LBC Supporting statement (30-day)

Supporting Statement for Paperwork Reduction Act Submission

U.S. Passport Demand Study Phase II

OMB No. 1405-0177, SV-2007-0021

A. Justification

1. The U.S. border management community is tasked with the protection of the U.S. and its territories from foreign threats, the enforcement of immigration and customs laws, and the promotion of economic prosperity for the U.S. and its allies. The Department of State (DoS) plays a vital role in this community through several offices, including its Bureau of Consular Affairs’ Passport Services Directorate (CA/PPT). CA/PPT is primarily responsible for issuing U.S. passports to any U.S. national who applies and meets all requirements.

Recent events within the U.S. have placed added emphasis within the border management community on its responsibility to protect the country and its territories from threats to national security. Given that the number of crossings into the U.S., currently estimated at more than 500 million per year, is expected to increase dramatically in the future, various Government agencies are intensifying their efforts to better protect the more than 300 air, land and sea ports of entry (POE) into the country.

Section 7209 of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA), enacted on December 17, 2004, requires the Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS), in consultation with the Secretary of State, to develop expeditiously, and implement a plan to require U.S. citizens and certain other categories of individuals to present a passport or other sufficient documentation of identity and citizenship when entering the U.S. This law has had significant effect on travel to Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean, which are the most common destinations for U.S. citizens that currently do not require a passport for entry. Further, confusion regarding new requirements, changing travel behavior due to economic conditions and globalization, the proposed introduction of the Passport Card, and increasing non-travel-related need for passports, have made all previous methods for forecasting passport demand less reliable.

Land border crossings represent the largest number of U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology (U.S. VISIT) Customs and Border Protection (CBP) inspections. Early data suggests that this population may have the greatest impact on passport demand. The 2007 Gallup Land Border Survey identified a population of 33 million U.S. citizens who cross U.S. borders by land. From this population, the study identified a possible eight million additional passport applications in addition to the projected base passport demand. This would result in between 29 million and 36 million total passport applications for FY 2008.

Given these new estimates for passport demand, CA/PPT is working to increase and manage its personnel and capital resources for the next several years. Additionally, Congress, DoS, and DHS are considering policy options with regard to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative implementation date and the Passport Card release date, as well as how these policies can be adapted to help manage demand. In support of these efforts, CA/PPT plans to conduct additional Land Border Crosser Surveys over the next two years. This additional gathering of data will provide the opportunity to refine volume and timing estimates of demand, and will help gauge public reaction to policy changes. Failure to prepare for this demand could result in further delays in passport issuance and severely affect CA/PPT’s ability to meet the public demand for passports.

2. The purpose of this full probability Random-Digit-Dial (RDD) telephone survey, taken of a representative sample of U.S. households selected from areas with the largest numbers of land border crossers, is to establish an accurate estimate of U.S. nationals who will require a new passport for cross-border travel (land travel between Mexico and the U.S. as well as Canada and the U.S.) over the next several years, and especially within the next six to twelve months.

CA/PPT is faced with the challenge of balancing the level of precision required in any demand estimate with the time and resources that will be required to achieve that level of precision. CA/PPT developed and reviewed several alternative primary data collection alternatives for the purpose of planning future production capacity and it determined that primary data collection is the most reliable way to meet its needs. The survey will be conducted with a 95% confidence level that assumes the error of the estimate will be within approximately 2% of the true number of new passports needed. The survey will meet data needs with enough precision to plan for appropriate staffing and budget for the coming years, relative to the impending Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI) Phase II requirements for land border crossings, and the availability of the Passport Card product.

3. All interviews will be conducted using a state-of-the-art Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. This system allows interviewers to enter responses directly into a computer, which instantaneously feeds the information from each station to a mainframe computer. The CATI system is programmed to control branching and skipping automatically within the interview (where a respondent receives certain questions based on responses to earlier questions).

