Potato Stocks Release

Potato Stocks
ISSN: 1949-1565

Released April 17, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Potato Stocks Up 4 Percent From April 2011
The 13 major potato States held 116 million cwt of potatoes in storage April 1, 2012, up 4 percent from a year ago.
Potatoes in storage accounted for 30 percent of the 2011 fall storage States' production, one percentage point below
April 1, 2011. Potato disappearance, at 264 million cwt, was 7 percent above April 1, 2011. Season-to-date shrink and
loss, at 22.8 million cwt, was up 12 percent from the same date in 2011. Processors in the 9 major States have used
142 million cwt of potatoes this season, up 11 percent from the same period last year. Dehydrating usage accounted for
28.1 million cwt of the total processing, up 45 percent from last year.

Fall Potato Production and Stocks – 13 Major States: April 1, 2011-2012
[Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2011 totaled 23.6 million cwt]
Crop of 2010
State

Crop of 2011

Production

Stocks
April 1,
2011

April stocks
as a percent
of
production

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(percent)

Production

Stocks
February 1,
2012

Stocks
April 1,
2012

April stocks
as a percent
of
production

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(percent)

California ...........
Colorado ............
Idaho .................
Maine ................
Michigan ............
Minnesota ..........
Montana ............
Nebraska ...........
New York ...........
North Dakota .....

2,828
21,528
112,970
15,892
15,660
17,010
3,673
7,719
5,120
22,000

600
7,200
41,000
5,900
2,300
5,000
2,300
2,100
600
5,900

21
33
36
37
15
29
63
27
12
27

4,128
21,291
127,070
14,310
15,180
16,685
3,795
7,800
4,050
18,865

1,700
11,800
67,500
7,400
4,700
8,300
3,500
3,600
1,200
9,300

850
7,700
44,000
4,400
1,600
5,000
2,100
2,100
500
5,600

21
36
35
31
11
30
55
27
12
30

Oregon ..............
Washington .......
Wisconsin ..........

20,058
88,440
24,293

7,700
25,200
5,200

38
28
21

23,342
98,400
25,000

13,000
44,000
10,500

8,000
29,000
5,000

34
29
20

Total ..................

357,191

111,000

31

379,916

186,500

115,850

30

Klamath Basin 1 .

(NA)

1,200

(NA)

(NA)

3,600

1,800

(NA)

(NA) Not available.
1
Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Included in the 13 States total.

Fall Potato Production and Stocks – 13 Major States: 2002-2011
[For 2002-2004, data accounts for 15 major producing States. Beginning in 2005 data accounts for 13 major producing States]
Crop
year

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Stocks
Production

December 1

January 1

February 1

March 1

April 1

May 1

June 1

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........
..........

407,085
403,566
404,017
378,732
389,527
397,753
369,866
383,962
357,191
379,916

264,485
267,900
271,100
253,800
258,900
265,500
243,700
265,800
240,200
250,000

231,490
233,590
236,700
220,500
225,800
232,300
213,200
234,300
209,400
(NA)

199,020
200,230
203,490
189,100
192,200
199,300
183,900
203,500
180,300
186,500

165,210
166,280
168,020
155,500
159,500
163,400
152,700
169,700
148,500
(NA)

125,770
126,110
128,900
115,700
120,900
125,500
115,800
128,700
111,000
115,850

83,040
85,000
88,550
75,900
79,050
83,960
78,100
89,610
72,000

45,880
46,020
51,700
41,560
44,460
50,420
45,300
55,120
41,320

(NA) Not available.

Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing, 9 States: 2009-2011
[Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced]
State and
crop year

To
December 1

To
January 1

To
February 1

To
March 1

To
April 1

To
May 1

To
June 1

Season

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

(1,000 cwt)

Idaho and Oregon, Malheur
2009 ............................................
2010 ............................................
2011 ............................................

23,110
21,040
28,060

29,180
26,840
34,800

35,170
32,700
41,800

42,050
39,240
49,460

49,200
46,180
56,680

56,100
52,830

62,930
59,440

79,400
70,050

Maine 1
2009 ............................................
2010 ............................................
2011 ............................................

