Pulication 6292

STATISTICS OF INCOME DIVISION
RESEARCH, APPLIED ANALYTICS, AND STATISTICS

Publication 6292

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States: 2023–2030

Spring 2023

Projections

of Federal Tax Return Filings

w w w.i r s.g ov/st at i st i c s
Publication 6292 (Rev. 6-2023)

Catalog Number 59069P Department of the Treasury

Internal Revenue Service

www.irs.gov/statistics

Publication 6292 (revised 6-2023) is a product of the IRS Statistics of Income Division,
Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics.

Department of the Treasury
Internal Revenue Service
Daniel I. Werfel
Commissioner
Jeffrey J. Tribiano
Deputy Commissioner for Operations Support
Melanie R. Krause
Chief Data and Analytics Officer
Barry W. Johnson
Deputy Chief Data and Analytics Officer – Statistics
Director, Statistics of Income

Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics (RAAS)

Laura R. Rasmussen
Chief, Statistical Services Branch
Timothy S. Castle
Chief, Servicewide Support Section

Fiscal Year Return
Projections for
the United States:
2023–2030

Publication 6292
Spring 2023

Suggested Citation
Internal Revenue Service
Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics
Statistics of Income Division
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States
Publication 6292 (Rev. 6-2023)
Washington, D.C. 20224

Table of Contents
(Spring 2023)

Principal Contacts...................................................................................................................... iii

Online Availability of Forecasts.................................................................................................. iii

Overview.....................................................................................................................................1

Data Sources and Projections Methodology ..............................................................................1

Summary of Significant Trends...................................................................................................2

Accuracy of Prior Projections .....................................................................................................3

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with

IRS, 2023–2030...........................................................................................................4

Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating

Division (BOD), 2023–2030 .........................................................................................6

Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories—

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Number of Overprojections
for the Four Most Recent Projection Cycles ................................................................7

Table Notes.................................................................................................................................8

Projection Publication Series....................................................................................................10

(ii)

Principal Contacts
Questions or comments regarding these return forecasts, or related matters, can be directed to
the corresponding staff member listed below.
Business Returns

Jeff Matsuo
Michelle Chu
Derrick Dennis
Yan K. Liu

(202) 803-9363
(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9337
(202) 803-9357

Individual Returns (Estimated Tax,
Extensions, and Amended)

Yan K. Liu
Derrick Dennis
Andy J. Roche

(202) 803-9357
(202) 803-9337
(202) 803-9334

Other Comments or Questions

Yan K. Liu
Michelle Chu

(202) 803-9357
(202) 803-9369

Online Availability of Forecasts
Forecasts from the most recent edition of this publication may be found on the IRS Internet
pages. The World Wide Web address is: www.irs.gov/statistics. From the webpage, select “Pro­
jections Publications” in the “Products and Publications” section.
We thank our customers for their support as we continually seek to improve our products
and services wherever possible. We welcome customer feedback at any time. Comments
and suggestions regarding this publication can be directed to Timothy Castle, Chief, Ser­
vicewide Support Section, at (202) 803-9106.

Barry W. Johnson
Deputy Chief Data and Analytics Officer – Statistics
Director Statistics of Income, RAAS

(iii)

Overview
The Spring 2023 edition of IRS Publication 6292, Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States: 2023–2030, provides U.S.-level projections of the number of tax returns expected to be
filed in fiscal year (FY) 2023 through FY 2030 by: (1) major return categories; and (2) business
operating divisions.
Statistics of Income (SOI) staff within IRS Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics (RAAS)
prepare these projections semiannually to incorporate changes in filing patterns, economic and
demographic trends, legislative requirements, and IRS administrative processes.

Data Sources and Projections Methodology
IRS Data Sources
To develop projections for FY 2023 through FY 2030, SOI staff relied on data from the IRS
Master File, which reports the historical number of returns processed and recorded each year.
In cases where Master File return counts were not available, SOI staff relied on other data
sources, including Business Objects Enterprise Data and data provided by program staff in the
IRS operating divisions.
General Projections Methodology
SOI staff computed the projections presented here for the calendar year of filing; and then con­
verted them to the corresponding FY numbers based on the historical quarterly filing experience.
For some individual return series, SOI staff computed the projections based on quarterly histori­
cal data and then derived the FY projections by adding the relevant four quarters.
The projections are derived from various statistical models that capture and extrapolate histori­
cal filing trends by unique form types and filing mediums. Most models use time series extrapola­
tion methods, such as trended exponential smoothing. However, the projections for some return
types are based on regression models that used the April 2023 economic and demographic
variables provided by IHS Markit as key input factors. Additionally, where historical data were
limited or nonexistent, such as for new e-file products, the filing pattern for a comparable return
type was applied.
Adjustments Related to Implications from COVID-19 Pandemic
SOI staff extensively researched U.S. laws and the IRS administrative processes that will
impact the FY 2023 to FY 2030 tax return volumes. With the three previous tax seasons
impacted by processing delays, the IRS has taken additional steps in 2023 to improve service for
taxpayers. As part of the August 2022 passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the IRS hired
and trained new staff to help support taxpayers. It is expected that tax return processing will be
back to pre-pandemic operations starting in 2023.
Additionally, some paper returns that were filed in CY 2022 were not processed until CY 2023.
SOI staff had to determine how to account for these carryover paper volumes in the FY 2023
estimates. Moreover, as has been done in the previous three CYs, a significant portion of
some paper-filed returns may be processed in the fourth quarter of the year, which would
impact the FY 2024 estimates. Based on the data analysis, staff made appropriate adjustments
to some of their modeled forecasts and shifted some paper returns from FY 2023 to FY 2024.
(1)