An RDD telephone sample will be administered using an advanced proprietary sample management system that keeps track of the frequency and timing of calls automatically to allow for the most efficient sample management possible. Autodialers will be utilized to dial telephone numbers. This system does not wait for a “live” voice on the line that can leave a blank time before an interviewer addresses the potential respondent, as occurs in similar systems. Rather, in this system, an interviewer is on the line as soon as a “ring” is detected, thus making dialing of telephone numbers more efficient, and improving the likelihood that the respondent will accept the call.

DoS and Gallup endeavor to provide an electronic option for data collections and will investigate the use of information technologies for future and ongoing demand studies to allow respondents to directly input their responses. However, the principal method of information collection will be one-on-one telephone interviews with the interviewer directly entering the data into the computer to provide for digital end-to-end business processing from that point.

4. This collection will not duplicate any other information collection. DoS has attempted to establish an accurate demand figure by an extensive review of all known statistical border management databases. There is currently no method for determining the unique number of land crossings, passport possession or passport demand of land travelers other than asking the potential travelers who are U.S. citizens about their border crossing behavior or intentions, as well as whether they possess valid passports. CA/PPT undertook an initial survey in July 2005 because of the lack of existing data. While that study was useful at that time for CA/PPT’s early planning needs, the results are now dated and have proven to be unreliable estimates for current and future demand. In addition to the dated nature of the study, the previous study also was undertaken with a different methodology from this proposed study, in that it used in-person interviews with a sample of people crossing back into the U.S. at a handful of land border crossings. This previous survey collected only information from past land border crossers, did not include any future projected crossings, and only included respondents who actually made land crossings during a 3-day period in mid-July of 2005. CA/PPT was also unable to obtain approval to survey from the private owners of two of the largest Canadian land POE: the Detroit Ambassador Bridge and Detroit Tunnel, because there existed no appropriate staging area to conduct the survey and the owners wanted to avoid slowing traffic across the border.

The current study has the following features:

• Estimating passport demand based on a representative sample of existing and prospective future land border crossers, selected from areas with the largest numbers of land border crossers, rather than basing estimates only on responses from individuals who actually made land crossings during a 3-day period;

• Avoiding the prospect of significant bias, which we faced in the 2005 study because the private owners of two of the highest volume Canadian land POE in Michigan refused to participate;

• Conducting a telephone survey with an approximate duration of 10 minutes (compared to 1.5 minutes for the 2005 study) that will permit the collection of more complete and reliable information on:

  • The past and likely future border crossing intentions of a sample of households in areas with the largest numbers of land border crossers, and

  • The likely timing of passport applications and renewals for all U.S. citizen members of sampled households;

• Including survey questions about demand for new passports, passport renewals, and Passport Cards, which are planned for use to re-enter the U.S. under the terms of the WHTI;

• Using a full probability RDD sample design that will support accurate statistical weighting and legitimate calculations of sampling variances and margins of error for all survey estimates; and

• Collecting data from sufficiently large samples of households located in areas with the largest numbers of land border crossers to support estimates of regional and other sub-national estimates of passport demand.

5. Not applicable. The collection of information does not involve small businesses or other small entities.

6. Survey data is required in order to establish an accurate estimate of the volume and timing of passport applications for the purposing of land border crossings. Without such information, CA/PPT will not be able to make duly informed decisions on hiring and training staff, or building up other resources and infrastructure to handle the increased demand for passports. If the survey is not conducted, CA/PPT will not have reliable information to inform resource-related decisions. This could result in the underestimation of demand, delayed passport issuance, adverse customer service, and excessive resource allocation, which would waste taxpayer money and Department resources.

7. Not applicable. This collection of information is a voluntary survey. Respondents will be informed that the survey is not mandatory, that the information is confidential, and that they may decline to participate. (Names, addresses, and other personal identification information will not be collected.)

8. A notice for emergency OMB review was published in the Federal Register on July 3, 2007, in accordance with 5 C.F.R. § 1320.13. No public comments were received on the emergency review notice or on the data collection itself.

