Turkey Hatchery - Release

Turkey Hatchery
ISSN: 1949-1964

Released September 15, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Eggs in Incubators on September 1 Down 5 Percent from Last Year
Turkey eggs in incubators on September 1, 2021 in the United States totaled 24.7 million, down 5 percent from
September 1, 2020. Eggs in incubators were down 8 percent from the August 1, 2021 total of 27.0 million eggs.
Poults Hatched During August Down Slightly from Last Year
Turkey poults hatched during August 2021 in the United States totaled 22.5 million, down slightly from August 2020.
Poults hatched were down slightly from the July 2021 total of 22.6 million poults.
Net Poults Placed During August Up 2 Percent from Last Year
The 21.4 million net poults placed during August 2021 in the United States were up 2 percent from the number placed
during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were down 3 percent from the July 2021 total of 22.1 million.

Net Poult Placements – United States
Million poults
24
23
22
21
20

19
2020

2021

18
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month – United States: 2019-2022
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
Month

Eggs in incubators first of month

Poults hatched entire month

2020-2021

2021-2022

Percent of
previous year

2019-2020

2020-2021

Percent of
previous year

(1,000 eggs)

(1,000 eggs)

(percent)

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

September .....................
October ..........................
November ......................
December ......................
January ..........................
February ........................
March .............................
April ................................
May ................................
June ...............................
July ................................
August ...........................

25,989
27,293
26,764
26,982
24,635
26,153
26,150
27,547
25,403
25,958
26,396
26,973

24,696

95

22,464
24,905
22,325
22,655
23,879
22,566
23,729
23,461
21,562
23,940
23,759
22,509

21,840
23,290
22,230
23,090
21,502
20,705
23,269
22,599
20,903
21,714
22,561
22,468

97
94
100
102
90
92
98
96
97
91
95
100

Net Poult Placements by Month – United States: 2019-2021
[Includes imports and excludes exports]
Month

September .....................
October ..........................
November ......................
December ......................
January ..........................
February ........................
March .............................
April ................................
May ................................
June ...............................
July ................................
August ...........................

2

Total all breeds

Cumulative total

2019-2020

2020-2021

Percent of
previous year

2019-2020

2020-2021

Percent of
previous year

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

(1,000 poults)

(1,000 poults)

(percent)

20,125
21,857
20,199
20,216
21,414
20,663
21,741
22,053
19,559
22,764
23,013
20,945

19,141
20,114
20,070
20,569
19,751
18,995
21,982
21,620
19,584
20,926
22,127
21,407

95
92
99
102
92
92
101
98
100
92
96
102

20,125
41,982
62,181
82,397
103,811
124,474
146,215
168,268
187,827
210,591
233,604
254,549

19,141
39,255
59,325
79,894
99,645
118,640
140,622
162,242
181,826
202,752
224,879
246,286

95
94
95
97
96
95
96
96
97
96
96
97

Turkey Hatchery (September 2021)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS
regional field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their
lists. Approximately 45 hatcheries in 20 states are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or
more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to
respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to
ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.
Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data
are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends
from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS
regional field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual
State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed
to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of
hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.
Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey
Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available
for slaughter during the calendar year.
Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are
published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production Annual Summary report in April.
Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no
sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict
quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected
items in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past performance and is
computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for turkey eggs in
incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 2.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 24.7 million eggs by more than 2.9 percent. Chances
are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 5.0 percent.

Reliability of September Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Months
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)

Eggs in incubators .........................................

2.9

5.0

557

1

2,201

15

9

Poults hatched ...............................................

1.8

3.1

258

0

1,319

13

10

Net poult placements ....................................

2.1

3.6

308

0

1,329

17

6

Turkey Hatchery (September 2021)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ...................................................................................................... (202) 692-0069
Jean Porter, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ................................................................... (202) 690-3223
Holly Brenize – Poultry Slaughter.......................................................................................................... (202) 720-0585
Alissa Cowell-Mytar – Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses ......................................... (202) 720-4751
Liana Cuffman – Catfish and Trout, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ....................................................... (202) 720-8784
Fatema Haque – Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ............................................................................... (202) 720-3244
Derron Martin – Chicken Hatchery, Egg Products ................................................................................. (202) 690-3237
Seth Riggins – Honey, Honey Bee Colonies .......................................................................................... (202) 690-4870
Autumn Stone – Layers, Eggs ............................................................................................................... (202) 690-3676
Takiyah Walker – Broiler Hatchery........................................................................................................ (202) 720-6147

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USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting
Virtual Meeting
October 13 & 14, 2021
12:00 – 3:00 p.m. ET
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will hold a virtual meeting for users of U.S. domestic and
international agriculture data. NASS is organizing the 2021 Fall Data Users’ Meeting in cooperation with five
other USDA agencies – Agricultural Marketing Service, Economic Research Service, Farm Service Agency,
Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board – and the Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade
Division. Agency representatives will answer questions and welcome comments and input from data users.
Registration details will be coming soon.