Crop Production - Release

Crop Production
Washington, D.C.

Released January 12, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Up Slightly from December
The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2009-10 season is 8.21 million tons, up slightly from the December 1 forecast but
down 11 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 135 million boxes (6.08 million
tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 17 percent from last season’s final utilization. Early,
midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 69.0 million boxes (3.11 million tons), unchanged from
December but 18 percent lower than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 66.0 million boxes
(2.97 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 15 percent from the 2008-09 crop. Fruit size is
slightly above average for the early, midseason, and navel varieties, while fruit drop is slightly below average. Fruit
size remains below average for the Valencia crop. The drop rate for Valencia’s is slightly above average. This report
reflects conditions as of January 1 and is based on data collected in December 2009. It does not include any effects of
the cold weather in Florida during January.
The all orange forecast in California, at 55.0 million boxes (2.06 million tons), is unchanged from October’s forecast
but 13 percent above last season. The navel forecast is 40.0 million boxes (1.50 million tons), unchanged from the
October 1 forecast but up 16 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. California’s Valencia orange forecast is
15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 7 percent above last season. Navel harvest
progressed with good fruit size and quality reported.
The Texas all orange forecast is 1.59 million boxes (68,000 tons), up 9 percent from both October and last season. The
early and midseason forecast is 1.31 million boxes (56,000 tons), up 5 percent from October and 1 percent more than
the 2008-09 season. Texas Valencia oranges are forecast at 277,000 boxes (12,000 tons), up 39 percent from October
and 74 percent above last season.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2009-10 season is 1.60 gallons per box at
42.0 degrees Brix, down 2 percent from the December 1 forecast and down 4 percent from last season’s final yield of
1.66 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.53 gallons per box, down 4 percent from last
season’s record yield of 1.60 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is expected to total 1.70 gallons per box, 3 percent
lower than last year’s final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationship
this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.

Cr Pr 2-2 (1-10)

This report was approved on January 12, 2010.

Acting Secretary of
Agriculture
Kathleen A. Merrigan

Crop Production
January 2010

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Carol C. House

2

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Contents
Page
Grains & Hay
Hay Stocks .................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Non-citrus Fruits & Tree Nuts
Papayas.......................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Citrus Fruits
Grapefruit ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Lemons .......................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Oranges ......................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Tangelos ........................................................................................................................................................................ 5
Tangerines and Mandarins ............................................................................................................................................ 5
Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops
Potatoes ......................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Crop Comments ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
Crop Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 7
Information Contacts ................................................................................................................................................ 18
Reliability of Production Data in this Report ......................................................................................................... 17
Weather Maps ........................................................................................................................................................... 13
Weather Summary .................................................................................................................................................... 14

Crop Production
January 2010

3

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production
by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2008-2009 1
Seasonal
Group
and
State

Area
Planted

Production

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

1,000 Acres

1,000 Acres

1,000 Acres

1,000 Acres

Cwt

Cwt

1,000 Cwt

1,000 Cwt

3.5
15.4
28.5
17.4
11.1
14.5
8.4

4.0
17.8
32.6
20.0
12.6
16.0
8.8

3.5
15.4
27.9
17.0
10.9
14.0
8.0

4.0
17.5
28.9
16.5
12.4
15.0
8.3

300
450
285
285
285
180
210

280
410
266
260
275
225
235

1,050
6,930
7,952
4,845
3,107
2,520
1,680

1,120
7,175
7,700
4,290
3,410
3,375
1,951

70.3

79.2

68.8

73.7

293

289

20,132

21,321

Spring
AZ
CA
FL
Hastings
Other FL
NC
TX
Total
1

Yield

Harvested

2009 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2008-2009
Fresh Production 1

Area
Month

Oct
Nov
1

Total in Crop

Harvested

2008

2009

2008

2009

Acres

Acres

Acres

Acres

2,315
2,420

1,970
1,975

1,405
1,450

1,310
1,320

2008

2009

1,000 Pounds

1,000 Pounds

3,075
2,745

2,585
2,500

Utilized fresh production.

