745,400

Paper Form 1120

398,815

400,600

395,400

380,900

358,400

343,500

332,300

321,800

311,700

1,322,105

1,378,500

1,391,800

1,404,200

1,420,700

1,427,800

1,430,600

1,432,400

1,433,700

Form 1120-C

9,633

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

9,300

Form 1120-F

49,211

51,800

53,000

54,100

55,200

56,400

57,500

58,600

59,800

Electronic Form 1120

Paper Form 1120-F
Electronic Form 1120-F
Form 1120-H
Forms 1120-FSC/L/ND/PC/REIT/RIC/SF

21,907

21,200

20,900

20,600

20,500

20,300

20,200

20,100

20,000

27,304

30,700

32,100

33,400

34,800

36,100

37,300

38,600

39,800

260,008

268,200

274,500

280,800

287,200

293,500

299,900

306,200

312,600

41,355

45,900

47,200

48,300

49,400

50,500

51,500

52,500

53,500

5,128,058

5,313,800

5,475,200

5,598,000

5,697,400

5,782,500

5,859,100

5,930,400

5,994,100

699,036

639,400

597,000

560,900

527,100

500,400

478,100

459,300

443,500

4,429,022

4,674,400

4,878,200

5,037,100

5,170,300

5,282,100

5,380,900

5,471,100

5,550,600

492,634

508,900

523,100

537,300

551,400

565,600

579,800

593,900

608,100

"REMIC" Income Tax, Form 1066

42,406

43,200

44,000

44,900

45,700

46,500

47,300

48,100

Estate, Forms 706, 706NA/GS(D)/GS(T), Total

34,092

34,100

33,000

31,400

27,800

26,000

24,600

23,600

22,600

245,584

245,600

245,400

246,700

247,900

249,100

250,400

251,600

252,800

Form 1120-S, Total
Paper Form 1120-S
Electronic Form 1120-S
Small Corporation Election, Form 2553

Gift, Form 709
Employment Tax, Total

48,900

30,891,786

31,380,600

31,657,700

31,908,200

32,140,600

32,359,300

32,569,800

32,775,300

32,977,700

Paper Employment Returns, Total

17,328,799

16,851,300

16,280,200

15,716,800

15,160,700

14,608,900

14,062,900

13,522,800

12,988,400

Electronic Employment Returns, Total

13,562,987

14,529,300

15,377,500

16,191,300

16,979,900

17,750,400

18,506,900

19,252,500

19,989,300

5,936,710

6,064,500

6,108,000

6,149,900

6,191,400

6,232,900

6,274,300

6,315,800

6,357,200

Paper Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR

3,345,924

3,246,700

3,130,900

3,019,400

2,913,400

2,812,900

2,717,600

2,627,400

Form 940 E-File/Online/XML

2,590,786

2,817,800

2,977,100

3,130,400

3,278,000

3,420,000

3,556,700

3,688,300

3,815,000

24,638,991

25,012,100

25,256,800

25,476,400

25,675,300

25,861,100

26,038,600

26,210,900

26,379,900

Paper 941, 941-PR/SS, Total

13,685,454

13,322,200

12,881,000

12,443,000

12,003,100

11,562,700

11,122,500

10,682,800

10,243,600

Form 941 E-File/Online/XML

10,953,537

11,689,800

12,375,800

13,033,400

13,672,200

14,298,300

14,916,100

15,528,100

16,136,300

185,373

180,500

176,900

173,300

169,700

166,100

162,500

158,900

155,300

176,887

170,000

164,600

159,200

154,500

149,800

145,200

140,600

136,200

8,486

10,400

12,300

14,100

15,200

16,300

17,300

18,300

19,100

68,917

64,700

60,600

56,500

55,200

53,200

51,100

49,100

47,000

61,196

56,900

52,300

47,500

45,600

42,800

40,000

37,300

34,500

7,721

7,800

8,300

9,000

9,700

10,400

11,100

11,800

12,500

59,976

57,100

53,600

50,400

47,300

44,300

41,500

38,900

36,400

Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR, Total

Forms 941, 941-PR, and 941-SS, Total

Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS, Total
Paper Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Electronic Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS, Total
Paper Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS
Electronic Form 944
Form 945, Total
Paper Form 945

2,542,200

57,519

53,700

49,700

45,900

42,300

39,000

35,900

32,900

30,100

Electronic Form 945

2,457

3,400

4,000

4,500

4,900

5,300

5,700

6,000

6,300

Form CT-1
Footnotes are at end of table.