Electronic Filing Option for Form 1040-X
On May 28, 2020, the IRS announced that taxpayers could submit an Amended U.S. Individual
Income Tax Return (Form 1040-X) electronically using commercial tax filing software.
To develop the initial projections for the new electronic Form 1040-X filing option, SOI staff in­
vestigated past scenarios and taxpayer filing behavior patterns following the IRS launch of a
new e-file option for other forms. The behavior observed and the number of returns submitted
electronically when past e-file options first became available are reflected in the projections of
electronic Form 1040-X returns. Since 2021, actual Free File and Modernized e-File (MeF)
data significantly contributed to the annual update of the electronic Form 1040-X forecasts.
The Impact of Taxpayer First Act
The Taxpayer First Act (TFA), enacted on July 1, 2019, made filing electronically a more widespread practice for business taxpayers. Two of the TFA provisions directly affect the forecasts
provided in this publication. First, the TFA lowered the required electronic filing thresholds for
corporations and partnerships starting in CY 2021. Second, the TFA made electronic filing
mandatory for tax-exempt organizations (Form 990 series) and political organizations (Form
8872) starting in CY 2021. Both provisions have increased the number of electronic filings for
the impacted forms, and will ultimately either decrease, or eliminate altogether, the amount of
paper filings.
New Digital Intake Scanning Initiative
On March 8, 2023, the IRS announced a new Digital Intake initiative to scan popular paper
forms, including Forms 1040, 940, and 941, beginning in 2023. The scanned paper returns will
be treated as electronic returns for reporting purposes. The projections provided in this docu­
ment do not account for the Digital Intake initiative. Future Publication 6292 updates will con­
sider how to reflect the scanned paper volumes, as more data becomes available.

Summary of Significant Trends
A summary of the major trends for this edition of Publication 6292 are noted below:
Trends in the Grand Total Return Filings
As presented in Table 1, the grand total of return filings was 260.3 million in FY 2022, a
decrease of 3.2 percent over FY 2021. The paper grand total was 54.8 million in FY 2022, a
decrease of 12.7 percent from the FY 2021. This is largely due to the higher than usual FY
2021 paper volumes that resulted from carryover due to the paper processing delay.
The Internal Revenue Service has processed all the paper returns that were carried over from
CY 2022 and continues to process the tax returns filed in CY 2023. The FY 2023 count of
overall paper returns is estimated to be larger than the FY 2022 count of paper returns due to
the larger than usual number of paper returns that were processed in the fourth quarter of CY
2022 (the first quarter of FY 2023). However, the volume of overall paper returns is expected
to return to its normal trend in FY 2024, with an expected count of 50.8 million. After FY 2024,
the paper grand total is projected to decline by an average annual rate of 6.0 percent. Over the
same period, the overall grand total is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.8
percent, reaching 288.2 million by FY 2030.
(2)

The electronic grand total was 205.6 million in FY 2022, a decrease of 0.4 percent over FY 2021.
The electronic grand total in FY 2023 is expected to be approximately 220.0 million filings. After
FY 2023, the electronic grand total is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent.
Detail by Business Operating Division
Table 2 presents estimates of selected return filings by the IRS Business Operating Division
(BOD). The selected returns include total individual income tax, corporation income tax,
partnership, employment excise tax and exempt organization returns. As applicable, these
volumes are broken out by their operating division components: Wage and Investment (W&I),
Small Business/Self-Employed (SB/SE), Large Business and International (LB&I), and Tax
Exempt/Government Entities (TE/GE). Table 2 also includes the projected total filings of
Employee Plan (EP) returns, including those processed by the Department of Labor, as these
returns are filed by a major segment of taxpayers served by the TE/GE operating division.

Accuracy of Prior Projections
To measure the quality of our products and services, this section, along with Table 3, provides
a brief analysis of the accuracy of prior projections. Using four years of actual data, from 2019
through 2022, Table 3 presents the accuracy of our national level projections by major return
categories. This analysis covers only the major return categories projected on a calendar year
basis and serves as a general measure for approximating the overall reliability of our U.S. level
return projections.
The table presents two measures of projection accuracy: (1) the Mean Absolute Percent Error
(MAPE); and (2) the number of overprojections. The MAPE is computed as the average percentage projection error for the four-year period, regardless of whether the projections were over
or under the actual filings in each of the four projection cycles. The number of overprojections
can show whether projections are consistently over- or under-projected. A value of “2” indicates
balanced forecasts over the four cycles.
The table groups these two measures by time horizon. The time horizon is determined based on
the year a forecast was made and the year projected. For example, a forecast for 2019 made in
2016 would be part of the “3-years-ahead” time horizon.