Crop Production
January 2010

4

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
2007-08, 2008-09 and Forecasted January 1, 2010 1
Utilized Production
Boxes

Crop and State
2007-08
1,000 Boxes

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3
AZ 4
CA
FL
TX
US
Valencia
AZ 4
CA
FL
TX
US
All
AZ 4
CA
FL
TX
US
Grapefruit
White
FL
Colored
FL
All
AZ 4
CA
FL
TX
US
Tangerines and Mandarins
AZ 5
CA 5
FL
US
Lemons
AZ
CA
US
Tangelos
FL

2008-09
2

1,000 Boxes

Utilized Production
Ton Equivalent
2009-10

2

1,000 Boxes

2

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

1,000 Tons

1,000 Tons

1,000 Tons

230
45,000
83,500
1,600
130,330

150
34,500
84,600
1,300
120,550

40,000
69,000
1,310
110,310

9
1,688
3,758
68
5,523

5
1,294
3,807
55
5,161

1,500
3,105
56
4,661

150
17,000
86,700
196
104,046

100
14,000
77,800
159
92,059

15,000
66,000
277
81,277

6
637
3,901
9
4,553

4
525
3,501
7
4,037

563
2,970
12
3,545

380
62,000
170,200
1,796
234,376

250
48,500
162,400
1,459
212,609

55,000
135,000
1,587
191,587

15
2,325
7,659
77
10,076

9
1,819
7,308
62
9,198

2,063
6,075
68
8,206

9,000

6,600

5,500

383

280

234

17,600

15,100

14,000

748

642

595

100
5,200
26,600
6,000
37,900

25
5,600
21,700
5,500
32,825

4,200
19,500
5,490
29,190

3
174
1,131
240
1,548

1
188
922
220
1,331

141
829
220
1,190

400
6,700
5,500
12,600

250
6,700
3,850
10,800

350
8,200
4,700
13,250

15
251
261
527

9
251
183
443

13
308
223
544

1,500
14,800
16,300

3,000
22,000
25,000

2,500
20,000
22,500

57
562
619

114
836
950

95
760
855

1,500

1,150

900

68

52

41

1

The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year.
2
Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines and
mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.
3
Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines
in TX and Temples in FL.
4
Estimates discontinued beginning with the 2009-10 crop year.
5
Includes tangelos and tangors.

Crop Production
January 2010

5

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,
December 1 and May 1, 2007-2009
State

Dec 1
2007

May 1

2008

1,000 Tons

2009

1,000 Tons

2008

1,000 Tons

2009

1,000 Tons

1,000 Tons

AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FL
GA
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY

1,318
260
2,700
1,890
2,400
69
8
492
1,013
2,400
1,100
973
3,500
5,465
3,312
820
160
240
74
1,700
3,140
1,459
6,662
4,530
4,205
767
57
68
580
1,674
682
4,990
1,653
6,100
1,700
1,750
6
350
7,816
2,121
13,400
1,130
228
1,705
1,335
720
3,467
1,900

1,540
475
3,020
2,380
1,975
65
20
587
1,319
2,012
1,386
1,191
3,918
5,700
4,169
921
145
431
77
1,998
3,891
1,365
7,744
3,831
4,115
1,000
70
94
600
1,453
962
4,032
1,992
4,595
1,561
2,500
10
451
7,660
3,038
8,483
1,300
175
2,174
1,182
787
3,603
1,532

1,700
500
2,900
2,400
2,500
71
29
535
1,374
2,750
1,400
1,360
3,100
5,400
4,905
710
134
350
75
1,451
3,570
1,058
8,280
4,100
4,490
1,012
45
102
570
1,582
1,523
5,500
2,013
4,435
2,200
2,400
8
590
8,290
3,219
7,700
1,330
204
1,940
1,418
938
3,021
2,040

150
36
530
250
520
8
1
66
145
300
210
93
640
1,100
186
100
27
52
12
320
535
196
900
1,025
990
90
6
5
125
283
79
1,260
165
1,600
150
500
1
55
1,930
215
4,906
215
60
226
200
92
790
240

375
50
570
470
400
9
4
58
238
450
300
185
750
1,350
465
60
18
111
12
450
790
214
2,050
590
935
170
8
26
105
420
311
700
325
1,000
270
700
1
115
1,900
552
2,100
285
37
450
350
156
950
230