1,819

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

(3)

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2019–2026—Continued
Type of Return

Withholding on Foreign Persons, Form 1042
Exempt Organizations, Total
Paper Exempt Organizations, Total
Electronic Exempt Organizations, Total
Form 990, Total
Paper Form 990
Electronic Form 990
Form 990-EZ, Total

Projected

Actual—
FY 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

2026
(9)

50,868

51,900

52,600

53,400

54,200

54,900

55,700

56,500

57,200

1,600,855

1,659,400

1,703,800

1,743,800

1,784,000

1,824,400

1,864,900

1,905,500

1,946,300

518,744

487,200

420,400

364,600

293,200

291,700

290,300

289,000

287,700

1,082,111

1,172,200

1,283,500

1,379,200

1,490,800

1,532,700

1,574,600

1,616,500

1,658,500

317,199

316,400

315,800

315,300

315,000

314,700

314,500

314,400

314,300

73,206

53,500

23,900

0

0

0

0

0

0

243,993

262,800

291,800

315,300

315,000

314,700

314,500

314,400

314,300

239,085

232,300

232,300

232,300

232,300

232,300

232,300

232,300

232,300

Paper Form 990-EZ

108,131

95,400

69,100

45,800

0

0

0

0

0

Electronic Form 990-EZ

130,954

136,900

163,300

186,600

232,300

232,300

232,300

232,300

232,300

641,832

696,800

741,100

780,700

820,400

860,000

899,600

939,200

978,800

113,215

115,700

118,200

120,700

123,200

125,700

128,100

130,600

133,100

47,883

40,100

30,900

24,100

0

0

0

0

0

Form 990-N**
Form 990-PF, Total
Paper Form 990-PF
Electronic Form 990-PF
Form 990-T***

65,332

75,600

87,300

96,600

123,200

125,700

128,100

130,600

133,100

188,334

198,800

198,800

198,800

198,800

198,800

198,800

198,800

198,800

Form 4720

2,475

2,700

2,700

2,700

2,700

2,700

2,700

2,700

2,700

Form 5227

98,715

96,700

94,900

93,200

91,700

90,200

88,800

87,500

86,200

Form 1041-A

7,103

7,400

7,400

7,400

7,400

7,400

7,400

7,400

7,400

45,324

44,000

43,700

43,300

42,900

42,500

42,200

41,800

41,400

3,086

3,100

3,100

3,100

3,100

3,100

3,100

3,100

3,100

Form 8038-CP

10,592

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

10,600

Form 8038-G

23,250

Government Entity/Bonds
Form 8038

22,100

21,800

21,600

21,300

21,100

20,800

20,600

20,400

7,759

7,700

7,500

7,400

7,300

7,100

7,000

6,900

6,700

Form 8038-T

333

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

Form 8038-TC

125

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Form 8328

179

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

11,215

11,200

12,100

11,800

12,700

12,400

13,200

12,900

13,800

4,140

4,100

3,900

3,800

3,700

3,500

3,400

3,300

3,100

4,100

4,000

3,900

3,800

3,600

3,500

3,400

3,200

3,100

40

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Form 8871****

4,431

4,600

5,100

5,500

5,900

6,300

6,700

7,200

7,600

Form 8872, Total

2,644

2,500

3,100

2,500

3,100

2,500

3,100

2,500

3,100

Form 8038-GC

Political Organizations, Total
Form 1120-POL, Total
Paper Form 1120-POL
Electronic Form 1120-POL

Paper Form 8872
Electronic Form 8872
Excise, Total
Form 11-C
Form 720, Total
Paper Form 720
Electronic Form 720
Form 730
Form 2290, Total