9. Based on OMB’s request during the emergency submission process, Gallup added a non-response bias survey, which continues data collection for a period of approximately four weeks following the basic data collection. During this period, Gallup phones a sample of households (approximately 200) that refused to participate in the survey and offers them a $20 incentive to answer a portion of the survey questions. The purpose is to determine if non-respondents had different behavior than willing respondents to the main survey.

10. The Gallup Organization or a similar organization will collect all of the data using the methodology described herein. Respondents will be told at the onset of the interview that the data will be strictly confidential and that identifying information will not be released outside of the organization. This notice will be repeated to the respondent prior to asking respondents for any demographic information. All interviewers will sign statements of confidentiality in which they promise not to reveal the results of any interview.

As an additional safeguard, the names of the respondents are not collected during the course of the interview, and the telephone numbers are separated from the survey data prior to analysis. All questionnaires, other records, and database entries will be identified only by case identification numbers. These procedures ensure that data on individual respondents cannot be traced to their sources.

The Gallup Organization claims that in nearly 70 years of existence, it has never been involved in an instance of breach of confidentiality. A copy of Gallup’s “Respondent Privacy and Confidentiality Protections” is attached at the end of this document.

11. Not applicable. The collection of information does not ask questions of a sensitive nature.

12. The survey will be conducted with a 95% confidence level that assumes the error of the estimate will be within approximately 2% of the true number of new passports needed over the next several years. To achieve this level of confidence, the surveyor will gather data from approximately 4,000 respondent households. Each survey is estimated to be no more than 10 minutes in length, including any screening for qualification. Based on the time to conduct an interview and the total number of interviews (4,000), the total hourly burden time for the responding public to the complete one instance of the Land Border Crosser survey is estimated to be 667 hours. CA/PPT plans to conduct two LBC surveys per year, so total annual burden is 1,334 hours.

13. Not applicable. There is no cost burden to respondents associated with this collection.

14. The estimated cost to the Federal Government is $1,105,000 per LBC survey. As DoS plans to implement up to two LBC surveys per year, potential annual cost to DoS is $2,210,000. A breakdown of the estimated cost and time to implement the survey can be found below.

Item	Description	Cost
1	Draft Survey Questionnaire	$ 50,000
2	OMB Submission Package	$ 40,000
3	Final Survey Questionnaire (English and Spanish)	$ 40,000
4	Initial Data Set Following Survey Completion	$ 600,000
5	Draft Report of Passport Demand Study Results	$ 40,000
6	Final Report of Passport Demand Study Results	$ 40,000
7	Executive Briefings	$ 85,000
8	Non-Response Bias Study	$ 210,000
Total		$1,105,000

Summary of Methodology. Telephone interview conducted with U.S. citizens in a representative sample of U.S. households principally selected from areas with the largest numbers of land border crossers, including 2,000 interviews to be completed for likely Canadian land border crossers and 2,000 interviews completed for likely Mexican land border crossers. These completed interviews will include residents of “high density” areas, or those within a close proximity to land border crossings, as well as some “low density” areas, captured by taking a much smaller sample.

Deliverables.

• Survey Questionnaire (English & Spanish)

• OMB Supporting Documents

• Data File

• Draft Report

• Final Report

• Executive Briefing

• Meetings and Briefings

Timeframe Required. Four to six weeks following OMB approval for an initial data set; three months from the survey start date to complete all reporting and briefings.

Type of Contract: Firm Fixed Price

15. The costs will remain largely the same as in the previous LBC collection, as the surveyor plans to continue with the 7x7 call design and non-response bias survey. OMB required that these elements be added previously. The time burden per survey will also remain the same, however DoS will conduct two LBC surveys per year. This additional survey resulted in an increase of 667 hours.

16. Not applicable. The collection of information will not be published for statistical use. The information collection will be used to establish an accurate estimate of U.S. citizens who plan to apply for a passport for cross-border travel (land travel between Mexico and the U.S. as well as Canada and the U.S.).

