Part A-supporting statement.wpd

SUPPORTING STATEMENT

For Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey

Forms SM-44(06)A, SM-44(06)AE, SM-44(06)AS, SM-72(06)A,

SM-44(00)FA, SM-44(00)FAE, SM-44(00)FAS, and SM-72(00)FA

Part A. Justification

1. Necessity of Information Collection

This request is for approval of an extension of the current expiration date to the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS).

The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey was developed in response to requests by government, business, and other users to provide an early indication of current retail trade activity at the United States level. MARTS also provides monthly sales of food service establishments and drinking places. Policymakers, such as the Federal Reserve Board, need to have the most timely estimates in order to anticipate economic trends and act accordingly. Data on sales from this survey provide the earliest possible look at consumer spending and are necessary for the calculation of the personal consumption portion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Without the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Census Bureau’s earliest measure of retail sales is the “preliminary” estimate from the full monthly sample, released about 40 days after the reference period. The U. S. Census Bureau conducts this voluntary survey under the authority of an Act of Congress, Title 13, United States Code, Section 182.

2. Needs and Uses

The Census Bureau tabulates the collected data to provide, with measured reliability, statistics on United States retail sales. These sales estimates, developed from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, are used by the Council of Economic Advisers, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Federal Reserve Board, and other government agencies, as well as business users in formulating economic decisions. These estimates have a high priority because of their timeliness. There would be approximately a one month delay in the availability of these data if this survey were not conducted.

Information quality is an integral part of the pre-dissemination review of information disseminated by the Census Bureau (fully described in the Census Bureau’s Information Quality Guidelines). Information quality is also integral to information collections conducted by the Census Bureau, and is incorporated into the clearance process required by the Paperwork Reduction Act.

3. Use of Information Technology

The Integrated Surveys Processing Network (ISPN) is used for all facets of the survey. Part of this network is the computer-assisted telephone interview system. This system is used to conduct follow-up operations for respondents not able to report by mail by the requested due date. Approximately twenty percent of our data are collected using this tool, which is designed to reduce call-backs to respondents. A computer edit is performed while the respondent is on the telephone and most data discrepancies are eliminated at that time. In addition, a laser printer facsimile machine connected to an 800 telephone line gives respondents the capability to FAX data to our collection facility on a 24-hour basis. The equipment expedites receipt of reports and decreases the number of telephone follow-up inquiries. In fact, about 75% of all data are received via facsimile, although some of this is prompted by a telephone call. The Internet and Electronic Data Interchange will not be used to collect information for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, but the survey does employ computer assisted interviewing methods to collect data. MARTS only collects one data item, sales. The survey has adopted company-centric collection methods by calling most of the respondents each month.

4. Efforts to Identify Duplication

Research with other government agencies, trade associations and data users via telephone conversations, meetings, trade journal articles, and written correspondence indicates that these data are not available from other sources on an ongoing basis. The MARTS sample is the only means of collecting, tabulating, and analyzing retail sales estimates and publishing United States level results by approximately the ninth working day following the data month. The data are not publicly available from non governmental or other governmental sources.

5. Minimizing Burden

Small-size and medium-size retailers are requested to participate for approximately two and one-half years after which they are replaced with a new panel of respondents. Smaller firms have less of a chance for selection due to our sampling procedure. Firms canvassed in this survey are not required to maintain additional records and carefully prepared estimates are acceptable if book figures are not readily available. The type of data requested is generally carried on existing company records. In addition, the ISPN system standardizes the telephone interviews with scripts for conducting follow-up for delinquent firms, status changes, etc., and permits on-line editing of response data, which reduces the number of call backs to respondents.

6. Consequences of Less Frequent Collection

Estimates from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey provide an early indication of retail sales trends in the United States. This enables government and business users to make important policy decisions on a timely basis. If the data were collected less frequently, retail sales data would not be available for policy decisions on a timely basis. This survey provides the earliest possible look at consumer spending and is necessary for input of the calculations of the Gross Domestic Product.