US

104,089

103,658

107,222

21,585

22,065

Crop Production
January 2010

6

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009
(Domestic Units) 1
Crop

Grains & Hay
Barley
Corn for Grain 2
Corn for Silage
Hay, All
Alfalfa
All Other
Oats
Proso Millet
Rice
Rye
Sorghum for Grain 2
Sorghum for Silage
Wheat, All
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
Oilseeds
Canola
Cottonseed 3
Flaxseed
Mustard Seed
Peanuts
Rapeseed
Safflower
Soybeans for Beans
Sunflower
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops
Cotton, All
Upland
Amer-Pima
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane
Tobacco
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils
Austrian Winter Peas
Dry Edible Beans
Dry Edible Peas
Lentils
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3
Potatoes & Misc.
Coffee (HI)
Hops
Peppermint Oil
Potatoes, All
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Spearmint Oil
Sweet Potatoes
Taro (HI) 4

Area Planted

Area Harvested

2009

2010

2009

2010

1,000 Acres

1,000 Acres

1,000 Acres

1,000 Acres

3,567.0
86,482.0

3,404.0
350.0
3,135.0
1,241.0
6,633.0
59,133.0
43,311.0
2,554.0
13,268.0

37,097.0

3,113.0
79,630.0
5,605.0
59,755.0
21,227.0
38,528.0
1,379.0
293.0
3,103.0
252.0
5,520.0
254.0
49,868.0
34,485.0
2,428.0
12,955.0

827.0

814.0

317.0
51.5
1,116.0
1.0
175.0
77,451.0
2,030.0

314.0
49.8
1,081.0
0.9
165.5
76,407.0
1,953.5

9,149.2
9,007.5
141.7
1,183.2

7,690.5
7,552.0
138.5
1,145.3
877.7
354.1

20.5
1,537.5
863.3
415.0

13.7
1,463.0
837.9
407.0

1,069.8
9.0
79.2
44.5
937.1

6.3
39.7
69.8
1,045.0
8.7
73.7
43.0
919.6
20.5
103.3
0.4

106.7

1

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop
year.
Area planted for all purposes.
3
Acreage is not estimated.
4
Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
2

Crop Production
January 2010

7

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009
(Domestic Units) 1
Crop

Units

Yield
2009

Production
2010

2009

2010

1,000

1,000

Grains & Hay
Barley
Corn for Grain
Corn for Silage
Hay, All
Alfalfa
All Other
Oats
Proso Millet
Rice 2
Rye
Sorghum for Grain
Sorghum for Silage
Wheat, All
Winter
Durum
Other Spring

Bu
"
Tons
"
"
"
Bu
"
Cwt
Bu
"
Tons
Bu
"
"
"

73.0
165.2
19.3
2.47
3.35
1.98
67.5
33.7
7,085
27.8
69.4
14.5
44.4
44.2
44.9
45.1

227,323
13,151,062
108,209
147,442
71,030
76,412
93,081
9,865
219,850
6,993
382,983
3,680
2,216,171
1,522,718
109,042
584,411

Oilseeds
Canola
Cottonseed 3
Flaxseed
Mustard Seed
Peanuts
Rapeseed
Safflower
Soybeans for Beans
Sunflower

Lbs
Tons
Bu
Lbs
"
"
"
Bu
Lbs

1,811
23.6
991
3,412
1,700
1,462
44.0
1,554

1,474,130
4,178.0
7,423
49,364
3,688,350
1,530
241,970
3,361,028
3,036,460

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops
Cotton, All 2
Upland 2
Amer-Pima 2
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane
Tobacco

Bales
"
"
Tons
"
Lbs

774
763
1,353
25.8
34.5
2,325

12,401.3
12,011.0
390.3
29,519
30,265
823,290

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils
Austrian Winter Peas 2
Dry Edible Beans 2
Dry Edible Peas 2
Lentils 2
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Cwt
"
"
"
"

1,328
1,733
2,045
1,440

182
25,360
17,137
5,859
874

Potatoes & Misc.
Coffee (HI)
Hops
Peppermint Oil
Potatoes, All
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Spearmint Oil
Sweet Potatoes
Taro (HI) 3

Lbs
"
"
Cwt
"
"
"
"
Lbs
Cwt
Lbs

1,270
2,383
91
413
245
289
336
428
132
201

8,000
94,677.9
6,379
431,425
2,132
21,321
14,469
393,503
2,698
19,647
4,000

1

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop
year.
Yield in pounds.
3
Yield is not estimated.
2