17. The U.S. Passport Demand Study Phase II will be a voluntary telephone (verbal) interview, and the respondents will not be required to fill out any form. The Department will make the OMB expiration date available to respondents during the interview process.

18. Not applicable. We are not requesting any exceptions to the certification statement identified in Item 19 "Certification for Paperwork Reduction Act Submissions," of OMB Form 83-I.

B. Collections of Information Employing Statistical Methods

1. The objective of this survey is to estimate the number of U.S. citizens who travel to Canada and Mexico by land and who plan to apply for a passport as a result of the change in U.S. law and regulations requiring a passport for entry back into the U.S. Passport demand will be estimated based on a telephone survey of a representative sample of U.S. citizens in households, which will be selected principally from areas with the largest numbers of existing and prospective future land border crossers. The potential respondent universe will consist of all U.S. citizens who live in a household and who have crossed back into the U.S. at the Canadian or Mexican border by land in the previous 12 months or plan to cross the border in the next 12 months. Within each such household, one adult U.S. citizen will be selected randomly to complete the survey. The 2007 LBC survey results indicated that approximately 33 million U.S. citizens cross a U.S. land border each year.

Statistical procedures will be used for sampling and respondent selection. The proposed study will screen for households containing at least one person who is a U.S. citizen and has crossed the border in the previous twelve months or plans to cross the border in the next twelve months. As described above, we expect about 33 million U.S. citizens to cross the border in a 24-month period. Other U.S. citizens who do not meet these criteria may also plan to apply for passports, but these individuals are not considered within the scope of this survey as they are unlikely to be able to accurately forecast their future travel behavior. The estimate of the demand for passports will be based solely on demands from U.S. citizens with past experience or near-future intentions of making land border crossings.

2. The following procedures will be employed for the collection of information.

To implement this design, all households in the U.S. will be stratified into two sampling strata: a high-density stratum and a low-density stratum, where density refers to the proportion of households that contain one or more persons that have crossed the Canadian and/or Mexican borders at a land POE in the last 12 months or plans to do so in the next 12 months. The two strata will be formed as follows: Around each of the POE, we will identify geographic areas (states, cities, counties) that are likely to house relatively large numbers of land border crossers. We expect that most of these areas will fall within a 200-mile radius of a large land POE. The high density stratum will be formed around all POE along each border. In many locations, smaller POE located near high-volume POE will automatically be included within the areas defined by proximity to the larger POE. To improve sampling efficiency, we will evaluate whether the smallest POE along each border should be allocated to the low-density stratum, because the numbers of crossings and the populations of the surrounding areas may be too small to influence the survey results. We anticipate that focusing on the eight to 10 largest volume POE on each border to generate the high-density stratum will permit us to capture the residences of at least 90 percent of the land border crossers along both borders. Once the high-density stratum is established around the high-volume POE, the remainder of the country will be assigned to the low-density stratum. The target areas will be defined in terms of states/cities/counties or in terms of entities that can be mapped accurately to area codes/exchanges (typically county boundaries). The size, in terms of number of households, of each stratum will be known only after they are constructed. However, it is expected that the high-density stratum will include not more than approximately 30 million households and the low-density stratum will include about 95 million households.

For the purpose of sampling, four domains will be generated as shown below. A total of about 4,000 completed interviews divided across four analytical domains will be completed.

Eastern Western

Segment Segment Total

Canada 1,000 1,000 2,000

Mexico 1,000 1,000 2,000

Total 2,000 2,000 4,000

The Eastern and Western segments will be defined using pragmatic divisions of the land crossing volumes along each of the two borders. As a result, the final distribution of completed interviews may somewhat differ from the equal allocations shown above.

