Crop Production - Publication

Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737

Released April 9, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season is 5.19 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous
forecast and down 4 percent from the revised 2018-2019 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
70.0 million boxes (3.15 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from last
season’s revised final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 30.0 million boxes
(1.35 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from last season’s final utilization. The
Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 40.0 million boxes (1.80 million tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast
and 3 percent below last season’s revised final utilization.
The California all orange forecast is 48.5 million boxes (1.94 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
down 6 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast, at 40.0 million boxes
(1.60 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from last season’s revised final
utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast, at 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous
forecast but down 10 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at
2.30 million boxes (98,000 tons), is down 10 percent from the previous forecast and down 8 percent from last season’s
final utilization.

This report was approved on April 9, 2020.

Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Stephen L. Censky

2

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Joseph L. Parsons

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2018-2019 and Forecasted
April 1, 2020 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2019 and 2020 ..................... 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2019 and 2020 ......................... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2019 and 2020 .................................................................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2019 and 2020 ....................................................................... 11
Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ................................................................................................................................... 12
Departure from Normal Temperature Map ........................................................................................................................... 12
March Weather Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 13
March Agricultural Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 13
Crop Comments .................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts ................................................................................................................. 15
Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

This page intentionally left blank.

4

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2018-2019 and
Forecasted April 1, 2020
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]
Crop and State

Utilized production boxes 1

Utilized production ton equivalent

2018-2019

2019-2020

2018-2019

2019-2020

(1,000 boxes)

(1,000 boxes)

(1,000 tons)

(1,000 tons)

Oranges
California, all ...........................................
Early, mid, and Navel 2 .........................
Valencia ................................................

51,400
42,000
9,400

48,500
40,000
8,500

2,056
1,680
376

1,940
1,600
340

Florida, all ...............................................
Early, mid, and Navel 2 .........................
Valencia ................................................

71,850
30,400
41,450

70,000
30,000
40,000

3,233
1,368
1,865

3,150
1,350
1,800

Texas, all ................................................
Early, mid, and Navel 2 .........................
Valencia ................................................

2,500
2,210
290

2,300
1,800
500

106
94
12

98
77
21

United States, all ....................................
Early, mid, and Navel 2 .........................
Valencia ................................................

125,750
74,610
51,140

120,800
71,800
49,000

5,395
3,142
2,253

5,188
3,027
2,161

Grapefruit
California ................................................
Florida, all ...............................................
Red .......................................................
White ....................................................
Texas .....................................................

4,100
4,510
3,740
770
6,100

4,300
5,200
4,300
900
5,800

164
192
159
33
244

172
221
183
38
232

United States ..........................................

14,710

15,300

600

625

Tangerines and mandarins 3
California ................................................
Florida ....................................................

26,500
990

23,000
1,050

1,060
47

920
50

United States ..........................................

27,490

24,050

1,107

970

Lemons
Arizona ...................................................
California ................................................

1,350
23,700

1,900
21,000

54
948

76
840

United States ..........................................

25,050

22,900

1,002

916

1

Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in
California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2
Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas.
3
Includes tangelos and tangors.

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States:
2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Area planted

Area harvested

2019

2020

2019

2020

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

(1,000 acres)

Grains and hay
Barley .....................................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ........................................................................
Corn for silage ........................................................................
Hay, all ....................................................................................
Alfalfa ..................................................................................
All other ...............................................................................
Oats ........................................................................................
Proso millet .............................................................................
Rice ........................................................................................
Rye .........................................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 .................................................................
Sorghum for silage ..................................................................
Wheat, all ................................................................................
Winter .................................................................................
Durum .................................................................................
Other spring ........................................................................

2,721
89,700
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
2,810
506
2,540
1,865
5,265
(NA)
45,158
31,159
1,339
12,660

2,921
96,990

Oilseeds
Canola ....................................................................................
Cottonseed .............................................................................
Flaxseed .................................................................................
Mustard seed ..........................................................................
Peanuts ..................................................................................
Rapeseed ...............................................................................
Safflower .................................................................................
Soybeans for beans ................................................................
Sunflower ................................................................................

2,040.0
(X)
374
98.0
1,427.7
11.3
165.8
76,100
1,350.6

1,989.0

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all ...............................................................................
Upland ................................................................................
American Pima ....................................................................
Sugarbeets .............................................................................
Sugarcane ..............................................................................
Tobacco ..................................................................................

