Final Pulication 6292

STATISTICS OF INCOME DIVISION
RESEARCH, APPLIED ANALYTICS, AND STATISTICS

Publication 6292

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States: 2020–2027

Fall 2020

Projections

of Federal Tax Return Filings

w w w.i r s.g ov/st at i st i c s
Publication 6292 (Rev. 9-2020)

Catalog Number 59069P Department of the Treasury

Internal Revenue Service

www.irs.gov/statistics

Publication 6292 (revised 9-2020) is a product of the IRS Statistics of Income Division
within the Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics organization.

Department of the Treasury
Internal Revenue Service
Charles P. Rettig
Commissioner
-HႇUH\-7ULELDQR
Deputy Commissioner for Operations Support
Barry W. Johnson
$FWLQJ&KLHI5HVHDUFKDQG$QDO\WLFV2ႈFHU
Barry W. Johnson
Director, Statistics of Income Division
Laura R. Rasmussen
Chief, Statistical Services Branch
Timothy S. Castle
Chief, Servicewide Support Section

Fiscal Year Return
Projections for
the United States:
2020–2027

Publication 6292
Fall 2020

Suggested Citation
Internal Revenue Service
Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics
Statistics of Income Division
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States
Publication 6292 (Rev. 9-2020)
Washington, D.C. 20224

Table of Contents
(Fall 2020)
Principal Contacts...................................................................................................................... iii
Online Availability of Forecasts.................................................................................................. iii
Overview.....................................................................................................................................1
Data Sources and Projections Methodology ..............................................................................1
Summary of 6LJQL¿FDQW7UHQGV...................................................................................................2
Accuracy of Prior Projections .....................................................................................................2
Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns
To Be Filed with IRS, 2020–2027 ................................................................................4
Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by
Business Operating Division (BOD), 2020–2027.........................................................6
Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major
Return Categories........................................................................................................7
Table Notes.................................................................................................................................8
Projection Publication Series ...........................................................................Inside Back Cover

(ii)

Principal Contacts
Questions or comments regarding these return forecasts, or related matters, can be directed to
WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJVWDႇPHPEHUOLVWHGEHORZ
Business Returns

-Hႇ0DWVXR
0LFKHOOH&KX
Yan K. Liu

(202) 803-9363
(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9357

Individual Returns (Estimated Tax,
Extensions, and Amended)

0LFKHOOH&KX
Andre Palmer
Gordon Akudibillah
Derrick Dennis
Andy J. Roche

(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9368
(202) 803-9782
(202) 803-9337
(202) 803-9334

Other Comments or Questions

Andre Palmer
0LFKHOOH&KX

(202) 803-9368
(202) 803-9369

Online Availability of Forecasts
Forecasts from the most recent edition of this publication may be found on the IRS Internet site.
The World Wide Web address is: www.irs.gov/statistics. From the Website, select “All Topics” in
the “Products, Publications & Papers” section.

We thank our customers for their support as we continually seek to improve our products and
services wherever possible. We welcome customer feedback at any time. Comments and
suggestions regarding this publication can be directed to Timothy Castle, Chief, Servicewide
Support Section, at (202) 803-9106.

Barry W. Johnson
Director, Statistics of Income Division

(iii)

Overview
The Fall 2020 edition of IRS Publication 6292, Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
StatesSURYLGHV86OHYHOSURMHFWLRQVRIWKHQXPEHURIWD[UHWXUQVH[SHFWHGWREH¿OHGLQ)LVFDO
Year (FY) 2020 through FY 2027 by: (1) major return categories; and (2) business operating
divisions.
6WDWLVWLFVRI,QFRPH62,VWDႇZLWKLQWKH,565HVHDUFK$SSOLHG$QDO\WLFVDQG6WDWLVWLFV5$$6
RUJDQL]DWLRQSUHSDUHWKHVHSURMHFWLRQVVHPLDQQXDOO\WRLQFRUSRUDWHFKDQJHVLQ¿OLQJSDWWHUQV
economic and demographic trends, legislative requirements, and IRS administrative processes.