(3)

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2023–2030
Type of Return

Grand Total
Paper Grand Total

Projected

Actual—
FY 2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

260,325,402

276,967,900

274,714,700

276,543,000

278,681,500

280,927,800

283,271,200

2030
(9)

285,728,300

288,184,200

54,774,896

56,971,800

50,769,600

46,731,900

44,106,900

41,730,800

39,437,200

37,246,400

35,088,200

205,550,506

219,996,100

223,945,100

229,811,100

234,574,500

239,197,000

243,834,000

248,481,900

253,096,000

Total Primary Returns

224,661,442

238,297,200

236,384,600

238,369,400

240,268,300

242,169,900

244,138,700

246,128,100

248,101,500

Individual Income Tax, Total

160,577,401

168,483,100

167,334,600

168,886,500

170,492,700

172,113,800

173,779,700

175,489,700

177,177,100

159,652,554

167,248,600

166,125,000

167,682,500

169,285,500

170,899,400

172,554,100

174,249,100

175,917,300

Electronic Grand Total

Forms 1040, 1040-SP, and 1040-SR, Total
Paper Forms 1040, 1040-SP, and 1040-SR
Electronic Forms 1040, 1040-SP, and 1040-SR
Forms 1040-NR/NR-EZ/C Total

11,748,459

13,426,200

10,732,100

8,767,200

7,902,800

7,201,800

6,562,800

5,980,600

5,450,000

147,904,095

153,822,300

155,392,900

158,915,200

161,382,700

163,697,600

165,991,300

168,268,500

170,467,300

582,990

846,400

851,300

871,400

896,400

921,400

946,500

971,500

996,600

Paper Form 1040-NR

231,845

387,400

344,600

333,400

322,200

311,000

299,800

281,300

263,400

Electronic Form 1040-NR

351,145

459,000

506,700

538,000

574,300

610,500

646,700

690,300

733,200

341,857

388,200

358,300

332,600

310,800

292,900

279,000

269,100

263,200

Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS Total
Paper Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
Electronic Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES, Total
Paper Form 1040-ES
Electronic (Credit Card) Form 1040-ES
Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total
Paper Form 1041
Electronic Form 1041
Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES*
Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total
Paper Forms 1065/1065-B

99,713

123,300

113,800

105,600

98,600

92,900

88,400

85,300

83,400

242,144

264,800

244,500

227,000

212,200

200,000

190,600

183,800

179,800

12,682,195

12,716,700

13,570,500

14,111,800

14,037,300

13,962,800

13,909,400

13,834,700

13,764,700

12,462,080

12,501,800

13,335,200

13,859,500

13,770,900

13,682,300

13,614,100

13,528,500

13,443,900

220,115

214,900

235,200

252,300

266,400

280,500

295,400

306,200

320,800

2,973,224

3,066,400

3,054,800

3,041,500

3,027,300

3,012,900

2,998,500

2,984,600

2,971,200

282,231

326,200

295,000

266,800

241,100

217,900

196,900

177,900

160,700

2,690,993

2,740,100

2,759,800

2,774,800

2,786,200

2,794,900

2,801,600

2,806,700

2,810,600

794,141

775,400

773,900

773,900

773,900

773,900

773,900

773,900

773,900

4,582,871

5,069,500

5,276,700

5,488,300

5,605,500

5,714,500

5,824,600

5,935,300

6,046,400

149,250

394,600

369,400

350,700

343,700

333,500

326,000

320,400

316,300

Electronic Forms 1065/1065-B

4,433,621

4,674,900

4,907,300

5,137,500

5,261,800

5,381,000

5,498,700

5,615,000

5,730,200

Corporation Income Tax, Total

7,783,235

7,917,400

7,940,600

7,989,400

8,036,500

8,081,900

8,125,200

8,166,500

8,205,600

Paper Corporation Returns, Total

1,155,810

1,116,200

1,024,900

970,600

924,800

886,000

853,300

825,700

802,300

Electronic Corporation Returns, Total

6,627,425

6,801,200

6,915,700

7,018,800

7,111,800

7,195,800

7,271,900

7,340,800

7,403,300

Form 1120, Total

1,775,943

1,773,500

1,753,100

1,733,800

1,715,800

1,699,200

1,683,900

1,669,900

1,657,100

Paper Form 1120
Electronic Form 1120
Form 1120-C *
Form 1120-F Total
Paper Form 1120-F
Electronic Form 1120-F
Form 1120-H*
Forms 1120-FSC/L/ND/PC/REIT/RIC/SF*
Form 1120-S, Total
Paper Form 1120-S
Electronic Form 1120-S
Small Corporation Election, Form 2553*
"REMIC" Income Tax, Form 1066*
Estate, Forms 706, 706NA/GS(D)/GS(T), Total*
Gift, Form 709*
Employment Tax, Total