13,737.8
13,508.0
229.8
1,132.0
(NA)
(NA)

13,703.0
13,475.0
228.0
1,138.5
(NA)

11,804.5
11,580.0
224.5
979.3
913.2
227.1

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ...............................................................................
Dry edible beans .....................................................................
Dry edible peas .......................................................................
Lentils .....................................................................................

451.4
1,287.4
1,103.0
486.0

306.0
1,372.0
971.0
474.0

404.0
1,176.5
1,052.0
431.0

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops .......................................................................................
Maple syrup ............................................................................
Mushrooms .............................................................................
Peppermint oil .........................................................................
Potatoes .................................................................................
Spearmint oil ...........................................................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
968.3
(NA)

See footnote(s) at end of table.

6

(NA)

3,012
2,847
5,820
44,655
30,775
1,290
12,590

270
1,529.0

83,510
1,558.0

2,182
81,482
6,587
52,425
16,743
35,682
826
465
2,472
310
4,675
339
37,162
24,327
1,175
11,660

53,283

1,910.0
(X)
319
90.0
1,391.7
10.4
152.7
75,021
1,244.5

201.8

56.5
(NA)
(NA)
52.4
942.2
18.5
--continued

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States:
2019 and 2020 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Yield per acre
2019

Production
2020

2019

2020

(1,000)

(1,000)

Grains and hay
Barley ......................................................................... bushels
Corn for grain .............................................................. bushels
Corn for silage ..................................................................tons
Hay, all .............................................................................tons
Alfalfa ...........................................................................tons
All other ........................................................................tons
Oats ............................................................................ bushels
Proso millet ................................................................. bushels
Rice 2 ................................................................................. cwt
Rye ............................................................................. bushels
Sorghum for grain ....................................................... bushels
Sorghum for silage ............................................................tons
Wheat, all ................................................................... bushels
Winter ..................................................................... bushels
Durum ..................................................................... bushels
Other spring ............................................................ bushels

77.7
168.0
20.2
2.46
3.28
2.07
64.3
35.7
7,471
34.3
73.0
11.9
51.7
53.6
45.7
48.2

169,566
13,691,561
132,807
128,864
54,875
73,989
53,148
16,608
184,675
10,622
341,460
4,019
1,920,139
1,304,003
53,756
562,380

Oilseeds
Canola ......................................................................... pounds
Cottonseed .......................................................................tons
Flaxseed ..................................................................... bushels
Mustard seed ............................................................... pounds
Peanuts ....................................................................... pounds
Rapeseed .................................................................... pounds
Safflower ..................................................................... pounds
Soybeans for beans .................................................... bushels
Sunflower .................................................................... pounds

1,781
(X)
20.0
706
3,949
2,160
1,272
47.4
1,562

3,402,000
6,232.0
6,395
63,580
5,496,087
22,464
194,295
3,558,281
1,943,435

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 ..................................................................... bales
Upland 2 ...................................................................... bales
American Pima 2 ......................................................... bales
Sugarbeets .......................................................................tons
Sugarcane ........................................................................tons
Tobacco ....................................................................... pounds

817
803
1,544
29.2
35.0
2,060

20,102.0
19,380.0
722.0
28,600
31,937
467,956

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas 2 ....................................................................... cwt
Dry edible beans 2 ............................................................. cwt
Dry edible peas 2 ............................................................... cwt
Lentils 2 .............................................................................. cwt

1,544
1,769
2,124
1,250

6,237
20,811
22,346
5,388

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops ............................................................................ pounds
Maple syrup ................................................................. gallons
Mushrooms .................................................................. pounds
Peppermint oil .............................................................. pounds
Potatoes ............................................................................ cwt
Spearmint oil ............................................................... pounds

1,981
(NA)
(NA)
104
449
130

112,041.2
4,240
846,491
5,452
422,890
2,413

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Yield in pounds.

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

7

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States:
2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Area planted

Area harvested

2019

2020

2019

2020

(hectares)

(hectares)

(hectares)

(hectares)

Grains and hay
Barley ........................................................................
Corn for grain 1 ...........................................................
Corn for silage ...........................................................
Hay, all 2 ....................................................................
Alfalfa .....................................................................
All other ..................................................................
Oats ...........................................................................
Proso millet ................................................................
Rice ...........................................................................
Rye ............................................................................
Sorghum for grain 1 ....................................................
Sorghum for silage .....................................................
Wheat, all 2 ................................................................
Winter ....................................................................
Durum ....................................................................
Other spring ...........................................................