7. Special Circumstances

The collection of data is consistent with Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidelines with the following exception: because the survey is an economic indicator, respondents are asked to report on a monthly basis. Total sales data are released to the public approximately nine working days after the end of the data month. The final data collection closeout is on the seventh working day of the month. Because the timeliness of this survey is critical to its value, respondents are asked to reply to the questionnaire by the second business day of the month following the reference period. Generally, respondents have no problems reporting in the requested time frame because the forms ask only for data items usually carried on the existing company records.

8. Consultations Outside the Agency

The BEA is the Census Bureau’s main source of consultation on items on the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey and general survey content. Mr. Dennis Fixler is the Chief Statistician at BEA, phone number (202) 606-9607, and a primary source of consultation on the survey. In June 2006, we contacted Mr. Fixler concerning the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and BEA strongly supports the continued collection of data.

As required by 5 CFR 1320.8(d), the U. S. Census Bureau issued a pre-submission notice published in the Federal Register, dated April 10, 2006, Vol. 71, pg. 18065. We received one letter of support for the MARTS from BEA in response to the notice (see Attachment 11).

9. Paying Respondents

The Census Bureau does not pay respondents or provide them gifts for participating in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey.

10. Assurance of Confidentiality

Data collected in this survey are confidential under the authority of an Act of Congress, Title 13, United States Code, Section 9. Only persons sworn to uphold the confidentiality of Census Bureau information may see the questionnaires and may use them only for statistical purposes. Additionally, all reports are immune from legal process. Respondents are advised of this and are told that the survey is voluntary in a letter that accompanies the initial report form (See Attachments 9 and 10).

11. Justification of Sensitive Questions

The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey requests only financial data from business firms. These requests are for company totals, and such data are normally maintained on the firm’s records as part of routine accounting practices. Questions asked are not of a sensitive nature.

12. Estimate of Hour Burden

There are approximately 4,500 respondents who report each month. Based on responses given by a cross section sample of respondents, which includes large-size and small-size companies, the estimated burden is 5 minutes per response, which equates to an annual response burden of 4,500 hours.

Annual Hrs.

Monthly Responses Annual Hrs. Per Response

Workload Per Respondent Response Response Burden

4,500 12 54,000 .0833 4,500

The estimated annual cost to respondents is $112,950 based on the median hourly salary of $25.10 for accountants and auditors. (U. S. Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics - Occupational Employment Statistics 2005, where $25.10 represents the median hourly wage of the full-time wage and salary earnings of accountants and auditors)

http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes132011.htm

13. Estimate of Cost Burden

We do not expect respondents to incur any costs other than that of their time to respond. The information requested is of the type and scope normally carried in company records and no special hardware or accounting software or system is necessary to provide answers to this information collection. Therefore, respondents are not expected to incur any capital and start-up costs or system maintenance costs in responding. Further, purchasing of outside accounting or information collection services, if performed by the respondent, is part of usual and customary business practices and not specifically required for this information collection.

14. Cost to Federal Government

The total cost to the Federal Government for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey in fiscal year 2006 is expected to be $1,536,109, all borne by the Census Bureau.

15. Reasons for Changes in Burden

There is no change in burden.

16. Project Schedule

The report forms are mailed to approximately 25% of the respondents five working days before the end of the month and sent via facsimile to the other 75% on the last working day of the month with a requested return date of the second working day following the end of the data month. The sales estimates are collected by the National Processing Center in Jeffersonville, Indiana by the end of the sixth working day following the data month. The data are tabulated, edited, analyzed, and reviewed on the sixth, seventh, eighth and sometimes the ninth working days. The press release, “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services” is issued monthly by the Census Bureau as part of the Current Business Reports approximately nine working days after the close of the data period.

17. Request to Not Display Expiration Date

We wish to continue to display the expiration date.

18. Exceptions to the Certification

There are no exceptions.

19. Industry Classification Codes

In June 2001, we completely converted to NAICS (North American Industrial Classification System). The following are the 3-digit NAICS codes for the retailers and food service companies affected by the information collection:

NAICS Code DESCRIPTION

441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

442 Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores

443 Electronics and Appliance Stores

444 Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers

445 Food and Beverage Stores

446 Health and Personal Care Stores

447 Gasoline Stations

448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores

451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores

452 General Merchandise Stores

453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers

454 Non Store Retailers

722 Food Services and Drinking Places