295,595

270,800

246,900

225,300

205,800

188,100

172,100

157,600

144,500

1,480,348

1,502,700

1,506,200

1,508,500

1,510,100

1,511,100

1,511,800

1,512,300

1,512,700

8,798

11,000

8,900

8,900

8,900

8,900

8,900

8,900

8,900

57,190

58,200

59,100

60,000

60,900

61,700

62,500

63,200

63,900

18,636

17,000

16,100

15,400

14,800

14,400

14,000

13,700

13,400

38,554

41,200

43,000

44,600

46,000

47,300

48,500

49,600

50,500

301,454

283,100

269,100

272,600

276,000

279,500

282,900

286,400

289,800

56,013

60,400

54,600

56,200

57,700

59,200

60,700

62,200

63,700

5,583,837

5,731,200

5,795,800

5,857,900

5,917,200

5,973,400

6,026,300

6,075,800

6,122,100

475,314

474,000

429,200

392,200

361,500

336,000

314,700

296,900

281,900

5,108,523

5,257,300

5,366,600

5,465,700

5,555,700

5,637,400

5,711,500

5,778,900

5,840,200

621,641

720,400

751,700

765,100

773,200

779,500

785,400

791,100

796,700

55,566

61,000

42,400

42,500

42,600

42,600

42,600

42,700

42,700

27,088

47,800

20,500

19,700

18,900

18,200

17,400

16,600

15,800

247,122

492,300

242,900

242,600

242,400

242,200

241,900

241,700

241,200

31,120,326

35,675,700

34,190,300

33,790,300

33,966,700

Paper Employment Returns, Total

12,157,738

14,692,100

12,354,400

10,943,600

10,032,100

9,087,000

8,105,400

7,083,300

6,018,700

Electronic Employment Returns, Total

18,962,588

20,983,500

21,835,900

22,846,600

23,934,600

25,057,200

26,216,800

27,416,700

28,660,800

6,443,792

6,531,100

6,427,900

6,461,000

6,495,800

6,530,800

6,566,000

6,601,300

6,636,800

Paper Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR

2,795,292

2,133,100

2,048,200

1,854,200

1,668,800

1,490,900

1,319,600

1,154,500

Form 940 E-File/Online/XML

3,648,500

4,398,000

4,379,800

4,606,800

4,827,000

5,039,900

5,246,300

5,446,800

5,641,800

24,275,000

28,817,300

27,475,300

27,064,000

27,216,800

27,369,600

27,522,400

27,675,200

27,827,900

Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR, Total

Forms 941, 941-PR, and 941-SS, Total
Paper Form 941, 941-PR/SS, Total

34,144,200

34,322,200

34,500,100

34,679,500

995,000

9,006,228

12,290,500

10,078,000

8,882,500

8,170,400

7,417,500

6,621,100

5,778,400

4,886,100

15,268,772

16,526,700

17,397,300

18,181,500

19,046,400

19,952,100

20,901,200

21,896,800

22,941,800

254,438

179,000

162,500

153,900

149,400

144,900

140,500

135,700

132,000

234,901

155,500

136,300

125,100

117,900

110,800

103,700

96,200

89,900

19,537

23,500

26,200

28,900

31,500

34,200

36,800

39,500

42,100

87,562

81,600

69,700

61,900

57,700

54,300

50,900

47,500

44,100

Paper Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS

68,428

54,200

46,100

42,600

39,100

35,300

31,500

27,800

24,000

Electronic Form 944

19,134

27,300

23,600

19,300

18,600

19,000

19,400

19,800

20,200

58,327

64,400

53,100

47,500

45,100

42,800

40,600

38,600

36,700

51,682

56,500

44,100

37,400

34,000

30,700

27,600

24,600

21,800

Electronic Form 945

6,645

7,900

9,000

10,100

11,100

12,100

13,000

14,000

14,900

Form CT-1*
Footnotes are at end of table.

1,207

2,300

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

Electronic Form 941 E-File/Online/XML
Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS, Total
Paper Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Electronic Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS, Total

Form 945, Total
Paper Form 945

(4)

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2023–2030—Continued
Type of Return

Withholding on Foreign Persons, Form 1042**
Exempt Organizations, Total
Paper Exempt Organizations, Total
Electronic Exempt Organizations, Total
Form 990, Total
Paper Form 990
Electronic Form 990
Form 990-EZ, Total
Paper Form 990-EZ

Projected

Actual—
FY 2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

2030
(9)