For each of the four domains (Canada/Mexico and Eastern/Western segments), the geographic areas will be stratified into high and low density strata and sufficient sample size will be allocated to each of these areas to produce the required number of completed interviews. We will select RDD samples independently for each stratum. The sample will be obtained using a list assisted telephone sampling design. Assuming a statistical design effect of about 1.25, the number of interviews as presented in the table above will ensure a precision of about + 3.5 percentage points, which creates an estimation of a proportion around 50% for each of the analytical domains. However, the exact value of the design effect could be higher, thereby reducing the effective sample size. For national estimates based on 4,000 completed interviews, the margin of error is not likely to exceed +3 percentage points and is more likely to be less than + 2 percentage points.

As allocated, the yield of interviews with land border crossers in the low-density stratum will be very small compared to that for the high-density stratum. If the incidence rate for this stratum is extremely low (e.g., less than 5 percent), it may be statistically and operationally optimal to restrict data collection in the low-density stratum and redirect resources to enhancing the response rates and data quality for the high-density stratum.

Data will be collected using a telephone survey of approximately 10 minutes duration. A “seven-plus-seven” call design (up to seven calls to establish contacts with an eligible adult at the sampled household and up to seven more calls to complete the interview) will be used to complete about 4,000 interviews over a period of about 6 to 8 weeks.

3. The task of completing about 4,000 surveys for this study must be done in a relatively short period of time (6 to 8 weeks). As a result, it may not be feasible to apply some of the methods (such as advance letters, rigorous refusal conversion techniques etc.) that are known to have a positive impact on the response rates. However, within the time constraint, all possible steps will be taken to help increase the response rate for this study.

All supervisors and interviewers assigned to this study will be chosen using a highly discriminating selection interview that favors strong communications skills. Moreover, all interviewers assigned to this study will have had recent prior experience conducting CATI surveys of the general public on important issues. This approach will avoid the cost of providing general interviewer training and will permit focusing training strictly on the questionnaire and sampling procedures for this study.

In addition to the impact of training protocols on promoting quality in data collection, a systematic sample of each interviewer’s work will be monitored in real time using unobtrusive technology that permits the monitor both to hear the interview transaction and to view the interviewer’s keystrokes as responses are recorded. The sampling rate for monitoring interviews starts high during the first week of calls and is reduced during the field period (but never stopped) so that a total of 5 to 10 percent of each interviewer’s work is monitored across the entire survey.

After each monitoring session, supervisors will review the interviewer’s performance by pointing out any deficiencies, providing specific guidance to ensure that quality goals are met or exceeded, as well as recognizing and praising the excellent performance of interviewers. Supervisors will hold debriefing sessions with small groups of the interviewing staff concerning the progress of the data collection effort. These sessions are designed to identify any systematic problems with authorized data collection procedures that may be impeding the attainment of the study’s goals, to develop effective solutions to such problems, and to fine tune survey procedures to ensure high levels of respondent cooperation while also promoting high efficiency in all aspects of the field effort.

Efforts will also be made to convert refusals to the extent possible and thereby reduce the effect of non-response. While “hard” refusals (those who swear at the interviewer, ask to be taken off our list, or threaten the interviewer in any way) will not be recontacted, those who were “soft” refusals (indicating they are not interested, don’t do surveys, or prefer not to participate) will receive additional calls for completing the survey.

Gallup will also perform a Non-response Bias Study. Given that Gallup anticipates achieving a 45% response rate for this study, it will conduct a more robust non-response bias study in accordance with OMB requirements. In a recent work, Groves¹ reports that there is no consistent relationship between response rates and non-response bias. As such, a lower response rate may not necessarily cause or result in non-response bias. However, it does not imply that this finding will be true in all circumstances. Gallup, therefore, will undertake a separate non-response bias study to examine the non-response patterns and to assess the potential for non-response bias in this survey once the primary data collection for it has been completed.