Crop Production
January 2010

8

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009
(Metric Units) 1
Crop

Grains & Hay
Barley
Corn for Grain 2
Corn for Silage
Hay, All 3
Alfalfa
All Other
Oats
Proso Millet
Rice
Rye
Sorghum for Grain 2
Sorghum for Silage
Wheat, All 3
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
Oilseeds
Canola
Cottonseed 4
Flaxseed
Mustard Seed
Peanuts
Rapeseed
Safflower
Soybeans for Beans
Sunflower
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops
Cotton, All 3
Upland
Amer-Pima
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane
Tobacco
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils
Austrian Winter Peas
Dry Edible Beans
Dry Edible Peas
Lentils
Wrinkled Seed Peas 4
Potatoes & Misc.
Coffee (HI)
Hops
Peppermint Oil
Potatoes, All 3
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Spearmint Oil
Sweet Potatoes
Taro (HI) 5

Area Planted

Area Harvested

2009

2010

2009

2010

Hectares

Hectares

Hectares

Hectares

1,443,530
34,998,400

1,377,560
141,640
1,268,700
502,220
2,684,310
23,930,530
17,527,530
1,033,580
5,369,430

15,012,780

1,259,800
32,225,460
2,268,290
24,182,250
8,590,350
15,591,900
558,070
118,570
1,255,750
101,980
2,233,890
102,790
20,181,080
13,955,730
982,590
5,242,760

334,680

329,420

128,290
20,840
451,630
400
70,820
31,343,650
821,520

127,070
20,150
437,470
360
66,980
30,921,150
790,560

3,702,590
3,645,250
57,340
478,830

3,112,270
3,056,220
56,050
463,490
355,200
143,320

8,300
622,210
349,370
167,950

5,540
592,060
339,090
164,710

432,940
3,640
32,050
18,010
379,230

2,550
16,080
28,250
422,900
3,520
29,830
17,400
372,150
8,300
41,800
180

43,180

1

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop
year.
Area planted for all purposes.
3
Total may not add due to rounding.
4
Acreage is not estimated.
5
Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
2

Crop Production
January 2010

9

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009
(Metric Units) 1
Crop

Grains & Hay
Barley
Corn for Grain
Corn for Silage
Hay, All 2
Alfalfa
All Other
Oats
Proso Millet
Rice
Rye
Sorghum for Grain
Sorghum for Silage
Wheat, All 2
Winter
Durum
Other Spring

Yield
2010

2009

2010

Metric Tons

Metric Tons

Metric Tons

Metric Tons

3.93
10.37
43.28
5.53
7.50
4.45
2.42
1.89
7.94
1.74
4.35
32.48
2.99
2.97
3.02
3.03

4,949,370
334,052,360
98,165,550
133,757,130
64,437,330
69,319,800
1,351,070
223,730
9,972,230
177,630
9,728,220
3,338,440
60,314,290
41,441,590
2,967,640
15,905,060

2.03
1.48
1.11
3.82
1.91
1.64
2.96
1.74

668,650
3,790,220
188,550
22,390
1,673,010
690
109,760
91,472,190
1,377,320

0.87
0.86
1.52
57.78
77.30
2.61

2,700,070
2,615,090
84,980
26,779,190
27,455,950
373,440

1.49
1.94
2.29
1.61

8,260
1,150,310
777,320
265,760
39,640

1.42
2.67
0.10
46.27
27.47
32.43
37.71
47.96
0.15
21.32

3,630
42,950
2,890
19,569,110
96,710
967,100
656,300
17,849,000
1,220
891,170
1,810

Oilseeds
Canola
Cottonseed 3
Flaxseed
Mustard Seed
Peanuts
Rapeseed
Safflower
Soybeans for Beans
Sunflower
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops
Cotton, All 2
Upland
Amer-Pima
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane
Tobacco
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils
Austrian Winter Peas
Dry Edible Beans
Dry Edible Peas
Lentils
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3
Potatoes & Misc.
Coffee (HI)
Hops
Peppermint Oil
Potatoes, All 2
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Spearmint Oil
Sweet Potatoes
Taro (HI) 3

Production

2009

1

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop
year.
Production may not add due to rounding.
3
Yield is not estimated.
2

Crop Production
January 2010

10

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2008-2010
(Domestic Units) 1
Crop

Production

Units

Citrus 2
Grapefruit
Lemons
Oranges
Tangelos (FL)
Tangerines

Tons
"
"
"
"