100

630

500

700

200

0

0

0

0

2,014

2,000

2,400

2,300

3,100

2,500

3,100

2,500

3,100

1,038,513

1,076,900

1,094,000

1,105,000

1,116,100

1,127,100

1,138,200

1,149,300

1,160,400

0

3,360

3,500

3,400

3,200

3,100

3,000

2,900

2,700

2,600

188,183

183,900

181,800

180,000

178,200

176,500

174,700

173,000

171,300

186,797

182,300

180,200

178,200

176,300

174,500

172,600

170,800

168,900

1,386

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

22,026

20,800

20,100

19,400

18,700

18,000

17,300

16,600

15,900

817,280

851,700

868,300

882,000

895,700

909,300

923,000

936,600

950,300

Paper Form 2290

239,215

220,000

206,600

199,900

197,500

197,400

198,700

200,600

203,000

Electronic Form 2290

578,065

631,700

661,700

682,100

698,200

711,900

724,300

736,000

747,200

Form 8849, Total

7,664

17,000

20,400

20,400

20,400

20,400

20,400

20,400

20,400

Paper Form 8849

4,112

13,100

16,200

15,900

15,700

15,400

15,100

14,900

14,600

Electronic Form 8849

3,552

3,900

4,200

4,400

4,700

5,000

5,200

5,500

5,800

18,644

18,700

18,500

18,300

18,000

17,800

17,600

17,300

17,100

Excise Taxes re Employee Plans, Form 5330
Form 5500-EZ, One-Participant Retirement Plans
Payment or Refund Under Sec. 7519, Form 8752
Supplemental Documents, Total
Form 1040-X
Form 4868, Total
Paper Form 4868
Electronic Form 4868
Form 1120-X
Form 5558

101,044

101,400

101,500

101,500

101,500

101,500

101,500

101,500

101,500

25,947

24,900

24,100

23,300

22,500

21,700

21,000

20,200

19,400

28,848,818

29,382,400

29,861,700

30,308,100

30,736,700

31,050,100

31,560,800

32,064,700

32,563,100

3,543,054

3,473,500

3,404,300

3,335,100

3,265,900

3,196,800

3,127,600

3,058,400

2,989,200

16,320,210

16,495,100

16,810,400

17,094,900

17,361,400

17,512,900

17,861,700

18,203,600

18,540,000

5,548,802

4,863,400

4,318,100

3,741,900

3,147,800

2,438,600

1,926,600

1,407,900

883,700

10,771,408

11,631,700

12,492,300

13,353,000

14,213,700

15,074,400

15,935,000

16,795,700

17,656,400

12,318

12,700

12,700

12,700

12,700

12,700

12,700

12,700

12,700

515,722

538,000

555,000

572,000

589,000

605,900

622,900

639,900

656,900

7,899,559

8,276,900

8,463,000

8,647,100

8,831,200

9,015,300

9,199,400

9,383,500

9,567,600

Paper Form 7004

1,616,842

1,493,900

1,394,800

1,313,400

1,246,800

1,192,200

1,147,500

1,110,900

1,081,000

Electronic Form 7004

6,282,717

6,783,000

7,068,200

7,333,700

7,584,400

7,823,100

8,051,900

8,272,600

8,486,600

557,955

586,200

616,200

646,300

676,400

706,500

736,600

766,600

796,700

208,016

217,900

229,600

241,200

252,900

264,600

276,300

288,000

299,600

423,500

441,900

460,300

478,700

497,100

Form 7004, Total

Form 8868, Total
Paper Form 8868

Electronic Form 8868
349,939
368,300
386,700
405,100
* Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ for Fiscal Year 2018; beginning in January 2019, a new, streamlined Form 1040 replaced Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ.
** Form 990-N must be filed electronically. There is no paper form.
*** Form 990-T must be filed by paper. However, this will change starting with Tax Year 2021 when the form must be filed electronically (see Taxpayer First Act of 2019).
**** Form 8871 must be filed electronically. There is no paper form.
NOTES: Table does not contain non-master file counts. Each of the forms listed under "Type of Return" is defined in the "Table Notes" of Publication 6292.
Detail may not add to subtotal/total due to rounding.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Fall 2019 Publication 6292.

