Appendix 3_Detailed Quantitative Analysis Plan

APPENDIX 3: Detailed Quantitative Analysis Plan

Research Question	Data Needed	All Tribes Operating TANF*	Data Source	Data Analysis/ Presentation**
I. EXTERNAL/CONTEXTUAL FACTORS
Economic Conditions
What are the socioeconomic conditions that affect tribal TANF clients and their communities?	Population and population change, population density, poverty, distance to nearest population center, Household composition, marriage status, with children, education, employment by industry, disabled, without health insurance	All tribal TANF sites	Census, ACS, CBP, BLS, BIA	Current and trend data on socioeconomic indicators presented in tables and figures. Data compared across tribes and time. We will explore the possibility of comparing key indicators across clusters, such as terciles of AIAN population, proximity to metro area, diversity of private industries, duration of TANF program, presence of gaming industry, etc.
What is the status of economic development/employment availability in the tribal community? How are employment opportunities in or near the service area identified, and how is the tribe incorporating and enhancing such opportunities for recipients?	Total private employment by industry and establishment size, Total private establishments by revenue, industry, and size, unemployment rate, resident workers by class (private, government, self-employed)	All tribal TANF sites	Census, ACS, CBP, BLS, BIA	Current and trend data on economic indicators presented in tables and figures. Data compared across tribes and time. We will explore the possibility of comparing key indicators across clusters, such as terciles of AIAN population, proximity to metro area, diversity of private industries, duration of TANF program, presence of gaming industry, etc.
Characteristics of the Tribal Population
To what extent do tribal members move between service areas served by tribal TANF and areas served by state TANF programs, and what is the tribe’s approach to addressing this situation?	Total participation rates, closed cases (not due to employment, marriage, 408, sanction, tribal/state policy). Further examination of available data may reveal a more accurate means of estimating this number.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Figures showing comparisons of transfer to/from state programs over time by each sample tribe.

Research Question	Data Needed	All TANF Tribes*	Data Source	Data Analysis/ Presentation**
II. TRIBAL TANF ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT
Administrative Approach
How and when were cases phased into the tribal TANF program? When did the tribe begin to operate its payroll system?	Total TANF assistance, Total budgeted for administrative purposes, Total spent by each tribe on needy families, Total by tribe on transitioning families off of TANF.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Figures displaying caseload by month over time across sample tribes. Percent administrative expenses of total budget over time.
III. TRIBAL TANF POLICIES AND PRIORITIES
TANF Priorities
How many households have gained self-sufficiency, as defined by the tribal TANF program?	Number households gaining self-sufficiency.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Percent households gaining self-sufficiency of total assisted households over time
TANF Policies
What are the time limits and how are they being implemented? To what extent have families lost eligibility due to time limits?	Closed cases due to 408 time limits.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Figures displaying time limit closes over time.
What is known about the frequency and types of sanctions?	Number sanctions, closed cases due to sanctions.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Figures displaying sanctions and sanction closures over time.
V. OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES
What is the tribe’s work participation rate and how has it changed over time?	Work participation rates for each tribe.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Figures illustrating latest work participation rates and changes over time.
How do the work requirements affect the work participation rate?	Work participation rates and participation policies.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Figures showing participation rates by participation requirements. If applicable, participation rates displayed over time where requirements have changed.
What are the employment outcomes for tribal TANF clients?	Cases closed due to employment.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures displaying closed cases due to employment.
What have been the income gains of tribal TANF clients?	Earnings of employed cases.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures showing average change in wage over time, by tribe.

Research Question	Data Needed	All TANF Tribes *	Data Source	Data Analysis/ Presentation**
What have been the skills improvements for tribal TANF clients?	Number hours per week participation in: education, employment, training, vocational education.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Average hours of participation in skills building by type by tribe over time.
How have participation rates changed?	TANF participation rates.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Figures displaying participation rates over time.
What are typical participant household characteristics?	Age, number of household members, employment, race and education levels, other benefits, child only cases.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures displaying descriptive characteristics of TANF households, by tribe and over time.
How has the amount of assistance changed over time?	Total assistance.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures showing assistance over time.
For participation in work program, what is the breakdown of type?	Participation in various work programs.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures showing breakdown of work program participation over time across all sites and by tribe.
How has amount of total TANF assistance changed over time?	Total $ TANF assistance.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures displaying total TANF assistance by tribe and over time.
How has total amount of assistance to needy families changed over time?	Total $ spent by each tribe on needy families.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures displaying total assistance to needy by tribe and over time.
How does tribe perform in transitioning households off of assistance?	Amount spent on transitioning families, Closed cases due to employment or income.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures displaying transition dollars spent per closed case, over time and by tribe. Figures displaying closed cases due to income, employment over time. Money spent on transitioning families over time.
For cases closed, what is the breakdown of reasons?	Cases closed and reason.	Sample sites	ACF monthly reports	Tables and figures showing breakdown of closure reasons over time across all sites and by tribe.
* Data available nationally will allow us to gather and present data for all 66 tribes operating TANF programs. These data will be aggregated across all tribes and disaggregated for the 4 study tribes, as well
** Further exploration of these data will be required before final analysis and presentation is decided. The above are initial approaches for analysis.

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