Potato Stocks Release

Potato
Stocks
Washington, D.C.

Released January 15, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on Potato Stocks call Faye Propsom at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Potato Stocks Down 9 Percent From January 2008
The 13 major potato States held 213 million cwt of potatoes in storage January 1, 2009, down 9 percent from a year ago
and 6 percent below January 1, 2007. Potatoes in storage accounted for 58 percent of the 2008 fall storage States'
production, down 1 point from January 1, 2008. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 3.30 million cwt on January 1, 2009,
down 3 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County,
Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 155 million cwt, was 5 percent below both January 1, 2008 and 2007. Season-to-date
shrink and loss, at 14.8 million cwt, was down 10 percent from the same date in 2008 and 8 percent below 2007.
Processors in the 9 major States have used 87.3 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 3 percent from the same
period last year and down 4 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 14.6 million cwt of the total
processing, down 13 percent from last year and 24 percent below the same period in 2007.
Beginning this month, previous month's stocks, shrinkage, and dehydration estimates are open for revisions. Any
changes will be indicated with a footnote.

Pot 1-2 (1-09)

Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 1999-2008
Crop
Year
1999 1
2000 1
2001 1
2002 1
2003 1
2004 1
2005
2006
2007
2008 2
1
2

Production

Dec 1

Jan 1

Feb 1

Mar 1

Apr 1

May 1

Jun 1

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

420,567
458,827
387,033
407,085
403,566
404,017
375,118
389,527
397,753
367,715

275,100
310,300
258,750
264,485
267,900
271,100
253,800
259,300
267,500
243,300

239,910
275,270
224,680
231,490
233,590
236,700
220,500
226,100
234,100
212,500

207,150
234,260
192,090
199,020
200,230
203,490
189,100
192,600
200,500

169,620
197,670
158,590
165,210
166,280
168,020
155,500
159,700
165,000

128,410
153,520
119,950
125,770
126,110
128,900
115,700
121,000
127,000

86,915
109,160
81,200
83,040
85,000
88,550
75,900
79,050
85,460

47,220
61,270
42,990
45,880
46,020
51,700
41,560
44,460
51,920

15 major States.
December 1, 2008 stocks revised.

Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2006-2008 1
State and
Crop Year
ID & OR-Mal
2006
2007
2008

Dec 1

Jan 1

Feb 1

Mar 1

Apr 1

May 1

Jun 1

Season

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

27,090
26,230
22,360

34,070
33,250
28,980

41,350
40,310

48,940
48,660

56,650
55,460

63,680
63,000

71,220
70,700

85,630
88,030

1,755
1,700
1,635

2,360
2,170
2,240

2,910
2,815

3,465
3,440

4,185
3,990

4,810
4,670

5,470
5,240

7,635
7,640

WA & OR-Oth
2006
2007
2008

30,980
30,595
32,570

37,060
36,940
37,750

42,190
42,350

49,930
50,165

56,690
57,160

63,170
67,690

70,410
72,380

77,355
82,770

Other Sts 4
2006
2007
2008

14,270
15,040
15,195

17,695
17,535
18,375

21,290
20,755

24,545
23,900

28,040
26,650

31,370
29,710

34,830
32,600

43,565
39,430

Total
2006
2007
2008 3

74,095
73,565
71,760

91,185
89,895
87,345

107,740
106,230

126,880
126,165

145,565
143,260

163,030
165,070

181,930
180,920

214,185
217,870

Dehydrated 5
2006
2007
2008

14,590
12,815
10,745

19,250
16,785
14,565

23,635
21,040

27,885
25,350

32,210
29,500

36,480
33,650

40,915
37,975

49,370
46,760

ME 2
2006
2007
2008 3

1
2
3
4
5

Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities
used for potato chips in ME and WI.
Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
December revised.
CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI.
Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI.