60,348

63,300

65,800

68,500

71,400

74,400

77,500

80,700

84,100

1,702,723

1,735,100

1,780,800

1,804,200

1,825,100

1,846,000

1,867,000

1,888,100

1,909,400

187,612

134,600

73,500

53,900

42,100

36,600

27,200

22,200

16,100

1,515,111

1,600,600

1,707,300

1,750,300

1,782,900

1,809,400

1,839,800

1,865,900

1,893,300

343,881

351,800

351,100

346,800

346,800

346,800

346,800

346,800

346,800

20,378

6,000

1,000

0

0

0

0

0

0

323,503

345,700

350,100

346,800

346,800

346,800

346,800

346,800

346,800

245,299

250,800

251,000

251,000

251,000

251,000

251,000

251,000

251,000

58,755

28,800

4,500

0

0

0

0

0

0

186,544

222,000

246,500

251,000

251,000

251,000

251,000

251,000

251,000

Form 990-N***

686,065

681,400

733,100

762,100

783,600

805,100

826,600

848,100

869,600

Form 990-PF, Total

124,081

133,500

130,100

127,200

129,200

131,300

133,300

135,400

137,400

6,629

2,100

500

0

0

0

0

0

0

117,452

131,400

129,600

127,200

129,200

131,300

133,300

135,400

137,400

217,513

223,900

233,200

237,500

237,500

237,500

237,500

237,500

237,500

Electronic Form 990-EZ

Paper Form 990-PF
Electronic Form 990-PF
Form 990-T Total****
Paper Form 990-T
Electronic Form 990-T
Form 4720 Total
Paper Form 4720
Electronic Form 4720
Form 5227 Total
Paper Form 5227
Electronic Form 5227*****
Form 1041-A*
Government Entity/Bonds
Form 8038*
Form 8038-CP**
Form 8038-G*
Form 8038-GC*

17,805

8,800

1,300

0

0

0

0

0

0

199,708

215,100

231,900

237,500

237,500

237,500

237,500

237,500

237,500

5,499

3,800

2,900

3,000

3,000

3,100

3,100

3,200

3,200

3,660

2,100

1,300

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

700

1,839

1,800

1,600

1,800

2,100

2,200

2,400

2,500

2,500

80,385

89,900

79,500

76,600

73,800

71,200

68,600

66,100

63,800
15,400

80,385

86,800

64,900

52,800

41,200

35,700

26,500

21,500

N/A

3,100

14,600

23,800

32,600

35,400

42,100

44,600

6,900

10,700

6,400

6,000

5,700

5,400

5,100

4,800

4,600

42,471

47,000

43,500

40,600

39,700

38,900

38,000

37,200

36,300

2,960

3,500

3,300

3,200

3,000

2,900

2,700

48,400

2,600

2,400

5,991

5,500

5,600

5,700

5,700

5,700

5,700

5,700

5,700

26,769

30,500

27,600

25,200

24,800

24,400

24,100

23,700

23,300

5,877

6,700

6,400

6,000

5,700

5,300

5,000

4,700

4,300

Form 8038-T*

430

500

400

400

400

400

400

400

Form 8328*

444

300

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

12,281

9,600

10,600

10,100

11,000

10,300

11,300

10,600

11,600

Political Organizations, Total
Form 1120-POL, Total
Paper Form 1120-POL
Electronic Form 1120-POL

400

5,793

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,000

4,000

4,000

4,000

4,000

5,699

3,600

3,800

3,900

3,900

3,900

3,900

3,900

3,900

94

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Form 8871***

3,813

3,800

3,900

3,900

4,100

4,200

4,300

4,500

4,600

Form 8872, Total

2,675

2,100

2,800

2,100

2,900

2,100

2,900

2,100

2,900

Paper Form 8872
Electronic Form 8872
Excise, Total
Form 11-C*
Form 720, Total
Paper Form 720
Electronic Form 720
Form 730*

33

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,642

2,000

2,800

2,100

2,900

2,100

2,900

2,100

2,900

1,145,976

1,164,800

1,146,300

1,157,500

1,169,100

1,180,600

1,192,400

1,204,400

1,216,700

2,567

5,100

3,600

3,500

3,500

3,500

3,500

3,500

3,400

135,903

209,400

178,700

176,700

174,700

172,600

170,600

168,600

166,600

131,905

205,300

174,000

171,700

169,400

167,100

164,800

162,500

160,300

3,998

4,100

4,700

5,000

5,300

5,500

5,800

6,100

6,300

22,926

19,100

18,800

18,000

17,200

16,500

15,700

15,100

14,500

967,958

908,800

922,900

937,100

951,500

965,900

980,600

995,400

1,010,500

Paper Form 2290

120,094

112,700

111,900

111,100

110,300

109,400

108,600

107,900

105,800

Electronic Form 2290

847,864

796,200

811,000

826,000

841,200

856,500

872,000

887,500

904,700

Form 2290, Total

Form 8849, Total

16,622

22,400

22,300

22,200

22,100

22,000

21,900

21,800

21,800

Paper Form 8849

8,929

15,300

15,000

14,500

14,000

13,500

13,100

12,600

12,100

Electronic Form 8849

7,693

7,100

7,400

7,700

8,100

8,500

8,900

9,300

9,600

20,221

29,700

20,300

20,200

20,200

20,100

20,100

20,000

20,000

189,220

181,800

93,100

92,800

92,600

92,500

92,400

92,300

92,200

Excise Taxes re Employee Plans, Form 5330*
Form 5500-EZ, One-Participant Retirement Plans*
Payment or Refund Under Sec. 7519, Form 8752*
Supplemental Documents, Total
Form 1040-X, Total
Paper Form 1040-X
Electronic Form 1040-X