Noncitrus
Apples
Apricots
Bananas (HI)
Grapes
Olives (CA)
Papayas (HI)
Peaches
Pears
Prunes, Dried (CA)
Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

1,000 Lbs
Tons
Lbs
Tons
"
Lbs
Tons
"
"
"

Nuts & Misc.
Almonds (CA) (shelled)
Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)
Pecans (in-shell)
Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)
Maple Syrup

Lbs
Tons
Lbs
Tons
Gals

2008

2009

2010

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,548
619
10,076
68
527

1,331
950
9,198
52
443

9,769.3
81.6
17,400.0
7,303.3
66.8
33,500.0
1,133.3
870.9
129.0
15.5

10,016.0
75.3

1,630,000
32.0
193,890
436.0
1,912

1,350,000
38.0
301,200
415.0
2,327

1,190
855
8,206
41
544

7,021.0
50.0
1,078.3
935.3
170.0
18.3

1

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop
year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season.
2
Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.

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Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2008-2010
(Metric Units) 1
Crop

Production
2008

2009

2010

Metric tons

Metric tons

Metric tons

Citrus 2
Grapefruit
Lemons
Oranges
Tangelos (FL)
Tangerines

1,404,320
561,550
9,140,790
61,690
478,090

1,207,460
861,830
8,344,290
47,170
401,880

Noncitrus
Apples
Apricots
Bananas (HI)
Grapes
Olives (CA)
Papayas (HI)
Peaches
Pears
Prunes, Dried (CA)
Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

4,431,280
74,040
7,890
6,625,410
60,600
15,200
1,028,120
790,020
117,030
14,060

4,543,180
68,270

Nuts & Misc.
Almonds (CA) (shelled)
Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)
Pecans (in-shell)
Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)
Maple Syrup

739,360
29,030
87,950
395,530
9,560

612,350
34,470
136,620
376,480
11,630

1,079,550
775,640
7,444,360
37,190
493,510

6,369,340
45,360
978,250
848,490
154,220
16,600

1

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop
year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season.
2
Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.

Crop Production
January 2010

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NASS, USDA

Crop Production
January 2010

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December Weather Summary
In the wake of a mild November, cold, stormy December weather stressed livestock but buried winter grains beneath a
protective blanket of snow. Monthly temperatures generally averaged 4 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit below normal across
the Plains, with early- to mid month readings falling to -40 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of Montana and below 0 degrees
Fahrenheit in eastern Colorado and much of Kansas.
Major storms struck the Nation’s mid-section on December 7-9 and 23-26, leaving late-month snow depths of 1 to
2 feet across the north-central U.S. The snow hampered rural travel across the Plains and Midwest, and necessitated
supplemental feeding for livestock. By December 20, the corn harvest was 95 percent complete, although nearly one in
three fields (32 percent) remained unharvested in North Dakota.
Farther south and east, seemingly incessant rains soaked areas from southern Texas into the southern and middle
Atlantic States. Monthly rainfall topped 20 inches in parts of the central Gulf Coast region, slowing late-season
sugarcane harvesting. In addition, the Nation’s cotton harvest was just 94 percent complete by December 20, with
Georgia and Alabama reporting 82 and 84 percent harvested, respectively. From December 18-20, major snow
accumulations (1 to 2 feet) were reported from the southern Appalachians into southern New England.
Elsewhere, beneficial precipitation fell during December from central and southern California into the Intermountain
West, while drier-than-normal conditions prevailed in the Northwest. Despite California’s precipitation, the end-ofmonth water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack stood at just 9 inches, 86 percent of normal for the date.
December Agricultural Summary
Temperatures during the month of December were well below average throughout much of the Great Basin, Rocky
Mountains, Great Plains, and into southern Texas, with several areas in the Rocky Mountains dipping to 10 degrees or
more below normal. Elsewhere, temperatures were near normal. Strong winter storm systems delivered above average
precipitation to the Great Basin, the northern and central Great Plains, Corn Belt, and the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, with
numerous locations receiving total accumulations greater than 200 percent of normal. Elsewhere, the Pacific Northwest
and southern Great Plains were abnormally dry.
As December began and when weather conditions were conducive, producers in most of the 18 major corn-producing
States were busy harvesting their remaining 2009 crop. Mostly dry weather in the Dakotas at the start of the month
promoted a rapid harvest pace with 13 percent or more of the crop combined from November 29 to December 6.
Harvest continued throughout much of December in all estimating States except North Carolina and Texas where
harvest was complete by December 6. Nationally, harvest had advanced to 95 percent complete by December 20, over
3 weeks behind normal.
By December 6, sorghum harvest was complete on 94 percent of the Nation’s acreage, with progress in Kansas, the
largest sorghum-producing State, over 2 weeks behind normal. With the exception of Arkansas, Louisiana, and New
Mexico, where harvest was complete, progress remained active in all estimating States.
Emergence of the 2010 winter wheat crop reached 93 percent complete by December 6 and was complete or nearly
complete in most estimating States. In California, emergence was evident on 78 percent of the acreage, well ahead of
the 5-year average. Delays of 1 week or more existed in Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina. Overall, 63 percent of
the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on December 6.
As the calendar rolled to December, sunflower harvest was most active in Kansas where dry weather provided ample
time for fieldwork. By December 6, producers Nationwide had harvested 94 percent of the 2009 crop, 12 days behind
normal.
As the month began, peanut harvest remained slow in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Oklahoma as producers
continued to battle abnormally wet fields that had plagued them throughout much of the season. Nationally, 94 percent
of the crop was dug and combined by December 6.
As of December 6, cotton producers had harvested 88 percent of their crop. During the next 7 days, just 3 percent of
the crop was harvested. While producers in Kansas made excellent progress, harvesting 16 percent of their acreage
from December 7 to December 13, rainfall hampered fieldwork in Alabama, where progress remained well behind

