Supporting Statement Part A

SUPPORTING STATEMENT
U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Census Bureau
OMB Control Number 0607-0104
Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey
Forms SM-44(06)A, SM-44(06)AE, SM-44(06)AS, SM-72(06)A, SM-44(06)FA,
SM-44(06)FAE, SM-44(06)FAS, and SM-72(06)FA

Part A.

1.

Justification

Necessity of the Information Collection

This request is for approval of an extension to the Advance Monthly Retail Trade
Survey (MARTS).
The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey covers employer firms with
establishments located in the United States and classified in retail trade and/or
food services sectors as defined by the North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS). MARTS was developed in response to requests by government,
business, and other users to provide an early indication of current retail trade
activity in the United States. MARTS also provides an estimate of monthly sales
at food service establishments and drinking places.
Policymakers such as the Federal Reserve Board need to have the timeliest
estimates in order to anticipate economic trends and act accordingly. Results from
this survey provide the earliest possible look at consumer spending and are
necessary for the calculation of the personal consumption expenditures
component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Without the Advance Monthly
Retail Trade Survey, the Census Bureau’s earliest measure of retail sales is the
“preliminary” estimate from the full monthly sample released about 40 days after
the reference month. Advance estimates are released approximately 12 days after
the reference month.
We intend to introduce a new MARTS sample in Spring 2013.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts this voluntary survey under the authority of
Title 13 USC § 182.

2.

Needs and Uses

The U.S. Census Bureau tabulates the collected data to provide, with measured
reliability, statistics on United States retail sales. These sales estimates, developed

from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey are used by the Council of
Economic Advisers, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Federal Reserve
Board, and other government agencies, as well as business users in formulating
economic decisions. These estimates are especially valued by data users because
of their timeliness. There would be approximately a one month delay in the
availability of these statistics if this survey were not conducted.
Information quality is an integral part of the pre-dissemination review of the
information disseminated by the Census Bureau (fully described in the Census
Bureau’s Information Quality Guidelines). Information quality is also integral to
the information collections conducted by the Census Bureau and is incorporated
into the clearance process required by the Paperwork Reduction Act.

3.

Use of Information Technology

An automated system for check-in of returned questionnaires allows for timely
identification of responses and removal from the delinquent workload. The
automated telephone follow-up call scheduling system ensures that firms are
contacted when the data are likely to be available, based on past experience with
each firm. This process decreases the number of phone calls necessary to obtain
data from respondents.
A 24-hour facsimile machine connected to a toll free telephone line permits
respondents to fax data to our collection facility in Jeffersonville, Indiana. This
process expedites the receipt of questionnaires, thus decreasing the number of
telephone follow-up inquiries. Approximately 88% of the monthly responses are
received via fax, based on average collection technology statistics for the period
May 2011 through April 2012.
In the second half of 2012, MARTS will introduce the Centurion online reporting
system. Centurion will offer respondents an additional means to provide survey
data via the Internet. The system is designed to be secure and flexible for users.
Real-time edits will address data discrepancies and insufficiencies, ultimately
reducing the strain on telephone follow-up resources and increasing the timeliness
of responses.

4.

Efforts to Identify Duplication

Consultations with other governmental agencies, trade associations and data users
(both government and private sector) via telephone conversations, meetings, trade
journal articles, and written correspondence indicates that these data are not
available from other sources on an ongoing basis.

Annual sales and inventories by retailers are collected in the Annual Retail Trade
Survey (OMB Control Number 0607-0013), and retail sales are collected in the
quinquennial Economic Census. While the annual and quinquennial census data
provide levels of sales for retail trade, they do not provide the data points needed
to monitor the current state of the economy. The advance sales estimates are
based on early reporting of sales by a subsample of firms in the Monthly Retail
Trade Survey (MRTS) (OMB Control Number 0607-0717).

5.

Minimizing Burden

The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey is a subsample of firms in the
Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Approximately 5,000 firms are canvassed in the
MARTS sample. The design used to select the sample for the Advance Monthly
Retail Trade Survey uses the least number of sampling units required to produce
national level estimates with the desired level of reliability, thus minimizing
respondent burden. Sales data are collected from the largest firms and from a
sample of small and medium-sized firms. The selection of a new MARTS sample
every two and one-half to three years replaces a portion of the small and mediumsized firms that participate in the survey, thus redistributing reporting burden.
The Census Bureau accepts data prepared on a company’s own form. This
relieves the respondent of the burden of recording data on a preprinted
questionnaire.
Firms are not required to maintain additional records. The data requested are
generally carried in existing company records. Carefully prepared estimates are
acceptable if book figures are not available. Finally, interviewers use computer
software that provides real time edits of response data. This interface prompts
interviewers to confirm questionable responses in real time, decreasing the need
for later follow up.
Firms that report to the MARTS survey are often not required to provide sales
information for MRTS. Rather, sales data collected for MARTS are transferred
into the database used for MRTS. This ensures that respondents do not have to
provide duplicate responses.

6.

Consequences of Less Frequent Collection

Estimates from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey provide an early
indication of retail sales trends in the United States. This enables government and
business users to make important policy decisions on a timely basis. If the data
were collected less frequently, retail sales estimates would not be available for
policy decisions on a timely basis. Estimates of Gross Domestic Product may be
less accurate.