(4)

Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating Division (BOD), 2019–2026
Type of Return/BOD

Individual Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

Projected

Actual—
FY 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

151,934,683

153,588,700

155,047,200

156,516,700

157,986,200

159,455,600

160,925,100

2026
(9)

162,394,500

163,864,000

47,884,329

48,513,500

49,032,600

49,667,500

50,314,300

50,964,300

51,617,700

52,274,500

52,934,600

104,050,354

105,075,200

106,014,600

106,849,200

107,671,900

108,491,300

109,307,300

110,120,100

110,929,400

7,209,185

7,468,100

7,646,300

7,775,700

7,877,600

7,963,500

8,040,200

8,111,300

8,174,600

7,014,502

7,264,100

7,438,800

7,565,500

7,665,100

7,749,100

7,823,800

7,893,100

7,954,800

Large Business and International

183,909

192,800

196,200

198,800

201,100

203,000

204,900

206,700

208,400

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

10,774

11,100

11,300

11,300

11,400

11,400

11,400

11,500

11,500

4,239,198

4,314,800

4,410,100

4,505,300

4,600,600

4,695,800

4,791,000

4,886,300

5,114,700

Wage and Investment
Corporation Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

Partnership Returns, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

4,020,219

4,092,000

4,182,300

4,272,600

4,362,900

4,453,200

4,543,600

4,633,900

4,850,500

Large Business and International

218,541

222,400

227,400

232,300

237,200

242,100

247,000

251,900

263,700

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

438

400

500

500

500

500

500

500

500

30,891,786

31,380,600

31,657,700

31,908,200

32,140,600

32,359,300

32,569,800

32,775,300

32,977,700
29,996,000

Employment Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

28,092,902

28,540,100

28,792,400

29,020,700

29,232,400

29,431,800

29,623,900

29,811,400

Large Business and International

769,918

781,900

788,300

794,100

799,500

804,500

809,400

814,200

819,000

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

2,028,966

2,058,600

2,077,000

2,093,400

2,108,700

2,122,900

2,136,500

2,149,700

2,162,700

1,038,513

1,076,900

1,094,000

1,105,000

1,116,100

1,127,100

1,138,200

1,149,300

1,160,400

910,035

944,100

959,800

971,300

982,900

994,500

1,006,100

1,017,700

1,029,300

Large Business and International

86,390

89,700

91,000

91,100

91,200

91,400

91,500

91,600

91,700

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

42,088

43,100

43,200

42,600

41,900

41,300

40,600

40,000

39,300

1,600,855

1,659,400

1,703,800

1,743,800

1,784,000

1,824,400

1,864,900

1,905,500

1,946,300

1,600,855

1,659,400

1,703,800

1,743,800

1,784,000

1,824,400

1,864,900

1,905,500

1,946,300

916,751

936,600

950,800

964,300

977,100

989,200

1,000,800

1,011,800

1,022,300

916,751

936,600

950,800

964,300

977,100

989,200

1,000,800

1,011,800

1,022,300

Excise, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

Exempt Organization, Total
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
Employee Plans, Forms 5500, 5500EZ, and 5500SF
Tax Exempt/Government Entities

NOTES: Detail may not add to total due to rounding. See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return/BOD."
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Fall 2019 Publication 6292.

(5)

Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories—Mean Absolute Percent Error
(MAPE) and Number of Overprojections for the Four Most Recent Projection Cycles
Item

Calendar Year
2018 Actual*
(thousands)
(1)

Grand Total—Selected Returns*
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Grand Total—Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Grand Total—E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Total Primary—Selected Returns*
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Primary Total—Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Primary Total—E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total—Paper
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total—E-file
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Estimated Tax
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Fiduciary Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Partnership Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Corporation Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Employment Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Exempt Organization Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Excise Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

253,407

73,242

180,165

225,960

63,205

162,755

152,461

17,761

134,701

22,368

3,134

4,224

7,236

31,089

1,644

1,043

Projection Error on Forecasts for:
1 Year
Ahead
N=4
(2)