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normal. By December 20, harvest was complete or nearly complete in all estimating States except Alabama, Georgia,
Kansas, and Oklahoma. Nationally, 94 percent of the crop was harvested.
Crop Comments
Spring Potatoes: Production for 2009 is estimated at 21.3 million cwt, unchanged from the May 1 forecast but
6 percent higher than 2008. Area harvested totaled at 73,700 acres, up slightly from the previous forecast and 7 percent
above 2008. The average yield of 289 cwt per acre is down 2 cwt from the May 1 forecast and 4 cwt lower than 2008.
Florida’s production is estimated at 7.70 million cwt, down 2 percent from the May 1 forecast and 3 percent below the
2008 production. Heavy rains interrupted harvest, which resulted in lower than normal yields. In California, production
increased 4 percent from last year. Growers in North Carolina produced 34 percent more spring potatoes than in the
previous year due to a yield increase of 45 cwt per acre. Most growers reported excellent growing conditions with
better than average yields. Production in Texas increased 16 percent from 2008 and Arizona production increased
7 percent from last year.
Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.50 million pounds for November 2009, down 3 percent
from October and 9 percent lower than a year ago. Total crop area for November is estimated at 1,975 acres, up
slightly from October but 18 percent below November 2008. Harvested area totaled 1,320 acres, up 1 percent from the
previous month but 9 percent lower than last year. Cooler temperatures in November slowed fruit development.
Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2009-10 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.19 million tons, down 2 percent from the
December 1 forecast and down 11 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. Florida’s grapefruit production is forecast
at 19.5 million boxes (829,000 tons), down 2 percent from the December 1 forecast and 10 percent below last season.
The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.50 million boxes (234,000 tons), down 5 percent from December and
down 17 percent from the previous year. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 14.0 million boxes (595,000 tons), is
unchanged from the December 1 forecast but 7 percent lower than last season. White grapefruit size is measuring
below average.
The Texas grapefruit production forecast is 5.49 million boxes (220,000 tons), up 4 percent from the October 1 forecast
but slightly lower than last season. Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 4.20 million boxes (141,000 tons),
down 11 percent from October and 25 percent below last season. Rio Red harvest began in the Desert Region of
California in early November.
Lemons: The forecast for the 2009-10 U.S. lemon crop is 855,000 tons, unchanged from the October 1 forecast but
down 10 percent from 2008-09. California production is forecast at 20.0 million boxes (760,000 tons), unchanged from
October but down 9 percent from last season. The California lemon harvest continued in the Desert Region and began
in the Central Valley. Lemon production in Arizona is forecast at 2.50 million boxes (95,000 tons), unchanged from
the October 1 forecast but down 17 percent from last season.
Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 900,000 boxes (41,000 tons), down 10 percent from the December 1 forecast
and down 22 percent from last season’s final production. If realized, this will be the smallest tangelo crop since 1962,
when Florida had a damaging December freeze.
Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 544,000 tons, up 8 percent from the
December 1 forecast and 23 percent above the 2008-09 crop. California’s tangerine and mandarin forecast is
8.20 million boxes (308,000 tons), up 17 percent from the October 1 forecast and 22 percent higher than last season. If
realized, this will be a record high production in California. Harvesting of Clementine, Satsuma, and Fairchild varieties
was underway. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.70 million boxes (223,000 tons), down 2 percent from the
December 1 forecast but up 22 percent from the previous season. Harvest of early tangerine varieties was nearly
complete while late variety harvest had just begun. Arizona’s tangerine forecast, at 350,000 boxes (13,000 tons), is
unchanged from October but 40 percent higher than last season.
Florida Citrus: Temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s and lows in the 30’s and 40’s were reported during the month of
December. Increased rainfall helped relieve drought conditions. Overall, the weather was beneficial to citrus progress.
Harvesting of Murcott tangerines has begun. Weekly navel orange harvesting picked up in early December but dropped
off at the end of the month.

