Turkeys Raised - Release

Turkeys Raised
ISSN: 1949-1972

Released September 24, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Turkeys Raised Down 3 percent from 2019
Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2020 forecasted at 222 million, down 3 percent from the number raised
during 2019.
The top six states account for 69 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2020. The largest turkey
producing state is Minnesota, at 39.0 million turkeys, down 2 percent from the previous year. Arkansas is up 3 percent
from the previous year at 31.0 million turkeys produced. North Carolina produced 30.0 million turkeys, down 3 percent
from a year ago. Indiana produced 20.0 million turkeys, unchanged from last year. Virginia is up 2 percent from last year
at 16.3 million turkeys. Missouri produced 16.0 million turkeys, down 3 percent from the previous year.

Turkeys Raised – United States
Million head
255
250
245
240
235

230
225
220
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Turkeys Raised – States and United States: 2019 and 2020
Turkeys raised
State

2019

2020

2020 as
percent
of 2019

(1,000 head)

(1,000 head)

(percent)

Arkansas ...........................................................................
California ..........................................................................
Indiana ..............................................................................
Iowa ..................................................................................
Michigan ...........................................................................
Minnesota .........................................................................
Missouri ............................................................................
North Carolina ...................................................................
Ohio ..................................................................................
Pennsylvania ....................................................................

30,000
8,500
20,000
11,700
5,300
40,000
16,500
31,000
5,900
6,200

31,000
8,000
20,000
11,700
5,400
39,000
16,000
30,000
5,900
6,600

103
94
100
100
102
98
97
97
100
106

South Dakota ....................................................................
Virginia ..............................................................................
West Virginia .....................................................................

4,500
16,000
3,100

4,500
16,300
3,300

100
102
106

Other States 1 ...................................................................

30,300

24,300

80

United States ....................................................................

229,000

222,000

97

1

Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Data for turkeys raised estimates are collected from all known operations raising 1,000 or more
turkeys annually. NASS regional offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations. Approximately 295
turkey grow-out operations are contacted in September and February. The data collected were received by electronic data
reporting, mail and telephone.
Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young turkeys intended for meat production and
breeder turkeys reaching maturity during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or those
destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery Survey and indications from the September
Turkeys Raised Survey provide the basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates, published
in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications
for the final estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data provided by state turkey or poultry
associations.
Revision Policy: Estimates from the previous year are subject to revision when final raised estimates are made in April.
Revisions are primarily based on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the
five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

2

Turkeys Raised (September 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Reliability: Turkeys raised estimates are based on a census of all known turkey grow-out operations, and therefore have
no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, mistakes in reporting or
recording, and processing of the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict
quality controls in the data collection process, and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the “Root Mean Square Error” for number of turkeys
raised is shown in the following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on past performance
and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for number of
turkeys raised over the past 10 years is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not
be above or below the current estimate of 222 million turkeys by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the
difference will not exceed 3.3 percent.

Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates
[Based on data for the past ten years]
Item

Root mean
square error
(percent)

Turkeys raised .................................

1.8

Difference between first and latest estimate

90 percent
confidence
level

Average

Smallest

Largest

(percent)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

3.3

2,898

500

11,000

Years
Below latest

Above latest

(number)

(number)
5

5

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......................................................................................................... (202) 692-0069
Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ..................................................................... (202) 690-3223
Holly Brenize – Poultry Slaughter............................................................................................................. (202) 720-0585
Alissa Cowell-Mytar – Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .......................................... (202) 720-4751
Liana Cuffman – Catfish and Trout, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ........................................................ (202) 720-8784
Fatema Haque – Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ................................................................................. (202) 720-3244
Adam Peters – Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ............................................................................................ (202) 690-4870
Autumn Stone – Layers, Eggs, Egg Products ........................................................................................... (202) 690-3676
Takiyah Walker – Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery .......................................................................... (202) 720-6147

Turkeys Raised (September 2020)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

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USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting
Virtual Meeting
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will hold a virtual meeting for users of U.S. domestic and
international agriculture data. NASS is organizing the 2020 Fall Data Users’ Meeting in cooperation with five
other USDA agencies – Agricultural Marketing Service, Economic Research Service, Farm Service Agency,
Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board – and the Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade
Division. Agency representatives will answer questions and welcome comments and input from data users.
Registration details will be coming soon.