16,492

29,500

18,900

17,800

16,600

15,400

14,200

13,100

11,900

35,663,960

38,670,800

38,330,100

38,173,600

38,413,200

38,757,900

39,132,500

39,600,200

40,082,700

6,341,464

4,804,800

4,473,200

4,186,000

3,937,400

3,722,100

3,535,900

3,374,800

3,235,600

4,596,061

2,689,600

2,341,900

2,040,200

1,778,600

1,551,700

1,354,900

1,184,200

1,036,100

1,745,403

2,115,200

2,131,300

2,145,800

2,158,700

2,170,400

2,181,000

2,190,600

2,199,400

15,144,456

19,350,400

19,852,800

20,003,000

20,185,000

20,383,800

20,582,600

20,850,200

21,110,700

3,349,087

3,176,300

3,119,200

2,799,800

2,512,300

2,241,500

1,969,400

1,767,400

1,558,400

11,795,369

16,174,000

16,733,500

17,203,100

17,672,700

18,142,300

18,613,200

19,082,800

19,552,300

21,185

29,700

28,400

28,500

28,500

28,500

28,500

28,600

28,600

Form 5558*

1,068,205

734,200

735,700

737,200

738,700

740,300

741,800

743,300

744,800

Form 7004, Total

11,755,800

12,088,800

12,420,900

12,752,900

Form 4868, Total
Paper Form 4868
Electronic Form 4868
Form 1120-X*

9,617,886

10,586,100

10,759,600

11,091,700

11,423,700

Paper Form 7004

1,969,060

1,985,800

1,775,500

1,724,800

1,674,200

1,623,500

1,572,700

1,522,100

1,471,400

Electronic Form 7004

7,648,826

8,600,400

8,984,200

9,366,900

9,749,600

10,132,300

10,516,100

10,898,800

11,281,500

Form 8868, Total

1,231,825

1,215,900

1,228,700

1,252,000

1,275,300

1,298,600

1,321,800

1,345,200

1,368,400

Paper Form 8868

684,258

484,100

467,800

462,100

456,300

450,600

444,800

439,000

433,300

Electronic Form 8868

547,567

731,700

760,800

789,900

819,000

848,000

877,000

906,100

935,200

2,228,753

1,936,500

1,241,700

867,100

817,000

821,600

826,100

830,700

835,300

Form 941-X*
Form 943-X*

5,809

7,700

5,300

4,000

3,800

3,600

3,500

3,400

Form 944-X*

1,943

2,600

2,000

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

Form 945-X*

2,307

2,800

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

2,000

1,900

1,800

Form CT-1X*

127

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

N/A - Not applicable.

*These forms are all paper. Some will have an electronic filing option in the near future. See "Electronic-Filing Requirements for Specified Returns and Other Documents." 88 Fed. Reg. 11754 (February 23, 2023).

** Forms 1042 and 8038-CP returns are included in the Paper Grand Total.

*** Forms 990-N and 8871 are all electronic.

**** FY 2022 volumes of Form 990-T were estimated.

***** Electronic filing option of Form 5227 started in January 2023.

NOTES:

1. On March 8, 2023, the IRS announced a new Digital Intake initiative to scan popular paper forms, including Forms 1040, 940 and 941, beginning in 2023. The scanned paper returns will be treated as electronic returns for reporting purposes. The projections provided in
the Spring 2023 update of Publication 6292 do not account for the Digital Intake initiative. Future Publication 6292 updates will consider how to reflect the scanned paper volumes, as more data become available.
2. Table does not contain non-master file counts. Each of the forms listed under "Type of Return" is defined in the "Table Notes" of Publication 6292.
3. Detail may not add to subtotal/total due to rounding. In addition, actual volumes that are less than 10 have been rounded to the nearest 10.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Spring 2023 Publication 6292.

(5)

3,300

Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating Division (BOD), 2023–2030
Type of Return/BOD

Individual Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
Wage and Investment
Corporation Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

Projected

Actual—
FY 2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

159,652,554

167,248,600

166,125,000

167,682,500

169,285,500

170,899,400

172,554,100

2030
(9)

