Milk Production - Release

Milk Production
ISSN: 1949-

Released December 17, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

November Milk Production up 3.1 Percent
Milk production in the 24 major States during November totaled 17.2 billion pounds, up 3.1 percent from November
2019. October revised production, at 17.7 billion pounds, was up 2.5 percent from October 2019. The October revision
represented a decrease of 7 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.
Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,935 pounds for November, 41 pounds above November 2019.
The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.90 million head, 82,000 head more than November
2019, and 13,000 head more than October 2020.

November Milk Production in the United States up 3.0 Percent
Milk production in the United States during November totaled 18.0 billion pounds, up 3.0 percent from November 2019.
Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,916 pounds for November, 43 pounds above November 2019.
The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.41 million head, 62,000 head more than November 2019,
and 12,000 head more than October 2020.

Monthly Milk Production - 24 Selected States
Million pounds

18,500
18,000
17,500
17,000
16,500
2019

2020

16,000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2019-2020
[May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Milk cows 1
Quarter

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2019

2020

2019

2020

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

January-March ...................
April-June ..........................
July-September ..................
October-December ............

9,346
9,331
9,322
9,345

Annual ...............................

9,336

9,374
9,362
9,365

5,823
5,971
5,818
5,779

2019

2020

(million pounds) (million pounds)

5,988
5,981
5,907

54,423
55,716
54,237
54,006

23,391

Change
from
2019
(percent)

56,130
55,997
55,323

3.1
0.5
2.0

218,382

1

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production by Month – 24 Selected States: 2019-2020
[May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Milk cows 1
Month

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2019

2020

2019

2020

2019

2020

Change
from
2019

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

(percent)

17,699
16,132
17,916
17,544
18,137
17,342
17,542
17,439
16,796
17,299
16,699
17,517

17,956
17,031
18,455
17,778
18,049
17,486
17,891
17,764
17,201
17,726
17,224

January ..............
February ............
March .................
April ...................
May ....................
June ...................
July ....................
August ...............
September .........
October ..............
November ..........
December ..........

8,805
8,803
8,789
8,788
8,790
8,784
8,785
8,789
8,805
8,819
8,817
8,816

Annual ...............

8,799

8,834
8,848
8,857
8,852
8,836
8,827
8,840
8,845
8,864
8,886
8,899

2,010
1,833
2,038
1,996
2,063
1,974
1,997
1,984
1,908
1,962
1,894
1,987

2,033
1,925
2,084
2,008
2,043
1,981
2,024
2,008
1,941
1,995
1,935

23,646

1.5
5.6
3.0
1.3
-0.5
0.8
2.0
1.9
2.4
2.5
3.1

208,062

1

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month – United States: 2019-2020
[May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Milk cows 1
Month

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2019

2020

2019

2020

2019

2020

Change
from
2019

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

(percent)

18,612
16,966
18,845
18,433
19,058
18,225
18,375
18,267
17,595
18,135
17,506
18,365

18,860
17,890
19,380
18,675
18,955
18,367
18,725
18,595
18,003
18,553
18,025

January ..............
February ............
March .................
April ...................
May ....................
June ...................
July ....................
August ...............
September .........
October ..............
November ..........
December ..........

9,354
9,352
9,333
9,332
9,333
9,327
9,315
9,318
9,333
9,347
9,345
9,343

Annual ...............

9,336

9,361
9,375
9,385
9,375
9,360
9,350
9,357
9,361
9,376
9,395
9,407

1,990
1,814
2,019
1,975
2,042
1,954
1,973
1,960
1,885
1,940
1,873
1,966
23,391

2,015
1,908
2,065
1,992
2,025
1,964
2,001
1,986
1,920
1,975
1,916

1.3
5.4
2.8
1.3
-0.5
0.8
1.9
1.8
2.3
2.3
3.0

218,382

1

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

2

Milk Production (December 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Milk Cows and Production – 24 Selected States: November 2019 and 2020
[May not add due to rounding]
Milk cows 1
State

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2019

2020

2019

2020

2019

2020

Change
from
2019

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(percent)

(million pounds)

(million pounds)

Arizona ..................
California ...............
Colorado ................
Florida ...................
Georgia .................
Idaho .....................
Illinois ....................
Indiana ..................
Iowa .......................
Kansas ..................

196
1,725
190
117
81
634
82
176
216
165

195
1,720
201
112
81
645
84
191
219
173

1,990
1,895
2,085
1,570
1,755
2,000
1,700
1,825
1,980
1,920

1,960
1,950
2,110
1,570
1,780
2,005
1,750
1,865
2,000
1,940

390
3,269
396
184
142
1,268
139
321
428
317

382
3,354
424
176
144
1,293
147
356
438
336

-2.1
2.6
7.1
-4.3
1.4
2.0
5.8
10.9
2.3
6.0

Michigan ................
Minnesota ..............
New Mexico ...........
New York ...............
Ohio .......................
Oregon ..................
Pennsylvania .........
South Dakota .........
Texas ....................
Utah .......................