1,101,160
36,300,690
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,137,180
204,770
1,027,910
754,750
2,130,690
(NA)
18,274,990
12,609,740
541,880
5,123,380

1,182,100
39,250,880

Oilseeds
Canola .......................................................................
Cottonseed ................................................................
Flaxseed ....................................................................
Mustard seed .............................................................
Peanuts .....................................................................
Rapeseed ..................................................................
Safflower ....................................................................
Soybeans for beans ...................................................
Sunflower ...................................................................

825,570
(X)
151,350
39,660
577,780
4,570
67,100
30,796,910
546,570

804,930

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 ................................................................
Upland ...................................................................
American Pima .......................................................
Sugarbeets ................................................................
Sugarcane .................................................................
Tobacco .....................................................................

5,559,550
5,466,550
93,000
458,110
(NA)
(NA)

5,545,470
5,453,200
92,270
460,740
(NA)

4,777,160
4,686,310
90,850
396,310
369,560
91,910

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ..................................................................
Dry edible beans ........................................................
Dry edible peas ..........................................................
Lentils ........................................................................

182,680
521,000
446,370
196,680

123,840
555,230
392,950
191,820

163,490
476,120
425,730
174,420

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops ..........................................................................
Maple syrup ...............................................................
Mushrooms ................................................................
Peppermint oil ............................................................
Potatoes ....................................................................
Spearmint oil ..............................................................

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
391,860
(NA)

See footnote(s) at end of table.

8

(NA)

1,218,930
1,152,150
2,355,300
18,071,430
12,454,330
522,050
5,095,050

109,270
618,770

33,795,660
630,510

883,030
32,974,950
2,665,690
21,215,870
6,775,720
14,440,150
334,270
188,180
1,000,390
125,450
1,891,930
137,190
15,039,090
9,844,890
475,510
4,718,690

21,563,100

772,960
(X)
129,100
36,420
563,210
4,210
61,800
30,360,250
503,640

81,670

22,880
(NA)
(NA)
21,210
381,300
7,490
--continued

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States:
2019 and 2020 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Yield per hectare

Production

2019

2020

2019

2020

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

Grains and hay
Barley .....................................................................................
Corn for grain ..........................................................................
Corn for silage ........................................................................
Hay, all 2 .................................................................................
Alfalfa .................................................................................
All other ..............................................................................
Oats ........................................................................................
Proso millet .............................................................................
Rice ........................................................................................
Rye .........................................................................................
Sorghum for grain ...................................................................
Sorghum for silage ..................................................................
Wheat, all 2 .............................................................................
Winter .................................................................................
Durum .................................................................................
Other spring ........................................................................

4.18
10.55
45.20
5.51
7.35
4.65
2.31
2.00
8.37
2.15
4.58
26.58
3.47
3.60
3.08
3.24

3,691,860
347,781,670
120,480,480
116,903,450
49,781,760
67,121,690
771,440
376,660
8,376,720
269,810
8,673,480
3,645,980
52,257,620
35,489,150
1,463,000
15,305,480

Oilseeds
Canola ....................................................................................
Cottonseed .............................................................................
Flaxseed .................................................................................
Mustard seed ..........................................................................
Peanuts ..................................................................................
Rapeseed ...............................................................................
Safflower ................................................................................
Soybeans for beans ................................................................
Sunflower ...............................................................................

2.00
(X)
1.26
0.79
4.43
2.42
1.43
3.19
1.75

1,543,120
5,653,580
162,440
28,840
2,492,980
10,190
88,130
96,840,540
881,530

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops
Cotton, all 2 .............................................................................
Upland ................................................................................
American Pima ...................................................................
Sugarbeets .............................................................................
Sugarcane ..............................................................................
Tobacco ..................................................................................

0.92
0.90
1.73
65.47
78.40
2.31

4,376,690
4,219,500
157,200
25,945,480
28,972,760
212,260

Dry beans, peas, and lentils
Chickpeas ...............................................................................
Dry edible beans .....................................................................
Dry edible peas .......................................................................
Lentils .....................................................................................