Potato Stocks
January 2009

2

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States,
January 1, 2008-2009 1
Crop of 2007
State

Crop of 2008

Prod

Stocks
Jan 1,
2008

%
of
Prod

Prod

Stocks
Dec 1,
2008

Stocks
Jan 1,
2009

Jan %
of
Prod

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

Percent

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

Percent

CA
CO
ID
ME 2
MI 2
MN
MT 2
NE 2
NY
ND
OR 2
WA
WI

3,792
20,981
130,010
16,668
14,700
21,560
3,696
8,217
5,216
23,660
20,293
100,800
28,160

1,600
13,200
82,000
11,400
7,000
11,600
3,400
4,500
2,100
12,500
16,100
52,000
16,700

42
63
63
68
48
54
92
55
40
53
79
52
59

3,939
21,338
114,805
14,769
14,875
20,400
3,465
8,342
5,696
22,680
18,676
93,000
25,730

1,900
16,400
83,000
11,300
8,300
13,000
3,400
5,500
2,600
14,800
16,100
49,500
17,500

1,500
14,500
73,500
10,000
6,500
11,300
3,300
4,900
1,800
12,500
14,100
43,800
14,800

38
68
64
68
44
55
95
59
32
55
75
47
58

13 States 2

397,753

234,100

59

367,715

243,300

212,500

58

4,000

3,300

Klamath Basin 3
1
2
3

3,400

Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant the following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2008 totaled 24.5
million cwt.
December 1, 2008 stocks revised.
Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR.

Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks,
10 Selected States, January 1, 2008-2009
Potato Types
State

Reds

Long Whites

Yellows

Russets

Jan
2008

Dec
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2008

Dec
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2008

Dec
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2008

Dec
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2008

Dec
2008

Jan
2009

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

4
2
3
1
12
16
13
1
3
2

3
2
2
1
9
5
15
1
3
5

3
2
2
1
8
4
14
1
3
4

3

1
1
41
87
2
92
7
6
5
15

3
1

1

1

43
86
5
69
13
6
4
33

1
1
43
83
3
89
7
7
5
12

11
1
2
1

8
1
11

13
1
1
1

82
94
51
12
83
2
69
91
85
65

85
95
54
11
89

8
1
11

11
1
3
1
1
4
1
1
1

85
95
52
15
86

4
1
7

11
1
3
1
2
6
1
1
1

69
90
80
83

70
91
80
81

4

4

3

10

9

9

3

3

3

2

2

2

81

82

82

CO
ID
ME
MI
MN
NY 1
ND
OR
WA
WI
10 St
Avg
1

Round Whites

December 2008 Revised.

Potato Stocks
January 2009

3

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

State

Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
13 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2005-2008 Crop Years
Farm Disposition
Total
Used
Where Grown
Crop
Stocks
Production
For
Year
Jan 1
Seed,
Feed,
Shrinkage
Fall
Home Use
and Loss
Seed
1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