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Most of the processing plants have opened and are mainly receiving early and midseason oranges and grapefruit.
Grove activity included limited herbicide applications and mowing. Grove caretakers continued to survey groves for
greening, removed affected trees, and sprayed trees for citrus psyllid control.
Arizona Citrus: Lemon harvest began in early September. Harvested fruit was reported to be larger than average.
Tangerine harvest started in November with good quality being reported.
California Citrus: Harvest of navel oranges, Satsuma and Clementine mandarins, grapefruit, and lemons continued.
In citrus orchards along the coast and in the Central Valley, helicopters and wind machines were deployed to increase
air circulation to combat freezing temperatures in mid-December. Growers also used orchard heaters and ran irrigation
water to limit the drop in temperature. The extent of damage was still being assessed. Normal spraying and
maintenance continued in citrus orchards.
California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape and pomegranate harvests were complete. Grape growers were
pruning, irrigating, cultivating, and removing old vines. The extent of frost damage due to cold mid-December
temperatures was still being determined but damage appeared to be localized to small areas. Almond hulling and
stockpiling was completed in early-December. Nut trees began entering dormancy by the end of the month.
Hay Stocks on Farms: All hay stored on farms December 1, 2009 totaled 107 million tons, up 3 percent from a year
ago. Disappearance from May-December 2009 totaled 62.3 million tons, compared with 64.2 million tons for the same
period a year ago.
Compared with December 1, 2008, hay stocks increased in the Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, northern Great
Plains, and the Southeast with the exception of Florida. Higher hay production and lower cattle inventories contributed
to the higher hay stocks on December 1. Stocks in North Carolina and Delaware showed the largest increases with
58 and 45 percent, respectively. The southern Great Plains and Great Lake States showed decreases in stocks for 2009.

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Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast
Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which
produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based
on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or
special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the
previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and
packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement
survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas
were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural
Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1
forecast.
Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month
throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including
information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square
Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production
forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage
deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root
Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from
those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent. However, if you exclude
the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is
3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or
below the final estimates by more than 4.8 percent, or 3.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.2 percent, or 6.1 percent excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged
373,000 tons (339,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 64,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (64,000 tons to
638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate
7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not
imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

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Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information.

Lance Honig, Chief .................................................................................................................. (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Jacqueline Moore, Head ...................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice ........................................................................... (202) 720-7688
Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings ............................................................ (202) 720-5944
Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats, Sorghum ................................................................. (202) 690-3234
Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed ............................................. (202) 720-9526
Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye ................................................................................. (202) 720-8068
Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops ........................................... (202) 720-7621
Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds ..................................... (202) 720-7369

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head ................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits ............................. (202) 720-2127
Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables,
Onions, Strawberries ......................................................... (202) 720-2157
Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums,
Prunes, Tobacco .................................................................. (202) 720-4288
Michael Jacobsen - Berries, Cranberries ............................................................. (202) 720-9085
Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery,
Tree Nuts ............................................................................ (202) 720-4215
Tierra Mobley - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes .......................................................... (202) 720-4285
Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas,
Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,
Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ............................................... (202) 720-3250
Kim Ritchie - Hops ............................................................................................. (360) 902-1940

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Sustainable Agriculture
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