1.73
1.98
2.38
1.40

282,910
943,970
1,013,600
244,400

Potatoes and miscellaneous
Hops .......................................................................................
Maple syrup ............................................................................
Mushrooms .............................................................................
Peppermint oil .........................................................................
Potatoes .................................................................................
Spearmint oil ..........................................................................

2.22
(NA)
(NA)
0.12
50.31
0.15

50,820
21,200
383,960
2,470
19,181,970
1,090

(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1
Area planted for all purposes.
2
Total may not add due to rounding.

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

9

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop
Citrus 1
Grapefruit .............................................................................................. 1,000 tons
Lemons ................................................................................................. 1,000 tons
Oranges ................................................................................................ 1,000 tons
Tangerines and mandarins .................................................................... 1,000 tons
Noncitrus
Apples, commercial ......................................................................... million pounds
Apricots .......................................................................................................... tons
Avocados ....................................................................................................... tons
Blueberries, Cultivated ..................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) ................................................................. 1,000 pounds
Cherries, Sweet ............................................................................................. tons
Cherries, Tart .................................................................................. million pounds
Coffee (Hawaii) ................................................................................ 1,000 pounds
Cranberries .................................................................................................. barrel
Dates ............................................................................................................. tons
Grapes ........................................................................................................... tons
Kiwifruit (California) ........................................................................................ tons
Nectarines (California) ................................................................................... tons
Olives (California) .......................................................................................... tons
Papayas (Hawaii) ............................................................................. 1,000 pounds
Peaches ......................................................................................................... tons
Pears ............................................................................................................. tons
Plums (California) .......................................................................................... tons
Prunes (California) ......................................................................................... tons
Raspberries, all ............................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Strawberries ........................................................................................... 1,000 cwt
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ........................................................... 1,000 pounds
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ........................................................................... tons
Macadamias (Hawaii) ....................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Pecans, in-shell ................................................................................ 1,000 pounds
Pistachios (California) ...................................................................... 1,000 pounds
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .......................................................................... tons
1

Production
2019

2020
600
1,002
5,395
1,107

625
916
5,188
970

10,630.0
64,500

362,000
290.2
26,430
9,040,000

7,500,000

733,500
805,000
110,000

2,200,000
49,000
264,500
630,000

Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.

10

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2019 and 2020
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2020 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2019-2020 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Crop

Citrus 1
Grapefruit .............................................................................................................
Lemons ................................................................................................................
Oranges ................................................................................................................
Tangerines and mandarins ...................................................................................
Noncitrus
Apples, commercial ..............................................................................................
Apricots ................................................................................................................
Avocados ..............................................................................................................
Blueberries, Cultivated ..........................................................................................
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) ......................................................................................
Cherries, Sweet ....................................................................................................
Cherries, Tart ........................................................................................................
Coffee (Hawaii) .....................................................................................................
Cranberries ...........................................................................................................
Dates ....................................................................................................................
Grapes .................................................................................................................
Kiwifruit (California) ...............................................................................................
Nectarines (California) ..........................................................................................
Olives (California) .................................................................................................
Papayas (Hawaii) .................................................................................................
Peaches ...............................................................................................................
Pears ....................................................................................................................
Plums (California) .................................................................................................
Prunes (California) ................................................................................................
Raspberries, all .....................................................................................................
Strawberries .........................................................................................................
Nuts and miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled (California) ................................................................................
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .................................................................................
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........................................................................................
Pecans, in-shell ....................................................................................................
Pistachios (California) ...........................................................................................
Walnuts, in-shell (California) .................................................................................
1

Production
2019

2020

(metric tons)

(metric tons)

544,310
909,000
4,894,260
1,004,250

566,990
830,980
4,706,470
879,970

4,821,690
58,510

328,400
131,630
11,990
410,050

6,803,890

665,420
730,280
99,790

997,900
44,450
119,980
571,530

Production years are 2018-2019 and 2019-2020.