427
446
330
626
252
127
485
127
575
97

433
448
332
626
257
125
482
140
608
95

2,125
1,770
1,970
1,940
1,730
1,645
1,665
1,825
1,955
1,860

2,170
1,830
2,005
1,980
1,780
1,650
1,690
1,880
2,030
1,880

907
789
650
1,214
436
209
808
232
1,124
180

940
820
666
1,239
457
206
815
263
1,234
179

3.6
3.9
2.5
2.1
4.8
-1.4
0.9
13.4
9.8
-0.6

Vermont .................
Virginia ..................
Washington ...........
Wisconsin ..............

124
74
281
1,264

120
74
279
1,259

1,725
1,610
1,930
1,915

1,725
1,630
1,935
1,975

214
119
542
2,421

207
121
540
2,487

-3.3
1.7
-0.4
2.7

24-State Total ........

8,817

8,899

1,894

1,935

16,699

17,224

3.1

1

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Monthly Milk Cows - 24 Selected States
Thousand head

8,900
8,880
8,860
8,840
8,820
8,800
2019

2020

8,780
Jan

Feb

Mar

Milk Production (December 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

3

Milk Cows and Production – 24 Selected States: October 2019 and 2020
[May not add due to rounding]
Milk cows 1

Milk per cow 2

Milk production 2

2019

2020

2019

2020

2019

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(pounds)

(pounds)

(million pounds)

Change
from
2019

2020
(million pounds)

(percent)

Arizona ..................
California ...............
Colorado ................
Florida ....................
Georgia ..................
Idaho ......................
Illinois .....................
Indiana ...................
Iowa .......................
Kansas ...................

197
1,725
190
118
81
632
81
176
217
164

196
1,720
201
112
81
645
84
191
219
172

1,985
1,940
2,160
1,515
1,715
2,095
1,690
1,920
2,040
1,975

1,960
1,965
2,185
1,525
1,740
2,100
1,740
1,960
2,065
1,985

391
3,347
410
179
139
1,324
137
338
443
324

384
3,380
439
171
141
1,355
146
374
452
341

-1.8
1.0
7.1
-4.5
1.4
2.3
6.6
10.7
2.0
5.2

Michigan ................
Minnesota ..............
New Mexico ...........
New York ...............
Ohio .......................
Oregon ...................
Pennsylvania .........
South Dakota .........
Texas .....................
Utah .......................

428
447
330
626
252
126
485
127
575
97

431
446
332
626
256
124
482
140
603
95

2,230
1,845
2,040
2,015
1,790
1,745
1,705
1,900
2,035
1,945

2,270
1,920
2,065
2,035
1,850
1,740
1,760
1,955
2,100
1,950

954
825
673
1,261
451
220
827
241
1,170
189

978
856
686
1,274
474
216
848
274
1,266
185

2.5
3.8
1.9
1.0
5.1
-1.8
2.5
13.7
8.2
-2.1

Vermont .................
Virginia ...................
Washington ............
Wisconsin ..............

125
74
281
1,265

120
74
279
1,257

1,790
1,620
2,025
2,010

1,765
1,660
2,035
2,055

224
120
569
2,543

212
123
568
2,583

-5.4
2.5
-0.2
1.6

24-State Total ........

8,819

8,886

1,962

1,995

17,299

17,726

2.5

1
2

Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.
Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Monthly Milk Per Cow - 24 Selected States
Pounds

2,100
2,050

2,000
1,950
1,900
1,850
2019

2020

1,800
Jan

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Milk Production (December 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers.
Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a
sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to
obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail
response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates
duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy
Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey.
Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications,
historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics
Board for reasonableness.
Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month
after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data
from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions.
However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to
revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary,
a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are
minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data
for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for
selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is
computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk
production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate
will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.2 billion pounds by more than 0.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10
that the difference will not exceed 0.5 percent.

Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Months
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)

Milk production ...............................

0.3

0.5

36

0

115

14

9

All Milk cows ...................................

0.1

0.1

6

0

16

17

5

Milk Production (December 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

5

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected].
Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......................................................................................................... (202) 692-0069
Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ............................................................................................................ (202) 690-2424
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter ................................................................................................ (202) 690-8632
Holly Brenize – Sheep and Goats ............................................................................................................. (202) 720-0585
Ryan Cowen – Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....................................................................................................... (202) 720-3040
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows ....................................................................................... (202) 720-3278
Suzanne Richards – Dairy Products .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-4448
Seth Riggins – Hogs and Pigs ................................................................................................................... (202) 720-3106

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