2 Years
Ahead
N=4
(3)

3 Years
Ahead
N=4
(4)

4 Years
Ahead
N=4
(5)

5 Years
Ahead
N=4
(6)

0.74%
3

1.20%
3

1.55%
4

1.72%
4

1.59%
4

3.45%
3

4.46%
4

5.18%
4

8.35%
4

13.52%
4

0.71%
1

1.32%
1

0.94%
1

1.78%
1

3.91%
0

0.67%
3

0.96%
4

1.59%
4

1.83%
4

1.66%
4

1.85%
3

3.03%
3

5.29%
4

8.62%
4

12.70%
4

0.50%
2

0.42%
2

0.67%
2

1.37%
1

3.11%
0

0.57%
3

0.91%
4

1.53%
4

2.24%
4

2.36%
4

1.68%
3

3.45%
2

7.94%
2

14.75%
3

23.71%
4

0.46%
2

0.93%
4

1.28%
3

1.48%
2

1.75%
2

2.47%
2

4.40%
4

7.24%
3

7.05%
3

5.91%
3

1.57%
3

3.00%
4

3.52%
3

4.45%
2

4.11%
2

0.92%
1

1.61%
1

3.64%
0

4.68%
1

4.36%
0

1.37%
2

0.73%
1

3.19%
1

5.30%
1

7.03%
2

1.13%
2

0.78%
2

1.78%
2

1.46%
2

2.34%
1

2.46%
3

3.91%
2

5.33%
4

5.48%
3

4.60%
3

0.30%
2

1.70%
2

1.60%
1

6.96%
0

9.51%
0

*Some actuals shown in this table may differ from official counts reported elsewhere because they exclude certain return series only recently projected and whose accuracy cannot yet be evaluated.
NOTE: See the "Accuracy of Prior Projections" section of this publication for an explanation of the two measures of projection accuracy.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Fall 2019 Publication 6292.

(6)

Table Notes
• Detail may not add to total due to rounding.
• Projected return counts are rounded to the nearest hundred; therefore, counts of 49 or fewer
are rounded to 0. However, some forms may report zero filings because they are associated
with only selected areas, or because their filing options were recently established or eliminated.
• Actual and projected return counts for the major categories are based on IRS Master File
processing, as recorded in the electronic versions of the Report of Returns Posted to the IRS
Master Files.
Table 1:
• “Grand Total” is the sum of “Total Primary Returns” and “Supplemental Documents.” The “Total
Primary Returns” category is the sum of all forms shown in the table, excluding “Supplemental
Documents.”
• “Individual Income Tax, Total” is the sum of paper and electronic Forms 1040, 1040-A, ­1040-EZ,
1040-NR, 1040-NR-EZ, 1040-PR, 1040-SS, and 1040-C. Beginning with Filing Year 2019,
Forms 1040, 1040-A, and 1040-EZ were replaced with a new, streamlined Form 1040.
• “Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES” includes both paper and electronic Form 1040-ES.
Various return categories, such as Form 1040-ES and other business and individual returns,
include line items to account for alternative tax-filing methods. The “paper-only” components
can be derived by subtracting the electronic counts from their respective return totals.
• “Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total” includes both paper and electronic Form 1041.
• “Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES” is the Estimated Income Tax for Estates and Trusts.
• “Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total” includes both paper and electronic Forms 1065 and
1065-B.
• “Corporation Income Tax, Total” includes Forms 1120 (paper and electronic), 1120-C, 1120-F
(paper and electronic), 1120-H, 1120-FSC, 1120-L, 1120-ND, 1120-PC, 1120-REIT, 1120-RIC,
1120-SF, and 1120-S (paper and electronic). Form 1120-POL volumes are reported separately
under the forms for “Political Organizations.” Form 1120-IC-DISC is not included in these corporation projections.
• “Form 2553” is the Election by a Small Business Corporation (to file Form 1120-S).
• “Form 1066” is the U.S. Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) Income Tax
Return.
• “Estate” includes Forms 706, 706-NA, 706-GS(D), and 706-GS(T).
• “Gift, Form 709” is the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return.
• “Employment Tax, Total” includes paper and electronic Forms 940, 940-EZ, 940-PR, 941,
941-PR, 941-SS, 943, 943-PR, 943-SS, 944, 945, and CT-1. CT-2 is excluded since the return
counts were only available on the non-master file.