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

11

12

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

March Weather Summary
A wet March in California’s key watershed areas dented seasonal precipitation deficits and improved the average water
equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack from 10 to 15 inches, according to the California Department of Water
Resources. However, the 15-inch equivalency on April 1, the traditional peak snowpack date, was barely one-half of
normal.
Pockets of dryness and drought existed in other areas of the West, including the Four Corners region, the Great Basin, and
the Pacific Northwest (excluding western Washington). In contrast, March was a very wet month across the southern tier
of the West, stretching from southern California to southern New Mexico.
Meanwhile, drought intensified during March along and near the Gulf Coast, including Florida, amid summer-like heat
and near-record to record-setting dryness. No measurable rain fell during the month in Florida locations such as Tampa
and Lakeland. By March 29, Florida’s topsoil moisture was rated 65 percent very short to short, up from 20 percent just
4 weeks earlier. Although the dryness favored planting operations, there was little moisture for germination and
establishment. In Texas, 56 percent of the intended rice acreage had been planted by March 29, compared to the 5-year
average of 25 percent. While drought worsened in coastal Texas, interior sections of southern Texas received
much-needed rain.
Many other parts of the country, including the southern Plains and interior South, experienced a wet month, hampering
spring fieldwork. By late March, topsoil moisture in Tennessee was rated 60 percent surplus. Early-spring precipitation
also plagued much of the Midwest, maintaining soggy conditions in fields and feedlots. Late-March topsoil moisture was
rated at least one-half surplus in several Midwestern States, including Ohio (72 percent), Illinois (56 percent), Missouri
(56 percent), Indiana (53 percent), and Michigan (50 percent).
Farther west, conditions remained mostly favorable on the Plains, where all major winter wheat-production states reported
at least one-half of the winter wheat rated in good to excellent condition by late March. Still, pockets of drought on the
High Plains adversely affected a portion of the crop, with 27 percent of Colorado’s winter wheat rated very poor to poor.
In North Dakota, the corn harvest was 75 percent complete by the end of March, although a mild, mostly dry month
allowed for orderly melting of snow that had been on the ground in the eastern part of the state since Thanksgiving.
In fact, warmer-than-normal March weather dominated areas from the Plains to the East Coast, with temperatures
averaging at least 5°F above normal across much of the southern and eastern United States. Conversely, cooler-thannormal conditions covered the West, particularly across southern California and the Desert Southwest.
March Agricultural Summary
March was warmer than normal for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Temperatures averaged 5°F or more above
normal for most of the South and much of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Much of the Gulf Coast saw temperatures 8°F or
more above normal for the month of March. In contrast, much of the western half of the Nation saw below average
temperatures for the month of March. In parts of California and Montana temperatures averaged 5°F or more below
normal.
During the month of March, much of the Midwest, the South, the Southwest, and Texas, received higher than average
precipitation. Much of the South received 6 inches of rain or more. In contrast, Florida, the Gulf Coast Region, and parts
of the Northwest and Upper Midwest saw drier than normal conditions, with most of Florida and the Gulf Coast receiving
little or no rain in March.
In Kansas, 43 percent of the winter wheat acreage was rated in good to excellent condition on March 1, but improved
during the month with 50 percent rated in good to excellent condition on March 29. In Texas, 36 percent of the acreage
was rated in good to excellent condition on March 1, but improved during the month with 56 percent of the acreage rated
in good to excellent condition on March 29.

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

13

In Arizona and Texas, 19 percent and 29 percent of pasture and rangeland was rated in very poor to poor condition,
respectively on March 1. On March 29, Arizona had 20 percent of pasture and rangeland rated very poor to poor. In
Texas, conditions had improved with 22 percent of pasture and rangeland rated in very poor to poor condition.
In Florida, March temperatures were on average 1 to 10 degrees warmer than historical values. Total rainfall for the
month ranged from no rain in multiple locations to 3.7 inches in Leon County. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor,
the State went from 39.5 percent experiencing abnormally dry conditions at the beginning of March to 88.5 percent by the
end of the month. Pasture conditions steadily declined throughout the month due to the dry soil and the increasing
temperatures. Cattle conditions remained mostly good. Sugarcane harvest was ongoing. Pest and disease pressures were
reported on strawberries and tomatoes throughout the month. Citrus fruit harvested for the fresh market included white
and red grapefruit, Valencia oranges, as well as Honey, Tango, and Royal tangerines. Citrus grove activities were normal
for this time of year, which included mowing before harvest, fertilizing, hedging, topping, and irrigation.
Crop Comments
Grapefruit: The United States 2019-2020 grapefruit crop is forecast at 625,000 tons, down 2 percent from the previous
forecast but up 4 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. In Texas, expected production, at 5.80 million boxes
(232,000 tons), is down 6 percent from the previous forecast and down 5 percent from last year.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 970,000 tons, up 4 percent
from the previous forecast but down 12 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. The California tangerine and
mandarin forecast, at 23.0 million boxes (920,000 ton), is up 5 percent from the previous forecast but down 13 percent
from last year’s revised total.
Lemons: The 2019-2020 United States lemon crop is forecast at 916,000 tons, up 12 percent from previous forecast but
down 9 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. The California production forecast, at 21.0 million boxes
(840,000 tons), is up 11 percent from last month but down 11 percent from the revised 2018-2019 season total.