174,249,100

175,917,300

44,586,253

46,933,000

46,750,200

46,916,600

47,091,000

47,275,800

47,479,500

47,701,900

48,174,700

115,066,301
7,783,235

120,315,600
7,917,400

119,374,800
7,940,600

120,765,900
7,989,400

122,194,500
8,036,500

123,623,600
8,081,900

125,074,700
8,125,200

126,547,200
8,166,500

127,742,600
8,205,600

7,547,408

7,674,500

7,701,600

7,749,100

7,795,000

7,839,100

7,881,300

7,921,400

7,959,400

Large Business and International

224,569

231,500

227,900

229,200

230,500

231,700

232,900

234,100

235,300

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

11,258

11,400

11,100

11,100

11,100

11,000

11,000

11,000

11,000

4,582,871

5,069,500

5,276,700

5,488,300

5,605,500

5,714,500

5,824,600

5,935,300

6,046,400
5,656,300

Partnership Returns, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

4,287,177

4,742,400

4,936,200

5,134,100

5,243,800

5,345,800

5,448,800

5,552,400

Large Business and International

295,254

326,600

340,000

353,600

361,100

368,200

375,300

382,400

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

440

500

500

500

500

500

600

600

600

31,120,326

35,675,700

34,190,300

33,790,300

33,966,700

34,144,200

34,322,200

34,500,100

34,679,500
31,595,400

Employment Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

389,500

28,384,118

32,479,400

31,139,200

30,782,200

30,943,700

31,106,100

31,268,800

31,431,400

Large Business and International

828,328

924,800

885,600

875,000

879,200

883,500

887,900

892,200

896,600

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

1,907,880

2,271,500

2,165,600

2,133,100

2,143,800

2,154,600

2,165,500

2,176,400

2,187,400

1,145,976

1,164,800

1,146,300

1,157,500

1,169,100

1,180,600

1,192,400

1,204,400

1,216,700

1,028,494

1,020,700

1,004,500

1,014,300

1,024,400

1,034,500

1,044,900

1,055,400

1,066,200

Large Business and International

84,396

100,400

98,900

99,800

100,800

101,800

102,800

103,900

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

33,086

43,700

43,000

43,400

43,800

44,300

44,700

45,200

45,600

1,702,723

1,735,100

1,780,800

1,804,200

1,825,100

1,846,000

1,867,000

1,888,100

1,909,400

1,702,723

1,735,100

1,780,800

1,804,200

1,825,100

1,846,000

1,867,000

1,888,100

1,909,400

963,206

991,200

961,600

963,600

974,800

976,400

977,700

979,100

980,500

961,600

963,600

974,800

976,400

977,700

979,100

980,500

Excise, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

Exempt Organization, Total
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
Employee Plans, Forms 5500, 5500EZ, and 5500SF

Tax Exempt/Government Entities
963,206
991,200
NOTES: Detail may not add to total due to rounding. See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return/BOD."
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Spring 2023 Publication 6292.

(6)

104,900

Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories—Mean Absolute Percent Error
(MAPE) and Number of Overprojections for the Four Most Recent Projection Cycles
Projection Error on Forecasts for:
Item

Grand Total—Selected Returns *

Calendar Year
2022 Actual *
(thousands)

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections

Number of Overprojections
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

19.27%

3

4

1.53%

2.59%

3.05%

3.68%

4.15%

3

2

0

0

1

2.59%

1.73%

1.00%

1.82%

2.89%

3

2

3

2

3

12.89%

11.46%

14.49%

17.97%

22.73%

4

3

4

4

4

1.06%

1.96%

2.88%

3.04%

3.15%

1

0

1

0

1

1.41%

1.82%

2.76%

2.42%

2.61%

2

0

1

1

1

27.83%

24.46%

29.10%

26.13%

16.18%

4

3

3

2

4

2.09%

2.78%

4.15%

4.30%

3.83%

1

0

1

1

1

18.28%

36.13%

37.93%

39.94%

48.97%

3

3

4

4

4

3.51%

3.82%

5.08%

6.07%

5.58%

2

1

3

3

3

3.43%

3.75%

4.09%

4.81%

5.68%

3

1

1

1

1

3.37%

6.00%

4.09%

5.06%

3.97%

2

1

1

1

1

5.63%

8.08%

7.27%

7.74%

6.94%

2

1

1

1

1

13.89%

15.94%

10.69%

13.26%

16.06%

3

2

2

3

3

4.35%

5.94%

5.39%

5.35%

6.70%

3

1

1

1

1

1,752

MAPE
Excise Total

16.51%

3

34,139

MAPE
Exempt Organization Total

11.88%

1

7,912

MAPE
Employment Total

14.53%

3

4,886

MAPE
Corporation Total

10.97%

3,074

MAPE
Partnership Total

2

12,608

MAPE
Fiduciary Total

3.14%

2

149,446

MAPE
Individual Estimated Tax

2.69%

1

14,795

MAPE
Individual Total—E-file

2.26%

2

164,241

MAPE
Individual Total—Paper

2.72%

4

185,161

MAPE
Individual Total

2.81%

47,061

MAPE
Primary Total—E-file

5 Years
Ahead
N=4

232,222

MAPE
Primary Total—Paper

4 Years
Ahead
N=4

213,037

MAPE
Total Primary—Selected Returns *

3 Years
Ahead
N=4

57,850

MAPE
Grand Total—E-file

2 Years
Ahead
N=4

270,887

MAPE
Grand Total—Paper

1 Year
Ahead
N=4

1,182

*Some actuals shown in this table may differ from official counts reported elsewhere because they exclude certain return series only recently projected and whose accuracy cannot yet be evaluated.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, 2023 Publication 6292.