1,575
1,860
1,860

2,060
2,390
2,365

2,680
3,000
3,070

3,265
3,620
3,665

3,915
4,320
4,320

4,550
4,980

5,260
5,645

7,160
7,490

Washington and Oregon, Other
2009 ............................................
2010 ............................................
2011 ............................................

25,395
27,670
31,745

31,245
33,570
38,160

36,530
38,815
44,465

43,780
46,700
51,620

50,130
53,660
58,505

56,700
60,145

64,805
67,655

75,690
77,940

Other States 2
2009 ............................................
2010 ............................................
2011 ............................................

10,865
11,820
11,215

13,565
14,785
14,180

16,305
17,435
16,915

18,995
20,370
19,305

21,600
23,215
22,260

24,355
25,775

27,375
28,690

34,240
35,430

Total
2009 ............................................
2010 ............................................
2011 ............................................

60,945
62,390
72,880

76,050
77,585
89,505

90,685
91,950
106,250

108,090
109,930
124,050

124,845
127,375
141,765

141,705
143,730

160,370
161,430

196,490
190,910

Dehydrated 3
2009 ............................................
2010 ............................................
2011 ............................................

10,985
7,960
13,375

14,035
10,795
16,845

17,150
13,645
20,875

19,895
16,485
24,410

23,155
19,415
28,065

26,630
22,740

30,045
25,855

38,915
32,700

1

Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips.
Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in
Wisconsin.
3
Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.
2

Potato Shrinkage and Loss – 13 Fall Storage States: 2008-2011
Crop
year

2008
2009
2010
2011

2

.........
.........
.........
.........

To
December 1

To
January 1

To
February 1

To
March 1

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

(million cwt)

12.7
14.3
12.7
13.7

14.9
16.5
14.7
16.4

16.8
18.8
16.6
18.8

To
April 1

18.7
21.1
18.6
20.8

To
May 1

(million cwt)
20.6
24.4
20.4
22.8

To
June 1

(million cwt)
22.3
26.5
22.1

(million cwt)
23.8
28.5
23.3

Potato Stocks (April 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall potato producing States, which account for
nearly 89 percent of the United States all potato production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are contacted
during the months of December, February, April and June to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the
month, as well as shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine,
Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin).
Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys along with federal administrative data is
used to establish estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates.
Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the previous estimating period are subject to
revision based on late and/or updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information available, including
disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the
Potatoes Annual Summary.
Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding potato stocks are not
included in the sample. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation
for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly,
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported
data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate
is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year
period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error”. Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season
estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 4.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current estimate of 116 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.3 percent, or
approximately 4.98 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
7.5 percent, or approximately 8.69 million cwt.
Changes between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 3.78 million
cwt, ranging from 300,000 cwt to 12.8 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the
final estimate 13 times and above 7 times.
Fall Potato Preliminary and Final April 1 Stocks – United States: 2001-2011 Crop Years
Crop
year

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Preliminary
stocks

Percent of
final

Final
stocks

(1,000 cwt)

(percent)

(1,000 cwt)

..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................
..................

128,930
125,030
126,410
129,620
113,900
113,600
133,600
114,550
129,100
105,600
115,850

107.5
99.4
100.2
100.6
98.4
94.0
106.5
98.9
100.3
95.1
(NA)

119,950
125,770
126,110
128,900
115,700
120,900
125,500
115,800
128,700
111,000
(NA)

(NA) Not available.

Potato Stocks (April 2012)
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

3

Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch ............................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127
Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section .................................................... (202) 720-2127
Debbie Flippin – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.............................................. (202) 720-2157
Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ........................................................ (202) 720-4288
Chris Hawthorn – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits ................................................. (202) 720-5412
Dave Losh – Hops .................................................................................................................................... (360) 709-2400
Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mints,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ............................................................. (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ........................................................ (202) 720-4285
Erika White – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ................................................................ (202) 720-4215

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