The pool of non-respondents for this study will be stratified into two groups: (i) Non-contacts and (ii) Refusals. Within each stratum, the goal will be to complete about 100 interviews in each group. Based on an anticipated response rate of around 7%, we plan to draw a total sample of approximately 3,000 for the non-response study. The sample size will be allocated proportionately across the two strata. Although it is difficult to predict the relative size of these two strata, we anticipate the non-contacts will account for about 60-70% of all non-respondents. The sample, within each stratum, will be allocated proportionately across these two groups.

The mode of data collection for the non-response study will be telephone using a 7x7 call design, with up to 7 calls devoted to contacting the household and up to 7 calls to interview the targeted respondent. All sample members will be offered a cash incentive of $20 to complete the telephone interview. A check will be mailed to the respondent’s household following completion of the survey along with a letter thanking them for their participation. The letter will be sent on Gallup letterhead under the signature of the Project Director. We anticipate a data collection period of about 4 to 6 weeks to complete the call design and achieve the targeted response rate.

The non-response bias analysis will involve examining (i) the representativeness of the sample of respondents for the target population and (ii) the difference between the survey estimates generated for the respondents and the non-respondents. In assessing representativeness, we will conduct an analysis of demographic characteristics by geographical area using census or similar external data sources. In comparing the survey estimates, we will use the weighted estimates for the two groups (respondents from the main study and non-respondents from the non-response bias study). If necessary, we may investigate the suitability of examining select subgroups within the group of respondents for the main study, for the purpose of better understanding the non-response patterns. We may, for example, examine: (i) those who are "easiest to reach and interview" as measured by records of calls in our CATI system; (ii) those who are "more difficult to reach" (require more callbacks) compared to group (i) above. The goal of the non-response bias study will be to detect whether significant and policy-relevant differences exist between the survey estimates for respondents and the non-respondents. If such differences are found, we will explore the necessity of making adjustments to the survey estimates to minimize the non-response bias in the main study findings.

4. Questionnaires and procedures will be tested in several ways. The questionnaire will be internally pre-tested by DoS and contractor personnel for timing, content and clarity. Although the questionnaire is very brief and not expected to present difficulties, a review using cognitive laboratory testing methods (viewing the respondent as he or she answers questions, follow-up probing questions to ensure understanding as intended of the questions, etc.) involving fewer than ten participants will be undertaken to examine the comprehensibility, structure and order of survey items.

Gallup will also engage in a formal pre-test of the survey instrument, to be conducted with a sample of 50 households in the high-density stratum (25 on each border) to confirm that the screening questions and procedures, as well as all items in the main survey questionnaire are working as intended. Although the pre-test will be designed as a confirmatory procedure, if any issues are uncovered with survey instructions, item wording, or response categories during the process, revisions will be proposed and incorporated into the final survey materials upon receipt of agency approval. In the event that a formal pre-test is not possible given the time constraints, Gallup will conduct the standard 9 pre-test interviews to assess the operation of the questionnaire.

5. The Gallup Organization developed the survey design and will be responsible for collecting, processing and analyzing the data and presenting findings to CA/PPT. The following individuals were consulted in developing the survey design, the sampling plan, and statistical aspect of the study.

Dr. Manas Chattopadhyay Dr. Cheoleon Lee

Chief Statistician Sr. Statistical Analyst

The Gallup Organization The Gallup Organization

901 F Street, NW 901 F Street, NW

Washington, D.C. 20004 Washington, D.C. 20004

202-715-3179 202-715-3127

Dr. Sameer Abraham Calvin Jones, ABD

Partner & Managing Research Director Sr. Statistical & Research Consultant

The Gallup Organization Statistical and Evaluation Research

Government Group 24190 Lenah Woods Place

901 F Street, NW Aldie, VA 20105

Washington, D.C. 20004 703-957-4110

202-715-3180

Dawn Royal, M.A.

Engagement Manager

The Gallup Organization

901 F Street, NW

Washington, D.C.20004

248-936-4152

1 Groves, Robert M. 2006. “Nonresponse rates and Nonresponse Bias in Household Surveys.” Public Opinion Quarterly 70: 646-675.

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