(7)

• “Form 1042” is the Annual Withholding Tax Return for U.S. Source Income of Foreign Persons. This form is assigned to the International area. It is sometimes considered an employment tax return but is listed separately here.
• “Exempt Organizations, Total” includes Forms 990 (paper and electronic), 990-EZ (paper and
electronic), 990-N (only available electronically), 990-PF (paper and electronic), 990-T, 4720,
and 5227. Beginning in Tax Year 2021, the Form 990 series must be filed electronically. Temporary waivers will be available for small business filers.
• “Form 1041-A” is the U.S. Information Return, Trust Accumulation of Charitable Amounts.
• “Government Entities/Bonds” includes Forms 8038, 8038-CP, 8038-G, 8038-GC, 8038-T,
8038-TC, and 8328.
• “Political Organizations, Total” includes Forms 1120-POL (paper and electronic), 8871 (only
available electronically), and 8872 (paper and electronic). Beginning in Tax Year 2021, Form
8872 must be filed electronically. Temporary waivers will be available for small business filers.
• “Excise, Total” includes Forms 11-C, 720 (paper and electronic) 730, 2290 (paper and electronic), and 8849 (paper and electronic).
• “Form 5330” is the Return of Excise Taxes Related to Employee Benefit Plans.
• “Form 5500-EZ” is the Annual Return for One-Participant (Owners and Their Spouses) Retirement Plan.
• “Form 8752” is the Required Payment or Refund Under Section 7519.
• “Supplemental Documents” consists mainly of applications for extensions of time to file and
amended tax returns, which include Forms 1040-X, 4868 (both paper and electronic), 1120-X,
5558, 7004 (both paper and electronic), and 8868 (both paper and electronic).
Table 2:
• Individual filers classified as “Small Business/Self-Employed” reflect those taxpayers filing a
Form 1040 return with a Schedule C, Schedule F, Schedule E, and/or Form 2106 attached, or
with mailing addresses or forms considered “International.” All other individual filers are classified as “Wage and Investment.”
• In general, corporation filers (Form 1120 series returns including Form 1120-S) and partnership filers are classified as “Large Business and International” if their reported total assets are
$10 million or more. Corporation and partnership returns with assets below $10 million are
generally classified as “Small Business/Self-Employed.” However, there are also some partnership and corporation returns classified as part of the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities”
operating division.
• Nonprofit organizations, pension plan filers, tribal authorities, and governmental units comprise the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” classification.
• “Employee Plans” returns include paper and electronic Forms 5500, 5500-EZ, and 5500-SF.
Counts by operating division in this table are based primarily upon the IRS Master File “BOD
indicator.” This indicator is a single, point-in-time, taxpayer-level identifier (in contrast to a
return-by-return identifier).

(8)

Other Projection Publications
IRS Publication
Number

Typical Updates

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States

6292

Spring & Fall

Calendar Year Projections of Information and
Withholding Documents for the United States and
IRS Campuses

6961

Summer

Calendar Year Return Projections for the ­United
States and IRS Campuses

6186

Fall

Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns
by Major Processing Categories

6187

Fall

Calendar Year Return Projections by State

6149

Winter

Title

These publications are available electronically as noted inside the front cover,
or they may also be requested by:
phone at (202) 803-9106, fax at (202) 803-9154,
or writing to the following address:
Internal Revenue Service
Statistics of Income Division OS:RAAS:SOI
Attn: Chief, Servicewide Support Section
1111 Constitution Avenue, NW, K-4100
Washington, D.C. 20224

Publication 6292 (Rev. 9-2019)  Catalog Number 59069P  Department of the Treasury  Internal Revenue Service www.irs.gov/statistics