(7)

Table Notes
• Detail may not add to total due to rounding.
• Projected return counts are rounded to the nearest hundred; therefore, counts of 49 or fewer
are rounded to 0. However, some forms may report zero filings because they are associated
with only selected areas or their filing options were recently established or eliminated.
• Actual and projected return counts for the major categories are based on IRS Master File
processing, as recorded in the electronic versions of the Report of Returns Posted to the IRS
Master Files.
Table 1:
• Grand Total is the sum of Total Primary Returns and Supplemental Documents. The Total
Primary Returns category is the sum of all forms shown in the table, excluding Supplemental
Documents
• Individual Income Tax, Total is the sum of paper and electronic Forms 1040, 1040-SP, 1040-SR,
1040-NR, 1040-NR-EZ, 1040-PR, 1040-SS, and 1040-C. Forms 1040-SP (Declara ción de Im­
puestos de los Estados Unidos Sobre los Ingresos Personales) and Form 1040-SR (U.S. Tax
Return for Seniors) are new individual form types. More information about the forms can be
found in Publication 6187, Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns by Major Process­
ing Categories
• Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES includes paper and electronic Form 1040-ES.
• Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total includes paper and electronic Form 1041.
• Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES is the Estimated Income Tax for Estates and Trusts.
• Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total includes paper and electronic Forms 1065 and 1065-B.
• Corporation Income Tax, Total includes Forms 1120 (paper and electronic), 1120-C, 1120-F
(paper and electronic), 1120-H, 1120-FSC, 1120-L, 1120-ND, 1120-PC, 1120-REIT, 1120-RIC,
1120-SF, and 1120-S (paper and electronic). Form 1120-POL volumes are reported separately
under the forms for Political Organizations. Form 1120-IC-DISC is not included in these cor­
poration projections.
• Form 2553 is the Election by a Small Business Corporation (to file Form 1120-S).
• Form 1066 is the U.S. Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) Income Tax
Return.
• Estate includes Forms 706, 706-NA, 706-GS(D), and 706-GS(T).
• Gift, Form 709 is the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return.
• Employment Tax, Total includes paper and electronic Forms 940, 940-EZ, 940-PR, 941, 941­
PR, 941-SS, 943, 943-PR, 943-SS, 944, 945, and CT-1. CT-2 is excluded since the return
counts were only available on the non-Master File.
• Form 1042 is the Annual Withholding Tax Return for U.S. Source Income of Foreign Persons.
This form is assigned to the international area. It is sometimes considered an employment tax
return, but is listed separately in this publication.
• Exempt Organizations, Total includes Forms 990 (paper and electronic), 990-EZ (paper and
(8)

electronic), 990-N (only available electronically), 990-PF (paper and electronic), 990-T (paper
and electronic), 4720 (paper and electronic), and 5227 (paper and electronic starting in 2022).
Beginning in CY 2022, the Form 990 series must be filed electronically. Temporary waivers
are available for small business filers.
• Form 1041-A is the U.S. Information Return, Trust Accumulation of Charitable Amounts.
• Government Entities/Bonds includes Forms 8038, 8038-CP, 8038-G, 8038-GC, 8038-T, and
8328.
• Political Organizations, Total includes Forms 1120-POL (paper and electronic), 8871 (only
available electronically), and 8872 (paper and electronic). Beginning in CY 2022, Form 8872
must be filed electronically. Temporary waivers are available.
• Excise, Total includes Forms 11-C, 720 (paper and electronic), 730, 2290 (paper and elec­
tronic), and 8849 (paper and electronic).
• Form 5330 is the Return of Excise Taxes Related to Employee Benefit Plans.
• Form 5500-EZ is the Annual Return for One-Participant (Owners and Their Spouses) Retire­
ment Plan.
• Form 8752 is the Required Payment or Refund Under Section 7519.
• Supplemental Documents consist mainly of applications for extensions of time to file and filings
of amended tax returns which include Forms 1040-X (paper and electronic), 4868 (paper and
electronic), 1120-X, 5558, 7004 (paper and electronic), 8868 (paper and electronic), 941-X,
943-X, 944-X, 945-X, and CT-1-X.
Table 2:
• Individual filers classified as SB/SE reflect those taxpayers filing a Form 1040 return with
either a Schedule C, Schedule F, Schedule E or Form 2106 attached; or those filers with mail­
ing addresses or forms that are considered International. All other individual filers are classi­
fied as W&I.
• In general, corporation filers (Form 1120 series returns including Form 1120-S) and partner­
ship filers are classified as LB&I if their reported total assets are $10 million or more. Corpo­
ration and partnership returns with assets below $10 million are generally classified as SE/
SB. However, some partnership and corporation returns are also classified as part of the Tax
Exempt/Government Entities operating division.
• Nonprofit organizations, pension plan filers, tribal authorities, and governmental units com­
prise the TE/GE classification.
• EP returns include paper and electronic Forms 5500, 5500-EZ, and 5500-SF. Counts by op­
erating division in this table are based primarily upon the IRS Master File BOD indicator. This
indicator is a single, point in time, taxpayer level identifier (in contrast to a return-by-return
identifier).

(9)

Projection Publication Series

IRS Publication
Number

Typical Updates

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States

6292

Spring & Fall

Calendar Year Projections of Information and
Withholding Documents for the United States and
IRS Campuses

6961

Summer

Calendar Year Return Projections for the United
States and IRS Campuses

6186

Fall

Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns
by Major Processing Categories

6187

Fall

Calendar Year Return Projections by State

6149

Winter

Title

These publications are available electronically as noted on page iii of this
report at www.irs.gov/statistics.

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