Supporting Statement Part B (Final)

Supporting Statement for Paperwork Reduction Act Submission

U.S. Passport Demand Study Phase II

OMB No. 1405-XXXX, SV-2007-0021

Part B

B. Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods

1. The objective of this quick-response survey is to estimate the number of U.S. citizens who travel to Canada and Mexico by land and who plan to apply for a passport as a result of the change in U.S. law and regulations requiring a passport for entry back into the U.S. Passport demand will be estimated based on a telephone survey of a representative sample of U.S. citizens in households principally selected from areas with the largest numbers of existing and prospective, future land border crossers. The potential respondent universe will consist of all U.S. citizens who live in a household and who have crossed back into the U.S. at the Canadian or Mexican border by land in the last 12 months or plan to cross the border in the next 12 months. Within each such household, one adult U.S. citizen will be randomly selected to complete the survey. The size of this potential universe is not known at this point. However, the 2005 Demand Study results indicated that approximately 120 million land crossings take place each year involving about 25 million U.S. citizens. Available evidence indicates that about 50% of these individuals cross land borders frequently (at least once a year – and in many cases multiple times per month) while the remaining 50% cross land borders much less frequently (less than once per year). Under these assumptions, we estimate the potential universe for this proposed study is about 37.5 million U.S. citizens.

Statistical procedures will be used for sampling and respondent selection. The proposed study will screen for households containing at least one person who is a U.S. citizen and has crossed the border in the last twelve months or plans to cross the border in the next twelve months. As described above, we expect about 37.5 million U.S. citizens to cross the border in a 24-month period. Other U.S. citizens who do not meet these criteria may also plan to apply for passports but these individuals are not considered in-scope for this survey. The estimate of the demand for passports will be solely based on demands from U.S. citizens with past experience or near-future intentions of making land border crossings.

2. The following procedures will be employed for the collection of information.

To implement this design, all households in the U.S. will be stratified into two sampling strata: a high-density stratum and a low-density stratum, where density refers to the proportion of households that contain one or more persons that has crossed the Canadian and/or Mexican borders at a land POE in the last 12 months or plans to do so in the next 12 months. The two strata will be formed as follows: Around each of the POE, we will identify geographic areas (states, cities, counties) that are likely to house relatively large numbers of land border crossers. We expect that most of these areas will fall within a 200-mile radius around a large land POE. The high density stratum will be formed around all POE along each border. In many locations, smaller POE located near high-volume POE will automatically be included within the areas defined by proximity to the larger POE. To improve sampling efficiency, we will evaluate whether the smallest POE along each border should be allocated to the low-density stratum because the numbers of crossings and the populations of the surrounding areas are too small to influence the survey results. We anticipate that focusing on the eight to 10 largest volume POE on each border to generate the high-density stratum will permit us to capture the residences of at least 90 percent of the land border crossers along both borders. Once the high-density stratum is established around the high-volume POE, the remainder of the country will be assigned to the low-density stratum. The target areas will be defined in terms of states/cities/counties or in terms of entities that can be mapped accurately to area codes/exchanges (typically county boundaries). The size of each stratum will be known only after they are constructed. However, it is expected that the high-density stratum will include not more than approximately 30 million households and the low-density stratum will include about 95 million households.

For the purpose of sampling, four domains will be generated as shown below. A total of about 4,000 completed interviews divided across four analytical domains will be completed.

Eastern Western

Segment Segment Total

Canada 1,000 1,000 2,000

Mexico 1,000 1,000 2,000

Total 2,000 2,000 4,000

The Eastern and Western segments will be defined using pragmatic divisions of the land crossing volumes along each of the two borders. As a result, the final distribution of completed interviews may somewhat differ from the equal allocations shown above.

For each of the four domains (Canada/Mexico and Eastern/Western segments), the geographic areas will be stratified into high and low density strata and sufficient sample size will be allocated to each of these areas to produce the required number of completed interviews. We will select RDD samples independently for each stratum. The sample will be obtained using list assisted telephone sampling deign. Assuming a statistical design effect of about 1.25, the number of interviews as presented in the table above will ensure a precision of about + 3.5 percentage points for estimation of a proportion around 50% for each of the analytical domains. However, the exact value of the design effect could be higher thereby reducing the effective sample size. For national estimates based on 4,000 completed interviews, the margin of error is not likely to exceed +3 percentage points and is more likely to be less than + 2 percentage points.