Sold
1,000 Cwt

CA
331
480
372

2,975
3,390
3,420

1,200
1,140
1,060

1,650
2,056
2,236

20,060
19,490
17,685

7,370
7,875
6,930

1,230
1,188
945

7,800
8,200
8,700

109,258
119,527
120,365

11,200
12,800
11,400
10,000

1,264
1,236
1,172

242
228
195

1,183
1,482
800

14,030
16,270
15,820

13,910
14,190
14,700
14,875

6,200
6,300
7,000
6,500

1,044
961
1,046

182
180
185

1,728
1,800
1,115

12,000
12,210
13,400

2005
2006
2007
2008

18,450
21,250
21,560
20,400

11,100
11,600
11,600
11,300

1,040
1,190
946

140
250
118

1,600
1,700
1,112

15,890
18,450
19,450

2005
2006
2007
2008

3,445
3,518
3,696
3,465

3,300
3,300
3,400
3,300

244
270
273

156
180
172

210
130
227

3,079
3,208
3,297

2005
2006
2007
2008

8,245
8,730
8,217
8,342

4,700
4,900
4,500
4,900

515
521
497

231
200
186

834
775
716

7,180
7,755
7,315

2005
2006
2007
2008

5,226
5,700
5,216
5,696

2,200
2,200
2,100
1,800

453
460
432

100
100
94

491
480
370

4,635
5,120
4,752

2005
2006
2007
2008

3,306
3,870
3,792
3,939

1,300
1,500
1,600
1,500

249
210
279

2005
2006
2007
2008

22,910
22,686
20,981
21,338

15,000
15,200
13,200
14,500

1,498
1,480
1,482

2005
2006
2007
2008

118,288
128,915
130,010
114,805

75,500
80,000
82,000
73,500

2005
2006
2007
2008

15,455
17,385
16,668
14,769

2005
2006
2007
2008

CO

ID

ME

MI

MN

MT

NE

NY

--continued

Potato Stocks
January 2009

4

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

State

Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
13 Storage States and Fall Season States, 2005-2008 Crop Years (continued)
Farm Disposition
Total
Used
Where Grown
Crop
Stocks
Production
For
Year
Jan 1
Seed,
Feed,
Shrinkage
Fall
Home Use
and Loss
Seed
1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

Sold
1,000 Cwt

ND
2005
2006
2007
2008

20,500
25,480
23,660
22,680

11,500
15,000
12,500
12,500

1,900
1,853
1,577

240
240
240

1,810
2,290
2,220

18,450
22,950
21,200

2005
2006
2007
2008

22,023
18,533
20,293
18,676

16,500
13,900
16,100
14,100

837
880
863

255
260
193

1,392
1,020
1,220

20,376
17,253
18,825

2005
2006
2007
2008

95,480
89,900
100,800
93,000

46,500
42,500
52,000
43,800

3,900
4,290
3,875

240
240
236

6,000
5,500
6,500

89,240
84,160
95,564

2005
2006
2007
2008

27,880
29,370
28,160
25,730

15,500
16,900
16,700
14,800

1,452
1,430
1,548

300
245
250

1,380
1,925
1,505

26,200
27,200
26,405

2005
2006
2007
2008

378,732
389,527
397,753
367,715

220,500
226,100
234,100
212,500

21,766
22,656
20,920

4,516
4,451
3,874

26,409
27,838
27,093

343,373
356,983
367,498

2005
2006
2007
2008

383,563
399,176
406,800
376,386

22,415
23,337
21,547

4,545
4,482
3,899

27,115
28,576
27,796

351,083
365,863
375,823

OR

WA

WI

13 States

Fall States

Klamath Basin 1

2005
2006
2007
2008
1

3,400
3,400
3,300

Estimates began in December 2006. Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR.

Potato Stocks
January 2009

5

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses,
including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each
report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.3 percent of the total fall production.
Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 8.7 percent.

Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
United States, 2003-2008 1
Fall Potatoes
Crop
Year

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1

Production

Sold

Sold
as % of
Production

Not Sold

Not Sold
as % of
Production

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

Percent

1,000 Cwt

Percent

410,973
410,683
383,563
399,176
406,800
376,386

90.5
90.0
91.5
91.7
92.4

39,218
40,902
32,480
33,313
30,977

1,000 Cwt

9.5
10.0
8.5
8.3
7.6

26,687
24,768
25,659
26,437
24,512

Production revised in Field Crops, Final Estimates 2002 - 2007 publication released December 31, 2008. Disposition will be revised in
Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes, Final Estimates 2003 - 2007 publication, which will be released January 30, 2009.

Crop
Year

Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2005-2008
To
To
To
To
Jan 1
Feb 1
Mar 1
Apr 1

To
Dec 1
Million Cwt

2005
2006
2007
2008 1
1

371,755
369,781
351,083
365,863
375,823

Amount Used
for Seed
All Seasons
Following
Year

12.7
13.2
14.2
12.8

Million Cwt

15.0
16.1
16.4
14.8

Million Cwt

Million Cwt

16.8
18.4
18.4

18.4
20.4
20.2

Million Cwt

20.2
22.3
22.1

To
May 1

Total
Jun 1

Million Cwt

Million Cwt

22.0
24.0
24.0

23.7
25.5
25.3

December 1, 2008 shrink and loss revised.