'DWD6RXUFHVDQG3URMHFWLRQV0HWKRGRORJ\
IRS Data Sources
7R GHYHORS SURMHFWLRQV IRU )<  WKURXJK )<  62, VWDႇ UHOLHG RQ GDWD IURP WKH ,56
Master File, which reports the historical number of returns processed and recorded each year.
,QFDVHVZKHUHPDVWHU¿OHUHWXUQFRXQWVZHUHQRWDYDLODEOH62,VWDႇUHOLHGRQGDWDSURYLGHGE\
SURJUDPVWDႇLQWKH,56RSHUDWLQJGLYLVLRQV
General Projections Methodology
62,VWDႇFRPSXWHGWKHSURMHFWLRQVSUHVHQWHGKHUHIRUWKHFDOHQGDU\HDURI¿OLQJDQGWKHQFRQYHUWHGWKHPWRWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ¿VFDO\HDUEDVHGRQWKHKLVWRULFDOTXDUWHUO\¿OLQJH[SHULHQFH
)RUVRPHLQGLYLGXDOUHWXUQVHULHV62,VWDႇFRPSXWHGWKHSURMHFWLRQVEDVHGRQTXDUWHUO\KLVWRULFDOGDWDDQGWKHQGHULYHGWKH¿VFDO\HDUSURMHFWLRQVE\DGGLQJWKHUHOHYDQWIRXUTXDUWHUV
The projections are derived from various statistical models that capture and extrapolate historiFDO¿OLQJWUHQGVE\XQLTXHIRUPW\SHVDQG¿OLQJPHGLXPV0RVWRIWKHPRGHOVXVHWLPHVHULHV
extrapolation methods, such as trended exponential smoothing. However, the projections for
some return types are based on regression models that used the August 2020 economic and
demographic variables provided by IHS Markit as key input factors. Additionally, where historical
GDWDZHUHOLPLWHGRUQRQH[LVWHQWVXFKDVIRUQHZH¿OHSURGXFWVWKH¿OLQJSDWWHUQIRUDFRPSDrable return type was applied.
Adjustments Related to COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Uncertainties
62,VWDႇSHUIRUPHGDQH[WHQVLYHUHVHDUFKRI86ODZVDQGWKH,56DGPLQLVWUDWLYHSURFHVVHV
WKDWZLOOLPSDFWWKH)<WR)<WD[UHWXUQYROXPHV7KHVWDႇ¶VELJJHVWFKDOOHQJHVIRUWKLV
publication were determining how to deal with the tax provisions of the CARES Act of 2020 (e.g.,
WKHHႇHFWRI5HFRYHU\5HEDWH&UHGLWVRQ¿OHUEHKDYLRUDQGKRZWRKDQGOHWKHH[WHQVLRQRIWKH
$SULOWD[¿OLQJDQGSD\PHQWGHDGOLQHGXHWRWKH&29,'SDQGHPLF
62,VWDႇLQFRUSRUDWHGVRPHRႇPRGHODGMXVWPHQWVXVLQJWKHLQIRUPDWLRQJDWKHUHGIURPWKHLUUHVHDUFKHႇRUWV)RUH[DPSOHVWDႇDGMXVWHGWKHPRGHOHGLQGLYLGXDOWD[UHWXUQYROXPHVWRDFFRXQW
IRUWKRVHWD[SD\HUVZKRWUDGLWLRQDOO\DUHQRWUHTXLUHGWR¿OHDUHWXUQEXWZKRZLOO¿OHVROHO\WR
UHFHLYHWKH5HFRYHU\5HEDWH&UHGLW7KLVDGMXVWPHQWZDVJXLGHGLQSDUWE\WKH¿OHUEHKDYLRU
patterns during the 2008 stimulus package (the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008).
Nevertheless, the FY 2020 to FY 2027 projections presented in this publication are valid as of
early-August 2020.
(1)

New Electronic Filing Option for Form 1040-X
On May 28, 2020, the IRS announced that taxpayers can submit an Amended U.S. Individual
Income Tax Return)RUP;HOHFWURQLFDOO\XVLQJFRPPHUFLDOWD[¿OLQJVRIWZDUHEHJLQQLQJ
$XJXVW$VH¿OLQJKDVJURZQLQWKHSDVW\HDUVWKH)RUP;ZDVRQHRIWKHODVW
PDMRULQGLYLGXDOWD[IRUPVWKDWZDVUHTXLUHGWREH¿OHGRQSDSHU
7RGHYHORSWKHLQLWLDOIRUHFDVWVIRUWKHQHZHOHFWURQLF¿OLQJRSWLRQIRU)RUP;62,VWDႇUHVHDUFKHGSDVWVFHQDULRVDQGWD[SD\HU¿OLQJEHKDYLRUSDWWHUQVIROORZLQJWKH,56ODXQFKRIDQHZ
H¿OHRSWLRQIRURWKHU,56IRUPV7KHEHKDYLRUREVHUYHGDQGWKHQXPEHURIUHWXUQVVXEPLWWHG
HOHFWURQLFDOO\ZKHQSDVWH¿OHRSWLRQV¿UVWEHFDPHDYDLODEOHLVUHÀHFWHGLQWKHHOHFWURQLF)RUP
; SURMHFWLRQV LQ WKH VKRUW WHUP ZKLFK DFFRXQWV IRU D VWDQGDUG GLႇXVLRQ FXUYH$OWHUQDWLYHO\WKHYROXPHRIHOHFWURQLFDOO\¿OHG;IRUPVLQWKHORQJUXQGHSHQGVRQWKHWD[SD\HUVZKR¿OHDPHQGHGUHWXUQVDQGWKHXSGDWHVWRWKHDFWXDOUHSRUWVHႇHFWLYHO\WUDQVLWLRQLQJWKLV
methodology closer to forecasting within the trend model moving forward.

