Supporting Statement B (1220-0032)

Supporting Statement for Request for OMB Approval

Annual Refiling Survey

B. COLLECTION OF INFORMATION EMPLOYING STATISTICAL METHODS

1a. Universe

The universe for the ARS survey includes all employers subject to State UI laws in all 50 states, Washington D.C., Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. It also includes Federal agencies whose employees are covered by UCFE. This will result in a universe of approximately 9 million business establishments. The most current QCEW file for each State serves as the ARS sampling frame.

b. Sample Size

The survey is designed so that roughly one-fourth of the approximately 9 million reporting units will be sampled each year.

2a. Sample Allocation and Selection Procedures

The sampling frame used by each State will be the most current QCEW file. A schedule was developed to balance the workload as evenly as possible so that around one-fourth of the businesses are surveyed each year.

The selection criterion is based on the EIN of the respondent, which provides a more random sample across all industries. The seventh and eighth positions of the nine-digit EIN are examined with ranges set for respondents to be surveyed. If the EIN is blank and unavailable, a range of digits within the UI account number will be used.

b. Estimation Procedure

These data are being collected to ensure that the longitudinal QCEW data and the QCEW Report have the appropriate industrial and geographical codes. After data are edited and reconciled for apparent inconsistencies and completeness, these data will be the micro data on the longitudinal QCEW data. Estimates of totals at higher tabulation levels for the QCEW Report will be the sum of the appropriate micro level data. Since this is a census, the estimates are not subject to any sampling error. Therefore, no standard errors will be calculated.

c. Accuracy

Because a census is being conducted, the estimates are not subjected to any sampling error.

d. Problems

There are no unusual problems requiring specialized sampling procedures.

e. Frequency

This survey will consist of a four-year cycle, with approximately one-fourth of all business establishments sampled each year. Establishments assigned a NAICS code 999999 (Nonclassifiable Establishments) are surveyed annually.

3a. Response

During FY 2007, States were required to attain a 75% response rate in establishments or 80% employment. To maximize the response rate for this survey, the BLS 3023-NVS form has recently been modified to ease the burden of responding.

Two non-response follow-up mailings of the ARS forms and cover letters and telephone contact of key non-respondents are used to increase the response rates.

During FY 2007, all States were able to attain either a 75% response rate in establishments or 80% employment. The vast majority of States attained both goals. Overall, the average response rate was 83.3% in establishments and 84.7% employment.

b. Non-response Adjustment

Establishments that fail to respond after extensive follow-up efforts will be assigned NAICS codes by a nonrespondent code assignment program. The nonrespondent code assignment program will assign NAICS codes based on the distribution of those codes across other establishments with the same NAICS codes and other characteristics. States may review system-assigned NAICS codes and may overlay these with codes they have assigned.

c. Reliability

Because this survey is a census, no sampling errors will be calculated.

To control non-sampling errors, quality control procedures are incorporated into the survey's design. These procedures include follow-up of all non-respondents and validation of all edit failures. The States and the BLS regional offices also receive industrial coding training and procedural assistance in conducting this survey. Regional offices conduct yearly quality assurance reviews in each State.

Automated ARS processing systems are used for several tasks, such as selecting the employers to be surveyed each year, preparing mailings, and editing the data. These systems further reduce the incidence and impact of non-sampling errors.

4. Tests

Since this is an ongoing survey with minor modification, no tests have been conducted.

5. Statistical Responsibility

Ms. Shail Butani, Division Chief of the Statistical Methods Staff, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics is responsible for the statistical aspects of this survey. Her telephone number is (202) 691-6347.

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