Potato Stocks
January 2009

6

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States and United States,
2005-2007 Marketing Years
State

Marketing
Year

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

2005
2006
2007

6

4
9
9

14
15
12

22
11
11

10
15
10

11
10
8

12
11
9

12
12
9

8
9
11

7
5
11

3
4

2005
2006
2007

5
6
5

8
7
9

10
9
11

10
9
10

10
10
11

8
9
9

11
10
10

10
11
10

12
11
12

10
11
7

6
7
6

11
11
12

13
12
12

8
8
8

7
7
7

8
8
7

7
8
8

11
10
9

10
10
10

10
9
9

6
7
7

7
7
8

5
8
8

11
7
8

8
8
9

9
9
9

10
9
10

9
8
10

12
13
10

15
13
13

10
12
10

6
7
5

5
6
8

CA

CO

ID
2005
2006
2007

2
3
3

ME
2005
2006
2007
MI
2005
2006
2007

1
1
3

8
9
7

11
12
10

13
13
11

12
12
11

12
12
12

12
12
11

10
7
10

10
11
9

8
7
8

3
4
6

2

2005
2006
2007

7
8
10

6
7
9

4
7
8

7
7
8

15
7
8

12
8
8

12
9
8

14
11
10

9
10
9

3
10
9

6
11
6

5

5
1

1

2
4
5

14
15
11

14
14
11

12
12
13

13
14
17

10
16
11

12
7
7

14
10
13

7
4
8

2
4
3

2005
2006
2007

2
3
7

25
27
30

13
11
5

5
6
10

9
6
7

9
11
7

9
5
6

8
7
6

10
10
7

7
9
4

2
4
3

1
1
8

2005
2006
2007

17
12
12

10
10
8

13
13
13

5
5
6

7
7
5

5
7
6

8
7
7

9
10
10

10
10
12

8
8
9

4
7
7

4
4
5

2005
2006
2007

14
15
13

13
11
11

23
25
25

7
7
7

6
6
6

4
5
6

6
7
7

7
6
6

7
6
6

7
6
6

5
5
5

1
1
2

6
6
5

16
15
14

11
10
12

10
10
10

10
10
10

9
9
9

9
9
11

10
11
12

8
10
10

8
6
5

2
3
1

7
7
7

12
12
12

14
14
14

8
8
8

8
7
8

7
8
7

8
8
8

10
9
8

9
9
9

8
8
8

5
6
6

MN
6

NY
2005
2006
2007
ND

OR

WA

WI
2005
2006
2007

1
1
1

US
2005
2006
2007

Potato Stocks
January 2009

7

4
4

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 stocks estimate, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 stocks estimate and the final
estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest
20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.”
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-ofseason estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s estimate are not different from those influencing recent
years.
The “Root Mean Square Error” for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the current estimate of 213 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.7 percent, or
approximately 5.74 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not
exceed 4.6 percent, or approximately 9.78 million cwt.
The 20-year (1988-2007) record of differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged
4.39 million cwt, ranging from 14.3 million cwt above the final to 10,000 cwt below the final. During the 20-year
period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 15 years and above 5 years.

Crop
Year

Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January 1 Stocks,
United States, 1998-2008
Preliminary
% of
Stocks
Final
1,000 Cwt

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Potato Stocks
January 2009

Percent

246,220
238,160
272,960
233,420
232,140
233,880
238,220
218,900
220,000
237,500
212,500

1,000 Cwt

100.0
99.3
99.2
103.9
100.3
100.1
100.6
99.3
97.3
101.5

8

Final
Stocks
246,230
239,910
275,270
224,680
231,490
233,590
236,700
220,500
226,100
234,100

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

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Global Agriculture & Rural America
in Transition
Food & Energy: Expectations & Realities

February 26-27, 2009
Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel
Arlington, Virginia

www.usda.gov/oce/forum
Early Bird Registration $350 until January 23, 2009 * $375 after January 23

Topical Sessions Will Address:
*Commodity Markets
*Trade & Farm Policy
*Conservation
*Risk Management
*Food Prices

*Rural America
*Food Safety & Food Security
*Energy
*Biotechnology
*World Markets