7.

Special Circumstances

The collection of data is consistent with Office of Management and
Budget (OMB) guidelines with the following exception: because the timeliness of
this survey is critical to its value as an economic indicator, respondents are asked
to reply to the questionnaire by the second business day of the month following
the reference period. Generally, respondents are able to report in the requested
time frame because the forms ask only for data items usually maintained in
existing company records. Total sales estimates are released to the public
approximately 12 days after the end of the reference month. The final data
collection closeout is on the seventh working day of the month.

8.

Consultations Outside the Agency

As required by 5 CFR 1320.8(d), the U.S. Census Bureau published a presubmission notice published in the Federal Register (74 Fed. Reg. 16833 April 2,
2012).
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the Census Bureau’s main source of
consultation for items contained within the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey
and general survey content. Dr. Dennis Fixler is the Chief Statistician at BEA,
phone number (202) 606-9607, and a primary source of consultation on the
survey. In May 2012, Dr. Fixler sent a letter in response to the notice in the
Federal Register, stating that BEA continued to strongly support the survey. That
document is included as attachment “C”.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury frequently relies on data from the Advance
Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Dr. Janice Eberly is the Assistant Secretary for
Economic Policy at the Treasury Department. In May 2012, Dr. Eberly also sent a
letter in response to the notice in the Federal Register, expressing her support for
the survey. That letter is included as attachment “D”.

9.

Paying Respondents

The Census Bureau does not pay respondents or provide them gifts for
participating in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey.

10.

Assurance of Confidentiality

Data collected in this survey are confidential under Title 13 USC §9. Only
persons sworn to uphold the confidentiality of Census Bureau information may
see the questionnaires, and may use them only for statistical purposes.
Additionally, all responses are immune from legal process. Respondents are
advised of this and are told that the survey is voluntary in a letter that
accompanies the initial questionnaire. In addition, the questionnaire indicates that
the survey is voluntary. The survey questionnaires are included as attachment
“A”. A letter sent to respondents is included as attachment “B”.

11.

Justification for Sensitive Questions

The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey requests only routine business
information that is generally available from existing company records and is not
of a sensitive nature.

12.

Estimate of Hour Burden

There are approximately 5,000 firms that are canvassed, each of which could
potentially report. Based on responses given by a cross section sample of
respondents, which includes large-size and small-size companies, the estimated
burden is 5 minutes per response, which equates to a maximum annual response
burden of 5,000 hours.
Number of
Monthly
Responses
5000

Annual Responses
Per Respondent

Hours Per
Response

Total Burden

12

.0833

5000 hrs

The estimated annual cost to respondents is $151,100 based on the median hourly
salary of $30.22 for accountants and auditors (U. S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics - Occupational Employment Statistics - May 2011.
$30.22 represents the median hourly wage of the full-time wage and salary
earnings of accountants and auditors).

13.

Estimate of Cost Burden

We do not expect respondents to incur any costs other than the time required to
respond to the survey. The information requested is of the type and scope
normally carried in company records and no special hardware or accounting
software or system is necessary to provide answers to this information collection.

Therefore, respondents are not expected to incur any capital and start-up costs or
system maintenance costs in responding. Furthermore, the purchase of outside
accounting or information collection services, if performed by the respondent, is
part of usual and customary business practices and not specifically required for
this information collection.

14.

Cost to Federal Government

The cost to the Federal Government for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade
Survey in fiscal year 2012 was expected to be $1,595,838, all borne by the Census
Bureau. We expect the fiscal 2013 budget to be at a higher level for part of the
year due to the costs associated with introducing a new sample. Following this
period of increase, we expect the budget to return to its normal level.

15.

Reason for Change in Burden

There is no anticipated change in burden between the current sample and new
sample to be introduced in Spring 2013.

16.

Project Schedule

Questionnaires are mailed to approximately 25% of the respondents five working
days before the end of the reference month and sent via facsimile to the other 75%
on the last working day of the reference month with a requested return date of the
second working day following the end of the reference month. These percentages
are based on average collection technology statistics for the period May 2011
through April 2012.
The data are collected by the National Processing Center in Jeffersonville, Indiana
by the end of the seventh working day following the reference month. The data
are tabulated, edited, analyzed, and reviewed between the fourth and eighth
working days. In exceptional circumstances, data may be reviewed and edited on
the ninth working day.
On approximately the ninth working day, a press release (“Advance Monthly
Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services”) is issued that summarizes the
estimates and provides a brief description of the survey, along with information
on the reliability of the estimates. This release is simultaneously published
electronically on the Census Bureau website and distributed in paper form to
members of the press in a designated room at Commerce Department
Headquarters.

17.

Request to Not Display Expiration Date

We wish to continue to display the expiration date.

18.

Exceptions to the Certification

There are no exceptions to the certification statement.

19.

NAICS Codes Affected

The following are the 3-digit NAICS codes for the retailers affected by the
information collection:
NAICS
Code

Description

441

Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

442

Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores

443

Electronics and Appliances Stores

444

Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers

445

Food and Beverage Stores

446

Health and Personal Care Stores

447

Gasoline Stations

448

Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores

451

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores

452

General Merchandise Stores

453

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

454

Nonstore Retailers

722

Food Services and Drinking Places