6XPPDU\RI6LJQL¿FDQW7UHQGV
A summary of the major trends for this edition of Publication 6292 are noted below:
Trends in the Grand Total Return Filings
$VSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHJUDQGWRWDOUHWXUQ¿OLQJVZHUHPLOOLRQLQ)<DQLQFUHDVHRI
SHUFHQWRYHU)<$IWHU)<JUDQGWRWDOUHWXUQ¿OLQJVDUHSURMHFWHGWRJURZDWDQ
average annual rate of 1.0 percent, reaching 276.1 million by FY 2027. The paper grand total
UHWXUQ¿OLQJVZHUHPLOOLRQLQ)<DGHFUHDVHRISHUFHQWIURPWKH)<WRWDO7KH
HOHFWURQLFJUDQGWRWDOUHWXUQ¿OLQJVZHUHPLOOLRQLQ)<DQLQFUHDVHRISHUFHQWRYHU
)<$IWHU)<HOHFWURQLFJUDQGWRWDOUHWXUQ¿OLQJVDUHSURMHFWHGWRJURZDWDQDYHUDJH
annual rate of 2.3 percent.
Detail by Business Operating Division
7DEOHSUHVHQWVHVWLPDWHVRIVHOHFWHGUHWXUQ¿OLQJVE\,56%XVLQHVV2SHUDWLQJ'LYLVLRQ%2'
The selected returns include total individual income tax returns, corporation income tax returns,
partnership returns, employment returns, excise returns, and exempt organization returns. As
applicable, these volumes are broken out by their operating division components: Wage and
Investment (W&I), Small Business/Self-Employed (SB/SE), Large Business and International
(LB&I), and Tax Exempt/Government Entities (TE/GE). Also included are the projected total
¿OLQJVRIHPSOR\HHSODQ(3UHWXUQVLQFOXGLQJWKRVHSURFHVVHGE\WKH'HSDUWPHQWRI/DERU
ZKLFKFRPSULVHPDMRUUHWXUQ¿OLQJVE\WD[SD\HUVVHUYHGE\WKH7(*(RSHUDWLQJGLYLVLRQ

Accuracy of Prior Projections
To measure the quality of our products and services, this section, along with Table 3, provides
a brief analysis of the accuracy of prior projections. Using 4 years of actual data, from 2016
through 2019, Table 3 presents the accuracy of our national-level projections by major return
categories. This analysis covers only the major return categories projected on a calendar-year
basis and serves as a general measure for approximating the overall reliability of our U.S.-level
return projections.

(2)

The table presents two measures of projection accuracy: (1) the mean absolute percent error (MAPE);
and (2) the number of overprojections. The MAPE is computed as the average percentage projection
HUURUIRUWKH\HDUSHULRGUHJDUGOHVVRIZKHWKHUWKHSURMHFWLRQVZHUHRYHURUXQGHUWKHDFWXDO¿OLQJVLQ
each of the four projection cycles. In addition, the number of overprojections can show whether projections are consistently over- or underprojected. A value of “2” indicates balanced forecasts over the four
cycles.
The table groups these two measures by time horizon. The time horizon is determined based on the
year a forecast was made and the year projected. For example, a forecast for 2018 made in 2015 would
be part of the “3-years-ahead” time horizon.

(3)

7DEOH)LVFDOFile Typeapplication/pdfFile TitlePublication 6292 (Rev. 9-2020)SubjectFiscal Year Return Projections for the United States: 2020-2027, Fall 2020AuthorOS:RAAS:SOIFile Modified2020-12-25File Created2020-12-25