Supplemental Supporting Statement - Part B for substantive changes to ARMS II and III - Sept 16, 2020

SUPPLEMENTAL SUPPORTING STATEMENT Part B

ARMS II, ARMS III, and Vegetable Chemical Use Surveys

Substantive Change

OMB No. 0535-0218

This substantive change is being submitted as a supplemental supporting statement to the Agricultural Resource Management Surveys (ARMS) regarding the ARMS II and ARMS III surveys.

B. COLLECTION OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1. Describe (including a numerical estimate) the potential respondent universe and any sampling or other respondent selection method to be used. Data on the number of entities (e.g., establishments, State and local government units, households, or persons) in the universe covered by the collection and in the corresponding sample are to be provided in tabular form for the universe as a whole and for each of the strata in the proposed sample. Indicate expected response rates for the collection as a whole. If the collection has been conducted previously, include the actual response rate achieved during the last collection.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for social distancing, NASS field enumerators will be conducting surveys by telephone rather than by in person interviews. NASS will also be using computer assisted web interviews to collect data. With the anticipated decrease in response rates, NASS and ERS felt it would be best to postpone the ARMS II and ARMS III rice versions until 2021 and concentrate our data collection efforts on the remaining versions.

There will be no changes to the universe covered by these revised surveys. Training will be provided to the NASDA enumerators so that they can respond to any questions or concerns the respondents may have relating to these changes.

2. Describe the procedures for the collection of information including:

• statistical methodology for stratification and sample selection,

• estimation procedure,

• degree of accuracy needed for the purpose described in the justification,

• unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures

NASS will be utilizing phone enumeration and computer assisted web interviews this time for all surveys. This is in response to the need for social distancing due to the pandemic.

3. Describe methods to maximize response rates and to deal with issues of non-response. The accuracy and reliability of information collected must be shown to be adequate for intended uses. For collections based on sampling a special justification must be provided for any collection that will not yield "reliable" data that can be generalized to the universe studied.

There will be an increased usage of phone enumeration instead of personal enumeration for data collection in 2020 and 2021, due to the Coronavirus. Enumerators will be trained on the new questions to address any concerns the respondents may have, to minimize respondent burden.

4. Describe any tests of procedures or methods to be undertaken.

NASS survey methodologists conducted eight remote cognitive interviews in July for the 2020 ARMS Phase III Questionnaires. Results of the tests are in a supplemental attachment along with a supplemental listing of all the changes made to the ARMS III questionnaires for 2020.

5. Provide the name and telephone number of individuals consulted on statistical aspects of the design and the name of the agency unit, contractor(s), or other person(s) who will actually collect and/or analyze the information for the agency.

Survey design and methodology are determined by the Summary, Estimation, and Disclosure Methodology Branch, Statistics Division; Branch Chief is Jeff Bailey, (202) 690-8141.

Sample sizes for each State are determined by the Sampling, Editing, and Imputation Methodology Branch, Methods Division; Branch Chief is Mark Apodaca, (202) 690-8141.

Data collection operations are carried out by NASS Regional Field Offices; Western Field Operation’s Director is Troy Joshua, (202) 720-8220. Eastern Field Operation’s Director is Jay Johnson, (202) 720-3638.

The NASS survey statisticians in Headquarters listed below are responsible for coordination of sampling, questionnaires, data collection, and other Field Office support. Branch Chief is Gerald Tillman, (202) 720-3895; Section Head is Torey Lawrence (202) 720-5921.

September 2020

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