14

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and
September of last year, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent
months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous
components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly
basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for
Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current
situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare
the published April 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These
three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the
survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month
throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information
from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home
use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error,"
a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and
the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error."
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final
end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. However, if you exclude the four
abnormal production years (three hurricane seasons), the “Root Mean Square Error” is 3.2 percent. This means chances
are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than
3.0 percent, or 3.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 5.2 percent, or 5.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 155,000 tons
(174,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 0 to 502,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The April 1 forecast
for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times, above 11 times, and equal once (below 6 times, above 10 times, and
equal once excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecast this year is likely to
understate or overstate final production.
Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]

Crop

Root mean
square error

(percent)
Oranges 1 ................................................ tons
Oranges 1 2 .......................................... tons
1
2

(percent)
3.0
3.2

Difference between forecast
and final estimate

90 percent
confidence
interval

5.2
5.6

Production
Average

Smallest

(millions)

(millions)

155
174

0
0

Years
Largest

Below
final

Above
final

(millions)

(number)

(number)

502
502

8
6

11
10

Quantity is in thousands of units.
Excluding freeze and hurricane seasons.

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch ....................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section ......................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
David Colwell – Current Agricultural Industrial Reports ................................................................ (202) 720-8800
Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet .............................................................................. (202) 720-2127
James Johanson – County Estimates, Hay ....................................................................................... (202) 690-8533
Jeff Lemmons – Oats, Soybeans ...................................................................................................... (202) 690-3234
Irwin Anolik – Crop Weather........................................................................................................... (202) 720-7621
Chris Hawthorn – Peanuts, Rice....................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Jean Porter – Rye, Wheat ................................................................................................................. (202) 720-8068
Chris Singh – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum ........................................................................... (202) 720-5944
Travis Thorson – Barley, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds ...................................................................... (202) 720-7369
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section ............................................ (202) 720-2127
Joshua Bates – Almonds, Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco ........................................................................................ (202) 720-4288
Fleming Gibson – Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Macadamia,
Mandarins and tangerines, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges ......................................................... (202) 720-5412
Greg Lemmons – Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes,
Tame Blueberries, Wild Blueberries.......................................................................................... (202) 720-4285
Dan Norris – Artichokes, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Lentils,
Nectarines, Papayas, Peaches, Snap Beans, Spinach, Walnuts, Watermelons ........................... (202) 720-3250
Krishna Rizal – Dry Beans, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Honeydews, Kiwifruit, Lettuce,
Maple Syrup, Mint, Pears, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Tomatoes ....................................... (202) 720-2157
Dawn Smoker – Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas,
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans ........................................................ (202) 720-4215

16

Crop Production (April 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:
 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov
 Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free
subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on “National” or “State” in upper right corner above “search”
box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive.
 Cornell’s Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS’s and other agency’s archived reports. The
new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new
website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the
new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or
subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist [email protected] in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540,
7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: [email protected].
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for
employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where
applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program
or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or
employment activities.)
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination
Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or
at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the
information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax
(202) 690-7442 or email at [email protected].

USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
1:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. EDT

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will hold a virtual meeting for users of U.S. domestic and
international agriculture data. NASS is organizing the 2020 Data Users’ Meeting in cooperation with five other
USDA agencies – Agricultural Marketing Service, Economic Research Service, Farm Service Agency, Foreign
Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board – and the Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade
Division. Agency representatives will provide updates on recent and pending changes in statistical and
information programs important to agriculture, answer questions, and welcome comments and input from data
users.
For registration details or additional information about the Data Users’ Meeting, see the meeting page on the
NASS website (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/index.php). Contact Vernita
Murray (NASS) at 202-690-8141 or [email protected] or Patricia Snipe (NASS) at 202-720-2248 or
[email protected] for information.