As allocated, the yield of interviews with land border crossers in the low-density stratum will be very small compared to that for the high-density stratum. If the incidence rate for this stratum is extremely low (e.g., less than 5 percent), it may be statistically and operationally optimal to restrict data collection in the low-density stratum and redirect resources to enhancing the response rates and data quality for the high-density stratum.

Data will be collected using a telephone survey of approximately 10 minutes duration. A “five-plus-five” call design (up to five calls to establish contacts with an eligible adult at the sampled household and up to five more calls to complete the interview) will be used to complete about 4,000 interviews over a period of about 4 to 6 weeks.

3. The task of completing about 4,000 surveys for this study must be done in a relatively short period of time (4 to 6 weeks). As a result, it may not be feasible to apply some of the methods (such as advance letters, rigorous refusal conversion techniques etc.) that are known to have a positive impact on the response rates. However, within the time constraint, all possible steps will be taken to help increase the response rate for this study.

All supervisors and interviewers assigned to this study will be chosen using a highly discriminating selection interview explicitly for their communications skills. Moreover, all interviewers assigned to this study will have had recent prior experience conducting CATI surveys of the general public on important issues. This approach will avoid the cost of providing general interviewer training and will permit focusing training strictly on the questionnaire and sampling procedures for this study.

In addition to the impact of training protocols on promoting quality in data collection, a systematic sample of each interviewer’s work will be monitored in real time using unobtrusive technology that permits the monitor both to hear the interview transaction and to view the interviewer’s keystrokes as responses are recorded. The sampling rate for monitoring interviews starts high during the first week of calls and is reduced during the field period (but never stopped) so that a total of 5 to 10 percent of each interviewer’s work is monitored across the entire survey.

After each monitoring session, supervisors will review the interviewer’s performance, not only pointing out any deficiencies and providing specific guidance to ensure that quality goals are met or exceeded, but also recognizing and praising the excellent performance of interviewers. Supervisors will hold debriefing sessions with small groups of the interviewing staff concerning the progress of the data collection effort. These sessions are designed to identify any systematic problems with authorized data collection procedures that may be impeding attainment of study goals, to develop effective solutions to such problems, and to fine tune survey procedures to ensure high levels of respondent cooperation while also promoting high efficiency in all aspects of the field effort.

Efforts will also be made to convert refusals to the extent possible and thereby reduce the effect of non-response. While “hard” refusals (those who swear at the interviewer, ask to be taken off our list, or threaten the interviewer in any way) will not be recontacted, those who were “soft” refusals (indicating they are not interested, don’t do surveys, or prefer not to participate) will receive additional calls for completing the survey.

A draft questionnaire is attached to this submission.

4. Questionnaires and procedures will be tested in several ways. The questionnaire will be internally pre-tested by DoS and contractor personnel for timing, content and clarity. Although the questionnaire is very brief and not expected to present difficulties, a review using cognitive laboratory testing methods (viewing the respondent as they answer questions, follow-up probing questions to ensure understanding as intended of the questions, etc.) involving fewer than ten participants will be undertaken to examine the comprehensibility, structure and order of survey items.

Assuming that OMB approval is received, Gallup proposes a formal pre-test of the survey instrument be conducted with a sample of 50 households in the high-density stratum (25 on each border) to confirm that the screening questions and procedures and all items in the main survey questionnaire are working as intended. Although the pre-test will be designed as a confirmatory procedure, if any issues are uncovered with survey instructions, item wording, or response categories during the process, revisions will be proposed and incorporated into the final survey materials upon receipt of agency approval. In the event that a formal pre-test is not possible given the time constraints, Gallup will conduct the standard 9 pre-test interviews to assess the operation of the questionnaire.

5. The Gallup Organization developed the survey design and will be responsible for collecting, processing and analyzing the data and presenting findings to CA/PPT. The following individuals were consulted in developing the survey design, the sampling plan, and statistical aspect of the study.

Dr. Manas Chattopadhyay Dr. Cheoleon Lee

Chief Statistician Sr. Statistical Analyst

The Gallup Organization The Gallup Organization

901 F Street, NW 901 F Street, NW

Washington, D.C. 20004 Washington, D.C. 20004

202-715-3179 202-715-3127

Dr. Sameer Abraham Calvin Jones, ABD

Partner & Managing Research Director Sr. Statistical & Research Consultant

The Gallup Organization Statistical and Evaluation Research

Government Group 24190 Lenah Woods Place

901 F Street, NW Aldie, VA 20105

Washington, D.C. 20004 703-957-4110

202-715-3180

Dawn Royal, M.A.

Engagement Manager

The Gallup Organization

901 F Street, NW

Washington, D.C.20004

248-936-4152